2024 Pool C

[ah23]

From the NCAA's Division III Lacrosse Report:

"The primary criteria for ranking and selection (all contests leading up to NCAA Championships); all criteria will be evaluated (not listed in preferential order):
• Won-lost percentage against Division III opponents;
• Division III head-to-head competition;
• Results versus common Division III opponents;
• Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the final rankings and the ranking preceding the final rankings. Conference postseason contests are included;
• Division III strength of schedule."

At least according to the NCAA, there is no single criteria that is most/least important. They all matter.

[pcowlax]

From the NCAA's Division III Lacrosse Report:

"The primary criteria for ranking and selection (all contests leading up to NCAA Championships); all criteria will be evaluated (not listed in preferential order):
• Won-lost percentage against Division III opponents;
• Division III head-to-head competition;
• Results versus common Division III opponents;
• Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the final rankings and the ranking preceding the final rankings. Conference postseason contests are included;
• Division III strength of schedule."

At least according to the NCAA, there is no single criteria that is most/least important. They all matter.

Yes, the committee looks at these factors and picks the teams. There is no formula or score, it’s is subjective but based on these objective factors. Fortunately for Union, things such as margins in losses aren’t factored. They are a very interesting case, getting absolutely blown out of two games. There are going to be a few irate fan bases Sunday night.

[Laxattackjack]

Say all the favorites (Dickinson, Lynchburg, Wes) win - who are your 10 at large then? Putting muhlenburg or roanoke over swat may be the worst take I've ever seen

if those teams win, i am going with
Tufts
RPI
st Lawrence
union
cnu
w&l
amherst
middlebury
gettysburg

roanoke over swat. things close. they both have weak schedules. roanoke has more regional (4) wins then swarthmore (2)

[LL_Insider]

Here's my 1st draft:

Obviously a lot could still change within the next 36 hours with teams like Babson, Dickinson, Bowdoin vs. Midd, Hamilton running the table, etc.

- Relevant AQ Assumptions:
- Nescac -> Wesleyan
- LL -> RIT
- CLC (via Pool B) -> Salisbury
- NEWMAC -> Babson
- Centennial -> Dickinson
- ODAC -> Lynchburg

- Pool C:
- Locks (3): Tufts, RPI, SLU
- Most likely In (4): W&L, CNU, Bowdoin, Union
- Last 3 In: Amherst, Swat, Middlebury -> Need Nescac champ appearance
- First 2 out : Roanoke, Williams
- Potential “bid stealer”: Hamilton, Babson
- AQ or Bust: St. John Fisher, Geneseo, Stevens, Grove City, Centre, RMC, Nazareth, Kenyon, Elmhurst, Hope, IWU, Colorado College (not sure if they have a conference AQ to win) Springfield, WNE, Stevenson, Gettysburg, Endicott

[hooray]

Say all the favorites (Dickinson, Lynchburg, Wes) win - who are your 10 at large then? Putting muhlenburg or roanoke over swat may be the worst take I've ever seen

if those teams win, i am going with
Tufts
RPI
st Lawrence
union
cnu
w&l
amherst
middlebury
gettysburg

roanoke over swat. things close. they both have weak schedules. roanoke has more regional (4) wins then swarthmore (2)

Seriously could not disagree more... Roanoke's best win is Randolph macon and has lost to teams Swat beat. Swat has better wins, equally as bad losses. Sure more regional wins for Roanoke, but a region where Centre, HS, and Sewanee are in the top 7 can't even compare to Region 3 with Salisbury, CNU, Dickinson, York, Gburg, Stevens, Muhlenberg - let's be real

[hooray]

Here's my 1st draft:

Obviously a lot could still change within the next 36 hours with teams like Babson, Dickinson, Bowdoin vs. Midd, Hamilton running the table, etc.

- Relevant AQ Assumptions:
- Nescac -> Wesleyan
- LL -> RIT
- CLC (via Pool B) -> Salisbury
- NEWMAC -> Babson
- Centennial -> Dickinson
- ODAC -> Lynchburg

- Pool C:
- Locks (3): Tufts, RPI, SLU
- Most likely In (4): W&L, CNU, Bowdoin, Union
- Last 3 In: Amherst, Swat, Middlebury -> Need Nescac champ appearance
- First 2 out : Roanoke, Williams
- Potential “bid stealer”: Hamilton, Babson
- AQ or Bust: St. John Fisher, Geneseo, Stevens, Grove City, Centre, RMC, Nazareth, Kenyon, Elmhurst, Hope, IWU, Colorado College (not sure if they have a conference AQ to win) Springfield, WNE, Stevenson, Gettysburg, Endicott

This is correct

[DTL94]

[SouthieLax]

The difference is last year they made it to the championship game. Also the ODAC #1 seed and NESCAC #1 seed didn't lose in the semis and quarters last year.

