2020 Elections - Trump FIRED

[a fan]

Agreed, this position is a Ds talking point. Let real market forces get it right, by taking away the .gov subsidies. All part of a fan's plan. Those working at "WMT" and getting some type of .gov support are already getting the "minimum" wage, through tax revenue.

Yep.

That's the trade for both real liberals and real conservatives. Trade a higher minimum wage for the dissolution of all poverty related aid for anyone who is able bodied and 18yo.

[runrussellrun]

How can any politician even bring up free college when our current "free" education results in this?

https://nsf.gov/nsb/sei/edTool/data/highschool-06.html

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_cnb.asp

Why the F isn't this the focus? Statistically, only half of those who go to college NOW even graduate from college.

Because that's a social problem, not an educational problem. In other words, the problem isn't the schools or the system. It's the parents/guardians and poverty that's the issue.

Do you need a college degree to be a state department employee? Work at the FBI? Be a stock broker? (in today's world )

Why is it required? Why is this requirement LEGAL ?

I heard Tom Steyer educated and funded about 3000 California residents to pass the bar exam. All were poor.......what, you (collective) didn't hear about this wonder ful story?

Plenty of pay to play learn to plumb or HVAC state/private partnerships up here in New England.

[a fan]

Again, different conversation. Frmanfan was discussing the quality of the graduates.

Sounds like Biden has a sensible plan----free Community College/Associates/Vocational training.

[HooDat]

Again, different conversation. Frmanfan was discussing the quality of the graduates.

Sounds like Biden has a sensible plan----free Community College/Associates/Vocational training.

the false promises of what a 4-year degree will get you has broken the trust between families and colleges, particularly those that were first-time college attendees.

The free CC/Associates/Vocational training is a really great concept.

Here is an interesting one for you: I have a child that is changing colleges from a great out of state public school to a great in-state public school. Problem is the decision was made about 3 months too late for the fall semester. Said child has moved to the college town (paying his own expenses), enrolled in the local community college to add some courses while waiting for his application to process for the spring. I am paying tuition. I was floored (in a positive way) when I saw what the community college charges for a class. It is ONE FIFTH what the state school will be charging!

let that sink in....

... ONE FIFTH!!!
.... 20% !!

How is that even possible?

Look at every state school and private school in the country. Urban/country/suburb. Manhattan/Lynchburg/Austin/LA. Every single public and private school is priced to within 5% of each other. Are you telling me there is no difference in the cost to provide the education? BS. I now know what the cost of delivering the education is 20% less than what they are charging! That is price fixing to the ultimate degree.

[edit to fix: "I now know that the cost of delivering the education is 80% less than what they are charging!"

[Farfromgeneva]

Just want to illustrate that there’s a ton of capital outside of .gov out there funding all sorts of things. Even if eliminating the gse’s causes some short term harm, continues existence in current form creates larger fat tail problems eventually (rather than recessions we get 08).

Don’t get too caught up in the anecdotal or too much confirmation bias. I don’t represent either “side” of these arguments and it seems like you get pretty binary soemtimes.

Well, we're discussing the .gov leaving the mortgage game completely. I think it's an understatement to say that would be disruptive.

And as I asked before: if you're an institutional investor, how can you trust that the mortgage originator did their due diligence, and know that the pile of loans in your hands are on the up and up? Yanking the .gov backing changes the risk calculus more than just a little, right?

And yet more capital is piling into it every day, begging for more because everyone needs yield. GEs pension problem points to this. I know many firms that provide DD, it’s crap, Clayton, Situs, bayview, altisource, etc.

[a fan]

That's not exactly comforting.

More yield means more risk. I thought Wall Street figured that out after 08?

Don't commit to ridiculous pensions is the solution, not expecting unobtainable yields without significantly more risk.

Again, thanks for the inside info!

[3rdPersonPlural]

I've actually dropped this into my To Do list and am replying late, but I really appreciate your input!

All I can say is that...... There’s so much capital chasing anything right now. Liquidity is undervalued. There’s plenty of capital for any type of borrower. Want a 30yr mortgage, pay floating rate because while 30yr credit risk has a long tail there’s plenty of ALM mgrs like pensions funds and insurers that need long credit risk assets to offset future liabilities.

