The Nation's Financial Condition

[MDlaxfan76]

Today a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed strong economic growth of 3.3% in the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2023, setting growth for the year at 3.1% (by comparison, in the first three years of Trump’s term, before the pandemic, growth was 2.5%). A year ago, economists projected that the U.S. would have a recession in 2023, and forecast growth of 0.2%.

Meanwhile, unemployment remains low, wages are high, and inflation is receding. As Gabriel T. Rubin put it in the Wall Street Journal today, “The final three months of the year looked a lot like the soft landing Fed officials are seeking to achieve.”

There is a major political story behind this impressive economic one. Since 1981, lawmakers have insisted that cutting taxes, regulation, and the social safety net would create much faster and more efficient growth than was possible under the system in place between 1933 and 1981.


What Recession? Growth Ended Up Accelerating in 2023
Economy expanded 3.1% from a year earlier due to strong consumer spending and hiring
https://www.wsj.com/economy/gdp-us-econ ... ticle_pos5

hmmm, crickets from the right wing posters...

Keep up the good work!!! Things are looking up so much it's time for well deserved tax increase.

Sure, on the 0.1%.
Not 1%, 0.1.

1/10th of 1 percent. 1 out of a thousand Americans.

They now have more than 20% of all wealth in America.

The next 0.9% hold almost 19%.

Top 10% have 73%.

You tell me.

https://economics.princeton.edu/working ... s-returns/

[MDlaxfan76]

Today a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed strong economic growth of 3.3% in the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2023, setting growth for the year at 3.1% (by comparison, in the first three years of Trump’s term, before the pandemic, growth was 2.5%). A year ago, economists projected that the U.S. would have a recession in 2023, and forecast growth of 0.2%.

Meanwhile, unemployment remains low, wages are high, and inflation is receding. As Gabriel T. Rubin put it in the Wall Street Journal today, “The final three months of the year looked a lot like the soft landing Fed officials are seeking to achieve.”

There is a major political story behind this impressive economic one. Since 1981, lawmakers have insisted that cutting taxes, regulation, and the social safety net would create much faster and more efficient growth than was possible under the system in place between 1933 and 1981.


What Recession? Growth Ended Up Accelerating in 2023
Economy expanded 3.1% from a year earlier due to strong consumer spending and hiring
https://www.wsj.com/economy/gdp-us-econ ... ticle_pos5

hmmm, crickets from the right wing posters...

Keep up the good work!!! Things are looking up so much it's time for well deserved tax increase.

Of course there is 0.6 growth….how could there not be, inflation has caused the price to go up for most everything, while labor and the cost of manufacturing goods has not matched. I’d certainly want 2.5% growth without the inflationary costs of the past few years….anyone that would is FOS.

Good thing you're not an economist...kinda like Salty talking about the law...or telling us about how Trump has an Ivy MBA...

The growth is in real GDP, which is already inflation adjusted.

By comparison, Trump's 4 years were 1.8% real GDP growth avg annually whereas Biden's is 3.4% so far.

Now, that's not entirely fair as Trump's real GDP growth was crushed by the pandemic.

Taking a longer view is more helpful.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

Even more interesting is the per capita real GDP over the past 10 years or longer:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA

Don't believe anyone who tells you our economy isn't robust and resilient, amazingly so IMO.

And we outperform the world on the regular.

[youthathletics]

Today a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed strong economic growth of 3.3% in the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2023, setting growth for the year at 3.1% (by comparison, in the first three years of Trump’s term, before the pandemic, growth was 2.5%). A year ago, economists projected that the U.S. would have a recession in 2023, and forecast growth of 0.2%.

Meanwhile, unemployment remains low, wages are high, and inflation is receding. As Gabriel T. Rubin put it in the Wall Street Journal today, “The final three months of the year looked a lot like the soft landing Fed officials are seeking to achieve.”

There is a major political story behind this impressive economic one. Since 1981, lawmakers have insisted that cutting taxes, regulation, and the social safety net would create much faster and more efficient growth than was possible under the system in place between 1933 and 1981.


What Recession? Growth Ended Up Accelerating in 2023
Economy expanded 3.1% from a year earlier due to strong consumer spending and hiring
https://www.wsj.com/economy/gdp-us-econ ... ticle_pos5

hmmm, crickets from the right wing posters...

Keep up the good work!!! Things are looking up so much it's time for well deserved tax increase.

