All Things Russia & Ukraine

[old salt]

Russia's strategy in Ukraine.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... _d1_dbrief

[Seacoaster(1)]

Russia's strategy in Ukraine.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... _d1_dbrief

Interesting; thanks for posting this. What can be done to counter the stretched line and manpower advantage?

[youthathletics]

Russia's strategy in Ukraine.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... _d1_dbrief

Interesting; thanks for posting this. What can be done to counter the stretched line and manpower advantage?

IMO, not much, other than time and prayers...or the USA. I envision it as the same thing as our southern border, only far worse.

[Seacoaster(1)]

Russia's strategy in Ukraine.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... _d1_dbrief

Interesting; thanks for posting this. What can be done to counter the stretched line and manpower advantage?

IMO, not much, other than time and prayers...or the USA. I envision it as the same thing as our southern border, only far worse.

I was thinking air power -- and I guess that is the USA and NATO. And, of course, it is nothing like the southern border.

[old salt]

Russia's strategy in Ukraine.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... _d1_dbrief

Interesting; thanks for posting this. What can be done to counter the stretched line and manpower advantage?

IMO, not much, other than time and prayers...or the USA. I envision it as the same thing as our southern border, only far worse.

I was thinking air power -- and I guess that is the USA and NATO. And, of course, it is nothing like the southern border.

I fear that Ukraine will lose some territory around Kharkiv & the Donbas enclaves. The critical shortage is more than just air defense & artillery munitions (which are limited by western production capacity), but also replacement artillery barrels & Patriot batteries & other SAM launchers, which are very much in demand & have to be donated out of hide. 2 US donated Patriot batteries have been combat losses, Germany has just agreed to donate another. The Ukrainians have to choose between protecting their population centers, energy infrastructure or their combat forces. Manpower is also a critical factor. Ukraine just lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25 & now require all males > 18 to register for conscription. It has not been well received by the public & the number of volunteers is insufficient.

Unless the Ukrainian military or govt collapse I think the Russian gains will be limited by their inability to conduct combined arms maneuver warfare & their ability to occupy added territory. It may come down to if Ukraine can recruit & train enough soldiers & if western arms production ever ramps up enough.

If Ukraine does begin to collapse, I forsee pressure on the US &/or NATO to intervene with air power.

[Seacoaster(1)]

Russia's strategy in Ukraine.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... _d1_dbrief

Interesting; thanks for posting this. What can be done to counter the stretched line and manpower advantage?

IMO, not much, other than time and prayers...or the USA. I envision it as the same thing as our southern border, only far worse.

I was thinking air power -- and I guess that is the USA and NATO. And, of course, it is nothing like the southern border.

I fear that Ukraine will lose some territory around Kharkiv & the Donbas enclaves. The critical shortage is more than just air defense & artillery munitions (which are limited by western production capacity), but also replacement artillery barrels & Patriot batteries & other SAM launchers, which are very much in demand & have to be donated out of hide. 2 US donated Patriot batteries have been combat losses, Germany has just agreed to donate another. The Ukrainians have to choose between protecting their population centers, energy infrastructure or their combat forces. Manpower is also a critical factor. Ukraine just lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25 & now require all males > 18 to register for conscription. It has not been well received by the public & the number of volunteers is insufficient.

Unless the Ukrainian military or govt collapse I think the Russian gains will be limited by their inability to conduct combined arms maneuver warfare & their ability to occupy added territory. It may come down to if Ukraine can recruit & train enough soldiers & if western arms production ever ramps up enough.

If Ukraine does begin to collapse, I forsee pressure on the US &/or NATO to intervene with air power.

Thanks; the reply is much appreciated.

[a fan]

If Ukraine does begin to collapse, I forsee pressure on the US &/or NATO to intervene with air power.

.....and the the inevitable mission creep arrives on the scene. As it always does. After all the hubub, Biden and the R's and D's in Congress won't allow Ukraine to fall.

(not directing this at you, OS....directing this at where neo-con thinking ALWAYS leads).

Ukraine can't hold out forever by themselves. And Russian can't hold the lands without decades of terrorism.

This is why I FIRMLY believe in all or nothing: either strike up a treaty with a country we deem critical, and park US troops there......or leave them the F alone.

This "a little bit pregnant" approach has failed us again, and again, and again, and again......

