Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

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Typical Lax Dad
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

pcowlax wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:48 am As for me, I never intended to say, and didn’t say, that the club model had greatly improved our national men’s team, relative to the top ~35 teams they still suck (though they would pound the team from 20 years ago). In the context of talking about a lax bubble bursting I was just saying that while there are many things to lament about the way club is run, soccer moves from rec teams to travel teams to club teams to ODP and it has not ruined their participation level. It can be done. Having a large club scene need not destroy youth lacrosse. Sea Grape is great for a drink, if I’m eating outside on the water I’ll take The Whelk
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palaxoff
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by palaxoff »

First the current demographics probably explain the drop in youth/ rec. By 2025 they expect a 15% drop in the number of college students with continuing down trends after for possibly 10 years.

I brought up the issue of clubs, based on a conversation I had with some officials and coaches in SE PA. Five yeas ago most high schools had at least a Varsity and JV most carried a freshman team. This year there were very few freshman teams and some of the established high school programs had trouble fielding a JV the whole season. The number of kids trying out for teams probably dropped 30%. Officials were saying that the number of youth games they were doing has dropped as well. Most went from 1 or 2 a night to 1 or 2 a week. This could just be a South East PA thing but there were a number of possible reasons for this that were discussed. Clubs seemed to draw the most criticism.

Clubs seem to create the 24/7 full time lacrosse cycle which is burning out or frustrating kids that they look for other activities.
Clubs seem to push the scholarship message more and that tournament are where the college coaches are.
Clubs say they will make you better, I have seen some amazing club coaches who teach and make it fun, but they seem to be the exceptions.

As for the Bubble Bursting, the more I think about it, I'd say men's lacrosse will be stagnant or slow growing. Title Nine will continue to be the biggest reason it doesn't grow. Any school with a Football Program is almost a guaranteed NO and those are the schools needed to really grow the sport.
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HooDat
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by HooDat »

pcowlax wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:48 am As for me, I never intended to say, and didn’t say, that the club model had greatly improved our national men’s team, relative to the top ~35 teams they still suck (though they would pound the team from 20 years ago). In the context of talking about a lax bubble bursting I was just saying that while there are many things to lament about the way club is run, soccer moves from rec teams to travel teams to club teams to ODP and it has not ruined their participation level. It can be done. Having a large club scene need not destroy youth lacrosse. Sea Grape is great for a drink, if I’m eating outside on the water I’ll take The Whelk
the difference is that soccer has a (perhaps ridiculously so) high level of recreational participation in the US. In many ways youth soccer is the "gateway drug" for all youth sports. Even the "anti-sports" parents sign their kids up for youth soccer. The rec leagues start the earliest and accommodate all skill levels far better than lacrosse does even several grades later. Go to any elementary school playground in almost any town in the US, and you will see a 5 year old shin kicker league in full bloom.
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pcowlax
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by pcowlax »

Yes, exactly, that is my point. I have extreme familiarity with the course of youth soccer over the past 35 year. It went from a sport no one outside of small niches had ever heard of to a very popular youth sport by the early 80s. At that point it was just town rec leagues, ala the halcyon days of lax everyone is referencing on here. It then moved to town travel teams, where after several years of rec the best players in the town would form a team that played against other towns, while rec still carried on for others. In the early 90s clubs really started to come up, which were geographic, in my small state of CT there were 3-4 top clubs splitting kids across the state mostly based on where they lived. This continued for a number of years before clubs expanded their reach, kids would “be on” a club in CT (Oakwood) or PA (Delco) and live in Ohio and just fly in to play in tournaments. This was the rule ( flying was of course not the norm but driving long distances obliterated the previous geographic basis) until the last 5-6 years when ODP completely took over. There are still the clubs but many of the very best are just locked into ODP from early years and the wondrous regionals tourney is lessened for it. AND YET, youth participation remains sky high. This is what I have been trying to say. There are MANY problems with club lax! But just having an emphasis on clubs, or an aggressive selecting out of top players, does not mean your sport needs to crash, or that your youth participation needs to crash, or that kids who are not joining top clubs at age 8 need to stop playing the sport.
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

