2024

The odds are excellent that you will leave this forum hating someone.
User avatar
cradleandshoot
Posts: 15483
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:42 pm

Re: 2024

Post by cradleandshoot »

Seacoaster(1) wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 1:44 pm
cradleandshoot wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 1:32 pm So every wreath laying ceremony by every sitting POTUS at the tomb of the unknown soldier has to be by definition political in nature and to be used for re- election fodder. We can now expect the ANC groundskeepers to refuse a sitting POTUS to take photos of any wreath laying ceremonies from this point forward. How come none of the usual FLP morons on this forum aren't asking this simple question. How come Joe Biden or Kamala Harris were not invited to the wreath laying ceremony? Might that be because Joe Bidens incompetent leadership is the reason this young marine now resides at Arlington National Cemetery?
Well, there might be a little distinction, which you may have, like the blind squirrel, stumbled upon. It’s a military cemetery. The “sitting” President is the Commander in Chief of the Armed Services. Maybe he (or she!!) gets to be photographed.

Trump is, happily, a guy from Florida, by way of Queens.

I honestly can’t believe you guys can’t just say, “what a cheap, tawdry thing to do.” But you can’t. But you can flyspeck someone else’s 24 years of service. Really something.
Well trump was the former CiC who was invited to the ceremony by the deceased Marines family. From the video clips I saw none of them had anything to do with trump stumping for votes. He laid a wreath and put flowers on a young Marines grave. Where is the line supposed to be drawn? Had trump not been invited by the family it would be a different story. I suppose if trump had not accepted the families invitation you folks would be giving him a rash of chit about that as well. :roll:
We don't make mistakes, we have happy accidents.
Bob Ross:
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 34207
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: 2024

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

ggait wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 2:08 pm
cradleandshoot wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 1:32 pm So every wreath laying ceremony by every sitting POTUS at the tomb of the unknown soldier has to be by definition political in nature and to be used for re- election fodder. We can now expect the ANC groundskeepers to refuse a sitting POTUS to take photos of any wreath laying ceremonies from this point forward. How come none of the usual FLP morons on this forum aren't asking this simple question. How come Joe Biden or Kamala Harris were not invited to the wreath laying ceremony? Might that be because Joe Bidens incompetent leadership is the reason this young marine now resides at Arlington National Cemetery?
Trump is currently a private citizen. He holds no office currently. He is currently campaigning for office. His presence, by definition, can only be political. He violated civil and military laws/rules at Arlington. No private photographers allowed.

Apparently our warrior crew on here appear have all been rendered blind idiot partisan trolls by drinking too much MAGA kool aid.

Do you usually flash a smiling thumbs up over the grave of a fallen brother in arms? Do you like to pair that with an upside down Bible?

What the heck is wrong with you guys?
Image
“I wish you would!”
Seacoaster(1)
Posts: 5294
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2022 6:49 am

Re: 2024

Post by Seacoaster(1) »

cradleandshoot wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 2:26 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 1:44 pm
cradleandshoot wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 1:32 pm So every wreath laying ceremony by every sitting POTUS at the tomb of the unknown soldier has to be by definition political in nature and to be used for re- election fodder. We can now expect the ANC groundskeepers to refuse a sitting POTUS to take photos of any wreath laying ceremonies from this point forward. How come none of the usual FLP morons on this forum aren't asking this simple question. How come Joe Biden or Kamala Harris were not invited to the wreath laying ceremony? Might that be because Joe Bidens incompetent leadership is the reason this young marine now resides at Arlington National Cemetery?
Well, there might be a little distinction, which you may have, like the blind squirrel, stumbled upon. It’s a military cemetery. The “sitting” President is the Commander in Chief of the Armed Services. Maybe he (or she!!) gets to be photographed.

Trump is, happily, a guy from Florida, by way of Queens.