When they pick teams for the tournament they don't look at USILA and see what top 20 teams didn't get an AQ. It's all about the regionally ranked wins first then SOS then in division win percentage

I believe primary criteria are
1) win %
2) ranked wins
3) SOS

Just keeping on the Swarthmore example with this criteria
1) 14-2 record, 88% win rate
2) Wins over Dickinson (at the time #5), Gettysburg (at the time #9), loss to Amherst (at the time #14)
3) Weak out of conference, but 8-0 in conference -- by far weakest area here is SOS but seems like least important criteria

I think they are on the bubble absolutely, but on the inside looking out assuming we see minimal upsets this weekend

SOS is the most important part of the Criteria…by far.

That’s obviously not true. Wins outrank SOS by a landslide e.g why York isn’t in contention.

Incorrect. While it’s true as others have said that they look at all the criteria, think of winning % more as a threshold part of the criteria. Yes, York is likely not on the big board but they are 10-8 and lack big wins. The Committee will look much more favorably on a team that’s 11-7, with a bunch of regionally ranked opponents and a strong SOS than a team that’s 14-2 with a weak SOS.

[pcowlax]

Say all the favorites (Dickinson, Lynchburg, Wes) win - who are your 10 at large then? Putting muhlenburg or roanoke over swat may be the worst take I've ever seen

if those teams win, i am going with
Tufts
RPI
st Lawrence
union
cnu
w&l
amherst
middlebury
gettysburg

roanoke over swat. things close. they both have weak schedules. roanoke has more regional (4) wins then swarthmore (2)

Seriously could not disagree more... Roanoke's best win is Randolph macon and has lost to teams Swat beat. Swat has better wins, equally as bad losses. Sure more regional wins for Roanoke, but a region where Centre, HS, and Sewanee are in the top 7 can't even compare to Region 3 with Salisbury, CNU, Dickinson, York, Gburg, Stevens, Muhlenberg - let's be real

You are of course right that those regions are not close in strength and RR wins in one are much more impressive than the other. Unfortunately, that doesn’t matter. Not sure if you are new to this but the tournament definitely is not the best 38 teams. I don’t think Gettysburg are getting in at large. No way with Williams this year. As I have said, there are factors they consider but it’s not a mathematical formula. It has happened that a team with fewer RR than another gets in if their record and SOS is better. Just playing tough schedule though doesn’t cut it if you don’t have RR wins. Roanoke has, for now, 4 RR wins but agree that their schedule is very weak and at the national level have beaten no one of note. Some others (Amherst, Midd, Union) have much worse win percentage but much better SOS and comparable number of RR wins. Very hard to say this year.

[Laxattackjack]

Say all the favorites (Dickinson, Lynchburg, Wes) win - who are your 10 at large then? Putting muhlenburg or roanoke over swat may be the worst take I've ever seen

if those teams win, i am going with
Tufts
RPI
st Lawrence
union
cnu
w&l
amherst
middlebury
gettysburg

roanoke over swat. things close. they both have weak schedules. roanoke has more regional (4) wins then swarthmore (2)

Seriously could not disagree more... Roanoke's best win is Randolph macon and has lost to teams Swat beat. Swat has better wins, equally as bad losses. Sure more regional wins for Roanoke, but a region where Centre, HS, and Sewanee are in the top 7 can't even compare to Region 3 with Salisbury, CNU, Dickinson, York, Gburg, Stevens, Muhlenberg - let's be real

You are of course right that those regions are not close in strength and RR wins in one are much more impressive than the other. Unfortunately, that doesn’t matter. Not sure if you are new to this but the tournament definitely is not the best 38 teams. I don’t think Gettysburg are getting in at large. No way with Williams this year. As I have said, there are factors they consider but it’s not a mathematical formula. It has happened that a team with fewer RR than another gets in if their record and SOS is better. Just playing tough schedule though doesn’t cut it if you don’t have RR wins. Roanoke has, for now, 4 RR wins but agree that their schedule is very weak and at the national level have beaten no one of note. Some others (Amherst, Midd, Union) have much worse win percentage but much better SOS and comparable number of RR wins. Very hard to say this year.

definitely more factors play. otherwise, york with 2 regions wins, and a tougher schedule, would get in over swarthmore.
i am sticking with my predictions. Noke with 3 or 4 regional wins. amherst, union, and middlebury also have 3 or 4. swarthmore will only have 2. weak OOC schedule is going to hurt them. bowdoin in the same boat. they must win today or they end the season with only 2 regional wins.

[CentennialPundit]

Anyone recall how the last set of regional rankings work? Is there one released tomorrow?

