Possible Tournament Upsets?

[Farfromgeneva]

Of the first eight games, I can think of four where the home team might not make it through:

UVA vs St. Josephs: UVA has tremendous talent, but has not been winning. Granted they have been playing the top programs in the country. In contrast, St. Joe's has one of the longest unbeaten streaks in the country.

Denver vs. Michigan: Michigan is "hot', with recent wins over Hopkins and PSU. Denver has some quality wins, but dropped a surprising game to Villanova. Denver does, however, have a unique home field advantage between distance and altitude.

Maryland vs. Princeton: Maryland, generally, has had an "off" back half of the season, dropping games to Hopkins and PSU. Princeton has some really impressive talent and finished the season strong, beating Penn twice and Yale twice. A "hot" Princeton team could surprise some.

Georgetown vs PSU: These teams seem fairly even. Penn State was 11-4 with several quality wins. Georgetown at 11-3 boasts a win against Notre Dame. Massey ranks them #7 and #8 respectively.

St. Joe's lost its first three games of the season, and hasn't lost since; beat Penn 12-7 in March. This should be a very entertaining game, and I could see UVA losing.

Perhaps Denver's home-field advantage is over-rated? Easy to imagine the Wolverines taking this one.

Can Princeton win face-offs? If not, then the Terps hold serve. If Princeton can hold its own at the dot and goalie Gianfocaro plays well, then this should be a good, close game with an upset possible.

Once you get to the 8th seed, it's not much of an upset if the home team loses. Assuming Penn State shows up to play at Georgetown, this is anyone's game.

St. Joe's had a goalie issue early in the year.
They put in the 2nd(?) line goalie and he has played well, they really tightened up the defense - and they were still working on moving on from Zach Cole at faceoff.

Goalie and it took Tyghe a while to get going as well. They got 1/2 on their key 5th yr transfers.

They also moved Eccleston from Attack to keep Levi Anderson down their full time. Once they established the starters as Page, Anderson, and Bohmer- they started to click. Same exact attack as last year, confused as to why they changed it up to begin with.

Took a bit for Bohmer to come to life, but he ended up being the 2nd leading scorer. Bohmer had 11 points in the first 5 games (2.2ppg), he's scored 38 points in his last 10 (3.8ppg).

Coach Wray had expected Richie Lacalandra to be their X attackman. When the NCAA finally ruled that he would have to wait till the 2025 season to play, he had to reconfigure his lines. Bohmer started this season on the 1st midfield, so his touch count was much lower out front. Coach Wray made the necessary adjustments and here they are. A 10 deserves a bit more respect imho.

Homer buses agreement on A10 but worth noting the third place team beat a mediocre but still top 30-35 UNC team and lost in conference semis by 1. Same record as Nova. Delta between Richmond and St Joes this year was very low. UMass was probably not even as good as their record but has a few decent wins. Too isn’t quite at the Gt/Denver level but maybe not that far off so right there with Big East and above CAA for the year I’d argue.

Even though they broke the conference glass ceiling finally it’s still really hard to forget 6-8yrs of strong reg seasons and failures in conference playoffs though when it comes to NCAAs.

[GaitsRightHand]

Coach Wray had expected Richie Lacalandra to be their X attackman. When the NCAA finally ruled that he would have to wait till the 2025 season to play, he had to reconfigure his lines. Bohmer started this season on the 1st midfield, so his touch count was much lower out front. Coach Wray made the necessary adjustments and here they are. A 10 deserves a bit more respect imho.

This makes sense. Speaking of Richie- I saw him on the sideline of the championship, getting pumped up with the team after a pole goal. Seems to be as bought in as possible, for someone who can't play this year.

I thought all the core offensive starters were materially impacted negatively by Ecclestons heavy usage early. Sort of presume Wray commits PT to fifth years who come and honors it up until the point it's just not worht it.

This also makes sense. I can respect Wray honoring what he sold Eccleston on, as you said, "up until the points its just not worth it." Eccleston played A/M at LR and has done just fine at the midfield since the move. Doesn't kill you with speed but a slick stick and solid IQ. Definitely felt his impact vs Providence... 4 goals including the game winner.

