NCAA reorg imminent

[Farfromgeneva]

Because out-of-state students pay about three times what in-state students pay in tuition. What does that have to do with Saban? The Flutie Effect.

I'd bet that the full pay pecentage for Bama OOS is pretty low. The game at Bama is to price it so that most OOS families will not pay much more than what Bama's in-state sticker price is.

If you have a 32 ACT and a 3.5 HS GPA, you get an automatic "presidential" merit scholarship (i.e. discount) worth $28k per year. 30 ACT and 3.5 gets you $24k per year. IS tuition is $11k, OOS tuition is $32k. Room and board is $14k.

So the Saban effect is not getting OOS kids to pay $46k per year to attend Bama. Duh.

The Saban effect is making UA visible and popular and cool enough so that OOS kids may want to apply and go to a school that would otherwise not be attractive and on their radar. But UA could never enroll those kids if they charged the parents full OOS rates.

So if Johnny wants to go to UA, UA is viable if the parents only have to pay $25-30k all-in OOS. Since $25-30k is about what those parents would pay to send Johnny to their Home State U at in-state tuition rates.

We know several Colorado families who sent their mildly smart kids to Bama OOS since it didn't cost any more than going to CU or CSU. And they could also brag about the huge scholarship Johnny got -- because Johnny is so very smart.

I suspect the Coach Prime effect will help CU (already 45% OOS) pull in even more OOS kids (CA and TX have long been the two biggest OOS markets for CU).

Yep….

https://www.nacubo.org/Research/2021/NA ... ting-Study

I read one of these years ago when financing a college dorm. VP of Finance provided it. Pretty much what you said.

Maybe Georgia’s different because Hope is easy a new super generous. B+ average in HS and 3.0 in college maintenance and you get 15 credit hours per semester covered at a state school or the solar equivalent at private in state (Emory, ga tech, scad, berry, few others worth noting in not). Because I hear 5-10 stories in my circle every year of kid looking at Davidson, Emory, Ga Tech, Wake, Duke and other regions equivalents who end up at Tenn or Al and are spending 50-60k a year. Not whining not happy just doing it. As if it was their kids choice because they did what they needed to in order to have the good options so fine I’ll pay for it to go to Girls of SEC U. Suppose it you combine the [ “sure I’ll buy you a BNW/Land Rover/BMW if you do well in HS at graduation” + strip club unable to expense on business trip or conference ] savings by sending them there is six figures these days so there’s a little return on that.

[ggait]

surprised doc hasn't posted this yet from his *conferences blowing up* feed:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb ... 1gPDBs%7C1

long story short, the big 12 commish and some of his cronies buckled and basically let texas and okla out for free-ish. they'll lose some on not getting a full media payout for year 1 (only?) but will make back an undetermined amount thru other means including... an espn bridge payment. this is in lieu of as much as:
~ $80 million or so each in 1 year gor + exit
or
~ $100 million total for the 2, supposedly negotiated as their way out one year early to cut ties. which turns out isn't a payment but mostly a forfeiture of getting money from the b1g 12 when they're no longer in the league.

so... it's one year instead of 13 for a gor, but i'd have to think clemmy and fsu are salivating. and unc.

at least several ad's including ksu are dumbfounded it went down this way.. reportedly.

Been thinking the same thing but presume he’s busy with work. Never doubted he works hard. Just the grandiose statements with no skin in the game and eagerness to take gains for claims while shedding risk to his credibility for the vast plethora of statements and projections that end up grossly incorrect.

Have indeed been busy with work … including two cases headed to trial unless they settle. On Tuesday, drove into the office at 4:30 am.

Anyway, the latest rumors:

Now news is coming out of South Carolina that Clemson may be announcing its departure from the league later this month.

It has long been speculated Clemson has similar feelings as Florida State regarding the ACC’s current financial gap compared to the SEC and Big Ten — but there hadn’t been the kinds of public rumblings from Clemson that FSU administrators have been so freely airing.

That changed last week with two bombshell reports. Gene Sapakoff of the Post & Courier first reported that Clemson administrators were in talks with both the SEC and Big Ten while Larry Williams of Tigers Illustrated stated he expects Clemson to announce their departure from the ACC in October.

https://www.tomahawknation.com/platform ... ec-big-ten

DocBarrister

It is 11/1. Did I miss the memo about Clemson bailing from the ACC?

Clemson is currently 4-4 overall and 2-4 in the weak sauce ACC.

So I assume Clemson is heading off to Conference USA?

[44WeWantMore]

He can't do that do that to our pledges.

Only we can do that to our pledges.

[SCLaxAttack]

More evidence (as if it was necessary) the NC$$ is in business to keep the Power conferences, and television, happy: No more NIT automatic bids for winners of their league's college basketball season championship. Gotta get the lower tier P6 teams into the post-season by hell or high water.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... nce-champs

[OCanada]

House v NCAA. This could end the NCAA given NCAA potential liability bs its Assets. Something on the order of $4.2 billion liability vs 800 million. Article on cbssports. I could not copy the link.

