Lacrosse Analytics

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Tue Jan 2, 2024 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Clemson's defense in 2023 made quite an impression with its performance, nestling comfortably in the 90th percentile for overall defensive efficiency even after adjusting for opponent strength. This positioned the Tigers as the 12th ranked defensive unit in the country, a ranking largely earned on the back of their exceptional on-goal shooting percentage, which was ranked in the 93rd percentile nationally.

The length of the opposing team's possessions played a role in Clemson's defensive outcomes. The Tigers shone brightest in possessions that lasted between 20 and 40 seconds, with only 23.1% of these resulting in goals. However, as possessions stretched beyond the 40-second mark, Clemson's defense began showing cracks, with goals allowed on 35.4% of possessions, indicating an area for scrutiny. They were 12 percentage points better than the average on the shorter possessions and just 2.2 percentage points better than the average on longer possessions. If they were able to create turnovers early, they were effective. They were less effective when opponents were able to withstand their pressure.

The team's performance, however, was not without its highs and lows. Even after adjusting for their opponents, a four-game winning streak in February against Wofford, Furman, Winthrop, and Gardner-Webb was their best defensive stretch. In this golden period, Clemson's adjusted defensive efficiency was a mere 3%, placing them in the topmost echelon of teams. The key to this success lay in their ability to force a turnover rate of 50%. In contrast, their roughest patch came in April, with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 25%. The culprit for this dip was a starkly reduced turnover rate of 13%. They were able to turn over less effective offenses, but they struggled to repeat that trick against better teams. Again, when they couldn't force turnovers, they didn't have an answer.

Statistical thresholds also presented interesting insights into what made the Clemson defense tick. The key bellwether was the opposing offense's shooting percentage. In the 10 games where their opponent shot better than 43.2%, Clemson did not record a victory. On the flip side, a shooting percentage of less than 43.2% from the opposing team signaled a likely win for Clemson, with a 12 - 2 record.

In conclusion, Clemson's 2023 defensive unit proved its mettle with impressive rankings and key statistical performances. While they dominated in many areas, fluctuations in turnover rates was a significant factor in their performance. How to stop good offenses who withstand their pressure is the next step in this team's defensive development.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Fri Jan 12, 2024 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

As the new lacrosse season approaches, we are spending some time going through each team's roster. Today, it's Johns Hopkins' turn under the microscope. The Blue Jays' roster suggests they are well-positioned to maintain, if not improve upon, their solid performance from the previous year. With an expanded roster of 43 players, 10 more than the previous season, the Blue Jays have a larger pool of talent to draw from. That is a massive increase in depth where a 2- or 3-player increase is considered substantial. This increase in numbers not only provides more options for the coaching staff but also introduces the potential for increased competition within the team, which could spur player development and performance. It is interesting to see the roster dynamics at play here with the arrival of the new coaching staff.

The draw control unit, vital to controlling the tempo of the game, has been significantly bolstered by the addition of two transfers who bring a wealth of experience and proven skill. Jennifer Barry, an exceptional draw specialist from Boston U, joins with an impressive record in the 99th percentile for draw control-related production. Her 139 draw controls from last season indicate that she could be a central figure in the Blue Jays' strategy. Complementing Barry is Kacie Riggs from California, who secured 44 draw controls last season. With these two joining a unit that retains a substantial 93% of its production, the hope for Johns Hopkins is that they can dominate draw controls even more effectively than last season, when they ranked in the 87th percentile nationally on an opponent-adjusted basis.

Offensively, the Blue Jays are in an enviable position, returning 98% of their production. This speaks to a consistent and seasoned offense, with no glaring gaps left by departing players. Ava Angello, who took 15% of the team's shots last season, is expected to continue as a key contributor and Bailey Cheetham and Maeve Barker are also set to return, each bringing their own strengths to the table. While efficiency could be improved upon, as Barker's individual player efficiency was in the 45th percentile, the existing foundation is solid. With the offense already ranked in the 64th percentile nationally, if the returning players can continue to develop, this unit could become a real strength for the team.

The defensive end of the field also looks promising, and the Jays are set in goal. Maggie Tydings, who recorded 118 saves with a save percentage of 37.7%, will likely retain her role as the starting goaltender, backed by the continuity she brings to a defense that finished in the 87th percentile. The addition of freshman Heidi Rosely and Madison Doucette will create depth, although it's unclear if they will be able to challenge Tydings for the starting role.