I honestly can’t believe you guys can’t just say, “what a cheap, tawdry thing to do.” But you can’t. But you can flyspeck someone else’s 24 years of service. Really something.
Well trump was the former CiC who was invited to the ceremony by the deceased Marines family. From the video clips I saw none of them had anything to do with trump stumping for votes. He laid a wreath and put flowers on a young Marines grave. Where is the line supposed to be drawn? Had trump not been invited by the family it would be a different story. I suppose if trump had not accepted the families invitation you folks would be giving him a rash of chit about that as well. :roll:
This statement: "From the video clips I saw none of them had anything to do with trump stumping for votes."

It is all over the social media generated by his campaign; all over tiktok, which you and I may not use, but which reaches millions of people.

This is completely delusional response. Just real doofus stuff. Seriously. What is wrong with you? Maybe time for you to take a little nap.
Seacoaster(1)
Posts: 5294
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2022 6:49 am

Re: 2024

Post by Seacoaster(1) »

Move aside little lady?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election ... tercation/

"The Army on Thursday defended a staff member at Arlington National Cemetery who found herself in a brief confrontation with two men working for the Trump campaign, saying in a statement that she “acted with professionalism” during the encounter and that her reputation has been “unfairly attacked” by the former president’s representatives.

The woman, whom Army officials have requested remain unidentified because of concerns for her safety, sought to restrict photography by the Trump campaign in accordance with federal regulations barring partisan activity at the cemetery, the final resting place of more than 400,000 U.S. troops, veterans and family members. Former president Donald Trump was there to mark the third anniversary of a suicide bombing during the evacuation of Afghanistan that killed 13 U.S. troops, and the families of two of those service members had invited him to accompany them to their loved one’s graves.

But cemetery staff had laid out guidelines in advance of the visit that made clear there was to be no official photography during a graveside visit in Section 60, a 14-acre plot where many veterans of recent wars are buried. After the employee sought to reinforce those guidelines, she was “abruptly pushed aside” by the people in Trump’s entourage, officials said in the statement.

The confrontation prompted the woman to file a report with law enforcement, but officials said she later decided not to press charges. “Therefore,” the statement says, “the Army considers this matter closed.”

The identities of the two campaign employees alleged to be involved have not been disclosed.

The Pentagon did not want to prevent the former president from attending Monday’s ceremony while he runs for office, defense officials familiar with the matter said, but it had been unambiguous with Trump’s campaign about its intent to enforce a federal law that states: “Memorial services and ceremonies at Army National Military Cemeteries will not include partisan political activities.”
ggait
Posts: 4435
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:23 pm

Re: 2024

Post by ggait »

Nate Silver now seems to be agreeing with NJ Bill about how dicey PA is going to be for Harris.

So perhaps Silver is no longer an eff-ing moron?

Note that the models currently are shaving Harris' polls to account for convention bounce effect. Once we get pre-debate in September we should get a clearer read from Skynet.

Harris is ahead by 3.8 points in our national poll tracker — up from 2.3 points the day before the Democratic Convention began — which does suggest some sort of convention bounce. However, she’s fallen to a 47.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College versus 52.4 percent for Donald Trump. Some of this is because of the convention bounce adjustment that the model applies to polls that were conducted during or after the DNC. It assumes Harris’s polls are somewhat inflated right now, in other words — just as it assumed Trump’s numbers were inflated after the RNC. While there’s a solid basis for this empirically, you could argue we’re under unusual circumstances because of her late entry into the race. So if you want to treat all of this as a little fuzzier than usual, I don’t really mind that. The good news for Harris is that if she merely holds her current numbers for a couple more weeks, she’ll begin to track up again in our forecast as the model will become more confident that she’s out of the convention bounce period.

There’s another, longer-term concern for Harris, though: it’s been a while since we’ve seen a poll showing her ahead in Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than a third of time in our model. Today, in fact, we added one post-DNC poll showing Pennsylvania as a tie, and another (conducted during the DNC) showing either a tie or Trump +1, depending on what version you prefer.

The model puts a lot of weight on this recent data because of all the changes in the race. And you can see why it thinks this is a problem for her: if she’s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November.

Now, all of this could change quickly with one or two high-quality polls showing Harris ahead in the Keystone State. The model is relying more heavily than I’d prefer on the Emerson College poll as it’s the only fully post-DNC/RFK data point — although note, again, that the immediate pre-DNC polls hadn’t been great for Harris in Pennsylvania either.

