The Nation's Financial Condition

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Peter Brown
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 10:47 am
Peter Brown wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 10:31 am
Farfromgeneva wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 10:04 am PB, only a fool predicts the stock market. And professionals don’t even quote or pay attention to the DOW joens, it’s an anachronistic market weighted lagging joke. S&P 500 or wilshire 5000. And if you want to track the domestic economy the best is the Russell indices. I’ve worked with guys like bill ackman and John paulsen (the latter I root for failure as he stole my and my partners work on CMBS in the crisis and lied to us about his intentions), the market is somewhere has semi perfect information. Sounds like a guy who only talks about his winners and attributes success to his own prowess. I’ve had killers and dogs along the way, smart money barbells risk these days


I am for sure no stock market expert (I don't even understand half of your post!)...I have investments in the market handled by much smarter people than I (I'm a businessman). My take on the stock market is this: it's always right, even when it's temporarily wrong. My own business is often a reflection on people's perception of the economy, and so to the extent I follow anything, it's on big trade deals and political issues that affect people's overall confidence.

My favorite hedge fund manager sent a note out last night to his humble investors that this Trump/China deal is much larger than advertised, and that we are seeing merely the beginning of the terms. I trust the guy. Let's see!
Your thought on the stock market are the exact opposite of the axiom that every institutional financial professional believes in, just so you know, which is that “the market can be wrong longer than one can stay solvent”. Markets are a forum for continuous price discovery, not an expression of equilibrium.

Are you invested with said HF Mgr? Otherwise doesn’t really matter, just cheerleading for the president, if you follow him if your money isn’t invested there.

Basically take the opposite of all the things you posted as reality. But feel free to go ahead and try to shoot the financial industry as not in touch with Main Street, you know, like the guys who own the real estate that holds industrial businesses and their supply chain.


Not sure how you are extrapolating your comments from my posts. I'll be the first to retract if I did not convey clearly.

Nevertheless, of course I'm invested with the HF manager and have been for over a decade. He runs a fund of $17bn, 200 employees, and likely the smartest guy I've ever met. One of the wealthiest guys I know, too. Like I said, I trust him.
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Peter Brown wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:56 am The market was up 500 points on Friday. Watch what happens Monday.

This deal is far larger and more substantial than what the pundits are claiming, and smart money knows it.
Nonsense.

The reason the market was up is that there's a light at the end of a tunnel for an end to tariffs. End tariffs? Market goes up. Simple.

I didn't read one piece from anyone in finance saying they're expecting China to agree to do anything that might devalue their currency, or make any material changes to IP theft.

How many hundreds of thousands of Chinese students in American Colleges and Grad Schools? You think they'll all come home? Or do you think IP theft will merrily march on?

Trump creates a disaster. Trump ends the disaster HE created. Trump then claims victory, and his fans rejoice. Rinse. Repeat.
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

You're a smart guy, PeterB.

Let's make this easy: what does Trump's China deal need to do in order for it to be called a success?

Claims that Trump and his friends made:

Eliminate the trade deficit with China

Halt IP theft

Slow GDP growth in China because we are enabling a military and ideological rival


Do you think this deal will do any of these things? And remember, we need to make up all that short term damage that Trump has done. Billions and billions in lost sales, tariffs paid by both US importers and US consumers. Disruption of supply chains. All the damage to shipping and US trucking.

What would this deal have to look like in order to make up for all that damage?
Typical Lax Dad
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Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

a fan wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:34 pm You're a smart guy, PeterB.

Let's make this easy: what does Trump's China deal need to do in order for it to be called a success?

Claims that Trump and his friends made:

Eliminate the trade deficit with China

Halt IP theft

Slow GDP growth in China because we are enabling a military and ideological rival


Do you think this deal will do any of these things? And remember, we need to make up all that short term damage that Trump has done. Billions and billions in lost sales, tariffs paid by both US importers and US consumers. Disruption of supply chains. All the damage to shipping and US trucking.

