2024

[OCanada]

I believe you’re being a bit too negative but understandably so. I think she has a fighters chance. I remember in 2016 the impact of the drop off in voting in the black community. I believe she has a chance to best Obama’s numbers. She is also on the right side of on issues like birth control, women’s rights. Trump will drive more to her over time. Still it is a very close race so they could be determinative. Turn out.

[ggait]

Fair Bill.

As I said before you are not convinced by the polls, forecasts or other data. You are going on your gut. That's not a diss -- that's what you actually believe. Which is fine. My view is 180 degrees opposite from that.

And few agree with you about Joe -- Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, Clooney, Nate Silver, me and 80% of Democrats. But we'll never know who was right. Because life isn't a double blind controlled trial.

How many World Series titles did Billy Beane’s teams win? Compare him to Pat Gillick.

Boy are you wrong about Moneyball!!!

It was highly successful in Oakland, but Oakland was still a small market limited resource team. Smarts can only do so much, especially when others start to copy your innovation. FYI, Beane's Moneyball is almost wholly derived from Bill James' system.

When John Henry bought the Red Sox, the first thing he did was hire Billy Beane as GM to implement Moneyball + money. Beane accepted but then backed out. That was before the Moneyball book was published.

Second thing John Henry did he was hire Bill James as an advisor. Third thing he did was hire James disciple and Yale grad Theo Epstein as GM. The rest, as they say, is history. WS titles in 2004 and 2007. And another in 2013. Moneyball broke the curse of the Bambino, for gods sake!!!!!

The data says that Moneyball is awesome. Like any innovation, it just doesn't work as well when others start doing it too. Especially when those others are richer than you.

[njbill]

Fair Bill.

As I said before you are not convinced by the polls, forecasts or other data. You are going on your gut. That's not a diss -- that's what you actually believe. Which is fine. My view is 180 degrees opposite from that.

And few agree with you about Joe -- Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, Clooney, Nate Silver, me and 80% of Democrats. But we'll never know who was right. Because life isn't a double blind controlled trial.

How many World Series titles did Billy Beane’s teams win? Compare him to Pat Gillick.

Boy are you wrong about Moneyball!!!

It was highly successful in Oakland, but Oakland was still a small market limited resource team. Smarts can only do so much, especially when others start to copy your innovation. FYI, Beane's Moneyball is almost wholly derived from Bill James' system.

When John Henry bought the Red Sox, the first thing he did was hire Billy Beane as GM to implement Moneyball + money. Beane accepted but then backed out. That was before the Moneyball book was published.

Second thing John Henry did he was hire Bill James as an advisor. Third thing he did was hire James disciple and Yale grad Theo Epstein as GM. The rest, as they say, is history. WS titles in 2004 and 2007. And another in 2013. Moneyball broke the curse of the Bambino, for gods sake!!!!!

The data says that Moneyball is awesome. Like any innovation, it just doesn't work as well when others start doing it too. Especially when those others are richer than you.

Wrong again. You continue to ignore the data I rely upon and try to paint me as someone who reads Tarot cards. Sheesh.

Not wrong about Beane. Geez. I said nothing about the Red Sox. You are changing the subject.

You are a data guy. That’s fine, but it is a very narrow view of the world. Nothing wrong with considering data, which is what I do, contrary to your repeated assertions to the contrary, but you need to look behind the data at the real world.

George Clooney? Are you really serious? He is a f*cking actor. You can’t seriously be mentioning him. Yep, the others definitely stabbed Joe in the back. Despicable.

[cradleandshoot]

Anyone paying attention to polling numbers at this point in time is engaging in a fools errand. The horses aren't even on the way to the starting gate. There is a ton of mud slinging and dirty deeds to be done. It will get much more fun once the starting gate opens and the track announcer states...and their off.

[cradleandshoot]

Fair Bill.

As I said before you are not convinced by the polls, forecasts or other data. You are going on your gut. That's not a diss -- that's what you actually believe. Which is fine. My view is 180 degrees opposite from that.

And few agree with you about Joe -- Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, Clooney, Nate Silver, me and 80% of Democrats. But we'll never know who was right. Because life isn't a double blind controlled trial.

How many World Series titles did Billy Beane’s teams win? Compare him to Pat Gillick.

Boy are you wrong about Moneyball!!!

It was highly successful in Oakland, but Oakland was still a small market limited resource team. Smarts can only do so much, especially when others start to copy your innovation. FYI, Beane's Moneyball is almost wholly derived from Bill James' system.

