Expected Goals

[jakester]

How about my boys in Pickle town? Mount Olive

Offense, defense or a high-level survey? Do you have a preference?

No real preference. Overall analysis similar to what you have done so far. Love it!

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Sat Oct 7, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The statistical trends of the Post team in the 2023 season indicate that the performance of individual players and the attack unit as a whole significantly impact the team's success. Post showcased a commendable record amongst conference opponents and teams with similar LaxElo rankings, chalking up 9 victories against 3 defeats. We'll focus on those 12 games in this analysis.

Firstly, the offensive output of Leighton Cooke appears to be a vital factor in Post's performance. When Cooke takes six or more shots, the team's winning record is unblemished at 6-0, and their scoring efficiency stands at 38%. On the flip side, when Cooke shoots less, the team's record drops to 3 - 3 and their efficiency decreases slightly to 32%. And keep in mind, this is a shots threshold, not goals, so it's important to have Cooke involved, even if the shots are necessarily falling.

Dylan Heald's scoring prowess also seems to be a key determinant of Post's success. In games where Heald scored two or more goals, Post was 8-1, with a scoring efficiency of 36%. However, when Heald scored less, Post's success rate fell dramatically, going 1-2 with a slightly lower efficiency rate of 31%.

The contribution of Tim Keefe to the team's offensive success mirrors Heald's impact. Post won 8 out of 9 games when Keefe scored at least one goal and had a cumulative scoring efficiency of 36%. Conversely, when Keefe didn't score, the team's record dropped to 1 - 2, with a scoring efficiency of 30%.

The performance of the entire attack unit also plays a pivotal role in Post's success. When the unit recorded four or more assists, Post won 7 out of 9 games, scoring on 38% of their possessions. However, when the unit had less than four assists, the team's record fell to 2 - 1, with a scoring efficiency of 27%. Similarly, when the attack unit took 32 or more shots, the team won all 3 games with a scoring efficiency of 41%, while their record fell to 6 - 3 when they took fewer shots, scoring on 33% of their possessions.

In summary, the key to Post's success lies in the offensive contributions of key players like Cooke, Heald, and Keefe, as well as the overall performance of the attack unit. The team's win-loss record and scoring efficiency are closely tied to these players' shooting and scoring frequencies and the assist and shot counts of the attack unit.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Wed Oct 11, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Triston Schaffer's season with UIndy was a bit of a step back compared to 2022, although there were some localized bright spots. One of the standout aspects of his game was his shooting efficiency, which ranked in the solid 64th percentile. This suggests that when Schaffer had the ball, he was consistently able to create value with his shots. His ball security also stood out, ranking in the respectable 74th percentile, indicating that decision-making was not an issue.

However, Schaffer's assist rate was less than impressive, falling in the 27th percentile. Furthermore, when comparing his individual player efficiency to the previous year, there was a noticeable drop from the 73rd to the 58th percentile. This suggests that although Schaffer was a mainstay in terms of usage and role on the team, his overall contribution in terms of efficiency saw a decline.

Schaffer's best stretch of games came between March 25 and April 15, where he put up an individual efficiency rating of 80 (out of 100). During this period, he contributed 11.4% of the team's assists, and his shooting efficiency was in the 70th percentile. His ball security was also exceptional, ranking in the 93rd percentile. This period clearly showcased Schaffer's potential when he is performing at his best.

On the other hand, his worst stretch ran from February 11 to March 5. During this time, his individual efficiency rating was only in the 22nd percentile. His shooting efficiency dropped to the 11th percentile and his ball security also decreased to the 38th percentile. Most notably, he had zero assists during this stretch.

In comparing these two periods, it's clear that Schaffer's assist rate was the most significant factor in the disparity between his best and worst games. When his assist rate was high, he was contributing more effectively to the team's success. However, when his assist rate fell, his overall productivity and efficiency also declined. It's just hard to be one-dimensional and be effective in this day and age. You'd probably live with some more turnovers if it meant he was creating more offense as a whole.

In conclusion, Schaffer's season was a mixed bag. While he showed potential in areas such as shooting efficiency and ball security, there's room for improvement in his assist rate and overall individual player efficiency. Despite the ups and downs, Schaffer remained a key player for UIndy, leading the team in usage rate and share of the team's shots.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Wed Oct 25, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

[This article was the result of a reader suggestion. If you've got a suggestion for a team or player to include in Expected Goals, respond to this email and let me know.]

