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jhu72
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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Trump loses another court case. State Department ordered to start producing documentation on Ukraine dust up.
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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jhu72 wrote: Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:30 pm So according to PBS, Syrian authorities are claiming up to 800 ISIS prisoners have now been released. Amb Jefferies claims only dozens. How he would know, no one seems to know.
The estimate is now 100 (out of over 10,000 IS prisoners). Nicolle Wallace is terrified.
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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Putin's the winner. His prize = Syria.

I say again : Our withdrawal from Syria was inevitable

...but on our way out, our battle plan to sieze Syria's oil fields for our SDF allies.
This will be quite a logistical feat -- how do we get 30 tanks there ?
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-us-h ... al-1467350

A senior Pentagon official told Newsweek Wednesday that the United States is seeking—pending White House approval—to deploy half of an Army armored brigade combat team battalion that includes as many as 30 Abrams tanks alongside personnel to eastern Syria, where lucrative oil fields are under the control of a mostly Kurdish force involved in the U.S.-led fight against the Islamic State militant group (ISIS). The Pentagon-backed militia, called the Syrian Democratic Forces and dominated by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), will continue to be involved in securing these oil fields, the official said.

The president did, however, suggest Wednesday he would keep troops in the small southwestern garrison of Al-Tanf, as well as across crucial oil fields once seized by Syrian insurgents and, later ISIS, before being claimed by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.

"We've secured the oil and, therefore, a small number of U.S. troops will remain in the area, where they have the oil," Trump said at the White House. "And we're going to be protecting it, and we'll be deciding what we're going to do with it in the future."

...the Pentagon referred to the following comments made Monday by Defense Secretary Mark Esper.

"We have troops in towns in...northeast Syria that are located next to the oil fields. The troops in those towns are not in the present phase of withdrawal," Esper told a joint press conference at the Pentagon.

"This withdrawal [of U.S. forces] will take weeks, not days. Until that time, our forces will remain in the towns that are located near the oil fields. The purpose of those forces⁠—a purpose of those forces, working with the SDF, is to deny access to those oil fields by ISIS," he added.
How many of the Kurds newly aroused supporters in Congress & the MSM will rally to the cause when Trump floats the idea of sending in the tanks?
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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old salt wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:45 pm This will be quite a logistical feat -- how do we get 30 tanks there ?
You're saying that we don't have "permission", right? That's what you mean by "logistical" problem, right?
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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a fan wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:09 am
old salt wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:45 pm This will be quite a logistical feat -- how do we get 30 tanks there ?
You're saying that we don't have "permission", right? That's what you mean by "logistical" problem, right?
How do we get 30 Abrams tanks into landlocked E Syria ? It would take 30 C-17 flights & I'm not sure where you'd land 'em.
They'd have to be transported overland by semi-truck hauler. ...& that's just the tanks.
1/2 of a BCT would probably have 30 Bradley fighting vehicles too.
Turkey won't let 'em in. Via Israel & Jordan would be a PR nightmare. All the way up from Kuwait is a long haul across Iraq, if the Iraqis give permission.
Maybe offload them at a Red Sea port & hail them across the Saudi desert.

WT# do we need an Armored BCT for ? Running tank battles with Syrian (or Russian) tanks, just to hold some piddly oil fields for the SDF to sell oil to Assad. It sounds like a plan to appeal to Trump's talking points, in order to keep a residual force to keep the SDF as our allies, going after ISIS & holding their prisoners. The oil fields are near where we fight ISIS & our SDF allies are positioned to block Assad's forces from taking the oil fields.
I'd think we could do it with a light Special Forces footprint & air support. It might just be the Stryker Brigade (+ MRAPS & HMMWVs) we just pulled out to Iraq, supplemented by a tank company.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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It's a permission thing. That's different.

Was just asking. Thanks.
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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a fan wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 2:20 am It's a permission thing. That's different.

