All Things Russia & Ukraine

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old salt
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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Here we go...

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/21/worl ... rview.html

‘What’s the Problem?’ Zelensky Challenges West Over Hesitations.

“Shoot down what’s in the sky over Ukraine,” he said in a wide-ranging interview with The New York Times. “And give us the weapons to use against Russian forces on the borders.”


By Andrew E. Kramer, Reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine
Published May 21, 2024 Updated May 22, 2024

With his army struggling to fend off fierce Russian advances all across the front, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine urged the United States and Europe to do more to defend his nation, dismissing fears of nuclear escalation and proposing that NATO planes shoot down Russian missiles in Ukrainian airspace.

Mr. Zelensky said he had also appealed to senior U.S. officials to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles and other weaponry at military targets inside Russia — a tactic the United States continues to oppose. The inability to do so, he insisted, gave Russia a “huge advantage” in cross-border warfare that it is exploiting with assaults in Ukraine’s northeast.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said that he needed “weapons and permission” to better defend his country.
His comments, made in an interview on Monday with The New York Times in central Kyiv, were among his most full-throated appeals yet to the United States and its NATO allies for more help. Over 50 minutes at the ornate House With Chimeras in the presidential offices, he spoke with a mix of frustration and bewilderment at the West’s reluctance to take bolder steps to ensure that Ukraine prevails.

Mr. Zelensky has long lobbied the West, for more weapons in particular. But his pleas this week come at a critical time for Ukraine’s war effort, with its army in retreat and a new package of American arms yet to arrive in sufficient quantities. Not since the early days of the war has Ukraine faced as grave a military challenge, analysts say.

It’s also a pivotal time in Ukrainian politics. Mr. Zelensky spoke on the last day of his five-year presidential term. Elections scheduled for March were suspended because of the war, and he will remain president under martial law powers, with his tenure potentially stretching as long as the war.

In the wide-ranging interview, Mr. Zelensky, 46, discussed the wrenching sadness of visiting mass graves and consoling the families of dead soldiers, but also his own personal journey, and the “recharge” he gets from the little time he has to spend with his children. He said he would like to read more but falls asleep too quickly at night to get far.

He was most animated as he ticked off a checklist of actions he believed his allies should take to support Ukraine. He argued that NATO should shoot down Russian missiles in flight over Ukraine — without planes crossing into Ukrainian airspace — saying that would be a purely defensive tactic and pose no risk of direct combat with Russian forces.

“So my question is, what’s the problem? Why can’t we shoot them down? Is it defense? Yes. Is it an attack on Russia? No. Are you shooting down Russian planes and killing Russian pilots? No. So what’s the issue with involving NATO countries in the war? There is no such issue.”

“Shoot down what’s in the sky over Ukraine,” he added. “And give us the weapons to use against Russian forces on the borders.”

That kind of direct NATO involvement, which analysts say could provoke Russia to retaliate, has been resisted in Western capitals. But Mr. Zelensky drew a comparison to how the United States and Britain helped Israel shoot down a barrage of drones and missiles from Iran last month.

“This is what we saw in Israel,” Mr. Zelensky said. “Not even on such a large scale.” The White House response to the comparison then was, “Different conflicts, different airspace, different threat picture.”

Mr. Zelensky also urged the alliance to come through with more F-16 fighter jets as well as Patriot air defense systems.

“Can we get seven?” he said, saying Ukraine needed more Patriot systems but would settle for that number to protect regions key to the nation’s economy and energy sector. He suggested a decision might be reached when NATO leaders gathered for a summit in Washington in July.

“Do you think it is too much for the NATO anniversary summit in Washington?” he asked. “For a country that is fighting for freedom and democracy around the world today?”

Asked about potential cease-fire negotiations, he called for diplomacy that avoids direct talks with Russia but rallies nations behind Ukraine’s positions for an eventual peace settlement. It would begin with plans to secure Ukrainian food exports to developing nations, prisoner exchanges, measures to secure a Russian-occupied nuclear power station in Ukraine’s south and returning Ukrainian children whom he said were abducted and taken to Russia.