What would this deal have to look like in order to make up for all that damage?
Analysts just want some certainty. They don’t care what it is. I have seen notes from an analyst tracking Xi’s moments in 1/2 hour increments.
“I wish you would!”
ToastDunk
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by ToastDunk »

a fan wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 1:07 pm Trump creates a disaster. Trump ends the disaster HE created. Trump then claims victory, and his fans rejoice. Rinse. Repeat.
Exactly.
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:02 pm Analysts just want some certainty. They don’t care what it is. I have seen notes from an analyst tracking Xi’s moments in 1/2 hour increments.
Yeah, but that's the excuse they gave for 8 years of Obama....that Obama was seconds away from punitive taxation or whatever made up stuff the Republicans could come up with. I have NO idea why serious businessmen listened to that nonsense. And when was the last time our county/world markets had certainty? Everything is changing all the time, right?

The effects of these heavy tariffs are slowly running through American industry. It takes time to change prices, or move an entire business sector like beverage production. I have to forecast 10 years at a time because I make whiskey. What am I supposed to do about these tariffs? I've got less access to the EU for Bourbon, but not for Rye. What should I do: make more Rye? Or is that a dumb choice because the tariffs will end soon?

And Trump just hit single malt scotch and Irish Pot Still whiskey. So that means Balvenie and Redbreast, but not Johnnie Walker and Jameson as they are blended whiskies. What is that going to do to the domestic market?

Plus, we've got wholesalers making choices. Do they shift to White Claw and seltzers instead, and cash in on that?


We had execs from Brown Forman (Jack Daniels, etc.) out as Trump was threatening the tariffs. They shut down all promotions and plans for the coming year, and had all hands on deck for management to try and work out what to do about the tariffs. Think about how much economic damage this pointless Trump spasm is having at just one company, let alone all of us.

All so he can show his fans how tough he is. Sweet. Good thing we got rid of that Obama guy, who just didn't understand how business works....and got this genius at the helm.

It's about the tariffs getting removed, not simply knowing that more aren't coming. There is real damage going on down here in the trenches.
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

a fan wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:16 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:02 pm Analysts just want some certainty. They don’t care what it is. I have seen notes from an analyst tracking Xi’s moments in 1/2 hour increments.
Yeah, but that's the excuse they gave for 8 years of Obama....that Obama was seconds away from punitive taxation or whatever made up stuff the Republicans could come up with. I have NO idea why serious businessmen listened to that nonsense. And when was the last time our county/world markets had certainty? Everything is changing all the time, right?

The effects of these heavy tariffs are slowly running through American industry. It takes time to change prices, or move an entire business sector like beverage production. I have to forecast 10 years at a time because I make whiskey. What am I supposed to do about these tariffs? I've got less access to the EU for Bourbon, but not for Rye. What should I do: make more Rye? Or is that a dumb choice because the tariffs will end soon?

And Trump just hit single malt scotch and Irish Pot Still whiskey. So that means Balvenie and Redbreast, but not Johnnie Walker and Jameson as they are blended whiskies. What is that going to do to the domestic market?

Plus, we've got wholesalers making choices. Do they shift to White Claw and seltzers instead, and cash in on that?


We had execs from Brown Forman (Jack Daniels, etc.) out as Trump was threatening the tariffs. They shut down all promotions and plans for the coming year, and had all hands on deck for management to try and work out what to do about the tariffs. Think about how much economic damage this pointless Trump spasm is having at just one company, let alone all of us.

All so he can show his fans how tough he is. Sweet. Good thing we got rid of that Obama guy, who just didn't understand how business works....and got this genius at the helm.