But for now, we now show a 17 percent chance that Harris wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, a big concern for her campaign all along. If she won the popular vote nationally by between 1 and 2 points, for instance, the model estimates that she’d still be a 70/30 underdog in the Electoral College.

It’s possible that RFK’s dropout and endorsement of Trump is having more effect in Pennsylvania and the other Rust Belt states than elsewhere, which have older, whiter and more disaffected electorates. And as I said, it’s also possible that all of this is noise and/or that the model is overdoing the convention bounce adjustment. But while Tim Walz has had a strong rollout as Harris’s VP, I can’t help but wonder what her numbers would look like with Josh Shapiro instead.
Boycott stupid. If you ignore the gator troll, eventually he'll just go back under his bridge.
User avatar
cradleandshoot
Posts: 15483
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:42 pm

Re: 2024

Post by cradleandshoot »

Seacoaster(1) wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 2:38 pm
cradleandshoot wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 2:26 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 1:44 pm
cradleandshoot wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 1:32 pm So every wreath laying ceremony by every sitting POTUS at the tomb of the unknown soldier has to be by definition political in nature and to be used for re- election fodder. We can now expect the ANC groundskeepers to refuse a sitting POTUS to take photos of any wreath laying ceremonies from this point forward. How come none of the usual FLP morons on this forum aren't asking this simple question. How come Joe Biden or Kamala Harris were not invited to the wreath laying ceremony? Might that be because Joe Bidens incompetent leadership is the reason this young marine now resides at Arlington National Cemetery?
Well, there might be a little distinction, which you may have, like the blind squirrel, stumbled upon. It’s a military cemetery. The “sitting” President is the Commander in Chief of the Armed Services. Maybe he (or she!!) gets to be photographed.

Trump is, happily, a guy from Florida, by way of Queens.

I honestly can’t believe you guys can’t just say, “what a cheap, tawdry thing to do.” But you can’t. But you can flyspeck someone else’s 24 years of service. Really something.
Well trump was the former CiC who was invited to the ceremony by the deceased Marines family. From the video clips I saw none of them had anything to do with trump stumping for votes. He laid a wreath and put flowers on a young Marines grave. Where is the line supposed to be drawn? Had trump not been invited by the family it would be a different story. I suppose if trump had not accepted the families invitation you folks would be giving him a rash of chit about that as well. :roll:
This statement: "From the video clips I saw none of them had anything to do with trump stumping for votes."

It is all over the social media generated by his campaign; all over tiktok, which you and I may not use, but which reaches millions of people.

This is completely delusional response. Just real doofus stuff. Seriously. What is wrong with you? Maybe time for you to take a little nap.
I saw a couple of clips of trump laying a wreath and putting flowers on a grave. I didn't see any trump/Vance campaign stuff. How come Biden and Harris weren't invited counselor? Care to take a stab at that? I'll wait until you wake up from the coma you've been in.
We don't make mistakes, we have happy accidents.
Bob Ross:
Laxxal22
Posts: 1394
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:58 pm

Re: 2024

Post by Laxxal22 »

Army issued a statement about it. They weren't pleased.
User avatar
cradleandshoot
Posts: 15483
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:42 pm

Re: 2024

Post by cradleandshoot »

Laxxal22 wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 3:38 pm Army issued a statement about it. They weren't pleased.
I'm sure the young Marines parents aren't pleased about where they have to go to visit their daughter.
We don't make mistakes, we have happy accidents.
Bob Ross:
User avatar
youthathletics
Posts: 15886
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:36 pm

Re: 2024

Post by youthathletics »

ggait wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 2:47 pm Nate Silver now seems to be agreeing with NJ Bill about how dicey PA is going to be for Harris.

So perhaps Silver is no longer an eff-ing moron?

Note that the models currently are shaving Harris' polls to account for convention bounce effect. Once we get pre-debate in September we should get a clearer read from Skynet.

