THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[a fan]

That was my recollection, too.

UVa's performance from 1999-2010 is a really high bar to meet....that much is true.

We'll find out soon enough if expectations are too high. I'd imagine this is Petro's last season, barring a Final Four.

Have a great week, Homer.

[a fan]

Hop shot 29% as a team—30th in the country. Not good. But it was also just a hundredth of a percentage short of Yale's number. Does everyone on Yale need to work on their shooting too?

Yes! That said, they're also shooting 53 times a game. Hop is at 42.

Yesterday, Gaudet was 4 for 8. Morill 3 for 7. Brandau 4 for 10. Sessa 2 for 4. They're advancing.

I'm just pointing out a very glaring statistical problem. More importantly, I'd think--- a fixable problem.

[steel_hop]

AND even if all those things were somewhat to well addressed has anyone noticed that Penn State returns virtually everyone of consequence? How many goals are they going to score next year?

I agree with your entire post particularly on the fact you can't leave a guy hanging in the wind on recruiting. This is big boy sports 101. Even if Hopkins doesn't want to play it that way and we are talking about non-revenue sports, Hopkins is competing against other P5 schools that view poaching/negative recruiting as part of the job. If a team has a weakness in recruiting other teams go right at it. The lack of decision on Petro either way is way worse than him being around.

But, I want to hit on your PSU point. They are hitting on some ungodly number of shot percentage 45% or so. I looked at the end of the season at the highest shot percentage in D1 for the last 15-16 years and they are going to blow the next closest number out of the water - it was something like .405%. They are something like 7% better than the next closest team this year. The goal must look like a freaking soccer goal this year for the players but there is no doubt, to use a hockey term, a bit of puck luck. But goals that hit that ping the corner, miss the next year.

Regardless of what happens this year, they aren't going to hit at 45% next year and teams change over one year. Lots of things happen over a year. Take the 2007 Hopkins team, given all the pieces they had essentially everyone coming back the Peyers, Rabil, Evans Bocklet (only different was at goal). They should have dominated in 2008. But, they "struggled" the entire year facing the expectations of winning the title 2008 and lost in the championship game. Not saying PSU can do the same but you worry about teams in 2020 in 2020.

[steel_hop]

Hop shot 29% as a team—30th in the country. Not good. But it was also just a hundredth of a percentage short of Yale's number. Does everyone on Yale need to work on their shooting too?

Yes! That said, they're also shooting 53 times a game. Hop is at 42.

Yesterday, Gaudet was 4 for 8. Morill 3 for 7. Brandau 4 for 10. Sessa 2 for 4. They're advancing.

I'm just pointing out a very glaring statistical problem. More importantly, I'd think--- a fixable problem.

Here is the thing. Practice isn't taking a 15% shooter to 25% much less 30 or higher. You might get a little better but a poor shooter is a poor shooter. If you have crap mechanics, shooting at the goal for 10 minutes every day isn't really going to fix that. Even if you have good mechanics but just have poor aim, you are only marginally going to make it better. Sure, guys like Ryan Brown improved. But, generally, you either have it or your don't.

Think about this in basketball terms. Shaq was an awful free throw shooter. He practiced a ton, he had experts work with him. But, at the end of the day he still stunk.

[HopFan16]

Hop shot 29% as a team—30th in the country. Not good. But it was also just a hundredth of a percentage short of Yale's number. Does everyone on Yale need to work on their shooting too?

Yes! That said, they're also shooting 53 times a game. Hop is at 42.

Yesterday, Gaudet was 4 for 8. Morill 3 for 7. Brandau 4 for 10. Sessa 2 for 4. They're advancing.

I'm just pointing out a very glaring statistical problem. More importantly, I'd think--- a fixable problem.

Well, to put the trusty ol' optimist hat on for a brief moment:

Not counting guys who played small, part-time roles on offense this year (Zinn, Shilling, Stagnitta, etc.), 4 of the 7 returning major contributors on offense are over 30%, including two attackmen over 35%.

Smith - 46%
Baskin - 39%
Epstein - 36%
Concannon - 31%
Williams - 26%
Keogh - 17%
DeSimone - 11%

Forry Smith's 46% seems repeatable, especially if he plays more of an inside/crease finishing role in 2020. He shot 42% as a freshman. Epstein's 36% will probably remain in the ballpark or potentially get even better, based on his work ethic. Though considering his role in the offense and the number of shots he will take—anything north of 33% is quite good.

