Championship-ND Vs. MD On Monday, 05/27, At 12:00 PM

[FannOLax]

Yes, the earlier start time favors the team that played the first semi, ND (and it seems when the Terps reach the Final Four, they generally play the second semi). But might the mucky field conditions caused by rain on natural grass generally equalize the odds between the favorite and the underdog?

[Wheels]

Wierman has faced Lynch 3 previous times. Lynch has gone 12-18, 11-30, and 4-13. That 12-18 performance came during the March match-up this year.

Wierman was rumored to be banged up in that game, but nothing was official.

Wierman right now is on a 55-77 tear (71%) with 3 goals and an assist over the 3 NCAAT games.

What Lynch's 12-18 March performance an indication of what's to come or an outlier? Or were the 2 earlier meetings more likely?

A reversion to mean probably won't be enough for Maryland. Wierman needs to get close to 60%, IMO, to give the Terps enough possessions to win.

While I'd love to see the Terps commit fewer than 15 TOs, I doubt that's gonna happen at this point.

One of the things about ND's ride is that they don't need to be in a 10-man to be effective. Pat the Elder and Chris the Younger just never stop, never give up, and just harass the hell out of defensive ball carriers. Terrapin long poles have to be calm under pressure and be strong with the ball.

ND is probably going to double pole the Terps' midfield. I'd expect Lyght to bump up. He had Erksa's number in game 1. Conlin probably bangs around with Spanos at X.

Entenmann had two sub-45% games in rounds 1 and 2 of the tournament, but he was good against Denver.

I suspect we're going to see Bernhardt draw up a game plan to try and limit the Brothers Kavanagh from distributing. ND hums when that midfield gets going, but they need distribution from the attack. So does Taylor. Ajax to Pat the Elder. I'm guessing Schaller to Chris the Younger. Burlace plays off-ball on Taylor. I can't recall the last time I saw the Terps double-poled a midfield unit. I'm guessing they won't tomorrow.

[Farfromgeneva]

Having watched the semis both winners has massive possession and fo advantages of FO and goalie are a wash as great as MD has played in the playoffs hard to see them matching up on offense.

Refs really swallowed their whistles yesterday too. Saw a lot that often gets called not called. Will that be the same tomorrow?

If the refs swallow the whistles that will probably help Maryland; although the Terps are not a big riding team and are thus not heavily penalized (vs. Notre Dame with an aggressive ride that results in more fouls) Notre Dame's EMO unit is so other-worldly that Terps really cannot afford man down situations other than maybe a few stray 30 second violations.

Agreed a less closely officiated game should benefit MD. Do we trust them to behave the same tomorrow. They did a great job shutting down the UVA two man game but were pretty physical doing so. I love that play but a lot of times I’d see those plays flagged.

Also, how do you hire Cassese after that game and Lehigh winning the PL minus the two studs they he who left the prior two years (Mule and the one who went to Duke two years ago in spacing on)?

Yeah, I think the refs will officiate it fairly similarly. When UVA beat Yale in the 2019 national championship game I was at the game and the aggressive UVA ride with no calls for slashing, etc. was quite helpful to UVA in getting the momentum which they never let go (they absolutely were the better team that day). So normally I'd say this could be an advantage for Notre Dame (won't get called on some of those one hand attackman axe swing checks) but because ND's EMO is off the charts good if the refs just let 'em play that's a good thing for the Terps.

I think Cassese's stock has gone down a bit. (I personally would have a hard time hiring someone who walked away from a head coaching job to take an assistant's job but if it seemed like he was an offensive genius that wouldn't matter a bit.)

What was fascinating is P Kav tried a really weak a-** euro style neck snap back and the refs just ignored it which is the right move. He didn’t try it again all game/. Loved that /

[KI Dock Bar]

Poor weather conditions always favor the less-skilled team as a fast track favors the more-skilled team. I'll take the Terps in a mud-fest, 9-8!