He said he hoped dozens of nations would get behind such an initiative when they gathered at a “peace summit” in mid-June in Switzerland. And he pressed again for a plan for Ukraine to join NATO.

He also welcomed recent suggestions by some allies that NATO send troops to train or support Ukrainian forces in Ukraine, though he added, “I don’t see it, except in words.”

More immediately, he said the ability to use Western-provided weapons to strike at military targets inside Russia was essential for Ukraine’s success.

Only by using these weapons to destroy logistical hubs in Russia and Russian planes in Russian territory, he said, could Ukraine effectively defend itself from the recent assault in the northeast which threatens Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

“How do we respond when they strike our cities?” he said, noting that Ukraine could see Russian forces massing across the border before they attacked but was powerless to strike them.

“They proceed calmly,” he added, “understanding that our partners do not give us permission” to use their weapons to retaliate.

The West’s primary reason for hesitating — fear of nuclear escalation — was overblown, Mr. Zelensky said, because President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia would refrain from using nuclear weapons out of a sense of self-preservation.

“He may be irrational, but he loves his own life,” Mr. Zelensky said.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine suggested that Western allies were hesitant to take bolder steps to aid his country in part because they wanted to maintain trade and diplomatic ties with Russia.
He also suggested that there was another reason for the West’s hesitation: Some countries were seeking to retain trade and diplomatic ties with Russia. “Everyone keeps the door slightly ajar,” he said.

It’s been a tumultuous run for Mr. Zelensky. He was elected in 2019 on a platform of negotiating peace with Russia, which his critics said was naïve. He also pledged to crack down on corruption and promised to serve only one five-year term.

A television personality before becoming president, Mr. Zelensky alternates between diplomacy to drum up support for Ukraine and exhortations to his soldiers and civilians in the face of deteriorating military prospects. He said he has little time to see his son and daughter, 11 and 19, but called spending time with them his “happiest moments.”

He reflected for a moment when asked what he would do after the war, and appeared to contemplate the prospect that Russia would prevail. “After the war, after the victory, these are different things,” he said. “It could be different. I think my plans depend on that.

“So, I would like to believe that there will be a victory for Ukraine. Not an easy one, very difficult. It is absolutely clear that it will be very difficult...”

Mr. Zelensky passed a critical point in his presidency early in the war with the failure of Russia’s attempted decapitating attack on the Ukrainian leadership in Kyiv, which he has said included a plan to capture or assassinate him.

Now, nearly 27 months later, it’s unclear how or when his presidency will end. Ukraine’s martial law, which is periodically renewed with votes in Parliament, rules out holding presidential elections. Though his party, Servant of the People, holds a majority of seats, party discipline has reportedly unraveled in recent months, and Mr. Zelensky has struggled to push through bills.

After the shock of the initial invasion, 90 percent of Ukrainians said they trusted Mr. Zelensky; that figure had fallen to 60 percent by February, according to polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

Competitive national elections have been a success of Ukraine’s politics since independence in 1991, fulfilling the promise of a democratic transition that fell flat in Russia, Belarus and some countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus.

International experts on elections have supported Ukraine’s decision to suspend voting during the war, given that millions of Ukrainians would be unable to vote in areas under occupation, as refugees in Europe or while serving as soldiers at the front.

Asked to assess the health of Ukraine’s democracy, he said, “Ukraine doesn’t need to prove anything about democracy to anyone.”

“Because Ukraine and its people are proving it through their war,” he went on. “Without words, without unnecessary rhetoric, without just rhetorical messages floating in the air. They prove it with their lives.”

Andrew E. Kramer is the Kyiv bureau chief for The Times, who has been covering the war in Ukraine since 2014.
Can't do it without entering Ukraine's airspace. Air-to-air weapons don't have sufficient range for what Z is proposing.

I agree with letting Ukraine use our donated weapons (like ATACMS & F-16 launched cruise missiles) to strike military targets inside Russia which pose a proximate threat.

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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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Replying to above without reposting.

What weapons systems did the US use in shooting down Iranian missile barrage? Houthis? What is their range?

