Israel and West Bank Settlements

[jhu72]

Iran is signaling they are willing to negotiate with the US over their nuclear program. Some of the leaders who worked the 2015 deal blown up by Orange Duce, have been restored to power.

As I stated at the time, this tells you how bad US Intel is when it comes to Iran. We were told Iran was MONTHS from getting the bomb.

That was almost ten freaking years ago. Whoops. Hard to make diplomatic choices when we're that out of whack with intel. They didn't miss the target, or the tree...they missed the whole forest.

... they are closer now than then. They have not rushed the program, if they wanted they could have the bomb by now if they wanted to dedicate the resources. They stood still for a couple years after we backed out of the deal. They did not push towards the goal immediately.
Recall, they moved ahead in meeting our conditions as far as giving up the little near weapons grade refined Uranium they possessed. They were left with low grade, no where near weapons grade Uranium. It would have taken them years to replace the near weapons grade that they gave up to get the deal signed. They could have had a bomb in a few months at the time. Once they gave up their near weapons grade material, it would take them a few years to replenish that stock. They could easily have replaced it by now if they had wanted to.

I have no idea where they are now -- I think US intel has a better idea than you do I suspect. I think it pays to listen to what they have to say. Obviously the deal has moved.

[jhu72]

Iran is signaling they are willing to negotiate with the US over their nuclear program. Some of the leaders who worked the 2015 deal blown up by Orange Duce, have been restored to power.

As I stated at the time, this tells you how bad US Intel is when it comes to Iran. We were told Iran was MONTHS from getting the bomb.

That was almost ten freaking years ago. Whoops. Hard to make diplomatic choices when we're that out of whack with intel. They didn't miss the target, or the tree...they missed the whole forest.

hmmm, you understand that's not what it means?

The shortening of time estimated to bomb is the time it would take to produce a weapon, IF/WHEN they decide to produce that weapon.

It's shortened by a number of things, but most notably sufficiently refined material. That's a separate decision as to whether to refine it or not, but it needn't mean a bomb will actually be produced. Same for other components.

I get it that right wing troglodytes don't understand, but you should, right?

What do you mean by "It"?

All I'm reminding folks is that we were told by US intel back in 2015 that Iran was "months" from going live with a bomb. We weren't told we were months from some refinement goal. We were told they were months from having a live bomb....ready to go.

yes, and the time has shortened...what we were NOT told is that they had decided to actually produce a bomb...had they made that decision 10 years ago it would have happened roughly as intel said was the distance to a bomb.

They've been more than capable of actually producing the bomb.

But they clearly decided that simply having the capacity was an effective threat. And possibly also considered that actually producing one could provide an excuse for an Israeli preemptive strike on that facility.

But they've been inching closer so as to continue to posture the potential.

Any estimate to how long it would take Japan to "go" nuclear, i.e. produce a weapon including delivery vehicle once they decided to do it? My bet is a few hours -- I wager they have a series of components ready for final assembly. The Fukushima disaster demonstrated they had a hell of lot of fissile or near fissile material at hand. China should be scared shite less. Looking like the non-proliferation effort might be waning.

I would agree with this assessment. I would be a very short time for them.

[jhu72]

Piss up a rope, Bibi. How’s that discussion work for you? Pointed enough?

““Although Filant’s role is akin to a security or law enforcement officer, he has engaged in malign activities outside the scope of his authority,” Miller said.

“In February 2024, he led a group of armed settlers to set up roadblocks and conduct patrols to pursue and attack Palestinians in their lands and forcefully expel them from their lands.”

Netanyahu’s office issued a terse and critical response on Wednesday night, saying: “Israel views with utmost severity the imposition of sanctions on citizens of Israel. The issue is in a pointed discussion with the US.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/artic ... -west-bank


Fcuking thugs.

... this is where my very culturally Jewish daughter stands as well. Forkem! Much to my surprise!

[a fan]

Iran is signaling they are willing to negotiate with the US over their nuclear program. Some of the leaders who worked the 2015 deal blown up by Orange Duce, have been restored to power.

As I stated at the time, this tells you how bad US Intel is when it comes to Iran. We were told Iran was MONTHS from getting the bomb.

That was almost ten freaking years ago. Whoops. Hard to make diplomatic choices when we're that out of whack with intel. They didn't miss the target, or the tree...they missed the whole forest.

... they are closer now than then. They have not rushed the program, if they wanted they could have the bomb by now if they wanted to dedicate the resources. They stood still for a couple years after we backed out of the deal. They did not push towards the goal immediately.
Recall, they moved ahead in meeting our conditions as far as giving up the little near weapons grade refined Uranium they possessed. They were left with low grade, no where near weapons grade Uranium. It would have taken them years to replace the near weapons grade that they gave up to get the deal signed. They could have had a bomb in a few months at the time. Once they gave up their near weapons grade material, it would take them a few years to replenish that stock. They could easily have replaced it by now if they had wanted to.

I have no idea where they are now -- I think US intel has a better idea than you do I suspect. I think it pays to listen to what they have to say. Obviously the deal has moved.

Well considering I have no clue when they'll have a bomb......but come on, they were off by nearly a decade now.

I feel like "give or take five years" is a fair intelligence window, don't you think? That's not asking a whole lot. And the intel doesn't just include the "can they do it"....in includes the "do they WANT to do it part".

It was an intel miss. And I'm thrilled they don't have one, because who the F knows what Israel would do if they were deemed close to having one.

[MDlaxfan76]

Iran is signaling they are willing to negotiate with the US over their nuclear program. Some of the leaders who worked the 2015 deal blown up by Orange Duce, have been restored to power.

