ISL

[Baltimore2Boston]

Predictions for tomorrow?

Bel hill in a really close one over Thayer 11-10
Nobles upsets sebs 13-11 if Grosso can win the face off battle
Milton over RL 9-7.
Middlesex over govs 12-9.

Anyone else have thoughts ??

[Laxxal22]

You know that I fully respect your contributions to the ISL, but I just can't get on board with your three-tiered playoff system. As you point out, the two most interesting match-ups tomorrow feature the #2/#7 and the #1/#8 seeds. If we reduce the top bracket to six teams to reward regular season success, we wouldn't get to enjoy those games. Like most things in life, there is no perfect answer that pleases everyone. Home field advantage is still a strong incentive to work hard in the regular season.

All opinions are appreciated. Technically under what I proposed BH/Thayer & Nobles/Seb's games would still be played today they just wouldn't be elimination games.

My goal is simply to add some oomph to the consolation tournament (which feels like the trophy no one wants to hold at the moment), bring some oomph back to regular season results (which don't matter much anymore), and overall I feel that most years three tiers is more representative than two tiers of how the 16-team league plays out.

That being said, I'll certainly celebrate a Nobles or Thayer title run this spring. Under a 6-team playoff system it would've been tough to turn away a 7-4 Nobles squad, though I'd propose that after head-to-head results the second tiebreaker for a multi-team tiebreak should be something like the overall winning % of teams you beat in ISL play instead of record against common opponents. I feel that gives a greater sense of the strength of schedule you faced. Under that criteria Nobles would've been the 5 seed this spring, RL 6, and MX 7.

[Laxxal22]

Predictions for tomorrow?

Bel hill in a really close one over Thayer 11-10
Nobles upsets sebs 13-11 if Grosso can win the face off battle
Milton over RL 9-7.
Middlesex over govs 12-9.

Anyone else have thoughts ??

Good stuff.

BH by either +5 or it's way too close for comfort.
Grosso won 70-75% on Saturday and Seb's D still held them off. Tough to do twice though if possession remains so lopsided.
It feels like Milton have a bit of a team of destiny vibe to them this season.
Same with MX with strong seniors and a well-liked HC in his final season.

[OFOSHO]

Predictions for tomorrow?

Bel hill in a really close one over Thayer 11-10
Nobles upsets sebs 13-11 if Grosso can win the face off battle
Milton over RL 9-7.
Middlesex over govs 12-9.

Anyone else have thoughts ??

I like that you include scores...approx 25% of the 88 league games by the top 8 teams came down to 1- or 2-goal differences. I don't see anyone in the first round running away with a game.

To Laxxal's point, maybe have 10 teams with 2 play-in games? Adding Rivers and Tabor, who had so many close games against the top 8 would have been fun!

[Laxxal22]

To Laxxal's point, maybe have 10 teams with 2 play-in games? Adding Rivers and Tabor, who had so many close games against the top 8 would have been fun!

I always love an additive solution! Monday play-in games of 7 v. 10 and 8 v. 9 would be a lot of fun and I like that this option allows teams who perhaps underachieved a bit in the regular season to still have a shot but with the extra hurdle of having to win four tough games in seven days while the top six teams need three in five.

And yes, kudos for Baltimore2Boston for including score predictions. The games just all look to close to me and my gut feelings keep changing. Maybe next round.

Championship bracket streams:
Thayer @ BH - 4:00: https://www.fan.hudl.com/usa/ma/belmont ... igh-school
Nobles @ St. Seb's - 4:00: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1E1jEZI-Q4
RL @ Milton - 4:00: https://www.milton.edu/livestream/
MX @ Govs - 5:30: My best guess is here but will update if I see differently - https://www.youtube.com/@govsvarsitylac ... 08/streams

Good luck to everyone.

[porkchop]

NELJ comes full circle with its headline naming Sebs goalie stopping Nobles 3peat after his brother helped the first 2. Nobles first ever ISL tourney lost. Watch out for them next year. Return a lot. Congrats to BH on first ever tourney win. Didn’t see the games other than last 10 minutes of Govs. Color appreciated.

[Laxxal22]

I caught most of Nobles-Seb's. A bunch of Seb's seniors had "I don't want this to be my last game" performances. Merageas was something like 5g, 2a, Quinn had a hat trick, and Walsh had two and at least one helper. Faceoffs were more even than on Saturday. Seb's ran their #2 faceoff guy (Amorsino) quite a bit and he did well against Grosso, which I think took some pressure off of Hahm's second half face offs for the Arrows. Nobles hit a handful of pipes in the first half, and had some careless throwaways in the third - a few of those plays go differently and maybe it's a different game, but it basically felt over by the start of the fourth. Seb's committed a bunch of penalties in the fourth quarter, but Nobles couldn't capitalize at a high enough rate. Having watched the Dawgs last two games, I agree they'll be tough next year. A lot of sophs and juniors were in big roles.