[PizzaSnake]

If Ukraine does begin to collapse, I forsee pressure on the US &/or NATO to intervene with air power.

.....and the the inevitable mission creep arrives on the scene. As it always does. After all the hubub, Biden and the R's and D's in Congress won't allow Ukraine to fall.

(not directing this at you, OS....directing this at where neo-con thinking ALWAYS leads).

Ukraine can't hold out forever by themselves. And Russian can't hold the lands without decades of terrorism.

This is why I FIRMLY believe in all or nothing: either strike up a treaty with a country we deem critical, and park US troops there......or leave them the F alone.

This "a little bit pregnant" approach has failed us again, and again, and again, and again......

Just return their nukes.

[MDlaxfan76]

If Ukraine does begin to collapse, I forsee pressure on the US &/or NATO to intervene with air power.

.....and the the inevitable mission creep arrives on the scene. As it always does. After all the hubub, Biden and the R's and D's in Congress won't allow Ukraine to fall.

(not directing this at you, OS....directing this at where neo-con thinking ALWAYS leads).

Ukraine can't hold out forever by themselves. And Russian can't hold the lands without decades of terrorism.

This is why I FIRMLY believe in all or nothing: either strike up a treaty with a country we deem critical, and park US troops there......or leave them the F alone.

This "a little bit pregnant" approach has failed us again, and again, and again, and again......

Just return their nukes.

Exactly.
That said, a fan's point that "a little bit pregnant" has extra risks is a sound one, though I come to a different conclusion.

I just don't think America nor the rest of NATO was in a mindset to get into a treaty relationship with Ukraine before 2014 as it really wasn't clear that they wanted to ally westward, but we probably should have done so in 2014 when that became infinitely more clear...but again, we were tired of conflict and didn't want to stick our necks out. Obama certainly didn't. Trump I truly believe was in bed with Putin, whether he fully realized it or not, so it wasn't happening at that point.

It took a full scale Russian invasion to wake Europe and the US up as to what Putin's ambitions really are. We'd been looking the other way as we typically do...human nature.

[a fan]

If Ukraine does begin to collapse, I forsee pressure on the US &/or NATO to intervene with air power.

.....and the the inevitable mission creep arrives on the scene. As it always does. After all the hubub, Biden and the R's and D's in Congress won't allow Ukraine to fall.

(not directing this at you, OS....directing this at where neo-con thinking ALWAYS leads).

Ukraine can't hold out forever by themselves. And Russian can't hold the lands without decades of terrorism.

This is why I FIRMLY believe in all or nothing: either strike up a treaty with a country we deem critical, and park US troops there......or leave them the F alone.

This "a little bit pregnant" approach has failed us again, and again, and again, and again......

Just return their nukes.

Exactly.
That said, a fan's point that "a little bit pregnant" has extra risks is a sound one, though I come to a different conclusion.

I just don't think America nor the rest of NATO was in a mindset to get into a treaty relationship with Ukraine before 2014 as it really wasn't clear that they wanted to ally westward, but we probably should have done so in 2014 when that became infinitely more clear...but again, we were tired of conflict and didn't want to stick our necks out. Obama certainly didn't. Trump I truly believe was in bed with Putin, whether he fully realized it or not, so it wasn't happening at that point.

It took a full scale Russian invasion to wake Europe and the US up as to what Putin's ambitions really are. We'd been looking the other way as we typically do...human nature.

Again, this directs you to the "get fully pregnant" choices:

1. leave Ukraine the F alone, and let them keep their nukes, making invasion impossible, or,
2. decide that Ukraine is important, and make them a part of NATO IMMEDIATELY after the fall of the Soviets, making invasion impossible, or,
3. strike up a direct Senate ratified treaty with Ukraine with the US all alone, and park US troops there, making invasion impossible.
4. leave Ukraine the F alone entirely, as we did with Crimea etc. Let Putin do his thing, and let this be HIS problem.


All of the above would have better outcomes than what we have today with the a little bit pregnant approach. There's a REASON our founders designed treaty-making the way that they did: you have to THINK about it, instead of the shoot first, think about it later game we keep playing.

[youthathletics]

If Ukraine does begin to collapse, I forsee pressure on the US &/or NATO to intervene with air power.

