MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 10:41 am
a fan wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 10:10 am
MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 8:11 am
a fan wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 1:42 am
jhu72 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 12:41 am
a fan wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2024 2:38 pm
As I stated at the time, this tells you how bad US Intel is when it comes to Iran. We were told Iran was MONTHS from getting the bomb.
That was almost ten freaking years ago. Whoops. Hard to make diplomatic choices when we're that out of whack with intel. They didn't miss the target, or the tree...they missed the whole forest.
... they are closer now than then. They have not rushed the program, if they wanted they could have the bomb by now if they wanted to dedicate the resources. They stood still for a couple years after we backed out of the deal. They did not push towards the goal immediately.
Recall, they moved ahead in meeting our conditions as far as giving up the little near weapons grade refined Uranium they possessed. They were left with low grade, no where near weapons grade Uranium. It would have taken them years to replace the near weapons grade that they gave up to get the deal signed. They could have had a bomb in a few months at the time. Once they gave up their near weapons grade material, it would take them a few years to replenish that stock. They could easily have replaced it by now if they had wanted to.
I have no idea where they are now -- I think US intel has a better idea than you do I suspect. I think it pays to listen to what they have to say. Obviously the deal has moved.
Well considering I have no clue when they'll have a bomb......but come on, they were off by nearly a decade now.
I feel like "give or take five years" is a fair intelligence window, don't you think? That's not asking a whole lot. And the intel doesn't just include the "can they do it"....in includes the "do they WANT to do it part".
It was an intel miss. And I'm thrilled they don't have one, because who the F knows what Israel would do if they were deemed close to having one.
Come on, did you read the explanations?
You are usually way, way more on point.
You missed the mark on this one.
I did read it. JHU is making claims that we're plainly unsure of.
"They are closer now than then".
Really? How do we know that?
Do you guys want me to pull up the reports from 2015? I have no idea why you guys are digging your heels in, but we were told that they were months away....and that was 9 years ago. You guys are acting like i'm nuts for saying the intel was way off.
I'm in full understanding that JHU is a physicist, and understands the technical stuff far better than most people on Earth. All I'm questioning is the intel that is telling us what they think is going on over there.
Sorry, but it's not crazy to question its veracity after missing the mark so badly before. Do we know for certainty that they "gave up their weapons grade material"? No. We don't. That's all I'm saying......don't know why this is even a question.
Come on, next you will be telling us you trust the Ayatollah more than our IC.
At least you won’t be standing next to the Ayatollah.
Certainty is never achieved in intelligence. But, yes, high degrees of confidence is the goal.
Absent contrary proof, I think our ICs assessment of the time required from their status 10 years ago was likely accurate or close. I also think their assessment of Iranian actions post deal were likely right too…they backed off…and have moved closer since then. That is Not a prediction that they have decided to complete a weapon or weapons. Just a signal…
Your logic depends on an untrue assertion that our IC assessment meant the Iranians had decided to complete a weapon and thus must have been wrong because they haven’t done so. As if they were incapable in the first place.
I can lay about 100 different combinations as to what's actually happening vs. what we think is happening.
Do you want me to walk you through it, and bore you to death?
What makes you think that our Iran intel is 99% accurate vs. 50%? Or that our intel in 2024 is better (or worse) than it was in 2015. Hope? The logic fail is making assumptions when history has told us that military intel in hostile dictatorships is shoddy at best.
Do you remember what we were just told about how awesome the Russian army was? And some whiskey producer a half a world a way made the call that the military wonks couldn't BEFORE it went down "Hey, you need MONEY to maintain nukes weapons and troops needed for conquest.....not only is Russian GDP less than Italy's, Putin and his buds are kleptocrats, and likely steal much of the money that's supposed to go to the military.
I was right, the US military intel wonks were wrong, and they started drafting old freaking men just months into their entirely stalled conquest of a 34th rate military power. How's that war going for Putin. And do you remember me asking: "how the F does Putin think he's going to HOLD the land he has conquered for years?"
Yet you want me to take our assessment of Iran's capabilities and desires at face value? Yeah, sorry. Not doing it.