Way too early Final Four

[HooDat]

UVA
Duke
ND
Cornell/MD

this strikes me as the most realistic expectation. Although to quibble, if the list is in order of likelihood/seeding, I would probably tweak it a bit and go: Duke, UVA, ND, Cornell/UMD.

[GaitsRightHand]

UVA
Duke
ND
Cornell/MD

this strikes me as the most realistic expectation. Although to quibble, if the list is in order of likelihood/seeding, I would probably tweak it a bit and go: Duke, UVA, ND, Cornell/UMD.

Completely agree with your quibble.

Based off of what we know, I'd put Duke at the #1. That 4th spot could be Cornell, MD, or someone unlisted. Totally up for grabs. But.. I am pretty confident with the first 3. ACC>

Interested to watch Cuse, PSU, and Princeton throughout the season as well.

[FOGO_Daze]

Notre Dame
Duke
ARMY
Virginia

[gymman1031]

I am late to the discussion. While I am not predicting this, does Hopkins take that next step under Coach Milliman and make the Final Four in 2024?

[FannOLax]

Tanner Demling on Lacrosse Bucket gives us this way-early Top Ten:

1. Duke Blue Devils

2. Virginia Cavaliers

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

4. Penn State Nittany Lions

5. Maryland Terrapins

6. Army West Point

7. Johns Hopkins Blue Jays

8. Cornell Big Red

9. Yale Bulldogs

10. Syracuse Orange

https://lacrossebucket.com/2024/01/11/t ... preseason/

[OSVAlacrosse]

Also a lot of hype on Denver this year

[ohmilax34]

Also a lot of hype on Denver this year

I like Denver this year. They seem pretty complete. It seems the biggest question mark is the coaching change.

[ohmilax34]

Quick off the cuff final four:
Duke
Johns Hopkins
Maryland
Virginia

Wasn't that the 2005 final four?

[Wheels]

Tanner Demling on Lacrosse Bucket gives us this way-early Top Ten:

1. Duke Blue Devils

2. Virginia Cavaliers

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

4. Penn State Nittany Lions

5. Maryland Terrapins

6. Army West Point

7. Johns Hopkins Blue Jays

8. Cornell Big Red

9. Yale Bulldogs

10. Syracuse Orange

https://lacrossebucket.com/2024/01/11/t ... preseason/

Hard to say "underrated" when you're still in the top 10 but Johns Hopkins at 7 is too low, IMO. Kinda feels like Penn State is too high.

[FannOLax]

Tanner Demling on Lacrosse Bucket gives us this way-early Top Ten:

1. Duke Blue Devils

2. Virginia Cavaliers

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

4. Penn State Nittany Lions

5. Maryland Terrapins

6. Army West Point

7. Johns Hopkins Blue Jays

8. Cornell Big Red

9. Yale Bulldogs

10. Syracuse Orange

https://lacrossebucket.com/2024/01/11/t ... preseason/

Hard to say "underrated" when you're still in the top 10 but Johns Hopkins at 7 is too low, IMO. Kinda feels like Penn State is too high.

I see your point and don't disagree. Jays look like they can be very strong in 2024. It's easier for these polls to look backward, not (as they should) forward.

[keno in reno]

[Hard to say "underrated" when you're still in the top 10 but Johns Hopkins at 7 is too low, IMO. Kinda feels like Penn State is too high.

Agree on PSU. Their screwjob against Duke obscured their fortunate draw/wins against a mediocre Princeton team and young Army squad. They were the lucky dog last year in the bracket. They'll be good, but I don't see them as having any better chance at the final 4 than Cornell, MD, JHU, Syracuse and maybe even Michigan (who would have made it to the final 4 last year with that draw as well).

[Wheels]

[Hard to say "underrated" when you're still in the top 10 but Johns Hopkins at 7 is too low, IMO. Kinda feels like Penn State is too high.

Agree on PSU. Their screwjob against Duke obscured their fortunate draw/wins against a mediocre Princeton team and young Army squad. They were the lucky dog last year in the bracket. They'll be good, but I don't see them as having any better chance at the final 4 than Cornell, MD, JHU, Syracuse and maybe even Michigan (who would have made it to the final 4 last year with that draw as well).