.....and the the inevitable mission creep arrives on the scene. As it always does. After all the hubub, Biden and the R's and D's in Congress won't allow Ukraine to fall.

(not directing this at you, OS....directing this at where neo-con thinking ALWAYS leads).

Ukraine can't hold out forever by themselves. And Russian can't hold the lands without decades of terrorism.

This is why I FIRMLY believe in all or nothing: either strike up a treaty with a country we deem critical, and park US troops there......or leave them the F alone.

This "a little bit pregnant" approach has failed us again, and again, and again, and again......

Just return their nukes.

Exactly.
That said, a fan's point that "a little bit pregnant" has extra risks is a sound one, though I come to a different conclusion.

I just don't think America nor the rest of NATO was in a mindset to get into a treaty relationship with Ukraine before 2014 as it really wasn't clear that they wanted to ally westward, but we probably should have done so in 2014 when that became infinitely more clear...but again, we were tired of conflict and didn't want to stick our necks out. Obama certainly didn't. Trump I truly believe was in bed with Putin, whether he fully realized it or not, so it wasn't happening at that point.

It took a full scale Russian invasion to wake Europe and the US up as to what Putin's ambitions really are. We'd been looking the other way as we typically do...human nature.

Again, this directs you to the "get fully pregnant" choices:

1. leave Ukraine the F alone, and let them keep their nukes, making invasion impossible, or,
2. decide that Ukraine is important, and make them a part of NATO IMMEDIATELY after the fall of the Soviets, making invasion impossible, or,
3. strike up a direct Senate ratified treaty with Ukraine with the US all alone, and park US troops there, making invasion impossible.
4. leave Ukraine the F alone entirely, as we did with Crimea etc. Let Putin do his thing, and let this be HIS problem.


All of the above would have better outcomes than what we have today with the a little bit pregnant approach. There's a REASON our founders designed treaty-making the way that they did: you have to THINK about it, instead of the shoot first, think about it later game we keep playing.

for consideration….
Imagine Ukraine sending a tactical nuke. Would other countries be upset if they first tried a treaty and it failed…..probably not. Russia would most likely be viewed as the black sheep….you can only back someone into corner for so long.

[a fan]

If Ukraine does begin to collapse, I forsee pressure on the US &/or NATO to intervene with air power.

.....and the the inevitable mission creep arrives on the scene. As it always does. After all the hubub, Biden and the R's and D's in Congress won't allow Ukraine to fall.

(not directing this at you, OS....directing this at where neo-con thinking ALWAYS leads).

Ukraine can't hold out forever by themselves. And Russian can't hold the lands without decades of terrorism.

This is why I FIRMLY believe in all or nothing: either strike up a treaty with a country we deem critical, and park US troops there......or leave them the F alone.

This "a little bit pregnant" approach has failed us again, and again, and again, and again......

Just return their nukes.

Exactly.
That said, a fan's point that "a little bit pregnant" has extra risks is a sound one, though I come to a different conclusion.

I just don't think America nor the rest of NATO was in a mindset to get into a treaty relationship with Ukraine before 2014 as it really wasn't clear that they wanted to ally westward, but we probably should have done so in 2014 when that became infinitely more clear...but again, we were tired of conflict and didn't want to stick our necks out. Obama certainly didn't. Trump I truly believe was in bed with Putin, whether he fully realized it or not, so it wasn't happening at that point.

It took a full scale Russian invasion to wake Europe and the US up as to what Putin's ambitions really are. We'd been looking the other way as we typically do...human nature.

Again, this directs you to the "get fully pregnant" choices:

1. leave Ukraine the F alone, and let them keep their nukes, making invasion impossible, or,
2. decide that Ukraine is important, and make them a part of NATO IMMEDIATELY after the fall of the Soviets, making invasion impossible, or,
3. strike up a direct Senate ratified treaty with Ukraine with the US all alone, and park US troops there, making invasion impossible.
4. leave Ukraine the F alone entirely, as we did with Crimea etc. Let Putin do his thing, and let this be HIS problem.


All of the above would have better outcomes than what we have today with the a little bit pregnant approach. There's a REASON our founders designed treaty-making the way that they did: you have to THINK about it, instead of the shoot first, think about it later game we keep playing.

for consideration….
Imagine Ukraine sending a tactical nuke. Would other countries be upset if they first tried a treaty and it failed…..probably not. Russia would most likely be viewed as the black sheep….you can only back someone into corner for so long.

