Off-Topic- Will PLL Make It Big And Draw Great Crowds For Years?

[Dunker]

Lots of intelligent well thought out posts. I take it many if not most of us are lax junkies. Thus I pose this question:

IF the NCAA Championship lacrosse final was played Sunday at 1PM on the opening day of the NFL season, What would you watch?

Me, I'd watch the lax because it really matters who wins, and I'd switch to the NFL during commercials or other breaks in action. I'd probably do the same during the regular college lax season also.

I try and watch PLL and MLL summer games. Still, I don't know which player is on which PLL team. City or regional association is needed.

NBC would do the PLL and itself a big favor if it promoted the PLL during its 16 hours of golf coverage the next 2 weekends.

[Wheels]

Is that true?

What are the real attendance and TV rating numbers?

I think their last stop in San Jose had a 2-day combined attendance of ~11.5K and the NBCSN game had 155K (which is their most watched game to date). The attendance number is low, for sure, but their trend line on viewership has been going up. Not like a rocket but it's going up. I can see the pros and cons of the tour model from a marketing perspective. Make a big marketing push surrounding the weekend in a single city instead of having to market in 3 cities. The 2-day model might not be helping them, though. On one hand, a full day of 3 games is a lot; OTOH, that second day gets lost.

One more thing, and it's a wild card. What if one league partners with the NLL and create one entire superleague? It'd be interesting and I'd bet the odd outdoor league out of it suffers.

This is a really interesting idea, and I wonder which/if league (MLL or PLL or both) has made any overtures. The MLL backfilled their rosters with a lot of the NLL Canadians, but the PLL has quite a few American players already in the NLL. The touring model doesn't really help in creating synergies with the NLL, though. Although, with the PLL heading to Canada this weekend, it will again give the Rabills data. They do seem to be thinking about things very differently than the MLL. A NLL-PLL/MLL partnership would be really cool. Put a team in Philly to pair with the Wings. Put a team in Denver to pair with the Mammoth. Put one in Toronto to pair with the Rock. One in ATL with the Swarm. One in SoCal to pair with the Seals. And one in NY to pair with the new Riptide team.

That'd really be a cool way of thinking about pro lacrosse. If anyone on here has the pull, get on this ASAP!!

IF the NCAA Championship lacrosse final was played Sunday at 1PM on the opening day of the NFL season, What would you watch?

Me, I'd watch the lax because it really matters who wins, and I'd switch to the NFL during commercials or other breaks in action. I'd probably do the same during the regular college lax season also.

I'm with you. I gave up the NFL, though, years ago when Dan Snyder ruined the Skins. My cold war against the Skins will continue until he's no longer the owner. Gonna be a long time. But it's made me pretty much ambivalent toward the NFL in general.

[d3commenter]

I also think some people that think MLL is going to fold and merge with PLL don't know a lot about the business of sports in lax and in general. MLL has people with a lot of money. I don't think they're going down without a fight, and that fight will last longer than people think. They'll get angry PLL "free agents" and others that aren't playing a ton. I think Dylan Molloy is an example of that. I could see both leagues folding as well, which wouldn't be good.

Finally, how long do we think investors will wait? Mike Rabil said it's a 10-year plan, but is that too long? Is 5 more reasonable? Maybe 7? PLL contracts are for this year and next with players and NBC (think it might be 3 with NBC). Most MLL contracts are also for 2 years. I'd see what happens and how expansion goes into this. Both leagues are works of progress.

The PLL has people with a lot of money too, though. Joe Tsai is a billionaire and The Raine Group has about $3B in AUM. Agree the MLL won't just disappear overnight, but its not as if the PLL is an underfunded experiment either - they have plenty of resources to compete. The investors committed their money with the understanding that a return wasn't coming 3-5 years out. These are sophisticated funds / executives with enormous amounts of committed capital that definitely underwrote a longer investment horizon when evaluating whether to buy in. These guys understand the risk and surely priced it in to their investments. The challenge you bring up of proving out the model and renewing broadcasting contracts is real, but I doubt a few years from now the investors will be impatient and looking to pull their money back out instead of exploring ways to continue to expand (including some sort of merge with the MLL, since Rabil originally wanted to invest there anyway).

