2024

[njbill]

... the poles are still wrong. They underestimate the democratic bounce in red / purple states by women (of all stripes). This is not going to be as close as people are still generally predicting. The only difference between Biden a month ago and Harris now, is the democratic leaning young folks and the democratic leaning uncommitted (some of them - not all) have now come out for Harris. These are people who believe it is possible to do two things at once. They wanted Trump gone but also what to see movement on other issues. All Biden was talking about was Trump.

Harris has an awesome ground game. Better than Biden's in 2020.

Agree with much of this, but the other side of the coin is that Harris is going to lose a lot of older, white voters, like me. As I’ve said, I’m not going to vote for her, and I have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee for decades. I think there are a lot of people like me, a moderate Democrat. A lot of older moderate Republicans are also not going to vote for her for good, bad, or indifferent reasons, such as she’s too liberal, she’s from California, she’s black, she’s a woman, they don’t like the cackle of her laugh, etc.

While the lawn sign test isn’t particularly meaningful, it is notable to me that in blue New Jersey I see a lot more Trump signs than I did in 2016 and 2020. Now, New Jersey is not going to go red, but it is significant to me that there are so many Trump signs around.

Yes, Kamala is going to get more young voters, but in general, young voters don’t vote in a very high proportion. She may run up the numbers in blue states, but that doesn’t help her win the election. She will certainly get a lot of black women voters. Black men will be mixed. Some like her, some don’t. I don’t think she’ll get more white women voters than Joe though. People were disillusioned with Joe, but at the end of the day, they were going to vote for him.

I hope I am wrong and that Kamala wins. But I think an awful lot of Dems have stars in their eyes from the strong rollout of the Harris campaign. I’m not convinced that all of the glitz is going to translate into enough votes to win the election in November, however.

[Kismet]

... the poles are still wrong. They underestimate the democratic bounce in red / purple states by women (of all stripes). This is not going to be as close as people are still generally predicting. The only difference between Biden a month ago and Harris now, is the democratic leaning young folks and the democratic leaning uncommitted (some of them - not all) have now come out for Harris. These are people who believe it is possible to do two things at once. They wanted Trump gone but also what to see movement on other issues. All Biden was talking about was Trump.

Harris has an awesome ground game. Better than Biden's in 2020.

Agree with much of this, but the other side of the coin is that Harris is going to lose a lot of older, white voters, like me. As I’ve said, I’m not going to vote for her, and I have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee for decades. I think there are a lot of people like me, a moderate Democrat. A lot of older moderate Republicans are also not going to vote for her for good, bad, or indifferent reasons, such as she’s too liberal, she’s from California, she’s black, she’s a woman, they don’t like the cackle of her laugh, etc.

While the lawn sign test isn’t particularly meaningful, it is notable to me that in blue New Jersey I see a lot more Trump signs than I did in 2016 and 2020. Now, New Jersey is not going to go red, but it is significant to me that there are so many Trump signs around.

Yes, Kamala is going to get more young voters, but in general, young voters don’t vote in a very high proportion. She may run up the numbers in blue states, but that doesn’t help her win the election. She will certainly get a lot of black women voters. Black men will be mixed. Some like her, some don’t. I don’t think she’ll get more white women voters than Joe though. People were disillusioned with Joe, but at the end of the day, they were going to vote for him.

I hope I am wrong and that Kamala wins. But I think an awful lot of Dems have stars in their eyes from the strong rollout of the Harris campaign. I’m not convinced that all of the glitz is going to translate into enough votes to win the election in November, however.

I don't get it - you hope she wins but you aren't going to vote for her??? What's the logic in that? Could you live with yourself if Fatso wins and you don't vote?

Of course, you live in NJ which is a likely safe blue state so it might not matter.

[Seacoaster(1)]

“I hope I am wrong and that Kamala wins.”

Seems like you ought to vote for her.

[njbill]

To both:

As I previously explained, I don’t like the fact that the Democratic bigwigs stabbed Joe in the back and forced him to abdicate. Pelosi and Obama were the lead players in this. I voted for Joe in the primary. He’s my candidate. I’m going to write him in in November. I think he could’ve rallied and won the election. I understand I am in the minority in holding that view.