The one thing you can count on from our "little bit pregnant approach" is that there are unforeseen consequence that can last for 100 years......

[dislaxxic]

Interesting discussion on Morning Joe on Friday about how the US has an economy at approx. 26 Trillion, the EU has an economy at approx. 25 trillion, China is at 17T and Russia is at 1.7T. Common Russians subsist on 800 rubles a month while the kleptocracy rides around in $700 million yachts. Taxes were recently raised for the first time in 20+ years by as much as 25%.

Russia's population has been declining for many years AND getting much older as younger, more educated/professional people "vote with their feet" and leave. Wealth disparity, political suppression, extreme poverty, forced conscription and more, Russia is just not a great place to live these days.

One pundit said this was ONE reason Putin needs Ukraine so badly. Interesting.

..

[Seacoaster(1)]

Interesting discussion on Morning Joe on Friday about how the US has an economy at approx. 26 Trillion, the EU has an economy at approx. 25 trillion, China is at 17T and Russia is at 1.7T. Common Russians subsist on 800 rubles a month while the kleptocracy rides around in $700 million yachts. Taxes were recently raised for the first time in 20+ years by as much as 25%.

Russia's population has been declining for many years AND getting much older as younger, more educated/professional people "vote with their feet" and leave. Wealth disparity, political suppression, extreme poverty, forced conscription and more, Russia is just not a great place to live these days.

One pundit said this was ONE reason Putin needs Ukraine so badly. Interesting.

..

This is the longest lasting problem when a state fails: the flight of the intellectual capital called brains. See Venezuela. Easy to believe that educated Russians want not only to avoid service in the assault on their neighbors, but want out of a society that looks bleak generally from an upward, maybe even lateral, mobility standpoint.

[cradleandshoot]

Russia's strategy in Ukraine.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... _d1_dbrief

Interesting; thanks for posting this. What can be done to counter the stretched line and manpower advantage?

IMO, not much, other than time and prayers...or the USA. I envision it as the same thing as our southern border, only far worse.

I was thinking air power -- and I guess that is the USA and NATO. And, of course, it is nothing like the southern border.

I fear that Ukraine will lose some territory around Kharkiv & the Donbas enclaves. The critical shortage is more than just air defense & artillery munitions (which are limited by western production capacity), but also replacement artillery barrels & Patriot batteries & other SAM launchers, which are very much in demand & have to be donated out of hide. 2 US donated Patriot batteries have been combat losses, Germany has just agreed to donate another. The Ukrainians have to choose between protecting their population centers, energy infrastructure or their combat forces. Manpower is also a critical factor. Ukraine just lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25 & now require all males > 18 to register for conscription. It has not been well received by the public & the number of volunteers is insufficient.

Unless the Ukrainian military or govt collapse I think the Russian gains will be limited by their inability to conduct combined arms maneuver warfare & their ability to occupy added territory. It may come down to if Ukraine can recruit & train enough soldiers & if western arms production ever ramps up enough.

If Ukraine does begin to collapse, I forsee pressure on the US &/or NATO to intervene with air power.

There is no war of attrition when it comes to Patriot batterys. Once they are gone they are gone.

[cradleandshoot]

I wonder how long before Ukraine has to consider using SoF to replenish their ranks of front line combat troops they have lost. Nobody likes the idea of hired guns but there are a lot of dog faces out there that will fight if the paycheck is right.

[a fan]

Interesting discussion on Morning Joe on Friday about how the US has an economy at approx. 26 Trillion, the EU has an economy at approx. 25 trillion, China is at 17T and Russia is at 1.7T. Common Russians subsist on 800 rubles a month while the kleptocracy rides around in $700 million yachts. Taxes were recently raised for the first time in 20+ years by as much as 25%.

Russia's population has been declining for many years AND getting much older as younger, more educated/professional people "vote with their feet" and leave. Wealth disparity, political suppression, extreme poverty, forced conscription and more, Russia is just not a great place to live these days.

One pundit said this was ONE reason Putin needs Ukraine so badly. Interesting.

..

And yet how many times did we have to hear the "Putin is playing chess, and the EU and OBama are playing checkers..."

