THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[viper]

Now we are going after Janine Tucker? Good Lord

Robert Kuhn - extremely threatening in transition - I'll leave it to someone that actually knows what he is talking about to evaluate his on ball defensive abilities. The stat sheet is actually not eye popping for an LSM except for his offensive stats - he was basically a 28 GB and 9 CTOs per year. That is less than 2 ground balls a game and less than 1 CTO per game. For someone on the wings for over half the face-offs and the #1 LSM that's not off the charts by any stretch. Not saying we had anyone better.

'06 does tend to be a little arrogant in his posts - with mistakes - anybody calling the Hopkins defense Dwan's defense needs the meds adjusted. That is 100% Petro through and through

There is absolutely no question the pre-Rabil era and the post-Rabil eras under Petro have been vastly different. Yes the landscape of the game has shifted but did he adapt as well as he could have? Did he choose the right strategies?

I remain steadfast that the biggest mistake was the 100% absolute no holds barred commitment to early recruiting. It has created the direct and indirect issues that in my opinion the team is struggling with:

- Pure misses - kids that excel in a summer league game at 13/14 years old might not be the best players by the time they are 17/18 playing against real competition in high school - conversely you also have the type II error - you miss the kid in the upper class of high school that would kill himself to play for Hopkins because you're off watching the 8th graders play

- Size issues - again - not even coming close to claiming that smaller/quicker players can't excel at the game - but it is probably not the best strategy to role out 6 mid-fielders and only one of them is anywhere near 6 ft. tall - that is until Zinn started to play some - when someone is 5'7" 140 lbs soaking wet at 14 years old he might not get much bigger - you can't be sure. Trying to predict human growth is a bad way to go to begin with - starting at freshmen in high school exacerbates the issue a thousand fold

- Roster Size - you compensate for the uncertainty of recruiting such younger players by recruiting MORE of them on the likely theory that some of them will be very good players and you'll manage the fall-out. This - to my mind - creates a host of issues I have already laid out before - managing 50+ players when the magic number is 23 means over half the team will essentially never see the field. I can't imagine that's an unbelievable experience for all. It also means that some recruits you might be interested in and they might reciprocate their interest will never consider Hopkins because there is already 10 guys in front of them, e.g. maybe young Mr. Morrill would have been more interested in Hopkins even with Shack if there weren't a whole nest full of other attackmen around - one of Shack's most successful seasons was his freshmen campaign when he was much more a wing player with his brother handling the ball more. Does this have any role in player development? - when you have to run 53 guys through a 2 hour practice - and you know for half the team practice is the only time they will be on the field are the guys that need the reps getting them?

- Decommits/transfers/etc. - While all programs have these issues - and I admittedly have no data to back this up - but like HF16 and his sense that Hopkins takes longer to get into the offense under the shot clock it appears to me that Hopkins suffers more from this issue than most programs.

- Roster Construction - related to the roster size, player size and timing of securing verbals - this is how you end up with so many converted attackmen and if you consider DeSimone a high school attackman - that means you don't have a non freshmen middie that wasn't a converted attakmen (except for maybe Stagnitta) How does that happen? How - if Foley really comes back - could you end up with theoretically 15+ people carrying 6 ft poles. Stop me if I am wrong but I think only 4 can play at a time. This is also how you recruit - as I pointed out before - 4 guys
Murphy/Cohen/Chauvette (yes I know he is now a year behind)/Angelus that are all attack and are all almost exactly the same size. I hope - more than hope Murphy is a Blue Jay version of Mac the Knife but you don't need 4 of them.

Drives me nuts - again please don't point to Tinney and Epstein and say early recruiting was not an issue - I already gave what I consider to be a perfect analogy - if you didn't like that one - it's akin to a broken clock being right twice a day

Go back and listen to that podcast before the tournament - Petro basically admits early recruiting was a mistake.

Obviously I will never be the coach at Johns Hopkins but parents would hate it if I was - the roster would be under 40 in 2/3 years.

Excellent post!