It's about the tariffs getting removed, not simply knowing that more aren't coming. There is real damage going on down here in the trenches.
Every mid cap manufacturer that I spoke to in the 3rd quarter complained about the tariffs and the damage to the manufacturing base.....one team was thrilled when Trump was elected....happy as pigs in sh* t. You should see their faces now. Tax reform didn't even do for them what they thought it would.....Have brought back millions of dollars from overseas but use the cash to buy back stock, particularly as employees are awarded stock as compensation.
Last edited by Typical Lax Dad on Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“I wish you would!”
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

JHU72 and I have said this a million times: we don't want tax cuts. We want more customers. The 1%ers don't provide jobs and profits. Customers do. Modern Republicans and Corporate Dems don't understand that....and you can see this lack of understanding show itself as a thread running through all their economic policies.

Tax cuts help *hitty businesses that can't make a buck playing fair.

It used to be you'd build a better mousetrap in America. Now instead, you hire a lobbyist or a lawyer to DC to write laws and rules that make your business more money.

It's un-American, and these people are ruining what was economically great about our country.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:39 pm
a fan wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:16 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:02 pm Analysts just want some certainty. They don’t care what it is. I have seen notes from an analyst tracking Xi’s moments in 1/2 hour increments.
Yeah, but that's the excuse they gave for 8 years of Obama....that Obama was seconds away from punitive taxation or whatever made up stuff the Republicans could come up with. I have NO idea why serious businessmen listened to that nonsense. And when was the last time our county/world markets had certainty? Everything is changing all the time, right?

The effects of these heavy tariffs are slowly running through American industry. It takes time to change prices, or move an entire business sector like beverage production. I have to forecast 10 years at a time because I make whiskey. What am I supposed to do about these tariffs? I've got less access to the EU for Bourbon, but not for Rye. What should I do: make more Rye? Or is that a dumb choice because the tariffs will end soon?

And Trump just hit single malt scotch and Irish Pot Still whiskey. So that means Balvenie and Redbreast, but not Johnnie Walker and Jameson as they are blended whiskies. What is that going to do to the domestic market?

Plus, we've got wholesalers making choices. Do they shift to White Claw and seltzers instead, and cash in on that?


We had execs from Brown Forman (Jack Daniels, etc.) out as Trump was threatening the tariffs. They shut down all promotions and plans for the coming year, and had all hands on deck for management to try and work out what to do about the tariffs. Think about how much economic damage this pointless Trump spasm is having at just one company, let alone all of us.

All so he can show his fans how tough he is. Sweet. Good thing we got rid of that Obama guy, who just didn't understand how business works....and got this genius at the helm.

It's about the tariffs getting removed, not simply knowing that more aren't coming. There is real damage going on down here in the trenches.
Every mid cap manufacturer that I spoke to in the 3rd quarter complained about the tariffs and the damage to the manufacturing base.....one team was thrilled when Trump was elected....happy as pigs in sh* t. You should see their faces now. Tax reform didn't even do for them what they thought it would.....Have brought back millions of dollars from overseas but use the cash to buy back stock, particularly as employees are awarded stock as compensation.
By "employees" do you mean management?
Or line workers?

If you mean management, I quite agree.
That's been the pattern, and the incentive.
Farfromgeneva
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Probably meant employers.

AFan, whit claw is trash. Zima 2.0.

Keep on distilling and make some clones of Pappy and Royal lochnegar
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Peter Brown
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

a fan wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:34 pm You're a smart guy, PeterB.

Let's make this easy: what does Trump's China deal need to do in order for it to be called a success?

Claims that Trump and his friends made:

Eliminate the trade deficit with China

Halt IP theft

Slow GDP growth in China because we are enabling a military and ideological rival


Do you think this deal will do any of these things? And remember, we need to make up all that short term damage that Trump has done. Billions and billions in lost sales, tariffs paid by both US importers and US consumers. Disruption of supply chains. All the damage to shipping and US trucking.

What would this deal have to look like in order to make up for all that damage?

I'm not a 'smart guy'; trust me. Made some big mistakes in life, so I overcome by simply outworking everyone and being radically transparent with our employees, investing in them far more than any competitor, and genuinely caring about their value as humans. That is reflected in our culture and output.