[44WeWantMore]

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/sto ... -ncaa-case

[Farfromgeneva]

Where’s all the experts lecturing on this dead linear cable model tied to this dead org? If not for the video game licensing royalties, the NCAA would already be insolvent.

Why all the projections about the future of lacrosse are abstractions and nothing more.

[OCanada]

NIL tracking site. Over a billion with an interesting concentration but hardly surprising


https://www.nildealnow.com/more-half-1- ... one-sport/

[wgdsr]

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/sto ... -ncaa-case

no lawyer here, but i can see a win with nil prohibitions getting tossed, revenue sharing being the thing, and from there getting down to the negotiating table.
can't see former athletes getting damages, o'bannon be damned.

and then there's the next logical step, it coming out of the hides of non-revenue sports instead of new buildings or bloated athletic departments enriching a lot of middle aged folks. this also damages lower d1 [and maybe d2 and d3], who get payouts from the nc$$ as well.

[Farfromgeneva]

Don’t think this hurts D3 at all which was already built in a different manner. Probably helps d3 as folks can give more freely. We got jammed up because a friend of a family helps our for a kid in Cali to finish college at Hobart and we’re out on a million and one sanctions by the NCAA over it. And partly because we had a D1 sport or it wouldn’t have been on the radar likely.

Too bad this guy got a four year education because someone cared enough and it had nothing to do with sports. He was a good football player but hardly NFL caliber like the one we had a few years after this one.

https://www.marinij.com/2009/08/02/mr-t ... -area/amp/

NCAA has been a joke for so long I can’t wait for it to die off.

[wgdsr]

Don’t think this hurts D3 at all which was already built in a different manner. Probably helps d3 as folks can give more freely. We got jammed up because a friend of a family helps our for a kid in Cali to finish college at Hobart and we’re out on a million and one sanctions by the NCAA over it. And partly because we had a D1 sport or it wouldn’t have been on the radar likely.

Too bad this guy got a four year education because someone cared enough and it had nothing to do with sports. He was a good football player but hardly NFL caliber like the one we had a few years after this one.

https://www.marinij.com/2009/08/02/mr-t ... -area/amp/

NCAA has been a joke for so long I can’t wait for it to die off.

as i said about d3, i don't know what the trickle down is. it'd seem less complex rules and regs would be a win, but you still need something to hold it together.

i'm just familiar with several data points in d3. one of which... the nc$$ runs post-season tourneys, so of course that means they're controlling the pursestrings as tight as humanly possible... result for example in lacrosse? a miniscule amount of at larges into the post-season. because of course, you can't have 8 more teams travelling to a game if it's on the nc$$'s dime. that'd seem like a win if and when they get nuked.

but again, someone has to be in charge with a bent on athletes, and not the org.

[Farfromgeneva]

Don’t think this hurts D3 at all which was already built in a different manner. Probably helps d3 as folks can give more freely. We got jammed up because a friend of a family helps our for a kid in Cali to finish college at Hobart and we’re out on a million and one sanctions by the NCAA over it. And partly because we had a D1 sport or it wouldn’t have been on the radar likely.

Too bad this guy got a four year education because someone cared enough and it had nothing to do with sports. He was a good football player but hardly NFL caliber like the one we had a few years after this one.

https://www.marinij.com/2009/08/02/mr-t ... -area/amp/

NCAA has been a joke for so long I can’t wait for it to die off.

as i said about d3, i don't know what the trickle down is. it'd seem less complex rules and regs would be a win, but you still need something to hold it together.

i'm just familiar with several data points in d3. one of which... the nc$$ runs post-season tourneys, so of course that means they're controlling the pursestrings as tight as humanly possible... result for example in lacrosse? a miniscule amount of at larges into the post-season. because of course, you can't have 8 more teams travelling to a game if it's on the nc$$'s dime. that'd seem like a win if and when they get nuked.

but again, someone has to be in charge with a bent on athletes, and not the org.

Political economy of institutions. They evolve to represent themselves over their constituency.

Aq system would have to be tossed for playoffs at D3 to get much worse as the travel rule for flights really hurts FB and BB at the D3 level. Having no outside money flow into programs effectively at the D3 level will open up which will be massive on the margin to pay for kids to like finish a four year degree as example.

And they don’t need rules the regional committees are an absolute joke. The first regional ranking for D3 football they cutoff group 2 at sevens instead of the supposed to be ten because “the call lasted too long” they acknowledged on my buddy’s D3 football podcast. They already abuse d3 more money and participation externally will probably help and they’ve blown up so many conferences to work the AQ that colleges can’t afford to lose that system of access now.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/i ... 1464734010

[Farfromgeneva]

So…Clemson finished the year in a three way tie for 6th Place in the ACC behind Va and Ga Tech, NC State, LVille and FSU. FSU looking good for a playoff spot but likely to get waxed in the first rd against UGA or Mich. Backup QB and others got nicked up in the UF game. (Their coach is rock solid however)

All that talk about a team going to the Pop Tart Bowl. (Formerly known as the Cheese It Bowl, a game named after a snack only octogenarians or people in Colorado/Bay Area/Amsterdam can love like Nilla wafers and Bugles).

