Johns Hopkins 2020

[OCanada]

BFO for almost every school

[HopFan16]

I hope the post about Jaronski was mostly tongue in cheek because the other fact that has to be taken into account was competition. It would appear that a team that has 14 players but goes 17-4 and undefeated in its league is an interesting fact to say the least. I did notice on the Friends League website that ANC played Hill Academy and lost 11-1. Invoking Harry's name when discussing a kid that hasn't even had a fall practice is beyond comprehension if done seriously - but that is the nature of this particular individual - hyperbole knows no bounds.

I'm as excited to find the next John Crawley, Pat Fraser, kuuuuuhn, revelation out of nowhere as you are, but the reality we've seen is that as we identified last spring it's likely that of the 22 or so guys that will see meaningful minutes in game 1 next spring 17 of them played in the horrendous loss to notre dame and according to many of you 5 of the best are the ones that graduated.

Wait, Kuhn is a "revelation" now? Last I heard, he was completely worthless and you were happy to see him (and others) graduate.

Speaking of that senior class—not sure if this is already common knowledge or not but Coulter is NOT returning. So outside of Hubler we've got pretty much no real experience at SSDM. One or two of the freshmen may be forced to play there out of necessity, or perhaps they'll convert another pole like they did with McManus. The bright side is that the position will probably be bigger than it has been, by default. (Though Chambers, from what I've heard—while very good at the position in high school—is not a big kid. Glassmeyer and Handsor, the two other most likely SSDM candidates from this class IMO, are both bigger.) The down sides are too numerous to name.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

How many losses next year?

I’d say the over under should be set at 6.5.

[jhu06]

I hope the post about Jaronski was mostly tongue in cheek because the other fact that has to be taken into account was competition. It would appear that a team that has 14 players but goes 17-4 and undefeated in its league is an interesting fact to say the least. I did notice on the Friends League website that ANC played Hill Academy and lost 11-1. Invoking Harry's name when discussing a kid that hasn't even had a fall practice is beyond comprehension if done seriously - but that is the nature of this particular individual - hyperbole knows no bounds.

I'm as excited to find the next John Crawley, Pat Fraser, kuuuuuhn, revelation out of nowhere as you are, but the reality we've seen is that as we identified last spring it's likely that of the 22 or so guys that will see meaningful minutes in game 1 next spring 17 of them played in the horrendous loss to notre dame and according to many of you 5 of the best are the ones that graduated.

Wait, Kuhn is a "revelation" now? Last I heard, he was completely worthless and you were happy to see him (and others) graduate.

Speaking of that senior class—not sure if this is already common knowledge or not but Coulter is NOT returning. So outside of Hubler we've got pretty much no real experience at SSDM. One or two of the freshmen may be forced to play there out of necessity, or perhaps they'll convert another pole like they did with McManus. The bright side is that the position will probably be bigger than it has been, by default. (Though Chambers, from what I've heard—while very good at the position in high school—is not a big kid. Glassmeyer and Handsor, the two other most likely SSDM candidates from this class IMO, are both bigger.) The down sides are too numerous to name.

he saw the field for a great deal of his career. they now have holes at ssdm1, ssdm3, lsm 1, attack 2, close d1, goalie needs a challenge, and the midfield has maybe one guy-concannon with a settled role.

[kramerica.inc]

How many losses next year?

I’d say the over under should be set at 6.5.

15 game regular season?

O/U set at 7 losses.

[houndace1]

How many losses next year?

I’d say the over under should be set at 6.5.

15 game regular season?

O/U set at 7 losses.

If its a 13 game regular season

I say 4 losses with wins coming against Towson, probably Loyola, MSM, Navy, Rutgers, Michigan, Princeton, Delaware, OSU.

Losses coming from- UMD, Syracuse UNC , PSU,

[HopFan16]

Hop typically plays a 13-game regular season schedule. If the schedule is the same as last year, but with Navy replacing Virginia, it will be really hard to lose 8 regular season games, IMO. I mean, it is certainly far from impossible, but the team would have to be pretty bad. Considerably worse than 2019.

