All Things Russia & Ukraine

[a fan]

Replying to above without reposting.

What weapons systems did the US use in shooting down Iranian missile barrage? Houthis? What is their range?

Frankly, I think NATO should go all-in with providing air cover to Ukraine, refrain themselves from striking targets within Russia unless fired upon directly. Declare an alliance treaty between Ukraine and NATO for the protection of civilians in Ukraine from war crimes being committed by Russia.

We and the rest of NATO have been enormously reluctant to have direct conflict, to avoid 'escalation', but I think it's time to stop this war in its tracks and push Russia out. Make it clear that further attacks in Ukraine are attacks on a NATO ally. Where any lines get drawn if Russia sues for peace is another matter, but enough's enough. Maybe the Russians keep Crimea, maybe not.

....and thus the inevitable mission creep has arrived.

It always does.

The mission should be, and I believe has been, to uphold international law and to deter aggressors thinking that their military power and size alone is sufficient to successfully invade a smaller neighbor and to justify war crime behaviors.

This was an interesting such situation because of the complication of potential nuclear exchange but the mission remains the same.

I just think the realities of having not provided Ukraine with sufficient weaponry when they needed it to prosecute the war successfully on their own has led to needing to step up to take direct defensive action on their behalf, else the entire effort and mission will have been lost. And all sorts of catastrophic ripple effects.

I'd call that operational creep not mission creep.

Nothing in the above means that to have reached a defense treaty with them at least in 2014 forward would not have produced a better outcome with far less bloodshed and treasure. But we deal with current realities, not past 'what ifs'...

The bolded above is Bush's New World Order, chapter and verse.

Boilerplate Republican Neo-Con thinking. Next time Cradle tells you you're not a real Republican...show him this.

I don't agree as to Neo-Con, but it is hearkening back to the notion that the world is safer and more prosperous when nations respect international law and systems of collective cooperation, and aggression is deterred by strong alliances and repercussions for bad actors.

That's not Neo-Con.

Neo-Con is: everything, everywhere is the US's military business. That thinking is why we invaded Iraq. And is why we've armed Ukraine and Taiwan.

The "Alliances" (i.e. Senate-ratified Treatis) part ain't Neo-Con. It's quite simply Constitutional thinking, and baked into that Document.

We've 1000% forgotten that. And why it's in the Constitution: it's to keep our POTUS from acting like a military dictator, and making the waging of war easy and thoughtless.

Wanna defend Kuwait? Great. Strike up a treaty. Vote on it. Guess what? Now Saddam CAN'T invade. Fake problem solved.

[a fan]

The downside of earlier NATO entry will be trumpeted by Salty for you. They didn't belong, didn't 'deserve" NATO protection, until they actually turned westward and began to clean up their government (he will claim they did so too late, thus never deserve support). AND Russia would have claimed it was an act of aggression, proof of the West's desire to overwhelm Russia and its independence...and spark a war in a fragile time, potentially with loose nukes.

Fine. Then don't sign them in, and let them alone.

Are you catching on how simple my MO Is yet? If they're not worth protecting? Great news. I"m on board.

But if they are? We are IDIOTS to not have a defense treaty with them. Full stop.

[old salt]

We'll never get a Treaty with Ukraine or approval for NATO membership.
Biden hasn't even tried to make the case to US voters.

Ukraine still hasn't cleaned up their govt to NATO standards. If different languages determined nationality, the SW US would still be part of Mexico & Quebec would be independent. Half of Ukrainians are ethnically Russian. Their territory was part of Russia until 1992 & even then they were supposed to be a member of the CIS. They have no independent history before that. Who the F are we to adjudicate & enforce their sovereignty by the force of arms ?

The House (R)'s delayed this last tranche of Ukraine military aid by only 65 days. BFD. It just forced Ukraine to conserve their munitions before they run out again, & they will because the west still can't produce enough to meet their consumption. Any previous delays or denials of weapons or munitions are all on Biden. Congressional (R)'s consistently called for more arms & faster than did Biden.

During the decade+ that we enforced the Iraq No fly zones, our planes were fired upon consistently & we had to bomb numerous times.
Russia has arguably the best air defense systems in the world, on par with ours. They'd have to be taken out & we'd suffer losses doing it.
It would be an act of war, not covered by UN sanction, conducted within the laws of armed conflict. The risk of escalation is more than just rhetorical.

