Johns Hopkins 2024

[jhu06]

Wins over Ohio State and (Penn State or Maryland) I think clinches a first round conference tournament bye now. Rutgers has games left against michigan maryland and penn state so every win they get is a win for hopkins now especially the last 2.

[51percentcorn]

It is too soon to really start playing the conference record/BIG tournament impact game. For example, you could have a scenario where Michigan wins out - Hopkins only loses to Maryland and there are 3 teams with 4-1 records. It is safe to say as the only undefeated team after 40% of the conference season Hopkins clearly controls its destiny. SO the Jays need to worry about Penn State and that's it. Other thoughts '06
- Counting on Rutgers to deliver with games at Michigan at Maryland and regular season finale with Penn State is a very long shot - - they'll give the Wolverines there best desperate effort one would think but that's a tough road
- Can one say this enough - yes the face-off percentage is low - it is a weakness - but you continually want to pretend that Mazzone and maybe Hawley made this incredible difference - .48 to .49. Rght now Hopkins is exactly 125 for 260 - 5 more face-offs and they would be currently higher than last year's average. The question was continually asked - where would we be without the graduating wings on the face-offs - answer is pretty much exactly where we were last year. And 2 other things - it's often not how many face-offs you win but WHEN and of course what you do with them. Hopkins won virtually every face-off in the first half against Notre Dame last year for all the good it did them. A key key face-off in that game was when Hopkins cut it to 7-6 and guess who won the ensuing face-offs? Callahan's work in the second half on Saturday was a big factor. The other thing - face-off stats can be misleading to a degree - take the face-off when the score was 2-1 Saturday - Dunn did a good job tieing up Wiefeldt who got the ball in his stick for a millisecond maybe very close to the ground when Smith I think created a further scrum and Hopkins won the ground ball. To my mind Hopkins won that face-off but Wiefeldt gets a win and a turnover I guess.
- Watched last night's game with interest. Haven't quite seen Maryland play such poor defense as they did in the first 20 minutes of that game. Messed up three pretty simple picks leading to doorstep goals. Even the very first goal was two people going with Malone and Ajax had no issues leaving 35 for an uncontested 6-8 yarder. Good pick communication and good decisions on when to support with Malone will be crucial. The buzzphrase for this year is clearly "Team A is creating offense for Team B" Hopkins needs to avoid this. I would be less inclined to slide - if the Nittany Lion middies beat you shake their hand.
- Fracyon - if there are 3 guys measurably better than him well....he can enter the portal and come to Hopkins if he wants
- Back to face-offs - going into last years game at German Tank stadium - it was thought Hopkins would have an advantage at the face-off dot because PSU's percentage was not high. As stated before, Hopkins got crushed 19-9 if I remember right and only 22 PSU turnovers got possessions more in line.
Probably can't afford a 30 handle on face-offs again

[LaxAllStars]

Top 20 April 1

https://laxallstars.com/quint-kessenich ... -1st-2024/

[HopFan16]

Top 20 April 1

https://laxallstars.com/quint-kessenich ... -1st-2024/

Your site stinks

[HopFan16]

- Can one say this enough - yes the face-off percentage is low - it is a weakness - but you continually want to pretend that Mazzone and maybe Hawley made this incredible difference - .48 to .49. Rght now Hopkins is exactly 125 for 260 - 5 more face-offs and they would be currently higher than last year's average. The question was continually asked - where would we be without the graduating wings on the face-offs - answer is pretty much exactly where we were last year. And 2 other things - it's often not how many face-offs you win but WHEN and of course what you do with them. Hopkins won virtually every face-off in the first half against Notre Dame last year for all the good it did them. A key key face-off in that game was when Hopkins cut it to 7-6 and guess who won the ensuing face-offs? Callahan's work in the second half on Saturday was a big factor. The other thing - face-off stats can be misleading to a degree - take the face-off when the score was 2-1 Saturday - Dunn did a good job tieing up Wiefeldt who got the ball in his stick for a millisecond maybe very close to the ground when Smith I think created a further scrum and Hopkins won the ground ball. To my mind Hopkins won that face-off but Wiefeldt gets a win and a turnover I guess.

Callahan wins a lot to himself (or loses them cleanly), which takes the wings out of the equation. Dunn turns pretty much everything into a GB scrum which is where our wings need to step up. It definitely feels like we lose more of those scraps than we win.

