The Nation's Financial Condition

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youthathletics
Posts: 15810
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by youthathletics »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:11 pm
youthathletics wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:02 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:45 pm
youthathletics wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:31 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:12 pm :lol: I'm not buying YouTube guys.

What I do know is that Costco's stock price has more than doubled in the past 5 years, from $214 to $589.

Revenue has grown from $153B in 2019 to $242B in 2023; gross income from $19.8B to $29.7B.
Do you have any stats that show Revenue growth of of other major Grocer Leaders? We may be arguing for no reason if the others major grocers are also experiencing significant revenue growth. Which would explain that they are capitalizing on the inflation and residuals of cv-19 shutdown.
Kroger is up from $121B to $148B in past 5 years.
Walmart is up from $514B to $611B (worldwide), but has been the big winner in the US in online grocery, particularly pickup.
Albertson's is up from $60.5B to $77.6B

Regional grocers:
Publix up from $38B to $54B
Wegmans up from 85B to $146B ('22, 23 not yet reported)

Some grocers are gaining market share, others, particularly smaller regionals, had a big boost during Covid with waylay higher demand dynamics for at home food, but faltering now.
Thanks for that. So, in your opinion, why such strong growth during an inflationary period....it certainly seems to imply that they also increased their margins to capitalize on inflation. Whereas, places like Home Depot and Lowes are seeing declines. This implies people are picking and choosing where to spend....food vs home improvements or quite possibly food places are screwing us. Bottom, line daily needs and good in the home are really doing damage....and I seriously doubt anyone wants to drop their prices in the food realm to risk lost revenue.
There was a huge increase in demand during Covid for food at home (as opposed to fast food, restaurant, etc); huge boon to grocers. However, this created dramatic shifts in which foods and how they were prepared, processed, packaged, delivered etc, with supply chains badly snarled. Remember all the issues with just getting goods off boats and onto trains or trucks...yes, some price "gouging" (profit taking) during that time as consumers were willing to pay more just to get products...note, this still meant spending less for food than their prior behavior of going out for food. In general, food made at home is 3-5 X less costly relative to eating same food out.

That demand dynamic has shifted back somewhat as Covid fears have eased, but there's also a lot of restaurants that failed that have not yet been replaced.

The overall dynamics are re-adjusting, but it's taking time to re-establish reliable supply chains. And then global warming traumas have been much worse recently...and the war in Ukraine was huge supply issue for most of the world, sending grain prices everywhere higher.

so, complexity.

But, overall, the US food inflation has been less than most of the world and is less now as well.
Thanks, but we are not discussing eating out or restaurants, not sure why you mention that.

Nothing you mentioned explains the massive revenue increases by the Supply Side food industry. I wonder if your "yes, some price "gouging" (profit taking)" is far more prevalent. One would think that if we had few items on shelves we could argue the justified higher prices, but shelves are no longer bare and after the prices did escalate from S&D, they have continued to stay there, even though inventory is rolling and now readily available.

As an aside, I have noticed that beef, which is 'national' for the most part, has not drifted much at all. For the past 7+ years, I buy the entire quarter of beef ribeye, then process it myself which gets me about a dozen steaks and some residuals. I have always waited for sales which was roughly a few times a year, in between strip, tenderloin, porterhouse, etc. That sale price was roughly $8/lb and to this day, it still is. Maybe these stores are keeping those prices the same as the bargaining chip to get you the store, then getcha on most everything else. :lol:

Appreciate the chat, as always.
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy


“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
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MDlaxfan76
Posts: 27083
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:40 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

youthathletics wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:28 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:11 pm
youthathletics wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:02 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:45 pm
youthathletics wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:31 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:12 pm :lol: I'm not buying YouTube guys.

What I do know is that Costco's stock price has more than doubled in the past 5 years, from $214 to $589.

Revenue has grown from $153B in 2019 to $242B in 2023; gross income from $19.8B to $29.7B.
Do you have any stats that show Revenue growth of of other major Grocer Leaders? We may be arguing for no reason if the others major grocers are also experiencing significant revenue growth. Which would explain that they are capitalizing on the inflation and residuals of cv-19 shutdown.
Kroger is up from $121B to $148B in past 5 years.
Walmart is up from $514B to $611B (worldwide), but has been the big winner in the US in online grocery, particularly pickup.
Albertson's is up from $60.5B to $77.6B

Regional grocers:
Publix up from $38B to $54B
Wegmans up from 85B to $146B ('22, 23 not yet reported)

Some grocers are gaining market share, others, particularly smaller regionals, had a big boost during Covid with waylay higher demand dynamics for at home food, but faltering now.
Thanks for that. So, in your opinion, why such strong growth during an inflationary period....it certainly seems to imply that they also increased their margins to capitalize on inflation. Whereas, places like Home Depot and Lowes are seeing declines. This implies people are picking and choosing where to spend....food vs home improvements or quite possibly food places are screwing us. Bottom, line daily needs and good in the home are really doing damage....and I seriously doubt anyone wants to drop their prices in the food realm to risk lost revenue.
There was a huge increase in demand during Covid for food at home (as opposed to fast food, restaurant, etc); huge boon to grocers. However, this created dramatic shifts in which foods and how they were prepared, processed, packaged, delivered etc, with supply chains badly snarled. Remember all the issues with just getting goods off boats and onto trains or trucks...yes, some price "gouging" (profit taking) during that time as consumers were willing to pay more just to get products...note, this still meant spending less for food than their prior behavior of going out for food. In general, food made at home is 3-5 X less costly relative to eating same food out.

That demand dynamic has shifted back somewhat as Covid fears have eased, but there's also a lot of restaurants that failed that have not yet been replaced.

The overall dynamics are re-adjusting, but it's taking time to re-establish reliable supply chains. And then global warming traumas have been much worse recently...and the war in Ukraine was huge supply issue for most of the world, sending grain prices everywhere higher.

so, complexity.

But, overall, the US food inflation has been less than most of the world and is less now as well.
Thanks, but we are not discussing eating out or restaurants, not sure why you mention that.

Nothing you mentioned explains the massive revenue increases by the Supply Side food industry. I wonder if your "yes, some price "gouging" (profit taking)" is far more prevalent. One would think that if we had few items on shelves we could argue the justified higher prices, but shelves are no longer bare and after the prices did escalate from S&D, they have continued to stay there, even though inventory is rolling and now readily available.

As an aside, I have noticed that beef, which is 'national' for the most part, has not drifted much at all. For the past 7+ years, I buy the entire quarter of beef ribeye, then process it myself which gets me about a dozen steaks and some residuals. I have always waited for sales which was roughly a few times a year, in between strip, tenderloin, porterhouse, etc. That sale price was roughly $8/lb and to this day, it still is. Maybe these stores are keeping those prices the same as the bargaining chip to get you the store, then getcha on most everything else. :lol:

Appreciate the chat, as always.
Perhaps you're missing my point that demand shifted to grocery from restaurant.
More meals made at home bought through grocery, less restaurant.

Which meant a change in how foods were being processed, packaged etc. And that created supply shortfalls.

Not sure what you mean by revenue increases in "Supply side food industry". For instance, Tyson has been basically flat these past 4 years, serving both industry segments. Kraft is flat...what sorts of companies do you mean? If you mean the grocers, again, there's a lot of consolidation happening post the big positive boost during the first two years of covid.

Re restaurants versus grocery, just saw this: https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/14/business ... index.html
User avatar
youthathletics
Posts: 15810
Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by youthathletics »

MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:37 pm
youthathletics wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:28 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:11 pm
youthathletics wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:02 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:45 pm
youthathletics wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:31 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:12 pm :lol: I'm not buying YouTube guys.

What I do know is that Costco's stock price has more than doubled in the past 5 years, from $214 to $589.