When John Henry bought the Red Sox, the first thing he did was hire Billy Beane as GM to implement Moneyball + money. Beane accepted but then backed out. That was before the Moneyball book was published.

Second thing John Henry did he was hire Bill James as an advisor. Third thing he did was hire James disciple and Yale grad Theo Epstein as GM. The rest, as they say, is history. WS titles in 2004 and 2007. And another in 2013. Moneyball broke the curse of the Bambino, for gods sake!!!!!

The data says that Moneyball is awesome. Like any innovation, it just doesn't work as well when others start doing it too. Especially when those others are richer than you.

Wrong again. You continue to ignore the data I rely upon and try to paint me as someone who reads Tarot cards. Sheesh.

Not wrong about Beane. Geez. I said nothing about the Red Sox. You are changing the subject.

You are a data guy. That’s fine, but it is a very narrow view of the world. Nothing wrong with considering data, which is what I do, contrary to your repeated assertions to the contrary, but you need to look behind the data at the real world.

George Clooney? Are you really serious? He is a f*cking actor. You can’t seriously be mentioning him. Yep, the others definitely stabbed Joe in the back. Despicable.

There are whispers coming out that Biden is pissed at how he was treated. Persuading Biden was the right thing to do. They way the people who supported him with unwielding loyalty then threw him under the bus and embarrassed and humiliated him in public will likely be used by the Republicans in campaign ads this fall. Poor Joe will spend the next 5 months being the lamest of lame duck presidents. The likelihood is not much will get done in DC until mid January at best.

[njbill]

You betcha Joe is pissed. And rightly so. His supposed partners in the Democratic Party stabbed him in the back and threw him under the bus.

The main villain is Pelosi, though Obama is not far behind. She persuaded the donors to cut off the money. When the books are written about this saga down the road, Pelosi and Obama are gonna come off really badly especially if Harris loses.

The Dems had the high moral ground over Trump and could claim they were working to save democracy. They totally blew it. What they just did is as anti-democratic as could be.

[jhu72]

Anyone paying attention to polling numbers at this point in time is engaging in a fools errand. The horses aren't even on the way to the starting gate. There is a ton of mud slinging and dirty deeds to be done. It will get much more fun once the starting gate opens and the track announcer states...and their off.

... don't often agree with C&S, but this is one time I do. Feel good about the dems chances but it is based solely on the prediction and observation of greatly increased democratic enthusiasm. A leading indicator. Nothing to do with the polls.

[jhu72]

Fair Bill.

As I said before you are not convinced by the polls, forecasts or other data. You are going on your gut. That's not a diss -- that's what you actually believe. Which is fine. My view is 180 degrees opposite from that.

And few agree with you about Joe -- Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, Clooney, Nate Silver, me and 80% of Democrats. But we'll never know who was right. Because life isn't a double blind controlled trial.

How many World Series titles did Billy Beane’s teams win? Compare him to Pat Gillick.

Boy are you wrong about Moneyball!!!

It was highly successful in Oakland, but Oakland was still a small market limited resource team. Smarts can only do so much, especially when others start to copy your innovation. FYI, Beane's Moneyball is almost wholly derived from Bill James' system.

When John Henry bought the Red Sox, the first thing he did was hire Billy Beane as GM to implement Moneyball + money. Beane accepted but then backed out. That was before the Moneyball book was published.

Second thing John Henry did he was hire Bill James as an advisor. Third thing he did was hire James disciple and Yale grad Theo Epstein as GM. The rest, as they say, is history. WS titles in 2004 and 2007. And another in 2013. Moneyball broke the curse of the Bambino, for gods sake!!!!!

The data says that Moneyball is awesome. Like any innovation, it just doesn't work as well when others start doing it too. Especially when those others are richer than you.

Wrong again. You continue to ignore the data I rely upon and try to paint me as someone who reads Tarot cards. Sheesh.

Not wrong about Beane. Geez. I said nothing about the Red Sox. You are changing the subject.

You are a data guy. That’s fine, but it is a very narrow view of the world. Nothing wrong with considering data, which is what I do, contrary to your repeated assertions to the contrary, but you need to look behind the data at the real world.

George Clooney? Are you really serious? He is a f*cking actor. You can’t seriously be mentioning him. Yep, the others definitely stabbed Joe in the back. Despicable.

