2024

[Seacoaster(1)]

Russian state television expressing doubts about JD Vance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5tOrJQRLMg

[cradleandshoot]

Waiting for that Kid Rock/Ted Nugent concert? Try this first:

https://ukdiscoverer.com/breaking-news- ... la-harris/

Yep...gotta get money out of politics. Wait, money is the life blood of politics. Kamala sure does have some heavy hitters filling up her coffers.
You might be on to something with Kid and Ted. They could do a charity gig for the big money Republicans. 1 million dollars a pop and everyone gets a front row seat and you don't even have to actually show up. As Teddy would say...Wango Tango baby.

[Farfromgeneva]

Biden on his best day would have a tough time beating Trump in golf. Catch this video of Trump and Bryson Dechambeau doing a two man scramble from the forward tees at Bedminster and trying to break 50. Trump made birdie and eagle on his own ball. Raised a lot of money for Wounded Warrior Project.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rb9b8rYhII&t=1314s

So this is a serious post with a. Link to Trump golfing?

[MDlaxfan76]

How long before YA or OS repeats a cute nickname given to Kamala Harris by Trump or someone on social media? Over or under 3.5 days?

Best chance the Dems have is Trump crosses too many lines with a black woman as his support is bolstered meaningfully by gains in minorities. If he loses them she’s got a small chance. Hope she puts the right team together .

Ironically I’m pissed at that sorry and don’t know if I’m that constructive on her if you gave me a full field and normal conditions and yet it’s likely to get me to move from not voting for pres to voting Dem for the second time in my life (for pres) in a tight state.

Doesn’t make it all sweet though .

Code already is “DEI candidate.”

You must have some Navajo in you. You are the self anointed forum " code talker " You instinctively are attuned to things that nobody else knows.

Ask your wife what they mean by that term if it confuses you.

“Nobody else knows”…

I know what it means. A very good army friend of mine was a Navajo Indian. The code talkers are still idolized among the Navajo to this day. I don't speak in code. You should at least understand that by now. My wife is another story. I'm still trying to figure out her own special code. If she says that the garbage is really full that is code talk for you need to empty the garbage. There are different variations but they all mean the same thing.

yes, we fail to decipher our wives' code at our own peril.

Accusing someone of being a DEI hire, as you admit you know, is code on the hard right for misogyny or racism or homophobia or some combination of such bigotries. It is intentionally demeaning, suggesting that the person isn't qualified for the job...why?...because, in this case, she's a she and moreover, she's black/asian and daughter of immigrants, pick your bigotry...you get the same coded stuff with a-holes like Vance who just claimed she's "not thankful enough" that she's an American, as if she, especially, needs to be thankful...given, what, her racial or child of immigrants or female status? Flat bigoted.

He also suggested that she's not "qualified"...when she's obviously far more accomplished than he is.

It's all a wink wink nod to the bigots.
Ugly stuff that should rightfully be mocked and flat rejected.

And your astute evaluation is coming from the same guy who tried to convince everybody on this forum that Joe Bidens obvious cognitive decline was nothing more than a residual effect from his stuttering issue.

Are you saying that's not what they mean?
If so why?

And no, I argued that Biden's stuttering issue preexisted his stumbling over his words early in his term. He was being super effective as President and that was clear to me, no problem. He's obviously had actual physical decline this past year, albeit I still believe he's fully capable of sound decision making...at least for now. But he isn't capable of competing effectively in a campaign mode in a country wanting something new. And the physical decline is real and will continue, and that's going to include processing speed mentally as well...probably has already started.

But I'd still much prefer Biden and his team to a deranged, dangerous Trump and his fascist team. Pretty simple, really.

[MDlaxfan76]

Russian state television expressing doubts about JD Vance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5tOrJQRLMg

Interesting!

[youthathletics]

Russian state television expressing doubts about JD Vance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5tOrJQRLMg

Interesting!

All of a sudden you guys are promoting russia commentary, the irony is priceless.

[old salt]

Imagine what a formidable ticket that Kelly - Shapiro would make, & what an effective governing team they'd be.

It's not too late. If Kamala reverts to form & fizzles before the convention, they could still dump her. It's all about winning.

[Kismet]

Imagine what a formidable ticket that Kelly - Shapiro would make, & what an effective governing team they'd be.