Revenue has grown from $153B in 2019 to $242B in 2023; gross income from $19.8B to $29.7B.
Do you have any stats that show Revenue growth of of other major Grocer Leaders? We may be arguing for no reason if the others major grocers are also experiencing significant revenue growth. Which would explain that they are capitalizing on the inflation and residuals of cv-19 shutdown.
Kroger is up from $121B to $148B in past 5 years.
Walmart is up from $514B to $611B (worldwide), but has been the big winner in the US in online grocery, particularly pickup.
Albertson's is up from $60.5B to $77.6B

Regional grocers:
Publix up from $38B to $54B
Wegmans up from 85B to $146B ('22, 23 not yet reported)

Some grocers are gaining market share, others, particularly smaller regionals, had a big boost during Covid with waylay higher demand dynamics for at home food, but faltering now.
Thanks for that. So, in your opinion, why such strong growth during an inflationary period....it certainly seems to imply that they also increased their margins to capitalize on inflation. Whereas, places like Home Depot and Lowes are seeing declines. This implies people are picking and choosing where to spend....food vs home improvements or quite possibly food places are screwing us. Bottom, line daily needs and good in the home are really doing damage....and I seriously doubt anyone wants to drop their prices in the food realm to risk lost revenue.
There was a huge increase in demand during Covid for food at home (as opposed to fast food, restaurant, etc); huge boon to grocers. However, this created dramatic shifts in which foods and how they were prepared, processed, packaged, delivered etc, with supply chains badly snarled. Remember all the issues with just getting goods off boats and onto trains or trucks...yes, some price "gouging" (profit taking) during that time as consumers were willing to pay more just to get products...note, this still meant spending less for food than their prior behavior of going out for food. In general, food made at home is 3-5 X less costly relative to eating same food out.

That demand dynamic has shifted back somewhat as Covid fears have eased, but there's also a lot of restaurants that failed that have not yet been replaced.

The overall dynamics are re-adjusting, but it's taking time to re-establish reliable supply chains. And then global warming traumas have been much worse recently...and the war in Ukraine was huge supply issue for most of the world, sending grain prices everywhere higher.

so, complexity.

But, overall, the US food inflation has been less than most of the world and is less now as well.
Thanks, but we are not discussing eating out or restaurants, not sure why you mention that.

Nothing you mentioned explains the massive revenue increases by the Supply Side food industry. I wonder if your "yes, some price "gouging" (profit taking)" is far more prevalent. One would think that if we had few items on shelves we could argue the justified higher prices, but shelves are no longer bare and after the prices did escalate from S&D, they have continued to stay there, even though inventory is rolling and now readily available.

As an aside, I have noticed that beef, which is 'national' for the most part, has not drifted much at all. For the past 7+ years, I buy the entire quarter of beef ribeye, then process it myself which gets me about a dozen steaks and some residuals. I have always waited for sales which was roughly a few times a year, in between strip, tenderloin, porterhouse, etc. That sale price was roughly $8/lb and to this day, it still is. Maybe these stores are keeping those prices the same as the bargaining chip to get you the store, then getcha on most everything else. :lol:

Appreciate the chat, as always.
Perhaps you're missing my point that demand shifted to grocery from restaurant.
More meals made at home bought through grocery, less restaurant.

Which meant a change in how foods were being processed, packaged etc. And that created supply shortfalls.

Not sure what you mean by revenue increases in "Supply side food industry". For instance, Tyson has been basically flat these past 4 years, serving both industry segments. Kraft is flat...what sorts of companies do you mean? If you mean the grocers, again, there's a lot of consolidation happening post the big positive boost during the first two years of covid.

Re restaurants versus grocery, just saw this: https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/14/business ... index.html
Thanks....it's all a damned racket; MFers !
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy


“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
User avatar
MDlaxfan76
Posts: 27083
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:40 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by MDlaxfan76 »

youthathletics wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:50 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:37 pm
youthathletics wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:28 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:11 pm
youthathletics wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 1:02 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:45 pm
youthathletics wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:31 pm
MDlaxfan76 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 12:12 pm :lol: I'm not buying YouTube guys.

What I do know is that Costco's stock price has more than doubled in the past 5 years, from $214 to $589.

Revenue has grown from $153B in 2019 to $242B in 2023; gross income from $19.8B to $29.7B.
Do you have any stats that show Revenue growth of of other major Grocer Leaders? We may be arguing for no reason if the others major grocers are also experiencing significant revenue growth. Which would explain that they are capitalizing on the inflation and residuals of cv-19 shutdown.
Kroger is up from $121B to $148B in past 5 years.
Walmart is up from $514B to $611B (worldwide), but has been the big winner in the US in online grocery, particularly pickup.
Albertson's is up from $60.5B to $77.6B

Regional grocers:
Publix up from $38B to $54B
Wegmans up from 85B to $146B ('22, 23 not yet reported)

Some grocers are gaining market share, others, particularly smaller regionals, had a big boost during Covid with waylay higher demand dynamics for at home food, but faltering now.
Thanks for that. So, in your opinion, why such strong growth during an inflationary period....it certainly seems to imply that they also increased their margins to capitalize on inflation. Whereas, places like Home Depot and Lowes are seeing declines. This implies people are picking and choosing where to spend....food vs home improvements or quite possibly food places are screwing us. Bottom, line daily needs and good in the home are really doing damage....and I seriously doubt anyone wants to drop their prices in the food realm to risk lost revenue.
There was a huge increase in demand during Covid for food at home (as opposed to fast food, restaurant, etc); huge boon to grocers. However, this created dramatic shifts in which foods and how they were prepared, processed, packaged, delivered etc, with supply chains badly snarled. Remember all the issues with just getting goods off boats and onto trains or trucks...yes, some price "gouging" (profit taking) during that time as consumers were willing to pay more just to get products...note, this still meant spending less for food than their prior behavior of going out for food. In general, food made at home is 3-5 X less costly relative to eating same food out.

That demand dynamic has shifted back somewhat as Covid fears have eased, but there's also a lot of restaurants that failed that have not yet been replaced.

The overall dynamics are re-adjusting, but it's taking time to re-establish reliable supply chains. And then global warming traumas have been much worse recently...and the war in Ukraine was huge supply issue for most of the world, sending grain prices everywhere higher.

so, complexity.

But, overall, the US food inflation has been less than most of the world and is less now as well.
Thanks, but we are not discussing eating out or restaurants, not sure why you mention that.

Nothing you mentioned explains the massive revenue increases by the Supply Side food industry. I wonder if your "yes, some price "gouging" (profit taking)" is far more prevalent. One would think that if we had few items on shelves we could argue the justified higher prices, but shelves are no longer bare and after the prices did escalate from S&D, they have continued to stay there, even though inventory is rolling and now readily available.

As an aside, I have noticed that beef, which is 'national' for the most part, has not drifted much at all. For the past 7+ years, I buy the entire quarter of beef ribeye, then process it myself which gets me about a dozen steaks and some residuals. I have always waited for sales which was roughly a few times a year, in between strip, tenderloin, porterhouse, etc. That sale price was roughly $8/lb and to this day, it still is. Maybe these stores are keeping those prices the same as the bargaining chip to get you the store, then getcha on most everything else. :lol:

Appreciate the chat, as always.
Perhaps you're missing my point that demand shifted to grocery from restaurant.
More meals made at home bought through grocery, less restaurant.

Which meant a change in how foods were being processed, packaged etc. And that created supply shortfalls.

Not sure what you mean by revenue increases in "Supply side food industry". For instance, Tyson has been basically flat these past 4 years, serving both industry segments. Kraft is flat...what sorts of companies do you mean? If you mean the grocers, again, there's a lot of consolidation happening post the big positive boost during the first two years of covid.