Was just asking. Thanks.
Permission AND overland distance. Typically you land armored vehicles at a port then move them forward via road or rail,
or you have them garrisoned near where they're going to fight. You've got to maintain them & fuel them too. It's a big deal to get them to E Syria,
You use tanks in the vanguard of a big invasion force or to defend their home area. They're not well suited to a light, inland expeditionary force.
jhu72
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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foreverlax
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by foreverlax »

old salt wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2019 8:40 pm
jhu72 wrote: Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:30 pm So according to PBS, Syrian authorities are claiming up to 800 ISIS prisoners have now been released. Amb Jefferies claims only dozens. How he would know, no one seems to know.
The estimate is now 100 (out of over 10,000 IS prisoners). Nicolle Wallace is terrified.
Comment from the CiC
ISIS is under very, very strict lock and key, and the detention facilities are being strongly maintained. There were a few that got out — a small number, relatively speaking — and they’ve been largely recaptured.
Ah, no they have not.
We also expect Turkey to abide by its commitment regarding ISIS. As a backup to the Kurds watching over them, should something happen, Turkey is there to grab them.
Great, our global war on islamic terror is being faught by Turkey on our behalf.
Further, we implore European countries to come and take those fighters that the U.S. captured and bring them back to their countries for incarceration and for trial. Until just recently, Europe has been very unresponsive in doing what they should have been doing for a long time. Now is their chance to finally act.
Fighters by country - Russia/5000, Saudia Arabia/3244, Turkey/3000, France/Germany/UK/Spain/Italy/4057 total.

Guess the 10k Kurds that died in the fight had nothing to do with the "capturing" WE did.

The last administration said, “Assad must go.” They could’ve easily produced that outcome, but they didn’t.
IF it was soooo easy, why didn't Trump handle it?
It enabled them to get out, to go and move, really, just a few miles in a slightly different direction.
Millions of Kurds have been displaced, what's another 150,000 more, as a direct result of Trump.
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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Millions of Kurds have been displaced, what's another 150,000 more, as a direct result of Trump.
As a direct result of Trump ? ...Assad, Erdogan & Putin had a bit to do with it.

So far, the bloodletting & displacement have been far less than previous "ceasefires" in the Syrian civil war.
Based on the Russia-Turkey-Syria agreement, fears of "genocide" & ethnic cleansing appear (so far) to be overstated.
Here's a good description of the details of the agreement :
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russ ... new-accord

Putin's the big winner ? Russian MP's now get to be the Border Patrol along Syria's entire N border, keeping the PKK out of Turkey.
Putin & Russia are now Assad's major benefactor for the reconstruction of Syria & the resettlement of millions of refugees & displaced persons.
Congrats to Vlad.

If the SDF remain a coherent force, allied with the US in fighting IS, especially if they control the oil fields, they're in a good position to negotiate with Assad for a measure of autonomy. They should remain out of Turkey's reach, so long as their fighters stay at least 6 mi S of the Turkish border, except for the 75 mi stretch where the Turks control up to 20 mi into Syria, which are majority Arab (not Kurdish) areas.

It could have been much, much worse (so far). Erdogan wanted a way out & a reason to stop. He still gets the pre-election domestic political victory.
Trinity
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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“The US president just told the Kurdish people to uproot from their homeland - while under fire in a war he approved - and move to the "oil region," a hostile, mostly desert area with an Arab population, where Kurds are NOT welcome and have never lived.”
NBC News Richard Engel.
“I don’t take responsibility at all.” —Donald J Trump
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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old salt wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 11:51 am
Millions of Kurds have been displaced, what's another 150,000 more, as a direct result of Trump.
As a direct result of Trump ? ...Assad, Erdogan & Putin had a bit to do with it.
That's what I said about Obama when he took our troops out "early".

You disagreed, to put it mildly. What changed your stance on this sort of thing?
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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Trinity wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:11 pm “The US president just told the Kurdish people to uproot from their homeland - while under fire in a war he approved - and move to the "oil region," a hostile, mostly desert area with an Arab population, where Kurds are NOT welcome and have never lived.”
NBC News Richard Engel.
Only the SDF fighters need to move below the 6 mile border patrol zone (except for the 75 mi x 25 mi Arab majority enclave).
I doubt that Kurds in that neighborhood are watching MSNBC.
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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a fan wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:29 pm
old salt wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 11:51 am
Millions of Kurds have been displaced, what's another 150,000 more, as a direct result of Trump.
As a direct result of Trump ? ...Assad, Erdogan & Putin had a bit to do with it.
That's what I said about Obama when he took our troops out "early".

