Johns Hopkins 2024

[primitiveskills]

Strange debate to be having, especially considering how the Denver game ended. On that box-side midline restart, sure, there's a lot of things that you could do. But in that situation, you need to prevent the one thing that absolutely can't happen, which is turning the ball over at midfield or your own end and creating transition for UVA, especially if you have offensive personnel on the field. The time-out takes care of the latter. After the timeout, the midfield is Bauer, Deans, and Martin (and Bauer simply steps off for Jaronski after he throws the ball). By the time Nunes picks up the ball, UVA has 17 seconds to clear the ball the legnth of the field against a Hopkins D that is already in 6v6, win the subsequent face-off clean, and score again. Not happening. By contrast, if we somehow lose the ball in the middle of the field, they had more than enough time.

Against Denver, the one thing that couldn't happen was to let Sillstrop catch the ball hands-free anywhere in the box. But we let it happen. Against UVA, we avoided the only situation that could have really hurt us. Seems like we learned the lessons from the Denver game and managed the situation successfully.

[wgdsr]

Strange debate to be having, especially considering how the Denver game ended. On that box-side midline restart, sure, there's a lot of things that you could do. But in that situation, you need to prevent the one thing that absolutely can't happen, which is turning the ball over at midfield or your own end and creating transition for UVA, especially if you have offensive personnel on the field. The time-out takes care of the latter. After the timeout, the midfield is Bauer, Deans, and Martin (and Bauer simply steps off for Jaronski after he throws the ball). By the time Nunes picks up the ball, UVA has 17 seconds to clear the ball the legnth of the field against a Hopkins D that is already in 6v6, win the subsequent face-off clean, and score again. Not happening. By contrast, if we somehow lose the ball in the middle of the field, they had more than enough time.

Against Denver, the one thing that couldn't happen was to let Sillstrop catch the ball hands-free anywhere in the box. But we let it happen. Against UVA, we avoided the only situation that could have really hurt us. Seems like we learned the lessons from the Denver game and managed the situation successfully.

wasn't gonna step in here, but if primitive is gonna lean into denver final seconds?!?!

1st, the timeout was utilized correctly and the thinking was sound given time and score. only other best option to me is isolating an att down the same side alley, maybe the one hoo the goalie or shorty was on and throwing a ball into the corner that could be battled for. still, don't see much difference between the 2 given everything. if we're evaluating end game execution by players or coaches, really smith's heave was odd. 1 - no one @ backup, all guys probably locked up and in the alleys. 2 - there was literally no one in the middle of the field on the o-end. smith throws a moonshot, looked like it went over the cage by 20-30 yds. he had a license to take an actual shot there while not wanting to take a jailbreak turnover on the clear.

denver, they were man down. there were 5 other guys hoo could've had closer in shots than sillstrop. he doesn't shoot the ball 75% harder than everyone else. he was not the one thing that couldn't happen. he took an 18-19 yard shot, no screen, essentially low-to-low, stick side... that should've been saved.

[51percentcorn]

Syracuse stats are pretty clarifying. In the 5 wins against teams with a combined record of 11-18 their shot percentage is clearly above 35% - face-offs are way above 60% - ground balls are 43 a game - lowest Save percentage was 52% and they are averaging 18 goals per game
Against Maryland and Army - shot percentage fell to 25% - face-offs were below 50% (though close) ground balls were 29 a game average - Save percentage was 41 and 44% - goals average 12.5 a game

SO the direction of those different games is not surprising - the differential might be a little bit. Maryland and Army are certainly considered two of the strongest defensive tems in the country - continuing our defensive performance of late will go a long way. Starts with being competitive at the face-off X - need the same number of possessions.

[coda]

Syracuse stats are pretty clarifying. In the 5 wins against teams with a combined record of 11-18 their shot percentage is clearly above 35% - face-offs are way above 60% - ground balls are 43 a game - lowest Save percentage was 52% and they are averaging 18 goals per game
Against Maryland and Army - shot percentage fell to 25% - face-offs were below 50% (though close) ground balls were 29 a game average - Save percentage was 41 and 44% - goals average 12.5 a game

SO the direction of those different games is not surprising - the differential might be a little bit. Maryland and Army are certainly considered two of the strongest defensive tems in the country - continuing our defensive performance of late will go a long way. Starts with being competitive at the face-off X - need the same number of possessions.