Green = tossup
Blue = Jays are favored
Red = Jays are underdogs

Towson
Loyola
UNC
Princeton
Syracuse
Mount St. Mary's
Delaware
Navy
Michigan
Rutgers
Ohio State
Penn State
Maryland

They'd pretty much have to go 1-4 in those "tossup" games and not spring any upsets in the others to lose more than 7 games in total on the season. And I think that's a pretty conservative estimate. The smart money is on fewer than 7 losses.

Now if Duke suddenly shows up on the schedule then the calculus changes considerably.

[houndace1]

Hop typically plays a 13-game regular season schedule. If the schedule is the same as last year, but with Navy replacing Virginia, it will be really hard to lose 8 regular season games, IMO. I mean, it is certainly far from impossible, but the team would have to be pretty bad. Considerably worse than 2019.

Green = tossup
Blue = Jays are favored
Red = Jays are underdogs

Towson
Loyola
UNC
Princeton
Syracuse
Mount St. Mary's
Delaware
Navy
Michigan
Rutgers
Ohio State
Penn State
Maryland

They'd pretty much have to go 1-4 in those "tossup" games and not spring any upsets in the others to lose more than 7 games in total on the season. And I think that's a pretty conservative estimate. The smart money is on fewer than 7 losses.

Now if Duke suddenly shows up on the schedule then the calculus changes considerably.

I'd have to disagree considerably with Loyola. Hopkins has so much more answers to the test, while Loyola has question marks in key positions. Goalie is the toss up, your FO's are better. Epstein will be a dangerous threat. Midfield gives you the edge with Concannon, Desimone, Zinn. The only spots i can say that probably be better for Loyola will be SSDM/ LSM/ and Defense

[jhu06]

per stevens 2020 rank/ % of starts lost/% scoring lost-doesn't include transfers/IL incoming 2018/19 recruiting ranking
https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/m ... sion-i-men

23 Princeton 23/26 (NR, NR)
18 Rutgers 18/7 but max edelman (NR, NR)
16-UNC 50%/27 (2,10)
15 towson 40/53 (NR,NR)
14 loyola 51/44-doesn't include scanlan (NR,NR)
12-ohio state 20/16 (NR,7)
8us 30/25 (4,4)
7-cuse 39/33 (8,NR)
4 maryland 42/18 (NR,1)
1 penn state 20/12 (NR,8)

[HopFan16]

I'd have to disagree considerably with Loyola. Hopkins has so much more answers to the test, while Loyola has question marks in key positions. Goalie is the toss up, your FO's are better. Epstein will be a dangerous threat. Midfield gives you the edge with Concannon, Desimone, Zinn. The only spots i can say that probably be better for Loyola will be SSDM/ LSM/ and Defense

I do think the teams will be much closer in 2020 than where they have been the last couple years but given recent history and the fact that the game will be at Ridley, I still think Loyola has to be favored. Still, even if you move it to the tossup category it doesn't really change the calculus if you're trying to game out how many losses the team might have. Obviously it's a different ballgame now with Spencer gone. I think you're being too generous with our midfield—Zinn has all the potential in the world and we certainly hopes he turns into a star but right now that's pretty much all it is, potential. DeSimone is coming off a 4-goal campaign and while Concannon has been a solid contributor—if that's the leading scorer of your entire midfield, you might have problems. That said I did just glance at Loyola's roster and it appears you too now have a pretty significant scarcity in midfield scoring after the losing Scanlan, Duffy, and McGovern. So maybe that area of the field is a tossup. Where the Hounds clearly win is on the defensive side of the field. I was just trying to take a stab at what something like Lax Vegas Lines might say is the favorite/underdog for each matchup.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

I’ll say 6-7, and the season will feel like this:

https://www.unilad.co.uk/animals/guy-re ... bull-run/

Good video in that link, with screaming.

And, emphasis on repeatedly

[DocBarrister]

Year 2 of the Joey Epstein era.