Harris is ahead by 3.8 points in our national poll tracker — up from 2.3 points the day before the Democratic Convention began — which does suggest some sort of convention bounce. However, she’s fallen to a 47.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College versus 52.4 percent for Donald Trump. Some of this is because of the convention bounce adjustment that the model applies to polls that were conducted during or after the DNC. It assumes Harris’s polls are somewhat inflated right now, in other words — just as it assumed Trump’s numbers were inflated after the RNC. While there’s a solid basis for this empirically, you could argue we’re under unusual circumstances because of her late entry into the race. So if you want to treat all of this as a little fuzzier than usual, I don’t really mind that. The good news for Harris is that if she merely holds her current numbers for a couple more weeks, she’ll begin to track up again in our forecast as the model will become more confident that she’s out of the convention bounce period.

There’s another, longer-term concern for Harris, though: it’s been a while since we’ve seen a poll showing her ahead in Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than a third of time in our model. Today, in fact, we added one post-DNC poll showing Pennsylvania as a tie, and another (conducted during the DNC) showing either a tie or Trump +1, depending on what version you prefer.

The model puts a lot of weight on this recent data because of all the changes in the race. And you can see why it thinks this is a problem for her: if she’s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November.

Now, all of this could change quickly with one or two high-quality polls showing Harris ahead in the Keystone State. The model is relying more heavily than I’d prefer on the Emerson College poll as it’s the only fully post-DNC/RFK data point — although note, again, that the immediate pre-DNC polls hadn’t been great for Harris in Pennsylvania either.

But for now, we now show a 17 percent chance that Harris wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, a big concern for her campaign all along. If she won the popular vote nationally by between 1 and 2 points, for instance, the model estimates that she’d still be a 70/30 underdog in the Electoral College.

It’s possible that RFK’s dropout and endorsement of Trump is having more effect in Pennsylvania and the other Rust Belt states than elsewhere, which have older, whiter and more disaffected electorates. And as I said, it’s also possible that all of this is noise and/or that the model is overdoing the convention bounce adjustment. But while Tim Walz has had a strong rollout as Harris’s VP, I can’t help but wonder what her numbers would look like with Josh Shapiro instead.
In 2016 I believe HRC was up by ~7 points coming out of the convention in August. I think Harris has to maintain +4 points ahead to maintain a victory.
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy


“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
jhu72
Posts: 14472
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:52 pm

Re: 2024

Post by jhu72 »

Seacoaster(1) wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 9:01 am From the Times article:

In a statement from Sergeant Marckesano’s relatives after being contacted by The New York Times, his sister, Michele, said, “We fully support Staff Sergeant Darin Hoover’s family and the other families in their quest for answers and accountability regarding the Afghanistan withdrawal and the tragedy at Abbey Gate.”

“However,” she added, “according to our conversation with Arlington National Cemetery, the Trump campaign staffers did not adhere to the rules that were set in place for this visit to Staff Sergeant Hoover’s gravesite in Section 60, which lays directly next to my brother’s grave.”

Sergeant Marckesano’s sister continued, “We hope that those visiting this sacred site understand that these were real people who sacrificed for our freedom and that they are honored and respected accordingly.”

Apologists, carry on.

Postscript from Vance:

Vance: “You’re acting like Donald Trump filmed a TV commercial at a gravesite. He was there providing emotional support to brave Americans who lost loved ones and there happened to be a camera there.”

He was filming a TV commercial at a gravesite.
... yup!
Image STAND AGAINST FASCISM
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 34207
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: 2024

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

jhu72 wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 4:51 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 9:01 am From the Times article:

In a statement from Sergeant Marckesano’s relatives after being contacted by The New York Times, his sister, Michele, said, “We fully support Staff Sergeant Darin Hoover’s family and the other families in their quest for answers and accountability regarding the Afghanistan withdrawal and the tragedy at Abbey Gate.”

“However,” she added, “according to our conversation with Arlington National Cemetery, the Trump campaign staffers did not adhere to the rules that were set in place for this visit to Staff Sergeant Hoover’s gravesite in Section 60, which lays directly next to my brother’s grave.”

Sergeant Marckesano’s sister continued, “We hope that those visiting this sacred site understand that these were real people who sacrificed for our freedom and that they are honored and respected accordingly.”

Apologists, carry on.

