OuttaNowhereWregget--Redux

[forthelaxofit]

Lehigh Schedule
Disappointing. Took a step forward last year. Looks like they didn’t want the smoke.

02/09 vs Delaware
02/16 @ Jacksonville
02/25 vs Wofford
03/02 vs Old Dominion
03/09 vs American
03/12. vs Penn State
03/16 vs Georgetown
03/23 vs Loyola
03/27 vs Bucknell
03/30 @ Army
04/06 @ Boston U
04/17 @ Navy
04/20 @ Colgate
04/24 vs Lafayette

Lehigh is strange as well. Not a good OOC outside of PSU and Jack. Flying to Florida. Kudos to them but only scheduling one game and then 9 days off.

Not sure how big a step forward 2023 was? Here’s the problem with RPI. Lehigh 35 last year. Only beat 3 teams with winning records last year - #54 St Joseph, #87 Wagner and #94 Saint Francis. Beat Patriot league teams Lafayette, Bucknell, American, BU, Holy Cross (x2) and Colgate, none of which had a winning record and who had a combined record of 41-77. But RPI gives you points for teams you lost to. 2 Loses to Loyola and 1 each to Army, Navy and Penn with 4 of those games hitting running clock. RPI doesn’t matter the margin of defeat, just that you played them. So while the RPI was 35 last year, they got smacked around when playing anyone higher than 50th.

They did drop Penn from schedule this year, but at least this year the OOC has 3 teams with 2023 RPI at 43 or better with Jacksonville, Penn St and Georgetown. Probably good bet they can pick up the 6 wins again playing in that Patriot conference, but they have an uphill battle and don’t see them getting close to the 12 wins from last year.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Here’s the problem with RPI. Lehigh 35 last year. Only beat 3 teams with winning records last year - #54 St Joseph, #87 Wagner and #94 Saint Francis. Beat Patriot league teams Lafayette, Bucknell, American, BU, Holy Cross (x2) and Colgate, none of which had a winning record and who had a combined record of 41-77. But RPI gives you points for teams you lost to. 2 Loses to Loyola and 1 each to Army, Navy and Penn with 4 of those games hitting running clock. RPI doesn’t matter the margin of defeat, just that you played them. So while the RPI was 35 last year, they got smacked around when playing anyone higher than 50th.

They did drop Penn from schedule this year, but at least this year the OOC has 3 teams with 2023 RPI at 43 or better with Jacksonville, Penn St and Georgetown. Probably good bet they can pick up the 6 wins again playing in that Patriot conference, but they have an uphill battle and don’t see them getting close to the 12 wins from last year.

Really well said. Just good common sense as to why RPI is a deeply flawed ratings system.

[Relax77]

Lehigh Schedule
Disappointing. Took a step forward last year. Looks like they didn’t want the smoke.

02/09 vs Delaware
02/16 @ Jacksonville
02/25 vs Wofford
03/02 vs Old Dominion
03/09 vs American
03/12. vs Penn State
03/16 vs Georgetown
03/23 vs Loyola
03/27 vs Bucknell
03/30 @ Army
04/06 @ Boston U
04/17 @ Navy
04/20 @ Colgate
04/24 vs Lafayette

Lehigh is strange as well. Not a good OOC outside of PSU and Jack. Flying to Florida. Kudos to them but only scheduling one game and then 9 days off.

Not sure how big a step forward 2023 was? Here’s the problem with RPI. Lehigh 35 last year. Only beat 3 teams with winning records last year - #54 St Joseph, #87 Wagner and #94 Saint Francis. Beat Patriot league teams Lafayette, Bucknell, American, BU, Holy Cross (x2) and Colgate, none of which had a winning record and who had a combined record of 41-77. But RPI gives you points for teams you lost to. 2 Loses to Loyola and 1 each to Army, Navy and Penn with 4 of those games hitting running clock. RPI doesn’t matter the margin of defeat, just that you played them. So while the RPI was 35 last year, they got smacked around when playing anyone higher than 50th.

They did drop Penn from schedule this year, but at least this year the OOC has 3 teams with 2023 RPI at 43 or better with Jacksonville, Penn St and Georgetown. Probably good bet they can pick up the 6 wins again playing in that Patriot conference, but they have an uphill battle and don’t see them getting close to the 12 wins from last year.

I was under the impression RPI also gives you credit for the score of the games. Thanks for clearing that up. They lost to Army by 1. Thought that is why they jumped up. For some reason I remember Football RPI having the scores counting. Not only for your team but your opponents games as well.
Still a little insane only 1 game on a plane road trip. Wonder if they didn’t want to play some of the other Florida teams.
And i agree. They only have 14 games here but I see them winning 9-10.

[Relax77]

Here’s the problem with RPI. Lehigh 35 last year. Only beat 3 teams with winning records last year - #54 St Joseph, #87 Wagner and #94 Saint Francis. Beat Patriot league teams Lafayette, Bucknell, American, BU, Holy Cross (x2) and Colgate, none of which had a winning record and who had a combined record of 41-77. But RPI gives you points for teams you lost to. 2 Loses to Loyola and 1 each to Army, Navy and Penn with 4 of those games hitting running clock. RPI doesn’t matter the margin of defeat, just that you played them. So while the RPI was 35 last year, they got smacked around when playing anyone higher than 50th.