I agree. In my current world, we can get PE guys to return calls and take meetings just by saying the four magic words: "Reliable Positive Cash Flow". There is more liquidity than there are assets, and a business with positive cash flow get's a long, hard look. Premiums are paid. You can sell a successful restaurant for maybe twice or thrice EBITDA. You (apparently) have to pay 19 X to buy a going concern like Popeyes. Scale matters.

There’s...plenty of demand and no, it wouldn’t be prime plus 700bps for a mortgage. Not even close. Banks [on the whole] make roughly a 1% ROA and 10-12% ROE.

Ah, here's where we differ. I'm talking about a 30 year fixed, not a 10/1 or less product. The stuff that cautious homebuyers insist on. Go ahead, find someone who will issue a product with a 30 year fixed term and accept the 660 FICO, slender reserves, wage supported cash flow borrower with Agency scale ratios, and you'll rule the roost.......and, yeah, maybe you'd have to structure the product at a rate closer to Prime Plus 500bps or so, because the average primary residence mortgage lasts (last time I looked) maybe 5 point something years, but without a sturdy secondary market, this would be a product that is shunned by the risk averse. You know this.

I’m less concerned about SBA because that’s venture debt, different mandate.

I've never heard SBA described that way. I've now adopted your phrase as my own. A flash of literary brilliance on your part Geneva!

But any shock would be due to the extreme change but it wouldn’t last, the markets would adjust.......

But adjust to what? Again, Fan and I (and probably you) are concerned that if the Agencies get dissolved or get banned as abruptly as the Kurds did the shock would be absorbed after a while but home values would collapse (in slow motion) and besides that huge billow of home equity, we'd lose consumer confidence, a bunch of value in the mortgage secondary market, and eventually a material segment of our GDP. Socialism will have been slain in the Housing market, but at what cost? Private capital will fill the void, but on what terms?

[Farfromgeneva]

Would said 30yr fixed have a free prepayment option? That was created with the advent of the GSEs and screws the creditor (rates go down you get your cash back and have to reinvest at lower yields, rates go up and you have an asset that’s now worth less than 100% of par due to below market yield-negative convexity). Commercial mortgages and corporate debt are all call protected.

30yr UST is currently yielding 2.05%. 30yr mortgages trade off the 10yr typically because a 0% constant prepayment rate (“CPR”) on a 30yr fully amortizing mortgage has an average life of roughly 13.5yrs. The 10yr UST is 1.55%. So you’re trying to claim that a midprime (that’s right, 660 isn’t deemed subprime these days) would price at roughly treasuries + 1000-1050bps. DIp financing is L + 500-600 with libor in the low-mid 2% range and that’s for companies in bankruptcy to have working capital while figuring out if they’re reorganize.

Owners of equity/residual cash flows of non agency RMBS that exists earn IRRs of less than 10%. Here’s a couple that would Finance 660 FICO 30yr fixed even with the negative convexity at well below 12%: angel
Oak capital, pimco, invesco Mortgage Capital, Blackrock, Cherry Hill Mortgage, basically every Mortgage reit and insurer out there. In fact I quickly checked a few resources and there’s a vibrant market for sub 700 FICO non QM fixed 30yr mortgages and its running approximately 400bps (4.00%) above GSE which is, what roughly 3.50-3.75% right now. So you’re talking 7.5-8.5% on these and in actuality at least 150-200bps of that is liquidity premium which would decrease if that market were larger and more active. That’s available info out there. It’s a cross-asset relative value world and every other country would want our mortgages with or without the “implicit”/explicit govt gty. While a 7.5-8% mortgage market, which would come down to 6-7.5% in this scenario would cause some pain and a reset but it would be less painful than the massive problems (steaming the term fat tail risk) that is created by the GSEs existence. I’ll take 90-92 & 2000-2003 over 1927 & 2007 every day of the week and twice on Sunday and that’s what I’m saying would be the world without these subsidies.