Re restaurants versus grocery, just saw this: https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/14/business ... index.html
Thanks....it's all a damned racket; MFers !
:D ;)
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NattyBohChamps04
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by NattyBohChamps04 »

And as far as slowing home improvement revenue, slowing of home sales is a big factor. Also, it's a personal anecdote, but I did about 6 years worth of renovations/projects in the first 2.5 years of COVID. Much fewer projects going on this past year.
User avatar
youthathletics
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Joined: Mon Jul 30, 2018 7:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by youthathletics »

NattyBohChamps04 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 3:43 pm And as far as slowing home improvement revenue, slowing of home sales is a big factor. Also, it's a personal anecdote, but I did about 6 years worth of renovations/projects in the first 2.5 years of COVID. Much fewer projects going on this past year.
True. I know many residential contractors who are now running out of all their backlog they carried, but still busy providing estimates with interested homeowners....they just don't seem to want to burn that discretionary cash, yet.
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy


“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
OCanada
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Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:36 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by OCanada »

Discretionary cash in maybe individual cases

https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/n ... 3/20231107
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NattyBohChamps04
Posts: 2796
Joined: Tue May 04, 2021 11:40 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by NattyBohChamps04 »

youthathletics wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 5:32 pm
NattyBohChamps04 wrote: Tue Nov 14, 2023 3:43 pm And as far as slowing home improvement revenue, slowing of home sales is a big factor. Also, it's a personal anecdote, but I did about 6 years worth of renovations/projects in the first 2.5 years of COVID. Much fewer projects going on this past year.
True. I know many residential contractors who are now running out of all their backlog they carried, but still busy providing estimates with interested homeowners....they just don't seem to want to burn that discretionary cash, yet.
Exactly. Why should I burn that $50k cash on a bathroom remodel for a modest return or pay a 7+% interest rate on construction when I can get 5+% return on a basic savings account and make more by doing nothing?
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23812
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

https://revcycleintelligence.com/news/c ... newsletter

Bet the amount of $250-$500 charges will soon become $501-$550 with “inflation”

Consumer Credit Scores Improve After Medical Debt is Wiped from Reports

The average consumer credit score for those with medical debt in collections went from 585 to 615 points after credit bureaus removed debt under $500.

RevCycleIntelligenceNovember 06, 2023
medical debt, consumer credit scores, credit reports
Source: Getty Images

- After major credit bureaus stopped reporting medical debt collections less than a year old and less than $500, consumers saw improvements in their credit scores, according to data from the Urban Institute.

Medical debt can lead to financial challenges, especially when unpaid debt is sent to collections and winds up on consumer credit reports.

Medical debt does not accurately predict a person’s credit risk, as unpaid bills could reflect issues with understanding healthcare billing and reimbursement processes. However, having medical debt in collections could impact someone’s ability to get insurance, find a job, or rent a home.

Last year, three major credit bureaus—Equifax, Experian, and Transunion—announced that starting July 1, 2022, they would increase the time before past-due medical debt collection appears on a consumer credit report from six months to one year.

In August 2022, the Vantage score consumer credit model, one of the country’s most used models, stopped using medical debt in collections to calculate credit scores. Furthermore, in April 2023, the three major credit bureaus removed medical collections under $500 from consumer credit reports.

According to the Urban Institute’s credit bureau data, these changes have eliminated medical debt in collections from most consumers’ credit reports.

In August 2022, 11.6 percent of consumers had medical debt in collections on their credit reports. By August 2023, the share declined to 5.0 percent. Urban Institute researchers estimated that more than 15 million consumers have benefitted from the debt erasure in the past year.

Additionally, consumers’ credit scores have increased since the changes were implemented. Between August 2022 and August 2023, the average credit score among consumers with medical debt collections in August 2022 rose from 585 to 615 points. This shifted many consumers from a subprime level (below 600) to near prime level (between 601 and 660).

At the same time, the average credit score for consumers without medical debt on their records remained largely the same, going from 712 to 711 between August 2022 and August 2023.

These findings indicate that future medical debt reporting restrictions could continue benefiting consumers. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) recently proposed a rulemaking process that aims to remove all remaining medical bills from consumer credit reports.

Additionally, two states have taken legislative action to address the issue. Colorado’s law banning medical debt from appearing on credit reports went into effect in August 2023, while New York’s law passed the state legislature in June 2023 and is currently being reviewed by the governor.

Although these policies may help consumers have better credit scores, they do not address the numerous other challenges accompanying medical debt, including the fact that consumers will still owe the debt to their healthcare providers.

Most hospitals, providers, and collection agencies can still sue patients for not paying medical bills. In addition, removing medical debt from credit reports may cause these entities to increase their efforts to receive upfront payments before delivering care, the report mentioned.

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Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23812
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Over structured sales of assets by the govt are going to become more common with worse outcomes going forward. Blackstone own the pool sale bidding for the non structured, CRE loan sale pool but I don’t have the numbers (yet). Interestingly this cowboy banker owner billionaire in Texas named Andy Beal was told he wasn’t allowed to bid and it wasn’t because of any existing interests in the pools they just hate the guy and found a reason to say “pound sand”.

Bidders Shun Rent-Stabilized Pools in $33B Signature Bank Loan Sale
Signature’s rent-stabilized loans draw anemic interest
(The Real Deal)
The bidding process for Signature Bank’s $33 billion commercial real estate loans recently concluded, with a notable lack of interest in a significant portion of the portfolio: $15 billion in loans tied to New York’s rent-stabilized housing.
Breakdown of loan pools: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), managing the sale, divided the bank's debt into 14 pools. Investors were offered a minority stake, while the FDIC retained majority ownership to protect affordable housing. The three pools encompassed commercial real estate debt, including office, retail, hotels, and market-rate apartments. Nine pools contained rent-stabilized loans, drawing limited attention from bidders.
High interest in commercial debt: The commercial real estate debt attracted considerable interest from institutional investors like Blackstone, KKR, TPG, and Goldman Sachs. However, the rent-stabilized pools were largely ignored. Experts like Thomas Galli, a partner at Duane Morris, expressed surprise at the low interest in these pools, attributing it to the declining value of rent-stabilized buildings and the complex nature of the loans.
Bidding challenges: One key factor deterring potential bidders was a provision that barred firms with any connection to borrowers or assets in the debt pools from bidding. This rule, aimed at preventing manipulation of the bidding process, inadvertently excluded many otherwise qualified entities. The FDIC’s dual objectives of maximizing value and protecting low-income tenants further complicated the bidding process.
➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Balancing competing motivations: The FDIC faces the challenge of balancing its aim to secure the best net present value with its statutory obligation to protect lower-income tenants in the sale. While the lack of interest in the rent-stabilized pools may result in lower bids, the FDIC must also consider the long-term effects of holding onto these loans, such as further deterioration of the properties and decreased valuations.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23812
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

In case anyone is interested in the history of bank regulation in liquidity and bonds (and mark to market acctg)

AOCI = accumulated other comprehensive income; “non operating” gains and losses to the banks balance sheet which banks can opt out of counting when it tally’s its regulatory capital level/amount. For too many years too many depository Ibankers (incl many former colleagues) told bank execs “it’s not a loss if you are paid off at maturity” but this is like math dyslexia and my children get this is wrong no matter how much confidence it’s stated with because banks buy and sell money and when they cost of money is higher than what you sold it for then you become Silicon Valley Bank. The advisors the the entire industry were telling folks the wrong thing for a decade (at least)

https://bankregblog.substack.com/p/the- ... ng-how-the

The AOCI Opt-Out: Revisiting How the U.S. Capital Rules Arrived Here

But first, a brief digression on a liquidity stress test SVB was required to conduct

Bank Reg Blog
On Friday Dan Davies in a post at FT Alphaville called the SVB situation “a very American mess.” The argument centers on the fact that although the post-financial crisis Basel III rules included new standardized liquidity rules called the liquidity coverage ratio and the net stable funding ratio, “the majority of US banks are not required to follow the NSFR or LCR standards at all.”

As Davies notes, this is partly a consequence of regulatory changes adopted in 2019 following the 2018 enactment of the EGRRCPA. This is a subject worthy of further discussion, but in today’s post I want to focus on two other elements of the post-global financial crisis regime as applied, or not, in the United States.

