2024 Bracketology

[coda]

I don't know how to check this one but did Maryland's loss to PSU actually help its own resume and help them secure a seed?

I've seen the argument that they have 3 top 10 RPI wins as evidence of their strong body of work but I'm curious if the loss to PSU on Thursday night was what landed PSU in the top 10 RPI. If Maryland had beaten PSU, would Maryland have had 2 top 10 wins and 2 11-20 wins?

Of course, they would have had another game to play against Michigan that I'm not accounting for but I'm curious about what looks better on paper, 8-5 with 3 top 10 wins or 9-4 with 2 top 10 wins and 2 top 20 wins.

Maryland was in either way. RPI and SOS were just too strong

I get that they're probably in either way but I think this is an interesting case a team with a high SOS that may have benefited by taking the infamous "good loss".

a good win >>>>> a good loss in RPI. In no world was Maryland better off losing to PSU

[LaxDownUnder]

I don't know how to check this one but did Maryland's loss to PSU actually help its own resume and help them secure a seed?

I've seen the argument that they have 3 top 10 RPI wins as evidence of their strong body of work but I'm curious if the loss to PSU on Thursday night was what landed PSU in the top 10 RPI. If Maryland had beaten PSU, would Maryland have had 2 top 10 wins and 2 11-20 wins?

Of course, they would have had another game to play against Michigan that I'm not accounting for but I'm curious about what looks better on paper, 8-5 with 3 top 10 wins or 9-4 with 2 top 10 wins and 2 top 20 wins.

Penn state would have been 10th with a loss to MD (and therefore no loss to UM). So the Terps would have had the top-10 win either way.

Their overall resume was 7th with the loss and would have been 5th if they'd beaten PSU. They probably cost themselves a seed or two by losing that game.

Makes sense, thanks for checking the numbers on that one!

[masondixonlax]

I don't know how to check this one but did Maryland's loss to PSU actually help its own resume and help them secure a seed?

I've seen the argument that they have 3 top 10 RPI wins as evidence of their strong body of work but I'm curious if the loss to PSU on Thursday night was what landed PSU in the top 10 RPI. If Maryland had beaten PSU, would Maryland have had 2 top 10 wins and 2 11-20 wins?

Of course, they would have had another game to play against Michigan that I'm not accounting for but I'm curious about what looks better on paper, 8-5 with 3 top 10 wins or 9-4 with 2 top 10 wins and 2 top 20 wins.

Maryland was in either way. RPI and SOS were just too strong

I get that they're probably in either way but I think this is an interesting case a team with a high SOS that may have benefited by taking the infamous "good loss".

a good win >>>>> a good loss in RPI. In no world was Maryland better off losing to PSU

haha... thought that didn't sound right. tht made no sense

[LaxDownUnder]

I don't know how to check this one but did Maryland's loss to PSU actually help its own resume and help them secure a seed?

I've seen the argument that they have 3 top 10 RPI wins as evidence of their strong body of work but I'm curious if the loss to PSU on Thursday night was what landed PSU in the top 10 RPI. If Maryland had beaten PSU, would Maryland have had 2 top 10 wins and 2 11-20 wins?

Of course, they would have had another game to play against Michigan that I'm not accounting for but I'm curious about what looks better on paper, 8-5 with 3 top 10 wins or 9-4 with 2 top 10 wins and 2 top 20 wins.

Maryland was in either way. RPI and SOS were just too strong

I get that they're probably in either way but I think this is an interesting case a team with a high SOS that may have benefited by taking the infamous "good loss".

a good win >>>>> a good loss in RPI. In no world was Maryland better off losing to PSU

haha... thought that didn't sound right. tht made no sense

Obviously its better in terms of your own RPI. I guess I was just curious because when looking at resumes, we tend to put a lot of emphasis on wins in terms of your opponents' RPIs broken down into different bands (1-5, 6-10, and 11-20). 3 top 10 wins sounds worthy of a seed to me but 2 top 10 wins and 2 top 20 wins doesn't sound as impressive. In the end, (thanks laxreference) the numbers would have worked out to 4 top 10 wins for Maryland and yes, that definitely would have helped the final seeding.

[masondixonlax]

I don't know how to check this one but did Maryland's loss to PSU actually help its own resume and help them secure a seed?