Taking everything into account, the Johns Hopkins roster for the 2024 season does more than suggest stability—it indicates a potential for growth and improved success...if their returning contributors can take that next step forward. With an already strong draw control unit receiving a significant boost, a returning offensive core that can only benefit from another year of experience, and a steadfast defensive lineup anchored by a reliable goaltender, the Blue Jays have a chance to improve upon last year's solid performance and continue their upward march in the lacrosse world.

If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up for Expected Goals here.

[NULax2]

This was originally published in the Fri Jan 12, 2024 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

As the new lacrosse season approaches, we are spending some time going through each team's roster. Today, it's Johns Hopkins' turn under the microscope. The Blue Jays' roster suggests they are well-positioned to maintain, if not improve upon, their solid performance from the previous year. With an expanded roster of 43 players, 10 more than the previous season, the Blue Jays have a larger pool of talent to draw from. That is a massive increase in depth where a 2- or 3-player increase is considered substantial. This increase in numbers not only provides more options for the coaching staff but also introduces the potential for increased competition within the team, which could spur player development and performance. It is interesting to see the roster dynamics at play here with the arrival of the new coaching staff.

The draw control unit, vital to controlling the tempo of the game, has been significantly bolstered by the addition of two transfers who bring a wealth of experience and proven skill. Jennifer Barry, an exceptional draw specialist from Boston U, joins with an impressive record in the 99th percentile for draw control-related production. Her 139 draw controls from last season indicate that she could be a central figure in the Blue Jays' strategy. Complementing Barry is Kacie Riggs from California, who secured 44 draw controls last season. With these two joining a unit that retains a substantial 93% of its production, the hope for Johns Hopkins is that they can dominate draw controls even more effectively than last season, when they ranked in the 87th percentile nationally on an opponent-adjusted basis.

Offensively, the Blue Jays are in an enviable position, returning 98% of their production. This speaks to a consistent and seasoned offense, with no glaring gaps left by departing players. Ava Angello, who took 15% of the team's shots last season, is expected to continue as a key contributor and Bailey Cheetham and Maeve Barker are also set to return, each bringing their own strengths to the table. While efficiency could be improved upon, as Barker's individual player efficiency was in the 45th percentile, the existing foundation is solid. With the offense already ranked in the 64th percentile nationally, if the returning players can continue to develop, this unit could become a real strength for the team.

The defensive end of the field also looks promising, and the Jays are set in goal. Maggie Tydings, who recorded 118 saves with a save percentage of 37.7%, will likely retain her role as the starting goaltender, backed by the continuity she brings to a defense that finished in the 87th percentile. The addition of freshman Heidi Rosely and Madison Doucette will create depth, although it's unclear if they will be able to challenge Tydings for the starting role.

Taking everything into account, the Johns Hopkins roster for the 2024 season does more than suggest stability—it indicates a potential for growth and improved success...if their returning contributors can take that next step forward. With an already strong draw control unit receiving a significant boost, a returning offensive core that can only benefit from another year of experience, and a steadfast defensive lineup anchored by a reliable goaltender, the Blue Jays have a chance to improve upon last year's solid performance and continue their upward march in the lacrosse world.

If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up for Expected Goals here.

"The defensive end of the field also looks promising, and the Jays are set in goal. Maggie Tydings, who recorded 118 saves with a save percentage of 37.7%, will likely retain her role as the starting goaltender, backed by the continuity she brings to a defense that finished in the 87th percentile. The addition of freshman Heidi Rosely and Madison Doucette will create depth, although it's unclear if they will be able to challenge Tydings for the starting role."

Surely you are joking. Madison Doucette had 166 saves with a save % of 42.2% in her last year at NU. She is not there for depth, she's the day 1 starter.

[hmmm]

This was originally published in the Fri Jan 12, 2024 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

As the new lacrosse season approaches, we are spending some time going through each team's roster. Today, it's Johns Hopkins' turn under the microscope. The Blue Jays' roster suggests they are well-positioned to maintain, if not improve upon, their solid performance from the previous year. With an expanded roster of 43 players, 10 more than the previous season, the Blue Jays have a larger pool of talent to draw from. That is a massive increase in depth where a 2- or 3-player increase is considered substantial. This increase in numbers not only provides more options for the coaching staff but also introduces the potential for increased competition within the team, which could spur player development and performance. It is interesting to see the roster dynamics at play here with the arrival of the new coaching staff.