Liquidity Stress Testing and Liquidity Buffer

SVB was not subject to LCR or NSFR requirements because it was below the relevant thresholds set by U.S. regulators for application of those requirements.

SVB did, however, recently become subject to liquidity stress testing and liquidity buffer requirements under Regulation YY. These requirements apply to all bank holding companies with total assets, based on a four-quarter average, over $100 billion. SVB crossed that average threshold in 2021, and therefore was required to start conducting Reg YY liquidity stress tests in 2022.

Specifically, on a quarterly basis SVB was required to conduct a liquidity stress test that took into consideration a number of factors:

General. A bank holding company subject to this subpart must conduct stress tests to assess the potential impact of the liquidity stress scenarios set forth [below] on its cash flows, liquidity position, profitability, and solvency, taking into account its current liquidity condition, risks, exposures, strategies, and activities.

The bank holding company must take into consideration its balance sheet exposures, off-balance sheet exposures, size, risk profile, complexity, business lines, organizational structure, and other characteristics of the bank holding company that affect its liquidity risk profile in conducting its stress test.

In conducting a liquidity stress test using the scenarios [involving adverse market conditions], the bank holding company must address the potential direct adverse impact of associated market disruptions on the bank holding company and incorporate the potential actions of other market participants experiencing liquidity stresses under the market disruptions that would adversely affect the bank holding company. […]

The test was required to include three different stress scenarios applied over four different planning horizons.

Stress scenarios. Each liquidity stress test conducted under […] this section must include, at a minimum:

A scenario reflecting adverse market conditions;

A scenario reflecting an idiosyncratic stress event for the bank holding company; and

A scenario reflecting combined market and idiosyncratic stresses.

The bank holding company must incorporate additional liquidity stress scenarios into its liquidity stress test, as appropriate, based on its financial condition, size, complexity, risk profile, scope of operations, or activities. The Board may require the bank holding company to vary the underlying assumptions and stress scenarios.

Planning horizon. Each stress test conducted under […] this section must include an overnight planning horizon, a 30-day planning horizon, a 90-day planning horizon, a one-year planning horizon, and any other planning horizons that are relevant to the bank holding company's liquidity risk profile. For purposes of this section, a “planning horizon” is the period over which the relevant stressed projections extend.

The results of these stress tests were then used, among other things, to calculate a required liquidity buffer based on the 30-day planning horizon.

Liquidity buffer requirement. A bank holding company subject to this subpart must maintain a liquidity buffer that is sufficient to meet the projected net stressed cash-flow need over the 30-day planning horizon of a liquidity stress test conducted in accordance with [each scenario set out above].

Net stressed cash-flow need. The net stressed cash-flow need for a bank holding company is the difference between the amount of its cash-flow need and the amount of its cash flow sources over the 30-day planning horizon.

Asset requirements. The liquidity buffer must consist of highly liquid assets that are unencumbered, as defined in [the regulation].

As I hope is clear, I am not asserting that these requirements eliminate the need for LCR or NSFR requirements.

I do think it is interesting context, though, and as policymakers sift through the aftermath of these events I hope we learn more about what SVB's liquidity stress tests looked like in the quarters leading up to last week’s events, whether they indicated any major signs of risk and, if so, how management and regulators responded.

AOCI Opt-Out

The Davies piece mentioned in the introduction to this post spurred a discussion on Twitter about other aspects of the U.S. capital rules that do not apply to all firms.

For example, some commentators were surprised to learn that U.S. banking organizations the size of SVB had been permitted to make a one-time election to permanently opt out of recognizing the effects of Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (AOCI) in regulatory capital.

As with the LCR/NSFR tailoring discussed above, this is absolutely a worthwhile area of discussion. But in a few conversations over the past 72 hours I have seen some people conflate 2018/2019 changes to the AOCI opt out with changes that happened well before then, so I thought it would be helpful to revisit the history.

The retracing of developments below is not meant to be an indictment of anyone involved, and I hope the tone of this post does not come across as me sneering at people from a decade ago with the benefit of hindsight. I certainly cannot claim to have been jumping up and down warning about the potential consequences of the AOCI opt-out in 2013.

Anyways, to the history.

2012 U.S. Implementation Proposal

In 2012 the U.S. banking regulators released their proposals to implement the Basel III standards in the United States. Consistent with the Basel standard, the proposed rules would have required banking organizations to include most AOCI components in CET 1 capital.

As proposed, unrealized gains and losses on all AFS securities would flow through to common equity tier 1 capital. This would include those unrealized gains and losses related to debt securities whose valuations primarily change as a result of fluctuations in a benchmark interest rate, as opposed to changes in credit risk (for example, U.S. Treasuries and U.S. government agency debt obligations).

The agencies believe this proposed treatment would better reflect an institution’s actual risk. In particular, while unrealized gains and losses on AFS securities might be temporary in nature and might reverse over a longer time horizon, (especially when they are primarily attributable to changes in a benchmark interest rate), unrealized losses could materially affect a banking organization’s capital position at a particular point in time and associated risks should be reflected in its capital ratios. In addition, the proposed treatment would be consistent with the common market practice of evaluating a firm’s capital strength by measuring its tangible common equity.

The 2013 Final Rule

The 2012 proposal kicked off a frenzy of comments, meetings and other feedback on the proposed rule. After digesting all this input, the banking regulators adopted final rules in 2013.

The supplementary information accompanying the final rule acknowledged that the regulatory capital treatment of AOCI had been a focus of commenters.

The agencies and the FDIC received a significant number of comments on the proposal to require banking organizations to recognize AOCI in common equity tier 1 capital. Generally, the commenters asserted that the proposal would introduce significant volatility in banking organizations’ capital ratios due in large part to fluctuations in benchmark interest rates, and would result in many banking organizations moving AFS securities into a held-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio or holding additional regulatory capital solely to mitigate the volatility resulting from temporary unrealized gains and losses in the AFS securities portfolio.

The commenters also asserted that the proposed rules would likely impair lending and negatively affect banking organizations’ ability to manage liquidity and interest rate risk and to maintain compliance with legal lending limits.

Further, the supplementary information later stated that the above-referenced opposition came from all corners:

Banking organizations of all sizes, banking and other industry groups, public officials (including members of the U.S. Congress), and other individuals strongly opposed the proposal to include most AOCI components in common equity tier 1 capital.

For instance, then-Senator Claire McCaskill wrote a letter on behalf of Missouri community banks taking issue with, among other things, “the problematic treatment of securities held in investment portfolios prescribed by the rules.”

It was not only Republicans and conservative Democrats who worried about this. For example, Senator Jeff Merkley wrote in to voice concern about what the rule could mean for Oregon community banks. Among other things, Senator Merkley said he had heard complaints from local banks about “the requirement that unrealized gains and losses from the available-for-sale portfolio flow through to capital.”

Here are a few more quotes from the adopting release in which the agencies describe other comments they received about AOCI. Some of these claims have held up better than others.

For unrealized gains and losses on AFS debt securities that typically result from changes in benchmark interest rates rather than changes in credit risk, most commenters expressed concerns that the value of such securities on any particular day might not be a good indicator of the value of those securities for a banking organization, given that the banking organization could hold them until they mature and realize the amount due in full. Most commenters argued that the inclusion of unrealized gains and losses on AFS debt securities in regulatory capital could result in volatile capital levels and adversely affect other measures tied to regulatory capital, such as legal lending limits, especially if and when interest rates rise from their current historically-low levels.

Several commenters used sample AFS securities portfolio data to illustrate how an upward shift in interest rates could have a substantial impact on a banking organization’s capital levels (depending on the composition of its AFS portfolio and its defined benefit postretirement obligations). According to these commenters, the potential negative impact on capital levels that could follow a substantial increase in interest rates would place significant strains on banking organizations.