As I stated at the time, this tells you how bad US Intel is when it comes to Iran. We were told Iran was MONTHS from getting the bomb.

That was almost ten freaking years ago. Whoops. Hard to make diplomatic choices when we're that out of whack with intel. They didn't miss the target, or the tree...they missed the whole forest.

... they are closer now than then. They have not rushed the program, if they wanted they could have the bomb by now if they wanted to dedicate the resources. They stood still for a couple years after we backed out of the deal. They did not push towards the goal immediately.
Recall, they moved ahead in meeting our conditions as far as giving up the little near weapons grade refined Uranium they possessed. They were left with low grade, no where near weapons grade Uranium. It would have taken them years to replace the near weapons grade that they gave up to get the deal signed. They could have had a bomb in a few months at the time. Once they gave up their near weapons grade material, it would take them a few years to replenish that stock. They could easily have replaced it by now if they had wanted to.

I have no idea where they are now -- I think US intel has a better idea than you do I suspect. I think it pays to listen to what they have to say. Obviously the deal has moved.

Well considering I have no clue when they'll have a bomb......but come on, they were off by nearly a decade now.

I feel like "give or take five years" is a fair intelligence window, don't you think? That's not asking a whole lot. And the intel doesn't just include the "can they do it"....in includes the "do they WANT to do it part".

It was an intel miss. And I'm thrilled they don't have one, because who the F knows what Israel would do if they were deemed close to having one.

Come on, did you read the explanations?
You are usually way, way more on point.

You missed the mark on this one.

[a fan]

Iran is signaling they are willing to negotiate with the US over their nuclear program. Some of the leaders who worked the 2015 deal blown up by Orange Duce, have been restored to power.

As I stated at the time, this tells you how bad US Intel is when it comes to Iran. We were told Iran was MONTHS from getting the bomb.

That was almost ten freaking years ago. Whoops. Hard to make diplomatic choices when we're that out of whack with intel. They didn't miss the target, or the tree...they missed the whole forest.

... they are closer now than then. They have not rushed the program, if they wanted they could have the bomb by now if they wanted to dedicate the resources. They stood still for a couple years after we backed out of the deal. They did not push towards the goal immediately.
Recall, they moved ahead in meeting our conditions as far as giving up the little near weapons grade refined Uranium they possessed. They were left with low grade, no where near weapons grade Uranium. It would have taken them years to replace the near weapons grade that they gave up to get the deal signed. They could have had a bomb in a few months at the time. Once they gave up their near weapons grade material, it would take them a few years to replenish that stock. They could easily have replaced it by now if they had wanted to.

I have no idea where they are now -- I think US intel has a better idea than you do I suspect. I think it pays to listen to what they have to say. Obviously the deal has moved.

Well considering I have no clue when they'll have a bomb......but come on, they were off by nearly a decade now.

I feel like "give or take five years" is a fair intelligence window, don't you think? That's not asking a whole lot. And the intel doesn't just include the "can they do it"....in includes the "do they WANT to do it part".

It was an intel miss. And I'm thrilled they don't have one, because who the F knows what Israel would do if they were deemed close to having one.

Come on, did you read the explanations?
You are usually way, way more on point.

You missed the mark on this one.

I did read it. JHU is making claims that we're plainly unsure of. "They are closer now than then".

Really? How do we know that?

Do you guys want me to pull up the reports from 2015? I have no idea why you guys are digging your heels in, but we were told that they were months away....and that was 9 years ago. You guys are acting like i'm nuts for saying the intel was way off.

I'm in full understanding that JHU is a physicist, and understands the technical stuff far better than most people on Earth. All I'm questioning is the intel that is telling us what they think is going on over there.

Sorry, but it's not crazy to question its veracity after missing the mark so badly before. Do we know for certainty that they "gave up their weapons grade material"? No. We don't. That's all I'm saying......don't know why this is even a question.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Iran is signaling they are willing to negotiate with the US over their nuclear program. Some of the leaders who worked the 2015 deal blown up by Orange Duce, have been restored to power.

As I stated at the time, this tells you how bad US Intel is when it comes to Iran. We were told Iran was MONTHS from getting the bomb.

That was almost ten freaking years ago. Whoops. Hard to make diplomatic choices when we're that out of whack with intel. They didn't miss the target, or the tree...they missed the whole forest.

... they are closer now than then. They have not rushed the program, if they wanted they could have the bomb by now if they wanted to dedicate the resources. They stood still for a couple years after we backed out of the deal. They did not push towards the goal immediately.
Recall, they moved ahead in meeting our conditions as far as giving up the little near weapons grade refined Uranium they possessed. They were left with low grade, no where near weapons grade Uranium. It would have taken them years to replace the near weapons grade that they gave up to get the deal signed. They could have had a bomb in a few months at the time. Once they gave up their near weapons grade material, it would take them a few years to replenish that stock. They could easily have replaced it by now if they had wanted to.

I have no idea where they are now -- I think US intel has a better idea than you do I suspect. I think it pays to listen to what they have to say. Obviously the deal has moved.

Well considering I have no clue when they'll have a bomb......but come on, they were off by nearly a decade now.

I feel like "give or take five years" is a fair intelligence window, don't you think? That's not asking a whole lot. And the intel doesn't just include the "can they do it"....in includes the "do they WANT to do it part".

It was an intel miss. And I'm thrilled they don't have one, because who the F knows what Israel would do if they were deemed close to having one.

Come on, did you read the explanations?
You are usually way, way more on point.

You missed the mark on this one.

I did read it. JHU is making claims that we're plainly unsure of. "They are closer now than then".