[BigTurn]

There is just about zero chance this Irish offense is held to single digits

[LaxPundit07]

https://www.si.com/nfl/eagles/news/phil ... g-surfaces


I don’t expect a mudfest. The surface is a hybrid and holds up real well in poor weather.

[azim21]

I’m pretty sure most of the rain is coming in the evening, which is why they moved up the game start. I don’t think weather will be a factor at all. Although then again, I see conflicting reports based on where I check. As someone going to the game, I just hope it stays away for the 2 hours during.

[azim21]

Ingredients for a Maryland win:

-Wierman has to get over not just to 50%
-McNaney needs to get to 50%
-Gotta be below 15 TOs
-Turn both Kavanaghs into goal scorers and not distributors (they account for more than 50% of ND's assists)

The first 3 are about possessions.

The last is about getting Notre Dame into a rock fight. My guess is Jesse Bernhardt's defensive game plan will attempt to do just that.

Turn Chris Kav into a goal scorer? Yeah I’d love that! Dudes been on a tear during the tourney as a shooter. Pat Kav is more of a feeder so I agree turning him into a scorer is the move, but even he has shown he’s a 2 dimensional player this year. Ajax won’t make it easy though and I don’t anticipate Pat being the star tomorrow. But if he is, then the tewaaraton may be his with Shelly getting locked down in the final four.

[keno in reno]

This is Notre Dame's best team ever (and that's a great recent history). This is Maryland's 10th-12th best team in 13 seasons. Notre Dame should win this game easily.

My thought is, how many goals would Maryland have to lose by to not be ranked #2 (which I think is a tremendous accomplishment considering everything)?

[Wheels]

Ingredients for a Maryland win:

-Wierman has to get over not just to 50%
-McNaney needs to get to 50%
-Gotta be below 15 TOs
-Turn both Kavanaghs into goal scorers and not distributors (they account for more than 50% of ND's assists)

The first 3 are about possessions.

The last is about getting Notre Dame into a rock fight. My guess is Jesse Bernhardt's defensive game plan will attempt to do just that.

Turn Chris Kav into a goal scorer? Yeah I’d love that! Dudes been on a tear during the tourney as a shooter. Pat Kav is more of a feeder so I agree turning him into a scorer is the move, but even he has shown he’s a 2 dimensional player this year. Ajax won’t make it easy though and I don’t anticipate Pat being the star tomorrow. But if he is, then the tewaaraton may be his with Shelly getting locked down in the final four.

Almost 52% of ND's assists come from Pat (27%) and Chris (24%). Taylor is completely dependent on service from them. The midfield thrives when teams slide to Pat and Chris. So you have to be slow to slide to them, or the ball gets spinning and ends up in the net (probably from a BTB, around the world, or between the legs shot).

If you're going to try to slow down that Irish offense, you don't want the midfield getting a ton of points. In the first game against MD, the Irish first midfield like had something like 6g and 5a. If I'm Jesse Bernhardt, I'm probably okay with making ND score on a bunch of solo dodges. One, it eats up more time. Two, it means there's not "sharing is caring" happening on that offense. Stop the ball movement in favor of dodging.

They pretty much did the same thing to UVA on Saturday. Millon isn't the distributor yet that Chris is now.

[Wheels]

My thought is, how many goals would Maryland have to lose by to not be ranked #2 (which I think is a tremendous accomplishment considering everything)?

This is a trick question. We all know that if MD loses at all, the media will vote ND, Duke, and UVA 1-3, respectively. Maybe the Terps in this scenario finish 4th just ahead of Syracuse.

[azim21]

Ingredients for a Maryland win:

-Wierman has to get over not just to 50%
-McNaney needs to get to 50%
-Gotta be below 15 TOs
-Turn both Kavanaghs into goal scorers and not distributors (they account for more than 50% of ND's assists)

The first 3 are about possessions.

The last is about getting Notre Dame into a rock fight. My guess is Jesse Bernhardt's defensive game plan will attempt to do just that.