Of course there is 0.6 growth….how could there not be, inflation has caused the price to go up for most everything, while labor and the cost of manufacturing goods has not matched. I’d certainly want 2.5% growth without the inflationary costs of the past few years….anyone that would is FOS.

Good thing you're not an economist...kinda like Salty talking about the law...or telling us about how Trump has an Ivy MBA...

The growth is in real GDP, which is already inflation adjusted.

By comparison, Trump's 4 years were 1.8% real GDP growth avg annually whereas Biden's is 3.4% so far.

Now, that's not entirely fair as Trump's real GDP growth was crushed by the pandemic.

Taking a longer view is more helpful.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

Even more interesting is the per capita real GDP over the past 10 years or longer:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA

Don't believe anyone who tells you our economy isn't robust and resilient, amazingly so IMO.

And we outperform the world on the regular.

No one needs to be an economist to fully understand the difference of how people are living now vs then and how their dollar works for them.

I’m stoked we never hit (official) recession, the fed limped is along. Maybe we should thank Russia for going to war with Ukraine?

[Farfromgeneva]

While the crowd that’s banging in everything Biden are making up hysteria and manufacturing worry behind reality…

If people want to beat their chest and lay down markers on the economy today and stop writing the book on Biden, I will be there to tell you what a knucklehead shortsighted goof you were for that. Things have held up surprisingly well so far and that’s good (though economics are sorta like the market, you still shouldn’t be a cheerleader as it pollutes thinking and decision making) but we are started a lot of the unwind of support to people in the last six months. Rent relief a moratoriums ended in June. Here’s a small datapoint at wouldn’t be reflected in broader economic data yet:

Student loan payments were suspended for 42 months from Covid. An absolute joke. Survey showed most people forgot the payment and filled their expense base as if it was permanently gone. Dumb by them but we’re sold a lot of stuff. The first month of repayment was Nov. 42% didn’t make payment. Of all borrowers in repayment. Nearly half.

Now, go look at consumer debt. Remember credit card interest rates were 8-13% and are now 18-24% for most.

I can continue but my point should be clear that we’ve messed with normal responsibilities so much and it’s still not entirely done being unwound and it’s clear how fragile the economy is despite the better than expected data. And a lot of things are only going to start showing in a quarter or two from here.

Latency folks. Ships don’t turn overnight. When you ignore that factor I will always be there to remind people. Keep your head down and stay flexible. Throwing your junk on the table has far more downside than upside. That is all.

[MDlaxfan76]

Today a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed strong economic growth of 3.3% in the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2023, setting growth for the year at 3.1% (by comparison, in the first three years of Trump’s term, before the pandemic, growth was 2.5%). A year ago, economists projected that the U.S. would have a recession in 2023, and forecast growth of 0.2%.

Meanwhile, unemployment remains low, wages are high, and inflation is receding. As Gabriel T. Rubin put it in the Wall Street Journal today, “The final three months of the year looked a lot like the soft landing Fed officials are seeking to achieve.”

There is a major political story behind this impressive economic one. Since 1981, lawmakers have insisted that cutting taxes, regulation, and the social safety net would create much faster and more efficient growth than was possible under the system in place between 1933 and 1981.


What Recession? Growth Ended Up Accelerating in 2023
Economy expanded 3.1% from a year earlier due to strong consumer spending and hiring
https://www.wsj.com/economy/gdp-us-econ ... ticle_pos5

hmmm, crickets from the right wing posters...

Keep up the good work!!! Things are looking up so much it's time for well deserved tax increase.

Of course there is 0.6 growth….how could there not be, inflation has caused the price to go up for most everything, while labor and the cost of manufacturing goods has not matched. I’d certainly want 2.5% growth without the inflationary costs of the past few years….anyone that would is FOS.

Good thing you're not an economist...kinda like Salty talking about the law...or telling us about how Trump has an Ivy MBA...

The growth is in real GDP, which is already inflation adjusted.

By comparison, Trump's 4 years were 1.8% real GDP growth avg annually whereas Biden's is 3.4% so far.

Now, that's not entirely fair as Trump's real GDP growth was crushed by the pandemic.

Taking a longer view is more helpful.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

Even more interesting is the per capita real GDP over the past 10 years or longer:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA

Don't believe anyone who tells you our economy isn't robust and resilient, amazingly so IMO.

And we outperform the world on the regular.

No one needs to be an economist to fully understand the difference of how people are living now vs then and how their dollar works for them.

I’m stoked we never hit (official) recession, the fed limped is along. Maybe we should thank Russia for going to war with Ukraine?