Really? How do we know that?

Do you guys want me to pull up the reports from 2015? I have no idea why you guys are digging your heels in, but we were told that they were months away....and that was 9 years ago. You guys are acting like i'm nuts for saying the intel was way off.

I'm in full understanding that JHU is a physicist, and understands the technical stuff far better than most people on Earth. All I'm questioning is the intel that is telling us what they think is going on over there.

Sorry, but it's not crazy to question its veracity after missing the mark so badly before. Do we know for certainty that they "gave up their weapons grade material"? No. We don't. That's all I'm saying......don't know why this is even a question.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 024-04-18/

Good explanation of the timeline.

[MDlaxfan76]

Iran is signaling they are willing to negotiate with the US over their nuclear program. Some of the leaders who worked the 2015 deal blown up by Orange Duce, have been restored to power.

As I stated at the time, this tells you how bad US Intel is when it comes to Iran. We were told Iran was MONTHS from getting the bomb.

That was almost ten freaking years ago. Whoops. Hard to make diplomatic choices when we're that out of whack with intel. They didn't miss the target, or the tree...they missed the whole forest.

... they are closer now than then. They have not rushed the program, if they wanted they could have the bomb by now if they wanted to dedicate the resources. They stood still for a couple years after we backed out of the deal. They did not push towards the goal immediately.
Recall, they moved ahead in meeting our conditions as far as giving up the little near weapons grade refined Uranium they possessed. They were left with low grade, no where near weapons grade Uranium. It would have taken them years to replace the near weapons grade that they gave up to get the deal signed. They could have had a bomb in a few months at the time. Once they gave up their near weapons grade material, it would take them a few years to replenish that stock. They could easily have replaced it by now if they had wanted to.

I have no idea where they are now -- I think US intel has a better idea than you do I suspect. I think it pays to listen to what they have to say. Obviously the deal has moved.

Well considering I have no clue when they'll have a bomb......but come on, they were off by nearly a decade now.

I feel like "give or take five years" is a fair intelligence window, don't you think? That's not asking a whole lot. And the intel doesn't just include the "can they do it"....in includes the "do they WANT to do it part".

It was an intel miss. And I'm thrilled they don't have one, because who the F knows what Israel would do if they were deemed close to having one.

Come on, did you read the explanations?
You are usually way, way more on point.

You missed the mark on this one.

I did read it. JHU is making claims that we're plainly unsure of. "They are closer now than then".

Really? How do we know that?

Do you guys want me to pull up the reports from 2015? I have no idea why you guys are digging your heels in, but we were told that they were months away....and that was 9 years ago. You guys are acting like i'm nuts for saying the intel was way off.

I'm in full understanding that JHU is a physicist, and understands the technical stuff far better than most people on Earth. All I'm questioning is the intel that is telling us what they think is going on over there.

Sorry, but it's not crazy to question its veracity after missing the mark so badly before. Do we know for certainty that they "gave up their weapons grade material"? No. We don't. That's all I'm saying......don't know why this is even a question.

Come on, next you will be telling us you trust the Ayatollah more than our IC.
At least you won’t be standing next to the Ayatollah.

Certainty is never achieved in intelligence. But, yes, high degrees of confidence is the goal.

Absent contrary proof, I think our ICs assessment of the time required from their status 10 years ago was likely accurate or close. I also think their assessment of Iranian actions post deal were likely right too…they backed off…and have moved closer since then. That is Not a prediction that they have decided to complete a weapon or weapons. Just a signal…

Your logic depends on an untrue assertion that our IC assessment meant the Iranians had decided to complete a weapon and thus must have been wrong because they haven’t done so. As if they were incapable in the first place.

That logic is flat wrong.

[a fan]

Iran is signaling they are willing to negotiate with the US over their nuclear program. Some of the leaders who worked the 2015 deal blown up by Orange Duce, have been restored to power.

As I stated at the time, this tells you how bad US Intel is when it comes to Iran. We were told Iran was MONTHS from getting the bomb.

That was almost ten freaking years ago. Whoops. Hard to make diplomatic choices when we're that out of whack with intel. They didn't miss the target, or the tree...they missed the whole forest.

... they are closer now than then. They have not rushed the program, if they wanted they could have the bomb by now if they wanted to dedicate the resources. They stood still for a couple years after we backed out of the deal. They did not push towards the goal immediately.
Recall, they moved ahead in meeting our conditions as far as giving up the little near weapons grade refined Uranium they possessed. They were left with low grade, no where near weapons grade Uranium. It would have taken them years to replace the near weapons grade that they gave up to get the deal signed. They could have had a bomb in a few months at the time. Once they gave up their near weapons grade material, it would take them a few years to replenish that stock. They could easily have replaced it by now if they had wanted to.

I have no idea where they are now -- I think US intel has a better idea than you do I suspect. I think it pays to listen to what they have to say. Obviously the deal has moved.

Well considering I have no clue when they'll have a bomb......but come on, they were off by nearly a decade now.

I feel like "give or take five years" is a fair intelligence window, don't you think? That's not asking a whole lot. And the intel doesn't just include the "can they do it"....in includes the "do they WANT to do it part".

It was an intel miss. And I'm thrilled they don't have one, because who the F knows what Israel would do if they were deemed close to having one.

Come on, did you read the explanations?
You are usually way, way more on point.

You missed the mark on this one.

I did read it. JHU is making claims that we're plainly unsure of. "They are closer now than then".

Really? How do we know that?

Do you guys want me to pull up the reports from 2015? I have no idea why you guys are digging your heels in, but we were told that they were months away....and that was 9 years ago. You guys are acting like i'm nuts for saying the intel was way off.