[a fan]

We'll never get a Treaty with Ukraine or approval for NATO membership.
Biden hasn't even tried to make the case to US voters.

Neither did Trump. He armed them anyway. The very half-measure you and I are arguing against.

We're on the same page.

I'm not arguing that Ukraine is NATO ready, or treaty ready. I'm simply saying: pick a lane. Don't care which one.

You and I both know we have military wonks telling Biden we are now pot-committed in Ukraine. Mission creep.

Who the F are we to adjudicate & enforce their sovereignty by the force of arms ?

We're not.

Same applies to Taiwan, does it not? Or have you changed your mind there since we first discussed it?

The House (R)'s delayed this last tranche of Ukraine military aid by only 65 days. BFD. It just forced Ukraine to conserve their munitions before they run out again, & they will because the west still can't produce enough to meet their consumption. Any previous delays or denials of weapons or munitions are all on Biden. Congressional (R)'s consistently called for more arms & faster than did Biden.

So....the R"s are worse in their attempt at half measures? You're telling us that if the R's got their way, Ukraine would have run out of arms even FASTER, correct?

During the decade+ that we enforced the Iraq No fly zones, our planes were fired upon consistently & we had to bomb numerous times.
Russia has arguably the best air defense systems in the world, on par with ours. They'd have to be taken out & we'd suffer losses doing it.

Yep. That's why I didn't want our noses in Iraq, and why I don't want it in Ukraine.

It would be an act of war, not covered by UN sanction, conducted within the laws of armed conflict. The risk of escalation is more than just rhetorical.

Yep. Welcome to mission creep. We've reached that part of our entirely predictable story....

[a fan]

If different languages determined nationality, the SW US would still be part of Mexico & Quebec would be independent. Half of Ukrainians are ethnically Russian.

That logic is backwards. You're arguing that Ukraine is a fictional country. It's not. A country starts with geographical and cultural identity: hence their own language in a specific area of Earth.

Quebec is semi-independent with its own provincial government and laws.

[old salt]

Ukraine was semi-independent when part of the USSR & Russia before that.
It's not realistic to Balkanize the whole world. Look at the disputes between other former Soviet Republics.

We give Taiwan a pittance in military aid compared to Ukraine.
Taiwan pays for most of what they get from us.
We're delaying delivery of weapons & munitions, diverting them to Ukraine.

If Congressional (R)'s got their way, Ukraine would have gotten Abrams, Bradleys, ATACMS & F-16's sooner.
Had we not encouraged their summer counter-offensive in the south, they would not be as short on munitions & troops.

[jhu72]

We'll never get a Treaty with Ukraine or approval for NATO membership.
Biden hasn't even tried to make the case to US voters.

Ukraine still hasn't cleaned up their govt to NATO standards. If different languages determined nationality, the SW US would still be part of Mexico & Quebec would be independent. Half of Ukrainians are ethnically Russian. Their territory was part of Russia until 1992 & even then they were supposed to be a member of the CIS. They have no independent history before that. Who the F are we to adjudicate & enforce their sovereignty by the force of arms ?

The House (R)'s delayed this last tranche of Ukraine military aid by only 65 days. BFD. It just forced Ukraine to conserve their munitions before they run out again, & they will because the west still can't produce enough to meet their consumption. Any previous delays or denials of weapons or munitions are all on Biden. Congressional (R)'s consistently called for more arms & faster than did Biden.

During the decade+ that we enforced the Iraq No fly zones, our planes were fired upon consistently & we had to bomb numerous times.
Russia has arguably the best air defense systems in the world, on par with ours. They'd have to be taken out & we'd suffer losses doing it.
It would be an act of war, not covered by UN sanction, conducted within the laws of armed conflict. The risk of escalation is more than just rhetorical.

BULLSH*T!!!

[PizzaSnake]

Ukraine had 3 decades to build a military capable of defending their borders or to maintain a modus vivendi with Russia.
They failed. Ukraine was the crown jewel of the USSR. They could have been another Germany or Poland if they were not so corrupt & ethnically divided. They're an accidental country with no national history. Kissinger wanted to make them another Finland-llke buffer state. The NeoCons want them in NATO. The EUroburghers want another US defended emerging market.

Ukraine has their own language. Pretty hard to argue that a place with its own language and culture isn't a real country, OS.