pcowlax wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:06 am Yes, exactly, that is my point. I have extreme familiarity with the course of youth soccer over the past 35 year. It went from a sport no one outside of small niches had ever heard of to a very popular youth sport by the early 80s. At that point it was just town rec leagues, ala the halcyon days of lax everyone is referencing on here. It then moved to town travel teams, where after several years of rec the best players in the town would form a team that played against other towns, while rec still carried on for others. In the early 90s clubs really started to come up, which were geographic, in my small state of CT there were 3-4 top clubs splitting kids across the state mostly based on where they lived. This continued for a number of years before clubs expanded their reach, kids would “be on” a club in CT (Oakwood) or PA (Delco) and live in Ohio and just fly in to play in tournaments. This was the rule until the last 5-6 years when ODP completely took over. There are still the clubs but many of the very best are just locked into ODP from early years and the wondrous regionals tourney is lessened for it. AND YET, youth participation remains sky high. This is what I have been trying to say. There are MANY problems with club lax! But just having an emphasis on clubs, or an aggressive selecting out of top players, does not mean your sport needs to crash, or that your youth participation needs to crash, or that kids who are not joining top clubs at age 8 need to stop playing the sport.
ODP has been on life support for almost 10 years, particularly on the boys side. If you are talking to a parent that is raving about ODP, chances are the kid isn't that good. It is not like it was 10-15 years ago. You are right about some kids being flown in to guest play but I am not sure Oakwood ever benefited from that. I am still convinced that despite its warts, the Club Soccer is miles ahead of Club lacrosse and it has more value. As an aside, I saw Christian Pulisic play when he was about 11 years old. He was playing 2-3 years up. he wasn't the best player on the field but he was competitive for a little guy. I had forgotten about him until his story became known and I put two and two together. Pulisic took an unconventional route. Less organization and more playing.
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by ABV 8.3% »

What, you mean club soccer doesn't "take" kids who actually never showed up for a "tryout" ? Or, have 4-5 teams at every grad-grade level?

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pcowlax
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by pcowlax »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:28 am
pcowlax wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:06 am Yes, exactly, that is my point. I have extreme familiarity with the course of youth soccer over the past 35 year. It went from a sport no one outside of small niches had ever heard of to a very popular youth sport by the early 80s. At that point it was just town rec leagues, ala the halcyon days of lax everyone is referencing on here. It then moved to town travel teams, where after several years of rec the best players in the town would form a team that played against other towns, while rec still carried on for others. In the early 90s clubs really started to come up, which were geographic, in my small state of CT there were 3-4 top clubs splitting kids across the state mostly based on where they lived. This continued for a number of years before clubs expanded their reach, kids would “be on” a club in CT (Oakwood) or PA (Delco) and live in Ohio and just fly in to play in tournaments. This was the rule until the last 5-6 years when ODP completely took over. There are still the clubs but many of the very best are just locked into ODP from early years and the wondrous regionals tourney is lessened for it. AND YET, youth participation remains sky high. This is what I have been trying to say. There are MANY problems with club lax! But just having an emphasis on clubs, or an aggressive selecting out of top players, does not mean your sport needs to crash, or that your youth participation needs to crash, or that kids who are not joining top clubs at age 8 need to stop playing the sport.
ODP has been on life support for almost 10 years, particularly on the boys side. If you are talking to a parent that is raving about ODP, chances are the kid isn't that good. It is not like it was 10-15 years ago. You are right about some kids being flown in to guest play but I am not sure Oakwood ever benefited from that. I am still convinced that despite its warts, the Club Soccer is miles ahead of Club lacrosse and it has more value. As an aside, I saw Christian Pulisic play when he was about 11 years old. He was playing 2-3 years up. he wasn't the best player on the field but he was competitive for a little guy. I had forgotten about him until his story became known and I put two and two together. Pulisic took an unconventional route. Less organization and more playing.
Should have said ODP/Academy, clubs are nothing like they were 10-15 years ago, just look at who is playing regionals. But what you said! Yes! But why?? For the sake of lax. Club soccer costs a ton, numerous summer tournies, registration fees, travel hotels... The equipment is certainly less but outside of that, soccer is no less cost. So why is club soccer miles ahead of club lax? Honest question because I don’t see club as the font of all evil as many do here because I have seen the takeover of club soccer without destroying youth soccer. Why must this be so in lax??
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by runrussellrun »

