2024 Bracketology

[AreaLax]

IL has Penn over PSU

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ate-/63306

Patrick Stevens has PSU over Penn
Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Princeton

Towson, Md.

(5) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(4) Johns Hopkins vs. CAA/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
(6) Denver vs. BIG TEN/Michigan

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(2) Duke vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Last three included: Denver, Maryland, Penn State
First three on the outside: Penn, Cornell, Yale
Moving in: Michigan
Moving out: Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Big East (2)

[coda]

IL has Penn over PSU

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ate-/63306

Patrick Stevens has PSU over Penn
Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Princeton

Towson, Md.

(5) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(4) Johns Hopkins vs. CAA/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
(6) Denver vs. BIG TEN/Michigan

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(2) Duke vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Last three included: Denver, Maryland, Penn State
First three on the outside: Penn, Cornell, Yale
Moving in: Michigan
Moving out: Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Big East (2)

Funny. That would be a shame. Most think PSU is the best Big 10 team and they would leave them out and take 2 others. That would prove the committee doesn’t watch lacrosse

[10stone5]

IL has Penn over PSU

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ate-/63306

Patrick Stevens has PSU over Penn
Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Princeton

Towson, Md.

(5) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(4) Johns Hopkins vs. CAA/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
(6) Denver vs. BIG TEN/Michigan

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(2) Duke vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Last three included: Denver, Maryland, Penn State
First three on the outside: Penn, Cornell, Yale
Moving in: Michigan
Moving out: Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Big East (2)

On IL ...

... which I don’t have a problem with since Penn State tanked
so badly last night.

Hopefully Tambroni and his staff learn their lesson.
Its unfortunate for that terrific TJ Malone.

[wgdsr]

Is there any case for Penn or someone else to sneak in over Maryland? I don't think its likely, but maybe given how poorly Maryland has looked.

I also don't think Albany will be going to Cuse, but I think its a non-zero possibility. It eliminates travel cost, which is the #1 of NCAA seeding, lest we all forget every year.

It would have to be Penn State. They have the lowest RPI among Big 10 at-large teams and are coming of a complete disaster

If you are saying Penn State on the bubble versus Maryland, I think both are in anyway. If you are saying Penn compared to Penn State, that is probably right, but just curious if there is any scenario where Maryland is the odd team out.

Some predictions accounting for the #1 hidden NCAA rule regarding costs (again, ignoring actual criteria to account for $$$):

1. Play in will be Sacred Heart versus St Joes in order to have Albany play Cuse in round 1. It also saves travel for the play in.

2. Utah is definitely going to Denver. It is still a flight, but just barely. If not, it will be MIchigan/Denver, but I think Utah is more likely.

i believe it's the lowest 2 rpi aqs. it won't be st joe's.

penn is a possibility. remote, but non-zero.

[coda]

IL has Penn over PSU

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ate-/63306

Patrick Stevens has PSU over Penn
Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Princeton

Towson, Md.

(5) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(4) Johns Hopkins vs. CAA/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
(6) Denver vs. BIG TEN/Michigan

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(2) Duke vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Last three included: Denver, Maryland, Penn State
First three on the outside: Penn, Cornell, Yale
Moving in: Michigan
Moving out: Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Big East (2)

On IL ...

... which I don’t have a problem with since Penn State tanked
so badly last night.

Hopefully Tambroni and his staff learn their lesson.
Its unfortunate for that terrific TJ Malone.

I am not sure PSU tanked. Michigan won 79% of face offs, not a shocker. They saved 75% of shots, complete shocker. Fracyon had his worst game as a goalie. Just one of those days. It’s not like Penn had a strong showing today losing by 7

[LaxPundit07]

Couldn’t you make the argument Cornell has a better resume than Penn, Penn State, and Princeton?

Cornell has a higher SOS than the other three. Has a top five win against the likely tournament 2 seed (Syracuse), the other three have no top 5 wins. They have a 6-10 win against Princeton head to head. The other three have one 6-10 win; Penn State over Maryland, which isn’t as quality as the Syracuse win for Cornell. Cornell also has no “non top 20 losses”. The other three each have one (Princeton to Brown, Penn State to Colgate, and Penn to Carolina).

If you group them together to come up with the final at large bid, how does Cornell not get in?

Don’t roast me, asking honestly here. What am I missing?

[10stone5]

IL has Penn over PSU

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ate-/63306

Patrick Stevens has PSU over Penn
Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Princeton

Towson, Md.

(5) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(4) Johns Hopkins vs. CAA/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
(6) Denver vs. BIG TEN/Michigan

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(2) Duke vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Last three included: Denver, Maryland, Penn State
First three on the outside: Penn, Cornell, Yale
Moving in: Michigan
Moving out: Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Big East (2)

On IL ...

... which I don’t have a problem with since Penn State tanked
so badly last night.

Hopefully Tambroni and his staff learn their lesson.
Its unfortunate for that terrific TJ Malone.