So what should his deal do to be called a 'success'? Smart(er) people than I should answer that, because frankly I don't know all of the inputs. But from a 36,000 foot level, we owe China a lot in government bonds/bills? They need our consumers? China artificially depresses the yuan to keep exports up? China will overtake the US as the world's largest economy by 2025?

I'd say any deal which somehow ends in a win-win, where there are predictable outcomes for years on end, might lead to an upward push in general consumer confidence and a massive surge in global wealth. I can see a number of potential wins and I actually believe that someone like Trump (non-traditional dealmaker), with perhaps much more elan at negotiations, would be able to get to a win-win. No chance any traditional politician would even go for a win-win or even push toward what is ultimately needed (reduction in our debt, yuan devaluation, both partners moving in perfect cohesion).
Peter Brown
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

a fan wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:45 pm JHU72 and I have said this a million times: we don't want tax cuts. We want more customers. The 1%ers don't provide jobs and profits. Customers do. Modern Republicans and Corporate Dems don't understand that....and you can see this lack of understanding show itself as a thread running through all their economic policies.

Tax cuts help *hitty businesses that can't make a buck playing fair.

It used to be you'd build a better mousetrap in America. Now instead, you hire a lobbyist or a lawyer to DC to write laws and rules that make your business more money.

It's un-American, and these people are ruining what was economically great about our country.

Why are your two issues mutually exclusive? Why can't you have more tax cuts and more customers?

Florida has no state income tax, and way more residents (consumers). And their budget is fine. In fact, most states with no income taxes actually boast superb credit grades (tennessee, texas, wyoming, florida: all triple AAA).

Further, are you or the government a better manager of your income? I assume you have some charities you like to donate to, besides that sad sack program in upstate (lol). Wouldn't you prefer to donate more to those in need?

My reaction when I hear people say 'tax me more' is they are either appeasing the woke mob (Zuckerberg and so forth), which ironically makes their stocks more valuable, or they have already made their coin, so it's way easier to say 'tax them more' after you have already made it.

Incidentally, the only people higher income tax rates ever hurts are those who are working and trying to save; if you are already invested in the market or you own a company, your overall tax rates are lower because of capital gains rates. Your earned income rates stays high no matter how much stock you sell, but the blended rate dives down when you fork over 15% on a long term capital gain sale.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Peter Brown wrote: Sun Oct 13, 2019 9:53 am
a fan wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:34 pm You're a smart guy, PeterB.

Let's make this easy: what does Trump's China deal need to do in order for it to be called a success?

Claims that Trump and his friends made:

Eliminate the trade deficit with China

Halt IP theft

Slow GDP growth in China because we are enabling a military and ideological rival


Do you think this deal will do any of these things? And remember, we need to make up all that short term damage that Trump has done. Billions and billions in lost sales, tariffs paid by both US importers and US consumers. Disruption of supply chains. All the damage to shipping and US trucking.

What would this deal have to look like in order to make up for all that damage?

I'm not a 'smart guy'; trust me. Made some big mistakes in life, so I overcome by simply outworking everyone and being radically transparent with our employees, investing in them far more than any competitor, and genuinely caring about their value as humans. That is reflected in our culture and output.

So what should his deal do to be called a 'success'? Smart(er) people than I should answer that, because frankly I don't know all of the inputs. But from a 36,000 foot level, we owe China a lot in government bonds/bills? They need our consumers? China artificially depresses the yuan to keep exports up? China will overtake the US as the world's largest economy by 2025?

I'd say any deal which somehow ends in a win-win, where there are predictable outcomes for years on end, might lead to an upward push in general consumer confidence and a massive surge in global wealth. I can see a number of potential wins and I actually believe that someone like Trump (non-traditional dealmaker), with perhaps much more elan at negotiations, would be able to get to a win-win. No chance any traditional politician would even go for a win-win or even push toward what is ultimately needed (reduction in our debt, yuan devaluation, both partners moving in perfect cohesion).
PB, you're smarter than the average bear, but the hard work and transparency is indeed what matters most in building a business. Kudos.