They did drop Penn from schedule this year, but at least this year the OOC has 3 teams with 2023 RPI at 43 or better with Jacksonville, Penn St and Georgetown. Probably good bet they can pick up the 6 wins again playing in that Patriot conference, but they have an uphill battle and don’t see them getting close to the 12 wins from last year.

Really well said. Just good common sense as to why RPI is a deeply flawed ratings system.

So I thought RPI was your record, your opponents record and your opponents opponents record. Plus goal differential in those games. So GD isn’t there.
So to start a conversation. Since RPI is a flawed system and SOS has been flawed in all sports. What do you suggest they do to keep a ranking outside the top 25? I say add the GD in those games. It seems paramount to know your goal diffential between a team ranked 90 or a team ranked 15.
Example would be say a team was 8-8. All 8 wins were scrubs that they blew out. All 8 loses were one goal loses to 8 teams ranked in the top 30. Losing by one to those teams should count for more than just they played a rank team.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

So I thought RPI was your record, your opponents record and your opponents opponents record. Plus goal differential in those games. So GD isn’t there.
So to start a conversation. Since RPI is a flawed system and SOS has been flawed in all sports. What do you suggest they do to keep a ranking outside the top 25? I say add the GD in those games. It seems paramount to know your goal diffential between a team ranked 90 or a team ranked 15.
Example would be say a team was 8-8. All 8 wins were scrubs that they blew out. All 8 loses were one goal loses to 8 teams ranked in the top 30. Losing by one to those teams should count for more than just they played a rank team.

Strength of schedule is meaningful. There are aspects of RPI that are relevant. NCAA basketball has adopted an altered RPI formula to rank teams. That’s in order for lacrosse. I agree with your example. That kind of common sense logic needs to be factored into the formula to more accurately rank teams.

[laxfan9999]

Two different models with one taking in differential

https://www.laxnumbers.com/ratings.php?y=2023&v=501

https://lacrossereference.com/stats/rpi-d1-women/

Laxnumbers had Denver at 11 and Clemson at 17 which were two of the outliers. Laxnumbers gives you the other teams rating plus or minus the goal differential. It also caps you to your rating if you beat a team 10 points below or more by 10 or more goals. Just another interesting way to look at it.

Had also heard that ACC women's coaches had talked last year about making sure the out of conference games were either good teams or easy wins as they didnt want to lose to the teams in the middle to hurt conference RPI.

[Relax77]

Two different models with one taking in differential

https://www.laxnumbers.com/ratings.php?y=2023&v=501

https://lacrossereference.com/stats/rpi-d1-women/

Laxnumbers had Denver at 11 and Clemson at 17 which were two of the outliers. Laxnumbers gives you the other teams rating plus or minus the goal differential. It also caps you to your rating if you beat a team 10 points below or more by 10 or more goals. Just another interesting way to look at it.

Had also heard that ACC women's coaches had talked last year about making sure the out of conference games were either good teams or easy wins as they didnt want to lose to the teams in the middle to hurt conference RPI.

That’s how US. Club lax does their rankings and it is extremely flawed.

[Womenslaxxfan]

I think rpi is a valuable tool the way it’s set up. Its flaw for women’s lax is well known which is that the number of games played is too low to provide an optimal measure (versus men’s basketball for example).
And goal differential is just too random given the small number of games. Clemson loses to UVA last year with running clock but nearly beats notre dame? Too much noise for a statistical ranking.

In my opinion, rpi plus SOS (which I think is an underrated component of rpi relative to wins) plus eye test is good enough to select women’s tourney field—particularly since only 4-6 teams have a shot at winning in any given year (unlike basketball) and particularly since there is almost no financial disadvantage or advantage to being one of the bubble in teams versus the bubble out…

[laxfan9999]

Hockey just uses the Pairwise computer rankings and that is how the tournament is picked. In simplest terms, the Pairwise system takes three factors and uses comparisons to determine which team is the best in college hockey. The system uses each team's Ratings Percentage Index (RPI), records against common opponents, and head-to-head wins to make a comparison between teams. The ncaa field is filled by pairwise ranking after conference champs.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

2.18 Dartmouth
2.20 Bryant
2.23 Arizona St

3.2 Villanova
3.5 at Syracuse
3.9 vs Johns Hopkins at Charlotte, NC
3.11 Denver
3.16 at Towson
3.22 Elon
3.24 Campbell
3.29 at Monmouth

4.6 Delaware
4.9 Rutgers
4.11 at William & Mary
4.14 at Drexel
4.21 Hofstra
4.25 Stanford

[Brownlax]

2.18 Dartmouth
2.20 Bryant
2.23 Arizona St

3.2 Villanova
3.5 at Syracuse
3.9 vs Johns Hopkins at Charlotte, NC
3.11 Denver
3.16 at Towson
3.22 Elon
3.24 Campbell
3.29 at Monmouth

4.6 Delaware
4.9 Rutgers
4.11 at William & Mary
4.14 at Drexel
4.21 Hofstra
4.25 Stanford

Usually see a tougher schedule from SBU.