Antifragile (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile) is my working belief having played in many of these markets and businesses. This isn’t some misunderstanding of Adam smith and pretending to claim no govt involvement at all, but what we’ve got has done nothing but create larger, explosively a severe periodic risks/costs through the belief that we can derisk peoples lives and also allowed the political class to sell owning a home as some dream or failure of life as well as tying jobs to generic, non substantial college educations. As I mentioned somewhere else recently, was visiting w a buddy who’s the new dean of Temples Fox school of business and rough numbers (won’t say exact #s but he gave them to me, should be available in muni filings anyways if someone cares) that he runs the school on 40% of revenues, keeps 15% as retained and the parent school takes 45% for “whatever they do with it” as we were walking by they’re new $190mm library that increasingly doesn’t have books. This is what subsidized student debt is doing to higher ed. He firmly believes colleges will be a two tier system with the elites doing liberal arts style educating and the rest slimming down to advanced trade schools.

[a fan]

He firmly believes colleges will be a two tier system with the elites doing liberal arts style educating and the rest slimming down to advanced trade schools.

So in other words, the German model.

I graduated from a German brewing school. It's a great system. Had a Swiss classmate who told me over beer that "the problem with the American educational system is that you treat every student as if they'll be a doctor or a lawyer. Someone needs to empty the trash or clean the streets".

He wasn't wrong. But good luck telling that to a suburban American parent.

[Farfromgeneva]

Syracuse is a German brewing school??? Did the Swiss guy work as a judge and have a grandson named Spaulding?

I still need you to squirrel away any Pappy you can source for me.

[a fan]

That was my pop who attended Syracuse.

And to answer your question about the Swiss guy? Yep. One of the richest guys in the country. I was talking to a billionaire, and was too young to understand what real wealth looked like. Stayed in his family's castle in Nuremberg. It was such an old castle that it didn't have nails....if you can wrap your head around that.

But as I said, he wasn't wrong. You can't convince a suburban American parent to send their 15 year old kid to learn how to weld or learn how to wire a building. They ALL want their kids to go to a college to study "something else".

[Farfromgeneva]

This is why I’ve made a point of incurring the cost of living inside city perimeters since I escaped Tyson’s corner my first six months in the Dc area and since have lived in the cities. Can’t stand suburbs. Cool if someone wants that but I’d rather barbell and be on a mountain or in the middle of a high velocity, diverse area. Strip malls, chain restaurants and cookie cutter Pulte, Beazar, KB, etc subdivisions make me nauseous personally. It’s costly to do it my way and have had to make some tradeoffs but worth it IMO.

[runrussellrun]

That was my pop who attended Syracuse.

And to answer your question about the Swiss guy? Yep. One of the richest guys in the country. I was talking to a billionaire, and was too young to understand what real wealth looked like. Stayed in his family's castle in Nuremberg. It was such an old castle that it didn't have nails....if you can wrap your head around that.

But as I said, he wasn't wrong. You can't convince a suburban American parent to send their 15 year old kid to learn how to weld or learn how to wire a building. They ALL want their kids to go to a college to study "something else".

Path......stray..........stay.......on topic.

Liquid......cash flow.......brew school...??????? What does any of this have to do with the 2020 elections? Don't rebuke if you can't.....you know.

[Farfromgeneva]

Sorry board master dictator in your unmatched wisdom. We will all defer to your unintelligible words.

Perhaps you should create another avatar friend in lieu of finding people to agree with you.

[Peter Brown]

You can say whatever you want about AOC, and I truly do not like her more socialist economic leanings, but this lady is 100% correct calling out our idiotic mass incarceration problem in America. IMO, this is our greatest social problem today and an attack on our civil liberties, yet very few bother to understand what this problem has done to millions of American families, mostly POC.

I was just reading this morning about a young (black) man of 21 was sentenced to 10 days in jail for oversleeping for jury duty. By a white judge. Also given 1 year probation, 150 hours of community service. Only when the story got picked up by press did the judge relent and reduce the post-incarceration terms to 30 hours of community service. This BS enrages me.

This young man cares for his grandfather and has a job (had a job). Now he has a criminal record. I'd put the judge in jail if I had my way.

If Republicans do not get behind this issue soon, they will find themselves way behind the curve ball. Ironically, many on the left defend the system, in spite of their party's voters being clearly behind a recalibration of the system. MSNBC is a home for prosecutors looking to sell books. This is a system that has gone on way too long, ruined millions of families, and has corrupted the way we think of punishment and corrections.

I say, good job, AOC!

I agree on your base point, but you go wildly astray by trying to take a swing at the 'left, 'MSNBC', prosecutors on TV etc.

Misplaced target.