That said, I think you're painfully under exposed to the international trade issues at play, the damaging ramifications of what Trump has done, and woefully reliant upon "elan" to deliver results that simply can't happen.

For instance, you've apparently bought into the flat out false notion that China, in the current era, is a currency manipulator.
Simply not true. Easily refuted.
Pure Trumpian BS.

The trade war that was supposedly so easy to win encouraged China to establish trading relationships with Brazil and Russia to replace our agricultural supply lines. Those countries expanded agricultural areas in response. That increased production is not going away, so our farmers will continue to face long term price pressures that would not have occurred. Not to mention all the farmers already gone bankrupt and having lost their farms during this period. More consolidation.

A return to 'normal' leaves us damaged.

But it's a heck of a lot better than continued trade wars.
Peter Brown
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Peter Brown »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sun Oct 13, 2019 10:31 am
That said, I think you're painfully under exposed to the international trade issues at play, the damaging ramifications of what Trump has done, and woefully reliant upon "elan" to deliver results that simply can't happen.

My written English stinks sometimes. I meant to say 'someone like Trump but someone who actually has elan', not that Trump had such elan. Big difference in message! A dealmaker who sees that a win-win helps everyone, that there can never be one winner. ;)
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Peter Brown wrote: Sun Oct 13, 2019 10:39 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sun Oct 13, 2019 10:31 am
That said, I think you're painfully under exposed to the international trade issues at play, the damaging ramifications of what Trump has done, and woefully reliant upon "elan" to deliver results that simply can't happen.

My written English stinks sometimes. I meant to say 'someone like Trump but someone who actually has elan', not that Trump had such elan. Big difference in message! A dealmaker who sees that a win-win helps everyone, that there can never be one winner. ;)
Ahhh, indeed that would be a good thing.

I was a Romney supporter, felt he had both the analytical smarts, integrity and gravitas.

Dunno whether that adds up to 'elan' but he was certainly someone who could work across the aisle domestically, having proven to be able to so in Massachusetts, and having shown he could rally people to support and turn around an institution that had grown bloated and corrupt (US Olympics) and who had proven he could do very large business deals that delivered results, indeed a long record of such.

Instead we get this bozo as our "businessman" POTUS...arggghh.
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sun Oct 13, 2019 8:30 am
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:39 pm
a fan wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:16 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:02 pm Analysts just want some certainty. They don’t care what it is. I have seen notes from an analyst tracking Xi’s moments in 1/2 hour increments.
Yeah, but that's the excuse they gave for 8 years of Obama....that Obama was seconds away from punitive taxation or whatever made up stuff the Republicans could come up with. I have NO idea why serious businessmen listened to that nonsense. And when was the last time our county/world markets had certainty? Everything is changing all the time, right?

The effects of these heavy tariffs are slowly running through American industry. It takes time to change prices, or move an entire business sector like beverage production. I have to forecast 10 years at a time because I make whiskey. What am I supposed to do about these tariffs? I've got less access to the EU for Bourbon, but not for Rye. What should I do: make more Rye? Or is that a dumb choice because the tariffs will end soon?

And Trump just hit single malt scotch and Irish Pot Still whiskey. So that means Balvenie and Redbreast, but not Johnnie Walker and Jameson as they are blended whiskies. What is that going to do to the domestic market?

Plus, we've got wholesalers making choices. Do they shift to White Claw and seltzers instead, and cash in on that?


We had execs from Brown Forman (Jack Daniels, etc.) out as Trump was threatening the tariffs. They shut down all promotions and plans for the coming year, and had all hands on deck for management to try and work out what to do about the tariffs. Think about how much economic damage this pointless Trump spasm is having at just one company, let alone all of us.