I'm in full understanding that JHU is a physicist, and understands the technical stuff far better than most people on Earth. All I'm questioning is the intel that is telling us what they think is going on over there.

Sorry, but it's not crazy to question its veracity after missing the mark so badly before. Do we know for certainty that they "gave up their weapons grade material"? No. We don't. That's all I'm saying......don't know why this is even a question.

Come on, next you will be telling us you trust the Ayatollah more than our IC.
At least you won’t be standing next to the Ayatollah.

Certainty is never achieved in intelligence. But, yes, high degrees of confidence is the goal.

Absent contrary proof, I think our ICs assessment of the time required from their status 10 years ago was likely accurate or close. I also think their assessment of Iranian actions post deal were likely right too…they backed off…and have moved closer since then. That is Not a prediction that they have decided to complete a weapon or weapons. Just a signal…

Your logic depends on an untrue assertion that our IC assessment meant the Iranians had decided to complete a weapon and thus must have been wrong because they haven’t done so. As if they were incapable in the first place.

I can lay about 100 different combinations as to what's actually happening vs. what we think is happening.

Do you want me to walk you through it, and bore you to death?

What makes you think that our Iran intel is 99% accurate vs. 50%? Or that our intel in 2024 is better (or worse) than it was in 2015. Hope? The logic fail is making assumptions when history has told us that military intel in hostile dictatorships is shoddy at best.

Do you remember what we were just told about how awesome the Russian army was? And some whiskey producer a half a world a way made the call that the military wonks couldn't BEFORE it went down "Hey, you need MONEY to maintain nukes weapons and troops needed for conquest.....not only is Russian GDP less than Italy's, Putin and his buds are kleptocrats, and likely steal much of the money that's supposed to go to the military.

I was right, the US military intel wonks were wrong, and they started drafting old freaking men just months into their entirely stalled conquest of a 34th rate military power. How's that war going for Putin. And do you remember me asking: "how the F does Putin think he's going to HOLD the land he has conquered for years?"

Yet you want me to take our assessment of Iran's capabilities and desires at face value? Yeah, sorry. Not doing it.

[cradleandshoot]

Iran is signaling they are willing to negotiate with the US over their nuclear program. Some of the leaders who worked the 2015 deal blown up by Orange Duce, have been restored to power.

As I stated at the time, this tells you how bad US Intel is when it comes to Iran. We were told Iran was MONTHS from getting the bomb.

That was almost ten freaking years ago. Whoops. Hard to make diplomatic choices when we're that out of whack with intel. They didn't miss the target, or the tree...they missed the whole forest.

... they are closer now than then. They have not rushed the program, if they wanted they could have the bomb by now if they wanted to dedicate the resources. They stood still for a couple years after we backed out of the deal. They did not push towards the goal immediately.
Recall, they moved ahead in meeting our conditions as far as giving up the little near weapons grade refined Uranium they possessed. They were left with low grade, no where near weapons grade Uranium. It would have taken them years to replace the near weapons grade that they gave up to get the deal signed. They could have had a bomb in a few months at the time. Once they gave up their near weapons grade material, it would take them a few years to replenish that stock. They could easily have replaced it by now if they had wanted to.

I have no idea where they are now -- I think US intel has a better idea than you do I suspect. I think it pays to listen to what they have to say. Obviously the deal has moved.

Well considering I have no clue when they'll have a bomb......but come on, they were off by nearly a decade now.

I feel like "give or take five years" is a fair intelligence window, don't you think? That's not asking a whole lot. And the intel doesn't just include the "can they do it"....in includes the "do they WANT to do it part".

It was an intel miss. And I'm thrilled they don't have one, because who the F knows what Israel would do if they were deemed close to having one.

Come on, did you read the explanations?
You are usually way, way more on point.

You missed the mark on this one.

I did read it. JHU is making claims that we're plainly unsure of. "They are closer now than then".

Really? How do we know that?

Do you guys want me to pull up the reports from 2015? I have no idea why you guys are digging your heels in, but we were told that they were months away....and that was 9 years ago. You guys are acting like i'm nuts for saying the intel was way off.

I'm in full understanding that JHU is a physicist, and understands the technical stuff far better than most people on Earth. All I'm questioning is the intel that is telling us what they think is going on over there.

Sorry, but it's not crazy to question its veracity after missing the mark so badly before. Do we know for certainty that they "gave up their weapons grade material"? No. We don't. That's all I'm saying......don't know why this is even a question.

Come on, next you will be telling us you trust the Ayatollah more than our IC.
At least you won’t be standing next to the Ayatollah.

Certainty is never achieved in intelligence. But, yes, high degrees of confidence is the goal.

Absent contrary proof, I think our ICs assessment of the time required from their status 10 years ago was likely accurate or close. I also think their assessment of Iranian actions post deal were likely right too…they backed off…and have moved closer since then. That is Not a prediction that they have decided to complete a weapon or weapons. Just a signal…

Your logic depends on an untrue assertion that our IC assessment meant the Iranians had decided to complete a weapon and thus must have been wrong because they haven’t done so. As if they were incapable in the first place.

I can lay about 100 different combinations as to what's actually happening vs. what we think is happening.

Do you want me to walk you through it, and bore you to death?

What makes you think that our Iran intel is 99% accurate vs. 50%? Or that our intel in 2024 is better (or worse) than it was in 2015. Hope? The logic fail is making assumptions when history has told us that military intel in hostile dictatorships is shoddy at best.