PSU's FO unit isn't very good either, but they rinsed us last year. So much of it is matchup-based or which guy happens to get in rhythm with the ref's whistle that day. Or you violate once and suddenly you're hesitant the rest of the half. It's a lot to put on one guy's shoulders but that's where the game is today. FOGOs are important. Callahan and/or Dunn has to have a solid day, keep the FO battle respectable. When they do that, the Jays are pretty hard to beat.

[51percentcorn]

An astute observation '16 - leads to some interesting stats - it certainly was obvious last year but globally there's no difference. These clearly aren't perfect stats but mildly interesting
In 2023 - Hokins is credited with winning 244 face-offs - Hopkins 3 face off men were credited with 133 ground balls which is 54%
In 2024 - Hopkins is credited with winning 125 face-offs - Hopkins 2 face-off men are credited with 68 ground balls which is also 54%

Specifically:
In 2023 Dunn took almost half of the face-offs 48% and his ground ball total equated to 50% of his wins
Narewski took 28% of the face-offs and his ground ball total was roughly 40% of his wins
Callahan took 22% of the face-offs and his ground bal total was almsot right on a very high 80% of his wins

In 2024 the numbers are different:
Callahan has taken 66% of the face-offs and his ground ball total is 55% o fhis wins
Dunn has taken 34% of the face-offs and his ground ball total is 53% of his wins

Obviously, this ignores violations and cannot account for when a wingman creates an opportunity for the face-off man to obtain a ground ball without winning it cleanly to himself (but the vice versa is true as well) and I am not trying to discount the contributions of Mazzone and Hawley but the end result is the end result - we are a global 45-50% face-off winning team and that hasn't really changed. As the Notre Dame game demonstrated - it's the timing of your wins and what you do with them that really counts.

[nyjay]

An astute observation '16 - leads to some interesting stats - it certainly was obvious last year but globally there's no difference. These clearly aren't perfect stats but mildly interesting
In 2023 - Hokins is credited with winning 244 face-offs - Hopkins 3 face off men were credited with 133 ground balls which is 54%
In 2024 - Hopkins is credited with winning 125 face-offs - Hopkins 2 face-off men are credited with 68 ground balls which is also 54%

Specifically:
In 2023 Dunn took almost half of the face-offs 48% and his ground ball total equated to 50% of his wins
Narewski took 28% of the face-offs and his ground ball total was roughly 40% of his wins
Callahan took 22% of the face-offs and his ground bal total was almsot right on a very high 80% of his wins

In 2024 the numbers are different:
Callahan has taken 66% of the face-offs and his ground ball total is 55% o fhis wins
Dunn has taken 34% of the face-offs and his ground ball total is 53% of his wins

Obviously, this ignores violations and cannot account for when a wingman creates an opportunity for the face-off man to obtain a ground ball without winning it cleanly to himself (but the vice versa is true as well) and I am not trying to discount the contributions of Mazzone and Hawley but the end result is the end result - we are a global 45-50% face-off winning team and that hasn't really changed. As the Notre Dame game demonstrated - it's the timing of your wins and what you do with them that really counts.

That's a fascinating post. Haven't seen anyone else do the "win to yourself" % before. Callahan's drop off is odd - I would I have though the ability to win to yourself would be a reasonably repeatable skill and would be indicative of the "best" f/o guys. Where are all the lax data folks? Ultimately, for Hop, I don't think they're going to win games at the dot. And as long as they stay above the 42-44% range, I don't think they're going to lose them there either.

[jhu06]

Top 20 April 1

https://laxallstars.com/quint-kessenich ... -1st-2024/

Your site stinks

Quint is exactly the sort of tart, quixotic, super weirdo a sport like lacrosse needs to give it some life. Like carc his game prep gets stale, the in game x's and o's don't remotely reflect his experience, and he's woefully behind this forum on a lot of stuff but he brings edge. Hockey misses Don Cherry and lacrosse without quint where you get a bunch of Syracuse homers talking to anodyne Jay Alters would be boring.

Since we're talking about May the conference needs to make sure the mens and womens Big ten conference tournament games aren't at the same time. Looks like they're the same days. Goofs.

[BlueJaySince1947]

So that's Q the K's schtick..." EDGE " ???

[norcalhop]

So that's Q the K's schtick..." EDGE " ???