Jérémi Phoenix-Lefebvre's 2023 season was a year of growth and development as he became more involved in the Lakers' offensive system. He recorded a 39th percentile share of the team's shots, still not enormous, but a significant increase from his 0.7% share in 2022. His increased involvement was not without its challenges, and it had a clear impact on his ball security, which fell to the 32nd percentile from the 83rd percentile in the previous season. All in all, he ended 2023 with a 66th percentile efficiency rating, down from the 75th percentile in 2022. It's not surprising to see a lower efficiency when a player takes on a larger role given the increased defensive attention this can bring.f

In terms of his shooting efficiency, Phoenix-Lefebvre made substantial strides. He rose from the 24th percentile in 2022 to a more robust 52nd percentile in 2023. (Shooting efficiency is a small improvement on shooting percentage, which puts more emphasis on high-leverage shots that are on-cage.) On one hand, a league-average shooting efficiency is not necessarily notable, but compared to his first season, you'll take it. This improvement in efficiency, coupled with his 64th percentile assist rate, revealed a player who was increasingly comfortable in his role and contributing more effectively to the team's offense.

Looking at Phoenix-Lefebvre's performances, his best four-game stretch from April 25 to May 6 encapsulated his improved skill set. During these games against Malone, Wheeling, Lake Erie, and Seton Hill, his individual efficiency rating peaked in the 84th percentile. Mercyhurst went 4-0 over this stretch of games. Despite this being his best stretch, his ball security rating was actually below average, sitting in the 36th percentile. He only had 3% of the team's assists during this period. A pass-first facilitator, he was not.

On the flip side of the coin, his worst stretch was from March 18 to April 4 (this was the start of his season), where despite a larger role as a passer, with a 6.5% share of the team's assists, he didn't tally a single goal. These games against UIndy, Alderson-Broaddus, Mercy, and Walsh, saw a dip in his individual efficiency rating to the 9th percentile. His assist rate, at the 79th percentile, was a bright spot during this less successful period. Think about that for a second; his share of the team's assists climbed to 6.5% during these games, suggesting more of a facilitator focus, but given the efficiency numbers being so low, I'm not sure this is a good thing. It feels like his season really got on track once he got a bit more aggressive in going to goal and becoming more of a finisher. When he was in pass-first mode, yes, he was generating assists, but the team wasn't winning as much and his actual contribution was starkly lower.

In summary, Phoenix-Lefebvre's 2023 season was characterized by his expanding role within the Lakers' system and the growing pains that came with it. His shooting efficiency improved notably, suggesting a player evolving and adapting to his increased responsibility. However, the dip in his ball security and the disparity in performance between his best and worst stretches underscore the areas Phoenix-Lefebvre will likely seek to address in the coming seasons. Despite these challenges, his growth from 2022 to 2023 suggests a promising future.


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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Mon Oct 23, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The analysis covers the 2023 season for Mount Olive, focusing specifically on their performance in the 10 games that they played against conference opponents and teams of similar LaxElo rankings. They were 5-5 in these contests; now we try to figure out which facets of their game were most critical to earning a win or suffering a loss.

A key trend that underpins Mount Olive's victories is their ability to generate offense through passing and assists. When the team assists on more than 50% of their goals, their win record is a strong 5 - 2, and their offensive efficiency jumps to 31%. However, when the team assists on fewer than 50% of their goals, the team has not secured a single win in 3 outings and their efficiency drops to 19%.

Spotlighting individual players, Samuel Skousen and Chaz Goodman play a crucial role in the team's success. When these players maintain an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.00, the team generally performs better, scoring on 36% and 34% of their possessions respectively. However, when their ratios dip below 1.00, the team's efficiency falls to 22% and 20% respectively.

Shooting percentage is another key determinant of the team's performance. When the team's shooting percentage exceeds 31.9%, their win-loss record is 2 - 1, with an offensive efficiency of 36%. However, when the shooting percentage falls below this threshold, their efficiency drops to 24% and their win-loss record dips to 3 - 4.

Finally, Aidan Lalonde's assist record stands out as a significant factor. When Lalonde records 1 or more assists, the team's win-loss record is a remarkable 5 - 1, with an offensive efficiency of 30%. Conversely, when Lalonde fails to record a helper, the team has not secured a single win and their efficiency falls to 23%.