There are whispers coming out that Biden is pissed at how he was treated. Persuading Biden was the right thing to do. They way the people who supported him with unwielding loyalty then threw him under the bus and embarrassed and humiliated him in public will likely be used by the Republicans in campaign ads this fall. Poor Joe will spend the next 5 months being the lamest of lame duck presidents. The likelihood is not much will get done in DC until mid January at best.

You are underestimating Biden's abilities and his grit.

[jhu72]

You betcha Joe is pissed. And rightly so. His supposed partners in the Democratic Party stabbed him in the back and threw him under the bus.

The main villain is Pelosi, though Obama is not far behind. She persuaded the donors to cut off the money. When the books are written about this saga down the road, Pelosi and Obama are gonna come off really badly especially if Harris loses. -- I think the role Pelosi and Obama played is greatly exaggerated.

The Dems had the high moral ground over Trump and could claim they were working to save democracy. They totally blew it. What they just did is as anti-democratic as could be. -- Joe was an active participant in the end.

... I continue to believe Biden could have won, just as Harris can. She has shaken-up the map with the enthusiasm generated. At this point worth more than polls. My kids and their friends (30 year olds) are majorly pumped, where they had been depressed about the choices. They were going to vote for Biden grudgingly, but the enthusiasm in their age cohort, the feeling of moving towards the future cannot be underestimated. They can sell Harris to their friends.

[njbill]

You betcha Joe is pissed. And rightly so. His supposed partners in the Democratic Party stabbed him in the back and threw him under the bus.

The main villain is Pelosi, though Obama is not far behind. She persuaded the donors to cut off the money. When the books are written about this saga down the road, Pelosi and Obama are gonna come off really badly especially if Harris loses. -- I think the role Pelosi and Obama played is greatly exaggerated.

The Dems had the high moral ground over Trump and could claim they were working to save democracy. They totally blew it. What they just did is as anti-democratic as could be. -- Joe was an active participant in the end.

... I continue to believe Biden could have won, just as Harris can. She has shaken-up the map with the enthusiasm generated. At this point worth more than polls. My kids and their friends (30 year olds) are majorly pumped, where they had been depressed about the choices. They were going to vote for Biden grudgingly, but the enthusiasm in their age cohort, the feeling of moving towards the future cannot be underestimated. They can sell Harris to their friends.

I suppose we shall see down the road when the books come out, but my read is that Pelosi was the primary mover on this. She first tried to persuade Joe privately. Joe refused to step down. She wouldn’t take no for an answer. She then leaked that she wanted Joe to step down. She threatened to leak internal Democratic polling. She frankly was disrespectful to Joe who is the president. She is the ex speaker. She should have adhered to the hierarchy and treated him with more respect. She almost treated him as though he was Trump.

Obama was more diplomatic, but he too got to the point where he was leaking that he wanted Joe out.

Understandably, this infuriated Joe.

All of the other Democratic politicians who came out against Joe only did so after it was clear to them that Pelosi and Obama were in the Joe-must-go-camp. No way any of them would’ve done that, whether that be Schumer or Jeffries or anybody else, without the approval of Obama and Pelosi.

Pelosi, ever the Machiavellian politician, persuaded the donors to cut off the money. With Pelosi and Obama and a lot of other Democrats going public with wanting Joe out, and with the money cut off, Joe was left with no choice.

I disagree that Joe was an active participant. He did not want to step down. He finally acquiesced as he lay there on the sidewalk, bleeding out. I would not call that being an active participant.

Now the Dems have staged an anti-democratic palace coup. I guarantee you I am not the only one who has dropped out of the Democratic Party over this.

Yes, Kamala will get more of the youth vote than Joe would have, but as I have said, young voters don’t vote. Look at the numbers that voted for Obama compared to the other demographics, and he probably got more of the youth vote than any other politician in recent memory.

There are lots of people like me who are not going to vote for Kamala and I’m (or was) a Democrat. And once you get into the independents and moderate Republicans, those numbers will skyrocket.

We are on a sugar high right now, but that will fade by early to mid September.

As I’ve been saying, only three states matter to the Democrats this year. If Kamala runs up the numbers in California, so what. She will not win Pennsylvania and without Pennsylvania will not win the White House. I hope I am wrong, but I’m quite confident I am not.

A key reason Hillary lost was that people thought she was unlikable. Is that a valid reason not to vote for her? Not in my book, but that was a key factor for many voters. Kamala is equally unlikable. Some think more so. That’s wrong, of course, but that’s the way it is. There are people who won’t vote for her because of the cackle of her laugh.