[Sagittarius A*]

Two ER players essentially carried the offense the last two games. Having a whole team of them might not have been the way to go though. We’ve struggled in goal since Eric Schneider left for instance. I do believe that the team isn’t short on talent. If Zinn and Narewski had played in the OSU game I believe we would have won that. If Giacalone had played in the BIG championship we might have won that game in regulation. Was he in Petros dog house for taking a year off? Who knows? I do think the coaches could have made better personnel decisions this season and had a better result. We don’t know the injury situations and recruits who were lost for whatever reason and other issues. Over time luck tends to even out so over a decade one would hope for more than one final four for a program that once dominated the sport. Times have changed but the best coaches still seem to get the best out of their teams. I’m not sure this staff has done enough to merit an extension but allowing them to go into a lame duck year could have long term consequences. I have no crystal ball at this point but my guess is this staff will still be here in 2020. I hope they at least resolve the goalie situation favorably.

[admin]

Wow! DMac!!! Will admin light you up for that? And take me with you for quoting it???

Ivy, I wish you (or someone) flagged this earlier...

[admin]

Tweeeeeet! DMac, Unsportsman-like conduct. 1 Minute (2-day) Penalty. Tweet, Tweet, Tweet! Fellas, as a rule, if you're going to make a racist joke, make sure it's funny. i.e. Heavy on joke, light on racist. And even then, make sure it's not racist. When in doubt, don't. Tweeeeeet! Play on.

[pcowlax]

I can't imagine what attendance will be next spring. You think the student body which is now regionally and internationally diverse is going to schlep out to cold wet homewood in february and march to see a lacrosse program coming off a season like this?

No, but you might be able to get a few additional viewers if you get restaurants to put BTN on when the games are played.

Wow! DMac!!! Will admin light you up for that? And take me with you for quoting it???

???? BTN= Big Ten Network

[51percentcorn]

Any Hopkins player that could be described as playing well in this season/any particular game or stretch of games can be attributed to early recruiting because virtually every single one of them was recruited at a very early time frame - I understand the point that Epstein and Smith were two of the earliest. The issue isn't whether Hopkins was perceptive enough to identify Epstein as possibly a generational talent a few years ago - that wasn't that hard - I watched the kid in a fall ball game his freshmen year and it took me about 10 minutes to go "Holy $#!t" - the issue is that Hopkins was 8-8 this season, 8-7 two seasons ago and 8-7 three seasons ago - 5 losses in 2018 - 7 losses in 2015 - and 5 losses in each of '14 and '13 - you have to go all the way back to 2012 to find a Hopkins team with less than 5 losses. 44 losses in the last 7 seasons - 6.25 per season. Has early recruiting worked as an overall strategy? NO.

And again, I am on record that I didn't think early recruiting was the downfall of Western Civilization that some may have. It was just the downfall of Hopkins lacrosse the way it was implemented. You needed the utmost in discipline - if early recruiting was allowed and your competition was doing it - you were - IMO - probably doing your program a disservice if you didn't consider an Epstein, Schreiber, Moore, Aitken, O'Neill, Shellenberger, Thompson, etc. but those are all #1 #1s in their class and they are few and far between. The issue is when you lose Aitken to UVA or O'Neill to PSU/Duke you can't panic and say I have to have the next guy down on the list and ultimately fill up your entire class with high school sophomores, rising sophomores and true high school freshmen. Goalies should be virtually ignored for early recruiting and it would take a really, really special kid to early recruit a defenseman.

In terms of women's lax - this unfortunately may be the crystal ball that Hopkins men's lax will look at one day - let's see - I am a young lady from McDonogh's program or Roland Park or Moorestown or any of them and I am being heavily recruited to play women's lax. Not only do I have all the traditional schools that the men's team competes for players with (and not to mention Maryland has a boat full of national championships and title game appearances) but I can look at USC (and not have to play $500,000), Stanford, Northwestern, Oregon, Boston College etc - even a school like Virginia Tech (beautiful campus/raucous football game day experience/excellence in engineering curriculum) is an option. Tucker is doing a great job with the resources she has and what she is up against. The next Taylor Cummings is not likely to be coming to Hopkins - ever. Hopkins will be lucky to get a Mary Key again

[a fan]

I can't imagine what attendance will be next spring. You think the student body which is now regionally and internationally diverse is going to schlep out to cold wet homewood in february and march to see a lacrosse program coming off a season like this?

