2024

[njbill]

Prediction by Lichtman: https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1818042 ... a82I2GssRg

Don’t tell ggait. Only machines are allowed to make predictions about the presidential election.

I think Livhtman’s “formula” is so subjective as to not really be much of a system. But it is one more view and data point that you can consider along with other forecasts. He does not focus on polls or actual candidates. He looks at generic fundamentals to gushed the chance of the incumbent party to retain the wh.

But based on his so-called formula, this dude says that Biden should have been retained. Because he would be stronger than Harris. Biden would have all the plus factors that Harris has. And also one more in addition — being an incumbent.

Not many people believe that. Do you still believe that Bill?

Will be interesting to see what the quants say when their models turn back on. I doubt they will be as optimistic for Harris.

Sure do.

I thought other data points were not permitted. That’s what you told me time and time again.

I guess the fact that he gets it right is irrelevant.

By the way, Fox owes me money for using my “sugar high“ comment. Lol.

I thought machines were supposed to be faster. How come your machines still haven’t been able to come up with new predictions? Are they waiting until November 6?

And, yes, I’m trolling you now.

[njbill]

Prediction by Lichtman: https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1818042 ... a82I2GssRg

Don’t tell ggait. Only machines are allowed to make predictions about the presidential election.

I think Livhtman’s “formula” is so subjective as to not really be much of a system.

But based on his so-called formula, this dude says that Biden should have been retained. Because he would be stronger than Harris. Biden would have all the plus factors that Harris has. And also one more in addition — being an incumbent.

Not many people believe that. Do you still believe that Bill?

Will be interesting to see what the quants say when their models turn back on. I doubt they will be as optimistic for Harris.

I saw a reporter on one of the Sunday shows saying that Biden still polls better than Harris in the Rust Belt swing states (PA,MI,WI).
If Harris can't win one of the sun belt swing states (NC, GA, AZ, NV), Biden still might have had a better chance to win the EC.

Yup. Too lazy right now to look up the numbers, but unless Harris can win two of the Sunbelt states, she still must win Pennsylvania. If she were to win North Carolina, I think she could lose one of the other blue wall states. But Pennsylvania is still critical to her chances of winning.

[Typical Lax Dad]

We are soon to find out the truth about people….all these people saying they wish they had someone to vote for other than Joe and Trump. Both too old and are slipping mentally….well Kamala Harris is running for office now. Put up or shut up time. The truth will be revealed. I have long said people vote for
Trump because he’s against the the same people that the folks that vote for him are against. All this we don’t have a decent candidate to vote for is all BS. Our wish has been granted. We have an alternative now.

To make a fair assessment of candidate Harris much more needs to be revealed. I have read some interesting things about her over the last few days. I'm guessing that team trump is doing a deep dive into her past and her record as DA of San Francisco and as AG of California. Her flip flopping on the death penalty is interesting at face value.

Un huh. What I thought.

[ggait]

Agree with Bill that PA is a gotta have.

I think Joe fell soooo far behind in AZ and NV and NC that they are out of reach for Kamala. Even though she’s doing better there.

GA is her best Sun Belt shot. GA could make up for a loss in WI or MI. But not PA.

I disagree, obvi, that Harris will do worse in the Blue Wall than Joe. Let’s see what SkyNet says.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I guess this rivals Black Men For Trump

[cradleandshoot]

We are soon to find out the truth about people….all these people saying they wish they had someone to vote for other than Joe and Trump. Both too old and are slipping mentally….well Kamala Harris is running for office now. Put up or shut up time. The truth will be revealed. I have long said people vote for
Trump because he’s against the the same people that the folks that vote for him are against. All this we don’t have a decent candidate to vote for is all BS. Our wish has been granted. We have an alternative now.

To make a fair assessment of candidate Harris much more needs to be revealed. I have read some interesting things about her over the last few days. I'm guessing that team trump is doing a deep dive into her past and her record as DA of San Francisco and as AG of California. Her flip flopping on the death penalty is interesting at face value.

Un huh. What I thought.