All so he can show his fans how tough he is. Sweet. Good thing we got rid of that Obama guy, who just didn't understand how business works....and got this genius at the helm.

It's about the tariffs getting removed, not simply knowing that more aren't coming. There is real damage going on down here in the trenches.
Every mid cap manufacturer that I spoke to in the 3rd quarter complained about the tariffs and the damage to the manufacturing base.....one team was thrilled when Trump was elected....happy as pigs in sh* t. You should see their faces now. Tax reform didn't even do for them what they thought it would.....Have brought back millions of dollars from overseas but use the cash to buy back stock, particularly as employees are awarded stock as compensation.
By "employees" do you mean management?
Or line workers?

If you mean management, I quite agree.
That's been the pattern, and the incentive.
I didn’t make the distinction...Management....
“I wish you would!”
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sun Oct 13, 2019 11:48 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Sun Oct 13, 2019 8:30 am
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:39 pm
a fan wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:16 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:02 pm Analysts just want some certainty. They don’t care what it is. I have seen notes from an analyst tracking Xi’s moments in 1/2 hour increments.
Yeah, but that's the excuse they gave for 8 years of Obama....that Obama was seconds away from punitive taxation or whatever made up stuff the Republicans could come up with. I have NO idea why serious businessmen listened to that nonsense. And when was the last time our county/world markets had certainty? Everything is changing all the time, right?

The effects of these heavy tariffs are slowly running through American industry. It takes time to change prices, or move an entire business sector like beverage production. I have to forecast 10 years at a time because I make whiskey. What am I supposed to do about these tariffs? I've got less access to the EU for Bourbon, but not for Rye. What should I do: make more Rye? Or is that a dumb choice because the tariffs will end soon?

And Trump just hit single malt scotch and Irish Pot Still whiskey. So that means Balvenie and Redbreast, but not Johnnie Walker and Jameson as they are blended whiskies. What is that going to do to the domestic market?

Plus, we've got wholesalers making choices. Do they shift to White Claw and seltzers instead, and cash in on that?


We had execs from Brown Forman (Jack Daniels, etc.) out as Trump was threatening the tariffs. They shut down all promotions and plans for the coming year, and had all hands on deck for management to try and work out what to do about the tariffs. Think about how much economic damage this pointless Trump spasm is having at just one company, let alone all of us.

All so he can show his fans how tough he is. Sweet. Good thing we got rid of that Obama guy, who just didn't understand how business works....and got this genius at the helm.

It's about the tariffs getting removed, not simply knowing that more aren't coming. There is real damage going on down here in the trenches.
Every mid cap manufacturer that I spoke to in the 3rd quarter complained about the tariffs and the damage to the manufacturing base.....one team was thrilled when Trump was elected....happy as pigs in sh* t. You should see their faces now. Tax reform didn't even do for them what they thought it would.....Have brought back millions of dollars from overseas but use the cash to buy back stock, particularly as employees are awarded stock as compensation.
By "employees" do you mean management?
Or line workers?

If you mean management, I quite agree.
That's been the pattern, and the incentive.
I didn’t make the distinction...Management....
Yup.
Line workers rarely get a slice of that pie.
a fan
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by a fan »

Peter Brown wrote: Sun Oct 13, 2019 9:59 am Why are your two issues mutually exclusive? Why can't you have more tax cuts and more customers?
Because we're running a massive deficit, and the roads and bridges I need to ship my goods are falling apart. That costs me more transportation dollars.
Peter Brown wrote: Sun Oct 13, 2019 9:59 am Florida has no state income tax, and way more residents (consumers). And their budget is fine. In fact, most states with no income taxes actually boast superb credit grades (tennessee, texas, wyoming, florida: all triple AAA).
Their budget is fine because they're propping it all up with borrowed money from the Federal government.