No, but you might be able to get a few additional viewers if you get restaurants to put BTN on when the games are played. [edited]

Wow! DMac!!! Will admin light you up for that? And take me with you for quoting it???

???? BTN= Big Ten Network

Dmac's comment has now been edited....you're not reading the comment in question.

[pcowlax]

Ahh, gottcha

[hickorystick]

I can't imagine what attendance will be next spring. You think the student body which is now regionally and internationally diverse is going to schlep out to cold wet homewood in february and march to see a lacrosse program coming off a season like this?

No, but you might be able to get a few additional viewers if you get restaurants to put BTN on when the games are played.

Right, had it said Internationally Diverse restaurants rather than a specific type, it probably would have been ok.

[DALaxDad]

JHU has one big recruiting advantage that folks haven't mentioned. Its historical prowess and location give it the opportunity to have one of the strongest, if not the strongest, strength on schedule annually. Good players want to play the best on the biggest stage.

[HopFan16]

JHU has one big recruiting advantage that folks haven't mentioned. Its historical prowess and location give it the opportunity to have one of the strongest, if not the strongest, strength on schedule annually. Good players want to play the best on the biggest stage.

I mentioned that, but you're forgiven for not finding it amid the sea of drivel that constitutes much of this thread. I think it's an important factor. If you go to Hopkins you know you will be playing the best of the best. You will be challenged. Virtually every game is a battle. Of course, there are some people here who wish the Jays would throw in a few more of the so-called "cupcakes" so that the record would be a little better, and not float precariously around .500 every year. On that note—has anyone heard anything about next year's schedule? Any changes other than Navy in and UVA out? The home-away splits should be better in 2020 as Cuse returns to Homewood and Big Ten play goes from 2 home 3 away to 3 home 2 away.

[Homer]

On that note—has anyone heard anything about next year's schedule? Any changes other than Navy in and UVA out? The home-away splits should be better in 2020 as Cuse returns to Homewood and Big Ten play goes from 2 home 3 away to 3 home 2 away.

I mentioned this a while back already, but AFAICT it can't be as simple as Navy taking the date left open by Virginia. That's based on the Patriot League schedule which is already set. Navy's bye week is 3/14, which presumably is when they'd play Hopkins, unless it becomes a midweek game (unlikely IMO) or goes back to being the season opener. That would mean Delaware either dropping from the schedule or moving to UVA's old slot on 3/21.

It was reported originally that Hopkins was looking into starting a series with another ACC team, which obviously would imply either Duke or Notre Dame -- I guess those 1st round beatdowns have whetted the appetite for more. I don't know if the ACC schedule would allow playing that game on 3/21, though, so you might be looking at one of the current February games -- Towson? -- moving to that slot and adding a new opponent to start the season.

Want to emphasize this is all just speculation based on known dates and what's been reported. It could end up being something very different.

[Henpecked]

I may have heard this incorrectly, but I believe the Delaware series was for three years, '18 and '19 at Homewood and next year at Delaware Stadium.

That is the way Petro scheduled it back in 2010-2012 as well.

[Drcthru]

Congrats to Charlie Coker(and the others)being inducted into the National Lacrosse Hall of Fame! I was there for most of his career and delighted in watching him on the field at Homewood.
https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/fuel/us-l ... ss-of-2019

[jhu06]

JHU has one big recruiting advantage that folks haven't mentioned. Its historical prowess and location give it the opportunity to have one of the strongest, if not the strongest, strength on schedule annually. Good players want to play the best on the biggest stage.