This game could come down to the X. Army and Maryland are 2 of the best there. Cuse was sub 50% in both those games. They are 63% overall. Cuse has a good offense, so you can not let Kohn slant the field or it will be a long day

[jhu06]

Syracuse stats are pretty clarifying. In the 5 wins against teams with a combined record of 11-18 their shot percentage is clearly above 35% - face-offs are way above 60% - ground balls are 43 a game - lowest Save percentage was 52% and they are averaging 18 goals per game
Against Maryland and Army - shot percentage fell to 25% - face-offs were below 50% (though close) ground balls were 29 a game average - Save percentage was 41 and 44% - goals average 12.5 a game

SO the direction of those different games is not surprising - the differential might be a little bit. Maryland and Army are certainly considered two of the strongest defensive tems in the country - continuing our defensive performance of late will go a long way. Starts with being competitive at the face-off X - need the same number of possessions.

https://dailyorange.com/2024/03/syracus ... s-hopkins/

They're 1-13 under Gait against top 10 opponents, have lost 10 straight according to that article, and have struggled to finish games. If the Jays get and sustain any kind of lead early their kids are going to feel the pressure and buckle.

I guess PM has taken Cornell teams to Charlotte before. This is the last game of the 4 on the day on the field and it's supposed to rain Saturday morning. While it's supposedly turf, Cuse has played all of their games inside and you wonder what a team that hasn't seen the elements all spring and supposedly relying on a bells and whistles offense will do on it.

https://hopkinssports.com/news/2024/3/7 ... assic.aspx

[hmmm]

Cuse I guess hasn't played a single game all year outside. It's supposed to rain Saturday morning in Charlotte and you wonder how a young offense that relies on bells and whistles-Quint took a few shots at their showmanship this week, will do in the elements for the first time this spring. Grimes and Peshko have had some solid recent performances. Even though they're veterans, those scouting reports will probably be updated for this weeks game and you'd like to see Melendez really break out.

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... rlan/62738

Ierlan's interview with IL after the win had some interesting points
-He was particularly impressed with Crawley in the recruiting process
-He, McDermott, and Callahan knew each other from HS and that was a plus in his recruiting
-The halftime defensive focus against UVA was getting UVA in 6v6 and making them get to the end of the shot clock. They liked their 6v6 matchups against UVA a lot.
-They didn't ask him much against cuse.

Hopefully the rain is gone by the evening. Luckily that stadium is no longer grass.

[norcalhop]

Syracuse stats are pretty clarifying. In the 5 wins against teams with a combined record of 11-18 their shot percentage is clearly above 35% - face-offs are way above 60% - ground balls are 43 a game - lowest Save percentage was 52% and they are averaging 18 goals per game
Against Maryland and Army - shot percentage fell to 25% - face-offs were below 50% (though close) ground balls were 29 a game average - Save percentage was 41 and 44% - goals average 12.5 a game

SO the direction of those different games is not surprising - the differential might be a little bit. Maryland and Army are certainly considered two of the strongest defensive tems in the country - continuing our defensive performance of late will go a long way. Starts with being competitive at the face-off X - need the same number of possessions.

https://dailyorange.com/2024/03/syracus ... s-hopkins/

They're 1-13 under Gait against top 10 opponents, have lost 10 straight according to that article, and have struggled to finish games. If the Jays get and sustain any kind of lead early their kids are going to feel the pressure and buckle.

I guess PM has taken Cornell teams to Charlotte before. This is the last game of the 4 on the day on the field and it's supposed to rain Saturday morning. While it's supposedly turf, Cuse has played all of their games inside and you wonder what a team that hasn't seen the elements all spring and supposedly relying on a bells and whistles offense will do on it.

https://hopkinssports.com/news/2024/3/7 ... assic.aspx

Syracuse should have won both games in OT against UMD and Army. I think they will be ready. They also have revenge on their minds from last season.

[ColumbiaBlueBlack]

This. He didn't interpret the timestamp nor the situation correctly, which is ironic. Bauer is very clearly holding the ball before and after the TO.

If you were actually at the game watching the sideline action, then I concede the point. Otherwise, no, timeout was called before Bauer picked up the ball.

[norcalhop]

This. He didn't interpret the timestamp nor the situation correctly, which is ironic. Bauer is very clearly holding the ball before and after the TO.

If you were actually at the game watching the sideline action, then I concede the point. Otherwise, no, timeout was called before Bauer picked up the ball.

"Bauer is very clearly holding the ball before and after the TO."

[51percentcorn]

If you were actually at the game watching the sideline action, then I concede the point. Otherwise, no, timeout was called before Bauer picked up the ball.