Postscript from Vance:

Vance: “You’re acting like Donald Trump filmed a TV commercial at a gravesite. He was there providing emotional support to brave Americans who lost loved ones and there happened to be a camera there.”

He was filming a TV commercial at a gravesite.
... yup!
Why wasn’t Joe and Kamala there?
“I wish you would!”
ggait
Posts: 4435
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:23 pm

Re: 2024

Post by ggait »

Silver says Harris needs to be +2.5 points nationally to be slightly favored in the EC.

+3 is better. +4 points would be basically a lock.
Boycott stupid. If you ignore the gator troll, eventually he'll just go back under his bridge.
jhu72
Posts: 14472
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:52 pm

Re: 2024

Post by jhu72 »

ggait wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 2:47 pm Nate Silver now seems to be agreeing with NJ Bill about how dicey PA is going to be for Harris.

So perhaps Silver is no longer an eff-ing moron?

Note that the models currently are shaving Harris' polls to account for convention bounce effect. Once we get pre-debate in September we should get a clearer read from Skynet.

Harris is ahead by 3.8 points in our national poll tracker — up from 2.3 points the day before the Democratic Convention began — which does suggest some sort of convention bounce. However, she’s fallen to a 47.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College versus 52.4 percent for Donald Trump. Some of this is because of the convention bounce adjustment that the model applies to polls that were conducted during or after the DNC. It assumes Harris’s polls are somewhat inflated right now, in other words — just as it assumed Trump’s numbers were inflated after the RNC. While there’s a solid basis for this empirically, you could argue we’re under unusual circumstances because of her late entry into the race. So if you want to treat all of this as a little fuzzier than usual, I don’t really mind that. The good news for Harris is that if she merely holds her current numbers for a couple more weeks, she’ll begin to track up again in our forecast as the model will become more confident that she’s out of the convention bounce period.

There’s another, longer-term concern for Harris, though: it’s been a while since we’ve seen a poll showing her ahead in Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than a third of time in our model. Today, in fact, we added one post-DNC poll showing Pennsylvania as a tie, and another (conducted during the DNC) showing either a tie or Trump +1, depending on what version you prefer.

The model puts a lot of weight on this recent data because of all the changes in the race. And you can see why it thinks this is a problem for her: if she’s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November.

Now, all of this could change quickly with one or two high-quality polls showing Harris ahead in the Keystone State. The model is relying more heavily than I’d prefer on the Emerson College poll as it’s the only fully post-DNC/RFK data point — although note, again, that the immediate pre-DNC polls hadn’t been great for Harris in Pennsylvania either.

But for now, we now show a 17 percent chance that Harris wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, a big concern for her campaign all along. If she won the popular vote nationally by between 1 and 2 points, for instance, the model estimates that she’d still be a 70/30 underdog in the Electoral College.

It’s possible that RFK’s dropout and endorsement of Trump is having more effect in Pennsylvania and the other Rust Belt states than elsewhere, which have older, whiter and more disaffected electorates. And as I said, it’s also possible that all of this is noise and/or that the model is overdoing the convention bounce adjustment. But while Tim Walz has had a strong rollout as Harris’s VP, I can’t help but wonder what her numbers would look like with Josh Shapiro instead.
... Shapiro is currently in the process of p*ssing off the environmental base by backing a really questionable carbon storage "plan"
Image STAND AGAINST FASCISM
User avatar
Kismet
Posts: 5084
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: 2024

Post by Kismet »

cradleandshoot wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 2:56 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 2:38 pm
cradleandshoot wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 2:26 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 1:44 pm
cradleandshoot wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 1:32 pm So every wreath laying ceremony by every sitting POTUS at the tomb of the unknown soldier has to be by definition political in nature and to be used for re- election fodder. We can now expect the ANC groundskeepers to refuse a sitting POTUS to take photos of any wreath laying ceremonies from this point forward. How come none of the usual FLP morons on this forum aren't asking this simple question. How come Joe Biden or Kamala Harris were not invited to the wreath laying ceremony? Might that be because Joe Bidens incompetent leadership is the reason this young marine now resides at Arlington National Cemetery?
Well, there might be a little distinction, which you may have, like the blind squirrel, stumbled upon. It’s a military cemetery. The “sitting” President is the Commander in Chief of the Armed Services. Maybe he (or she!!) gets to be photographed.