I will guess a 9-4 regular season, 1-1 and 2nd place in the B1G tournament, and a trip to the Final Four following a thrilling double-overtime win over Duke.

DocBarrister

[Sagittarius A*]

I’m thinking more like 8-5 with a Quarterfinal beat down by Duke. Yes I’m optimistic. Murphy was also an optimist.
Hey can Jaronski play in the goal?

[steel_hop]

I’ll say 6-7, and the season will feel like this:

https://www.unilad.co.uk/animals/guy-re ... bull-run/

Good video in that link, with screaming.

And, emphasis on repeatedly

Ouch...there should be more of a warning on that video than "Good video in that link, with screaming."

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

I’ll say 6-7, and the season will feel like this:

https://www.unilad.co.uk/animals/guy-re ... bull-run/

Good video in that link, with screaming.

And, emphasis on repeatedly

Ouch...there should be more of a warning on that video than "Good video in that link, with screaming."

Preview of how fans will feel during the upcoming season.

(And I thought more of the URL would show up in the hot link. Looks like it got shortened.)

[steel_hop]

Honestly, anyone guessing more than a 500 record is smoking something. The defense loses its best on ball defender and its best LSM. They are also the 2 guys with the best stickwork of the long stick defenders which led to some unassisted fast break goals...Geez I just looked and Kuhn had more goals than DiSimone.

As for the defense, again, losing two of your first 4 primary long sticks and 2 of 3 top SSDM (regardless of how we feel about them) from a defense that "struggled" (I'll be generous in saying that). Not only did they struggle with defending top teams but struggled in not playing like a chicken with their head cut off during games is probably even a bigger question mark than the offense was going into last spring. The defense almost literally can't get worse, but it also might not improve.

For now, there is no answer in goal. Darby is still around and my guess, given Petro's nature, the starting goalie position is still his to lose. Another goalie, like Giacalone, will likely need to stand on his head to beat Darby out. Maybe the defense answers some questions and gets to average like the offense did last year.

I'd just like to point it out. In the last 5 years, Hopkins has had 1 year that the goalies have had a greater than .500 save percentage and that was in 2018 when Brock had a .505 SVP. The other 4 years it has been .450 (2019), .455 (2017), .470 (2016), .484 (2015). Not all of those goals can be solely attributed to the goalies but if you want to see Hopkins do better than getting that save rate up is paramount. This can be done be a combination of getting better goaltending but also with better defense to prevent wide open shots inside 12 yards because a defender has lost their man.

The offense was average to say the least last year. There was naturally going to be a step back from 2018 with lots of top offensive players graduating but it was still average, which might have been enough to win another game or two but for the fact the defense was awful. But, the offense still has a ton of questions that need to be answered. The 1st middie production was not good. Hopefully, Smith can keep the momentum from the 2nd half of the year going (when he put up 19 of his 26 points in the last 8 games) but the other two middies need to produce better. You can't get only 4 goals from 1st line middie and expect to be competitive. While Marr didn't have the year he, or us wanted, it is question as to who will be the outside sniper on the team this year and take that 3rd Attackman role. There weren't many snipers last year and one of your best snipers is now gone - until shown otherwise, most opposing defenses will really compact to see if Hopkins can hit any shots from distance.

[steel_hop]

I’ll say 6-7, and the season will feel like this:

https://www.unilad.co.uk/animals/guy-re ... bull-run/

Good video in that link, with screaming.

And, emphasis on repeatedly

Ouch...there should be more of a warning on that video than "Good video in that link, with screaming."

Preview of how fans will feel during the upcoming season.

(And I thought more of the URL would show up in the hot link. Looks like it got shortened.)

No worries. I thought it was funny.

[HopFan16]

For now, there is no answer in goal. Darby is still around and my guess, given Petro's nature, the starting goalie position is still his to lose. Another goalie, like Giacalone, will likely need to stand on his head to beat Darby out. Maybe the defense answers some questions and gets to average like the offense did last year.