I've seen the argument that they have 3 top 10 RPI wins as evidence of their strong body of work but I'm curious if the loss to PSU on Thursday night was what landed PSU in the top 10 RPI. If Maryland had beaten PSU, would Maryland have had 2 top 10 wins and 2 11-20 wins?

Of course, they would have had another game to play against Michigan that I'm not accounting for but I'm curious about what looks better on paper, 8-5 with 3 top 10 wins or 9-4 with 2 top 10 wins and 2 top 20 wins.

Maryland was in either way. RPI and SOS were just too strong

I get that they're probably in either way but I think this is an interesting case a team with a high SOS that may have benefited by taking the infamous "good loss".

a good win >>>>> a good loss in RPI. In no world was Maryland better off losing to PSU

haha... thought that didn't sound right. tht made no sense

Obviously its better in terms of your own RPI. I guess I was just curious because when looking at resumes, we tend to put a lot of emphasis on wins in terms of your opponents' RPIs broken down into different bands (1-5, 6-10, and 11-20). 3 top 10 wins sounds worthy of a seed to me but 2 top 10 wins and 2 top 20 wins doesn't sound as impressive. In the end, (thanks laxreference) the numbers would have worked out to 4 top 10 wins for Maryland and yes, that definitely would have helped the final seeding.

[Finster]

Slay me all you want, but I feel (operative word is feel!) that Yale, Penn, and Cornell would beat Maryland.

Something has to give on this issue. I propose that a group of Fanlax posters be the committee.

[coda]

Slay me all you want, but I feel (operative word is feel!) that Yale, Penn, and Cornell would beat Maryland.

Something has to give on this issue. I propose that a group of Fanlax posters be the committee.

I wouldnt put Yale in that group. They might not win a single faceoff.. Wierman worked the Princeton face-off guy, can you imagine him vs Yale?

[Finster]

Slay me all you want, but I feel (operative word is feel!) that Yale, Penn, and Cornell would beat Maryland.

Something has to give on this issue. I propose that a group of Fanlax posters be the committee.

I wouldnt put Yale in that group. They might not win a single faceoff.. Wierman worked the Princeton face-off guy, can you imagine him vs Yale?

Yale’s FOGO is the top FOGO in the country. Think he was injured but would’ve been cleared for the tournament.

[coda]

Slay me all you want, but I feel (operative word is feel!) that Yale, Penn, and Cornell would beat Maryland.

Something has to give on this issue. I propose that a group of Fanlax posters be the committee.

I wouldnt put Yale in that group. They might not win a single faceoff.. Wierman worked the Princeton face-off guy, can you imagine him vs Yale?

Yale’s FOGO is the top FOGO in the country. Think he was injured but would’ve been cleared for the tournament.

I dont think so. Ramsey had an ACL and was done for the season. We saw Machado on 1 leg vs Princeton, no chance he would be fully healthy

[Finster]

Slay me all you want, but I feel (operative word is feel!) that Yale, Penn, and Cornell would beat Maryland.

Something has to give on this issue. I propose that a group of Fanlax posters be the committee.

I wouldnt put Yale in that group. They might not win a single faceoff.. Wierman worked the Princeton face-off guy, can you imagine him vs Yale?

Yale’s FOGO is the top FOGO in the country. Think he was injured but would’ve been cleared for the tournament.

I dont think so. Ramsey had an ACL and was done for the season. We saw Machado on 1 leg vs Princeton, no chance he would be fully healthy

Roger that.

[Finster]

And now we wait

[Stiffler]

Sadly, I am always reminded it isn't the 18 best teams that make the D1 lacrosse tourney. It is the 18 that qualify or picked.

Forget Ivy situation (cause same thing happened to ACC a few years ago when Carc and Quint about had stroke's, live on-air), the seeding is a complete disaster. Uva seeded after getting doors blown off by ND and losing 4 straight. UMD seeded after getting doors blown off by PSU (and PSU barely got in), Denver has higher seed after losing to freakin Villanova, over G'Town won the conference tourney again. Princeton, the winner of one of the top 3 conference tourney, no seed. 50% of the seeds are airballs by the "Committee".