The Democrats have totally screwed this up. If they were going to take the anti-democratic approach of “firing” the incumbent President and elected nominee, they should have gone the full distance and stepped over the unelectable vice president. There are several combinations from the Democratic bench that could beat Trump. But Harris and TBD isn’t one of them.

As I’ve said, I sure hope I am wrong. Even though I am unlikely to vote for her, I want her to win in November.

[jhu72]

Pelosi was not a first mover. It was the west coast money guys - a bunch of rabbit hearts. Pelosi is not a rabbit heart. She does however listen to the money. Obama as well. This was started by the west coast money and purple state democrats realizing they would have to work to be re-elected. Early on these folks lied about senators and non-purple state house representatives losing races (falling behind). They over sold it. I don't think Pelosi fell for that. I doubt Pelosi of Obama or the money guys had Harris as their first choice. Harris is where she is because she was Biden's first choice.

As I said enthusiasm is off the hook. Gen-X is excited, where they said they would not vote again for Biden, they would sit out, they are now looking forward to voting for Harris. The Gaza war folks who voted uncommitted (including one of mine) in the primaries are coming back. They feel they have a win -- they punished Biden. Haley's republicans are now excited, they get to vote for a women.

Biden is now seen as keeping what many took to be a promise made in 2020 - he would be one term and turn over to a new generation.

Apparently, Shapiro is in the running for VP. I thought his initial response was one of no interest. If he is the VP candidate and they win, who becomes PA governor??

[a fan]

Pelosi was not a first mover. It was the west coast money guys - a bunch of rabbit hearts. Pelosi is not a rabbit heart. She does however listen to the money. Obama as well. This was started by the west coast money and purple state democrats realizing they would have to work to be re-elected. Early on these folks lied about senators and non-purple state house representatives losing races (falling behind). They over sold it. I don't think Pelosi fell for that. I doubt Pelosi of Obama or the money guys had Harris as their first choice. Harris is where she is because she was Biden's first choice.

As I said enthusiasm is off the hook. Gen-X is excited, where they said they would not vote again for Biden, they would sit out, they are now looking forward to voting for Harris. The Gaza war folks who voted uncommitted (including one of mine) in the primaries are coming back. They feel they have a win -- they punished Biden. Haley's republicans are now excited, they get to vote for a women.

Biden is now seen as keeping what many took to be a promise made in 2020 - he would be one term and turn over to a new generation.

Apparently, Shapiro is in the running for VP. I thought his initial response was one of no interest. If he is the VP candidate and they win, who becomes PA governor??

Clear as day, it was about down-ticket elections.

[Kismet]

Pelosi was not a first mover. It was the west coast money guys - a bunch of rabbit hearts. Pelosi is not a rabbit heart. She does however listen to the money. Obama as well. This was started by the west coast money and purple state democrats realizing they would have to work to be re-elected. Early on these folks lied about senators and non-purple state house representatives losing races (falling behind). They over sold it. I don't think Pelosi fell for that. I doubt Pelosi of Obama or the money guys had Harris as their first choice. Harris is where she is because she was Biden's first choice.

As I said enthusiasm is off the hook. Gen-X is excited, where they said they would not vote again for Biden, they would sit out, they are now looking forward to voting for Harris. The Gaza war folks who voted uncommitted (including one of mine) in the primaries are coming back. They feel they have a win -- they punished Biden. Haley's republicans are now excited, they get to vote for a women.

Biden is now seen as keeping what many took to be a promise made in 2020 - he would be one term and turn over to a new generation.

Apparently, Shapiro is in the running for VP. I thought his initial response was one of no interest. If he is the VP candidate and they win, who becomes PA governor??

Clear as day, it was about down-ticket elections.

If that should happen, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, (also a Democrat) would be elevated to the position but only if the Democratic ticket wins in November.

Similar for Sen. Kelly where the Democratic governor would appoint a replacement to serve until the next election (November 2025) to serve the balance of his term (until 2028)

[MDlaxfan76]

You betcha Joe is pissed. And rightly so. His supposed partners in the Democratic Party stabbed him in the back and threw him under the bus.

The main villain is Pelosi, though Obama is not far behind. She persuaded the donors to cut off the money. When the books are written about this saga down the road, Pelosi and Obama are gonna come off really badly especially if Harris loses.