[Womenslaxxfan]

2.18 Dartmouth
2.20 Bryant
2.23 Arizona St

3.2 Villanova
3.5 at Syracuse
3.9 vs Johns Hopkins at Charlotte, NC
3.11 Denver
3.16 at Towson
3.22 Elon
3.24 Campbell
3.29 at Monmouth

4.6 Delaware
4.9 Rutgers
4.11 at William & Mary
4.14 at Drexel
4.21 Hofstra
4.25 Stanford

One or two small wobbles, and stony brook could see their rpi out of the top 20. Theirs opponents rpi and opponents opponents rpi won’t be strong. So they have to win ALOT of games….

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Usually see a tougher schedule from SBU.

Agreed. Bryant, Arizona St and Villanova were especially conspicuous.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

One or two small wobbles, and stony brook could see their rpi out of the top 20. Theirs opponents rpi and opponents opponents rpi won’t be strong. So they have to win ALOT of games….

Agreed! And the late add of Denver to their schedule makes me think Spallina realized he was going to be woefully short and started dialing for RPI/SOS until the Pioneers agreed to take the plane ride to the Island this year.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

In other coaching news, Hollie Schleicher named assistant at Cornell a few weeks back. Schoellkopf a pretty good spot to start your coaching career. Safe to say she will demand defensive and ground ball commitment from her players—“Kamikaze” commitment as one poster put it.

Yell Cornell

On Schleicher--her entire career changed during the fateful February '23 regular season game at Northwestern. She was injured during the contest and never got back to her normal playing speed or impact. (Not to get off track here--but Izzy Scane coming back from injury bolder and stronger and more skilled is a rarity. Unfortunately, most players come back from injury closer to Schleicher than Scane.) The impression I got was that Hollie was going against bigger tougher players in Evanston and found herself overpowered/out of her depth somehow. (So very difficult to find out about player injuries. For the most part a given players injury status is guarded like launch codes--most especially at Boston College.) She played sparingly the rest of 2023. A sad ending to a great career which includes a national championship among her many awards and accolades. I hope she does well in her coaching career.

? Who wants to tell him?

No one took your cue, Grateful Red. Tell me what?

[Relax77]

2.18 Dartmouth
2.20 Bryant
2.23 Arizona St

3.2 Villanova
3.5 at Syracuse
3.9 vs Johns Hopkins at Charlotte, NC
3.11 Denver
3.16 at Towson
3.22 Elon
3.24 Campbell
3.29 at Monmouth

4.6 Delaware
4.9 Rutgers
4.11 at William & Mary
4.14 at Drexel
4.21 Hofstra
4.25 Stanford

One or two small wobbles, and stony brook could see their rpi out of the top 20. Theirs opponents rpi and opponents opponents rpi won’t be strong. So they have to win ALOT of games….

Funny. When all other teams are playing 15 games, SB went with 17.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Funny. When all other teams are playing 15 games, SB went with 17.

Apart from the Ancient Eight, 15 game schedules are the exception, not the rule, among the rest of D1. The clear majority of teams play 16 to 17 games per season.

[spidey4]

Funny. When all other teams are playing 15 games, SB went with 17.

Apart from the Ancient Eight, 15 game schedules are the exception, not the rule, among the rest of D1. The clear majority of teams play 16 to 17 games per season.

Because I'm crazy busy this morning, I went through the top 10 schedules. UNC is the only one playing only 15 games. The rest are 16 or 17 regular season games (I could be off if any of the games listed were only scrimmages but not labeled that way).

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Funny. When all other teams are playing 15 games, SB went with 17.

Apart from the Ancient Eight, 15 game schedules are the exception, not the rule, among the rest of D1. The clear majority of teams play 16 to 17 games per season.

Because I'm crazy busy this morning, I went through the top 10 schedules. UNC is the only one playing only 15 games. The rest are 16 or 17 regular season games (I could be off if any of the games listed were only scrimmages but not labeled that way).

So how many would you have done if you weren't crazy busy? I'm kidding, of course.

Your research is spot on. You would find the same (16-17 games) with the overwhelming majority of the rest of D1 too.

Anything scheduled before February 9th of 2024 is a scrimmage.

[Relax77]

Funny. When all other teams are playing 15 games, SB went with 17.

Apart from the Ancient Eight, 15 game schedules are the exception, not the rule, among the rest of D1. The clear majority of teams play 16 to 17 games per season.

Because I'm crazy busy this morning, I went through the top 10 schedules. UNC is the only one playing only 15 games. The rest are 16 or 17 regular season games (I could be off if any of the games listed were only scrimmages but not labeled that way).

. I guess I remembered wrong. For some reason I thought multiple teams scheduled 15 this year instead of 16.