You disagreed, to put it mildly. What changed your stance on this sort of thing?
I'm not getting sucked into another false choice vortex.
In Syria, we took out our Border Patrol peacekeepers.
We're leaving a Residual Force to fight IS (where they actually are)
& to block the highway to Iran.

We'll still be overhead with air support.
BHO wouldn't even send drones to resist the IS JV invasion of Iraq,
or resupply Iraq's Hellfire missiles.
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by ToastDunk »

For northern Syrians who endured ISIS, U.S. withdrawal means a new struggle to survive
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/for-n ... to-survive

No one understands the area quite like Trump:

"They've got a lot of sand over there," Trump continued. "So there's a lot of sand that they can play with." — President Donald J. Trump, Oct. 16

"Let someone else fight over this long bloodstained sand"— President Donald J. Trump, Oct. 23
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by foreverlax »

old salt wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:50 pm
a fan wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:29 pm
old salt wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 11:51 am
Millions of Kurds have been displaced, what's another 150,000 more, as a direct result of Trump.
As a direct result of Trump ? ...Assad, Erdogan & Putin had a bit to do with it.
That's what I said about Obama when he took our troops out "early".

You disagreed, to put it mildly. What changed your stance on this sort of thing?
I'm not getting sucked into another false choice vortex.
In Syria, we took out our Border Patrol peacekeepers.
We're leaving a Residual Force to fight IS (where they actually are)
& to block the highway to Iran.

We'll still be overhead with air support.
BHO wouldn't even send drones to resist the IS JV invasion of Iraq,
or resupply Iraq's Hellfire missiles.
Trump said they are coming home, all the IS fighters have been captured and Turkey is now guarding them.

It all worked out as he planned. :roll:

So a "false choice vortex" is your explanation for your hypocrisy?
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by old salt »

foreverlax wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 1:06 pm
old salt wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:50 pm
a fan wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:29 pm
old salt wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 11:51 am
Millions of Kurds have been displaced, what's another 150,000 more, as a direct result of Trump.
As a direct result of Trump ? ...Assad, Erdogan & Putin had a bit to do with it.
That's what I said about Obama when he took our troops out "early".

You disagreed, to put it mildly. What changed your stance on this sort of thing?
I'm not getting sucked into another false choice vortex.
In Syria, we took out our Border Patrol peacekeepers.
We're leaving a Residual Force to fight IS (where they actually are)
& to block the highway to Iran.

We'll still be overhead with air support.
BHO wouldn't even send drones to resist the IS JV invasion of Iraq,
or resupply Iraq's Hellfire missiles.
Trump said they are coming home, all the IS fighters have been captured and Turkey is now guarding them.

It all worked out as he planned. :roll:

So a "false choice vortex" is your explanation for your hypocrisy?
.:roll:. ...try to have an adult conversation.
I give you credit for being smart enough to not to take what Trump says at face value.
He's speaking in terms that are understood by the unwashed masses you look down your nose upon.
You're also smart enough to understand the difference in our posture in Iraq @ 2010 vs Syria @ 2019.
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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old salt wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:45 pm Putin's the winner. His prize = Syria.

I say again : Our withdrawal from Syria was inevitable

...but on our way out, our battle plan to sieze Syria's oil fields for our SDF allies.
This will be quite a logistical feat -- how do we get 30 tanks there ?
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-us-h ... al-1467350

A senior Pentagon official told Newsweek Wednesday that the United States is seeking—pending White House approval—to deploy half of an Army armored brigade combat team battalion that includes as many as 30 Abrams tanks alongside personnel to eastern Syria, where lucrative oil fields are under the control of a mostly Kurdish force involved in the U.S.-led fight against the Islamic State militant group (ISIS). The Pentagon-backed militia, called the Syrian Democratic Forces and dominated by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), will continue to be involved in securing these oil fields, the official said.

The president did, however, suggest Wednesday he would keep troops in the small southwestern garrison of Al-Tanf, as well as across crucial oil fields once seized by Syrian insurgents and, later ISIS, before being claimed by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.

"We've secured the oil and, therefore, a small number of U.S. troops will remain in the area, where they have the oil," Trump said at the White House. "And we're going to be protecting it, and we'll be deciding what we're going to do with it in the future."

...the Pentagon referred to the following comments made Monday by Defense Secretary Mark Esper.