Could it be that soccer uses age verification, but club lacrosse "wins" tournaments with AA (presumed to be better ) 2021 players stepping onto a field against a bunch of 2023's.

How is hockey's growth? A club team playing in the wrong age group gets banned. A huge no no. US Lacrosse is the substitute teacher that gets laughed at. USA hockey is the teacher that deserves, and commands, respect.
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Typical Lax Dad
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

pcowlax wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:51 am
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:28 am
pcowlax wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:06 am Yes, exactly, that is my point. I have extreme familiarity with the course of youth soccer over the past 35 year. It went from a sport no one outside of small niches had ever heard of to a very popular youth sport by the early 80s. At that point it was just town rec leagues, ala the halcyon days of lax everyone is referencing on here. It then moved to town travel teams, where after several years of rec the best players in the town would form a team that played against other towns, while rec still carried on for others. In the early 90s clubs really started to come up, which were geographic, in my small state of CT there were 3-4 top clubs splitting kids across the state mostly based on where they lived. This continued for a number of years before clubs expanded their reach, kids would “be on” a club in CT (Oakwood) or PA (Delco) and live in Ohio and just fly in to play in tournaments. This was the rule until the last 5-6 years when ODP completely took over. There are still the clubs but many of the very best are just locked into ODP from early years and the wondrous regionals tourney is lessened for it. AND YET, youth participation remains sky high. This is what I have been trying to say. There are MANY problems with club lax! But just having an emphasis on clubs, or an aggressive selecting out of top players, does not mean your sport needs to crash, or that your youth participation needs to crash, or that kids who are not joining top clubs at age 8 need to stop playing the sport.
ODP has been on life support for almost 10 years, particularly on the boys side. If you are talking to a parent that is raving about ODP, chances are the kid isn't that good. It is not like it was 10-15 years ago. You are right about some kids being flown in to guest play but I am not sure Oakwood ever benefited from that. I am still convinced that despite its warts, the Club Soccer is miles ahead of Club lacrosse and it has more value. As an aside, I saw Christian Pulisic play when he was about 11 years old. He was playing 2-3 years up. he wasn't the best player on the field but he was competitive for a little guy. I had forgotten about him until his story became known and I put two and two together. Pulisic took an unconventional route. Less organization and more playing.
Should have said ODP/Academy, clubs are nothing like they were 10-15 years ago, just look at who is playing regionals. But what you said! Yes! But why?? For the sake of lax. Club soccer costs a ton, numerous summer tournies, registration fees, travel hotels... The equipment is certainly less but outside of that, soccer is no less cost. So why is club soccer miles ahead of club lax? Honest question because I don’t see club as the font of all evil as many do here because I have seen the takeover of club soccer without destroying youth soccer. Why must this be so in lax??
The general mindset of soccer is "development" and the general mindset for lacrosse is "recruiting". Soccer provides about 4.5 hours a week of training and development for 9 to 10 months out of the year whereas lacrosse gives you maybe 3 hours a week for 5 or 6 weeks. If you want to train in the fall and winter, you have to pony more up and see lesser competition as the "athletes" are playing football, soccer and hockey in the fall. The competition in soccer is not skewed by age. Players play up in soccer, not down. Also, do you know many "soccer first" kids that re-classify? Soccer tournaments in the old days reflected the quality of the competition over time. The more success against good competition over time rewarded teams with high seeds in quality flytes. Lacrosse is driven by the good ol' boy network when tournaments roll around. Soccer doesn't have the same sort of good ol' boy network. The academy system has led to more of a closed circuit, albeit. Club soccer is not cheap and over the course of the year, travel and expenses add up. I am looking at the money paid to the soccer clubs versus lacrosse clubs. Food, hotel, gas etc is something else. USYS Soccer and now the USSF had a head start on club soccer. Having experienced both sports at a high level, the competition is more transparent in soccer and the mindset to develop is more than lip service, in most clubs. Keep in mind, with both, there are plenty of people looking to separate parents from their money with no regard to the player. Lacrosse is largely about getting a kid in the best school possible...... that thought is not as prevalent in soccer.... it is kind of crazy.
Last edited by Typical Lax Dad on Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