Frankly, I think NATO should go all-in with providing air cover to Ukraine, refrain themselves from striking targets within Russia unless fired upon directly. Declare an alliance treaty between Ukraine and NATO for the protection of civilians in Ukraine from war crimes being committed by Russia.

We and the rest of NATO have been enormously reluctant to have direct conflict, to avoid 'escalation', but I think it's time to stop this war in its tracks and push Russia out. Make it clear that further attacks in Ukraine are attacks on a NATO ally. Where any lines get drawn if Russia sues for peace is another matter, but enough's enough. Maybe the Russians keep Crimea, maybe not.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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Zelensky is, in effect, asking for a no fly zone over Ukraine. To intercept Russian missiles & drones, NATO aircraft would have to operate within Ukrainian airspace, at risk from Russian integrated air defense systems, including the S-300 & S-400 systems. Russia is also attacking with long range precision glide bombs launched by aircraft operating within Russian airspace. Air-to-air missile ranges are classified, but they are insufficient to cover all of Ukraine from outside Ukraine's airspace. Ukraine is not a NATO ally. Declaring & enforcing a no fly zone is an act of war.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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Act of war? No, no. It would only be a special defense operation. Not a war at all.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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old salt wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 11:30 am Zelensky is, in effect, asking for a no fly zone over Ukraine. To intercept Russian missiles & drones, NATO aircraft would have to operate within Ukrainian airspace, at risk from Russian integrated air defense systems, including the S-300 & S-400 systems. Russia is also attacking with long range precision glide bombs launched by aircraft operating within Russian airspace. Air-to-air missile ranges are classified, but they are insufficient to cover all of Ukraine from outside Ukraine's airspace. Ukraine is not a NATO ally. Declaring & enforcing a no fly zone is an act of war.

Aiding a sovereign nation whose security we assured from aerial bombardment from the orher co-surety by downing missiles, drones, planes from the sovereign nations airspace is an act of war?

By what logic? Is the co-surety assumed to have a right to wage war as part of an unofficial “special operation.”

If so, fcuk it, there are no rules, might makes right, and devil take the hindmost. You really want to live in that world?

In a way, stopping the prevarication, moral posturing and pearl clutching offers a bit of clear, unvarnished reality.
"There is nothing more difficult and more dangerous to carry through than initiating changes. One makes enemies of those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support from those who would prosper under the new."
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 11:21 am Replying to above without reposting.

What weapons systems did the US use in shooting down Iranian missile barrage? Houthis? What is their range?

Frankly, I think NATO should go all-in with providing air cover to Ukraine, refrain themselves from striking targets within Russia unless fired upon directly. Declare an alliance treaty between Ukraine and NATO for the protection of civilians in Ukraine from war crimes being committed by Russia.

We and the rest of NATO have been enormously reluctant to have direct conflict, to avoid 'escalation', but I think it's time to stop this war in its tracks and push Russia out. Make it clear that further attacks in Ukraine are attacks on a NATO ally. Where any lines get drawn if Russia sues for peace is another matter, but enough's enough. Maybe the Russians keep Crimea, maybe not.
....and thus the inevitable mission creep has arrived.

It always does.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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a fan wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 12:50 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 11:21 am Replying to above without reposting.

What weapons systems did the US use in shooting down Iranian missile barrage? Houthis? What is their range?

Frankly, I think NATO should go all-in with providing air cover to Ukraine, refrain themselves from striking targets within Russia unless fired upon directly. Declare an alliance treaty between Ukraine and NATO for the protection of civilians in Ukraine from war crimes being committed by Russia.

We and the rest of NATO have been enormously reluctant to have direct conflict, to avoid 'escalation', but I think it's time to stop this war in its tracks and push Russia out. Make it clear that further attacks in Ukraine are attacks on a NATO ally. Where any lines get drawn if Russia sues for peace is another matter, but enough's enough. Maybe the Russians keep Crimea, maybe not.
....and thus the inevitable mission creep has arrived.

It always does.
The mission should be, and I believe has been, to uphold international law and to deter aggressors thinking that their military power and size alone is sufficient to successfully invade a smaller neighbor and to justify war crime behaviors.

This was an interesting such situation because of the complication of potential nuclear exchange but the mission remains the same.