I am not sure PSU tanked. Michigan won 79% of face offs, not a shocker. They saved 75% of shots, complete shocker. Fracyon had his worst game as a goalie. Just one of those days. It’s not like Penn had a strong showing today losing by 7

They tanked.
Penn State was barely awake the entire game.
16-4 is pretty much the definition of tanking.

More importantly, learn the lesson, don't get overconfident, don't assume anything when it comes to the NCAA,
especially for a team that has "only" been to six tournaments.

And, they may still get that last at large.

[coda]

IL has Penn over PSU

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ate-/63306

Patrick Stevens has PSU over Penn
Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Princeton

Towson, Md.

(5) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(4) Johns Hopkins vs. CAA/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
(6) Denver vs. BIG TEN/Michigan

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(2) Duke vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Last three included: Denver, Maryland, Penn State
First three on the outside: Penn, Cornell, Yale
Moving in: Michigan
Moving out: Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Big East (2)

On IL ...

... which I don’t have a problem with since Penn State tanked
so badly last night.

Hopefully Tambroni and his staff learn their lesson.
Its unfortunate for that terrific TJ Malone.

I am not sure PSU tanked. Michigan won 79% of face offs, not a shocker. They saved 75% of shots, complete shocker. Fracyon had his worst game as a goalie. Just one of those days. It’s not like Penn had a strong showing today losing by 7

They tanked.
Penn State was barely awake the entire game.
16-4 is pretty much the definition of tanking.

More importantly, learn the lesson, don't get overconfident, don't assume anything when it comes to the NCAA,
especially for a team that has "only" been to six tournaments.

And, they may still get that last at large.

They beat Maryland 19-9 on Thursday. Funny, how short memories are. Hard to leave PSU out and seed Maryland, that just doesn’t make sense

[NYlax222]

Very fair question re: Cornell. Obviously, H2H not flattering vs. PSU or Penn. and then Princeton grabs AQ. Based on 'eye test' and comparing schedules, I'd be more concerned about playing Cornell than Princeton or Penn in the tourney. Saw them play ND, and super impressed.

[LaxPundit07]

Very fair question re: Cornell. Obviously, H2H not flattering vs. PSU or Penn. and then Princeton grabs AQ. Based on 'eye test' and comparing schedules, I'd be more concerned about playing Cornell than Princeton or Penn in the tourney. Saw them play ND, and super impressed.

I watched Big Red play multiple times this year and felt like they could play Memorial Day weekend. After they lost Friday I assumed they were dead. But seeing the comparison between other bubble teams….and I feel that way even more so after seeing seeded teams like Duke and UVA roll over and play dead this weekend. You think Notre Dame would rather play Cornell tomorrow? Or Duke/UVA?

[rolldodge]

Couldn’t you make the argument Cornell has a better resume than Penn, Penn State, and Princeton?

Cornell has a higher SOS than the other three. Has a top five win against the likely tournament 2 seed (Syracuse), the other three have no top 5 wins. They have a 6-10 win against Princeton head to head. The other three have one 6-10 win; Penn State over Maryland, which isn’t as quality as the Syracuse win for Cornell. Cornell also has no “non top 20 losses”. The other three each have one (Princeton to Brown, Penn State to Colgate, and Penn to Carolina).

If you group them together to come up with the final at large bid, how does Cornell not get in?

Don’t roast me, asking honestly here. What am I missing?

I think this is a good analysis. SOS, wins versus the top tiers, and "bad losses" are part of the criteria. Straight RPI (which might be pushing pundits toward PSU) is not. I would not be surprised if this happened.

[coda]

Very fair question re: Cornell. Obviously, H2H not flattering vs. PSU or Penn. and then Princeton grabs AQ. Based on 'eye test' and comparing schedules, I'd be more concerned about playing Cornell than Princeton or Penn in the tourney. Saw them play ND, and super impressed.

That is Cornell’s issue. The 2 losses to Penn make it near impossible to put Cornell in over Penn. You also have a 20-9 loss to Penn State

[rolldodge]

Very fair question re: Cornell. Obviously, H2H not flattering vs. PSU or Penn. and then Princeton grabs AQ. Based on 'eye test' and comparing schedules, I'd be more concerned about playing Cornell than Princeton or Penn in the tourney. Saw them play ND, and super impressed.

That is Cornell’s issue. The 2 losses to Penn make it near impossible to put Cornell in over Penn

Head to head only comes into consideration after the other criteria are analyzed. The committee might decide they don't need to go there. Margin of loss is not considered.

[LaxPundit07]

Very fair question re: Cornell. Obviously, H2H not flattering vs. PSU or Penn. and then Princeton grabs AQ. Based on 'eye test' and comparing schedules, I'd be more concerned about playing Cornell than Princeton or Penn in the tourney. Saw them play ND, and super impressed.

That is Cornell’s issue. The 2 losses to Penn make it near impossible to put Cornell in over Penn

Head to head only comes into consideration after the other criteria are analyzed. The committee might decide they don't need to go there. Margin of loss is not considered.

Cornell may want to stay near their tv tonight. I am starting to buy my own argument here. Could they actually be in?