runrussellrun wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:57 am Could it be that soccer uses age verification, but club lacrosse "wins" tournaments with AA (presumed to be better ) 2021 players stepping onto a field against a bunch of 2023's.

How is hockey's growth? A club team playing in the wrong age group gets banned. A huge no no. US Lacrosse is the substitute teacher that gets laughed at. USA hockey is the teacher that deserves, and commands, respect.
Can you imagine a hockey club getting excited over a 17 year old playing against 15 year olds and then rewarding him for doing so?
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by HooDat »

pcowlax wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:06 am Yes, exactly, that is my point. I have extreme familiarity with the course of youth soccer over the past 35 year. It went from a sport no one outside of small niches had ever heard of to a very popular youth sport by the early 80s. At that point it was just town rec leagues, ala the halcyon days of lax everyone is referencing on here. It then moved to town travel teams, where after several years of rec the best players in the town would form a team that played against other towns, while rec still carried on for others. In the early 90s clubs really started to come up, which were geographic, in my small state of CT there were 3-4 top clubs splitting kids across the state mostly based on where they lived. This continued for a number of years before clubs expanded their reach, kids would “be on” a club in CT (Oakwood) or PA (Delco) and live in Ohio and just fly in to play in tournaments. This was the rule ( flying was of course not the norm but driving long distances obliterated the previous geographic basis) until the last 5-6 years when ODP completely took over. There are still the clubs but many of the very best are just locked into ODP from early years and the wondrous regionals tourney is lessened for it. AND YET, youth participation remains sky high. This is what I have been trying to say. There are MANY problems with club lax! But just having an emphasis on clubs, or an aggressive selecting out of top players, does not mean your sport needs to crash, or that your youth participation needs to crash, or that kids who are not joining top clubs at age 8 need to stop playing the sport.
The fundamental nature of the two games is so different that you can't compare them. Soccer can be played in some semblance of its intended form by kids who have never touched a soccer ball before. Lacrosse is NOT the same thing. There is a base skill level that at least some players must have to play it. You pull those kids out and the game of lacrosse is no longer fun past the very, very early stages.

More importantly, there have been enough rec league soccer kids to keep the rec leagues full for the kids who don't want to travel. From the 70's to today, I have yet to see soccer rec leagues suffer for participation.
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by HooDat »

add to that,

the rise of club soccer was in response to demand based on volume.

the rise of club lacrosse was based on the demand created through manufactured fear, and preying upon parent's belief that they could use money and an edge to get their kids an advantage.
STILL somewhere back in the day....

...and waiting/hoping for a tinfoil hat emoji......
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by sguy9 »

US Lacrosse is the substitute teacher that gets laughed at. USA hockey is the teacher that deserves, and commands, respect.
Very good point right here.
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by smoova »

runrussellrun wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:57 am Could it be that soccer uses age verification, but club lacrosse "wins" tournaments with AA (presumed to be better ) 2021 players stepping onto a field against a bunch of 2023's.