[laxxygilmore]

http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/icehockeyhistory.html

Lots of interesting insight indeed. So, if the past development history of professional hockey since ~1904 is potential prologue / road map to the development of professional lacrosse since ~1999, looks like pro lax will need another 70-90 years to get to the point whereby professional players can quit their day jobs and make a decent to lucrative living as full time pro-laxers. And if that becomes so, it may also mean all current pro-laxers, and pro-laxers for the next 40+ years, will have missed that boat and will need to continue to support themselves and their families like the rest of us as coaches; teachers; military officers; bankers; lawyers; commercial real estate brokers; investment advisors; tech geeks; doctors; restauranteurs; bartenders; ocean lifeguards and Jiffy Lube franchise owners, etc., etc., etc. If that 70-90 years pot of gold horizon is accurate, the pro-laxers who will benefit the most financially won't come into this world until after 2070. Something for our great grand kids to look forward to...along with summer lax travel team seasons costing >$50K / summer by then. By then, will it be The Steinfeld Trophy or The Alibaba Cup?

[palaxoff]

I also think some people that think MLL is going to fold and merge with PLL don't know a lot about the business of sports in lax and in general. MLL has people with a lot of money. I don't think they're going down without a fight, and that fight will last longer than people think. They'll get angry PLL "free agents" and others that aren't playing a ton. I think Dylan Molloy is an example of that. I could see both leagues folding as well, which wouldn't be good.

Finally, how long do we think investors will wait? Mike Rabil said it's a 10-year plan, but is that too long? Is 5 more reasonable? Maybe 7? PLL contracts are for this year and next with players and NBC (think it might be 3 with NBC). Most MLL contracts are also for 2 years. I'd see what happens and how expansion goes into this. Both leagues are works of progress.
The PLL has people with a lot of money too, though. Joe Tsai is a billionaire and The Raine Group has about $3B in AUM. Agree the MLL won't just disappear overnight, but its not as if the PLL is an underfunded experiment either - they have plenty of resources to compete. The investors committed their money with the understanding that a return wasn't coming 3-5 years out. These are sophisticated funds / executives with enormous amounts of committed capital that definitely underwrote a longer investment horizon when evaluating whether to buy in. These guys understand the risk and surely priced it in to their investments. The challenge you bring up of proving out the model and renewing broadcasting contracts is real, but I doubt a few years from now the investors will be impatient and looking to pull their money back out instead of exploring ways to continue to expand (including some sort of merge with the MLL, since Rabil originally wanted to invest there anyway)

So this is what I know of people with a lot of money, they have a lot of money because they made money not because they lost it. They will cut bait and leave if they don't see a return or potential return on their money. Based on the small market size I don't see a successful 2 league situation. It has a long way to go before it could even sniff MLS attendance and TV rating . With only 71 D1 programs and of which 30 might get consistent TV time there doesn't seem to be a lot of potential growth after you factor in the declining youth population. Also I think the next generation is too involved with their cell phones, computers and social media, 10 -15 year ago there would be some kid ripping twine at the high school fields, now those goals are just lawn ornaments.

[HooDat]

Maybe because I'm getting old, but I have a hard time connecting to a league with teams that do not have geographic ties. I've watched portions of some of the games, but I can't get too worked up since don't care whether "Archers" or "Chaos" wins the game.

question for the group - If the teams were composed of players from specific schools or maybe allegiances of schools would that create fan interest?

For example, what if there was a Team Cuse, or Team UVA, ....JHU, UMD, Duke, UNC, etc....

Maybe you combine a couple of Ivy teams, or all the Ivy teams. Maybe you have a team Mich/OSU/Denver? Perhaps a D3 team? No logic to how I am breaking this out - just a way to get fans a reason to root for a team, if all the UVA guys in the league are on a specific team - well then I would know to root for them. Same for fans of other college teams, or conferences.

