Agree with much of this, but the other side of the coin is that Harris is going to lose a lot of older, white voters, like me. As I’ve said, I’m not going to vote for her, and I have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee for decades. I think there are a lot of people like me, a moderate Democrat. A lot of older moderate Republicans are also not going to vote for her for good, bad, or indifferent reasons, such as she’s too liberal, she’s from California, she’s black, she’s a woman, they don’t like the cackle of her laugh, etc.jhu72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2024 4:42 pm ... the poles are still wrong. They underestimate the democratic bounce in red / purple states by women (of all stripes). This is not going to be as close as people are still generally predicting. The only difference between Biden a month ago and Harris now, is the democratic leaning young folks and the democratic leaning uncommitted (some of them - not all) have now come out for Harris. These are people who believe it is possible to do two things at once. They wanted Trump gone but also what to see movement on other issues. All Biden was talking about was Trump.
Harris has an awesome ground game. Better than Biden's in 2020.
While the lawn sign test isn’t particularly meaningful, it is notable to me that in blue New Jersey I see a lot more Trump signs than I did in 2016 and 2020. Now, New Jersey is not going to go red, but it is significant to me that there are so many Trump signs around.
Yes, Kamala is going to get more young voters, but in general, young voters don’t vote in a very high proportion. She may run up the numbers in blue states, but that doesn’t help her win the election. She will certainly get a lot of black women voters. Black men will be mixed. Some like her, some don’t. I don’t think she’ll get more white women voters than Joe though. People were disillusioned with Joe, but at the end of the day, they were going to vote for him.
I hope I am wrong and that Kamala wins. But I think an awful lot of Dems have stars in their eyes from the strong rollout of the Harris campaign. I’m not convinced that all of the glitz is going to translate into enough votes to win the election in November, however.