[JeremyCuse]

St. Joseph's has a long winning streak. "Hottest team." Anything can happen. Blah blah blah.

None of those wins were against tournament teams. Only 5 teams even had winning records. Anyone here really betting on them this weekend? Or even think it's likely they beat UVA?

I haven't seen them play. I am genuinely curious whether they look like they will win or whether our favorite announcers simply looked at the calendar and said "wow they haven't lost in a while and UVA just lost a bunch."

They are solid team and can give UVa issues. I am not expecting them to win, but they are tough, skilled, and experienced. UVa plays their A game, this will not be an issue for them. On the flipside its been awhile, since we have seen UVa's A game.

Towson is probably the one I would watch out for. They have good Goaltending and Fogo. Luke Downs is 13th in the nation with a .553 save percentage. Matt Constantinides is 16th in faceoff percentage in the country. Upsets usually start at the specialist area and Towson has them. I havent mentioned DeMaio and Weisshaar are legit on the offensive end.

Towson is clearly a good team and can absolutely come away with a win on Sunday, they certainly have the pieces as you noted above and with Demaio and Weissharr leading a dangerous O. Now that said I think we have to also acknowledge that the numbers you referenced are likely a bit skewed by how bad the CAA was this year. Outside of Delaware there wasn't much in the way of upper level or really even mediocre competition for Towson. 5 of the 8 conference members were under .500 including Stony Brook who was 4-10, Monmouth 5-8 and Hofstra and Drexel who were both 6-9. Towson did play Hop and UVA but that was a few months ago and I am not sure there's much to extrapolate there, though neither game was close. If Constantinides has a monster game I think SU can be in major trouble and the Cuse defense has to be worlds better then they were the last 2 games.

[10stone5]

St. Joseph's has a long winning streak. "Hottest team." Anything can happen. Blah blah blah.

None of those wins were against tournament teams. Only 5 teams even had winning records. Anyone here really betting on them this weekend? Or even think it's likely they beat UVA?

I haven't seen them play. I am genuinely curious whether they look like they will win or whether our favorite announcers simply looked at the calendar and said "wow they haven't lost in a while and UVA just lost a bunch."

They are solid team and can give UVa issues. I am not expecting them to win, but they are tough, skilled, and experienced. UVa plays their A game, this will not be an issue for them. On the flipside its been awhile, since we have seen UVa's A game.

Towson is probably the one I would watch out for. They have good Goaltending and Fogo. Luke Downs is 13th in the nation with a .553 save percentage. Matt Constantinides is 16th in faceoff percentage in the country. Upsets usually start at the specialist area and Towson has them. I havent mentioned DeMaio and Weisshaar are legit on the offensive end.

Towson is clearly a good team and can absolutely come away with a win on Sunday, they certainly have the pieces as you noted above and with Demaio and Weissharr leading a dangerous O. Now that said I think we have to also acknowledge that the numbers you referenced are likely a bit skewed by how bad the CAA was this year. Outside of Delaware there wasn't much in the way of upper level or really even mediocre competition for Towson. 5 of the 8 conference members were under .500 including Stony Brook who was 4-10, Monmouth 5-8 and Hofstra and Drexel who were both 6-9. Towson did play Hop and UVA but that was a few months ago and I am not sure there's much to extrapolate there, though neither game was close. If Constantinides has a monster game I think SU can be in major trouble and the Cuse defense has to be worlds better then they were the last 2 games.

The Navy and St Joe’s games,

Tigers were at the top of their game in those two.

The Delaware game, I’d say Tigers were back to that earlier form,
it really wasn’t a close contest at all.

[JeremyCuse]

St. Joseph's has a long winning streak. "Hottest team." Anything can happen. Blah blah blah.

None of those wins were against tournament teams. Only 5 teams even had winning records. Anyone here really betting on them this weekend? Or even think it's likely they beat UVA?