The draw control unit, vital to controlling the tempo of the game, has been significantly bolstered by the addition of two transfers who bring a wealth of experience and proven skill. Jennifer Barry, an exceptional draw specialist from Boston U, joins with an impressive record in the 99th percentile for draw control-related production. Her 139 draw controls from last season indicate that she could be a central figure in the Blue Jays' strategy. Complementing Barry is Kacie Riggs from California, who secured 44 draw controls last season. With these two joining a unit that retains a substantial 93% of its production, the hope for Johns Hopkins is that they can dominate draw controls even more effectively than last season, when they ranked in the 87th percentile nationally on an opponent-adjusted basis.

Offensively, the Blue Jays are in an enviable position, returning 98% of their production. This speaks to a consistent and seasoned offense, with no glaring gaps left by departing players. Ava Angello, who took 15% of the team's shots last season, is expected to continue as a key contributor and Bailey Cheetham and Maeve Barker are also set to return, each bringing their own strengths to the table. While efficiency could be improved upon, as Barker's individual player efficiency was in the 45th percentile, the existing foundation is solid. With the offense already ranked in the 64th percentile nationally, if the returning players can continue to develop, this unit could become a real strength for the team.

The defensive end of the field also looks promising, and the Jays are set in goal. Maggie Tydings, who recorded 118 saves with a save percentage of 37.7%, will likely retain her role as the starting goaltender, backed by the continuity she brings to a defense that finished in the 87th percentile. The addition of freshman Heidi Rosely and Madison Doucette will create depth, although it's unclear if they will be able to challenge Tydings for the starting role.

Taking everything into account, the Johns Hopkins roster for the 2024 season does more than suggest stability—it indicates a potential for growth and improved success...if their returning contributors can take that next step forward. With an already strong draw control unit receiving a significant boost, a returning offensive core that can only benefit from another year of experience, and a steadfast defensive lineup anchored by a reliable goaltender, the Blue Jays have a chance to improve upon last year's solid performance and continue their upward march in the lacrosse world.

If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up for Expected Goals here.

"The defensive end of the field also looks promising, and the Jays are set in goal. Maggie Tydings, who recorded 118 saves with a save percentage of 37.7%, will likely retain her role as the starting goaltender, backed by the continuity she brings to a defense that finished in the 87th percentile. The addition of freshman Heidi Rosely and Madison Doucette will create depth, although it's unclear if they will be able to challenge Tydings for the starting role."

Surely you are joking. Madison Doucette had 166 saves with a save % of 42.2% in her last year at NU. She is not there for depth, she's the day 1 starter.

I believe laxreference confirmed that these are AI created reports based on algorithms using last year's stats and this year's roster. While they are interesting reads, sometimes, no real research was done and certainly no one talked with anyone at Hopkins for this report.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

I detest analytics. More and more they insinuate themselves into sports one by one until there are no more hunch decisions and decisions made on the fly. Nope. What does the verkakte spread sheet say we should do here? Ruining sports, one sport at a time, one team at a time.

[NULax2]

"The defensive end of the field also looks promising, and the Jays are set in goal. Maggie Tydings, who recorded 118 saves with a save percentage of 37.7%, will likely retain her role as the starting goaltender, backed by the continuity she brings to a defense that finished in the 87th percentile. The addition of freshman Heidi Rosely and Madison Doucette will create depth, although it's unclear if they will be able to challenge Tydings for the starting role."

Surely you are joking. Madison Doucette had 166 saves with a save % of 42.2% in her last year at NU. She is not there for depth, she's the day 1 starter.

I believe laxreference confirmed that these are AI created reports based on algorithms using last year's stats and this year's roster. While they are interesting reads, sometimes, no real research was done and certainly no one talked with anyone at Hopkins for this report.

If they are AI generated, I'm not sure that makes me feel any better. "Garbage in, garbage out"

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Fri Jan 12, 2024 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

As the new lacrosse season approaches, we are spending some time going through each team's roster. Today, it's Johns Hopkins' turn under the microscope. The Blue Jays' roster suggests they are well-positioned to maintain, if not improve upon, their solid performance from the previous year. With an expanded roster of 43 players, 10 more than the previous season, the Blue Jays have a larger pool of talent to draw from. That is a massive increase in depth where a 2- or 3-player increase is considered substantial. This increase in numbers not only provides more options for the coaching staff but also introduces the potential for increased competition within the team, which could spur player development and performance. It is interesting to see the roster dynamics at play here with the arrival of the new coaching staff.