[DMac]

Right on the money, IMO, Hoo....something along your suggested line anyway. When I watch pro lacrosse that is what is lacking for me, I have no real rooting interest for any team, whereas when I watch college lacrosse I usually do. That's a real difference maker, I don't get nearly as excited or into the game when it's the pros playing, it feels more like a bunch lax rats getting together to play a game than anything to me.

[AreaLax]

Maybe because I'm getting old, but I have a hard time connecting to a league with teams that do not have geographic ties. I've watched portions of some of the games, but I can't get too worked up since don't care whether "Archers" or "Chaos" wins the game.

question for the group - If the teams were composed of players from specific schools or maybe allegiances of schools would that create fan interest?

For example, what if there was a Team Cuse, or Team UVA, ....JHU, UMD, Duke, UNC, etc....

Maybe you combine a couple of Ivy teams, or all the Ivy teams. Maybe you have a team Mich/OSU/Denver? Perhaps a D3 team? No logic to how I am breaking this out - just a way to get fans a reason to root for a team, if all the UVA guys in the league are on a specific team - well then I would know to root for them. Same for fans of other college teams, or conferences.

Aren’t they already trying that? Whipsnakes is mostly Terps. When they played in Baltimore and DC they played a team that had a couple Hopkins guys. They tried to compare it to the Maryland Hopkins rivalry.

[HooDat]

they played a team that had a couple Hopkins guys

that's the problem though. It can't "just happen to be" a "couple of Hopkins guys". It needs to be the Jays or the Turtles or the Wahoos. Or the TarCavs or the BlueTerps or the Ivies...

Make it perfectly clear for potential fans - THIS is who you should root for.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Maybe because I'm getting old, but I have a hard time connecting to a league with teams that do not have geographic ties. I've watched portions of some of the games, but I can't get too worked up since don't care whether "Archers" or "Chaos" wins the game.

question for the group - If the teams were composed of players from specific schools or maybe allegiances of schools would that create fan interest?

For example, what if there was a Team Cuse, or Team UVA, ....JHU, UMD, Duke, UNC, etc....

Maybe you combine a couple of Ivy teams, or all the Ivy teams. Maybe you have a team Mich/OSU/Denver? Perhaps a D3 team? No logic to how I am breaking this out - just a way to get fans a reason to root for a team, if all the UVA guys in the league are on a specific team - well then I would know to root for them. Same for fans of other college teams, or conferences.

Your idea about grouping players with some commonality is how it’s done. I think the league has had more success this year than was anticipated. We will see how it unfolds. Somethings I like and some things I don’t. Don’t like the short running clock. Game is rushed. Not sure about length of the field.

[cuseman4133]

Maybe because I'm getting old, but I have a hard time connecting to a league with teams that do not have geographic ties. I've watched portions of some of the games, but I can't get too worked up since don't care whether "Archers" or "Chaos" wins the game.

question for the group - If the teams were composed of players from specific schools or maybe allegiances of schools would that create fan interest?

For example, what if there was a Team Cuse, or Team UVA, ....JHU, UMD, Duke, UNC, etc....

Maybe you combine a couple of Ivy teams, or all the Ivy teams. Maybe you have a team Mich/OSU/Denver? Perhaps a D3 team? No logic to how I am breaking this out - just a way to get fans a reason to root for a team, if all the UVA guys in the league are on a specific team - well then I would know to root for them. Same for fans of other college teams, or conferences.

Your idea about grouping players with some commonality is how it’s done. I think the league has had more success this year than was anticipated. We will see how it unfolds. Somethings I like and some things I don’t. Don’t like the short running clock. Game is rushed. Not sure about length of the field.

I do think in the end, PLL needs to get city-based teams. It's not like NASCAR or other racing organizations (even tennis). They're individual racers or players. They're selling STARS, not TEAMS and STARS. I think right now PLL is selling STARS like Rabil, Baptiste (maybe for obvious reasons), Schreiber, Harrison, Rambo, etc. Also feel like they might not be selling some stars enough like Connor Fields. Think that's where these teams can break up and have individuality and not be operated by the league themselves.

Going back on the city-based idea, depending on market and interest, that should get a decent amount of ink or coverage each week from some outlets. Even if its a short blurb in a newspaper/highly circulated website, better than nothing.