Many community banking organization commenters observed that hedging or raising additional capital may be especially difficult for banking organizations with limited access to capital markets, while shifting more debt securities into the HTM portfolio would impair active management of interest rate risk positions and negatively impact a banking organization’s liquidity position. These commenters also expressed concern that this could be especially problematic given the increased attention to liquidity by banking regulators and industry analysts.

In light of these and other comments received, the agencies decided that only advanced approaches banking organizations should be required to follow the Basel III approach to AOCI. Other banking organizations would have the one-time right to opt-out.

At the time, an advanced approaches banking organization was defined as a firm with either (i) $250 billion or more in total assets or (ii) $10 billion in on-balance sheet foreign exposures. This meant that, although some of the most vocal criticism of the AOCI treatment in the proposal came from community bankers or was offered on their behalf, the AOCI opt-out wound up being available to banks larger than your typical community bank.

For U.S. firms, the upshot of all this was that only the U.S. G-SIBs and a couple of large regionals were initially subject to a requirement to include the effects of AOCI on regulatory capital. A few more later grew into it.

2013 Open Board Meeting

When it was ready to adopt the final rules, the Federal Reserve Board in July 2013 held an open meeting to discuss them. At the meeting, Governor Jeremy Stein remarked that he understood the general logic behind narrowing to a much smaller group of firms the requirement to include AOCI in regulatory capital. But Governor Stein had a question about interest rate risk.

The question I have is, however, if we leave this AOCI filter in place, we're left in a situation where there's really no regulatory capital device in place that attempts to capture interest rate risk. And as we’ve seen now the last few weeks are sort of a good reminder of the fact that interest rates can move around sometimes pretty sharply. So the question I have is: What other mechanisms aside from capital regulation, presumably either on the supervisory or on the stress testing side, do we have or can we use to reassure ourselves that banks are not getting themselves overly exposed to interest rate risk?

A senior staff member in the Division of Supervision and Regulation offered to take the question. The staff member first explained that the banking agencies had recently put out various advisories about interest rate risk and how banks should be thinking about operating in a low-interest rate environment while at the same time recognizing that rates were likely to rise in the future. The staff member then continued:

So, from the overall standpoint what we are advising firms and have instructed our supervisory staff to do is to continue to be vigilant in their pursuit of interest rate risk management, but not come up with these quantitative adjustments as much. We are incorporating in our queue--we have incorporated in our Q&As, excuse me, some basic assumptions around the way of stress testing or scenario analysis. The typical plus or minus 300 basis point shock in rates, what would that do to your portfolio? So I believe we have the basis for which we can move forward on this. And I think our firms are integrating that into their risk management practices. It just remains as a task for us as supervisors to be vigilant as rates increase or change in this environment, to follow up with firms as they implement appropriate changes to their strategies so we don't invariably fall behind.

At the conclusion of the meeting, the rules were supported by all members of the Board of Governors.

2019 Changes

Finally we get to 2019. As part of the post-EGRRCPA tailoring changes, the threshold at which firms can no longer exercise an AOCI opt-out was revised upwards, such that now only firms with either (i) $700 billion or more in total assets or (ii) $75 billion of cross-jurisdictional activity are prohibited from opting out of recognizing the effects of AOCI on regulatory capital.

This was a big deal for a handful of regionals who either had not been allowed to opt out under the 2013 version of the rules or had grown in size such that their previous opt out was no longer valid. But it did not make a difference to 99% of U.S. banking organizations, which had already been given, and exercised, the right to opt out.

****

None of the above is meant to argue that the U.S. deviation from the Basel approach in terms of AOCI and regulatory capital was the right way to go. The point here is only that this aspect of the U.S. regulatory approach is not something that can be laid at the door of the EGRRCPA or the regulatory tailoring changes adopted thereafter. Instead, thanks to decisions made a decade ago, there was never a final version of the U.S. capital rules that would have required a bank of SVB's size to recognize AOCI in regulatory capital.

Thanks for reading! Thoughts, challenges, criticisms are always welcome at [email protected]

1
I use the word “following” here only in terms of chronology and not necessarily as a synonym for “because of.” Not every regulatory change made as part of the 2019 tailoring package was strictly required by the EGRRCPA.

2
The rules say that compliance is required “no later than the first day of the fifth quarter following the date on which [the company’s] average total consolidated assets equal or exceed $100 billion.”

3
This is a quarterly requirement for firms in Category IV like SVB, but is a monthly requirement for firms in Categories I, II or III.

4
Internal section numbering has been omitted and some of the spacing has been adjusted.

5
A side debate, I suppose, is how much risk it is reasonable to hope for these liquidity stress tests to catch. $42 billion in attempted withdrawals in a single day?

6
The rules were of course supported by the other federal banking regulators as well. For example, see this 2013 statement from then- (and now again) FDIC Chair Gruenberg:

During the comment period on these proposals, we received a large number of comments, particularly from community banks, expressing concerns with some of the provisions of the NPRs. The interim final rule makes significant changes to aspects of the NPRs to address a number of these community bank comments. […] It allows for an opt-out from the regulatory capital recognition of accumulated other comprehensive income, or AOCI, except for large banking organizations that are subject to the advanced approaches requirements. […] Comments received on all these matters were extremely helpful to the agencies in reaching decisions on the proposals.

7
As of the end of the most recent quarter, SVB had $212 billion in total assets, down slightly from their all-time high of around $220 billion at the end of March 2022. SVB was actually closer than you might guess to the $75 billion cross-jurisdictional activity threshold, but they were short of that one too.

Update as of 8:10 am PST Sunday March 12: The claim in the text that SVB would not have been subject to the advanced approaches rules based on size alone is correct. But upon reflection, one point this post elided is that it is possible under the old rules that SVB would eventually have crossed the $10 billion on-balance sheet foreign exposure threshold, and thus become subject to the advanced approaches rules that way. SVB’s foreign exposures had been ticking up in the years prior to the tailoring rules — their 10-K states they had $6 billion in such exposures at year-end 2017, and $7.5 billion at year-end 2018.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
User avatar
youthathletics
Posts: 15810
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by youthathletics »

The New York City commercial real estate meltdown begins...https://x.com/TripleNetInvest/status/17 ... 95645?s=20

Some of the comments from the owner about a possible tenant are interesting...

Bob Knakal | NYC Investment Sales
@BobKnakal 17h
The old owner told me he was meeting a potential tenant for 4 floors in the building and in front was a guy with a needle sticking out of his arm and another one taking a dump right in front of the door. The tenant saw this and wouldn’t even go in and look at the space. Our knucklehead policy makers are killing the city. They need to wake up and wake up fast!! Terrible policies lead to terrible conditions.
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy


“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23812
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

youthathletics wrote: Sun Nov 19, 2023 10:12 am The New York City commercial real estate meltdown begins...https://x.com/TripleNetInvest/status/17 ... 95645?s=20

Some of the comments from the owner about a possible tenant are interesting...

Bob Knakal | NYC Investment Sales
@BobKnakal 17h
The old owner told me he was meeting a potential tenant for 4 floors in the building and in front was a guy with a needle sticking out of his arm and another one taking a dump right in front of the door. The tenant saw this and wouldn’t even go in and look at the space. Our knucklehead policy makers are killing the city. They need to wake up and wake up fast!! Terrible policies lead to terrible conditions.
If you only knew Bon Knakal…he’s done a good job spinning up a narrative of his firing from cushman but there’s more to the story.

And this is relevant when you are taking a third person story from another person and using it as evidence of anything. It’s important to have an idea of the messengers agenda.

(Built a nice little brokerage business called Massey Knakal in the tri state area on small balance deals but total intermediary zero skin in the game risk transference mentality)
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23812
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

One last one this am-presume 1-4 out of the 25-30 folks around here read and get something out of this stuff. Hopefully folks will realize their enemies from Wall Street from the late 80s (Milken, Wasserstein etc) to early 2000s (Blodgett, Quattrone, Meriwether) and event he Bernie Madoffs stopped being wall streeters once the financial crisis commenced. They’re in northern cali now-all the superficial, IBGYBG, risk transference people migrated into tech. But many keep fighting the wrong targets.

https://workweek.com/2023/11/17/one-las ... dium=email

All Right, Let’s Do This One Last Time.