I dunno—Darby getting pulled in the playoff game for Giacalone (who played pretty well, IMO) felt like a changing of the guard. So you've got Giacalone there now with some real, honest-to-goodness game experience, you've got Gainey who came in with some nice accolades last year and has apparently been working really hard this summer at various camps to earn some playing time come spring, and then you've got the freshman Marcille who comes in with a very good reputation. Until the dust settles, sure, the goalie position does not exactly inspire confidence as is, but at least there are options. I wouldn't necessarily pencil Darby in as the starter especially given how the last season ended. As we all know Petro does not pull goalies easily, so when he does it's not insignificant.

The offense was average to say the least last year. There was naturally going to be a step back from 2018 with lots of top offensive players graduating but it was still average, which might have been enough to win another game or two but for the fact the defense was awful. But, the offense still has a ton of questions that need to be answered. The 1st middie production was not good. Hopefully, Smith can keep the momentum from the 2nd half of the year going (when he put up 19 of his 26 points in the last 8 games) but the other two middies need to produce better. You can't get only 4 goals from 1st line middie and expect to be competitive. While Marr didn't have the year he, or us wanted, it is question as to who will be the outside sniper on the team this year and take that 3rd Attackman role. There weren't many snipers last year and one of your best snipers is now gone - until shown otherwise, most opposing defenses will really compact to see if Hopkins can hit any shots from distance.

Over the course of the whole season I think "average" is a fair descriptor but (as you noted with Smith), there was pretty good production toward the end of the year. 16, 12, and 17 goals against conference rivals in the last three games before the Notre Dame debacle. And even in the ND game, 8 of our 9 goals and 12 of our 13 total points came from returning players (6 for Epstein, 3 apiece for Cole and Forry). Freshmen are supposed to hit a wall, but Epstein's production considerably increased over the second half of the season. Zinn was getting more involved, DeSimone was showing signs of a pulse (5 pts in the 3 games before ND). The defense may have been trending downward but I do think the offense was on an upward trajectory, and it's returning 8 of the top 9 scorers, while adding a couple potentially interesting pieces in Angelus, Murphy, etc. Midfield depth is an ongoing issue but I don't think there's much reason to be concerned about overall offensive production. Defense and goaltending is clearly what will decide whether the Jays have any success.

[houndace1]

For now, there is no answer in goal. Darby is still around and my guess, given Petro's nature, the starting goalie position is still his to lose. Another goalie, like Giacalone, will likely need to stand on his head to beat Darby out. Maybe the defense answers some questions and gets to average like the offense did last year.

I dunno—Darby getting pulled in the playoff game for Giacalone (who played pretty well, IMO) felt like a changing of the guard. So you've got Giacalone there now with some real, honest-to-goodness game experience, you've got Gainey who came in with some nice accolades last year and has apparently been working really hard this summer at various camps to earn some playing time come spring, and then you've got the freshman Marcille who comes in with a very good reputation. Until the dust settles, sure, the goalie position does not exactly inspire confidence as is, but at least there are options. I wouldn't necessarily pencil Darby in as the starter especially given how the last season ended. As we all know Petro does not pull goalies easily, so when he does it's not insignificant.

The offense was average to say the least last year. There was naturally going to be a step back from 2018 with lots of top offensive players graduating but it was still average, which might have been enough to win another game or two but for the fact the defense was awful. But, the offense still has a ton of questions that need to be answered. The 1st middie production was not good. Hopefully, Smith can keep the momentum from the 2nd half of the year going (when he put up 19 of his 26 points in the last 8 games) but the other two middies need to produce better. You can't get only 4 goals from 1st line middie and expect to be competitive. While Marr didn't have the year he, or us wanted, it is question as to who will be the outside sniper on the team this year and take that 3rd Attackman role. There weren't many snipers last year and one of your best snipers is now gone - until shown otherwise, most opposing defenses will really compact to see if Hopkins can hit any shots from distance.