One more idea: Coaches weekly media conference calls. IL and US Lax Mag for the most part cover leagues from wherever they are. I highly doubt they'd send someone over to Columbus for playoffs (or sent someone to Denver/San Jose). Same with other blogs that decided to start covering the league and think they know lax. Either way, have all six coaches on the phone for about 10-20 minutes each week and discuss the previous week and their upcoming game. I don't think the individual MLL teams do this (NLL does I believe). Again, gets something out.

[cuseman4133]

Lots of intelligent well thought out posts. I take it many if not most of us are lax junkies. Thus I pose this question:

IF the NCAA Championship lacrosse final was played Sunday at 1PM on the opening day of the NFL season, What would you watch?

Me, I'd watch the lax because it really matters who wins, and I'd switch to the NFL during commercials or other breaks in action. I'd probably do the same during the regular college lax season also.

I try and watch PLL and MLL summer games. Still, I don't know which player is on which PLL team. City or regional association is needed.

NBC would do the PLL and itself a big favor if it promoted the PLL during its 16 hours of golf coverage the next 2 weekends.

For me, there's two factors that play into this.

-Is my football team playing at 1? (the biggest factor)

-Can I watch on my laptop?

For the 1st factor, I'd watch that football game, flip to lax during commercials for a short time. If I have my laptop, I'd watch the lax final.

But with no internet and just TV with my team not playing, I'd probably still watch football and flip to lax during commercials unless it gets close. It's hard to trump NFL football.

[FannOLax]

IF the NCAA Championship lacrosse final was played Sunday at 1PM on the opening day of the NFL season, What would you watch?

Hands down, no doubt, the lacrosse... and it wouldn't have to be the championship game.

I find it interesting how much of this discussion has centered on broadcasts, both TV and streaming on-line. Guess I'm lucky to watch the majority of my lacrosse in-person. Still, I appreciate the importance of broadcasting; ESPN's coverage has left a lot to be desired and hopefully NBC's raised standards will rub off on ESPN.

[Wheels]

Here's a couple of more thoughts to add to the discussion.

One, the focus on social media can only be to build the brand of the league as a vehicle to sell more tickets/get more eyeballs on TV/computer screens. It's vital for either the MLL or PLL to be on TV and not through a paid streaming service. Yes, cord cutting is happening, but the streaming services are simply replicating the cable bundling practice and viewers are running their streaming through their TVs. So at the end of the day, the quality of the production really matters. Advertising on TV or streaming still matters. But back to the social media issue and why it's kind of smoke and mirrors right now for Rabill. He's trying to generate buzz, and that's great and what he should be doing. But you don't get any money...none...through social media impressions, likes, retweets, shares, or any other metric of engagement. Those engagements/clicks only get monetized once someone clicks to purchase something from the PLL (tickets, apparel, streaming service) OR from one of the sponsors/advertisers. We can talk all day about social media, but it's still just another platform for marketing some product; and if no one is purchasing the product, there's no money to be made. Rabill is great at brand building, and he's been good so far with matching a great on field product with the social media buzz. I do wonder, too, if the PLL gets any gait receipt revenue at this point because the rental costs of these venues must be substantial. I wouldn't be surprised if all ticket revenue went straight to the stadium owners with the PLL taking on all of the marketing and set up costs in return. Think about last week in San Jose: ~11.5K fans at maybe $20 a ticket. That's only $230K of ticket revenue. How much does it cost to rent that stadium?

Two, whichever pro sports league can leverage in-seat gambling first will see a huge boom in attendance. We can all lament about crowd size in all sports, and we see a lot lamenting about smaller crowd sizes in the college game. But this is the reality of modern sports. The TV viewing experience is too good, so you need the in person experience to add something more than what you can get on TV. I wonder if the Rabill Bros in doing this tour model are also thinking about possible stops on the tour or permanent city bases for the teams where in-person gambling is allowed (even through geolocation on your phone). GA, NJ, IL and a few others already allow for this fusion of technology and gambling. Adding in-seat gambling, even through an app that has a tight geo-fence around a stadium to limit use to just the stadium, would probably lead to more butts in seats. The NFL, NBA, and NHL are grappling with this already, but the PLL is still small enough to maybe get ahead of the curve on the trend. Prop bets on 2 point shots! Prop bets on the next goal scored! Prop bets on the next face-off!