Having a great goalie like they do certainly covers up a lot of defensive mistakes, but that's a lot to put on your goalie all the time like PSU does to Fracyon. Their problems at the FOGO spot compound all of it. Like last season, they'll be really old across that offense. Tons of experience. But they also snuck up on a lot of teams last season. That won't be the case this season.

With Hop, it's just how tough they are. They're going to be physical all over the field for the whole game. Relentless. If you let Angelus be a feeder, he's going to ring up 3 or 4 assists and get everyone rolling. Melendez is so damn dynamic. Beats you with his strength. Beats you with his speed. Beats you with his change-of-direction. Beats you with his shot. Goes left or right. And they plugged their biggest hole in the portal with a very good goalie. Hard to see where there's holes in that team. I know some are worried about their offensive midfield but that's probably more of their second line.

Luckily, we have 2 weeks until we start to find out on the field!

[10stone5]

[Hard to say "underrated" when you're still in the top 10 but Johns Hopkins at 7 is too low, IMO. Kinda feels like Penn State is too high.

Agree on PSU. Their screwjob against Duke obscured their fortunate draw/wins against a mediocre Princeton team and young Army squad. They were the lucky dog last year in the bracket. They'll be good, but I don't see them as having any better chance at the final 4 than Cornell, MD, JHU, Syracuse and maybe even Michigan (who would have made it to the final 4 last year with that draw as well).

Having a great goalie like they do certainly covers up a lot of defensive mistakes, but that's a lot to put on your goalie all the time like PSU does to Fracyon. Their problems at the FOGO spot compound all of it. Like last season, they'll be really old across that offense. Tons of experience. But they also snuck up on a lot of teams last season. That won't be the case this season.

With Hop, it's just how tough they are. They're going to be physical all over the field for the whole game. Relentless. If you let Angelus be a feeder, he's going to ring up 3 or 4 assists and get everyone rolling. Melendez is so damn dynamic. Beats you with his strength. Beats you with his speed. Beats you with his change-of-direction. Beats you with his shot. Goes left or right. And they plugged their biggest hole in the portal with a very good goalie. Hard to see where there's holes in that team. I know some are worried about their offensive midfield but that's probably more of their second line.

Luckily, we have 2 weeks until we start to find out on the field!

PSU is starting Malone, the younger Traynor and the freshman Lehman at attack, with a number of experienced players as backup to mix and match - Donnelly, a high producer from Drexel, a former 5-star who’s yet to see the field, Will Peden a former starter.
Midfield is a question mark, unless Tambroni runs any number of attack through the midfield, that could include highly rated freshman Liam Matthews.
Aside from the question of who runs with whom, they’re stacked on offense.
Defense, they’ve been bringing in top talent, so they’ll be OK there whether Posey comes back at full strength or not.
They’re all in on Chase Mullins at face-off, betting on that guy as the 5-star he was originally rated as prior to transferring from UNC.

[HopFan16]

[Hard to say "underrated" when you're still in the top 10 but Johns Hopkins at 7 is too low, IMO. Kinda feels like Penn State is too high.

Agree on PSU. Their screwjob against Duke obscured their fortunate draw/wins against a mediocre Princeton team and young Army squad. They were the lucky dog last year in the bracket. They'll be good, but I don't see them as having any better chance at the final 4 than Cornell, MD, JHU, Syracuse and maybe even Michigan (who would have made it to the final 4 last year with that draw as well).

Having a great goalie like they do certainly covers up a lot of defensive mistakes, but that's a lot to put on your goalie all the time like PSU does to Fracyon. Their problems at the FOGO spot compound all of it. Like last season, they'll be really old across that offense. Tons of experience. But they also snuck up on a lot of teams last season. That won't be the case this season.

With Hop, it's just how tough they are. They're going to be physical all over the field for the whole game. Relentless. If you let Angelus be a feeder, he's going to ring up 3 or 4 assists and get everyone rolling. Melendez is so damn dynamic. Beats you with his strength. Beats you with his speed. Beats you with his change-of-direction. Beats you with his shot. Goes left or right. And they plugged their biggest hole in the portal with a very good goalie. Hard to see where there's holes in that team. I know some are worried about their offensive midfield but that's probably more of their second line.