[coda]

Sadly, I am always reminded it isn't the 18 best teams that make the D1 lacrosse tourney. It is the 18 that qualify or picked.

Forget Ivy situation (cause same thing happened to ACC a few years ago when Carc and Quint about had stroke's, live on-air), the seeding is a complete disaster. Uva seeded after getting doors blown off by ND and losing 4 straight. UMD seeded after getting doors blown off by PSU (and PSU barely got in), Denver has higher seed after losing to freakin Villanova, over G'Town won the conference tourney again. Princeton, the winner of one of the top 3 conference tourney, no seed. 50% of the seeds are airballs by the "Committee".

The committee counts every game equally in theory and that is what is annoying fans. They see teams struggling down the stretch and forget about the other 80% of the season. Princeton didnt play a top 10 team in its conference and lost to the same Maryland team you are talkign about. Michigan beat 2 top 10 teams to finish the season (3 overall) and they are unseeded. This is RPI top 10:

1 Notre Dame- #1 seed

2 Duke- #2 seed

3 Johns Hopkins- #3 seed

4 Syracuse- #4 seed

5 Virginia- #5 seed

6 Denver- #6 seed

7 Maryland- #7 seed

8 Princeton

9 Penn State

10 Georgetown - #8 seed

Only one that is off is Princeton and Gtown. Maybe that is based on top 10 wins, which Princeton had none. Gtown had the best win in the country this year..

Until the reliance on RPI is ended, this is basically what people should expect every year. Its going to closely reflect the RPI.

[CU77]

If you want more recent results to count more, the simplest thing is to declare that the conference tournaments are first rounds of the NCAA tournament (and that the ACC counts as a conference). Then we would now be down to the final 9.

[wgdsr]

Sadly, I am always reminded it isn't the 18 best teams that make the D1 lacrosse tourney. It is the 18 that qualify or picked.

Forget Ivy situation (cause same thing happened to ACC a few years ago when Carc and Quint about had stroke's, live on-air), the seeding is a complete disaster. Uva seeded after getting doors blown off by ND and losing 4 straight. UMD seeded after getting doors blown off by PSU (and PSU barely got in), Denver has higher seed after losing to freakin Villanova, over G'Town won the conference tourney again. Princeton, the winner of one of the top 3 conference tourney, no seed. 50% of the seeds are airballs by the "Committee".

The committee counts every game equally in theory and that is what is annoying fans. They see teams struggling down the stretch and forget about the other 80% of the season. Princeton didnt play a top 10 team in its conference and lost to the same Maryland team you are talkign about. Michigan beat 2 top 10 teams to finish the season (3 overall) and they are unseeded. This is RPI top 10:

1 Notre Dame- #1 seed

2 Duke- #2 seed

3 Johns Hopkins- #3 seed

4 Syracuse- #4 seed

5 Virginia- #5 seed

6 Denver- #6 seed

7 Maryland- #7 seed

8 Princeton

9 Penn State

10 Georgetown - #8 seed

Only one that is off is Princeton and Gtown. Maybe that is based on top 10 wins, which Princeton had none. Gtown had the best win in the country this year..

Until the reliance on RPI is ended, this is basically what people should expect every year. Its going to closely reflect the RPI.

and everybody knows in advance what goes into rpi. the only time that's drastically changed is 2022 (and 2021). if you have a fluid system (in theory) teams know what's expected, and the teams do, too. there's a base to part of that, and penn as an example has played the rpi game pretty well over time.

the rest on late games meaning more is shouting at clouds, imo. as someone said, that's what conference tournies are for. so is goal differential (no offense, coda). the object is to win games. and cheapening earlier games makes no sense to me. these guys play for a lot of the year, to be prepared from the jump, and when late season pressure is on if you're bubble territory.

[coda]

Sadly, I am always reminded it isn't the 18 best teams that make the D1 lacrosse tourney. It is the 18 that qualify or picked.

Forget Ivy situation (cause same thing happened to ACC a few years ago when Carc and Quint about had stroke's, live on-air), the seeding is a complete disaster. Uva seeded after getting doors blown off by ND and losing 4 straight. UMD seeded after getting doors blown off by PSU (and PSU barely got in), Denver has higher seed after losing to freakin Villanova, over G'Town won the conference tourney again. Princeton, the winner of one of the top 3 conference tourney, no seed. 50% of the seeds are airballs by the "Committee".