Who do you think pays for all the elderly in Florida's health care? Two entities----those of us in the rest of the country, shoveling money into their Medicare plans. And borrowed money. Trillions in borrowed money heading into every hospital, clinic, old folks home, and pharmacy in the State.

Get rid of that money? Lights out, baby.

The difference between myself and others who think more spending and higher taxes are needed, is that I would be OVERJOYED to cut every one of these people off. Nothing would make me happier.

Because they come CRAWLING back to the Federal government, looking for the handouts and socialism that they so despise.

How do you think the bulk of the people in FlyOver America get internet access to watch FoxNews and gripe about how socialism is bad?

That's right. Enormous Federal subsidies. Nothing would make me happier than to cut the cord. To watch rural America disappear entirely.

Because if we did that? Alllllll the complaining about handouts and socialism would disappear in under a year. Know why? Because every last one of them would move to large cities because they have no choice.
Peter Brown wrote: Sun Oct 13, 2019 9:59 am Further, are you or the government a better manager of your income? I assume you have some charities you like to donate to, besides that sad sack program in upstate (lol). Wouldn't you prefer to donate more to those in need?
The government is. It's no contest. I can put a plate of food on the table of someone in need that lives in Denver through the Food Bank of the Rockies.....but what about all those people outside of Denver? How do they get roads, schools, the internet, food, jobs? That's right. The government. Specifically, the Federal government. Cut that money, sit back and watch rural America die.

We are involved in several charities a week. Mostly we donate bottles or free tours for silent auction that can pull in thousands of dollars, believe it or not. Know what area these charities serve? Do you think they send even one penny to rural towns? Nope. They all serve Denver Metro.

So no, charities are a finger in the dike where there's no dike at all. They don't work.
Peter Brown wrote: Sun Oct 13, 2019 9:59 am My reaction when I hear people say 'tax me more' is they are either appeasing the woke mob (Zuckerberg and so forth), which ironically makes their stocks more valuable, or they have already made their coin, so it's way easier to say 'tax them more' after you have already made it.
:lol: Funny, I was thinking the same thing-----folks who want their taxes cut "got mine", so who cares if the next generation doesn't have roads, schools, or health care?

And i'm not just talking about taxing the rich more. Roughly half of Americans don't pay any Federal income taxes. Does that sound remotely sustainable to you?

And in any given year, half of American Corporations don't pay any Federal tax, because using the term loosely, they don't turn a "profit". That make sense to you?

Why is my business, for example, taxed at a rate that is well over 100% of our "profit", while Amazon pays zippo? That doesn't sound like a broken, absurdly unfair, and unsustainable method of taxation to you?

Think about that: we're not getting any Federal tax dollars from Amazon that goes to the general fund. You're hoping my little shop can make up the difference. In what world does that make sense?

Peter Brown wrote: Sun Oct 13, 2019 9:59 am Incidentally, the only people higher income tax rates ever hurts are those who are working and trying to save; if you are already invested in the market or you own a company, your overall tax rates are lower because of capital gains rates. Your earned income rates stays high no matter how much stock you sell, but the blended rate dives down when you fork over 15% on a long term capital gain sale.
This is A#1 on the list of things that need to change. Why would we tax labor at a higher rate than investment? You're literally telling workers to shut up and live in poverty.
Last edited by a fan on Sun Oct 13, 2019 5:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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holmes435
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by holmes435 »

The other side of the coin with Texas and other states with no income tax is that they make it up with higher taxes on other things.

For instance Texas has much higher property taxes.
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

holmes435 wrote: Sun Oct 13, 2019 5:16 pm The other side of the coin with Texas and other states with no income tax is that they make it up with higher taxes on other things.

For instance Texas has much higher property taxes.
My sister lives there. She has complained about all the taxes. Driving from north of Dallas to downtown gets expensive quickly. My cousin moved out there and wanted to moved back to Indiana despite the higher pay. Greater Dallas is great but there are taxes. Higher earners don’t feel the pinch as much though.
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