[Nescac12001]

Say all the favorites (Dickinson, Lynchburg, Wes) win - who are your 10 at large then? Putting muhlenburg or roanoke over swat may be the worst take I've ever seen

if those teams win, i am going with
Tufts
RPI
st Lawrence
union
cnu
w&l
amherst
middlebury
gettysburg

roanoke over swat. things close. they both have weak schedules. roanoke has more regional (4) wins then swarthmore (2)

Amherst and Midd in over Bowdoin seems crazy to me

[CentennialPundit]

Say all the favorites (Dickinson, Lynchburg, Wes) win - who are your 10 at large then? Putting muhlenburg or roanoke over swat may be the worst take I've ever seen

if those teams win, i am going with
Tufts
RPI
st Lawrence
union
cnu
w&l
amherst
middlebury
gettysburg

roanoke over swat. things close. they both have weak schedules. roanoke has more regional (4) wins then swarthmore (2)

Amherst and Midd in over Bowdoin seems crazy to me

There’s no way Gettysburg gets in without winning chip.

[balderdash]

Bullets: 5-5 vs RRO's , 2 unranked losses, 1 avenged in the tournament, with york faltering maybe only 1 non-rro loss which was avenged in the tournament, average w/l%, high SOS.

Garnet: 2-2 vs RRO's, maybe 3-2 w/ york faltering (muhlenberg). Great w/l%, average sos .

If the committee had to pick between the 2 of them, how could they not look at the head to head at the end of the season...

[CentennialPundit]

Bullets: 5-5 vs RRO's , 2 unranked losses, 1 avenged in the tournament, with york faltering maybe only 1 non-rro loss which was avenged in the tournament, average w/l%, high SOS.

Garnet: 2-2 vs RRO's, maybe 3-2 w/ york faltering (muhlenberg). Great w/l%, average sos .

If the committee had to pick between the 2 of them, how could they not look at the head to head at the end of the season... not that it's criteria, but the resumes are kind of similar and not entirely comparable, how do they not look at the latest HTH result. It's human nature even if it's not part of the criteria explicitly.

I would guess a 10-7 record rules them out regardless of quality wins (also where are you getting 5-5 vs RRO for gburg)

[Laxfan1414]

Bullets: 5-5 vs RRO's , 2 unranked losses, 1 avenged in the tournament, with york faltering maybe only 1 non-rro loss which was avenged in the tournament, average w/l%, high SOS.

Garnet: 2-2 vs RRO's, maybe 3-2 w/ york faltering (muhlenberg). Great w/l%, average sos .

If the committee had to pick between the 2 of them, how could they not look at the head to head at the end of the season... not that it's criteria, but the resumes are kind of similar and not entirely comparable, how do they not look at the latest HTH result. It's human nature even if it's not part of the criteria explicitly.

I would guess a 10-7 record rules them out regardless of quality wins (also where are you getting 5-5 vs RRO for gburg)

10-7 doesn’t override regionally ranked wins. Teams regularly make it in with similar w/l records if they have the regionally ranked wins to back it up

[CentennialPundit]

Bullets: 5-5 vs RRO's , 2 unranked losses, 1 avenged in the tournament, with york faltering maybe only 1 non-rro loss which was avenged in the tournament, average w/l%, high SOS.

Garnet: 2-2 vs RRO's, maybe 3-2 w/ york faltering (muhlenberg). Great w/l%, average sos .

If the committee had to pick between the 2 of them, how could they not look at the head to head at the end of the season... not that it's criteria, but the resumes are kind of similar and not entirely comparable, how do they not look at the latest HTH result. It's human nature even if it's not part of the criteria explicitly.

I would guess a 10-7 record rules them out regardless of quality wins (also where are you getting 5-5 vs RRO for gburg)

10-7 doesn’t override regionally ranked wins. Teams regularly make it in with similar w/l records if they have the regionally ranked wins to back it up

My point is Gettysburg does not have 5 regionally ranked wins that I can count unless I’m missing something.

[balderdash]

I'm taking a stab at who would be in the final regional rankings but it might be 4-5 - I was off on Stevenson and unfortunately for Gettysburg york faltered.

Lynchburg
Salisbury
W&L
Denison
Amherst
Swat
Dickinson
Swat
Think Stevenson will get in there.

But now that I relook I do think that they will have a tough time especially having 2 losses to Dickinson. They could end up llike 4-6 vs rro's if they don't win it. You have a point.

[SixBySix]

Stevenson won't make the RR cut ahead of Gettysburg. They will win today or be 3-6 vRRO.

[Laxattackjack]

Stevenson won't make the RR cut ahead of Gettysburg. They will win today or be 3-6 vRRO.

who has stevenson beat to get 3 regional wins? i have them with two