Do you remember what we were just told about how awesome the Russian army was? And some whiskey producer a half a world a way made the call that the military wonks couldn't BEFORE it went down "Hey, you need MONEY to maintain nukes weapons and troops needed for conquest.....not only is Russian GDP less than Italy's, Putin and his buds are kleptocrats, and likely steal much of the money that's supposed to go to the military.

I was right, the US military intel wonks were wrong, and they started drafting old freaking men just months into their entirely stalled conquest of a 34th rate military power. How's that war going for Putin. And do you remember me asking: "how the F does Putin think he's going to HOLD the land he has conquered for years?"

Yet you want me to take our assessment of Iran's capabilities and desires at face value? Yeah, sorry. Not doing it.

How the eff does our intelligence know where Iran stands in their development of nukes? That is probably right up there with our intelligence telling us that Sadam had weapons of mass destruction. We started a war based on that intelligence that Colin Powell told us we had. The only correct assertation is the US doesn't know jack chit about what capabilities Iran may or may not possess. Unless of course our government knows something they aren't sharing with the American people.

[OCanada]

You need to study up on how intelligence is developed and from what sources. Our intelligence services do not function in a vacuum. That WOULD be some stupid chit

[NattyBohChamps04]

And politics never gets injected into our intelligence and what we do with it... definitely didn't in the lead up to the Iraq war...

[jhu72]

Iran is signaling they are willing to negotiate with the US over their nuclear program. Some of the leaders who worked the 2015 deal blown up by Orange Duce, have been restored to power.

As I stated at the time, this tells you how bad US Intel is when it comes to Iran. We were told Iran was MONTHS from getting the bomb.

That was almost ten freaking years ago. Whoops. Hard to make diplomatic choices when we're that out of whack with intel. They didn't miss the target, or the tree...they missed the whole forest.

... they are closer now than then. They have not rushed the program, if they wanted they could have the bomb by now if they wanted to dedicate the resources. They stood still for a couple years after we backed out of the deal. They did not push towards the goal immediately.
Recall, they moved ahead in meeting our conditions as far as giving up the little near weapons grade refined Uranium they possessed. They were left with low grade, no where near weapons grade Uranium. It would have taken them years to replace the near weapons grade that they gave up to get the deal signed. They could have had a bomb in a few months at the time. Once they gave up their near weapons grade material, it would take them a few years to replenish that stock. They could easily have replaced it by now if they had wanted to.

I have no idea where they are now -- I think US intel has a better idea than you do I suspect. I think it pays to listen to what they have to say. Obviously the deal has moved.

Well considering I have no clue when they'll have a bomb......but come on, they were off by nearly a decade now.

I feel like "give or take five years" is a fair intelligence window, don't you think? That's not asking a whole lot. And the intel doesn't just include the "can they do it"....in includes the "do they WANT to do it part".

It was an intel miss. And I'm thrilled they don't have one, because who the F knows what Israel would do if they were deemed close to having one.

... they have claimed all along, they weren't pursuing a bomb. I guess there is some chance they weren't lying.

[a fan]

Iran is signaling they are willing to negotiate with the US over their nuclear program. Some of the leaders who worked the 2015 deal blown up by Orange Duce, have been restored to power.

As I stated at the time, this tells you how bad US Intel is when it comes to Iran. We were told Iran was MONTHS from getting the bomb.

That was almost ten freaking years ago. Whoops. Hard to make diplomatic choices when we're that out of whack with intel. They didn't miss the target, or the tree...they missed the whole forest.

... they are closer now than then. They have not rushed the program, if they wanted they could have the bomb by now if they wanted to dedicate the resources. They stood still for a couple years after we backed out of the deal. They did not push towards the goal immediately.
Recall, they moved ahead in meeting our conditions as far as giving up the little near weapons grade refined Uranium they possessed. They were left with low grade, no where near weapons grade Uranium. It would have taken them years to replace the near weapons grade that they gave up to get the deal signed. They could have had a bomb in a few months at the time. Once they gave up their near weapons grade material, it would take them a few years to replenish that stock. They could easily have replaced it by now if they had wanted to.

I have no idea where they are now -- I think US intel has a better idea than you do I suspect. I think it pays to listen to what they have to say. Obviously the deal has moved.

Well considering I have no clue when they'll have a bomb......but come on, they were off by nearly a decade now.

I feel like "give or take five years" is a fair intelligence window, don't you think? That's not asking a whole lot. And the intel doesn't just include the "can they do it"....in includes the "do they WANT to do it part".

It was an intel miss. And I'm thrilled they don't have one, because who the F knows what Israel would do if they were deemed close to having one.

... they have claimed all along, they weren't pursuing a bomb. I guess there is some chance they weren't lying.

Yup.

[MDlaxfan76]

Iran is signaling they are willing to negotiate with the US over their nuclear program. Some of the leaders who worked the 2015 deal blown up by Orange Duce, have been restored to power.

As I stated at the time, this tells you how bad US Intel is when it comes to Iran. We were told Iran was MONTHS from getting the bomb.

That was almost ten freaking years ago. Whoops. Hard to make diplomatic choices when we're that out of whack with intel. They didn't miss the target, or the tree...they missed the whole forest.

... they are closer now than then. They have not rushed the program, if they wanted they could have the bomb by now if they wanted to dedicate the resources. They stood still for a couple years after we backed out of the deal. They did not push towards the goal immediately.
Recall, they moved ahead in meeting our conditions as far as giving up the little near weapons grade refined Uranium they possessed. They were left with low grade, no where near weapons grade Uranium. It would have taken them years to replace the near weapons grade that they gave up to get the deal signed. They could have had a bomb in a few months at the time. Once they gave up their near weapons grade material, it would take them a few years to replenish that stock. They could easily have replaced it by now if they had wanted to.