It is April Fool's after all.

[nrthcrosslax]

I didn't catch it on the broadcast but who took Phillips' spot on EMO?

[HopFan16]

I didn't catch it on the broadcast but who took Phillips' spot on EMO?

Peshko

[jhu06]

I didn't catch it on the broadcast but who took Phillips' spot on EMO?

Peshko

They had Peshko there earlier in his career and didn't work out. I'd go with the young fella (as the legend Bill Raftery would say) Ayers who seems to be quick inside. HF16 criticized me here a month ago when I said it was type to yank Phillips. Maybe HIS GUY Marquis is next man up.

Also glad espn went back to calling it man up instead of person up.

Congrats to Beaudan. I thought he was a Petro guy but sounds like he was one of Pm's first gets to homewood.

https://bigten.org/news/2024/4/2/mens-l ... wards.aspx

We know about the terps on the list, the osu kid will be new to see.

[HopFan16]

They had Peshko there earlier in his career and didn't work out. I'd go with the young fella (as the legend Bill Raftery would say) Ayers who seems to be quick inside. HF16 criticized me here a month ago when I said it was type to yank Phillips. Maybe HIS GUY Marquis is next man up.

Even for you this is a truly unhinged level of gaslighting and rewriting history.

What you said following the UVA game was, and I quote, "I thought Stuart Phillips was close on man up- his looks he was getting were just a bit off." The problem with that, as I said at the time, was that he didn't even take a shot in that game and had yet to take one all season. So I had no clue then and still have no clue now what you were talking about. Then you followed that up by saying, "His moment is coming." You were the one who seemed rather optimistic, not me. In fact a week or two before that I floated the idea of giving someone else a shot on the inside on EMO after he mishandled a feed.

I hope for your sake that you have very early onset dementia because otherwise this is something only a legitimately insane person would say.

But, yes, I would not mind Ayers in there either, as I've said numerous times. The Marquis ship, for this year at least, has probably sailed.

[norcalhop]

They had Peshko there earlier in his career and didn't work out. I'd go with the young fella (as the legend Bill Raftery would say) Ayers who seems to be quick inside. HF16 criticized me here a month ago when I said it was type to yank Phillips. Maybe HIS GUY Marquis is next man up.

Even for you this is a truly unhinged level of gaslighting and rewriting history.

What you said following the UVA game was, and I quote, "I thought Stuart Phillips was close on man up- his looks he was getting were just a bit off." The problem with that, as I said at the time, was that he didn't even take a shot in that game and had yet to take one all season. So I had no clue then and still have no clue now what you were talking about. Then you followed that up by saying, "His moment is coming." You were the one who seemed rather optimistic, not me. In fact a week or two before that I floated the idea of giving someone else a shot on the inside on EMO after he mishandled a feed.

I hope for your sake that you have very early onset dementia because otherwise this is something only a legitimately insane person would say.

But, yes, I would not mind Ayers in there either, as I've said numerous times. The Marquis ship, for this year at least, has probably sailed.

Koleton randomly appeared in the Bryant game last year late. Never say never.

[jhu06]

50+ players and staff in that CLC lockerroom at the north end of campus, hope one of them watched the cornell game tonight and noticed the 2 lost possessions late because they didn't back up their !!! shots.

[51percentcorn]

So - I watched the replay of the game last night - fascinating game. My observation that I would like a certain head man and players in the CLC to understand is the following situation and is what I would label as the "We will finish the half or quarter NO WORSE than X-Y". IMO - here's the sequence that really changed the complexion of the game. A goal is scored in the second quarter with exactly 2 minutes remaining in the half and it is 14-8. Syracuse wins the ensuing face-off and in fact Cornell commits a technical foul violation for a man advantage so there is 1:59 seconds on the clock - shot clock is at 80 correct? So in that particular situation - my thought would be - I want the very very worst thing to happen is that Cornell has the ball with 39 seconds left - they have to go the full length of the field and play against a defense and an AA ranked goalie that has held them to either 5 or 6 even strength goals. That of course is not what happened - Spallina took a shot 6 seconds later and then Syracuse turned it over about 25 seconds later - leading to the Finn Thompson error on the 5 yard restart and Cornell walks away with 2 more goals before half time. 14-10 says We've got a chance - 14-8 is a much bigger hill. The counter to that argument is that Syracuse got the lead back up to 6 goals in the 3rd but I think the psychological impact of a 6 goal lead at half is much bigger. Then if you score the first 2 goals of the third period - you are up 8 and we aren't having this discussion. There are times to be creative and aggressive and times to manage that very fickle friend - the clock.