My name is Alex Johnson.

I was bitten by a radioactive charge card.

And for the past four years, I have been the one and only fintech newsletter writer obsessed with credit builder products.

I’m pretty sure you know the rest.


What’s the Right Price for Credit Building?

I wasn’t planning to write about credit builder products this week … or any week in the foreseeable future. I was planning to take a break from this topic, hoping, perhaps, that such a pause might cause my long curse to finally end.

But no. I just can’t quit.

A former colleague of mine shared this news with me earlier this week:

Regions Bank and Self Financial, Inc. on Tuesday announced a collaboration designed to help Regions’ Consumer Banking customers further build their credit report files and, over time, improve their financial health.

Specifically, Regions will introduce its Consumer Banking customers to the option of leveraging Self’s credit-building service to have their rent, cell phone and utility payments reported to the three major credit bureaus – which helps create a more complete picture of consumers’ financial habits. This, in turn, gives people an opportunity to further establish their credit without having to take on new debt, such as credit cards or loans.

I’m probably more sensitive to the details of how these services work than any person on Earth, but this struck me as fairly inoffensive. Unlike most credit builder cards and loans, services that furnish rent and utility payment data strike the right balance of helping customers (get credit for the good things you’re already doing!) and ensuring that the credit bureaus’ data remains useful to lenders (utility and rent payment data have proven to be predictive of credit default, though older versions of FICO do not take rent data into consideration).

The only thing I’m not wild about is the cost – $6.95 per month. That feels a bit steep for credit building, although I recognize that Self has costs that it needs to cover while making a profit. Still, I would have hoped that Regions would have eaten the cost itself, given that this service will (theoretically) lead to more engaged and creditworthy customers whom Regions can cross-sell and up-sell to.

$7 a month is too much to ask consumers to pay for the simple privilege of improving their credit scores!

Boy, was I naive.

Changing Behavior is Hard

TomoCredit was founded in 2019 with the intent to help international students establish and build their credit histories. For TomoCredit co-founder and CEO Kristy Kim, this was a very personal mission, as she explained to me in a recent interview:

I started the company to solve my own pain point. I am originally from South Korea, and in South Korea, everyone starts in good standing, and your credit score only goes down if you make a mistake. That’s the opposite of how it works in the U.S., where you start from the bottom and have to work your way up.

It’s really hard to ask consumers to change their behavior. What’s easy is to let them continue with their behavior but, in the background, make it easy, almost automatic, for customers to achieve their goals without really thinking about it. I wanted to do that for credit building.

The initial solution that Kim came up with to do that was the TomoCard, a charge card that consumers qualify for based on their cash flow rather than their credit scores. The card, which offers a limit as high as $30,000, doesn’t allow consumers to revolve a balance. Instead, as a charge card, customers pay off the balance in full every 7 days, after which TomoCredit reports the on-time payments to the credit bureaus.

According to TomoCredit, the card has generated significant traction in the market. In September of 2021, Kim told TechCrunch that interest in the card had been much broader than expected:

TomoCredit has already pre-approved more than 300,000 customers and expects to issue a total of 500,000 cards by year’s end, according to Kim.

“We’ve grown 10x this year from the beginning of 2021,” Kim said. “Still, this round came together earlier than expected.”

Something that has been surprising to Kim is the interest from a variety of types of consumers.

“In the beginning, we thought international students and immigrants would be most interested in our product,” she told TechCrunch. “But after launching, we’ve realized that so many people can benefit — from gig economy workers to YouTubers to any young person who hasn’t had a chance to build credit yet. The market is way bigger than we even realized.”

This traction was enough to convince investors to plunk down a $10 million Series A in 2021 and a $22 million Series B (provided by Morgan Stanley and Mastercard, among others), along with $100 million in debt financing in 2022.

At the time, TomoCredit was focused on adding additional credit products for its credit-building customers to graduate into, including a premium ‘black card’ for users that demonstrated sufficiently good performance with the standard charge card and, eventually, auto loans and mortgages.

On one hand, this focus on expanding deeper into lending makes perfect sense. If you really are helping your users meaningfully improve their creditworthiness, then you should be eager to loan them more money. In 2022, TomoCredit was bullish on the idea that it had tapped into an underserved segment of high-performing credit customers, telling TechCrunch:

Kim maintains that the company’s default rate — at 0.11% — doesn’t reflect that risk. (For context, American Express reports a 2.5% default rate.)

“Our customers spend thousands per month, way more than any other fintech customers,” she said. “We learned this by talking to other neobanks.”

“Our customers are not in financial trouble…Once you identify them, and give them a card, they spend a lot and don’t default. Our performance has been great and that gave us and our investors the confidence to scale.”

Sharp observers might note here that comparing the default rate of a charge card with a 7-day repayment period to the traditional credit cards offered by American Express doesn’t make a lot of sense. is easily disprovable.

If that were true, Chime would be doing a massive amount of unsecured lending to its credit builder card users right now.
But even if we set that aside, the idea that credit builder products designed to never let their users default are a good on-ramp for riskier credit products

The difficult truth is that such credit builder products aren’t reporting useful signals to the credit bureaus, and savvy lenders are already screening out these credit builder tradelines or treating them as negative signals in their underwriting models.

This likely explains, at least in part, why TomoCredit has not yet launched a premium card or expanded into auto or mortgage lending, although Kim did confirm in my conversation with her that those offerings are still on the roadmap.

In the meantime, TomoCredit is doubling down on credit building.

A Better Version of Lexington Law

TomoCredit’s newest product is called TomoBoost.


The vision for the product, as Kim described it to me, is to leverage the work that TomoCredit has done to build out its cashflow underwriting capabilities (which were necessary for the TomoCard), combined with generative AI tools, to create an automated credit building and credit repair service that can analyze a customer’s credit report and bank account data, provide tailored advice for improving their credit score and overall financial health, and furnish data to the credit bureaus to expedite those improvements.

When I asked her which (if any) credit builder products in the market she sees as competitors to TomoBoost, she responded with a very unexpected answer:

“Internally, we describe our product as a better version of Lexington Law.”

That’s interesting!

Lexington Law, for those of you who aren’t familiar, is one of the largest providers of credit repair services in the U.S. The company’s credit repair product – which is available at a few different tiers, ranging from $99.95 per month to $139.95 per month – includes various services such as credit bureau challenges and disputes, creditor interventions, credit report analysis and recommendations, and credit monitoring.

Credit repair services are, generally speaking, highly manual, inconvenient, shockingly expensive, and often the subject of regulatory crackdowns (the CFPB has had numerous run-ins with Lexington Law over the years).

It’s easy to understand why a fintech company like TomoCredit would see this as a space ripe for disruption.

What’s less easy to understand is exactly how TomoBoost works today.

While acknowledging that TomoBoost is a new product that is still in the process of being fully built out and that it’s part of a larger suite of products (including the TomoCard) and other products and features that are coming in the next few months, I have to say – TomoBoost, as it appears to work today, is a strange and troubling product.

When you become a TomoBoost member, TomoCredit will report a credit line and credit history to the bureaus that is dependent on your membership tier. There are three tiers – basic, premium, and VIP.

A basic membership costs $9.99 per month and comes with a $500 “reported line,” which users can increase up to $1,000 by linking their utilities and bills (water, electricity, Netflix, gym memberships, etc.) to their Boost account. The basic membership also includes 2 months of “instant history” and 2 months of “bills history.” The premium membership ups the cost to $49.99 per month and gives users a $5,000 reported line, which can be increased up to $20,000 by linking utilities, along with 12 months of instant history, 12 months of bills history, and “expedited credit reporting.” The VIP membership tier costs $99.99 per month and gives users a $10,000 reported line, which can be increased up to $30,000 by linking utilities, along with 24 months of instant history, 24 months of bills history, expedited credit reporting, credit monitoring, credit coaching, and VIP support.