The para mutual windows haven't even opened yet
I'm simply pointing out to you what trump team is going to try and do. Don't shoot the messenger. There are a number of chinks in Kamala Harris armor that will be further hammered upon without mercy. Unless you have a logical explanation why she changed her mind in regards to the death penalty? When a police officer is murdered and public outrage is taken into account it's okay to modify your core beliefs to appease public opinion. Is that the difference between being a DA in San Francisco and being the Attorney General for the State of California?

[ggait]

I thought other data points were not permitted. That’s what you told me time and time again.

I guess the fact that he gets it right is irrelevant.

Lichtman has been correct 7/9 times. He missed both 2000 and 2016 because he ignores the EC. And he was wrong in 2016 about Trump winning the PV. Decent but not outstanding imo.

He is 100% fundamentals. Candidate and polls do not matter at all. The other systems blend fundamentals and polls to varying degrees.

Bottom line on Joe was that the non personal fundamentals were very much in his favor — good economy, incumbent. Which is why Bill can argue he should still be running.

But his polls completely sucked, despite the very favorable fundamentals. Which is why I can argue he was dead man walking and needed to go. 18 months ago would have been nice.

[ggait]

I thought other data points were not permitted. That’s what you told me time and time again.

I guess the fact that he gets it right is irrelevant.

Au contraire.

Lichtman's system is decent. Has been correct 7/9 times. He missed both 2000 and 2016 because he ignores the EC. Which is a huge oversight on his part. And he was wrong in 2016 about Trump winning the PV. So decent but not outstanding imo.

He is 100% fundamentals. Candidate and polls do not matter at all to him. It is one way of looking at things which has probative value. After all, the fundamentals eventually converge into the poll called Election Day. The other systems also look at fundamentals, but then also blend in poll data to varying degrees at various times. They decrease the discount of the poll data as Election Day approaches (which makes total sense). IMO fundamentals AND polls is the only way to fly.

Bottom line on Joe was that the non-personal fundamentals were very much in his favor — good economy, incumbent, weak opponent. Which is why Bill can argue he should still be running. 538's "fundamentals only" forecast had the race at Dem +3.3.

But Joe's polls completely sucked. 538s polling average was R +3.2 and projected to be R +1.5 at Election Day. Those lousy polls were despite the very favorable fundamentals. When you have that strong a divergence, imo you ignore the poll data at your peril. Which is why I can argue that Joe was a dead man walking and needed to go.

He was playing a very win-able home game but getting his ass kicked by a weak opponent!!

[njbill]

How was Michael Dukakis polling at this time in 1988?

[youthathletics]

Made for the job, oh vey, Peter Principle seems to apply: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1818296731655721420

[Kismet]

Made for the job, oh vey, Peter Principle seems to apply: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1818296731655721420

Like Musk is some sort of expert on stuff like this.

Currently, it looks like he isn't such a genius in auto manufacturing either.

[youthathletics]

Made for the job, oh vey, Peter Principle seems to apply: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1818296731655721420

Like Musk is some sort of expert on stuff like this.

Currently, it looks like he isn't such a genius in auto manufacturing either.

What does Musk have to do with Kamala talking, or was that babbling?

[a fan]

Made for the job, oh vey, Peter Principle seems to apply: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1818296731655721420

Like Musk is some sort of expert on stuff like this.

Currently, it looks like he isn't such a genius in auto manufacturing either.

What does Musk have to do with Kamala talking, or was that babbling?

He's your citation, my man. If you don't want Musk brought up? Don't cite Musk's feed.

And don't let Musk edit what you see....intentionally making what she says make no sense. If you want to claim she's not making
any sense? Post her answer without edits.

This is why you have to stop using X, YA. You do this every time.

And there is NOTHING from you, OS, Kram, or any of the other "Dems are bad" suspects on the Trump thread...discussing his platform, or his speeches..

Yet you claim to want to be evenhanded.

You're here to throw stones at Dems, and don't care....not even a little....as to what your crew is bringing.

[youthathletics]

Made for the job, oh vey, Peter Principle seems to apply: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1818296731655721420

Like Musk is some sort of expert on stuff like this.