Yeah, right. Where would YOU prefer to live, is my retort. Russia is going BACKWARDS because Putin and his fellow Russians in power are dealing with an inferiority complex, and think that the only way to turn Russia into the power it once was is (snicker) war.

All he had to do is open up Russia to the US and EU as a favored trading partner, and stop with the fascist nonsense. Moscow could have been a global Vegas, where the rich come to do whatever they want.

Instead? 800 rubbles a month, and dropping. Giving his energy away to China and India at cut rate prices ($30 per barrel less than others), who are both more than happy to play Putin for the sucker that he is.

He's an idiot. Always has been. No vision. No understanding of economics. All he knows is the secret squirrel fascist behavior he learned in the KGB. I would't put him in charge of an In and Out Burger, let alone an entire country.

[cradleandshoot]

Interesting discussion on Morning Joe on Friday about how the US has an economy at approx. 26 Trillion, the EU has an economy at approx. 25 trillion, China is at 17T and Russia is at 1.7T. Common Russians subsist on 800 rubles a month while the kleptocracy rides around in $700 million yachts. Taxes were recently raised for the first time in 20+ years by as much as 25%.

Russia's population has been declining for many years AND getting much older as younger, more educated/professional people "vote with their feet" and leave. Wealth disparity, political suppression, extreme poverty, forced conscription and more, Russia is just not a great place to live these days.

One pundit said this was ONE reason Putin needs Ukraine so badly. Interesting.

..

And yet how many times did we have to hear the "Putin is playing chess, and the EU and OBama are playing checkers..."

Yeah, right. Where would YOU prefer to live, is my retort. Russia is going BACKWARDS because Putin and his fellow Russians in power are dealing with an inferiority complex, and think that the only way to turn Russia into the power it once was is (snicker) war.

All he had to do is open up Russia to the US and EU as a favored trading partner, and stop with the fascist nonsense. Moscow could have been a global Vegas, where the rich come to do whatever they want.

Instead? 800 rubbles a month, and dropping. Giving his energy away to China and India at cut rate prices ($30 per barrel less than others), who are both more than happy to play Putin for the sucker that he is.

He's an idiot. Always has been. No vision. No understanding of economics. All he knows is the secret squirrel fascist behavior he learned in the KGB. I would't put him in charge of an In and Out Burger, let alone an entire country.

There is a legitimate argument that America is going backwards in many aspects. That is what so many college students at so called elite universities are telling us.

[a fan]

Interesting discussion on Morning Joe on Friday about how the US has an economy at approx. 26 Trillion, the EU has an economy at approx. 25 trillion, China is at 17T and Russia is at 1.7T. Common Russians subsist on 800 rubles a month while the kleptocracy rides around in $700 million yachts. Taxes were recently raised for the first time in 20+ years by as much as 25%.

Russia's population has been declining for many years AND getting much older as younger, more educated/professional people "vote with their feet" and leave. Wealth disparity, political suppression, extreme poverty, forced conscription and more, Russia is just not a great place to live these days.

One pundit said this was ONE reason Putin needs Ukraine so badly. Interesting.

..

And yet how many times did we have to hear the "Putin is playing chess, and the EU and OBama are playing checkers..."

Yeah, right. Where would YOU prefer to live, is my retort. Russia is going BACKWARDS because Putin and his fellow Russians in power are dealing with an inferiority complex, and think that the only way to turn Russia into the power it once was is (snicker) war.

All he had to do is open up Russia to the US and EU as a favored trading partner, and stop with the fascist nonsense. Moscow could have been a global Vegas, where the rich come to do whatever they want.

Instead? 800 rubbles a month, and dropping. Giving his energy away to China and India at cut rate prices ($30 per barrel less than others), who are both more than happy to play Putin for the sucker that he is.

He's an idiot. Always has been. No vision. No understanding of economics. All he knows is the secret squirrel fascist behavior he learned in the KGB. I would't put him in charge of an In and Out Burger, let alone an entire country.

There is a legitimate argument that America is going backwards in many aspects. That is what so many college students at so called elite universities are telling us.

....and it comes as zero surprise that MAGA is selling the same bill of goods.

They should both move to the same Island, and figure stuff out.....

[old salt]

Ukraine's F-16's, conducting Wild Weasel missions, might be the game changer that saves Ukraine, if they get there in time.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine ... war-2024-5

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... sia-211091

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/f-16s-ukraine/