Trump is, happily, a guy from Florida, by way of Queens.

I honestly can’t believe you guys can’t just say, “what a cheap, tawdry thing to do.” But you can’t. But you can flyspeck someone else’s 24 years of service. Really something.
Well trump was the former CiC who was invited to the ceremony by the deceased Marines family. From the video clips I saw none of them had anything to do with trump stumping for votes. He laid a wreath and put flowers on a young Marines grave. Where is the line supposed to be drawn? Had trump not been invited by the family it would be a different story. I suppose if trump had not accepted the families invitation you folks would be giving him a rash of chit about that as well. :roll:
Once again, reference the thumbs up picture at graveside which clearly shows the headstone of Master Sgt. Andrew Marckesano
who family was not appreciative of his headstone being readable in the picture as his grave is adjacent to the marines in question.

It is all over the social media generated by his campaign; all over tiktok, which you and I may not use, but which reaches millions of people.

This is completely delusional response. Just real doofus stuff. Seriously. What is wrong with you? Maybe time for you to take a little nap.
I saw a couple of clips of trump laying a wreath and putting flowers on a grave. I didn't see any trump/Vance campaign stuff. How come Biden and Harris weren't invited counselor? Care to take a stab at that? I'll wait until you wake up from the coma you've been in.
Once again, reference the thumbs up picture at graveside which clearly shows the headstone of Master Sgt. Andrew Marckesano
whose family was not appreciative of his headstone being readable in the picture as his grave is adjacent to the Marine in question.
Master Sgt. Andrew Marckesano only served SIX combat tours in Afghanistan with the 82nd Airborne earning multiple Bronze and Silver Stars before he took his own life after being reassigned to the Pentagon result of PTSD.

To echo others here - What's wrong with you people defending the garbage behavior by a bunch of garbage Fatso idiots and not excluding the biggest dirtbag of them all ? Along with his douchbag running mate.

There isn't enough lipstick in the universe to dress up these pigs....every last one of them
Last edited by Kismet on Thu Aug 29, 2024 6:47 pm, edited 3 times in total.
jhu72
Posts: 14472
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:52 pm

Re: 2024

Post by jhu72 »

jhu72 wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 5:00 pm
ggait wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 2:47 pm Nate Silver now seems to be agreeing with NJ Bill about how dicey PA is going to be for Harris.

So perhaps Silver is no longer an eff-ing moron?

Note that the models currently are shaving Harris' polls to account for convention bounce effect. Once we get pre-debate in September we should get a clearer read from Skynet.

Harris is ahead by 3.8 points in our national poll tracker — up from 2.3 points the day before the Democratic Convention began — which does suggest some sort of convention bounce. However, she’s fallen to a 47.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College versus 52.4 percent for Donald Trump. Some of this is because of the convention bounce adjustment that the model applies to polls that were conducted during or after the DNC. It assumes Harris’s polls are somewhat inflated right now, in other words — just as it assumed Trump’s numbers were inflated after the RNC. While there’s a solid basis for this empirically, you could argue we’re under unusual circumstances because of her late entry into the race. So if you want to treat all of this as a little fuzzier than usual, I don’t really mind that. The good news for Harris is that if she merely holds her current numbers for a couple more weeks, she’ll begin to track up again in our forecast as the model will become more confident that she’s out of the convention bounce period.

There’s another, longer-term concern for Harris, though: it’s been a while since we’ve seen a poll showing her ahead in Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than a third of time in our model. Today, in fact, we added one post-DNC poll showing Pennsylvania as a tie, and another (conducted during the DNC) showing either a tie or Trump +1, depending on what version you prefer.

The model puts a lot of weight on this recent data because of all the changes in the race. And you can see why it thinks this is a problem for her: if she’s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November.

Now, all of this could change quickly with one or two high-quality polls showing Harris ahead in the Keystone State. The model is relying more heavily than I’d prefer on the Emerson College poll as it’s the only fully post-DNC/RFK data point — although note, again, that the immediate pre-DNC polls hadn’t been great for Harris in Pennsylvania either.