"We have troops in towns in...northeast Syria that are located next to the oil fields. The troops in those towns are not in the present phase of withdrawal," Esper told a joint press conference at the Pentagon.

"This withdrawal [of U.S. forces] will take weeks, not days. Until that time, our forces will remain in the towns that are located near the oil fields. The purpose of those forces⁠—a purpose of those forces, working with the SDF, is to deny access to those oil fields by ISIS," he added.
How many of the Kurds newly aroused supporters in Congress & the MSM will rally to the cause when Trump floats the idea of sending in the tanks?
A factual grain of salt, to be taken with Newsweek's oil fields battle plan.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch_ALM/stat ... 1553208320
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old salt
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Re: The Politics of National Security

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From Jamie McIntyre, today's @dailyondefense :

In a speech and discussion this morning at the German Marshall Fund, Esper took a far different tone than his boss about the Turkish invasion of northern Syria, and the expulsion of the Kurdish forces who had been fighting ISIS with backing from the U.S.

“Turkey put us all in a very terrible situation. I mean, I think, I think the incursion was unwarranted. I think President Erdogan was fixated on making this incursion for one reason or another,” Esper said. “The U S decision to withdraw less than 50 soldiers from the zone of attack was made after it was very clear to us that Erdogan had made the decision to come across the border.”

US COULD NOT HAVE STOPPED TURKEY: Esper insisted that he had no choice but to pull U.S. troops back, and rejected criticism that keeping American forces in place, or threatening Turkey, would have prevented the assault on the Kurds.

“I was not about to put less than 50 U.S. soldiers in-between a 15,000-plus man Turkish army preceded by Turkish militia and jeopardize the lives of our young service members,” he said during the q-and-a session.

“So everybody has said, well, you could have threatened them with aircraft or you could have just kept them there in place. If I'd done that, I may be in a situation today trying to explain to the American people why I sacrificed American soldiers for that,” Esper argued. “I'm not about to throw up aircraft, and suggest that I'm going to strike a NATO ally because that's just not feasible. We'd be having a different discussion today about the future of alliance if that had happened.”

NOBODY LIKES ISIS: Asked about ceding control of the 20-mile wide border region to Turkey and Russia, Esper stressed the U.S. would seek to continue to work with the Syrian Democratic Forces in other parts of Syria.

“Our partnership with the SDF, which was a very good one and still is a very good one by the way, was about defeating ISIS,” Esper said. “Our commitment to the Kurds was not to help them establish an autonomous Kurdish state and to defend them against Turkey. And that's just the cold hard facts.”

“Look, nobody in the region likes ISIS. We don't like ISIS. Europeans don't like ISIS. Turkey doesn't like ISIS. Syria doesn't like ISIS. Russia doesn't like ISIS, there are probably parts of ISIS that doesn't like ISIS,” he continued “I think there's a lot of us have the shared mutual interest of making sure that ISIS doesn't resurge and become the threat that it was a few years ago.”
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Re: The Politics of National Security

Post by a fan »

old salt wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:50 pm
a fan wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:29 pm
old salt wrote: Thu Oct 24, 2019 11:51 am
Millions of Kurds have been displaced, what's another 150,000 more, as a direct result of Trump.
As a direct result of Trump ? ...Assad, Erdogan & Putin had a bit to do with it.
That's what I said about Obama when he took our troops out "early".

You disagreed, to put it mildly. What changed your stance on this sort of thing?
I'm not getting sucked into another false choice vortex.
Respectfully, it's too late. You blamed---multiple times----Obama for the State of Affairs in the Middle East, rather than the leaders and people in the Middle East who are causing all the problems. You blamed a speech multiple times.

I said, of course, that's ridiculous. These are adults who are responsible for their own actions.

And now here you are taking that path with Trump----pointing out that Assad, Erdogan and Putin are the ones killing Kurds. Which is, of course, 100% accurate. And, of course, was exactly what I told you when it was Obama who "left too early".


Trump is getting criticized for the exact same reason Obama was: that he left a ME country "to early". "Therefore" all the blood that followed was "his fault".

Either Trump and Obama both have blood on their hands, or neither do.

I have picked neither. And have for a decade. You don't get to blame Obama, and not Trump. Sorry.
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