The draw control unit, vital to controlling the tempo of the game, has been significantly bolstered by the addition of two transfers who bring a wealth of experience and proven skill. Jennifer Barry, an exceptional draw specialist from Boston U, joins with an impressive record in the 99th percentile for draw control-related production. Her 139 draw controls from last season indicate that she could be a central figure in the Blue Jays' strategy. Complementing Barry is Kacie Riggs from California, who secured 44 draw controls last season. With these two joining a unit that retains a substantial 93% of its production, the hope for Johns Hopkins is that they can dominate draw controls even more effectively than last season, when they ranked in the 87th percentile nationally on an opponent-adjusted basis.

Offensively, the Blue Jays are in an enviable position, returning 98% of their production. This speaks to a consistent and seasoned offense, with no glaring gaps left by departing players. Ava Angello, who took 15% of the team's shots last season, is expected to continue as a key contributor and Bailey Cheetham and Maeve Barker are also set to return, each bringing their own strengths to the table. While efficiency could be improved upon, as Barker's individual player efficiency was in the 45th percentile, the existing foundation is solid. With the offense already ranked in the 64th percentile nationally, if the returning players can continue to develop, this unit could become a real strength for the team.

The defensive end of the field also looks promising, and the Jays are set in goal. Maggie Tydings, who recorded 118 saves with a save percentage of 37.7%, will likely retain her role as the starting goaltender, backed by the continuity she brings to a defense that finished in the 87th percentile. The addition of freshman Heidi Rosely and Madison Doucette will create depth, although it's unclear if they will be able to challenge Tydings for the starting role.

Taking everything into account, the Johns Hopkins roster for the 2024 season does more than suggest stability—it indicates a potential for growth and improved success...if their returning contributors can take that next step forward. With an already strong draw control unit receiving a significant boost, a returning offensive core that can only benefit from another year of experience, and a steadfast defensive lineup anchored by a reliable goaltender, the Blue Jays have a chance to improve upon last year's solid performance and continue their upward march in the lacrosse world.

If you want 5-10 minutes of team and player analysis in your inbox every morning, sign up for Expected Goals here.

"The defensive end of the field also looks promising, and the Jays are set in goal. Maggie Tydings, who recorded 118 saves with a save percentage of 37.7%, will likely retain her role as the starting goaltender, backed by the continuity she brings to a defense that finished in the 87th percentile. The addition of freshman Heidi Rosely and Madison Doucette will create depth, although it's unclear if they will be able to challenge Tydings for the starting role."

Surely you are joking. Madison Doucette had 166 saves with a save % of 42.2% in her last year at NU. She is not there for depth, she's the day 1 starter.

Thanks for pointing this out. RIght now, the system doesn't compare a) returner with 37.7% with b) national champ coming in with a better save percentage. It just assumed the returner would retain her role. But I'll defer to those that know the team better on this one. I'm sure you are right that Doucette will be the starter.

It's a good idea to add though; no reason you couldn't look at their objective metrics, especially after adding the opponent adjustments, and see that Doucette had the better numbers last year.

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Mon Jan 8, 2024 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

As we pore over the Hofstra Pride's roster for the upcoming 2024 season, the watchword is youth. With a significant number of new players stepping onto the field, the Pride's success will hinge on how these athletes adapt and grow into their roles. The core question for fans is whether this roster has the potential to outperform last year's outcomes or if the team is poised for another challenging season.

The experience on the Hofstra roster is notably limited, with a median of just 32 career games played among the top-10 rotation players. This lack of experience could lead to growing pains early in the season as the team develops chemistry and the less seasoned players adjust to the collegiate level of play. With only 5 players having played in 30 or more games over their careers and a balanced mix of 11 seniors and grad students against 11 newcomers, the team is at a pivotal point where leadership must emerge from those with game-time experience while also fostering the growth of its future stars.

On the offensive end, Hofstra is looking to revitalize its attack after losing 58% of last year's output. This is where the transfer portal could prove invaluable. The addition of Madeleine Rudolph from Richmond brings a player who finished 2023 in the 99th percentile for individual player efficiency albeit in a limited role. Whether that efficiency holds up to increased defensive attention is the main question there. Melissa Sconone's arrival from North Carolina provides a more proven track record as an initiator. She created 9% of the team's assists last season and did it with an individual efficiency rating of 81. New players in a new system just adds to the uncertainty around this team.