Keogh and DeSimone's numbers are obvious eyesores—no other way to put it, those simply have to improve. Luckily I think it's going to be hard for those numbers to get any worse. I'm assuming both guys are keenly aware of their shooting struggles this year and will put some work into remedying that. DeSimone shot 28% as a freshman—still not great but he's clearly capable of shooting much better than he did in '19.

Williams is who he is—I don't think he's ever going to be a great shooter but his second half of the season (with the exception of the ND game when he lost his fundamentals a bit and went to those sidearm shots) is some reason for optimism. Over the final 8 games he shot 36%—again, a good number for an attackman who takes a lot of shots.

51 already said this but this team needs another shooter or two or three—hopefully Owen Murphy can help there. I would love for Zinn to get to shoot more with his feet set on the wing. Could be lethal there...question is if he'll be given the chance.

[a fan]

My whole point was an optimistic one, thanks, hopfan16.

And sorry SteelHop, but for every Shaq example, I can give you 10 Larry Bird's who put in the work. Part of shooting too, is knowing when/where not to shoot. This is a fixable problem. And if it isn't, well, Hopkins won't make many Final Fours when two starting attackmen are at 25%.

It's a shooting gallery with the shot clock. Look how horrible the sv. pcg are now for this weekends goalies....and how many players were at 50% or higher. The stats are pretty mind blowing.

It's a new game, and it's all about canning the opportunities you get. And if you can't do that, you'll get blown off the field. And boy, goalies have become far less important, nearly overnight.

[DMac]

Zactly, and if Shaq had tried a different shot (UNDERHAND!!!!) he probably would have improved his FT shooting a whole lot.

[Homer]

UVa's performance from 1999-2010 is a really high bar to meet....that much is true.

We'll find out soon enough if expectations are too high. I'd imagine this is Petro's last season, barring a Final Four.

Have a great week, Homer.

No argument there! Thanks, a fan, same to you.

[DocBarrister]

My whole point was an optimistic one, thanks, hopfan16.

And sorry SteelHop, but for every Shaq example, I can give you 10 Larry Bird's who put in the work. Part of shooting too, is knowing when/where not to shoot. This is a fixable problem. And if it isn't, well, Hopkins won't make many Final Fours when two starting attackmen are at 25%.

It's a shooting gallery with the shot clock. Look how horrible the sv. pcg are now for this weekends goalies....and how many players were at 50% or higher. The stats are pretty mind blowing.

It's a new game, and it's all about canning the opportunities you get. And if you can't do that, you'll get blown off the field. And boy, goalies have become far less important, nearly overnight.

Shooting can be improved with practice and shooting technique can be taught through coaching.

Just one example ... during Starsia’s time at Virginia, the Cavaliers as a team were known for their technically proficient and effective overhand shooting. Coaches made a point of teaching and encouraging overhand shooting and changing levels.

Can make a difference. Just a matter of priorities and effort by the coaches and players.

DocBarrister

[molo]

I think a lot of the shooting technique work was attributed to an assistant who had been the head coach at Penn and is now an assistant in my home town. He was also associated with a couple of issues that may have contributed to the end of Starsia’s tenure.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Hop shot 29% as a team—30th in the country. Not good. But it was also just a hundredth of a percentage short of Yale's number. Does everyone on Yale need to work on their shooting too?

Yes! That said, they're also shooting 53 times a game. Hop is at 42.

Yesterday, Gaudet was 4 for 8. Morill 3 for 7. Brandau 4 for 10. Sessa 2 for 4. They're advancing.

I'm just pointing out a very glaring statistical problem. More importantly, I'd think--- a fixable problem.

Well, to put the trusty ol' optimist hat on for a brief moment:

Not counting guys who played small, part-time roles on offense this year (Zinn, Shilling, Stagnitta, etc.), 4 of the 7 returning major contributors on offense are over 30%, including two attackmen over 35%.

Smith - 46%
Baskin - 39%
Epstein - 36%
Concannon - 31%
Williams - 26%
Keogh - 17%
DeSimone - 11%

Forry Smith's 46% seems repeatable, especially if he plays more of an inside/crease finishing role in 2020. He shot 42% as a freshman. Epstein's 36% will probably remain in the ballpark or potentially get even better, based on his work ethic. Though considering his role in the offense and the number of shots he will take—anything north of 33% is quite good.