Luckily, we have 2 weeks until we start to find out on the field!

If the Jays have a weakness, at least relative to some other top teams, it's faceoffs. They lose Narewski, who, while quite literally never healthy, still had some very big games, and his loss wasn't addressed through the portal. On top of that, Mazzone is gone, and he was an important part of the faceoff group (much bigger loss for faceoffs than for the close D, IMO). Dunn and Callahan should scrape together a ~50% year as a tandem, but there will probably be games where possession is tilted toward the other team. Your view of the Jays FO crew might be skewed a bit because for whatever reason, they seem to do pretty well against Wierman. But some of us are slightly concerned for FO matchups against Denver, Michigan, OSU, etc. At least Reilly at Georgetown and LaSalla at UVA are gone, so it might not be as tough a schedule of opposing FOGOs as it could have been.

Offensive midfield should be fine, perhaps quite good, provided key guys (Collison, English, Peshko, etc.) stay healthy. They return seven different middies who scored at least 10 points (a few of them, like McDermott, also not healthy last year) and add some highly touted freshmen to that group. Plus, I think transition will be emphasized this year, as they've got a stable of thoroughbreds at the defensive midfield for what feels like the first time in a long time.

[10stone5]

[Hard to say "underrated" when you're still in the top 10 but Johns Hopkins at 7 is too low, IMO. Kinda feels like Penn State is too high.

Agree on PSU. Their screwjob against Duke obscured their fortunate draw/wins against a mediocre Princeton team and young Army squad. They were the lucky dog last year in the bracket. They'll be good, but I don't see them as having any better chance at the final 4 than Cornell, MD, JHU, Syracuse and maybe even Michigan (who would have made it to the final 4 last year with that draw as well).

Having a great goalie like they do certainly covers up a lot of defensive mistakes, but that's a lot to put on your goalie all the time like PSU does to Fracyon. Their problems at the FOGO spot compound all of it. Like last season, they'll be really old across that offense. Tons of experience. But they also snuck up on a lot of teams last season. That won't be the case this season.

With Hop, it's just how tough they are. They're going to be physical all over the field for the whole game. Relentless. If you let Angelus be a feeder, he's going to ring up 3 or 4 assists and get everyone rolling. Melendez is so damn dynamic. Beats you with his strength. Beats you with his speed. Beats you with his change-of-direction. Beats you with his shot. Goes left or right. And they plugged their biggest hole in the portal with a very good goalie. Hard to see where there's holes in that team. I know some are worried about their offensive midfield but that's probably more of their second line.

Luckily, we have 2 weeks until we start to find out on the field!

If the Jays have a weakness, at least relative to some other top teams, it's faceoffs. They lose Narewski, who, while quite literally never healthy, still had some very big games, and his loss wasn't addressed through the portal. On top of that, Mazzone is gone, and he was an important part of the faceoff group (much bigger loss for faceoffs than for the close D, IMO). Dunn and Callahan should scrape together a ~50% year as a tandem, but there will probably be games where possession is tilted toward the other team. Your view of the Jays FO crew might be skewed a bit because for whatever reason, they seem to do pretty well against Wierman. But some of us are slightly concerned for FO matchups against Denver, Michigan, OSU, etc. At least Reilly at Georgetown and LaSalla at UVA are gone, so it might not be as tough a schedule of opposing FOGOs as it could have been.

Offensive midfield should be fine, perhaps quite good, provided key guys (Collison, English, Peshko, etc.) stay healthy. They return seven different middies who scored at least 10 points (a few of them, like McDermott, also not healthy last year) and add some highly touted freshmen to that group. Plus, I think transition will be emphasized this year, as they've got a stable of thoroughbreds at the defensive midfield for what feels like the first time in a long time.

A real strength for JHU.

I could see Collison and one of the other midfielders as All American, as in, the top 9-10 midfielders.

The 1st team AA midfield, they all graduated.