I take it that you're positing that our sending military equipment to Ukraine and the manufacture of modern replacements is driving our economic growth. Do you know the proportion of the economic activity that is the incremental spend on this equipment?

But yes, the Russian invasion exacerbated inflation due to increased energy and food costs. Energy has come back down as markets have adjusted, including the US producing far more energy than at any prior time, including per capita. Food is still impacted, but Ukraine's success in breaking the Russian embargo is helping somewhat...but big food producing areas are still impacted.

But the big inflation impact was the disruption of Covid. Despite the big drop in economic activity in the first year of Covid, inflation spiked radically...and kept on going...it's coming down now to near normal levels, but not disinflation. Fortunately wages have been rising even faster, though that too has been an inflation source.

I see housing costs, especially for first time home buyers, family move up buyers, and renters more generally, to be the biggest inflation impact that's problematically sticky. Big jump in housing costs during covid pre increases in rates. It deserves its own discussion as there are several ways that could increase for-sale supply faster than just the market dynamics, though would need legislative support which is nearly impossible right now. We're probably going to have to just live with this for awhile but it's crazy how hard it is for young people versus the boomer era much less our parents'.

[old salt]

Good thing you're not an economist...kinda like Salty talking about the law...or telling us about how Trump has an Ivy MBA...

...you're really riding that one hard.

Good thing you're not a national security advisor, given your forecast of Russia's military collapse in Ukraine. How did your gung ho summer offensive work out ?

Watch the Frontline 2.5 hr documentary on Trump's trials. How many times is "insurrection" listed in Jack Smith's charges ?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Good thing you're not an economist...kinda like Salty talking about the law...or telling us about how Trump has an Ivy MBA...

...you're really riding that one hard.

Good thing you're not a national security advisor, given your forecast of Russia's military collapse in Ukraine. How did your gung ho summer offensive work out ?

Watch the Frontline 2.5 hr documentary on Trump's trials. How many times is "insurrection" listed in Jack Smith's charges ?

How many times was bootlegging and murder mention in Al Capone's charges? I saw St. Valentines Day Massacre... wasn't quite 2.5 hours long though.

[MDlaxfan76]

Good thing you're not an economist...kinda like Salty talking about the law...or telling us about how Trump has an Ivy MBA...

...you're really riding that one hard.

Good thing you're not a national security advisor, given your forecast of Russia's military collapse in Ukraine. How did your gung ho summer offensive work out ?

Watch the Frontline 2.5 hr documentary on Trump's trials. How many times is "insurrection" listed in Jack Smith's charges ?

yes, I don't pretend to be a national security advisor, but I also definitely didn't predict a collapse...hoped for, but I made it clear that I thought any such would only happen if Ukraine had the tools from the air...which it turns out they didn't get, nor did they get the ground equipment necessary...Russia had time to build their defenses. Of course, the naysayers didn't want to give them those tools, argued they'd be wasted.

And yeah, your 'legal' discussions are pretty laughable, but even more so was your claim of Trump having an Ivy MBA.

You keep carrying water for MAGA and Trump despite all your denials. Pretend away.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/30/elon-m ... udge-voids

The peasants will fight for him....

[youthathletics]

Good thing you're not an economist...kinda like Salty talking about the law...or telling us about how Trump has an Ivy MBA...

...you're really riding that one hard.

Good thing you're not a national security advisor, given your forecast of Russia's military collapse in Ukraine. How did your gung ho summer offensive work out ?

Watch the Frontline 2.5 hr documentary on Trump's trials. How many times is "insurrection" listed in Jack Smith's charges ?

TO be clear that was MDLAX, not me.

[MDlaxfan76]

Good thing you're not an economist...kinda like Salty talking about the law...or telling us about how Trump has an Ivy MBA...

...you're really riding that one hard.

Good thing you're not a national security advisor, given your forecast of Russia's military collapse in Ukraine. How did your gung ho summer offensive work out ?

Watch the Frontline 2.5 hr documentary on Trump's trials. How many times is "insurrection" listed in Jack Smith's charges ?

TO be clear that was MDLAX, not me.

yes, that was my quip, not yours; and his response was to me...see above my response to Salty.