[veryoldgoose]

Very fair question re: Cornell. Obviously, H2H not flattering vs. PSU or Penn. and then Princeton grabs AQ. Based on 'eye test' and comparing schedules, I'd be more concerned about playing Cornell than Princeton or Penn in the tourney. Saw them play ND, and super impressed.

That is Cornell’s issue. The 2 losses to Penn make it near impossible to put Cornell in over Penn

Head to head only comes into consideration after the other criteria are analyzed. The committee might decide they don't need to go there. Margin of loss is not considered.

Cornell may want to stay near their tv tonight. I am starting to buy my own argument here. Could they actually be in?

I'm sold on Cornell. Is there an argument for Penn State and Cornell in, Maryland out? I'm not even a Maryland hater, I just think they would be the least deserving of the teams in the field based on play, attitude on the field, and the eye test. Obviously not officialy criteria ha!

[Lax Mouse]

Very fair question re: Cornell. Obviously, H2H not flattering vs. PSU or Penn. and then Princeton grabs AQ. Based on 'eye test' and comparing schedules, I'd be more concerned about playing Cornell than Princeton or Penn in the tourney. Saw them play ND, and super impressed.

I watched Big Red play multiple times this year and felt like they could play Memorial Day weekend. After they lost Friday I assumed they were dead. But seeing the comparison between other bubble teams….and I feel that way even more so after seeing seeded teams like Duke and UVA roll over and play dead this weekend. You think Notre Dame would rather play Cornell tomorrow? Or Duke/UVA?

Not sure if ND is thinking there's anyone they wouldn't want to play . . . they're looking good vs everyone. Super confident going into the NCAAs.

Committee looks at metrics from the whole season. Recency plays no part in it.

[Wheels]

IL has Penn over PSU

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ate-/63306

Patrick Stevens has PSU over Penn
Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Princeton

Towson, Md.

(5) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(4) Johns Hopkins vs. CAA/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
(6) Denver vs. BIG TEN/Michigan

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(2) Duke vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Last three included: Denver, Maryland, Penn State
First three on the outside: Penn, Cornell, Yale
Moving in: Michigan
Moving out: Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Big East (2)

I trust Patrick more than any other prognosticator out there.

If his bracket ends up being pretty close, Notre Dame is going to have a helluva run to make. Penn State has a goalie that can steal game, an elite defense, and an elite offense. It's only their face-offs that are a weakness. And the you get the potential winner of Hopkins vs UVA? Hopkins' defense is no joke, and they can win face-offs. They have a goalie who's played in the NCAA Championship game before. Or UVA...a real head scratching team at this point. They have so much talent all over the field. I guess it depends on which Matthew Nunes show up.

But still. There are no easy games after they curb stomp SHU or Albany.

[jersey shore lax]

I know this would never happen but I would give all the AQ's a pass through to next weekend and the lowest at large play in the play in games. Reward the conference champs

[rolldodge]

Very fair question re: Cornell. Obviously, H2H not flattering vs. PSU or Penn. and then Princeton grabs AQ. Based on 'eye test' and comparing schedules, I'd be more concerned about playing Cornell than Princeton or Penn in the tourney. Saw them play ND, and super impressed.

That is Cornell’s issue. The 2 losses to Penn make it near impossible to put Cornell in over Penn

Head to head only comes into consideration after the other criteria are analyzed. The committee might decide they don't need to go there. Margin of loss is not considered.

Cornell may want to stay near their tv tonight. I am starting to buy my own argument here. Could they actually be in?

I'm sold on Cornell. Is there an argument for Penn State and Cornell in, Maryland out? I'm not even a Maryland hater, I just think they would be the least deserving of the teams in the field based on play, attitude on the field, and the eye test. Obviously not officialy criteria ha!

I don't think there is any scenario that Maryland doesn't get in. I don't even think there is a scenario where they don't get a seed although they could fall anywhere from 5 to 8.

[coda]

IL has Penn over PSU

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ate-/63306

Patrick Stevens has PSU over Penn
Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Princeton

Towson, Md.

(5) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(4) Johns Hopkins vs. CAA/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
(6) Denver vs. BIG TEN/Michigan

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(2) Duke vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Last three included: Denver, Maryland, Penn State
First three on the outside: Penn, Cornell, Yale
Moving in: Michigan
Moving out: Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Big East (2)

I trust Patrick more than any other prognosticator out there.

If his bracket ends up being pretty close, Notre Dame is going to have a helluva run to make. Penn State has a goalie that can steal game, an elite defense, and an elite offense. It's only their face-offs that are a weakness. And the you get the potential winner of Hopkins vs UVA? Hopkins' defense is no joke, and they can win face-offs. They have a goalie who's played in the NCAA Championship game before. Or UVA...a real head scratching team at this point. They have so much talent all over the field. I guess it depends on which Matthew Nunes show up.

But still. There are no easy games after they curb stomp SHU or Albany.

Good goalies always scare me. You don’t want to play Fracyon, Gianforcaro, or Carroll in a 1 game winner take all. Those guys can steal a game, when they are on. Irelan almost gave Cornell a NC, when he got hot. Though I don’t put him in the same category as the other 3