The committee counts every game equally in theory and that is what is annoying fans. They see teams struggling down the stretch and forget about the other 80% of the season. Princeton didnt play a top 10 team in its conference and lost to the same Maryland team you are talkign about. Michigan beat 2 top 10 teams to finish the season (3 overall) and they are unseeded. This is RPI top 10:

1 Notre Dame- #1 seed

2 Duke- #2 seed

3 Johns Hopkins- #3 seed

4 Syracuse- #4 seed

5 Virginia- #5 seed

6 Denver- #6 seed

7 Maryland- #7 seed

8 Princeton

9 Penn State

10 Georgetown - #8 seed

Only one that is off is Princeton and Gtown. Maybe that is based on top 10 wins, which Princeton had none. Gtown had the best win in the country this year..

Until the reliance on RPI is ended, this is basically what people should expect every year. Its going to closely reflect the RPI.

and everybody knows in advance what goes into rpi. the only time that's drastically changed is 2022 (and 2021). if you have a fluid system (in theory) teams know what's expected, and the teams do, too. there's a base to part of that, and penn as an example has played the rpi game pretty well over time.

the rest on late games meaning more is shouting at clouds, imo. as someone said, that's what conference tournies are for. so is goal differential (no offense, coda). the object is to win games. and cheapening earlier games makes no sense to me. these guys play for a lot of the year, to be prepared from the jump, and when late season pressure is on if you're bubble territory.

I don’t think you cheapen games, but teams either grow over the course of a season or fall back. Various things can contribute to that. It should be accounted for. The committee is using the most basic and out-dated model available (RPI). I think the sport deserves better. I would not be upset, if there was an off-season discussion on how to do a better job.

[masondixonlax]

Sadly, I am always reminded it isn't the 18 best teams that make the D1 lacrosse tourney. It is the 18 that qualify or picked.

Forget Ivy situation (cause same thing happened to ACC a few years ago when Carc and Quint about had stroke's, live on-air), the seeding is a complete disaster. Uva seeded after getting doors blown off by ND and losing 4 straight. UMD seeded after getting doors blown off by PSU (and PSU barely got in), Denver has higher seed after losing to freakin Villanova, over G'Town won the conference tourney again. Princeton, the winner of one of the top 3 conference tourney, no seed. 50% of the seeds are airballs by the "Committee".

The committee counts every game equally in theory and that is what is annoying fans. They see teams struggling down the stretch and forget about the other 80% of the season. Princeton didnt play a top 10 team in its conference and lost to the same Maryland team you are talkign about. Michigan beat 2 top 10 teams to finish the season (3 overall) and they are unseeded. This is RPI top 10:

1 Notre Dame- #1 seed

2 Duke- #2 seed

3 Johns Hopkins- #3 seed

4 Syracuse- #4 seed

5 Virginia- #5 seed

6 Denver- #6 seed

7 Maryland- #7 seed

8 Princeton

9 Penn State

10 Georgetown - #8 seed

Only one that is off is Princeton and Gtown. Maybe that is based on top 10 wins, which Princeton had none. Gtown had the best win in the country this year..

Until the reliance on RPI is ended, this is basically what people should expect every year. Its going to closely reflect the RPI.

and everybody knows in advance what goes into rpi. the only time that's drastically changed is 2022 (and 2021). if you have a fluid system (in theory) teams know what's expected, and the teams do, too. there's a base to part of that, and penn as an example has played the rpi game pretty well over time.

the rest on late games meaning more is shouting at clouds, imo. as someone said, that's what conference tournies are for. so is goal differential (no offense, coda). the object is to win games. and cheapening earlier games makes no sense to me. these guys play for a lot of the year, to be prepared from the jump, and when late season pressure is on if you're bubble territory.

It’s the same losers lament that occurs every year for whatever conference feels like they were persecuted and left out. Its wasted breath until the rpi model is abandoned. I’m sure the ivies had no problem with the model in 2022 when 6 Ivy teams got in the tournament

[wgdsr]

Sadly, I am always reminded it isn't the 18 best teams that make the D1 lacrosse tourney. It is the 18 that qualify or picked.