Over the course of the whole season I think "average" is a fair descriptor but (as you noted with Smith), there was pretty good production toward the end of the year. 16, 12, and 17 goals against conference rivals in the last three games before the Notre Dame debacle. And even in the ND game, 8 of our 9 goals and 12 of our 13 total points came from returning players (6 for Epstein, 3 apiece for Cole and Forry). Freshmen are supposed to hit a wall, but Epstein's production considerably increased over the second half of the season. Zinn was getting more involved, DeSimone was showing signs of a pulse (5 pts in the 3 games before ND). The defense may have been trending downward but I do think the offense was on an upward trajectory, and it's returning 8 of the top 9 scorers, while adding a couple potentially interesting pieces in Angelus, Murphy, etc. Midfield depth is an ongoing issue but I don't think there's much reason to be concerned about overall offensive production. Defense and goaltending is clearly what will decide whether the Jays have any success.

Regarding Forry, i remember in my sophomore year in spring of 2016, IL released an article of players to watch out for, and they compared Forry to be Hopkins' next Ryan Brown in terms of shooting and production... honest question but is there a reason why some players who IL project to be instant playmakers for top schools, seem to fizzle out?

[Lenwood117]

For now, there is no answer in goal. Darby is still around and my guess, given Petro's nature, the starting goalie position is still his to lose. Another goalie, like Giacalone, will likely need to stand on his head to beat Darby out. Maybe the defense answers some questions and gets to average like the offense did last year.

I dunno—Darby getting pulled in the playoff game for Giacalone (who played pretty well, IMO) felt like a changing of the guard. So you've got Giacalone there now with some real, honest-to-goodness game experience, you've got Gainey who came in with some nice accolades last year and has apparently been working really hard this summer at various camps to earn some playing time come spring, and then you've got the freshman Marcille who comes in with a very good reputation. Until the dust settles, sure, the goalie position does not exactly inspire confidence as is, but at least there are options. I wouldn't necessarily pencil Darby in as the starter especially given how the last season ended. As we all know Petro does not pull goalies easily, so when he does it's not insignificant.

The offense was average to say the least last year. There was naturally going to be a step back from 2018 with lots of top offensive players graduating but it was still average, which might have been enough to win another game or two but for the fact the defense was awful. But, the offense still has a ton of questions that need to be answered. The 1st middie production was not good. Hopefully, Smith can keep the momentum from the 2nd half of the year going (when he put up 19 of his 26 points in the last 8 games) but the other two middies need to produce better. You can't get only 4 goals from 1st line middie and expect to be competitive. While Marr didn't have the year he, or us wanted, it is question as to who will be the outside sniper on the team this year and take that 3rd Attackman role. There weren't many snipers last year and one of your best snipers is now gone - until shown otherwise, most opposing defenses will really compact to see if Hopkins can hit any shots from distance.

Over the course of the whole season I think "average" is a fair descriptor but (as you noted with Smith), there was pretty good production toward the end of the year. 16, 12, and 17 goals against conference rivals in the last three games before the Notre Dame debacle. And even in the ND game, 8 of our 9 goals and 12 of our 13 total points came from returning players (6 for Epstein, 3 apiece for Cole and Forry). Freshmen are supposed to hit a wall, but Epstein's production considerably increased over the second half of the season. Zinn was getting more involved, DeSimone was showing signs of a pulse (5 pts in the 3 games before ND). The defense may have been trending downward but I do think the offense was on an upward trajectory, and it's returning 8 of the top 9 scorers, while adding a couple potentially interesting pieces in Angelus, Murphy, etc. Midfield depth is an ongoing issue but I don't think there's much reason to be concerned about overall offensive production. Defense and goaltending is clearly what will decide whether the Jays have any success.

Regarding Forry, i remember in my sophomore year in spring of 2016, IL released an article of players to watch out for, and they compared Forry to be Hopkins' next Ryan Brown in terms of shooting and production... honest question but is there a reason why some players who IL project to be instant playmakers for top schools, seem to fizzle out?

Most of the kids that go to private school reclassify, so when they are on the summer circuit they are a year older, bigger, faster, stronger so they stand out. College everything equals out.