[njbill]

... the poles are still wrong. They underestimate the democratic bounce in red / purple states by women (of all stripes). This is not going to be as close as people are still generally predicting. The only difference between Biden a month ago and Harris now, is the democratic leaning young folks and the democratic leaning uncommitted (some of them - not all) have now come out for Harris. These are people who believe it is possible to do two things at once. They wanted Trump gone but also what to see movement on other issues. All Biden was talking about was Trump.

Harris has an awesome ground game. Better than Biden's in 2020.

Agree with much of this, but the other side of the coin is that Harris is going to lose a lot of older, white voters, like me. As I’ve said, I’m not going to vote for her, and I have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee for decades. I think there are a lot of people like me, a moderate Democrat. A lot of older moderate Republicans are also not going to vote for her for good, bad, or indifferent reasons, such as she’s too liberal, she’s from California, she’s black, she’s a woman, they don’t like the cackle of her laugh, etc.

While the lawn sign test isn’t particularly meaningful, it is notable to me that in blue New Jersey I see a lot more Trump signs than I did in 2016 and 2020. Now, New Jersey is not going to go red, but it is significant to me that there are so many Trump signs around.

Yes, Kamala is going to get more young voters, but in general, young voters don’t vote in a very high proportion. She may run up the numbers in blue states, but that doesn’t help her win the election. She will certainly get a lot of black women voters. Black men will be mixed. Some like her, some don’t. I don’t think she’ll get more white women voters than Joe though. People were disillusioned with Joe, but at the end of the day, they were going to vote for him.

I hope I am wrong and that Kamala wins. But I think an awful lot of Dems have stars in their eyes from the strong rollout of the Harris campaign. I’m not convinced that all of the glitz is going to translate into enough votes to win the election in November, however.

I don't get it - you hope she wins but you aren't going to vote for her??? What's the logic in that? Could you live with yourself if Fatso wins and you don't vote?

Of course, you live in NJ which is a likely safe blue state so it might not matter.

You edited your post while I was responding.

I am going to vote. As you know, I live in New Jersey, so my vote is meaningless. It is a protest vote. If I lived in Pennsylvania, I would vote for Harris.

[jhu72]

... the poles are still wrong. They underestimate the democratic bounce in red / purple states by women (of all stripes). This is not going to be as close as people are still generally predicting. The only difference between Biden a month ago and Harris now, is the democratic leaning young folks and the democratic leaning uncommitted (some of them - not all) have now come out for Harris. These are people who believe it is possible to do two things at once. They wanted Trump gone but also what to see movement on other issues. All Biden was talking about was Trump.

Harris has an awesome ground game. Better than Biden's in 2020.

Agree with much of this, but the other side of the coin is that Harris is going to lose a lot of older, white voters, like me. As I’ve said, I’m not going to vote for her, and I have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee for decades. I think there are a lot of people like me, a moderate Democrat. A lot of older moderate Republicans are also not going to vote for her for good, bad, or indifferent reasons, such as she’s too liberal, she’s from California, she’s black, she’s a woman, they don’t like the cackle of her laugh, etc.

While the lawn sign test isn’t particularly meaningful, it is notable to me that in blue New Jersey I see a lot more Trump signs than I did in 2016 and 2020. Now, New Jersey is not going to go red, but it is significant to me that there are so many Trump signs around.

Yes, Kamala is going to get more young voters, but in general, young voters don’t vote in a very high proportion. She may run up the numbers in blue states, but that doesn’t help her win the election. She will certainly get a lot of black women voters. Black men will be mixed. Some like her, some don’t. I don’t think she’ll get more white women voters than Joe though. People were disillusioned with Joe, but at the end of the day, they were going to vote for him.

I hope I am wrong and that Kamala wins. But I think an awful lot of Dems have stars in their eyes from the strong rollout of the Harris campaign. I’m not convinced that all of the glitz is going to translate into enough votes to win the election in November, however.

... I agree with your statement that Biden was going to get more "unenthusiastic votes" than were showing up in the poles at the time. Harris largely brought those out already. I think the black male vote is going to be only slightly worse than Bidens, may be as good. Seems to be evidence now that they are returning. Biden was afraid she would lose the older white men he brought back into the fold. This is a real concern. I don't know whether Biden was convinced that would not happen, or be as bad has he had originally believed. I don't see why it has to be true. The poles do have her up in Pennsylvania commensurate with her gains in the other rust belt states. We will see.

