Sure do.ggait wrote: ↑Tue Jul 30, 2024 1:19 amI think Livhtman’s “formula” is so subjective as to not really be much of a system. But it is one more view and data point that you can consider along with other forecasts. He does not focus on polls or actual candidates. He looks at generic fundamentals to gushed the chance of the incumbent party to retain the wh.njbill wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 9:26 pmDon’t tell ggait. Only machines are allowed to make predictions about the presidential election.youthathletics wrote: ↑Mon Jul 29, 2024 9:22 pm Prediction by Lichtman: https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1818042 ... a82I2GssRg
But based on his so-called formula, this dude says that Biden should have been retained. Because he would be stronger than Harris. Biden would have all the plus factors that Harris has. And also one more in addition — being an incumbent.
Not many people believe that. Do you still believe that Bill?
Will be interesting to see what the quants say when their models turn back on. I doubt they will be as optimistic for Harris.
I thought other data points were not permitted. That’s what you told me time and time again.
I guess the fact that he gets it right is irrelevant.
By the way, Fox owes me money for using my “sugar high“ comment. Lol.
I thought machines were supposed to be faster. How come your machines still haven’t been able to come up with new predictions? Are they waiting until November 6?
And, yes, I’m trolling you now.