The Dems had the high moral ground over Trump and could claim they were working to save democracy. They totally blew it. What they just did is as anti-democratic as could be.

You're right about Clooney as irrelevant, (other than perhaps as another canary in the coal mine).

But I think you're wrong about the professional politicians. They're pros. They looked at data, they looked at money flow, they looked at trend lines, they looked at down ballot impacts, and they made a consistent judgment across the board. Fully understanding the downside risks. A whole lot of them who know this business way, way better than any of us Fanlax posters.

Could Joe have won? We'll never know, but a heck of a lot of people looked at that debate, just like I did, as an epic disaster which turned an uphill chance of winning (when by all my measures should have been a runaway given the horribleness of the alternative) to a potential landslide defeat. Didn't mean I wasn't going to vote for Joe given the alternative, but man, it was depressing. And he did nothing in the ensuing weeks to prove the debate was a one-off or that there was any way he could meet the demand for fresh new face and ideas, a generational shift. Just nothing left in the quiver.

I disagree about "anti-democratic" as the representatives of 14 million die hard primary voters get the final say. Another 65 million+ will likely show up and vote for her...hopefully on the + side of that.

Joe weighed in hard on behalf of Harris but the delegates weren't bound to do what he advised...they made their own calculations on behalf of those who voted for them and their own beliefs as to what had the best chance of success. Super swiftly, because, IMO, it was super obvious. That no one wanted to challenge Harris isn't "anti-democratic" it's that they understand the strength of her pole position and the benefits of rallying to her side.

Just importantly, the massive outpouring of small donor support, 60% brand new donors, speaks volumes about what folks think about this call. Same for the massive sign-up of new volunteers.

The Dems very much still have the moral high ground over Trump...it ain't close and grinding about it does zero good.

As I wrote earlier, the Brits tossed aside Churchill shortly after the end of the war, a war they very likely would not have survived absent his leadership. History looks super favorably on Churchill and for much the same reasons I think history will do the same for Biden.

But, yes, Harris needs to win...let's get behind that full force.

[njbill]

Pelosi was not a first mover. It was the west coast money guys - a bunch of rabbit hearts. Pelosi is not a rabbit heart. She does however listen to the money. Obama as well. This was started by the west coast money and purple state democrats realizing they would have to work to be re-elected. Early on these folks lied about senators and non-purple state house representatives losing races (falling behind). They over sold it. I don't think Pelosi fell for that. I doubt Pelosi of Obama or the money guys had Harris as their first choice. Harris is where she is because she was Biden's first choice.

As I said enthusiasm is off the hook. Gen-X is excited, where they said they would not vote again for Biden, they would sit out, they are now looking forward to voting for Harris. The Gaza war folks who voted uncommitted (including one of mine) in the primaries are coming back. They feel they have a win -- they punished Biden. Haley's republicans are now excited, they get to vote for a women.

Biden is now seen as keeping what many took to be a promise made in 2020 - he would be one term and turn over to a new generation.

Apparently, Shapiro is in the running for VP. I thought his initial response was one of no interest. If he is the VP candidate and they win, who becomes PA governor??

West Coast money has never been enamored with Biden. He has never been their darling like Obama or Hillary. WC did not go for Biden in 2016 or in the 2020 primaries. Biden has gotten his money from Delaware corporate over the course of his career. The only time WC $ stepped up for Joe was after he got the nomination in 2020 and that was because WC and everyone else wanted to beat Trump.

There absolutely was early (i.e., pre-debate), and now well-reported, skittishness from the WC (still holding on to its age old lack of enthusiasm and even outright distain for Joe), but WC didn't really go live until after the debate. For Pelosi, the debate was a critical turning point. Less so for Obama who is (was) more loyal to Joe, but he too was very concerned. Both reached out privately to Joe, expressed serious concern, and asked about undisclosed health issues.

WC may have been the first to move publicly but that was not without the OK (implicit or explicit) of Pelosi and Obama. Clooney is close to Obama and would never have gone public as he did without Obama's express OK.

Joe saw all this happening and knew exactly what was going on. He was at the same time seething and fighting for his political life.

Pelosi and Obama ganged up on Joe and privately urged him to step down. Joe refused. Not sure how those conversations went, but knowing the personalities of Nancy and Joe, I suspect they were quite testy. Pelosi threatened Joe with going public, which she did, first through leaks, then in easy to translate public comments. Obama was not as crude, but he too started working behind the scenes and eventually allowed his position to leak.