[CU88a]

Harris is going to ride a wave of female voters:

"The Harris campaign said it saw "unprecedented grassroots donations" in the week of the DNC. According to the campaign, a third of last week's donations came from first-time contributors — a majority of whom were women and a fifth of whom were young voters. Teachers and nurses continue to be among the most common donor professions, the campaign’s chair, Jen O’Malley Dillon, said in a memo."

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/25/nx-s1-50 ... aising-dnc


AND

She needs Joe to come out of hiding and fight for his voters in key states like PA, his backyard. Nancy P and Kamala H need him just as much as ever.

HE MUST RESURFACE TO RECOVER THOSE "LOST" VOTERS (aka njbill).

[njbill]

If Joe lets me drive his Corvette, I’ll vote for Kamala.

[ggait]

To both:

As I previously explained, I don’t like the fact that the Democratic bigwigs stabbed Joe in the back and forced him to abdicate. Pelosi and Obama were the lead players in this. I voted for Joe in the primary. He’s my candidate. I’m going to write him in in November. I think he could’ve rallied and won the election. I understand I am in the minority in holding that view.

Seems like an odd thing to get twisted up about.

The reason Joe got the nomination in 2020 is because the party bigwigs (i.e. Jim Clyburn) put their finger on the scale for Joe in South Carolina. Don't forget that Biden finished fifth in the 2020 NH primary.

The party insiders always decide who the nominee is. See the well known book linked below. The party bigwigs picked Biden to beat Trump in 2020. Then the party bigwigs didn't pick Biden to beat Trump in 2024.

Goose, gander. Live/die by the sword. Nothing new as far as I can tell.

https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo ... 21600.html

Throughout the contest for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, politicians and voters alike worried that the outcome might depend on the preferences of unelected superdelegates. This concern threw into relief the prevailing notion that—such unusually competitive cases notwithstanding—people, rather than parties, should and do control presidential nominations. But for the past several decades, The Party Decides shows, unelected insiders in both major parties have effectively selected candidates long before citizens reached the ballot box.

[ggait]

If Joe lets me drive his Corvette, I’ll vote for Kamala.

Do you think Joe's kids still let Joe control the keys to the 'Vette?

[Seacoaster(1)]

Least surprising story ever:

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/27/nx-s1-50 ... n-cemetery

These people really are disgusting.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Least surprising story ever:

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/27/nx-s1-50 ... n-cemetery

These people really are disgusting.

He wasn’t allowed to use the props? No worries, Old Salt, C&S and YA will come to his defense. Kahmawler would have been worse.

[PizzaSnake]

... the poles are still wrong. They underestimate the democratic bounce in red / purple states by women (of all stripes). This is not going to be as close as people are still generally predicting. The only difference between Biden a month ago and Harris now, is the democratic leaning young folks and the democratic leaning uncommitted (some of them - not all) have now come out for Harris. These are people who believe it is possible to do two things at once. They wanted Trump gone but also what to see movement on other issues. All Biden was talking about was Trump.

Harris has an awesome ground game. Better than Biden's in 2020.

Agree with much of this, but the other side of the coin is that Harris is going to lose a lot of older, white voters, like me. As I’ve said, I’m not going to vote for her, and I have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee for decades. I think there are a lot of people like me, a moderate Democrat. A lot of older moderate Republicans are also not going to vote for her for good, bad, or indifferent reasons, such as she’s too liberal, she’s from California, she’s black, she’s a woman, they don’t like the cackle of her laugh, etc.

While the lawn sign test isn’t particularly meaningful, it is notable to me that in blue New Jersey I see a lot more Trump signs than I did in 2016 and 2020. Now, New Jersey is not going to go red, but it is significant to me that there are so many Trump signs around.

Yes, Kamala is going to get more young voters, but in general, young voters don’t vote in a very high proportion. She may run up the numbers in blue states, but that doesn’t help her win the election. She will certainly get a lot of black women voters. Black men will be mixed. Some like her, some don’t. I don’t think she’ll get more white women voters than Joe though. People were disillusioned with Joe, but at the end of the day, they were going to vote for him.

I hope I am wrong and that Kamala wins. But I think an awful lot of Dems have stars in their eyes from the strong rollout of the Harris campaign. I’m not convinced that all of the glitz is going to translate into enough votes to win the election in November, however.