You're correct about judges who are racist, about a system that allows or even encourages the treatment of equivalent crimes by white defendants very differently than those of color.

My point is not about "race", though I understand why most would think so (it's the same reason most people reflexively accept all hoax crimes such as UVA, Duke, etc; it's what the bias in us want to shout to the world that we get it! we are good!). My point is about over-criminalization of normal behavior. It's revealing to me when anyone fails to note how insane it is that a kid is sentenced to 10 days in a jail for oversleeping for jury duty...21 years old young man, caring for an elderly grandparent, failing to show for jury duty... JFC.

Does it not strike you that perhaps instead of ruining this young man's up-to-now unblemished record, that a judge could instead tell him to perhaps now take two tours on jury duty, without the criminalization of him?! let's see that kid now apply for jobs, where he is denied entry because of this; TSA pre-Check....nope; mortgage application...nope! and on and on and on. (We work with some public defender offices giving exactly these kinds of folks 'second chances'; most employers won't touch these situations)

That judge just sentenced this kid to life. This is not about race, it is about civil liberty norms. Laugh at AOC, Kim Kardashian, Rand Paul (!), and John Legend as some do, but they are over the target on this issue. I hope people wake up to it. It is the civil rights issue of our time, imo.

[MDlaxfan76]

You can say whatever you want about AOC, and I truly do not like her more socialist economic leanings, but this lady is 100% correct calling out our idiotic mass incarceration problem in America. IMO, this is our greatest social problem today and an attack on our civil liberties, yet very few bother to understand what this problem has done to millions of American families, mostly POC.

I was just reading this morning about a young (black) man of 21 was sentenced to 10 days in jail for oversleeping for jury duty. By a white judge. Also given 1 year probation, 150 hours of community service. Only when the story got picked up by press did the judge relent and reduce the post-incarceration terms to 30 hours of community service. This BS enrages me.

This young man cares for his grandfather and has a job (had a job). Now he has a criminal record. I'd put the judge in jail if I had my way.

If Republicans do not get behind this issue soon, they will find themselves way behind the curve ball. Ironically, many on the left defend the system, in spite of their party's voters being clearly behind a recalibration of the system. MSNBC is a home for prosecutors looking to sell books. This is a system that has gone on way too long, ruined millions of families, and has corrupted the way we think of punishment and corrections.

I say, good job, AOC!

I agree on your base point, but you go wildly astray by trying to take a swing at the 'left, 'MSNBC', prosecutors on TV etc.

Misplaced target.

You're correct about judges who are racist, about a system that allows or even encourages the treatment of equivalent crimes by white defendants very differently than those of color.

My point is not about "race", though I understand why most would think so (it's the same reason most people reflexively accept all hoax crimes such as UVA, Duke, etc; it's what the bias in us want to shout to the world that we get it! we are good!). My point is about over-criminalization of normal behavior. It's revealing to me when anyone fails to note how insane it is that a kid is sentenced to 10 days in a jail for oversleeping for jury duty...21 years old young man, caring for an elderly grandparent, failing to show for jury duty... JFC.

Does it not strike you that perhaps instead of ruining this young man's up-to-now unblemished record, that a judge could instead tell him to perhaps now take two tours on jury duty, without the criminalization of him?! let's see that kid now apply for jobs, where he is denied entry because of this; TSA pre-Check....nope; mortgage application...nope! and on and on and on. (We work with some public defender offices giving exactly these kinds of folks 'second chances'; most employers won't touch these situations)

That judge just sentenced this kid to life. This is not about race, it is about civil liberty norms. Laugh at AOC, Kim Kardashian, Rand Paul (!), and John Legend as some do, but they are over the target on this issue. I hope people wake up to it. It is the civil rights issue of our time, imo.

I agree with you on your general point. White, black, purple, enormously bad decision by the judge.

You lose me when you seem to want to dismiss the reality that race plays an unfortunate role in how these decisions are differentially meted out. It's a reality that is ugly, hard to look in the eye. But it's real and it's been persistent, even institutionalized.

[runrussellrun]

Sorry board master dictator in your unmatched wisdom. We will all defer to your unintelligible words.

Perhaps you should create another avatar friend in lieu of finding people to agree with you.

Good advice, sounds like you may be familiar with the concept !