Currently, it looks like he isn't such a genius in auto manufacturing either.

What does Musk have to do with Kamala talking, or was that babbling?

He's your citation, my man. If you don't want Musk brought up? Don't cite Musk's feed.

And don't let Musk edit what you see....intentionally making what she says make no sense. If you want to claim she's not making
any sense? Post her answer without edits.

This is why you have to stop using X, YA. You do this every time.

And there is NOTHING from you, OS, Kram, or any of the other "Dems are bad" suspects on the Trump thread...discussing his platform, or his speeches..

Yet you claim to want to be evenhanded.

You're here to throw stones at Dems, and don't care....not even a little....as to what your crew is bringing.

Fair and balanced.....no need for me to post negative Trump stuff, everyone else here does that for us and I've already set in stone that I am not a fan of Trump. And yet, only me, OS, Kramer get your prejudice...Why is that? We are the minority.....and it drives you all nuts. If we do not provide a balanced negative to all the other negative Trump hate....what do they call that?

[ggait]

How was Michael Dukakis polling at this time in 1988?

You still wearing big shoulder power suits, suspenders and slicked back hair like you did in the 80s? I don't think so.

You may not have noticed Bill, but politics and suits have changed since the 80s. A lot. Like polarized just a little bit more, maybe?

Reagan won 49 states in 1984!!!! He won MA, NY, IL, CA and Hawaii!!! You think it would be possible for a ticket of Jesus Christ and Abe Lincoln to win 49 states in an election today? NFW. But if you want to ignore how fundamentally different politics is today than 40 years ago, be my guest.

Different topic. You really should check out that new VHS rental store that just opened up in your neighborhood -- sooo many movies. Called Blockbuster -- I think it is going to be big. Will definitely help you get your money's worth on the VCR you sprung for at Radio Shack. Or did you buy that at Crazy Eddie's instead?

I'm here all night.

[Seacoaster(1)]

Made for the job, oh vey, Peter Principle seems to apply: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1818296731655721420

Like Musk is some sort of expert on stuff like this.

Currently, it looks like he isn't such a genius in auto manufacturing either.

What does Musk have to do with Kamala talking, or was that babbling?

He's your citation, my man. If you don't want Musk brought up? Don't cite Musk's feed.

And don't let Musk edit what you see....intentionally making what she says make no sense. If you want to claim she's not making
any sense? Post her answer without edits.

This is why you have to stop using X, YA. You do this every time.

And there is NOTHING from you, OS, Kram, or any of the other "Dems are bad" suspects on the Trump thread...discussing his platform, or his speeches..

Yet you claim to want to be evenhanded.

You're here to throw stones at Dems, and don't care....not even a little....as to what your crew is bringing.

YA finds X and Elon helpful in the never-ending battle to get Trump -- for whom he says he will not vote -- elected President of the United States. Don't ask him to give up bubblebathgirl, Laura Loomer and the other visionaries of the X-Right!!!!

[njbill]

A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.

You disregard everything that doesn’t support your narrative.

The point is sometimes the polls in the summer accurately predict the winner, sometimes they don’t.

But you are in a no-win situation now my friend who lives in a Colorado cave. You can never prove Joe would’ve lost.

Repeated failure to answer reasonably posed questions is a big tell.

[ggait]

You disregard everything that doesn’t support your narrative.

Bill -- You are projecting.

I will see your 1988 Dukakis comment and raise you with this.

On July 29 in 20, 16, 12 and 08, the person ahead in the poll average did win the popular vote on election day. In 04 Kerry was +0.8.

Netflix >>> Blockbuster.

[njbill]

Your infallible computers said the Phillies were going to beat the Yankees last night. Unfortunately for Phillies fans, that didn’t happen.

Ever heard of Y2K? Another swing and a miss by the computers.

And my favorite, which you always ignore: the New York Times computer gave Hillary an 80% chance of winning at 10 PM on election night.

Gee, how is it possible that computers make mistakes?

[NattyBohChamps04]

Elon Musk shares video with AI-generated voice of Kamala Harris

If you're following Elon Musk for political advice, then you're off your rocker.