Turn Chris Kav into a goal scorer? Yeah I’d love that! Dudes been on a tear during the tourney as a shooter. Pat Kav is more of a feeder so I agree turning him into a scorer is the move, but even he has shown he’s a 2 dimensional player this year. Ajax won’t make it easy though and I don’t anticipate Pat being the star tomorrow. But if he is, then the tewaaraton may be his with Shelly getting locked down in the final four.

Almost 52% of ND's assists come from Pat (27%) and Chris (24%). Taylor is completely dependent on service from them. The midfield thrives when teams slide to Pat and Chris. So you have to be slow to slide to them, or the ball gets spinning and ends up in the net (probably from a BTB, around the world, or between the legs shot).

If you're going to try to slow down that Irish offense, you don't want the midfield getting a ton of points. In the first game against MD, the Irish first midfield like had something like 6g and 5a. If I'm Jesse Bernhardt, I'm probably okay with making ND score on a bunch of solo dodges. One, it eats up more time. Two, it means there's not "sharing is caring" happening on that offense. Stop the ball movement in favor of dodging.

They pretty much did the same thing to UVA on Saturday. Millon isn't the distributor yet that Chris is now.

Well said, it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. I think you’re right, Pat kavs only goal last time was a highlight 1v1 play, so Ajax may win that matchup again especially if he limits his abilities as a feeder. I don’t know what pats O/U on goals is but I’d go under. Ajax is that good. I had not considered how that style of defense is also a good way of clock management. If you play that way, you need McNaney to have a day. Which he’s gonna be playing in his 3rd title game now? so yeah he’s up to that task. I could go on, but I have a feeling this game could be similar to last years OT game @ UMD. There’s just too many great players on both teams. UMD a hot team peaking at the right time, Notre Dame has been elite all year. Could be one of the great championships

[Finster]

I'm quietly picking ND to beat the 3 pt. spread, BUT I'm NOT betting (sorry wgdsr); I don't feel confident at all. Maryland can win (or beat the spread), mostly because MD is playing with house money; their great fortune of house money could easily lead to an upset win if the ball bounces their way for a quarter or three.

The early start actually favors Maryland...underdogs prefer getting going, less time to overthink, more time to play loose; favorites don't like their routine being messed with, they get angry because someone (in this case, god) messed around with their best-laid plans. Point to Maryland.

The overcast/cooler weather helps MD, a team that doesn't substitute much, so they stay fresher than otherwise...ND which plays many bodies, so they'd be fresh no matter the weather. Point to Maryland.

I can't get over the FO issue. If Lynch way outperforms Weirman, I can't see Maryland winning. If Weirman outperforms Lynch, I think ND possibly melts down in all categories (channeling Corrigan's character); Tillman is the kind of coach who feasts on other team's implosions. Point to whoever excels at FOGO.

And yet, ND is simply better all around at most positions. A huge point to ND.

I desperately want to make up my unfortunate $$ loss from the semi's, but I've got no confidence in today's outcome. Hit me with where I'm wrong.

[youthathletics]

Finster Mush....

[Finster]

Finster Mush....

Lacrosse makes me unwell. I don’t even have a horse in the race.

[Matnum PI]

... The early start actually favors Maryland...

Game time moved to noon?

[azim21]

I’m pretty sure most of the rain is coming in the evening, which is why they moved up the game start. I don’t think weather will be a factor at all. Although then again, I see conflicting reports based on where I check. As someone going to the game, I just hope it stays away for the 2 hours during.

Radar this morning shows it’s gonna rain during the second half. Guys were already slipping in the semis, it may be hard for dodgers today. Which probably favors Maryland

[viho]

Football ties
I recall the ND football team showing for a game earlier this year for Faison.

Coach Locks posted this morning that he is on his way. Sure that Trader will be in the house as well ( fortunately for ND , he won’t be on the field).

This is all great for the game!

[Finster]

... The early start actually favors Maryland...

Game time moved to noon?

Yes. Noon start.

[molo]

Hope the rain holds off because when it comes so will come thunder and lightning. Delay could be long. My phone says rain starts at 3.