OK - I concede the point to anyone that wants to say why are we still talking about this but video is video and I guess this is a hammer and nail situation. At 1:43:02 of the youtube video - the ball has just left the field - you hear the refs whistle blow - Aviles is about 3 yards from leaving the field - Kelly is the coach closest to the box cone and Milliman is standing to his left pointing with his right hand. Bauer is already running towards the field - he is about 3 yards away. At 1:43:04 - two seconds later - Bauer is standing on the field with a lacrosse ball in his stick - Degnon is pointing towars Kaestner - very likely indicating he thinks UVA is not giving 5 yards to Bauer. Kelly has an arm extended like he is giving a hold it sign and Milliman hasn't moved a centimeter and is now scratching his beard. There is not an offical anywhere near the screen. SO how in those two seconds he called a timeout is eluding me. I was not at the game but I have been to Klockner more times than I can say and I know exacty where you were sitting (as you were clearly right in the middle of Russel's vodcast shot of the Hopkins crowd) - so given the speed of sound vs light - I don't even see how a great horned owl could have differentiated when Milliman actually uttered the words. Then there is the logics problem of WHY Bauer would bother to step on the field if the head coach - who was clearly within 5-7 yards of him - had already called a time out.

And not that it matters of course - the point Norcal was making - regardless of when Milliman called the timeout - was of course the age old discussion- go immediately while things are unsettled - trust your training - and don't give the defense a chance to really set up vs. calling a timeout if you have one which of course also gives the opponents a chance to plan. What Hopkins did clearly worked but it wasn't perfect.

[jhu06]

Winning tomorrow
1. Faceoffs-HPU went on a run when they started winning faceoffs. Syracuse is 2nd in the country in gbs per game.
2. Staying out of man down-Cuse seems to be a team that relies on emotion from their offense, the fewer opportunities for them to rev that up the better. You take a smith or szulak off and things or make the defense face a prolonged period on the field and you're handing them goals. Note-they're 4th in their conference in man up so maybe I'm wrong.
3. Get Melendez going. I'd love to see the midfield produce like it has the last few weeks, but it's a lot to expect. He needs to be bigger. A big game from Angelus wouldn't hurt either. They're last in their conference in caused turnovers per game.
4. Continued SSDM strength. Cuse seems to have a lot of offensive talent and so far Martin Jaronski Aviles Raposo and crew have held up ok. It's a veteran group that should be able to master Jamesons gameplan.
5. More consistent 60 minute game from Ierlan.
6. Continued controlling of the middle of the field. They're 4th in their conference in clearing percentage and 50th in the country in opposing clearing percentage so there could be some opportunities there.

[LaxAllStars]

Former JHU assistant coach Bill Tierney

https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show ... ey-e2gi2oc

[norcalhop]

Who has the edge in faceoff in this game?

[primitiveskills]

Winning tomorrow
1. Faceoffs-HPU went on a run when they started winning faceoffs. Syracuse is 2nd in the country in gbs per game.
2. Staying out of man down-Cuse seems to be a team that relies on emotion from their offense, the fewer opportunities for them to rev that up the better. You take a smith or szulak off and things or make the defense face a prolonged period on the field and you're handing them goals. Note-they're 4th in their conference in man up so maybe I'm wrong.
3. Get Melendez going. I'd love to see the midfield produce like it has the last few weeks, but it's a lot to expect. He needs to be bigger. A big game from Angelus wouldn't hurt either. They're last in their conference in caused turnovers per game.
4. Continued SSDM strength. Cuse seems to have a lot of offensive talent and so far Martin Jaronski Aviles Raposo and crew have held up ok. It's a veteran group that should be able to master Jamesons gameplan.
5. More consistent 60 minute game from Ierlan.
6. Continued controlling of the middle of the field. They're 4th in their conference in clearing percentage and 50th in the country in opposing clearing percentage so there could be some opportunities there.

I'll add a couple:
- They have a ton of offensive talent, but they are especially a threat when Spallina gets going. However, Spallina has had a lot of trouble against top poles (Pilate form Army, Zappitello from Maryland). If Scott Smith has a great game, it will bodes well.
- We need to exploit matchups with SSDMs. If there's any single position where we have a big edge, its there.

[primitiveskills]

Who has the edge in faceoff in this game?

Really hard to know for any given game (different styles, different official's cadence can render overall stats moot), but Hopkins has the luxury of two guys with very different styles that should make us at least competitive in any given game. Their guy (Kohn) is very good, but I'm not sure they have as good of a "Plan B" as Hopkins does.

[Powellfan22]

Who has the edge in faceoff in this game?

Really hard to know for any given game (different styles, different official's cadence can render overall stats moot), but Hopkins has the luxury of two guys with very different styles that should make us at least competitive in any given game. Their guy (Kohn) is very good, but I'm not sure they have as good of a "Plan B" as Hopkins does.

John Mullen is facing off at 65% with 60 faceoffs taken. On paper at least, he’s a better “plan B” than what Hopkins has.

