Because I thought Joe was at a low with a combination of the debate, the assassination, and the Republican convention. Thought Joe would get a bump, as almost all candidates do, when he had his convention. Notwithstanding that the media and many of us who follow the news closely are paying rabid attention to the race, I think the masses won’t really focus in until after Labor Day. When push comes to shove, I think they would vote for Joe. Not because they particularly like him. Of course, many think he is too old and wish the Democrats had nominated someone else. But it is a stark, binary choice between autocracy and democracy. It really is an easy decision which I think enough voters would make at the end of the day. This is particularly true in the three blue wall states which Joe was built for, while Kamala is not.PizzaSnake wrote: ↑Tue Jul 30, 2024 3:25 pmWhy do you believe these to be true? Would these purported changes indicate an actual change in sentiment, or a change in polling methodology?njbill wrote: ↑Tue Jul 30, 2024 1:11 pm Ah, now making excuses for your infallible computers. Back pedaling?
As I have said, the best period for Harris‘s numbers will be between now and early to mid September. After that (and maybe even before), they will slide. Conversely, Joe’s numbers were at a low when he dropped out. His numbers would have gradually risen from the convention through the election. Good chance he would’ve won the blue wall states.
You seem to think polling is done the way it was done in the 1980s, your favorite decade. Suggest you read up on how polling has changed in recent years. You may be shocked to learn that pollsters now take into account your dreaded “other factors.”
As to Harris‘s numbers, I think what we are seeing now is the goosing of the numbers from the excitement the change in horses has occasioned. The TV Talking Heads have done a complete 180° turn. Sure, it is a great thing that the base seems to have been energized. People are volunteering. Donors are giving money. But I think this sugar high will wear off once we get into September. It is sad to say, but many voters will not vote for her because she is black, a woman, too liberal, has an abrasive personality, has a cackling laugh, and on and on. This is especially true in the three blue wall states. As I’ve been saying, I don’t think she can win Pennsylvania, and without Pennsylvania she can’t win the election.
Hope I am wrong.
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