I have no idea where they are now -- I think US intel has a better idea than you do I suspect. I think it pays to listen to what they have to say. Obviously the deal has moved.

Well considering I have no clue when they'll have a bomb......but come on, they were off by nearly a decade now.

I feel like "give or take five years" is a fair intelligence window, don't you think? That's not asking a whole lot. And the intel doesn't just include the "can they do it"....in includes the "do they WANT to do it part".

It was an intel miss. And I'm thrilled they don't have one, because who the F knows what Israel would do if they were deemed close to having one.

Come on, did you read the explanations?
You are usually way, way more on point.

You missed the mark on this one.

I did read it. JHU is making claims that we're plainly unsure of. "They are closer now than then".

Really? How do we know that?

Do you guys want me to pull up the reports from 2015? I have no idea why you guys are digging your heels in, but we were told that they were months away....and that was 9 years ago. You guys are acting like i'm nuts for saying the intel was way off.

I'm in full understanding that JHU is a physicist, and understands the technical stuff far better than most people on Earth. All I'm questioning is the intel that is telling us what they think is going on over there.

Sorry, but it's not crazy to question its veracity after missing the mark so badly before. Do we know for certainty that they "gave up their weapons grade material"? No. We don't. That's all I'm saying......don't know why this is even a question.

Come on, next you will be telling us you trust the Ayatollah more than our IC.
At least you won’t be standing next to the Ayatollah.

Certainty is never achieved in intelligence. But, yes, high degrees of confidence is the goal.

Absent contrary proof, I think our ICs assessment of the time required from their status 10 years ago was likely accurate or close. I also think their assessment of Iranian actions post deal were likely right too…they backed off…and have moved closer since then. That is Not a prediction that they have decided to complete a weapon or weapons. Just a signal…

Your logic depends on an untrue assertion that our IC assessment meant the Iranians had decided to complete a weapon and thus must have been wrong because they haven’t done so. As if they were incapable in the first place.

I can lay about 100 different combinations as to what's actually happening vs. what we think is happening.

Do you want me to walk you through it, and bore you to death?

What makes you think that our Iran intel is 99% accurate vs. 50%? Or that our intel in 2024 is better (or worse) than it was in 2015. Hope? The logic fail is making assumptions when history has told us that military intel in hostile dictatorships is shoddy at best.

Do you remember what we were just told about how awesome the Russian army was? And some whiskey producer a half a world a way made the call that the military wonks couldn't BEFORE it went down "Hey, you need MONEY to maintain nukes weapons and troops needed for conquest.....not only is Russian GDP less than Italy's, Putin and his buds are kleptocrats, and likely steal much of the money that's supposed to go to the military.

I was right, the US military intel wonks were wrong, and they started drafting old freaking men just months into their entirely stalled conquest of a 34th rate military power. How's that war going for Putin. And do you remember me asking: "how the F does Putin think he's going to HOLD the land he has conquered for years?"

Yet you want me to take our assessment of Iran's capabilities and desires at face value? Yeah, sorry. Not doing it.

No, just admit that your initial statement and specifically its logic were wrong.

[a fan]

Iran is signaling they are willing to negotiate with the US over their nuclear program. Some of the leaders who worked the 2015 deal blown up by Orange Duce, have been restored to power.

As I stated at the time, this tells you how bad US Intel is when it comes to Iran. We were told Iran was MONTHS from getting the bomb.

That was almost ten freaking years ago. Whoops. Hard to make diplomatic choices when we're that out of whack with intel. They didn't miss the target, or the tree...they missed the whole forest.

... they are closer now than then. They have not rushed the program, if they wanted they could have the bomb by now if they wanted to dedicate the resources. They stood still for a couple years after we backed out of the deal. They did not push towards the goal immediately.
Recall, they moved ahead in meeting our conditions as far as giving up the little near weapons grade refined Uranium they possessed. They were left with low grade, no where near weapons grade Uranium. It would have taken them years to replace the near weapons grade that they gave up to get the deal signed. They could have had a bomb in a few months at the time. Once they gave up their near weapons grade material, it would take them a few years to replenish that stock. They could easily have replaced it by now if they had wanted to.

I have no idea where they are now -- I think US intel has a better idea than you do I suspect. I think it pays to listen to what they have to say. Obviously the deal has moved.

Well considering I have no clue when they'll have a bomb......but come on, they were off by nearly a decade now.

I feel like "give or take five years" is a fair intelligence window, don't you think? That's not asking a whole lot. And the intel doesn't just include the "can they do it"....in includes the "do they WANT to do it part".

It was an intel miss. And I'm thrilled they don't have one, because who the F knows what Israel would do if they were deemed close to having one.

Come on, did you read the explanations?
You are usually way, way more on point.

You missed the mark on this one.

I did read it. JHU is making claims that we're plainly unsure of. "They are closer now than then".

Really? How do we know that?

Do you guys want me to pull up the reports from 2015? I have no idea why you guys are digging your heels in, but we were told that they were months away....and that was 9 years ago. You guys are acting like i'm nuts for saying the intel was way off.

I'm in full understanding that JHU is a physicist, and understands the technical stuff far better than most people on Earth. All I'm questioning is the intel that is telling us what they think is going on over there.

Sorry, but it's not crazy to question its veracity after missing the mark so badly before. Do we know for certainty that they "gave up their weapons grade material"? No. We don't. That's all I'm saying......don't know why this is even a question.

Come on, next you will be telling us you trust the Ayatollah more than our IC.
At least you won’t be standing next to the Ayatollah.