Seb's and MX must both be so excited to play someone new. RL will be a tough out for BH.

[Baltimore2Boston]

Predictions for tomorrow?

Bel hill in a really close one over Thayer 11-10
Nobles upsets sebs 13-11 if Grosso can win the face off battle
Milton over RL 9-7.
Middlesex over govs 12-9.

Anyone else have thoughts ??

Going back to my initial post. Most of these predictions were pretty spot on in terms of scores besides sebs nobles. I think it’ll be inevitable to have the 1&2 seeds meet for the first time in the championship but RL’s defense and their transition game will make them a very tough out against BH.

[oldbartman]

I caught the 2nd half of MX over Govs. IT seemed to be Govs D was slower/didn't match up well with MX attack. Slides were late at best.

[Laxxal22]

I think it’ll be inevitable to have the 1&2 seeds meet for the first time in the championship but RL’s defense and their transition game will make them a very tough out against BH.

I agree that Belmont Hill-St. Seb's feels inevitable even though both semis are rematches of one-goal games from just three weeks ago. Middlesex and RL have great senior classes that have lead them to this point and will fight to the end. But BH and Seb's do as well, along with great junior and sophomore classes that give them big depth advantages. However, if the goalie, faceoff guy, and a shooter for one of the underdogs all get hot for the same stretch, then both teams have the pop to pull off an upset.

What I can't see is either beating the top two on consecutive days. MX and RL typically play 16ish guys in a game, while BH and Seb's comfortably run 20+. Saturday's games will be physical, hopefully penalty free. Everyone will be sore Sunday, but BH and/or Seb's should have more in the tank to go another round, and while these aren't David & Goliath match ups it'd be really tough for MX/RL to punch above their weight to this degree twice in a two-day stretch.

Middlesex @ St. Seb's - 12:30: Seb's got great practice for this match up playing Nobles back-to-back, as the Tweedy/O'Leary midfield tandem is similar to MX's Moore/Egan in size, skill, athleticism as well as how much of the offense they initiate. MX bring a big four on offense, but the Seb's stable of Swiss Army Knife longsticks should help them find match ups that allow them to cover aggressively. Joyce returning is big for the Arrows, giving them another body in the midfield where they already enjoyed a numbers advantage over the Zebras, and adds a boost should Seb's make it to Sunday.

Roxbury Latin @ Belmont Hill - 2:00: It's always a rock fight when the all-boys schools square off. What has separated BH in their big wins, and it seems RL avoided in the first match up, are streaks that blow open competitive games (scoring 7 of the first 8 in the third quarter against Nobles, opening 8-2 to start at Seb's, I believe they had a big run in the Deerfield game as well). BH secured strong leads, and while the opponents battled back in all of them they didn't have enough to win. Avoiding or minimizing a streak like that will be essential if the Sextants are to be stopped this weekend. RL are one of four teams to keep them under 10 this season so we'll see if the Foxes have a secret sauce or it was just an off day for BH.

I like both favorites by 3-5 goals. Comfortable 4th quarters, maybe run a little extra depth to preserve legs, but far from empty the bench situations.

[OFOSHO]

I think it’ll be inevitable to have the 1&2 seeds meet for the first time in the championship but RL’s defense and their transition game will make them a very tough out against BH.

I agree that Belmont Hill-St. Seb's feels inevitable even though both semis are rematches of one-goal games from just three weeks ago. Middlesex and RL have great senior classes that have lead them to this point and will fight to the end. But BH and Seb's do as well, along with great junior and sophomore classes that give them big depth advantages. However, if the goalie, faceoff guy, and a shooter for one of the underdogs all get hot for the same stretch, then both teams have the pop to pull off an upset.

What I can't see is either beating the top two on consecutive days. MX and RL typically play 16ish guys in a game, while BH and Seb's comfortably run 20+. Saturday's games will be physical, hopefully penalty free. Everyone will be sore Sunday, but BH and/or Seb's should have more in the tank to go another round, and while these aren't David & Goliath match ups it'd be really tough for MX/RL to punch above their weight to this degree twice in a two-day stretch.

Middlesex @ St. Seb's - 12:30: Seb's got great practice for this match up playing Nobles back-to-back, as the Tweedy/O'Leary midfield tandem is similar to MX's Moore/Egan in size, skill, athleticism as well as how much of the offense they initiate. MX bring a big four on offense, but the Seb's stable of Swiss Army Knife longsticks should help them find match ups that allow them to cover aggressively. Joyce returning is big for the Arrows, giving them another body in the midfield where they already enjoyed a numbers advantage over the Zebras, and adds a boost should Seb's make it to Sunday.