It's not too late. If Kamala reverts to form & fizzles before the convention, they could still dump her. It's all about winning.

You'd eventually hate them, too.

[Seacoaster(1)]

Russian state television expressing doubts about JD Vance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5tOrJQRLMg

Interesting!

All of a sudden you guys are promoting russia commentary, the irony is priceless.

I have been following and posting Russian State TV's fawning over Trump for quite some time. Nothing ironic about it; the Russian Federation wants Trump to be the President, because the Czar knows that Trump is venal, malleable, policy-free and completely disinterested in the multilateralism that has kept us safe for nearly 70 years.

[old salt]

Imagine what a formidable ticket that Kelly - Shapiro would make, & what an effective governing team they'd be.

It's not too late. If Kamala reverts to form & fizzles before the convention, they could still dump her. It's all about winning.

You'd eventually hate them, too.

I liked Kelly (& his brother) when I met them & served with them > 3 decades ago. Still do.

[MDlaxfan76]

Russian state television expressing doubts about JD Vance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5tOrJQRLMg

Interesting!

All of a sudden you guys are promoting russia commentary, the irony is priceless.

yes, it's obviously ridiculously full of disinformation and confusion, but interesting to see some of the tacks they're taking.

JD scares Dems worse than Trump so don't kill Trump...it's a civil war...

One guy clearly has JD pegged as a flip flopper...but wow, he changed sexual preference?? Didn't know that...

Seriously, it's disinformation mocking the US chaos...Russian system is better...

[Typical Lax Dad]

Imagine what a formidable ticket that Kelly - Shapiro would make, & what an effective governing team they'd be.

It's not too late. If Kamala reverts to form & fizzles before the convention, they could still dump her. It's all about winning.

You'd eventually hate them, too.

I liked Kelly (& his brother) when I met them & served with them > 3 decades ago. Still do.

“Revert” to what form?

[old salt]

Imagine what a formidable ticket that Kelly - Shapiro would make, & what an effective governing team they'd be.

It's not too late. If Kamala reverts to form & fizzles before the convention, they could still dump her. It's all about winning.

You'd eventually hate them, too.

I liked Kelly (& his brother) when I met them & served with them > 3 decades ago. Still do.

“Revert” to what form?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Jihadist JD is no different than that DEI Jihadist at the FTC!!

https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newslett ... -jd-vance/

[Typical Lax Dad]

Imagine what a formidable ticket that Kelly - Shapiro would make, & what an effective governing team they'd be.

It's not too late. If Kamala reverts to form & fizzles before the convention, they could still dump her. It's all about winning.

You'd eventually hate them, too.

I liked Kelly (& his brother) when I met them & served with them > 3 decades ago. Still do.

“Revert” to what form?

Yeah and?

[Kismet]

Imagine what a formidable ticket that Kelly - Shapiro would make, & what an effective governing team they'd be.

It's not too late. If Kamala reverts to form & fizzles before the convention, they could still dump her. It's all about winning.

You'd eventually hate them, too.

I liked Kelly (& his brother) when I met them & served with them > 3 decades ago. Still do.

Until he's on the ticket in which case, you'll then hate the guy.

[ggait]

The polls are one thing, but the statistical projections are next to worthless, I think.

Bill -- I love analytics in all areas. As with sports and many other areas, advanced analytics imo can be a very powerful tool to get insights.

If we are going to argue Bryce Harper vs. Aaron Judge, I'm going to be looking at OPS, not homers and batting average. Jordan vs. LeBron, I'll be arguing the WAR and RAPTOR data. [FYI, the numbers say peak Jordan > peak LeBron; career LeBron >> career Jordan.] St. Johns vs. Nova, I look at what KenPom.com says about that game.

If I'm discussing Joe vs. Trump, I'm looking at what Nate Silver's analytics say. NFW am I listening to the anectdotal stories from Chuck Todd or Joe Scarborough. Because Silver's track record is very long and strong.

2008 -- correctly predicted 49 out of 50 EC state outcomes. 2012 -- correctly predicted 50 out of 50. He gave Obama a 90.9% chance of winning, while many other non-data commenters thought Romney had a real shot -- crowd size! yard signs! folks at my diner! In 2020, Silver got 48/50 states right and gave Joe an 89% win probability. While 2020 wasn't a blowout, Joe had it pretty much in the bag the whole time. Does that look worthless to you?