Certainty is never achieved in intelligence. But, yes, high degrees of confidence is the goal.

Absent contrary proof, I think our ICs assessment of the time required from their status 10 years ago was likely accurate or close. I also think their assessment of Iranian actions post deal were likely right too…they backed off…and have moved closer since then. That is Not a prediction that they have decided to complete a weapon or weapons. Just a signal…

Your logic depends on an untrue assertion that our IC assessment meant the Iranians had decided to complete a weapon and thus must have been wrong because they haven’t done so. As if they were incapable in the first place.

I can lay about 100 different combinations as to what's actually happening vs. what we think is happening.

Do you want me to walk you through it, and bore you to death?

What makes you think that our Iran intel is 99% accurate vs. 50%? Or that our intel in 2024 is better (or worse) than it was in 2015. Hope? The logic fail is making assumptions when history has told us that military intel in hostile dictatorships is shoddy at best.

Do you remember what we were just told about how awesome the Russian army was? And some whiskey producer a half a world a way made the call that the military wonks couldn't BEFORE it went down "Hey, you need MONEY to maintain nukes weapons and troops needed for conquest.....not only is Russian GDP less than Italy's, Putin and his buds are kleptocrats, and likely steal much of the money that's supposed to go to the military.

I was right, the US military intel wonks were wrong, and they started drafting old freaking men just months into their entirely stalled conquest of a 34th rate military power. How's that war going for Putin. And do you remember me asking: "how the F does Putin think he's going to HOLD the land he has conquered for years?"

Yet you want me to take our assessment of Iran's capabilities and desires at face value? Yeah, sorry. Not doing it.

No, just admit that your initial statement and specifically its logic were wrong.

That they told us that they were months from having the bomb back in 2015, and it's 2024 and they still don't have one?

And now US Intel is once again telling "oh, they almost have one now".....and I'm questioning the accuracy of the intel?

And you're on here trying to tell me that in questioning the accuracy of our Iranian Intel....my logic is bad? Seriously?

How about this: prove that 2015 US intel was accurate, and our 2024 US intel is currently accurate. Start there. Good luck.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12106

[MDlaxfan76]

Iran is signaling they are willing to negotiate with the US over their nuclear program. Some of the leaders who worked the 2015 deal blown up by Orange Duce, have been restored to power.

As I stated at the time, this tells you how bad US Intel is when it comes to Iran. We were told Iran was MONTHS from getting the bomb.

That was almost ten freaking years ago. Whoops. Hard to make diplomatic choices when we're that out of whack with intel. They didn't miss the target, or the tree...they missed the whole forest.

... they are closer now than then. They have not rushed the program, if they wanted they could have the bomb by now if they wanted to dedicate the resources. They stood still for a couple years after we backed out of the deal. They did not push towards the goal immediately.
Recall, they moved ahead in meeting our conditions as far as giving up the little near weapons grade refined Uranium they possessed. They were left with low grade, no where near weapons grade Uranium. It would have taken them years to replace the near weapons grade that they gave up to get the deal signed. They could have had a bomb in a few months at the time. Once they gave up their near weapons grade material, it would take them a few years to replenish that stock. They could easily have replaced it by now if they had wanted to.

I have no idea where they are now -- I think US intel has a better idea than you do I suspect. I think it pays to listen to what they have to say. Obviously the deal has moved.

Well considering I have no clue when they'll have a bomb......but come on, they were off by nearly a decade now.

I feel like "give or take five years" is a fair intelligence window, don't you think? That's not asking a whole lot. And the intel doesn't just include the "can they do it"....in includes the "do they WANT to do it part".

It was an intel miss. And I'm thrilled they don't have one, because who the F knows what Israel would do if they were deemed close to having one.

Come on, did you read the explanations?
You are usually way, way more on point.

You missed the mark on this one.

I did read it. JHU is making claims that we're plainly unsure of. "They are closer now than then".

Really? How do we know that?

Do you guys want me to pull up the reports from 2015? I have no idea why you guys are digging your heels in, but we were told that they were months away....and that was 9 years ago. You guys are acting like i'm nuts for saying the intel was way off.

I'm in full understanding that JHU is a physicist, and understands the technical stuff far better than most people on Earth. All I'm questioning is the intel that is telling us what they think is going on over there.

Sorry, but it's not crazy to question its veracity after missing the mark so badly before. Do we know for certainty that they "gave up their weapons grade material"? No. We don't. That's all I'm saying......don't know why this is even a question.

Come on, next you will be telling us you trust the Ayatollah more than our IC.
At least you won’t be standing next to the Ayatollah.

Certainty is never achieved in intelligence. But, yes, high degrees of confidence is the goal.

Absent contrary proof, I think our ICs assessment of the time required from their status 10 years ago was likely accurate or close. I also think their assessment of Iranian actions post deal were likely right too…they backed off…and have moved closer since then. That is Not a prediction that they have decided to complete a weapon or weapons. Just a signal…

Your logic depends on an untrue assertion that our IC assessment meant the Iranians had decided to complete a weapon and thus must have been wrong because they haven’t done so. As if they were incapable in the first place.

I can lay about 100 different combinations as to what's actually happening vs. what we think is happening.

Do you want me to walk you through it, and bore you to death?

What makes you think that our Iran intel is 99% accurate vs. 50%? Or that our intel in 2024 is better (or worse) than it was in 2015. Hope? The logic fail is making assumptions when history has told us that military intel in hostile dictatorships is shoddy at best.