I mentioned that, but you're forgiven for not finding it amid the sea of drivel that constitutes much of this thread. I think it's an important factor. If you go to Hopkins you know you will be playing the best of the best. You will be challenged. Virtually every game is a battle. Of course, there are some people here who wish the Jays would throw in a few more of the so-called "cupcakes" so that the record would be a little better, and not float precariously around .500 every year. On that note—has anyone heard anything about next year's schedule? Any changes other than Navy in and UVA out? The home-away splits should be better in 2020 as Cuse returns to Homewood and Big Ten play goes from 2 home 3 away to 3 home 2 away.

I've seen a lot of excuses for the outgoing sr class and the program or attacks on the fans. I've not seen from them point by point solutions (and I'm probably forgetting a few) either on the roster or with incoming kids that make you think next year will not be more of the same.

Namely
-lack of midfield dodgers.
-the clustermess that was connor desimone
-the inability of the goaltender to stop shots
-the endless playing time handed out to ineffective or poor performing veterans
-the struggles at ssdm
-the struggles with wing play
-the inability to stop 5+goal runs by opposing offenses
-emotional meltdowns by sr leaders in key areas of games.
-a defense that was 58th in the nation and surrendered about 100 more goals than the 2013 team that did not even make the ncaa tournament.
-a team not prepared mentally to play 60 minutes or physically and fell from 38th to 55th in gbs (this is a perennial problem and makes you wonder what the strength/conditioning program is).

[houndace1]

USILA just announced their All Americans.

Congrats to the following Blue Jays on their individual accomplishments

Patrick Foley Defense- USILA 2nd Team

Joey Epstein Attack- USILA 3rd Team

[houndace1]

Also, just a question that i always pondered over but what exactly is "player development" in terms of college lacrosse?

Is it from a physical standpoint in getting bigger. stronger, faster, nutrition?
OR
Is it from a skills standpoint? if it is the latter, does the staff teach them new dodges, new ways of shot fakes, shooting fundamentals, jump shots etc? Most of these kids played a high level of lacrosse growing up from elite club teams, established high school programs, and maybe even individual instruction so wouldn't they have the skills/shots/dodges already defined?

[Big Dog]

JHU has one big recruiting advantage that folks haven't mentioned. Its historical prowess and location give it the opportunity to have one of the strongest, if not the strongest, strength on schedule annually. Good players want to play the best on the biggest stage.

Sorry, not buying it. The SEC footballers always find room to feast on a cupcake or two, and that doesn't seem to hurt Dabo's or Saban's recruiting....

Plus, a cupcake gives everyone the chance to play. Wouldn't the team have been better off if Zinn had gotten some PT earlier and make his rookie mistakes with a 10 goal lead? And would give the backup goalie some reps.....

[foreverlax]

Also, just a question that i always pondered over but what exactly is "player development" in terms of college lacrosse?

Is it from a physical standpoint in getting bigger. stronger, faster, nutrition?
OR
Is it from a skills standpoint? if it is the latter, does the staff teach them new dodges, new ways of shot fakes, shooting fundamentals, jump shots etc? Most of these kids played a high level of lacrosse growing up from elite club teams, established high school programs, and maybe even individual instruction so wouldn't they have the skills/shots/dodges already defined?

Guess the latter is a "it depends on the coaching staff". Most of the kids that enter college have had no real next level training - most clubs and high school coaches are focused on winning vs spending time fixing bad habits of their players.

[DougELax]

JHU has one big recruiting advantage that folks haven't mentioned. Its historical prowess and location give it the opportunity to have one of the strongest, if not the strongest, strength on schedule annually. Good players want to play the best on the biggest stage.

Sorry, not buying it. The SEC footballers always find room to feast on a cupcake or two, and that doesn't seem to hurt Dabo's or Saban's recruiting....

Plus, a cupcake gives everyone the chance to play. Wouldn't the team have been better off if Zinn had gotten some PT earlier and make his rookie mistakes with a 10 goal lead? And would give the backup goalie some reps.....

Doesn't matter who you play if coach doesn't play the bench anyway. How many minutes did backups get against Mount St. Mary's last time Hop played them? Putting the backup goalie in for the last 2:15 doesn't get a lot of real game experience.