Setting aside the eye-watering costs, which are lower than Lexington Law but are still, you know, really high, there are a couple of things that stand out as confounding.

First, the credit line that comes with the membership ($500 for basic, $5,000 for premium, and $10,000 for VIP) doesn’t seem to actually be a credit line that customers can draw on to pay for things. As far as I can tell, it is just a loan that exists on paper for the purpose of being reportable to the bureaus. Hence the term “reported line” that TomoCredit uses on its website.

Linking utilities and other recurring bills to the line in order to increase it is also quite unusual. Ordinarily, these payments get reported to the bureaus individually rather than being aggregated into a single tradeline. Also, it’s unclear if TomoCredit is checking to see if these recurring bills are already being reported separately, which raises the risk of them being double-counted.

Second, the “instant history” feature is exactly what it sounds like. Say, for example, you sign up for the VIP membership tier; TomoCredit will immediately report a full 24 months of “repayment history” associated with your credit line.


According to FICO, the three most important factors driving a person’s credit score are their payment history (35%), their ratio of credit utilized to credit available (30%), and their length of credit history (15%).

The TomoBoost service is perfectly designed to maximize its positive impact on customers’ credit scores across these three factors. The service only reports positive repayment data because there are no actual payments. Customers’ utilization ratios are instantly improved because they are given a large credit line that can never be used. And the length of credit history is also improved because the service retroactively adds months or years of repayment history as soon as the credit line is created.

The trouble is that none of the data being reported to the bureaus by TomoBoost is real (with the exception of the aggregated utility bills, which are likely to be a small part of the total). It doesn’t reflect an improvement in consumers’ behavior in managing their credit obligations over a long period of time. It doesn’t reflect behavior at all. It’s an illusion.

TomoCredit Customers Aren’t Happy

The other bit of trouble for TomoCredit is that its customers don’t appear to be very happy with it right now.

Across Reddit, TikTok, YouTube, and reviews at the Better Business Bureau, there are numerous consumers claiming that TomoCredit has been unexpectedly closing their TomoCard accounts without warning and aggressively pushing them to use TomoBoost instead.

In our interview, Kim claimed that a small number of card accounts have been closed recently due to risk management concerns and that others are in the process of being transitioned to a new card product that will be coming out towards the end of the year.

This screenshot of a TomoCredit customer support interaction, shared on Reddit, would seem to confirm that the current card product has been “paused”:


The transition process has apparently been quite rocky for many TomoCard users, who have been trying to contact TomoCredit’s customer service representatives without much luck. The situation is especially concerning for cardholders with unclaimed rewards or transaction refunds trapped in their now-defunct TomoCard accounts. As one Reddit user explains:

They have recently closed all of their cards without warning and have completely abandoned any support/customer service. I’ve been hearing other horror stories worse than mine, but personally, they have over a thousand dollars stuck in my account that I will never have access to because I had a few Amazon returns fund the account after the card closed. They will not get back to me; they have not and will not mail me a check for the balance.

Among customers who have signed up for TomoBoost, there appears to be significant confusion about whether or not the service is actually delivering what it promised. Some customers report no data being furnished to the bureaus, despite paying for TomoBoost for multiple months. Others report seeing a new tradeline showing up in their credit reports one month but then having it disappear the next month.

Given the mechanics of how TomoBoost seems to work and the lack of detailed information about the service on TomoCredit’s website (which users have also complained about), this confusion isn’t surprising.

And for TomoBoost users who are looking to cancel their memberships, there also appear to be some serious challenges.

A large percentage of the recent reviews on TomoCredit’s Better Business Bureau listing, where the company has an average rating of 1.18 stars out of 5 (based on 168 reviews), focus on TomoCredit making it essentially impossible for customers to cancel their TomoBoost subscriptions. Here’s one such complaint:

I have emailed multiple times requesting my subscription be canceled. I never received a reply, even acknowledging my request. It’s always a generic auto-reply and then nothing else ever. They’re basically stealing my money at this point.

Good Intentions Aren’t Enough

When my aunt was a little kid, she visited my great-grandfather’s ranch outside Bozeman, MT. While the grownups were inside talking, she went to the sheep barn to visit the ewes and baby lambs.

During her visit, she noticed that some ewes had no lambs while others had multiple lambs. This struck her tiny child brain as deeply unfair, so she decided to fix it. She rearranged all of the lambs so that each ewe had one.

Her grandfather quickly discovered what she had done when the ewes and lamps started raising holy hell, bleating louder and more panicked than he had ever heard them do before (he probably thought the barn had caught fire or something).

Of course, the problem was that there was no way to tell which lambs belonged with which ewes, so the only thing he could do was take the sheep out to the field and let them all loose so they could slowly sort themselves back out again.

This seems like an apt metaphor for fintech credit builder products.

The intentions are usually good, but there is a very valid reason why we have traditionally only reported repayment data to the credit bureaus if that data is reflective of the consumers’ behavior in managing financial obligations – that’s the data that is useful for making good credit risk decisions!

I understand that it’s a bit unfair that new-to-credit consumers need to start at zero when building their credit histories in the U.S. And I know it’s really difficult to get consumers to change their behaviors rather than simply automating all of their hopes and dreams into existence with the push of a button.

But you know what? That’s the way the world works! Behavior change is hard but necessary if you want to actually help people.

And much like my great-grandfather and the sheep, I’m guessing that the only way to fix this problem will be for all of these fintech credit builder product users to go out into the real world, apply for the loans they think they’re now qualified for, and let the free market sort it out.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
User avatar
youthathletics
Posts: 15810
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Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by youthathletics »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Sun Nov 19, 2023 11:07 am
youthathletics wrote: Sun Nov 19, 2023 10:12 am The New York City commercial real estate meltdown begins...https://x.com/TripleNetInvest/status/17 ... 95645?s=20

Some of the comments from the owner about a possible tenant are interesting...

Bob Knakal | NYC Investment Sales
@BobKnakal 17h
The old owner told me he was meeting a potential tenant for 4 floors in the building and in front was a guy with a needle sticking out of his arm and another one taking a dump right in front of the door. The tenant saw this and wouldn’t even go in and look at the space. Our knucklehead policy makers are killing the city. They need to wake up and wake up fast!! Terrible policies lead to terrible conditions.
If you only knew Bon Knakal…he’s done a good job spinning up a narrative of his firing from cushman but there’s more to the story.

And this is relevant when you are taking a third person story from another person and using it as evidence of anything. It’s important to have an idea of the messengers agenda.

(Built a nice little brokerage business called Massey Knakal in the tri state area on small balance deals but total intermediary zero skin in the game risk transference mentality)
Is he wrong in this instance? I dont know...this is your world.
A fraudulent intent, however carefully concealed at the outset, will generally, in the end, betray itself.
~Livy


“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23812
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

youthathletics wrote: Sun Nov 19, 2023 3:29 pm
Farfromgeneva wrote: Sun Nov 19, 2023 11:07 am
youthathletics wrote: Sun Nov 19, 2023 10:12 am The New York City commercial real estate meltdown begins...https://x.com/TripleNetInvest/status/17 ... 95645?s=20

Some of the comments from the owner about a possible tenant are interesting...

Bob Knakal | NYC Investment Sales
@BobKnakal 17h
The old owner told me he was meeting a potential tenant for 4 floors in the building and in front was a guy with a needle sticking out of his arm and another one taking a dump right in front of the door. The tenant saw this and wouldn’t even go in and look at the space. Our knucklehead policy makers are killing the city. They need to wake up and wake up fast!! Terrible policies lead to terrible conditions.
If you only knew Bon Knakal…he’s done a good job spinning up a narrative of his firing from cushman but there’s more to the story.