Trump winning in 2016 was, of course, an upset. Silver gave Trump a 28.6% win probability -- much higher than many others forecast. That's 3X higher win probability than Romney 2012 or Trump 2020. Two heads in a row is 25%. 25% probability events do happen -- about 25% of the time actually.

So what was Silver saying about Joe 2024? 10-15% win probability. Which is about the chance of drawing to an inside straight. The 2024 race was NEVER a toss up. Joe was an underdog the whole time and it was getting worse. You do not draw to the inside straight -- you fold.

You say Joe would have won PA. The computers said only a 19% chance. With all due respect Bill, I'm going with the computers. Because they are smarter than us -- and Skynet is about to become self-aware.

I will check back in when enough polling comes in to allow the forecast models to reset. I expect Kamal to have a higer win probability than Joe's 10-15%. But what do I know. I'm a human too -- so the computers are smarter than me as well.

Hope you found that interesting and not snarky.

P.S. It is looking very good for the Phillies. Leading the majors in Pythagorean win percentage -- which is much more important than actual win percentage imo.

[ggait]

Imagine what a formidable ticket that Kelly - Shapiro would make, & what an effective governing team they'd be.

False.

Salty has told us that all the good tickets must be topped by Jim Webb. No exceptions.

Which is ridiculous. Since Bill Bradley is the GOAT presidential candidate. Obvi.

[jhu72]

Liberal Redneck's Latest Videp Blog

[njbill]

The big flaw in your computer analyses is that they cannot predict the future. They provide what they think is a snapshot of today. You seem to be obsessed with Nate Silver. Maybe his predictions days before election day were correct. I highly doubt his predictions four months out were as accurate as his election eve predictions.

How many times have I said that I agree Joe was at a low point of his polling, but that I thought he would recover. The last Joe polls were conducted almost 4 months before the election in the middle of the summer. While the media is rabidly focused on every minute by minute development in the race, the vast majority of the voters are not. They are on summer vacation, dragging their kids around to camps, and doing other things. Voters generally do not really focus on the election until after Labor Day.

Again, you only point to the stats that support your position. You do not mention the stats that were more favorable to Joe. Yes, I read all of them, but no, I’m not going to take the time to dig them out. You know they are there as well if you read all of the polls.

My thesis is very simple. Had the party elites simply discussed their concerns with Joe privately after the debate and had Joe then decided to stay in the race, they should have publicly backed him with trumpets blazing. Same for the empty Talking Heads on tv. All people heard on TV nonstop for the last month was how old, decrepit, and feeble Joe is. And then leaks started from the party elites, stabbing Joe in the back. I firmly believe that if the party elites and TV Talking Heads had been fully supportive of Joe, the situation would be dramatically different.

In any event, we are where we are today. I am disgusted with the Democratic Party. For years now they have been saying that they are the party trying to save democracy. Well, they just did the most undemocratic, autocratic thing. They took away the candidate voted in by the people and replaced him with their own person. Hypocritical to the nth degree. If they are going to dispense with the democratic approach, they should go the whole way and dump Harris. They should come up with a ticket that can win. Lots of combinations out there could beat Trump.

I have been a registered Democrat for decades. But I’m done with the Democratic Party. On Monday I mailed in a form changing my voter registration from Democrat to independent. I have asked the candidates to whom I have given money to refund it to me. Don’t know if I will get my money back. Don’t know if I am even entitled to get it back.

My initial inclination was to vote for Kamala, but I am having second thoughts about that. Right now I am leaning towards writing in someone. Maybe my late dog as a protest against Kristi Noem.

There are a lot of people who feel as I do. Some will still vote for Harris, but some number (not sure how many) will not. And that’s the Democrats. Once you get into the independents and the moderate Republicans, you are going to find there is even less support for Kamala.

We will now never know if Joe could’ve won. But we are going to find out that Kamala won’t win.

Your heavy reliance on statistics reminds me of my nephews. They wanted the Eagles to sign Russell Wilson when he was leaving Seattle based on some cockamamie numerical analysis. How would that have worked out?

How many World Series titles did Billy Beane’s teams win? Compare him to Pat Gillick.

I scout for a high school team. I look at all the numbers. They tell me which players I should be focusing on. But I then rely heavily on the eye test, which provides me insight on lots and lots of things the numbers can’t.