I just think the realities of having not provided Ukraine with sufficient weaponry when they needed it to prosecute the war successfully on their own has led to needing to step up to take direct defensive action on their behalf, else the entire effort and mission will have been lost. And all sorts of catastrophic ripple effects.

I'd call that operational creep not mission creep.

Nothing in the above means that to have reached a defense treaty with them at least in 2014 forward would not have produced a better outcome with far less bloodshed and treasure. But we deal with current realities, not past 'what ifs'...
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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old salt wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 11:30 am Zelensky is, in effect, asking for a no fly zone over Ukraine. To intercept Russian missiles & drones, NATO aircraft would have to operate within Ukrainian airspace, at risk from Russian integrated air defense systems, including the S-300 & S-400 systems. Russia is also attacking with long range precision glide bombs launched by aircraft operating within Russian airspace. Air-to-air missile ranges are classified, but they are insufficient to cover all of Ukraine from outside Ukraine's airspace. Ukraine is not a NATO ally. Declaring & enforcing a no fly zone is an act of war.
Russia has multiple times taken the position that NATO's actions have already constituted acts of war. These are matters of degree.

Declaring a no-fly zone is not a aggressor act of war, it's a defense treaty. Ukraine and NATO would enter into a treaty, a defense pact. If Russia flys over, sends missiles, it's not an act of war for Ukraine and its allies to defend themselves and each other.

But the reality will be that NATO and Ukraine would indeed be allies and an act of war against one becomes an act of war against all. And war is rough when the other side has just as much military power or much more than you do. I think Putin looks fast for an off-ramp.

The alternative may be Ukraine's collapse, the loss of millions of lives in a genocide we haven't seen in a long time, mass migration, and the emboldenment of aggressors around the world faced with a feckless West.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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All we have done is to postpone the inevitable. We can't be half in & expect to succeed.
Russia is fully mobilized. Ukraine is not. The US has no coherent strategy. The EU just wants someone else to pay.
All we have done is lead Ukrainians to the slaughter. ...at least those men 27 & older who stuck around to fight.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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old salt wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:03 pm All we have done is to postpone the inevitable. We can't be half in & expect to succeed.
Russia is fully mobilized. Ukraine is not. The US has no coherent strategy. The EU just wants someone else to pay.
All we have done is lead Ukrainians to the slaughter. ...at least those men 27 & older who stuck around to fight.
So return the relinquished nukes as we have not honored our agreement.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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old salt wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:03 pm All we have done is to postpone the inevitable. We can't be half in & expect to succeed.
Russia is fully mobilized. Ukraine is not. The US has no coherent strategy. The EU just wants someone else to pay.
All we have done is lead Ukrainians to the slaughter. ...at least those men 27 & older who stuck around to fight.
Said that about half-in from the word go, if you'll recall. "Cept I called it "a little bit pregnant".

And we're doing the same thing with Taiwan, although Congress and Biden were smart enough to made Taiwan irrelevant with each passing week with the CHips act.......

The mission creep that ALWAYS happens is on deck, OS. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss........
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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Ukraine had 3 decades to build a military capable of defending their borders or to maintain a modus vivendi with Russia.
They failed. Ukraine was the crown jewel of the USSR. They could have been another Germany or Poland if they were not so corrupt & ethnically divided. They're an accidental country with no national history. Kissinger wanted to make them another Finland-llke buffer state. The NeoCons want them in NATO. The EUroburghers want another US defended emerging market.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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old salt wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:03 pm All we have done is to postpone the inevitable. We can't be half in & expect to succeed.
Russia is fully mobilized. Ukraine is not. The US has no coherent strategy. The EU just wants someone else to pay.
All we have done is lead Ukrainians to the slaughter. ...at least those men 27 & older who stuck around to fight.
I think what I've suggested is closer to all-in than half-in, which I'd agree is what we've been doing...but not even half-in as we just starved Ukraine of weaponry for many months while Russia gathered forces and morale.

Let's be clear, that was MAGA doing that starving at the direction of Trump.