[Essexfenwick]

SEC and B1G will pull away and form a 38 team separate enterprise. There will be 4 teams added. Notre Dame, 2 mountain west time zone teams (Colorado, Utah,Arizona) and somehow they need to get New England region .. maybe BC or Umass much like Rutgers addition)

If they wanted to pair back to a 32 team nfl style league Purdue, Michigan State, Northwestern, Auburn, Miss State and Vanderbilt are on the chopping block

Big Ten East
Umass
Penn state
Rutgers
UMD
Ohio State
Michigan
Indiana
Notre Dame

Big Ten West
Illinois
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Nebraska
UCLA
USC
Oregon
Washington

SEC East
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Kentucky
Tennessee
LSU
Ol’Miss
Alabama

SEC West
Arkansas
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M
Colorado
Utah / Arizona

[Farfromgeneva]

Odds are pretty good that ESPN will be owned by redbird (if not a major shop like KKR, Cerberus, Oaktree, TPG, Ares, Fortress, etc). Every Rosicrucian based on the linear cable model, including who’s included in the final cohort and who’s oth, is subject to change.

https://www.wsj.com/business/media/form ... 7b?mod=mhp

What's News

Joe Flint

RedBird has expanded its media holdings in recent years and owns stakes in the production companies Skydance Media and Artists Equity, the studio launched by Ben Affleck and Matt Damon. It also has partnerships with several sports leagues including the NFL and ownership positions in regional sports networks including YES, the television home of the New York Yankees.

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Shell had been serving as an informal consultant to RedBird before entertaining talks to take a permanent position, people familiar with the matter said. He has a more than two decade relationship with RedBird Capital founder and managing partner Gerry Cardinale.

The post Shell is taking is similar to the one Cardinale discussed with Bob Iger before he opted to return to
Disney
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Other RedBird investments include Hidden Pigeon, a children and family content company whose partners include children’s book author Mo Willems and EverPass Media, a firm that distributes NFL games to bars, restaurants and hotels.

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Before his departure as chief executive of NBCUniversal, Shell was one of the media industry’s most prominent executives. He held senior roles at Comcast and NBCU including heading the Universal Pictures movie studio and international operations. Before joining Comcast in 2005, Shell held positions at Disney and Fox.

At NBCUniversal, Shell was an early advocate of releasing movies on the company’s Peacock streaming platform at the same time or soon after their theatrical release. He often dove into the minutia of the movie and television business.

Shell is the second former senior NBCU executive to land at RedBird. Jeff Zucker, who previously was also a CEO of NBCU, and more recently ran CNN, now heads RedBird IMI, a partnership between the private-equity firm and International Media Investments, an Abu Dhabi-based media holding company.

Write to Joe Flint at [email protected]

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[Farfromgeneva]

You know...it's entirely possible that some element of FSU trying so hard pulbicly to run from the ACC hurt them in the college playoff evaluation...More them being on their 3rd QB and their best win being a +/-10 ish LSU team in week one that has three Ls on the year, but I'm sure they are wondering in the committee "if these guys cant stand being in this conference any longer should'nt we take their own opinion into consideration?"

[laxpert]

https://theathletic.com/5114092/2023/12 ... lie-baker/

Not sure of the ramifications this could have on Men's lacrosse .

[droliver]

"Not sure of the ramifications this could have on Men's lacrosse"

Would seem to be BAD, very bad. Title IX is the poison pill here, particularly for all but the largest schools in the SEC/BIG10. The schools will have to offset the direct compensation they can offer players dollar for dollar with women for title IX compliance. The financial pressure will certainly lead to mass closure of many men's athletic teams as the schools will prioritize competing in MBB/CFB at the highest level and cut expenses throughout other sports.

[OCanada]

Thete will be many more college closures moving forward as well as dropped sports.


https://www.highereddive.com/news/colle ... ny/690293/

[44WeWantMore]

"Not sure of the ramifications this could have on Men's lacrosse"

Would seem to be BAD, very bad. Title IX is the poison pill here, particularly for all but the largest schools in the SEC/BIG10. The schools will have to offset the direct compensation they can offer players dollar for dollar with women for title IX compliance. The financial pressure will certainly lead to mass closure of many men's athletic teams as the schools will prioritize competing in MBB/CFB at the highest level and cut expenses throughout other sports.

Direct compensation from the school to the player certainly would keep a compliance lawyer up at night, but an across-the-board incentive plan might fly. So the Football players get a percentage (say, 10%) of their television rights, and the squash players get the exact same (10%) of their television rights. All that is required would be for the broadcasters to unbundle their negotiations to be sport-by-sport, team-by-team, instead of at the conference level.

Within a team, the lays can differ, but not across the teams.