But for now, we now show a 17 percent chance that Harris wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, a big concern for her campaign all along. If she won the popular vote nationally by between 1 and 2 points, for instance, the model estimates that she’d still be a 70/30 underdog in the Electoral College.

It’s possible that RFK’s dropout and endorsement of Trump is having more effect in Pennsylvania and the other Rust Belt states than elsewhere, which have older, whiter and more disaffected electorates. And as I said, it’s also possible that all of this is noise and/or that the model is overdoing the convention bounce adjustment. But while Tim Walz has had a strong rollout as Harris’s VP, I can’t help but wonder what her numbers would look like with Josh Shapiro instead.
... Shapiro is currently in the process of p*ssing off the environmental base by backing a really questionable carbon storage "plan"
... I am not worrying about this poll averaging.
Image STAND AGAINST FASCISM
jhu72
Posts: 14472
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:52 pm

Re: 2024

Post by jhu72 »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 4:54 pm
jhu72 wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 4:51 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 9:01 am From the Times article:

In a statement from Sergeant Marckesano’s relatives after being contacted by The New York Times, his sister, Michele, said, “We fully support Staff Sergeant Darin Hoover’s family and the other families in their quest for answers and accountability regarding the Afghanistan withdrawal and the tragedy at Abbey Gate.”

“However,” she added, “according to our conversation with Arlington National Cemetery, the Trump campaign staffers did not adhere to the rules that were set in place for this visit to Staff Sergeant Hoover’s gravesite in Section 60, which lays directly next to my brother’s grave.”

Sergeant Marckesano’s sister continued, “We hope that those visiting this sacred site understand that these were real people who sacrificed for our freedom and that they are honored and respected accordingly.”

Apologists, carry on.

Postscript from Vance:

Vance: “You’re acting like Donald Trump filmed a TV commercial at a gravesite. He was there providing emotional support to brave Americans who lost loved ones and there happened to be a camera there.”

He was filming a TV commercial at a gravesite.
... yup!
Why wasn’t Joe and Kamala there?
... they didn't approach the family to support this stunt, Trump did! He needs something to wash the taste of calling their sons and daughters losers and suckers out of their mouths. I am certain, this didn't do the job. Looks like Alfred E. Newman giving a thumbs up in the photo. The man has no concept of social grace. :roll:

Neither do his apologists apparently.
Image STAND AGAINST FASCISM
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 34207
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: 2024

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

jhu72 wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 5:17 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 4:54 pm
jhu72 wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 4:51 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 9:01 am From the Times article:

In a statement from Sergeant Marckesano’s relatives after being contacted by The New York Times, his sister, Michele, said, “We fully support Staff Sergeant Darin Hoover’s family and the other families in their quest for answers and accountability regarding the Afghanistan withdrawal and the tragedy at Abbey Gate.”

“However,” she added, “according to our conversation with Arlington National Cemetery, the Trump campaign staffers did not adhere to the rules that were set in place for this visit to Staff Sergeant Hoover’s gravesite in Section 60, which lays directly next to my brother’s grave.”

Sergeant Marckesano’s sister continued, “We hope that those visiting this sacred site understand that these were real people who sacrificed for our freedom and that they are honored and respected accordingly.”

Apologists, carry on.

Postscript from Vance:

Vance: “You’re acting like Donald Trump filmed a TV commercial at a gravesite. He was there providing emotional support to brave Americans who lost loved ones and there happened to be a camera there.”

He was filming a TV commercial at a gravesite.
... yup!
Why wasn’t Joe and Kamala there?
... they didn't approach the family to support this stunt, Trump did! He needs something to wash the taste of calling their sons and daughters losers and suckers out of their mouths. I am certain, this didn't do the job. Looks like Alfred E. Newman giving a thumbs up in the photo. The man has no concept of social grace. :roll:

Neither do his apologists apparently.
They don’t respect the military like Trump does.
“I wish you would!”
Seacoaster(1)
Posts: 5294
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2022 6:49 am

Re: 2024

Post by Seacoaster(1) »

32 CFR § 553.32(c) Memorial services and ceremonies at Army National Military Cemeteries will not include partisan political activities.

