ISL

[Can Opener]

Starting to think we get a logjam of teams at 7-4.

likely finish at 7-4
Middlesex
Nobles
Milton
Thayer
RL
Rivers

Agreed. Good luck with that tiebreaker. Rivers/Tabor and Milton/Thayer big games Wednesday. No one wants to slip back to 5 losses

I agree that is the outcome according to Vegas lines, but it never seems to work out that way. I hope Adam White is almost as good at math as he is at English if we see that 7-4 pileup.

[Laxxal22]

I'll believe it when I see it up and running, but apparently Deerfield at Nobles @ 6:00 today will be streamed. https://twitter.com/Deerfield_Lax/statu ... 1370787887

[Laxxal22]

likely finish at 7-4
Middlesex
Nobles
Milton
Thayer
RL
Rivers

A look at the final week for these teams.

Middlesex (6-3) @ Belmont Hill 5/8, vs. Govs 5/11. The Zebras just need one win, but that won’t be easy. If MX is among some teams from the list above to stumble to a 6-5 finish, they have good tie-breakers with their strength of schedule and wins over Nobles and Rivers. Belmont Hill basically have the #1 seed wrapped up again, and up Govs probably end up #3 depending on Saturday’s results.

Nobles (6-3) \vs. BB&N 5/8, @ St. Seb’s 5/11. We’ll see if the lopsided Deerfield result has any effect on the up and down Dawgs. They should handle BB&N and the Seb’s game will be tight. Looks like they’ll end up somewhere between the 3rd and 6th seed, while Seb’s should be the #2 seed regardless of Saturday’s outcome due to (my assumption) strength of schedule over Govs.

Milton Academy (6-3) @ Thayer 5/8, @ Groton 5/11: The Mustangs have been tough all season. They’ll have to match the energy of Thayer who are already 2-0 in must-win games. If they can’t then they must win against an always competitive Groton squad on Saturday.

Thayer (5-4) vs. Milton 5/8, vs. Lawrence Academy 5/11: As referenced above, the playoffs began last week for Thayer when their ISL record stood at 3-4. The Tigers have the talent to hang with any team in the league, and should win out the regular season if they play to it. Tiebreakers don’t look great if they lose to Milton and finish 6-5.

Roxbury Latin (5-4) vs. St. Mark’s 5/8, vs. St. George’s 5/11: The Foxes got their signature win Saturday in OT at Govs, essentially punching their ticket to the playoffs with two games this week in which they are heavily favored. Wins over Rivers, Govs, and Middlesex could help potential tiebreakers if the 7-4pocalypse somehow takes place.

Rivers (5-4) vs. Tabor 5/8, @ Brooks 5/11: Saturday should be easy, but Tabor will be tough tomorrow if the Seawolves find the motivation to play spoiler and set the tone for the consolation playoffs. Rivers really need to finish at 7-4 as tiebreaker scenarios look bleak with head-to-head losses against RL, Milton, Middlesex, and Thayer.

[porkchop]

Milton over Thayer in OT

[Baltimore2Boston]

Milton vs. Thayer was a crazy, back and forth game.

With Bel hill beating Middlesex 15-11 we should have a log jam of three teams at 7-3 moving into Saturday if Nobles took care of BB&N today.

[porkchop]

What about tabor/rivers? Could have a big impact on Thayer

[porkchop]

Nobles beat up on Bbn

[porkchop]

With Thayer over Tabor I think that more or less settles who the top 8 are with Thayer taking the tie breaker with Rivers.

[Laxfax52]

If Govs beat MSex, there are three 6-5 teams

Thayer (who did not play Brooks, BBN, RL and BH)
Rivers (who did not play Govs, BH, Sebs and BBN)
MSex (who did not play Milton Tabor, STG, Lawrence)

Thayer beat MSex and Rivers so they should get 7? MSex beat Rivers so they should get 8? Is this the way, a 3-way tiebreaker works?

If MSex beats Govs, there are two 6-5 teams

Rivers and Thayer

Thayer beat Rivers so they should get the 8th seed.

[Can Opener]

Tabor beat Rivers 14-10
Lawrence beat St. George’s 12-6
Belmont Hill beat Middlesex 15-11
Seb’s beat Brooks 14-1 (shortened for lightning)
Nobles beat BB&N 14-4 (shortened for lightning)
RL beat St. Mark’s 20-6

[Laxxal22]

If Govs beat MSex, there are three 6-5 teams

Thayer (who did not play Brooks, BBN, RL and BH)
Rivers (who did not play Govs, BH, Sebs and BBN)
MSex (who did not play Milton Tabor, STG, Lawrence)

Thayer beat MSex and Rivers so they should get 7? MSex beat Rivers so they should get 8? Is this the way, a 3-way tiebreaker works?

If MSex beats Govs, there are two 6-5 teams

Rivers and Thayer

Thayer beat Rivers so they should get the 8th seed.

I think that all looks right but am unsure of the intricacies of tiebreakers. Rivers out and Thayer snagging the 7th or 8th seed looks right though.

Here are the final round games of consequence.

Govs (8-2) @ Middlesex (6-4): Should be a very good match up of squads with superb top line talent. MX may be a bit hungrier as a loss most likely puts them at #8 and and opening round game at BH. I believe Govs is the #3 unless they lose and Nobles beats Seb's.

Nobles (7-3) @ St. Seb's (9-1): Always a big game. Nobles have won at least the last three. I like Seb's in a close as they've been a bit more consistent and I like their poles better. There's an interesting scenario where a Nobles loss paired with MX and RL wins makes all three of them 7-4 with 1-1 records against the other two for the 5th-7th seeds. That'll take in-depth tie-breaking to sort out.