Roxbury Latin @ Belmont Hill - 2:00: It's always a rock fight when the all-boys schools square off. What has separated BH in their big wins, and it seems RL avoided in the first match up, are streaks that blow open competitive games (scoring 7 of the first 8 in the third quarter against Nobles, opening 8-2 to start at Seb's, I believe they had a big run in the Deerfield game as well). BH secured strong leads, and while the opponents battled back in all of them they didn't have enough to win. Avoiding or minimizing a streak like that will be essential if the Sextants are to be stopped this weekend. RL are one of four teams to keep them under 10 this season so we'll see if the Foxes have a secret sauce or it was just an off day for BH.

I like both favorites by 3-5 goals. Comfortable 4th quarters, maybe run a little extra depth to preserve legs, but far from empty the bench situations.

100% two comfortable wins for the top two seeds
I agree about the RL defense but they got killed when Milton dodged from behind. Great job by the RL defense above GLE and they’ll need a repeat performance or assign someone else to play the BH QB behind the goal.

Sebs offense is peaking at the right time of year (kinda like Nobles always does). I don’t see anyone stopping them or keeping up w them this weekend!

Good luck to all!

[Laxxal22]

Middlesex with the huge win 10-9! Down for most of the game they had no quit and feasted on a penalty-filled afternoon for the Arrows. Great season for Seb's and a chance for the Zebras to send Coach Worthen out as a champion tomorrow!

[porkchop]

Went to game. Epic meltdown. Sebs was cruising up 8-4 with a man up face off end of 3rd. Nothing went right after that. Give credit to Msex to do what it took including a huge save as time expired. I do think it is fair to say the refs had and outsized impact on the game which is unfortunate.

[Laxxal22]

The final is here. Everyone expected this for Belmont Hill. Few outside of the locker room expected it for Middlesex. I still believe it'd be Herculean for MX to pull off the back to back wins, but with yesterday's cloudy, cool weather and so many Seb's penalties keeping the game from becoming a track meet, the Zebras' short bench might still have decent legs today. And belief has to be strong. BH can't let that feeling hang around and grow the way Seb's did. If they play clean they should be able to snuff it out. I don't have a score prediction but I'd put the line at -4 and take BH.

[OFOSHO]

The final is here. Everyone expected this for Belmont Hill. Few outside of the locker room expected it for Middlesex. I still believe it'd be Herculean for MX to pull off the back to back wins, but with yesterday's cloudy, cool weather and so many Seb's penalties keeping the game from becoming a track meet, the Zebras' short bench might still have decent legs today. And belief has to be strong. BH can't let that feeling hang around and grow the way Seb's did. If they play clean they should be able to snuff it out. I don't have a score prediction but I'd put the line at -4 and take BH.

TY Laxxal! You've been amazing all season! My predictions have been 100% all ISL playoffs...in truth 50% and that can't happen in this final round.
So I think BH 14 - MX 8.

See you all at Nobles!

[Laxxal22]

Stream for the final at 3:00 - https://bbiglive.com/events/1422-isl-bo ... 2024-05-19

[JoeMauer89]

Belmont Hill 19 Middlesex 6 Final

Joe

[Laxxal22]

Congratulations to Belmont Hill. They looked championship caliber from the start with their win at Deerfield, and left no doubt yesterday with a rout of Middlesex. BH playing at a high level was the one constant of a season filled with bizarre outcomes - both single game and season long.

Who do people like for the three All America spots? Off the top of my head I'd say Fox and DiBattista (Belmont Hill), Merageas (St. Seb's), and Grosso (Nobles) are the frontrunners. There were no dominant senior goalies or two-way middies in contention imo. I'd go Fox, DiBattista, Merageas but it may get weird/political when two guys from one school are in contention for only three spots.

[porkchop]

Congratulations to Belmont Hill. They looked championship caliber from the start with their win at Deerfield, and left no doubt yesterday with a rout of Middlesex. BH playing at a high level was the one constant of a season filled with bizarre outcomes - both single game and season long.

Who do people like for the three All America spots? Off the top of my head I'd say Fox and DiBattista (Belmont Hill), Merageas (St. Seb's), and Grosso (Nobles) are the frontrunners. There were no dominant senior goalies or two-way middies in contention imo. I'd go Fox, DiBattista, Merageas but it may get weird/political when two guys from one school are in contention for only three spots.

I think that is all correct. As champs it makes it easier for two AA’s from BH similar to Nobles last year. One of those two is likely also POY as well. Overall it doesn’t seem overly crowded at the very top for those awards. All-ISL often seems to go the way of the greatest numbers to the victors and so on down the list.

[11Hanks91]

Went to game. Epic meltdown. Sebs was cruising up 8-4 with a man up face off end of 3rd. Nothing went right after that. Give credit to Msex to do what it took including a huge save as time expired. I do think it is fair to say the refs had and outsized impact on the game which is unfortunate.

Never like to blame a game on the officials but that was as bad as it gets. Got robbed from what would have been a Sebs-BH championship thriller.