Agree that the swing state "the sky is falling" complainers didn't really convince anyone.

No doubt youthful enthusiasm is high now. And maybe it will last. And maybe the young will turn out in droves for Harris. But how many older voters will she lose for every young voter she gets? I don't know the answer. But most significantly, comparatively there aren't a lot of young voters in PA while there are a ton of older voters.

Compared to Trump and Biden, Harris seems young, but chronologically (age 59) she really isn't. At this point in their first campaigns, Clinton was 45 and Obama 46. I wonder if at some point the young voters are going to realize Kamala isn't really that young. Perhaps not since she is running against an old man in Trump, but it may give some voters some pause. She isn't a new generation politician.

I'm not a fan of Axe, but he sees Trump as the favorite.

I like Shapiro though he's a bit too photo-oppy for me. He would help in PA to be sure, but he would hurt in Michigan due to his being Jewish and his positions on the war and the protesters.

I prefer Kelly. I see he has "fixed" his "problem" with labor. Not sure if labor will buy into this expedient 11th hour switch. But he is a good guy who I would think would have some blue collar appeal.

What a mess.

[Seacoaster(1)]

You betcha Joe is pissed. And rightly so. His supposed partners in the Democratic Party stabbed him in the back and threw him under the bus.

The main villain is Pelosi, though Obama is not far behind. She persuaded the donors to cut off the money. When the books are written about this saga down the road, Pelosi and Obama are gonna come off really badly especially if Harris loses.

The Dems had the high moral ground over Trump and could claim they were working to save democracy. They totally blew it. What they just did is as anti-democratic as could be.

You're right about Clooney as irrelevant, (other than perhaps as another canary in the coal mine).

But I think you're wrong about the professional politicians. They're pros. They looked at data, they looked at money flow, they looked at trend lines, they looked at down ballot impacts, and they made a consistent judgment across the board. Fully understanding the downside risks. A whole lot of them who know this business way, way better than any of us Fanlax posters.

Could Joe have won? We'll never know, but a heck of a lot of people looked at that debate, just like I did, as an epic disaster which turned an uphill chance of winning (when by all my measures should have been a runaway given the horribleness of the alternative) to a potential landslide defeat. Didn't mean I wasn't going to vote for Joe given the alternative, but man, it was depressing. And he did nothing in the ensuing weeks to prove the debate was a one-off or that there was any way he could meet the demand for fresh new face and ideas, a generational shift. Just nothing left in the quiver.

I disagree about "anti-democratic" as the representatives of 14 million die hard primary voters get the final say. Another 65 million+ will likely show up and vote for her...hopefully on the + side of that.

Joe weighed in hard on behalf of Harris but the delegates weren't bound to do what he advised...they made their own calculations on behalf of those who voted for them and their own beliefs as to what had the best chance of success. Super swiftly, because, IMO, it was super obvious. That no one wanted to challenge Harris isn't "anti-democratic" it's that they understand the strength of her pole position and the benefits of rallying to her side.

Just importantly, the massive outpouring of small donor support, 60% brand new donors, speaks volumes about what folks think about this call. Same for the massive sign-up of new volunteers.

The Dems very much still have the moral high ground over Trump...it ain't close and grinding about it does zero good.

As I wrote earlier, the Brits tossed aside Churchill shortly after the end of the war, a war they very likely would not have survived absent his leadership. History looks super favorably on Churchill and for much the same reasons I think history will do the same for Biden.

But, yes, Harris needs to win...let's get behind that full force.

For what it's worth, my kids (28, 25) and all of their friends, whom I regularly see around our town or who communicate regularly with them, were gobsmacked by the debate performance. Their regular way of consuming news and communicating it -- social media, Instagram, the odious TikTok, etc. -- amplified Joe's age and relative infirmity in a way that I, anyway, really couldn't understand or absorb.

I have the highest regard for njbill, but I do think the professional political people did the right thing. If Biden is pissed, then having been a President, Vice President, and multi-term Senator will at least be something to sink back into at the end of the line. History will remember Biden with both kindness and respect. I know I will.

[youthathletics]

This type of shenanigans is not uncommon with the Democrats....who can forget how Clinton, Brazile, screwed Bernie...essentially allowing HRC control over the DNCommitte.


I am with njbill...I really think Pelosi and crew told donors to turn off the spigot; its the only way Joe and JIll will acknowledge they need to shut it down, and keep him in the office until Januar2025.