[51percentcorn]

Winning tomorrow
1. Faceoffs-HPU went on a run when they started winning faceoffs. Syracuse is 2nd in the country in gbs per game.
2. Staying out of man down-Cuse seems to be a team that relies on emotion from their offense, the fewer opportunities for them to rev that up the better. You take a smith or szulak off and things or make the defense face a prolonged period on the field and you're handing them goals. Note-they're 4th in their conference in man up so maybe I'm wrong.
3. Get Melendez going. I'd love to see the midfield produce like it has the last few weeks, but it's a lot to expect. He needs to be bigger. A big game from Angelus wouldn't hurt either. They're last in their conference in caused turnovers per game.
4. Continued SSDM strength. Cuse seems to have a lot of offensive talent and so far Martin Jaronski Aviles Raposo and crew have held up ok. It's a veteran group that should be able to master Jamesons gameplan.
5. More consistent 60 minute game from Ierlan.
6. Continued controlling of the middle of the field. They're 4th in their conference in clearing percentage and 50th in the country in opposing clearing percentage so there could be some opportunities there.

Not a horrible list - #3 - There is some thought Melendez has been banged up which is maybe why he hasn't dodged to score to the level we believe he is capable.
#5 - Aside from 2 seconds where exactly have you seen inconsistency from Ierlan? - he has been as advertised and then some

As any game - it's all about possessions - if they get alot more bites at the apple - their offense is scary good. MD and Army have great face-off men/top level defenses with 1st team AA caliber guys running around at some positions so the possession battle was even to say the least and they could withstand the Syracuse offense better than most. And the Orange still almost won both games. I think Hopkins' offense might be the best Syracuse has faced to date - MD will get many opportunities to prove me wrong.

In addition - the Hopkins two game winning streak against Syracuse is completely born on the backs of goalie play. Marcille's 21 saves in 23 and Syracuse is still probably trying to figure out how they lost the game in '22. Kirson's 14 saves and Syracuse only putting 21 of 54 shots on goal were the reasons. So again my thoughts on what they have to do:
- Syracuse's stick skills are lethal - yes and yes to avoid big time penalties
- Face-offs will be very important
- Hopkins has had 17 shot clock violations so "player" turnovers stand at 69 - that's 11.5 a game - better - actually much better - 247 "player" turnovers last year was 14.5 per game - that needs to continue against a team like the Orange
- Chayse needs to avoid a complete clunker - no reason to think one is coming
- Long possessions will not hurt - I don't think anyone looks at MD and Army and sees the Lakers Showtime in their mind. When you are an offensive oriented team and you are standing there looking at the other team alot - it can make you impatient as well as limiting your opportunities.

[molo]

It appears that the rain will be over by game time. Wish I could say the same about the game set to begin outside my back door in a couple of hours.

[Finster]

Who has the edge in faceoff in this game?

Really hard to know for any given game (different styles, different official's cadence can render overall stats moot), but Hopkins has the luxury of two guys with very different styles that should make us at least competitive in any given game. Their guy (Kohn) is very good, but I'm not sure they have as good of a "Plan B" as Hopkins does.

John Mullen is facing off at 65% with 60 faceoffs taken. On paper at least, he’s a better “plan B” than what Hopkins has.

FO's will be intriguing to say the least. If pushed to wager a bet, I'd think Syracuse comes out on top of the FO matchup at about 60%.

I also think Primitive Skills is correct when saying an official's cadence decides so much at FO, at least in the first half (players tend to adjust as a game wears on).

I have no idea who wins this game. You could tell me any prediction and I would nod my head in agreement. On one level, Cuse needs the win more than JHU. On the other hand, this is Cuse's first game outside. Who freaking knows. Hope it goes OT regardless.

[Hoponboard]

Who has the edge in faceoff in this game?

Really hard to know for any given game (different styles, different official's cadence can render overall stats moot), but Hopkins has the luxury of two guys with very different styles that should make us at least competitive in any given game. Their guy (Kohn) is very good, but I'm not sure they have as good of a "Plan B" as Hopkins does.

John Mullen is facing off at 65% with 60 faceoffs taken. On paper at least, he’s a better “plan B” than what Hopkins has.

Reality check.

Cuse has faced two ranked opponents.

Against Maryland, Mullen was 1/2 and Kohn 12/27.

Versus Army, Mullen was 4/8 and Kohn 11/23.

For those two games, Cuse was .466 at FOs.

RPIs for the other 5 opponents.

Manhattan #57
Vermont #54
Utah #29
High Point #26
Colgate #25

RPIs for Hop’s six opponents.

Towson #35
North Carolina #21
Loyola #17
Georgetown #13
Virginia #4
Denver #3