How is hockey's growth? A club team playing in the wrong age group gets banned. A huge no no. US Lacrosse is the substitute teacher that gets laughed at. USA hockey is the teacher that deserves, and commands, respect.
I don't agree with Fatty often, but he smashed the nail through the entire d@amn board with this post.
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

HooDat wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:52 pm add to that,

the rise of club soccer was in response to demand based on volume.

the rise of club lacrosse was based on the demand created through manufactured fear, and preying upon parent's belief that they could use money and an edge to get their kids an advantage.
Spot on.....the underlying dynamic is very different.
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palaxoff
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by palaxoff »

All youth sports are down across the country for a variety of reason. Lots of reasons why.

This article is right in lacrosse' s wheelhouse
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ts/574975/

For your soccer fans:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/14/spor ... cline.html
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by Wheels »

palaxoff wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:32 am First the current demographics probably explain the drop in youth/ rec. By 2025 they expect a 15% drop in the number of college students with continuing down trends after for possibly 10 years.

I brought up the issue of clubs, based on a conversation I had with some officials and coaches in SE PA. Five yeas ago most high schools had at least a Varsity and JV most carried a freshman team. This year there were very few freshman teams and some of the established high school programs had trouble fielding a JV the whole season. The number of kids trying out for teams probably dropped 30%. Officials were saying that the number of youth games they were doing has dropped as well. Most went from 1 or 2 a night to 1 or 2 a week. This could just be a South East PA thing but there were a number of possible reasons for this that were discussed. Clubs seemed to draw the most criticism.

Clubs seem to create the 24/7 full time lacrosse cycle which is burning out or frustrating kids that they look for other activities.
Clubs seem to push the scholarship message more and that tournament are where the college coaches are.
Clubs say they will make you better, I have seen some amazing club coaches who teach and make it fun, but they seem to be the exceptions.

As for the Bubble Bursting, the more I think about it, I'd say men's lacrosse will be stagnant or slow growing. Title Nine will continue to be the biggest reason it doesn't grow. Any school with a Football Program is almost a guaranteed NO and those are the schools needed to really grow the sport.
These demographic trends are happening, but the trends aren't distributed evenly across the country. From PA through Maine and west through the Great Lakes region, the number of high school students is decreasing. GenXers aren't having as many kids, GenX is a smaller age cohort than Boomer or GenY...those are just pure demographic issues that aren't related to economic issues to lead to people moving. When the numbers rebound 2025 and beyond, the demographic composition of high school students will not look like it does today. It will be more female and more hispanic. However, high school growth is happening in the south and west, which might actually explain some of the "growth hotbeds" we talk about on this board. As parents from the northeast and midwest move south and west for work-related reasons, they might be bringing the game with them. (Of course, current immigration political debates/policies can impact future growth of high school populations...the US generally relies on immigration for population growth because Americans tend to not have large families...a common thing for developed nations)

Given the relative cost effectiveness of lacrosse at the college level (12.6 scholarships at D1, probably $1M overall total operational budget including scholarship costs for most D1 programs and a lot less at lower levels), lacrosse will continue to be viewed as a good recruiting and enrollment management option for a lot of colleges and universities (40 kids on a roster, splitting 12.6 scholarships is a net revenue winner from an enrollment perspective even with cost of coaches, facilities, training, etc.). That leads me to think we will still see modest growth in the game as it's seen as a way to get into good colleges. Given the overall demographic trends in the US, I'm more bullish on the growth of soccer, though.
co2519
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by co2519 »

HS Participation here in CO (a new "hotbed", supposedly) was released today:

2018 - 3,714 boys
2019 - 3,179 boys

That's a drop of over 14%, which is a huge number...
pcowlax
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by pcowlax »

Per Wheels very insightful post, did they release the total # of high school boys in CO? Any drop in lax numbers here in CT is useless to analyze without taking into account the total falling population. Of course if the total population of high school boys drops and the lax numbers drop you can say that is lax numbers dropping, and of course it is, but that is different than saying the percentage of high schoolers playing lax is dropping because of clubs.
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Re: Has lacrosse “bubble” started to pop??