So, you got Collison and one of the others as possible 2nd, 3rd team midfield.

[Itsallgood]

What are your thoughts about Towson for 2024?

I havent really looked at them. I know my model had them with the 35th offense and 24th defense last year, so I would expect them to improve on that 6-9 record. That is a guess, because I dont know what they are losing.

I think I see them as an NCAA team. They were very close last year, lost some close games, seemed to start clicking at the end of the year. And they have some good young talent that should mature.

You have to think Delaware takes a step back, so there is no reason they cant compete for the conference title. Tough to be 6-9 with a +22 goal differential (even taking out Hampton)

Unless Gilardi can build something like what Sowell did at SBU it sort of looks like it’s Del/Towson for the foreseeable future. Seems to me like times up on Tierney at Hofstra and they're zombies until a transition. Still early but Fairfield hasnt found anything close to early Towers and the prior coach I’m spacing on at Fairfield. To a certain degree they like Hobart and a couple of other smaller solid but not elite for elite cost schools have been hit hard by Boston U and Richmond. Drexel goes as their Canadian eligibility and amateur interests go.

Stonybrook brings back a lot and played Deleware tough in conference championship. Was a close game. Dillon Palinetti is still there and should have a huge yr. Blake Behlen is back and many more. They can compete this yr for that conference with Deleware losing some key players.

Palonetti shoots way too much for a guy shooting 29%

[10stone5]

What are your thoughts about Towson for 2024?

I havent really looked at them. I know my model had them with the 35th offense and 24th defense last year, so I would expect them to improve on that 6-9 record. That is a guess, because I dont know what they are losing.

I think I see them as an NCAA team. They were very close last year, lost some close games, seemed to start clicking at the end of the year. And they have some good young talent that should mature.

You have to think Delaware takes a step back, so there is no reason they cant compete for the conference title. Tough to be 6-9 with a +22 goal differential (even taking out Hampton)

Unless Gilardi can build something like what Sowell did at SBU it sort of looks like it’s Del/Towson for the foreseeable future. Seems to me like times up on Tierney at Hofstra and they're zombies until a transition. Still early but Fairfield hasnt found anything close to early Towers and the prior coach I’m spacing on at Fairfield. To a certain degree they like Hobart and a couple of other smaller solid but not elite for elite cost schools have been hit hard by Boston U and Richmond. Drexel goes as their Canadian eligibility and amateur interests go.

Stonybrook brings back a lot and played Deleware tough in conference championship. Was a close game. Dillon Palinetti is still there and should have a huge yr. Blake Behlen is back and many more. They can compete this yr for that conference with Deleware losing some key players.

Palonetti shoots way too much for a guy shooting 29%

I’m ok with Pallonetti shooting constantly.
But I really like that Armitage guy.

Gilardi should be OK - Hens look like this is their last year in the CAA, so I can see SBU as a conference title contender year after year.

[HopFan16]

They’re all in on Chase Mullins at face-off, betting on that guy as the 5-star he was originally rated as prior to transferring from UNC.

Mullins has had his moments (e.g. he got the better of the Jays FO group in their meeting last year, which was basically the deciding factor in a double overtime game) BUT I think you'd know by now if he was going to be the 5-star/elite player some hoped. 46% for the season, and wasn't much better in his brief playing time as a freshman at UNC. Not saying he can't improve on that, but faceoff is one of the positions where I feel like it's rare that guys get significantly better over the course of their careers (in fact, sometimes the opposite happens and guys decline as they wear down and accumulate injuries). Usually you know from the very start if a FOGO has "it." There are exceptions of course, but I wouldn't bet on a junior FOGO to suddenly turn into a different guy.

[terp talk]

1--Maryland
2--Hopkins
3--UVA
4--Michigan

Next 4 in no order---Penn State, Notre Dame, Princeton, Duke

Maybe---Georgetown, Rutgers

Note--I hope everyone is sleeping on Maryland, but the Terps play everyone on this list except Duke and Georgetown.
PS --they scrimmage Duke and Georgetown

[Laxfan23]

Three Big10 teams in final four with one ACC??….not a chance