Another wing of the GOP that hearkens to Reagan and HW has criticized the Admin for not being robust enough in support, with more weaponry and more advanced weaponry faster. They eventually made common cause with moderate Dems, overcoming the MAGA/Putin wing, but the delay had enormous tactical cost.

Countervailing has been the ongoing reluctance for direct confrontation with a nuclear superpower. With Europeans most exposed to 'tactical nuke' fallout. Difficult to balance.

But I think the option of letting Ukraine fall is catastrophic.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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old salt wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:33 pm Ukraine had 3 decades to build a military capable of defending their borders or to maintain a modus vivendi with Russia.
They failed. Ukraine was the crown jewel of the USSR. They could have been another Germany or Poland if they were not so corrupt & ethnically divided. They're an accidental country with no national history. Kissinger wanted to make them another Finland-llke buffer state. The NeoCons want them in NATO. The EUroburghers want another US defended emerging market.
Ukraine had two decades of corrupt, Russian dominated rule, yes.

But they eventually turned westward to democracy, the rule of law and prosperity, as Russia SHOULD have done themselves, and Putin went nuts.
Last edited by MDlaxfan76 on Thu May 23, 2024 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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old salt wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:33 pm Ukraine had 3 decades to build a military capable of defending their borders or to maintain a modus vivendi with Russia.
They failed. Ukraine was the crown jewel of the USSR. They could have been another Germany or Poland if they were not so corrupt & ethnically divided. They're an accidental country with no national history. Kissinger wanted to make them another Finland-llke buffer state. The NeoCons want them in NATO. The EUroburghers want another US defended emerging market.
Ukraine has their own language. Pretty hard to argue that a place with its own language and culture isn't a real country, OS.

America and the EU half-ass*d it. You just stated that yourself.

1. don't take Ukraine's nukes away, or
2. don't get involved at all with Ukraine, or
3. strike up a defense treaty between US and Ukraine, or
4. pull them into NATO

We chose none of these. Because we're idiots. And now, we're at Mission Creep stage, as you pointed out. We'll never learn that this "a little bit pregnant" model doesn't work...
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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a fan wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:41 pm
old salt wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:33 pm Ukraine had 3 decades to build a military capable of defending their borders or to maintain a modus vivendi with Russia.
They failed. Ukraine was the crown jewel of the USSR. They could have been another Germany or Poland if they were not so corrupt & ethnically divided. They're an accidental country with no national history. Kissinger wanted to make them another Finland-llke buffer state. The NeoCons want them in NATO. The EUroburghers want another US defended emerging market.
Ukraine has their own language. Pretty hard to argue that a place with its own language and culture isn't a real country, OS.

America and the EU half-ass*d it. You just stated that yourself.

1. don't take Ukraine's nukes away, or
2. don't get involved at all with Ukraine, or
3. strike up a defense treaty between US and Ukraine, or
4. pull them into NATO

We chose none of these. Because we're idiots. And now, we're at Mission Creep stage, as you pointed out. We'll never learn that this "a little bit pregnant" model doesn't work...
I dunno if we're 'idiots', but we do have the burden of democratic rule which means that we typically have decision makers who face short term election repercussions if they take an action that backfires within their tenure. So, decisions often get kicked down the road, papered over, swept under the rug, until they come back to bite a future set of decision makers.

Each of the options above had sound arguments pro and con. No easy answers as there was a downside risk for each possibility.

It's worth pointing our errors in judgment, 'what if' we'd done something differently, but we really don't know what the repercussions would actually have been if we'd made the opposite decisions. We have guesses, but we don't know.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 2:40 pm
a fan wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 12:50 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 11:21 am Replying to above without reposting.

What weapons systems did the US use in shooting down Iranian missile barrage? Houthis? What is their range?

Frankly, I think NATO should go all-in with providing air cover to Ukraine, refrain themselves from striking targets within Russia unless fired upon directly. Declare an alliance treaty between Ukraine and NATO for the protection of civilians in Ukraine from war crimes being committed by Russia.

We and the rest of NATO have been enormously reluctant to have direct conflict, to avoid 'escalation', but I think it's time to stop this war in its tracks and push Russia out. Make it clear that further attacks in Ukraine are attacks on a NATO ally. Where any lines get drawn if Russia sues for peace is another matter, but enough's enough. Maybe the Russians keep Crimea, maybe not.
....and thus the inevitable mission creep has arrived.