Agree with me on what subject? You telling me even you don't agree with others, including me, on ANY subject matter?
________________________________
Context of my comment was directed at the NEGATIVE tone this place has taken

".....you're new here..." (back turning, you're NOT welcome rhetoric )

".......sick of the whataboutism....even tho we use it all the time....."

"......stay on topic...." ..even tho we stray on every single page, every single thread.

".....we covered this already........."

[runrussellrun]

You can say whatever you want about AOC, and I truly do not like her more socialist economic leanings, but this lady is 100% correct calling out our idiotic mass incarceration problem in America. IMO, this is our greatest social problem today and an attack on our civil liberties, yet very few bother to understand what this problem has done to millions of American families, mostly POC.

I was just reading this morning about a young (black) man of 21 was sentenced to 10 days in jail for oversleeping for jury duty. By a white judge. Also given 1 year probation, 150 hours of community service. Only when the story got picked up by press did the judge relent and reduce the post-incarceration terms to 30 hours of community service. This BS enrages me.

This young man cares for his grandfather and has a job (had a job). Now he has a criminal record. I'd put the judge in jail if I had my way.

If Republicans do not get behind this issue soon, they will find themselves way behind the curve ball. Ironically, many on the left defend the system, in spite of their party's voters being clearly behind a recalibration of the system. MSNBC is a home for prosecutors looking to sell books. This is a system that has gone on way too long, ruined millions of families, and has corrupted the way we think of punishment and corrections.

I say, good job, AOC!

I agree on your base point, but you go wildly astray by trying to take a swing at the 'left, 'MSNBC', prosecutors on TV etc.

Misplaced target.

You're correct about judges who are racist, about a system that allows or even encourages the treatment of equivalent crimes by white defendants very differently than those of color.

My point is not about "race", though I understand why most would think so (it's the same reason most people reflexively accept all hoax crimes such as UVA, Duke, etc; it's what the bias in us want to shout to the world that we get it! we are good!). My point is about over-criminalization of normal behavior. It's revealing to me when anyone fails to note how insane it is that a kid is sentenced to 10 days in a jail for oversleeping for jury duty...21 years old young man, caring for an elderly grandparent, failing to show for jury duty... JFC.

Does it not strike you that perhaps instead of ruining this young man's up-to-now unblemished record, that a judge could instead tell him to perhaps now take two tours on jury duty, without the criminalization of him?! let's see that kid now apply for jobs, where he is denied entry because of this; TSA pre-Check....nope; mortgage application...nope! and on and on and on. (We work with some public defender offices giving exactly these kinds of folks 'second chances'; most employers won't touch these situations)

That judge just sentenced this kid to life. This is not about race, it is about civil liberty norms. Laugh at AOC, Kim Kardashian, Rand Paul (!), and John Legend as some do, but they are over the target on this issue. I hope people wake up to it. It is the civil rights issue of our time, imo.

PLUS PLUS. Why don't people call it what it is....it's about the POOR, not race. Hunter Biden do any brig time for snorting cocaine?

[Peter Brown]

PLUS PLUS. Why don't people call it what it is....it's about the POOR, not race. Hunter Biden do any brig time for snorting cocaine?

To some extent. But what of the people going to prison for paying off SAT takers? They are rich, in some cases really rich. Anyone here being helped by their going to prison? If you say yes, you are being disengenuous.

I have a novel idea: fine them the amount they paid the takers (or more!), take those fines and allocate to inner-city standardized test taking services. And 200 hours each helping disadvantaged youth take standardized tests. Who exactly is helped by their going to prison? Maybe think about punishment for non-violent crime in a different light?

[runrussellrun]

PLUS PLUS. Why don't people call it what it is....it's about the POOR, not race. Hunter Biden do any brig time for snorting cocaine?

To some extent. But what of the people going to prison for paying off SAT takers? They are rich, in some cases really rich. Anyone here being helped by their going to prison? If you say yes, you are being disengenuous.

I have a novel idea: fine them the amount they paid the takers (or more!), take those fines and allocate to inner-city standardized test taking services. And 200 hours each helping disadvantaged youth take standardized tests. Who exactly is helped by their going to prison? Maybe think about punishment for non-violent crime in a different light?

It's interesting that the top flight Universities aren't getting fined, jail time, bad reps, etc. As far as I can tell.

Yale or Georgetown losing Federal welfare dollars? If not, why?