Forget Ivy situation (cause same thing happened to ACC a few years ago when Carc and Quint about had stroke's, live on-air), the seeding is a complete disaster. Uva seeded after getting doors blown off by ND and losing 4 straight. UMD seeded after getting doors blown off by PSU (and PSU barely got in), Denver has higher seed after losing to freakin Villanova, over G'Town won the conference tourney again. Princeton, the winner of one of the top 3 conference tourney, no seed. 50% of the seeds are airballs by the "Committee".

The committee counts every game equally in theory and that is what is annoying fans. They see teams struggling down the stretch and forget about the other 80% of the season. Princeton didnt play a top 10 team in its conference and lost to the same Maryland team you are talkign about. Michigan beat 2 top 10 teams to finish the season (3 overall) and they are unseeded. This is RPI top 10:

1 Notre Dame- #1 seed

2 Duke- #2 seed

3 Johns Hopkins- #3 seed

4 Syracuse- #4 seed

5 Virginia- #5 seed

6 Denver- #6 seed

7 Maryland- #7 seed

8 Princeton

9 Penn State

10 Georgetown - #8 seed

Only one that is off is Princeton and Gtown. Maybe that is based on top 10 wins, which Princeton had none. Gtown had the best win in the country this year..

Until the reliance on RPI is ended, this is basically what people should expect every year. Its going to closely reflect the RPI.

and everybody knows in advance what goes into rpi. the only time that's drastically changed is 2022 (and 2021). if you have a fluid system (in theory) teams know what's expected, and the teams do, too. there's a base to part of that, and penn as an example has played the rpi game pretty well over time.

the rest on late games meaning more is shouting at clouds, imo. as someone said, that's what conference tournies are for. so is goal differential (no offense, coda). the object is to win games. and cheapening earlier games makes no sense to me. these guys play for a lot of the year, to be prepared from the jump, and when late season pressure is on if you're bubble territory.

I don’t think you cheapen games, but teams either grow over the course of a season or fall back. Various things can contribute to that. It should be accounted for. The committee is using the most basic and out-dated model available (RPI). I think the sport deserves better. I would not be upset, if there was an off-season discussion on how to do a better job.

i read in my opinion to most posts when i can. so that is how i'll read yours, and in this case why i couched mine. i disagree, that's fanlax. they don't erase the games when it comes to who qualifies for a conference's tournaments bc who is playing better lately, either. the whole season matters. and again, most every team has been given an opportunity to turn it on late and be rewarded thru aqs. it's been great for the game, i am all for that change. i love march madness.

rpi is not the problem. it's a short season, you won't find a system that works awesome-sauce with it. the application of it is turrible. it's not supposed to consider straight rpi as even a primary, if anyone reads the actual rulebook. it's supposed to be what rpi's you win and lose to. the committee has gotten morphed into it being a driver.

it could be set up with actual hard based numbers, giving you a result. it's not. it's bunched in groups of 5 and discounting or nicking a win/loss vs #21 rpi, same as team 70. and different than #20. it's dumb.

rpi is not outdated. it's wins and losses. winning by how much is dumb also. imo.

[Wheels]

From a statistical perspective, the issue to me isn't the RPI or Strength of Schedule (SOS) being used as individual composite variables. To me, it's the use of both in conjunction. The RPI is a strength of schedule indicator (opponent's win%, opponent's opponents' win%). RPI and SOS share significant variance. It's the reason why playing Hampton drops a team's RPI even after a win. Is there a multicollinearity issue where they're literally measuring the same thing? Maybe not to that extreme, but I bet the correlation between the two is really strong.

All of this other eye test stuff is bias (recency). Do I think the Terps are playing well? No. Anyone can see that. But they've played really well through a couple of different parts of their schedule. No one talks about a team that started out like crap (hello, Georgetown) and penalizes them for that because "they're on a hot streak!"

Teams play between 12 and 16 games. All games count. The last 2 or 4 don't have any more significance than the first 2 or 4. After all, very few think Albany is going to knock off Notre Dame just because Albany comes in on a heater.

[LaxAllStars]

https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show ... er-e2jadst

Share a drive with Chris Cotter, Paul Carc and QK ask they reflect on Ivy tournament and look at the NCAA field.