Pretty clear.
a fan
Posts: 19643
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:05 pm

Re: 2024

Post by a fan »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 6:36 pm
jhu72 wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 5:17 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 4:54 pm
jhu72 wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 4:51 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 9:01 am From the Times article:

In a statement from Sergeant Marckesano’s relatives after being contacted by The New York Times, his sister, Michele, said, “We fully support Staff Sergeant Darin Hoover’s family and the other families in their quest for answers and accountability regarding the Afghanistan withdrawal and the tragedy at Abbey Gate.”

“However,” she added, “according to our conversation with Arlington National Cemetery, the Trump campaign staffers did not adhere to the rules that were set in place for this visit to Staff Sergeant Hoover’s gravesite in Section 60, which lays directly next to my brother’s grave.”

Sergeant Marckesano’s sister continued, “We hope that those visiting this sacred site understand that these were real people who sacrificed for our freedom and that they are honored and respected accordingly.”

Apologists, carry on.

Postscript from Vance:

Vance: “You’re acting like Donald Trump filmed a TV commercial at a gravesite. He was there providing emotional support to brave Americans who lost loved ones and there happened to be a camera there.”

He was filming a TV commercial at a gravesite.
... yup!
Why wasn’t Joe and Kamala there?
... they didn't approach the family to support this stunt, Trump did! He needs something to wash the taste of calling their sons and daughters losers and suckers out of their mouths. I am certain, this didn't do the job. Looks like Alfred E. Newman giving a thumbs up in the photo. The man has no concept of social grace. :roll:

Neither do his apologists apparently.
They don’t respect the military like Trump does.
There is no bottom. Not one Republican will object to Trump breaking military ethics rules at freaking Arlington, of all places.

After lecturing the world about honor in service when it came to Walz not five F'ing minutes ago.

These people can't go ten minutes without some kind of hypocrisy.
Typical Lax Dad
Posts: 34207
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:10 pm

Re: 2024

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

a fan wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 7:39 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 6:36 pm
jhu72 wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 5:17 pm
Typical Lax Dad wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 4:54 pm
jhu72 wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 4:51 pm
Seacoaster(1) wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2024 9:01 am From the Times article:

In a statement from Sergeant Marckesano’s relatives after being contacted by The New York Times, his sister, Michele, said, “We fully support Staff Sergeant Darin Hoover’s family and the other families in their quest for answers and accountability regarding the Afghanistan withdrawal and the tragedy at Abbey Gate.”

“However,” she added, “according to our conversation with Arlington National Cemetery, the Trump campaign staffers did not adhere to the rules that were set in place for this visit to Staff Sergeant Hoover’s gravesite in Section 60, which lays directly next to my brother’s grave.”

Sergeant Marckesano’s sister continued, “We hope that those visiting this sacred site understand that these were real people who sacrificed for our freedom and that they are honored and respected accordingly.”

Apologists, carry on.

Postscript from Vance:

Vance: “You’re acting like Donald Trump filmed a TV commercial at a gravesite. He was there providing emotional support to brave Americans who lost loved ones and there happened to be a camera there.”

He was filming a TV commercial at a gravesite.
... yup!
Why wasn’t Joe and Kamala there?
... they didn't approach the family to support this stunt, Trump did! He needs something to wash the taste of calling their sons and daughters losers and suckers out of their mouths. I am certain, this didn't do the job. Looks like Alfred E. Newman giving a thumbs up in the photo. The man has no concept of social grace. :roll:

Neither do his apologists apparently.
They don’t respect the military like Trump does.
There is no bottom. Not one Republican will object to Trump breaking military ethics rules at freaking Arlington, of all places.

After lecturing the world about honor in service when it came to Walz not five F'ing minutes ago.

These people can't go ten minutes without some kind of hypocrisy.
They are who they are. It was apparent to me years ago. I have run across them all my life. Easy to spot.
“I wish you would!”
Post Reply

Return to “POLITICS”