Do you remember what we were just told about how awesome the Russian army was? And some whiskey producer a half a world a way made the call that the military wonks couldn't BEFORE it went down "Hey, you need MONEY to maintain nukes weapons and troops needed for conquest.....not only is Russian GDP less than Italy's, Putin and his buds are kleptocrats, and likely steal much of the money that's supposed to go to the military.

I was right, the US military intel wonks were wrong, and they started drafting old freaking men just months into their entirely stalled conquest of a 34th rate military power. How's that war going for Putin. And do you remember me asking: "how the F does Putin think he's going to HOLD the land he has conquered for years?"

Yet you want me to take our assessment of Iran's capabilities and desires at face value? Yeah, sorry. Not doing it.

No, just admit that your initial statement and specifically its logic were wrong.

That they told us that they were months from having the bomb back in 2015, and it's 2024 and they still don't have one?

And now US Intel is once again telling "oh, they almost have one now".....and I'm questioning the accuracy of the intel?

And you're on here trying to tell me that in questioning the accuracy of our Iranian Intel....my logic is bad? Seriously?

How about this: prove that 2015 US intel was accurate, and our 2024 US intel is currently accurate. Start there. Good luck.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12106

Sheesh, they have never said that ‘Iran Will produce a bomb in X months’, they have only said how close, how capable, they are IF they decide to do so.

I just don’t understand why you are being dense about that.

There’s lots to critique about IC but your logic is just flat wrong. You’re usually much more clear eyed as well as willing to admit an error.

Your link is quite clear.

[a fan]

Sheesh, they have never said that ‘Iran Will produce a bomb in X months’, they have only said how close, how capable, they are IF they decide to do so.

I just don’t understand why you are being dense about that.

There’s lots to critique about IC but your logic is just flat wrong. You’re usually much more clear eyed as well as willing to admit an error.

It's NOT an error, my friend: this intel put a gun to Obama's head and the rest of the countries who signed the JCPOA almost a decade ago.

So now that we did that, and Trump pulled out of it now four years ago, the gun is back from US intel.

And you're telling me.... politely..... that I'm stupid if I question the 2015 and 2024 Intel, and call both suspect.

i don't believe the intel was or is accurate, making it hard to know what to do next.

You DO think the 2015 and 2024 intel is accurate for reasons that I can assure you that you can't explain with logic.

[MDlaxfan76]

Sheesh, they have never said that ‘Iran Will produce a bomb in X months’, they have only said how close, how capable, they are IF they decide to do so.

I just don’t understand why you are being dense about that.

There’s lots to critique about IC but your logic is just flat wrong. You’re usually much more clear eyed as well as willing to admit an error.

It's NOT an error, my friend: this intel put a gun to Obama's head and the rest of the countries who signed the JCPOA almost a decade ago.

So now that we did that, and Trump pulled out of it now four years ago, the gun is back from US intel.

And you're telling me.... politely..... that I'm stupid if I question the 2015 and 2024 Intel, and call both suspect.

i don't believe the intel was or is accurate, making it hard to know what to do next.

You DO think the 2015 and 2024 intel is accurate for reasons that I can assure you that you can't explain with logic.

No, I’m not expert enough or informed enough to know with high confidence that they are precisely accurate. I also have no basis to assume that they are flat wrong much less that they are just making it up out of whole cloth.

I also wouldn’t have any basis to assume you don’t have accurate insights on spirits…

I am not objecting to generalized skepticism, I’m just objecting to the specious logic you asserted, that because they didn’t produce a bomb that meant the time to breakout assessment proved false. And that the current assessment is also wrong. Nope, really bad logic.

If you want to argue that the more relevant question is whether Iran actually intends to build a weapon for sure, fine.

Or want to argue about what our policy choices should be, including whatever healthy dose of skepticism you wish to apply, go for it.

Just correct that original faulty logic.

[a fan]

Sheesh, they have never said that ‘Iran Will produce a bomb in X months’, they have only said how close, how capable, they are IF they decide to do so.

I just don’t understand why you are being dense about that.

There’s lots to critique about IC but your logic is just flat wrong. You’re usually much more clear eyed as well as willing to admit an error.

It's NOT an error, my friend: this intel put a gun to Obama's head and the rest of the countries who signed the JCPOA almost a decade ago.

So now that we did that, and Trump pulled out of it now four years ago, the gun is back from US intel.

And you're telling me.... politely..... that I'm stupid if I question the 2015 and 2024 Intel, and call both suspect.

i don't believe the intel was or is accurate, making it hard to know what to do next.

You DO think the 2015 and 2024 intel is accurate for reasons that I can assure you that you can't explain with logic.

No, I’m not expert enough or informed enough to know with high confidence that they are precisely accurate. I also have no basis to assume that they are flat wrong much less that they are just making it up out of whole cloth.

I also wouldn’t have any basis to assume you don’t have accurate insights on spirits…

I am not objecting to generalized skepticism, I’m just objecting to the specious logic you asserted, that because they didn’t produce a bomb that meant the time to breakout assessment proved false. And that the current assessment is also wrong. Nope, really bad logic.

MDlax. You're a smart man: there is zero chance you don't understand that your logic is based on a foundation of sand.

How do you know that the 2015 Intel was good? You don't. How do you know that the 2024 intel is good? You don't.

My logic is based on: it's been ten year since the original US intel assessment. That's a long time to not build a bomb. It's REASONABLE to assume that either their will or their ability to build one wasn't there back in 2015 when the initial Intel assessment was made. Sorry, but this is logically sound.

It's POSSIBLE that the JCPOA worked, yes. Very possible. But then you have to ask: what changed that they're working on a bomb again if the JCPOA worked?