It always does.
The mission should be, and I believe has been, to uphold international law and to deter aggressors thinking that their military power and size alone is sufficient to successfully invade a smaller neighbor and to justify war crime behaviors.

This was an interesting such situation because of the complication of potential nuclear exchange but the mission remains the same.

I just think the realities of having not provided Ukraine with sufficient weaponry when they needed it to prosecute the war successfully on their own has led to needing to step up to take direct defensive action on their behalf, else the entire effort and mission will have been lost. And all sorts of catastrophic ripple effects.

I'd call that operational creep not mission creep.

Nothing in the above means that to have reached a defense treaty with them at least in 2014 forward would not have produced a better outcome with far less bloodshed and treasure. But we deal with current realities, not past 'what ifs'...
The bolded above is Bush's New World Order, chapter and verse.

Boilerplate Republican Neo-Con thinking. Next time Cradle tells you you're not a real Republican...show him this. ;)
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:48 pm
a fan wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:41 pm
old salt wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:33 pm Ukraine had 3 decades to build a military capable of defending their borders or to maintain a modus vivendi with Russia.
They failed. Ukraine was the crown jewel of the USSR. They could have been another Germany or Poland if they were not so corrupt & ethnically divided. They're an accidental country with no national history. Kissinger wanted to make them another Finland-llke buffer state. The NeoCons want them in NATO. The EUroburghers want another US defended emerging market.
Ukraine has their own language. Pretty hard to argue that a place with its own language and culture isn't a real country, OS.

America and the EU half-ass*d it. You just stated that yourself.

1. don't take Ukraine's nukes away, or
2. don't get involved at all with Ukraine, or
3. strike up a defense treaty between US and Ukraine, or
4. pull them into NATO

We chose none of these. Because we're idiots. And now, we're at Mission Creep stage, as you pointed out. We'll never learn that this "a little bit pregnant" model doesn't work...
I dunno if we're 'idiots', but we do have the burden of democratic rule which means that we typically have decision makers who face short term election repercussions if they take an action that backfires within their tenure. So, decisions often get kicked down the road, papered over, swept under the rug, until they come back to bite a future set of decision makers.

Each of the options above had sound arguments pro and con. No easy answers as there was a downside risk for each possibility.

It's worth pointing our errors in judgment, 'what if' we'd done something differently, but we really don't know what the repercussions would actually have been if we'd made the opposite decisions. We have guesses, but we don't know.
We have guesses? We've done this over and over and over, MDlax.

Have you noticed that choice #4 has worked, and worked flawlessly since 1950? I've certainly noticed.

Mucking around militarily (arming factions and leaders, etc.) in countries that we don't have treaties with has ALWAYS had at least some, if not all, negative consequences. Every time.

So telling me "it's too late to think now" rings very, very hollow for this American.

Want to make my thinking current? We're doing the same stupid half-asssery in Taiwan. We've learned NOTHING from past actions.

Altough I will say I am THRILLED that Biden and Congress decided to outthink our opponent for a change, and are making Taiwan more and more irrelevant with each passing month with the CHips act. Now THAT is smart. No arms. No casualties. Using our brains coupled with American GDP for a freaking change. Frankly, I'm STUNNED someone in leadership as smart enough to do that.

But we're still arming Taiwan.....that part is still stupid.
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

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a fan wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:51 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 2:40 pm
a fan wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 12:50 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 11:21 am Replying to above without reposting.

What weapons systems did the US use in shooting down Iranian missile barrage? Houthis? What is their range?

Frankly, I think NATO should go all-in with providing air cover to Ukraine, refrain themselves from striking targets within Russia unless fired upon directly. Declare an alliance treaty between Ukraine and NATO for the protection of civilians in Ukraine from war crimes being committed by Russia.

We and the rest of NATO have been enormously reluctant to have direct conflict, to avoid 'escalation', but I think it's time to stop this war in its tracks and push Russia out. Make it clear that further attacks in Ukraine are attacks on a NATO ally. Where any lines get drawn if Russia sues for peace is another matter, but enough's enough. Maybe the Russians keep Crimea, maybe not.
....and thus the inevitable mission creep has arrived.