I haven't seen them play. I am genuinely curious whether they look like they will win or whether our favorite announcers simply looked at the calendar and said "wow they haven't lost in a while and UVA just lost a bunch."

They are solid team and can give UVa issues. I am not expecting them to win, but they are tough, skilled, and experienced. UVa plays their A game, this will not be an issue for them. On the flipside its been awhile, since we have seen UVa's A game.

Towson is probably the one I would watch out for. They have good Goaltending and Fogo. Luke Downs is 13th in the nation with a .553 save percentage. Matt Constantinides is 16th in faceoff percentage in the country. Upsets usually start at the specialist area and Towson has them. I havent mentioned DeMaio and Weisshaar are legit on the offensive end.

Towson is clearly a good team and can absolutely come away with a win on Sunday, they certainly have the pieces as you noted above and with Demaio and Weissharr leading a dangerous O. Now that said I think we have to also acknowledge that the numbers you referenced are likely a bit skewed by how bad the CAA was this year. Outside of Delaware there wasn't much in the way of upper level or really even mediocre competition for Towson. 5 of the 8 conference members were under .500 including Stony Brook who was 4-10, Monmouth 5-8 and Hofstra and Drexel who were both 6-9. Towson did play Hop and UVA but that was a few months ago and I am not sure there's much to extrapolate there, though neither game was close. If Constantinides has a monster game I think SU can be in major trouble and the Cuse defense has to be worlds better then they were the last 2 games.

The Navy and St Joe’s games,

Tigers were at the top of their game in those two.

The Delaware game, I’d say Tigers were back to that earlier form,
it really wasn’t a close contest at all.

Good point on Navy and St. Joes, clearly impressive performance in both games. I know St. Joes was still in that early funk but to beat that team by 8 is eye opening. Navy I don't put as much stock into as they had some games they were just no shows on - Penn State, Nova, Towson etc.

The Delaware champ game score is eye opening especially when you consider they played a 1 goal game the week before. If that squad shows up Sunday its gonna be a barn burner.

[JeremyCuse]

Towson over Cuse, Michigan over Denver, Princeton over Maryland, Penn State over Georgetown, Saint Josephs over UVa would not surprise me.

Slightly less probably but Lehigh over a dumpster fire Hopkins offense wouldnt shock me either.

Hah !
Dumpster fire !

On the other hand, though - just about every team is a dumpster fire in one way or another.

Seriously. Does any team besides Notre Dame and Duke not have serious, serious flaws? And sometimes Duke just doesn't show up, though it seems they're locked in and playing to their full potential right now and I expect that to continue.

I would add Cuse next to Duke. I dont see a fatal flaw there.

PSU is dangerous, if they learn how to face off
Hopkins is dangerous, if the offense reverts to about a month ago
UVA is dangerous, if the defense finds discipline
Princeton is dangerous, if they can continue to win face offs

Cuse's fatal flaw is that they lose their head at times and can't seem to string great performances together. I honestly think they should be on red alert against a gritty Towson team. Weisshaar is the best middie in the country IMO, and if Constantinides gets the better of Kohn at the X watch out. Having said that, I think the draw worked in their favor for a Final Four run; Towson is a tough team, but overall it's still a quadrant with three potential opponents that Cuse could still get by on an off day whether it's in the first round or the QF.

Cuse shows up in every game. They have lost by 1,1,1,2,and 5. They can have mental gaffes, but they will always compete. You cant say that about Duke. Mark might be the key. Of the top goalies, he maybe the most inconsistent. When he is on, watch out

Respectfully disagree. A 5 goal loss is not showing up, and that scoreline flattered them anyways. Game before that was a good showing against UVA. Then a one goal win against a meh UNC squad before that where they nearly threw away a big lead. Before that it was that Cornell game where they again pulled a Jekyll and Hyde performance. Honestly upon further inspection "not stringing consecutive great performances together" is putting it too lightly; they can't consistently put four great quarters together. They vacillate between red hot and ice cold, and that's not a recipe for success in May when the pressure turns way up and cold spells can turn into avalanches.