Keogh and DeSimone's numbers are obvious eyesores—no other way to put it, those simply have to improve. Luckily I think it's going to be hard for those numbers to get any worse. I'm assuming both guys are keenly aware of their shooting struggles this year and will put some work into remedying that. DeSimone shot 28% as a freshman—still not great but he's clearly capable of shooting much better than he did in '19.

Williams is who he is—I don't think he's ever going to be a great shooter but his second half of the season (with the exception of the ND game when he lost his fundamentals a bit and went to those sidearm shots) is some reason for optimism. Over the final 8 games he shot 36%—again, a good number for an attackman who takes a lot of shots.

51 already said this but this team needs another shooter or two or three—hopefully Owen Murphy can help there. I would love for Zinn to get to shoot more with his feet set on the wing. Could be lethal there...question is if he'll be given the chance.

Zinn can shoot the ball. I will be shocked if he is not on man up next year.

[pcowlax]

Always a good laugh following this page and its expectations. A glimmer of hope in the gloaming is Owen Murphy. He can be your Mac O’Keefe if you can draw a slide and get him open (looking at you Epstein). An absolute cannon from outside.

[pcowlax]

From IL recruiting page (take it for what you will).

“Murphy has a rocket of a shot and is great at getting separation side-to-side. If his feet don’t get him free, he unleashes a wicked jump shot. He is always looking to get a better angle to shoot and changes levels very well. Not a big body, but shifty and quick.

Best shooter at New England UA tryouts. ”

[jhu06]

The program through their social media has asked fans to fill out a survey on hopkinssports.com about the game day experience. they will be "awarding" or punishing depending on your point of view, one participant with 2020 season tickets. Petro did not do an end of season news conference and there's been no statement from the ad on the season (who has no trouble asking you for $$$) so this seems like your one chance to weigh in with homewood on your views of the season.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

The program through their social media has asked fans to fill out a survey on hopkinssports.com about the game day experience. they will be "awarding" or punishing depending on your point of view, one participant with 2020 season tickets. Petro did not do an end of season news conference and there's been no statement from the ad on the season (who has no trouble asking you for $$$) so this seems like your one chance to weigh in with homewood on your views of the season.

Awesome. Hope I can upload to the survey a certain cat download photo.

[DocBarrister]

Interesting ... Coach Petro retweeted this Lou Holtz quote about 19 hours ago:

Life is ten percent what happens to you and ninety percent how you respond to it. -Lou Holtz

DocBarrister

[LaxPundit07]

I have no association with Hop or the program. I am just a fan of the sport and admirer of the program.

A few thoughts:

1. If Hopkins moves on from Coach Petro, he will have another job before he makes it to his car in the parking lot. I liken his free agency to that of John Harbaugh's if the Ravens had moved on from him. Their resumes are incredibly impressive and programs around the country would line up to hire them.

2. If ya let him go, who ya gonna hire? Presumably you are hiring someone that can take the program back to a perennial Final Four/National Championship contender. Who can do that for you? And how much time does that person receive to do the job? (Remember-they commit kids so early you need 6 years to get a roster full of your own players.)

3. It is an apples to oranges comparison, but how does Janine still have a job if you are firing Petro? She has accomplished essentially nothing as the head coach there in terms of NCAA Tournament play. Do you do a "Penn State" circa 2010 and fire both men's and women's lacrosse coaches at the same time and revamp your lacrosse programs? It has certainly paid off for them (Tambroni and Doherty).

4. How are you determining that the Hopkins program is underachieving? Are you comparing it to other schools? If so, what schools are you using as the benchmark---what schools in D1 lacrosse have the similar academic profile, exist in a hotbed, etc.? And, once you can say what schools are equivalent, how have their programs faired over the past 9-10 years (the time period you have been unhappy with Petro).

5. Lastly, are you truly prepared to move on from a man that: is an alum, deeply cares about his players, has won two national championships, coached in four national championship games, and coached in seven final fours, and has an overall record of 205-89?

[QuakerSouth]

^^^ Excellent points. Very Hopkins/specific points/concerns/issues.

Now layer on the macro issues of how the lacrosse world has changed over the last 15-20 years. How recruiting has changed. The increase and democratization of talent. Growth, etc.

Until Hopkins discovers the "why" good players are choosing other schools over them, they will regress to the mean in terms of performance---like most every other team in the country does/has. And they haven't regressed to the mean yet. The last 10 years of Hopkins lacrosse have been pretty good by any standard---except for the expectations of the Hopkin's faithful.