It always does.
The mission should be, and I believe has been, to uphold international law and to deter aggressors thinking that their military power and size alone is sufficient to successfully invade a smaller neighbor and to justify war crime behaviors.

This was an interesting such situation because of the complication of potential nuclear exchange but the mission remains the same.

I just think the realities of having not provided Ukraine with sufficient weaponry when they needed it to prosecute the war successfully on their own has led to needing to step up to take direct defensive action on their behalf, else the entire effort and mission will have been lost. And all sorts of catastrophic ripple effects.

I'd call that operational creep not mission creep.

Nothing in the above means that to have reached a defense treaty with them at least in 2014 forward would not have produced a better outcome with far less bloodshed and treasure. But we deal with current realities, not past 'what ifs'...
The bolded above is Bush's New World Order, chapter and verse.

Boilerplate Republican Neo-Con thinking. Next time Cradle tells you you're not a real Republican...show him this. ;)
:D
I don't agree as to Neo-Con, but it is hearkening back to the notion that the world is safer and more prosperous when nations respect international law and systems of collective cooperation, and aggression is deterred by strong alliances and repercussions for bad actors.
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MDlaxfan76
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Re: All Things Russia & Ukraine

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

a fan wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:57 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:48 pm
a fan wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:41 pm
old salt wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:33 pm Ukraine had 3 decades to build a military capable of defending their borders or to maintain a modus vivendi with Russia.
They failed. Ukraine was the crown jewel of the USSR. They could have been another Germany or Poland if they were not so corrupt & ethnically divided. They're an accidental country with no national history. Kissinger wanted to make them another Finland-llke buffer state. The NeoCons want them in NATO. The EUroburghers want another US defended emerging market.
Ukraine has their own language. Pretty hard to argue that a place with its own language and culture isn't a real country, OS.

America and the EU half-ass*d it. You just stated that yourself.

1. don't take Ukraine's nukes away, or
2. don't get involved at all with Ukraine, or
3. strike up a defense treaty between US and Ukraine, or
4. pull them into NATO

We chose none of these. Because we're idiots. And now, we're at Mission Creep stage, as you pointed out. We'll never learn that this "a little bit pregnant" model doesn't work...
I dunno if we're 'idiots', but we do have the burden of democratic rule which means that we typically have decision makers who face short term election repercussions if they take an action that backfires within their tenure. So, decisions often get kicked down the road, papered over, swept under the rug, until they come back to bite a future set of decision makers.

Each of the options above had sound arguments pro and con. No easy answers as there was a downside risk for each possibility.

It's worth pointing our errors in judgment, 'what if' we'd done something differently, but we really don't know what the repercussions would actually have been if we'd made the opposite decisions. We have guesses, but we don't know.
We have guesses? We've done this over and over and over, MDlax.

Have you noticed that choice #4 has worked, and worked flawlessly since 1950? I've certainly noticed.

Mucking around militarily (arming factions and leaders, etc.) in countries that we don't have treaties with has ALWAYS had at least some, if not all, negative consequences. Every time.

So telling me "it's too late to think now" rings very, very hollow for this American.

Want to make my thinking current? We're doing the same stupid half-asssery in Taiwan. We've learned NOTHING from past actions.

Altough I will say I am THRILLED that Biden and Congress decided to outthink our opponent for a change, and are making Taiwan more and more irrelevant with each passing month with the CHips act. Now THAT is smart. No arms. No casualties. Using our brains coupled with American GDP for a freaking change. Frankly, I'm STUNNED someone in leadership as smart enough to do that.

But we're still arming Taiwan.....that part is still stupid.
The downside of earlier NATO entry will be trumpeted by Salty for you. They didn't belong, didn't 'deserve" NATO protection, until they actually turned westward and began to clean up their government (he will claim they did so too late, thus never deserve support). AND Russia would have claimed it was an act of aggression, proof of the West's desire to overwhelm Russia and its independence...and spark a war in a fragile time, potentially with loose nukes.
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