[a fan]

While the crowd that’s banging in everything Biden are making up hysteria and manufacturing worry behind reality…

If people want to beat their chest and lay down markers on the economy today and stop writing the book on Biden, I will be there to tell you what a knucklehead shortsighted goof you were for that. Things have held up surprisingly well so far and that’s good (though economics are sorta like the market, you still shouldn’t be a cheerleader as it pollutes thinking and decision making) but we are started a lot of the unwind of support to people in the last six months. Rent relief a moratoriums ended in June. Here’s a small datapoint at wouldn’t be reflected in broader economic data yet:

Student loan payments were suspended for 42 months from Covid. An absolute joke. Survey showed most people forgot the payment and filled their expense base as if it was permanently gone. Dumb by them but we’re sold a lot of stuff. The first month of repayment was Nov. 42% didn’t make payment. Of all borrowers in repayment. Nearly half.

Now, go look at consumer debt. Remember credit card interest rates were 8-13% and are now 18-24% for most.

I can continue but my point should be clear that we’ve messed with normal responsibilities so much and it’s still not entirely done being unwound and it’s clear how fragile the economy is despite the better than expected data. And a lot of things are only going to start showing in a quarter or two from here.

Latency folks. Ships don’t turn overnight. When you ignore that factor I will always be there to remind people. Keep your head down and stay flexible. Throwing your junk on the table has far more downside than upside. That is all.

We've been bracing...and preparing..... for the rough landing since we got the timing of the supply chain issues wrong. We did inventory just one day after the Covid shutdowns started in Spring of 2024. Put in our orders for everything from Botanicals to glass bottles. Best move we've ever made. Only thing was, we were off by when the supply chain issues would hit by two years. Lol. Missed the target, hit the tree.

Once that was aside, we started looking at the same stuff you are.....the ability of the consumer to purchase goods getting hit from a number of fronts, meaning the end of: rent abatement, direct cash from .gov, bailout cash to companies, et. al. i also think of all the unhealthy companies that would have ordinarily gone under during Covid, but got cash bailouts. Stands to reason that pent up failure would hit at some point.

2024 is likely to be a rough ride in my industry, and many others. IMHO. We're prepared for that, anyway. We'll see, and hope for the best.

[Jim Malone]

I can't wait to find out how US $34T in sovereign debt, $1T in consumer debt, good jobs numbers, terrible layoff numbers, interest rate movements, housing inventory being bought by hedgers, and 25% plus commercial building vacancies are going to affect US and world economy in 2024.

Got through 17%-21% prime rate when I started working in late 70's early 80's.
My first mortgage rate was an adjustable rate 17% with a 5% cap that could go up no more than 2% per annum.
TGRs and CATS had 20% coupons.
Fidelity Magellan was the only 401(k) provider and administrator which made its manager famous when all he had was an endless supply of capital coming in and guaranteed government bonds paying 20% which doubled capital invested in 5 years.

Good times ahead, yup!

[a fan]

I can't wait to find out how US $34T in sovereign debt, $1T in consumer debt, good jobs numbers, terrible layoff numbers, interest rate movements, housing inventory being bought by hedgers, and 25% plus commercial building vacancies are going to affect US and world economy in 2024.

Got through 17%-21% prime rate when I started working in late 70's early 80's.
My first mortgage rate was an adjustable rate 17% with a 5% cap that could go up no more than 2% per annum.

One thing I've learned is that the 1%ers running Congress will NEVER let that happen again. Not a chance.

I don't see how we get out of this....we have an entire American political party that refuses to stop spending, and refuses to raise taxes.

And the Dems are obviously not far behind.

[MDlaxfan76]

I can't wait to find out how US $34T in sovereign debt, $1T in consumer debt, good jobs numbers, terrible layoff numbers, interest rate movements, housing inventory being bought by hedgers, and 25% plus commercial building vacancies are going to affect US and world economy in 2024.

Got through 17%-21% prime rate when I started working in late 70's early 80's.
My first mortgage rate was an adjustable rate 17% with a 5% cap that could go up no more than 2% per annum.
TGRs and CATS had 20% coupons.
Fidelity Magellan was the only 401(k) provider and administrator which made its manager famous when all he had was an endless supply of capital coming in and guaranteed government bonds paying 20% which doubled capital invested in 5 years.

Good times ahead, yup!

yes, those were some darn challenging times, though housing was way more affordable despite high rates.
Stagflation was a huge bear.

[youthathletics]

I can't wait to find out how US $34T in sovereign debt, $1T in consumer debt, good jobs numbers, terrible layoff numbers, interest rate movements, housing inventory being bought by hedgers, and 25% plus commercial building vacancies are going to affect US and world economy in 2024.

Got through 17%-21% prime rate when I started working in late 70's early 80's.
My first mortgage rate was an adjustable rate 17% with a 5% cap that could go up no more than 2% per annum.