That Pat March thing was crazy - on the one hand - he wasn't wrong - the Cornell defensemen was offsides by a country mile and when he realized it and tiptoed back it looked like he was right in front of an offical. On the other hand - he made contact with an offical? There's the No No of all No Nos. They probably would have tolerated a ballistic verbal assault - they had to know they were wrong on the call and they have certainly reffed in front of Petro and Uncle Bill so they have heard every combo of mf'er and cs'er in the book.

[BigTurn]

So - I watched the replay of the game last night - fascinating game. My observation that I would like a certain head man and players in the CLC to understand is the following situation and is what I would label as the "We will finish the half or quarter NO WORSE than X-Y". IMO - here's the sequence that really changed the complexion of the game. A goal is scored in the second quarter with exactly 2 minutes remaining in the half and it is 14-8. Syracuse wins the ensuing face-off and in fact Cornell commits a technical foul violation for a man advantage so there is 1:59 seconds on the clock - shot clock is at 80 correct? So in that particular situation - my thought would be - I want the very very worst thing to happen is that Cornell has the ball with 39 seconds left - they have to go the full length of the field and play against a defense and an AA ranked goalie that has held them to either 5 or 6 even strength goals. That of course is not what happened - Spallina took a shot 6 seconds later and then Syracuse turned it over about 25 seconds later - leading to the Finn Thompson error on the 5 yard restart and Cornell walks away with 2 more goals before half time. 14-10 says We've got a chance - 14-8 is a much bigger hill. The counter to that argument is that Syracuse got the lead back up to 6 goals in the 3rd but I think the psychological impact of a 6 goal lead at half is much bigger. Then if you score the first 2 goals of the third period - you are up 8 and we aren't having this discussion. There are times to be creative and aggressive and times to manage that very fickle friend - the clock.

That Pat March thing was crazy - on the one hand - he wasn't wrong - the Cornell defensemen was offsides by a country mile and when he realized it and tiptoed back it looked like he was right in front of an offical. On the other hand - he made contact with an offical? There's the No No of all No Nos. They probably would have tolerated a ballistic verbal assault - they had to know they were wrong on the call and they have certainly reffed in front of Petro and Uncle Bill so they have heard every combo of mf'er and cs'er in the book.

In my opinion, the sequence you pointed out just before the half summarizes Cuse for the past 15 years: they lack discipline and do not play good situational lacrosse. Same thing happened at ND, where an avoidable turnover turns what could’ve been 8-6 at half to 10-5 ND.
Aside from the Pat March debacle, I’ve seen spallina take 3 unsportsmanlikes this year. That is just completely unacceptable for a team that wants make their first tournament in 3 years.

[HopFan16]

Two new bracketologies out today with very different assessments of the Jays.

One has us as the 4 seed vs. St. Joe's, a matchup with Virginia/Army in the quarters if we were to win that:
https://www.usalacrosse.com/magazine/co ... notre-dame

Other one has us down as the 8 seed seed vs. Penn, playing ND in the quarters again.
https://twitter.com/fieldystick/status/ ... 7200446727

Jays can do themselves a huge favor by finishing conference play strong to earn a top seed. So much of tournament success is based on who you play and your path to Memorial Day. We need another big win or two to feel good about a home game. Would be super chill if they could get one on Saturday.

[51percentcorn]

Jays can do themselves a huge favor by finishing conference play strong to earn a top seed. So much of tournament success is based on who you play and your path to Memorial Day. We need another big win or two to feel good about a home game. Would be super chill if they could get one on Saturday.

Very very true words. If Hopkins and Penn State had switched seeds last year it is quite possible the Jays could have been playing on the last Saturday in May.
So many scenarios - start with a win on Saturday - assume Michigan has too much firepower for Rutgers in Ann arbor - and Maryland wins Glovegate Redux in College Park and the standings are

Hopkins 3-0
Michigan 2-1
Maryland 2-1
Penn State 1-2
Ohio State 1-2
Rutgers 0-3

A Penn State win and/or an OSU upset throws the whole kettle over on the floor