Milton Academy (7-3) @ Groton (4-6): This looks like one that Milton can and will pull away with, but I could see Groton's D keeping it within an upset margin. The #4 or #5 looks likely for MA.

My best early guess at potential seedings
1. Belmont Hill
2. St. Seb's
3. Govs or Nobles
4. Milton or Nobles
5. Milton, Nobles, RL, Middlesex
6. Milton, Nobles, RL, Middlesex
7. Milton, Nobles, RL, Middlesex, Thayer
8. Middlesex, Thayer

[Can Opener]

The tiebreaker scenarios are really mentally painful to consider. That’s a product of the ISL no longer being a round robin in the regular season. Probably best to wait until the Saturday games have wrapped up.

[cfeetjjutsc]

Brooks just beat rivers in OT

[porkchop]

Do I have this right?

1 BH
2 Seb’s
3 Govs
4 Milton
5/6/7 RL…MSX…Nobles (no idea of order)
8 Thayer

First round Wednesday at the higher seed. finals at nobles.

[Laxfax52]

Nobles Beat RL, Lost to MSex
RL Beat MSex, Lost to Nobles
MSEX Lost RL, Beat Nobles


MSex did not play Milton, STG, Tabor and Lawrence => (1 playoff team)
Nobles did not play Milton, Groton, STG, STM => (1 playoff team)
RL did not play Brooks, Sebs, Thayer, BBN => (2 playoff teams)

Not sure how they decide

[Can Opener]

RL website says they are at Milton on Wednesday. Nobles website says they are at Seb’s. So I think that means:
Thayer @ BH
Nobles @ Seb’s
Middlesex @ Gov’s
RL @ Milton

[Laxxal22]

RL website says they are at Milton on Wednesday. Nobles website says they are at Seb’s. So I think that means:
Thayer @ BH
Nobles @ Seb’s
Middlesex @ Gov’s
RL @ Milton

Good to detective work CO. ISL schools rarely put info up on their sites quickly, so for that to happen feels definitive to me. Kind of too bad as Seb's/Nobles and MX/Govs were round 11 games and now they play four days later. I was thinking Nobles may grab the #4 as they had more wins against playoff teams than MX or RL, but the Dawgs also had the worst loss of the three dropping one to Rivers. I'd love to know the criteria.

I'm sharing the post below again on a slight tweak that I think would improve the postseason. I love the playoffs but instead of two brackets each with eight teams, I hope they consider a 6, 6, 4 format going forward. Regular season has been a little too devalued and we need to figure out a way to reward the top two teams for having great seasons other than having to play Thayer and Nobles in R1 of the playoffs. viewtopic.php?p=501616&hilit=6+team+playoff#p501616

[Laxxal22]

RL website says they are at Milton on Wednesday. Nobles website says they are at Seb’s. So I think that means:
Thayer @ BH
Nobles @ Seb’s
Middlesex @ Gov’s
RL @ Milton

Those match ups confirmed: https://www.laxjournal.com/isl-boys-lac ... d-results/

I wouldn't be surprised if the away teams win any/all of those games. Thayer will have no fear that they have the talent to match up with BH. Nobles-Seb's and MX-Govs played games that could've gone either way literally yesterday. And RL-Rivers had a one-goal game two weeks ago.

[Laxxal22]

My thoughts on tomorrow. Would love to hear what others think as well. Three fresh rematches, two of them incredibly so. Chalk results wouldn't surprise me too much, but neither would four upsets, which points to a very evenly matched first round.

#8 Thayer @ #1 Belmont Hill: A tough draw for the top seed in that Thayer have the talent with the greatest potential of the bottom four seeds to have a David Banner to The Incredible Hulk transformation if they put all the pieces together. But they just haven't done that this season, where as BH have time and again in close wins over Deerfield, Nobles, and Seb's.

#7 Nobles @ #2 St. Seb's: The spiciest round 1 match up, in part because it's essentially the continuation of Saturday's 10-8 win for Seb's. That was a truly back and forth game that was very even. A hot goalie or which team gets more EMO opportunities could be what decides the rematch. Atmosphere should be intense with the proximity of the schools and nice forecast.

#6 Middlesex @ #3 Govs: Another continuation game, but this time with a venue switch. That game was also very close (9-9 I believe) until MX separated to 14-10. Just like Nobles-Seb's, I wouldn't be surprised by a flipped result here from familiarity and even play on Saturday.

#5 Roxbury Latin @ #4 Milton Academy: This game feels a little like the Paul Rudd "Hey, look at us" Gif to me - https://giphy.com/gifs/firstwefeast-hot ... 59Mmat096S. I don't doubt both teams believed they'd make the playoffs, but being in a 4-5 seed match up that feels very winnable for either team has to feel like a blessing with how the brackets broke down. This is another coin flip game based on how close it was just two weeks ago.

I feel most confident in a win for BH, sorry for the jinx. The other three are pick ems imo.

[Can Opener]

Great stuff as always, Laxxal!

I wouldn't want to bet on any of these games. The ISL seems to be following the lead of the NESCAC where you are never sure which version of a team will show up.

You know that I fully respect your contributions to the ISL, but I just can't get on board with your three-tiered playoff system. As you point out, the two most interesting match-ups tomorrow feature the #2/#7 and the #1/#8 seeds. If we reduce the top bracket to six teams to reward regular season success, we wouldn't get to enjoy those games. Like most things in life, there is no perfect answer that pleases everyone. Home field advantage is still a strong incentive to work hard in the regular season.