One thing I've learned is that the 1%ers running Congress will NEVER let that happen again. Not a chance.

I don't see how we get out of this....we have an entire American political party that refuses to stop spending, and refuses to raise taxes.

And the Dems are obviously not far behind.

Wait.....I thought MD and Brooklyn were just thrilled at the state of our economy, and this was just yesterday.

[NattyBohChamps04]

I can't wait to find out how US $34T in sovereign debt, $1T in consumer debt, good jobs numbers, terrible layoff numbers, interest rate movements, housing inventory being bought by hedgers, and 25% plus commercial building vacancies are going to affect US and world economy in 2024.

Got through 17%-21% prime rate when I started working in late 70's early 80's.
My first mortgage rate was an adjustable rate 17% with a 5% cap that could go up no more than 2% per annum.

One thing I've learned is that the 1%ers running Congress will NEVER let that happen again. Not a chance.

I don't see how we get out of this....we have an entire American political party that refuses to stop spending, and refuses to raise taxes.

And the Dems are obviously not far behind.

Wait.....I thought MD and Brooklyn were just thrilled at the state of our economy, and this was just yesterday.

Debt increase under Biden is some of the lowest we've had in 60+ years percentage-wise.

Economy's doing decent, but we absolutely need to reign in our debt. Trump's not gonna do it, as he did the exact opposite.

[a fan]

I can't wait to find out how US $34T in sovereign debt, $1T in consumer debt, good jobs numbers, terrible layoff numbers, interest rate movements, housing inventory being bought by hedgers, and 25% plus commercial building vacancies are going to affect US and world economy in 2024.

Got through 17%-21% prime rate when I started working in late 70's early 80's.
My first mortgage rate was an adjustable rate 17% with a 5% cap that could go up no more than 2% per annum.

One thing I've learned is that the 1%ers running Congress will NEVER let that happen again. Not a chance.

I don't see how we get out of this....we have an entire American political party that refuses to stop spending, and refuses to raise taxes.

And the Dems are obviously not far behind.

Wait.....I thought MD and Brooklyn were just thrilled at the state of our economy, and this was just yesterday.

Debt increase under Biden is some of the lowest we've had in 60+ years percentage-wise.

Economy's doing decent, but we absolutely need to reign in our debt. Trump's not gonna do it, as he did the exact opposite.

It's up the Dems.

Said that over a decade ago: there is NO WAY a R POTUS is going to cut spending. There is also NO WAY a R POTUS will raise taxes. The entire leadership and their base that's enjoying all this borrowed money should be embarrassed by their actions in my lifetime.

1953....the last time a R POTUS cut spending from one year to the next. Chew on that. It's an astonishing factoid given their nonstop rhetoric about how "Government is bad".

[youthathletics]

I can't wait to find out how US $34T in sovereign debt, $1T in consumer debt, good jobs numbers, terrible layoff numbers, interest rate movements, housing inventory being bought by hedgers, and 25% plus commercial building vacancies are going to affect US and world economy in 2024.

Got through 17%-21% prime rate when I started working in late 70's early 80's.
My first mortgage rate was an adjustable rate 17% with a 5% cap that could go up no more than 2% per annum.

One thing I've learned is that the 1%ers running Congress will NEVER let that happen again. Not a chance.

I don't see how we get out of this....we have an entire American political party that refuses to stop spending, and refuses to raise taxes.

And the Dems are obviously not far behind.

Wait.....I thought MD and Brooklyn were just thrilled at the state of our economy, and this was just yesterday.

Debt increase under Biden is some of the lowest we've had in 60+ years percentage-wise.

Economy's doing decent, but we absolutely need to reign in our debt. Trump's not gonna do it, as he did the exact opposite.

It's up the Dems.

Said that over a decade ago: there is NO WAY a R POTUS is going to cut spending. There is also NO WAY a R POTUS will raise taxes. The entire leadership and their base that's enjoying all this borrowed money should be embarrassed by their actions in my lifetime.

1953....the last time a R POTUS cut spending from one year to the next. Chew on that. It's an astonishing factoid given their nonstop rhetoric about how "Government is bad".

That’s because the r’a always cave to d’a and give them all the money they want, otherwise they cry and blame the r’s everything wrong with America therafter.

[a fan]

That’s because the r’a always cave to d’a and give them all the money they want, otherwise they cry and blame the r’s everything wrong with America therafter.

Because that's the one thing your crew is known for: concern for the "feelings" of Democrats.