I think that Duke game was more about coaching, than showing up. Duke switched up their line-up and it was 9-2 after 1Q.. Fought back to 11-7, before Duke went on a run to end it. That was not a lack of effort, they were not prepared. I do agree that they seem to have a quarter every game , where they fall asleep. Mistake prone/lack of IQ maybe the flaw, but I dont see lack of effort there (like Duke at times).

Your correct on the issue of consistency within the game itself. I have actually pointed this out on several occasions over at syracusefan, this team has a very odd habit of having about a 10-15 stretch almost every game where they just look like a completely different team in all phases. Offense looks lost and starts turning it over, can't win faceoffs, clearing becomes a total adventure and defensively they can't stop anything. The issue is how long it will last and when. Against Duke it was the 1st quarter and then they snapped out of it but it was to late. Against UVA the game before it was late 3rd to mid 4th but then they snapped out of it. Cornell it was the entire 4th quarter. It's bizarre but happens nearly every game.

[coda]

Towson over Cuse, Michigan over Denver, Princeton over Maryland, Penn State over Georgetown, Saint Josephs over UVa would not surprise me.

Slightly less probably but Lehigh over a dumpster fire Hopkins offense wouldnt shock me either.

Hah !
Dumpster fire !

On the other hand, though - just about every team is a dumpster fire in one way or another.

Seriously. Does any team besides Notre Dame and Duke not have serious, serious flaws? And sometimes Duke just doesn't show up, though it seems they're locked in and playing to their full potential right now and I expect that to continue.

I would add Cuse next to Duke. I dont see a fatal flaw there.

PSU is dangerous, if they learn how to face off
Hopkins is dangerous, if the offense reverts to about a month ago
UVA is dangerous, if the defense finds discipline
Princeton is dangerous, if they can continue to win face offs

Cuse's fatal flaw is that they lose their head at times and can't seem to string great performances together. I honestly think they should be on red alert against a gritty Towson team. Weisshaar is the best middie in the country IMO, and if Constantinides gets the better of Kohn at the X watch out. Having said that, I think the draw worked in their favor for a Final Four run; Towson is a tough team, but overall it's still a quadrant with three potential opponents that Cuse could still get by on an off day whether it's in the first round or the QF.

Cuse shows up in every game. They have lost by 1,1,1,2,and 5. They can have mental gaffes, but they will always compete. You cant say that about Duke. Mark might be the key. Of the top goalies, he maybe the most inconsistent. When he is on, watch out

Respectfully disagree. A 5 goal loss is not showing up, and that scoreline flattered them anyways. Game before that was a good showing against UVA. Then a one goal win against a meh UNC squad before that where they nearly threw away a big lead. Before that it was that Cornell game where they again pulled a Jekyll and Hyde performance. Honestly upon further inspection "not stringing consecutive great performances together" is putting it too lightly; they can't consistently put four great quarters together. They vacillate between red hot and ice cold, and that's not a recipe for success in May when the pressure turns way up and cold spells can turn into avalanches.

I think that Duke game was more about coaching, than showing up. Duke switched up their line-up and it was 9-2 after 1Q.. Fought back to 11-7, before Duke went on a run to end it. That was not a lack of effort, they were not prepared. I do agree that they seem to have a quarter every game , where they fall asleep. Mistake prone/lack of IQ maybe the flaw, but I dont see lack of effort there (like Duke at times).

Your correct on the issue of consistency within the game itself. I have actually pointed this out on several occasions over at syracusefan, this team has a very odd habit of having about a 10-15 stretch almost every game where they just look like a completely different team in all phases. Offense looks lost and starts turning it over, can't win faceoffs, clearing becomes a total adventure and defensively they can't stop anything. The issue is how long it will last and when. Against Duke it was the 1st quarter and then they snapped out of it but it was to late. Against UVA the game before it was late 3rd to mid 4th but then they snapped out of it. Cornell it was the entire 4th quarter. It's bizarre but happens nearly every game.