America and the EU half-ass*d it. You just stated that yourself.

1. don't take Ukraine's nukes away, or
2. don't get involved at all with Ukraine, or
3. strike up a defense treaty between US and Ukraine, or
4. pull them into NATO

We chose none of these. Because we're idiots. And now, we're at Mission Creep stage, as you pointed out. We'll never learn that this "a little bit pregnant" model doesn't work...

I dunno if we're 'idiots', but we do have the burden of democratic rule which means that we typically have decision makers who face short term election repercussions if they take an action that backfires within their tenure. So, decisions often get kicked down the road, papered over, swept under the rug, until they come back to bite a future set of decision makers.

Each of the options above had sound arguments pro and con. No easy answers as there was a downside risk for each possibility.

It's worth pointing our errors in judgment, 'what if' we'd done something differently, but we really don't know what the repercussions would actually have been if we'd made the opposite decisions. We have guesses, but we don't know.

The counterfactual is always a tough position to argue.

[MDlaxfan76]

We'll never get a Treaty with Ukraine or approval for NATO membership.
Biden hasn't even tried to make the case to US voters.

Ukraine still hasn't cleaned up their govt to NATO standards. If different languages determined nationality, the SW US would still be part of Mexico & Quebec would be independent. Half of Ukrainians are ethnically Russian. Their territory was part of Russia until 1992 & even then they were supposed to be a member of the CIS. They have no independent history before that. Who the F are we to adjudicate & enforce their sovereignty by the force of arms ?

The House (R)'s delayed this last tranche of Ukraine military aid by only 65 days. BFD. It just forced Ukraine to conserve their munitions before they run out again, & they will because the west still can't produce enough to meet their consumption. Any previous delays or denials of weapons or munitions are all on Biden. Congressional (R)'s consistently called for more arms & faster than did Biden.

During the decade+ that we enforced the Iraq No fly zones, our planes were fired upon consistently & we had to bomb numerous times.
Russia has arguably the best air defense systems in the world, on par with ours. They'd have to be taken out & we'd suffer losses doing it.
It would be an act of war, not covered by UN sanction, conducted within the laws of armed conflict. The risk of escalation is more than just rhetorical.

BULLSH*T!!!

Russian propaganda.

[Typical Lax Dad]

“Russian History” classes must have been deficient.

[old salt]

Of course, Ukraine has a glorious history as an independent nation.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.britannica.com/place/Kyiv/History

>> Ukraine, or parts of what is now Ukraine, have been controlled by Russia, Mongols, Ottomans and Hapsburg empires in the past. Of these, control by Russians lasted the shortest period of time, while the Mongols controlled Ukraine for almost 300 years.

Ukraine has existed as a concept for several hundred years, but only came together in the 1920’s as part of the USSR. It became an independent country in 1991. So it was never part of modern Russia, only controlled in part by tsarist Russians. <<

[old salt]

Yes/ Ukraine is a glorious concept, as was the Kievan Rus.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Those are Mongolians. Not Russians.

[old salt]

Kyivan Rus existed for over 3 centuries before invasion by the Mongolians.

[a fan]

Kyivan Rus existed for over 3 centuries before invasion by the Mongolians.

....and Alaska isn't really part of America using that logic. Let Putin have it.

And then there's China's Taiwan.

You're just spooling us up. And that's fine.

[old salt]

If you were a man of military age & you had to choose (today), would you choose to be a citizen of Belarus or Ukraine ?

[a fan]

If you were a man of military age & you had to choose (today), would you choose to be a citizen of Belarus or Ukraine ?

We've gone over this before: if Russia invaded America, would you be willing to give Putin a few States in exchange for a cease fire?

[MDlaxfan76]

If you were a man of military age & you had to choose (today), would you choose to be a citizen of Belarus or Ukraine ?

If I was Ukrainian, yes Ukraine.
And would be proud of it.

Not Belarus, though if I was actually Belarussian, of course that would be my citizenship.
I just wouldn't like the leadership and would either work to change it, or leave.

[MDlaxfan76]

If you were a man of military age & you had to choose (today), would you choose to be a citizen of Belarus or Ukraine ?

We've gone over this before: if Russia invaded America, would you be willing to give Putin a few States in exchange for a cease fire?

Say, Alaska?
Should we cede the Arctic to Russia?
Then parts of Alaska?
Then all of Alaska?

Little green men...?