The departure of Katie Kelly, a significant playmaker, leaves a void in Hofstra's offense. Kelly's contribution of 21% of the team's assists and 14% of the their offensive production last year was substantial, and while her individual efficiency was fairly low (29th percentile), her overall impact was undeniable. The onus will now fall on both returning players and newcomers to not only match but also exceed her production to elevate the Pride's offensive game. The silver lining is that if they can best her 29th percentile efficiency rating, the offense could actually see a boost.

Defensively, Hofstra is also navigating through a period of reconstruction. Returning only 58% of the defensive contributions from the previous year speaks volumes about the challenges ahead. With Kendall Smith's departure, one of the most productive defenders from last season, the team will need new faces to step up. The defense, which ranked in the 45th percentile for opponent-adjusted efficiency, will need new strategies and personnel just to maintain, if not improve, their standing.

In goal, Hofstra has a semblance of stability with Luchianna Cardello, who probably has the inside track at the job this season. Despite the team's average save percentage ranking last season (42nd percentile), Cardello's experience makes this less of a question-mark although the lack of depth could be an issue. With no new goalkeepers listed and no transfer reinforcements, her performance will be critical to the team's overall defensive success.

Taking a holistic view of Hofstra's roster, it's clear that the program is at a crossroads. While the influx of talent through transfers offers a beacon of hope, the lack of experience and the turnover of key players indicate that the Pride may face an uphill battle. The team's ability to integrate new players, develop chemistry, and adapt to new roles will be the deciding factors in whether they can halt the downward trend and embark on a path to improvement this season.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Fri Jan 19, 2024 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

As the new season approaches, the Syracuse roster is a blend of seasoned veterans and promising new talent. With a history of success, the paramount question is whether this year's lineup will continue to elevate the program and keep Syracuse in the championship conversation.

The Orange boasts a commendable depth of experience, with the median rotation player having participated in 48 career games. It's a battle-tested core that understands the rigors of a demanding season. This experience is spread across the field, with 12 players having at least 30 career games to their name. The presence of 11 seniors and graduate students provides a mentoring backbone for the 9 newcomers who have yet to see game action. This blend of maturity and fresh faces brings a dynamic quality to the team, with the potential for stability along with the upside of young players who could contribute.

On the defensive end, Syracuse is set to continue its formidable presence. Returning 94% of their defensive experience is no small feat, and it speaks volumes about the continuity and understanding among the defensive unit. This is a group that ranked in the 96th percentile last season, and with the return of stalwarts like Delaney Sweitzer in goal, whose 51% save percentage was instrumental in the team's 99th percentile ranking for save percentage, the Orange defense looks poised to remain a tough nut to crack.

Offensively, Syracuse faces the challenge of integrating new players to compensate for the significant loss of 44% of last year's offensive production. The spotlight shines on transfers Mackenzie Rich (North Carolina) and Emma Muchnick (Maryland). They both finished 2023 in the 98th percentile for individual efficiency, albeit in smaller roles. However, questions linger around how these talents will adapt to a new system and whether they can maintain their high level of play. The offense will be anchored by returnees Emma Ward and Emma Tyrrell, who contributed 17% and 14% of last season's offensive production, respectively. Their experience and skill will be crucial as the Orange offense, which ranked in the top percentile nationally, looks to fill the void left by key departures. The biggest loss is clearly Meaghan Tyrrell, who recorded 27% of the team's assists while putting together a 91st percentile efficiency rating.

In the realm of draw control, the Orange are incorporating transfers to bolster a unit that already performed admirably last season, ranking in the 96th percentile for opponent-adjusted draw-control win rate. Claire Jeschke's addition from Brown could prove invaluable as the team seeks to replace 29% of last year's draw control production. Olivia Adamson's return, with her elite 98th percentile ranking in draw control-related production, is a reassuring factor for the Orange's ability to win possessions and control the pace of the game.

This season's Syracuse roster, with its experienced core, defensive solidity, and infusion of high-caliber transfers, presents a compelling case for another championship-contending year. While the loss of offensive and draw control production is notable, the caliber of incoming talent suggests that the Orange have the pieces to not only replace but potentially enhance their output in these areas. Ultimately, this team's ability to integrate new players into an already robust framework will be the determining factor in whether Syracuse can build upon last year's success and vie for the ultimate prize.

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