[HopFan16]

This was predictable but certainly in hindsight it appears as though the shot clock did not suit Petro's coaching style, or at the very least he struggled to adapt to it. He was not alone in this but I don't think the new rules did this team any favors. At the risk of sounding like DocB, the defense is simply too passive for the pace of the game now. They are not fundamentally sound enough to sit back on their heels and just play out 80 second possessions. There will be a breakdown. A munchkin shortie will get beat. They simply must press out more, take some risks. His defense is designed to "allow shots your goalie can save" but the goalie couldn't save those shots and they were far too late making any change.

On the offensive end, maybe I was imagining things but it sure felt like it took the Jays 10 seconds longer to get their personnel on the field than it did most other teams. They weren't starting the offensive set in earnest until 40-50 seconds were left and by the time you do a few circle passes or isolate the middie you want against the shortie, you really only have 20-30 seconds to work for a good shot. This improved somewhat late in the season—aided by the faceoff unit getting the offensive more possessions to develop some rhythm—but it is something of a concern moving forward if Benson or whoever the OC is doesn't tweak the approach. I have long believed every single possession should start in Joey Epstein's stick behind the net. Let him truly, fully run the entire show. It's remarkable he scored as many points he did as a freshman considering. I don't know understand why so much of the offense relied on unreliable middies inverting and iso-dodging. It worked in one game—against Princeton—but it was a shaky strategy at best for most of the year and to my eye, by FAR the most threatening offensive set is Joey dodging from X, looking for cutters on the crease/skip passes to wing shooters.

The bright side is I do think this team has some guys that can run, and Benson let them when it was appropriate. Losing Kuhn will hurt in the transition game but Zinn, Hubler, Foley, Colwell, Reinson, Blondell—these guys can run around a little bit and if this incoming class of two-way/SSDM/wing players is to be believed then that certainly doesn't hurt the case to run more. If it were up to me, I would lean heavily into that. Not saying we should be Tiffany's 2016 Brown team but I think things can be loosened up more than they are—on both sides of the field. If Petro and Benson do return next year, I will be very interested to see what if anything they have learned from year 1 of the shot clock and how they will adjust. If they stay I think you've got to look yourself in the mirror and really think about whether your long-held philosophies are holding the team back in this new era.

[CrossCrease]

Hop shot 29% as a team—30th in the country. Not good. But it was also just a hundredth of a percentage short of Yale's number. Does everyone on Yale need to work on their shooting too?

Yes! That said, they're also shooting 53 times a game. Hop is at 42.
Yesterday, Gaudet was 4 for 8. Morill 3 for 7. Brandau 4 for 10. Sessa 2 for 4. They're advancing.

I'm just pointing out a very glaring statistical problem. More importantly, I'd think--- a fixable problem.

Well, to put the trusty ol' optimist hat on for a brief moment:

Not counting guys who played small, part-time roles on offense this year (Zinn, Shilling, Stagnitta, etc.), 4 of the 7 returning major contributors on offense are over 30%, including two attackmen over 35%.

Smith - 46%
Baskin - 39%
Epstein - 36%
Concannon - 31%
Williams - 26%
Keogh - 17%
DeSimone - 11%

Forry Smith's 46% seems repeatable, especially if he plays more of an inside/crease finishing role in 2020. He shot 42% as a freshman. Epstein's 36% will probably remain in the ballpark or potentially get even better, based on his work ethic. Though considering his role in the offense and the number of shots he will take—anything north of 33% is quite good.

Keogh and DeSimone's numbers are obvious eyesores—no other way to put it, those simply have to improve. Luckily I think it's going to be hard for those numbers to get any worse. I'm assuming both guys are keenly aware of their shooting struggles this year and will put some work into remedying that. DeSimone shot 28% as a freshman—still not great but he's clearly capable of shooting much better than he did in '19.

Williams is who he is—I don't think he's ever going to be a great shooter but his second half of the season (with the exception of the ND game when he lost his fundamentals a bit and went to those sidearm shots) is some reason for optimism. Over the final 8 games he shot 36%—again, a good number for an attackman who takes a lot of shots.

51 already said this but this team needs another shooter or two or three—hopefully Owen Murphy can help there. I would love for Zinn to get to shoot more with his feet set on the wing. Could be lethal there...question is if he'll be given the chance.

Zinn can shoot the ball. I will be shocked if he is not on man up next year.

I wouldn’t count on it. They didn’t even play their starting 3 attack on EMO. How many teams playing this weekend do that?