If I was a Cuse fan the one thing that would drive me nuts is all the flare on offense. When it works it’s cool and makes the rounds on social media, but when it doesn’t it looks brutal. They will throw a BTB to the crease early in shot clock for turnover, when you are thinking they need a long offensive possession to give the defense a breather.

[JeremyCuse]

Towson over Cuse, Michigan over Denver, Princeton over Maryland, Penn State over Georgetown, Saint Josephs over UVa would not surprise me.

Slightly less probably but Lehigh over a dumpster fire Hopkins offense wouldnt shock me either.

Hah !
Dumpster fire !

On the other hand, though - just about every team is a dumpster fire in one way or another.

Seriously. Does any team besides Notre Dame and Duke not have serious, serious flaws? And sometimes Duke just doesn't show up, though it seems they're locked in and playing to their full potential right now and I expect that to continue.

I would add Cuse next to Duke. I dont see a fatal flaw there.

PSU is dangerous, if they learn how to face off
Hopkins is dangerous, if the offense reverts to about a month ago
UVA is dangerous, if the defense finds discipline
Princeton is dangerous, if they can continue to win face offs

Cuse's fatal flaw is that they lose their head at times and can't seem to string great performances together. I honestly think they should be on red alert against a gritty Towson team. Weisshaar is the best middie in the country IMO, and if Constantinides gets the better of Kohn at the X watch out. Having said that, I think the draw worked in their favor for a Final Four run; Towson is a tough team, but overall it's still a quadrant with three potential opponents that Cuse could still get by on an off day whether it's in the first round or the QF.

Cuse shows up in every game. They have lost by 1,1,1,2,and 5. They can have mental gaffes, but they will always compete. You cant say that about Duke. Mark might be the key. Of the top goalies, he maybe the most inconsistent. When he is on, watch out

Respectfully disagree. A 5 goal loss is not showing up, and that scoreline flattered them anyways. Game before that was a good showing against UVA. Then a one goal win against a meh UNC squad before that where they nearly threw away a big lead. Before that it was that Cornell game where they again pulled a Jekyll and Hyde performance. Honestly upon further inspection "not stringing consecutive great performances together" is putting it too lightly; they can't consistently put four great quarters together. They vacillate between red hot and ice cold, and that's not a recipe for success in May when the pressure turns way up and cold spells can turn into avalanches.

I think that Duke game was more about coaching, than showing up. Duke switched up their line-up and it was 9-2 after 1Q.. Fought back to 11-7, before Duke went on a run to end it. That was not a lack of effort, they were not prepared. I do agree that they seem to have a quarter every game , where they fall asleep. Mistake prone/lack of IQ maybe the flaw, but I dont see lack of effort there (like Duke at times).

Your correct on the issue of consistency within the game itself. I have actually pointed this out on several occasions over at syracusefan, this team has a very odd habit of having about a 10-15 stretch almost every game where they just look like a completely different team in all phases. Offense looks lost and starts turning it over, can't win faceoffs, clearing becomes a total adventure and defensively they can't stop anything. The issue is how long it will last and when. Against Duke it was the 1st quarter and then they snapped out of it but it was to late. Against UVA the game before it was late 3rd to mid 4th but then they snapped out of it. Cornell it was the entire 4th quarter. It's bizarre but happens nearly every game.

If I was a Cuse fan the one thing that would drive me nuts is all the flare on offense. When it works it’s cool and makes the rounds on social media, but when it doesn’t it looks brutal. They will throw a BTB to the crease early in shot clock for turnover, when you are thinking they need a long offensive possession to give the defense a breather.

Ya it can be frustrating when they try and get fancy for no reason especially in a close game late but that's the trade off of the free flowing offense, gonna be some games where they seem to try and go for the highlight goal vs just putting the ball in the back of the net. I will say they have cleaned it up a bit from earlier in the year so you don't see a lot of the BTB passes to the crease but you may see a threaded passes where Thomson shoots a twister off balance versus just catching and shooting or Hiltz tries to skip pass over 3 dudes versus just letting it rip etc.