And this is relevant when you are taking a third person story from another person and using it as evidence of anything. It’s important to have an idea of the messengers agenda.

(Built a nice little brokerage business called Massey Knakal in the tri state area on small balance deals but total intermediary zero skin in the game risk transference mentality)
Is he wrong in this instance? I dont know...this is your world.
He’s sharing a second hand story. “The old owner” means not the current owner so who knows if it’s even true or accurate first of all. The ok’d owner could’ve lost the building to a lender snd now he’s talking ish about it and bitter or sold at a bad price as a forced seller. His word as former owner is irrelevant. As is a third party broker with a bad history who has no skin in the game.

It’s possible it happened and can happen but highly unlikely unless it’s in some hood in a borough side street building or maybe in the garment district perhaps if not northeastern Harlem. But most owners would ensure their guiding don’t have issues the day a prospective would walk it so I find it pretty unlikely unless it’s a Ruby Schron type (type because Schron is multifamily only but there are similar types that own offices throughout NYC) of owner in which case you, I and everyone else isn’t having sympathy for him since he doesn’t clean his properties and has tenants live in squalor anyways.

DiBlasio is an idiot who did a lot of stupid and long term damaging things, Adams is just goofy.

But what your missing I think is that this guy is looking for a problem to make a political statement. And the guy is dirty. So his politics reflect that.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23812
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

UBS put out a global real estate bubble index.

https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-ma ... x-2023.pdf

Miami #2
NYC #4
Boston, Los Angeles and San Francisco also on top list.
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23812
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Think he’s thankful to not be in max security.

Used pouches to pay for services…”hey Mr HonDuran President, three packs of Mack for the sweet new celly of yours.”

Sam Bankman-Fried’s Life Behind Bars: Crypto Tips and Paying With Fish

FTX founder learns that mackerel is a jailhouse currency and shares a dorm with other high-profile defendants


Mackerel has replaced cigarettes as a favored federal jailhouse currency after officials banned smoking, and inmates sometimes use pouches of the preserved fish purchased in a commissary to pay for services from one another. Bankman-Fried traded some pouches of macks, as they are known, to a fellow inmate for a haircut of his signature moptop ahead of his trial, one of the people said.

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The FTX founder has been in jail since a federal judge revoked his bail in August after finding probable cause that he attempted to intimidate witnesses, a claim Bankman-Fried denied. Earlier this month, a jury took only a few hours to convict him on charges that he stole billions of dollars from FTX customers while defrauding investors and lenders. He is scheduled to be sentenced March 28, after which he will move to a federal prison to serve out his sentence.

The Brooklyn detention center is a far cry from the $30 million penthouse apartment in the Bahamas that Bankman-Fried once called home.


FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted earlier this month of stealing billions of dollars from customers of the doomed crypto exchange. Photo: John Lamparski/Zuma Press
He is allowed non-attorney visitors once a week and has access to a specialized laptop that allows him to review legal material, the person familiar with the matter said. He and other inmates are allowed to use computers in a room that has desks separated by plastic dividers, according to the person. While Bankman-Fried’s days of investing billions of dollars in startups and trading digital tokens are behind him, he has been giving tips on crypto to guards, the person said.

A Federal Bureau of Prisons spokesman said the bureau couldn’t comment on the conditions for any individual in its custody for privacy and security reasons. The bureau makes every effort to ensure the safety of inmates while providing a secure and humane environment, he said.

“Sam’s doing the best he can under the circumstances,” Bankman-Fried’s spokesman, Mark Botnick, said.

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At the trial, Bankman-Fried testified that while he regretted not having better risk-management at the crypto exchange, he didn’t commit fraud. His lawyers have said Bankman-Fried plans to appeal the conviction, which could lead to a decadeslong prison sentence.

Once Bankman-Fried is relocated to a federal prison to serve his sentence, he will likely have more freedom of movement, in addition to better access to educational programming and recreation, said prison consultant Bill Baroni, a lawyer who was convicted for his role in the New Jersey Bridgegate scandal, in which associates of former Gov. Chris Christie were accused of creating traffic jams for political retribution.

“When he is sentenced, his life will get better,” said Baroni, whose fraud conviction was subsequently thrown out by the Supreme Court. “He’ll be out of the facility with the most violent people.”

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Other white-collar inmates have served time in facilities that are close to their families or offer more programming. Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes, who was convicted of defrauding investors in the blood-testing company, is currently at the all-female, minimum-security prison camp in Bryan, Texas, located between Austin and Houston.

The Brooklyn detention center has been criticized by defense lawyers and the union representing jail guards for poor conditions and being severely understaffed for years. The Federal Bureau of Prisons spokesman said that maintaining fully staffed institutions is a key priority for the bureau.


Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center, where Sam Bankman-Fried awaits sentencing for seven felony offenses. Photo: Brendan McDermid/Reuters
People familiar with the matter say Bankman-Fried’s unit mates include Genaro García Luna, Mexico’s former secretary of public security who was convicted earlier this year of helping the powerful Sinaloa cartel smuggle more than 50 tons of cocaine into the U.S. García Luna is awaiting sentencing.

Another unit inmate is former Honduras President Juan Orlando Hernández, who is awaiting trial on federal drug-trafficking and firearms charges. Hernández pleaded not guilty after being extradited to the U.S. in 2022.

Hernández’s defense lawyer, Raymond Colon, said his client and Bankman-Fried have had cordial conversations with one another at the jail. Colon said staffing shortages can lead to canceled visiting hours, but Hernández generally doesn’t complain about the conditions.

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“It’s certainly not a hotel,” Colon said.

Bankman-Fried initially subsisted on peanut butter, bread and water because the jail wasn’t accommodating his vegan diet, one of his lawyers said in a court appearance in late August. He also had trouble getting his proper dosage of prescribed Adderall, the lawyer said.

His access to food and medication—which he takes for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder—have since been resolved. He receives vegetarian meals at the jail, a person familiar with the matter said.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

What would be an appropriate sentence for Sam Bankman-Fried? Join the conversation below.

Inmates at the detention center are typically confined to their unit, and don’t move freely around the facility. Instead of eating in a communal cafeteria, as at some prisons, meals are delivered to individual units, said Christine Dynan, a prison consultant who previously worked at the center and other federal facilities.

Many inmates prefer to purchase food, as well as clothes and toiletries, through the Brooklyn jail’s commissary. A list of commissary items shows that peanut butter costs $4.15, a pair of sneakers are $79.95 and an MP3 player is $88.40. A pouch of mackerel fillets costs $1.30, up 30% from $1 in 2020.

Baroni, the prison consultant, said that when Bankman-Fried moves to a federal prison he will likely bring his mackerel packets with him. Baroni said he paid four macks for his own haircut while in prison.

“The mack currency system is far more stable than crypto,” he said.

Write to James Fanelli at [email protected] and Corinne Ramey at [email protected]

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Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
Farfromgeneva
Posts: 23812
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:53 am

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by Farfromgeneva »

Just taught my son about intangible asset market economics playing monopoly. Kid kept landing in jail and I had two get out of jail free cards I sold him my two cards successively for 350 and 450k
Now I love those cowboys, I love their gold
Love my uncle, God rest his soul
Taught me good, Lord, taught me all I know
Taught me so well, that I grabbed that gold
I left his dead ass there by the side of the road, yeah
KI Dock Bar
Posts: 144
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2022 4:23 pm

Re: The Nation's Financial Condition

Post by KI Dock Bar »

Farfromgeneva wrote: Thu Nov 23, 2023 11:57 am Just taught my son about intangible asset market economics playing monopoly. Kid kept landing in jail and I had two get out of jail free cards I sold him my two cards successively for 350 and 450k
Wow! Not sure how old your son is but I taught my son how to play golf when he was 12 and he is shooting in the low 80's now as a college freshman!
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