Post by wgdsr »

HooDat wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:51 pm
pcowlax wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:06 am Yes, exactly, that is my point. I have extreme familiarity with the course of youth soccer over the past 35 year. It went from a sport no one outside of small niches had ever heard of to a very popular youth sport by the early 80s. At that point it was just town rec leagues, ala the halcyon days of lax everyone is referencing on here. It then moved to town travel teams, where after several years of rec the best players in the town would form a team that played against other towns, while rec still carried on for others. In the early 90s clubs really started to come up, which were geographic, in my small state of CT there were 3-4 top clubs splitting kids across the state mostly based on where they lived. This continued for a number of years before clubs expanded their reach, kids would “be on” a club in CT (Oakwood) or PA (Delco) and live in Ohio and just fly in to play in tournaments. This was the rule ( flying was of course not the norm but driving long distances obliterated the previous geographic basis) until the last 5-6 years when ODP completely took over. There are still the clubs but many of the very best are just locked into ODP from early years and the wondrous regionals tourney is lessened for it. AND YET, youth participation remains sky high. This is what I have been trying to say. There are MANY problems with club lax! But just having an emphasis on clubs, or an aggressive selecting out of top players, does not mean your sport needs to crash, or that your youth participation needs to crash, or that kids who are not joining top clubs at age 8 need to stop playing the sport.
The fundamental nature of the two games is so different that you can't compare them. Soccer can be played in some semblance of its intended form by kids who have never touched a soccer ball before. Lacrosse is NOT the same thing. There is a base skill level that at least some players must have to play it. You pull those kids out and the game of lacrosse is no longer fun past the very, very early stages.

More importantly, there have been enough rec league soccer kids to keep the rec leagues full for the kids who don't want to travel. From the 70's to today, I have yet to see soccer rec leagues suffer for participation.

add to that,
the rise of club soccer was in response to demand based on volume.
the rise of club lacrosse was based on the demand created through manufactured fear, and preying upon parent's belief that they could use money and an edge to get their kids an advantage.
what hoo dat says here is spot on.
less than ten years ago, our youth system fed 10-11 high schools. there were 3 major "towns", and the majority of the players came from one town who administered and marketed the program.
forced a split so our town (3 high schools) would have our own organization, and what had been 80 boys over 8 grades for years became over 250 within several years. in the last 3+ years, that ~250 and 14 teams over 8 grades has dropped to 90 and 5 teams. again, to feed 3 high schools.
not coincidentally the local clubs, following baltimore's lead to make it a 365 day payday --- went to spring (and an abolishment of playing rec @ the same time) -- after first bleeding from summer to fall, to winter workouts and box.
our town did not fill the pockets to the tune of 160 players to these clubs. or even close. but they took enough of them, that their buddies (who either couldn't make the club teams yet, or could no longer play with their skilled friends in rec) --- bailed, sooner or later. no longer could get better thru osmosis. the whole construct of getting better together, year to year, evaporated.
taking out 10-15 kids, out of 4 teams at a bi-annual age group -- takes out a lot more of them.
if you have 6-8 teams per year in soccer (which is what our town rec league has, in the spring and the fall), where everyone can still play at a "base" level and it's still a similar game, kids can get better... losing even 10+ kids per grade doesn't matter in the impact of their willingness and incentive to play.

this was not a very difficult thing to predict. i've had this conversation and prognostication with people since before the mention of spring club leagues was even broached. many other people have as well. the numbers will be dropping substantially over the next 5 years in my opinion. us lacrosse will be in crisis management mode, shocked that they couldn't see it coming, and citing other sports as this being inevitable. they helped screw the pooch all along. high school teams will drop jv (they have already), then it will be dropped as a varsity sport at many places. not if, but when.

p.s. our schools' populations are growing annually, and have averaged over 1 new hs per year in the county to accommodate for over a decade.
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