Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sat Oct 12, 2019 10:47 amYour thought on the stock market are the exact opposite of the axiom that every institutional financial professional believes in, just so you know, which is that “the market can be wrong longer than one can stay solvent”. Markets are a forum for continuous price discovery, not an expression of equilibrium.Peter Brown wrote: ↑Sat Oct 12, 2019 10:31 amFarfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sat Oct 12, 2019 10:04 am PB, only a fool predicts the stock market. And professionals don’t even quote or pay attention to the DOW joens, it’s an anachronistic market weighted lagging joke. S&P 500 or wilshire 5000. And if you want to track the domestic economy the best is the Russell indices. I’ve worked with guys like bill ackman and John paulsen (the latter I root for failure as he stole my and my partners work on CMBS in the crisis and lied to us about his intentions), the market is somewhere has semi perfect information. Sounds like a guy who only talks about his winners and attributes success to his own prowess. I’ve had killers and dogs along the way, smart money barbells risk these days
I am for sure no stock market expert (I don't even understand half of your post!)...I have investments in the market handled by much smarter people than I (I'm a businessman). My take on the stock market is this: it's always right, even when it's temporarily wrong. My own business is often a reflection on people's perception of the economy, and so to the extent I follow anything, it's on big trade deals and political issues that affect people's overall confidence.
My favorite hedge fund manager sent a note out last night to his humble investors that this Trump/China deal is much larger than advertised, and that we are seeing merely the beginning of the terms. I trust the guy. Let's see!
Are you invested with said HF Mgr? Otherwise doesn’t really matter, just cheerleading for the president, if you follow him if your money isn’t invested there.
Basically take the opposite of all the things you posted as reality. But feel free to go ahead and try to shoot the financial industry as not in touch with Main Street, you know, like the guys who own the real estate that holds industrial businesses and their supply chain.
Not sure how you are extrapolating your comments from my posts. I'll be the first to retract if I did not convey clearly.
Nevertheless, of course I'm invested with the HF manager and have been for over a decade. He runs a fund of $17bn, 200 employees, and likely the smartest guy I've ever met. One of the wealthiest guys I know, too. Like I said, I trust him.