It might make people feel uncomfortable to even talk about gambling (degenerate lacrosse gamblers!!! YAY!!), but if you're running a sports (i.e., entertainment) business, in-seat differentiation is important these days if you want to boost attendance. Can't imagine that the Rabill's haven't at least thought about this and wonder what their thoughts on it are. Conversely, maybe the MLL would have an opportunity to make a strong move in that direction.

[pcowlax]

Thoughts about in stadium gambling and especially in stadium prop betting are the most forward looking in this thread. Yes Wheels, you are dead spot on. It may take a while with lax but every sport is actually struggling with butts in seats vs watching from A/C at home with your own fridge and bathroom and 65 inch HD TV. The solution, especially for now for football, geolocalized gambling, again, especially prop. Who wins the next faceoff, $2 bet. Which team takes the next penalty? Which player score the next goal? Over/under for goalie saves this period at 5. It is coming, and in 10 years all sports in the US will be drastically tied to gambling.

[flyerfan17]

Most people who gamble don't need to go to the game to do it, gambling will never put people in seats at lacrosse games

[Drcthru]

Lots of intelligent well thought out posts. I take it many if not most of us are lax junkies. Thus I pose this question:

IF the NCAA Championship lacrosse final was played Sunday at 1PM on the opening day of the NFL season, What would you watch?

Me, I'd watch the lax because it really matters who wins, and I'd switch to the NFL during commercials or other breaks in action. I'd probably do the same during the regular college lax season also.

I try and watch PLL and MLL summer games. Still, I don't know which player is on which PLL team. City or regional association is needed.

NBC would do the PLL and itself a big favor if it promoted the PLL during its 16 hours of golf coverage the next 2 weekends.

DVR duh

[Wheels]

Most people who gamble don't need to go to the game to do it, gambling will never put people in seats at lacrosse games

Not if the betting occurs in a geo-fenced stadium so that the wagers can only be placed in the stadium. The technology is already there to do this. The apps exist. Some states already allow online/app-based gambling. The gambling will add to the "entertainment" of going to a live game. This will all happen and probably in the not too distant future. It won't be for everyone, but it will probably increase attendance because it's something you won't be able to get from home while watching TV or streaming on your computer.

Again, I'd be surprised if Rabill and his crew weren't already thinking about this. They have Silicon Valley-types already backing the PLL venture. These people know the tech, know the market, and know the legalities.

[bearlaxfan]

It seems to me the gambling aspect is very dangerous while salaries are still modest. The temptation to enhance income will be there, especially for goalies and f/o men. Big money sports have the issue, and those players have much more skin in the game if they get caught. And the security costs will drive up franchise costs.

[Can Opener]

Most people who gamble don't need to go to the game to do it, gambling will never put people in seats at lacrosse games

Not if the betting occurs in a geo-fenced stadium so that the wagers can only be placed in the stadium. The technology is already there to do this. The apps exist. Some states already allow online/app-based gambling. The gambling will add to the "entertainment" of going to a live game. This will all happen and probably in the not too distant future. It won't be for everyone, but it will probably increase attendance because it's something you won't be able to get from home while watching TV or streaming on your computer.

Again, I'd be surprised if Rabill and his crew weren't already thinking about this. They have Silicon Valley-types already backing the PLL venture. These people know the tech, know the market, and know the legalities.

Cool idea, but I’ve got a better one. What does every family sitting in the stands need? Yup, clothes washer/dryer sets. Those things last about 5 years which means that for every 1,000 people in the stands, 200 will be buying a new washer/dryer that year. With an average purchase price of $1,000 per set, that’s $200,000 in revenue per game. Biggest no brainer ever, right? Oh no, wait. That’s actually a terrible idea because they’ll probably buy them at WalMart. But at least it’s a better idea than in stadium gambling on lacrosse!