“I’m not going to vote for her”

Going to vote for the fascist? Not going to vote?

If you decide not to choose, you’ve still made a choice.

[PizzaSnake]

Least surprising story ever:

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/27/nx-s1-50 ... n-cemetery

These people really are disgusting.

Where was the Old Guard? Of course, since Drumpf is actually the President, maybe they would have been conflicted.

Everyday a new grotesque absurdity…

[njbill]

... the poles are still wrong. They underestimate the democratic bounce in red / purple states by women (of all stripes). This is not going to be as close as people are still generally predicting. The only difference between Biden a month ago and Harris now, is the democratic leaning young folks and the democratic leaning uncommitted (some of them - not all) have now come out for Harris. These are people who believe it is possible to do two things at once. They wanted Trump gone but also what to see movement on other issues. All Biden was talking about was Trump.

Harris has an awesome ground game. Better than Biden's in 2020.

Agree with much of this, but the other side of the coin is that Harris is going to lose a lot of older, white voters, like me. As I’ve said, I’m not going to vote for her, and I have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee for decades. I think there are a lot of people like me, a moderate Democrat. A lot of older moderate Republicans are also not going to vote for her for good, bad, or indifferent reasons, such as she’s too liberal, she’s from California, she’s black, she’s a woman, they don’t like the cackle of her laugh, etc.

While the lawn sign test isn’t particularly meaningful, it is notable to me that in blue New Jersey I see a lot more Trump signs than I did in 2016 and 2020. Now, New Jersey is not going to go red, but it is significant to me that there are so many Trump signs around.

Yes, Kamala is going to get more young voters, but in general, young voters don’t vote in a very high proportion. She may run up the numbers in blue states, but that doesn’t help her win the election. She will certainly get a lot of black women voters. Black men will be mixed. Some like her, some don’t. I don’t think she’ll get more white women voters than Joe though. People were disillusioned with Joe, but at the end of the day, they were going to vote for him.

I hope I am wrong and that Kamala wins. But I think an awful lot of Dems have stars in their eyes from the strong rollout of the Harris campaign. I’m not convinced that all of the glitz is going to translate into enough votes to win the election in November, however.

“I’m not going to vote for her”

Going to vote for the fascist? Not going to vote?

If you decide not to choose, you’ve still made a choice.

Thought I answered this a few times. I’m going to vote. Will write in Biden.

[CU88a]

If Joe lets me drive his Corvette, I’ll vote for Kamala.

[Seacoaster(1)]

Arlington Cemetery administrators have confirmed to NPR that a report has been filed about the attack on cemetery staff. Would sure like to see it.

"Federal law prohibits political campaign or election-related activities within Army National Military Cemeteries, to include photographers, content creators or any other persons attending for purposes, or in direct support of a partisan political candidate’s campaign.”

So it appears that the Trump campaign broke federal law by staging a political event and photo opportunity on some of the nation's most hallowed ground...and then attacked a member of the cemetery staff trying to enforce rules intended to prevent American military dead from becoming props in political advertising.

Good to hear from all our veterans about this crass, dirtying outrage.

[cradleandshoot]

If Joe lets me drive his Corvette, I’ll vote for Kamala.

That would be preferable than going for a joy ride with Joe behind the wheel.

[cradleandshoot]

Arlington Cemetery administrators have confirmed to NPR that a report has been filed about the attack on cemetery staff. Would sure like to see it.

"Federal law prohibits political campaign or election-related activities within Army National Military Cemeteries, to include photographers, content creators or any other persons attending for purposes, or in direct support of a partisan political candidate’s campaign.”

So it appears that the Trump campaign broke federal law by staging a political event and photo opportunity on some of the nation's most hallowed ground...and then attacked a member of the cemetery staff trying to enforce rules intended to prevent American military dead from becoming props in political advertising.

Good to hear from all our veterans about this crass, dirtying outrage.

Looks like another trial for trump. Has Merrick Garland been brought up to speed? FTR I wasn't aware that the photo op at Arlington violated federal law. That being said the optics of trump doing it can't be erased. Another example of risk vs reward. I'm guessing those photos will show up in a campaign ad.

[njbill]

If Joe lets me drive his Corvette, I’ll vote for Kamala.

That would be preferable than going for a joy ride with Joe behind the wheel.

Thank you for your conference in my driving skills. I think.