The nation has been okie-doked by the democrats, yet again. It's far more than just Joe 'maybe' being made, its most everyone who sees through the shenanigans.

[a fan]

This type of shenanigans is not uncommon with the Democrats....who can forget how Clinton, Brazile, screwed Bernie...essentially allowing HRC control over the DNCommitte.


I am with njbill...I really think Pelosi and crew told donors to turn off the spigot; its the only way Joe and JIll will acknowledge they need to shut it down, and keep him in the office until Januar2025.

The nation has been okie-doked by the democrats, yet again. It's far more than just Joe 'maybe' being made, its most everyone who sees through the shenanigans.

Welcome to political parties. They make the rules, and decide who follows them. Same as it ever was.

All you have to do is registers indie, and take your power back.

[Farfromgeneva]

The big flaw in your computer analyses is that they cannot predict the future. They provide what they think is a snapshot of today. You seem to be obsessed with Nate Silver. Maybe his predictions days before election day were correct. I highly doubt his predictions four months out were as accurate as his election eve predictions.

How many times have I said that I agree Joe was at a low point of his polling, but that I thought he would recover. The last Joe polls were conducted almost 4 months before the election in the middle of the summer. While the media is rabidly focused on every minute by minute development in the race, the vast majority of the voters are not. They are on summer vacation, dragging their kids around to camps, and doing other things. Voters generally do not really focus on the election until after Labor Day.

Again, you only point to the stats that support your position. You do not mention the stats that were more favorable to Joe. Yes, I read all of them, but no, I’m not going to take the time to dig them out. You know they are there as well if you read all of the polls.

My thesis is very simple. Had the party elites simply discussed their concerns with Joe privately after the debate and had Joe then decided to stay in the race, they should have publicly backed him with trumpets blazing. Same for the empty Talking Heads on tv. All people heard on TV nonstop for the last month was how old, decrepit, and feeble Joe is. And then leaks started from the party elites, stabbing Joe in the back. I firmly believe that if the party elites and TV Talking Heads had been fully supportive of Joe, the situation would be dramatically different.

In any event, we are where we are today. I am disgusted with the Democratic Party. For years now they have been saying that they are the party trying to save democracy. Well, they just did the most undemocratic, autocratic thing. They took away the candidate voted in by the people and replaced him with their own person. Hypocritical to the nth degree. If they are going to dispense with the democratic approach, they should go the whole way and dump Harris. They should come up with a ticket that can win. Lots of combinations out there could beat Trump.

I have been a registered Democrat for decades. But I’m done with the Democratic Party. On Monday I mailed in a form changing my voter registration from Democrat to independent. I have asked the candidates to whom I have given money to refund it to me. Don’t know if I will get my money back. Don’t know if I am even entitled to get it back.

My initial inclination was to vote for Kamala, but I am having second thoughts about that. Right now I am leaning towards writing in someone. Maybe my late dog as a protest against Kristi Noem.

There are a lot of people who feel as I do. Some will still vote for Harris, but some number (not sure how many) will not. And that’s the Democrats. Once you get into the independents and the moderate Republicans, you are going to find there is even less support for Kamala.

We will now never know if Joe could’ve won. But we are going to find out that Kamala won’t win.

Your heavy reliance on statistics reminds me of my nephews. They wanted the Eagles to sign Russell Wilson when he was leaving Seattle based on some cockamamie numerical analysis. How would that have worked out?

How many World Series titles did Billy Beane’s teams win? Compare him to Pat Gillick.

I scout for a high school team. I look at all the numbers. They tell me which players I should be focusing on. But I then rely heavily on the eye test, which provides me insight on lots and lots of things the numbers can’t.

Your scout high schools? Like this ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WA_42DHkWvI

[a fan]

This type of shenanigans is not uncommon with the Democrats....who can forget how Clinton, Brazile, screwed Bernie...essentially allowing HRC control over the DNCommitte.


I am with njbill...I really think Pelosi and crew told donors to turn off the spigot; its the only way Joe and JIll will acknowledge they need to shut it down, and keep him in the office until Januar2025.

The nation has been okie-doked by the democrats, yet again. It's far more than just Joe 'maybe' being made, its most everyone who sees through the shenanigans.

Welcome to political parties. They make the rules, and decide who follows them. Same as it ever was.

All you have to do is registers indie, and take your power back.

....to wit:

Headline: Democrats approve rules for likely Harris nomination


https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/24/politics ... index.html