In conclusion, Mount Olive's performance appears to pivot on their ability to generate offense through assists and to maintain a high shooting percentage. Individual players, namely Skousen, Goodman, and Lalonde, significantly influence the team's winning potential, with their assist-to-turnover ratios and assist records being key indicators of the team's success.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Fri Oct 27, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Barton's overall performance in the 2023 season was solid, as they put together a 7-3 record in the 10 games that they played against conference opponents and teams with similar LaxElo rankings. Their victories included games against Chowan, Lees-McRae, Coker, and Belmont Abbey, while their defeats were against North Greenville, Mount Olive, and Belmont Abbey. Our goal here is to identify the statistical thresholds that we most correlated with wins or losses.

The most significant threshold that surfaced from the analysis of Barton's performance revolves around the team's assist-to-turnover ratio. We found that when the team had a ratio above 0.80 (so 4 assists for every five turnovers), they secured five wins with no losses, scoring on 35% of their offensive possessions. However, when the ratio fell below this threshold, their efficiency dropped to 27%, resulting in a 2-3 record. This suggests that when the team as a whole has the ball spinning, creating assist chances and fewer turnovers, it is linked to much better outcomes on the scoreboard. And since no other threshold had such a large split between above-the-line games and below-the-line games, it's fair to assume that this is the most critical facet of their game.

In addition, several other factors were identified as having a significant, if slightly less critical, impact on Barton's performance. A noteworthy trend was that when the midfield unit took 26 or more shots, Barton registered a 5 - 1 record. Furthermore, Mason Chaney's individual performance also emerged as a crucial factor, with Barton winning all four games in which Chaney took eight or more shots, reflecting a strong correlation between his active involvement and the team's success. Note that we aren't saying that those shots had to go in, just that his involvement was important, either in getting him going or for the balance that it provided.

In conclusion, while Barton's overall performance in the 2023 season was strong, the analysis reveals that the team's success is largely dependent on their assist-to-turnover ratio and the midfield unit's involvement. These trends not only provide a comprehensive picture of Barton's strengths and weaknesses but also highlight the potential areas of improvement for the upcoming season.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Sun Nov 5, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Daniel Pearl's 2023 season with Lincoln Memorial was a blend of promise and areas for growth. His 5.5% usage rate indicated a middling role within the team's offensive strategy, but his share of the team's assists stood at an impressive 14.5%, suggesting a keen vision on the field. From a skills perspective, Pearl's ball security sat at the 47th percentile, indicating room for improvement. However, he demonstrated robust ability in assist rate and shooting efficiency, ranking in the 63rd and 76th percentiles respectively. Altogether, he was a perfectly average contributor, with an individual efficiency rating that was at exactly 50 (on a 100 point scale). That said, individual efficiency tends to rise as players get more experience, so it's a pretty good number for a young player.

Pearl's shooting efficiency is particularly notable. A 76th percentile rating suggests he was able to contribute significant value from shooting, an attribute that could make him a potent threat on offense. This efficiency indicates not just accuracy but also well-timed and intelligent shot selection because shooting efficiency dings players who shot a lot of shots into the goalies chest; that's not the case here.

Historically, players displaying a similar statistical profile to Pearl have generally seen pretty solid growth in future seasons. The most successful of these is Nathan Grenon from Mercyhurst. Grenon's 2018 season mirrored Pearl's current profile, and his subsequent career saw notable growth in shooting efficiency, assist rate, and ball security. Most impressively, his individual player efficiency rocketed to the 88th percentile. This trajectory demonstrates the potential Pearl has for significant improvement, especially if he can improve his assist rate which is the biggest gap between the two players.

Looking at the broader picture, out of 14 players who qualified as a "close comp", 12 managed to improve their efficiency over their subsequent seasons. The key factor in this improvement was an increase in ball security from the 39th to the 54th percentile and assist rate going from the 64th to the 74th percentile. However, it's worth noting that two players saw a decrease in their effectiveness, largely due to a drop in shooting efficiency and stagnant ball security. It's such a common trend, a strong shooter has to develop their skills as a distributor or risk a decline when defenses start to key on them.

For Lincoln Memorial to capitalize on Pearl's potential, focusing on improving ball security should be a priority. The team's turnover rate was in the 32nd percentile nationally, indicating a clear area for enhancement. As Pearl's role within the team likely increases, his development in this area could have a significant impact on the team's overall performance.

In conclusion, Pearl's future holds promise. His assist rate and shooting efficiency suggest a player with significant offensive potential. If he can improve his ball security and continue to develop his other skills, he could follow in the footsteps of players like Nathan Grenon. For Lincoln Memorial, Pearl's growth could be a key factor in turning their offensive performance around in future seasons.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Fri Nov 3, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

In the 2023 season, Davenport's performance hinged on several key statistical indicators. Their record in games against conference peers and similarly ranked teams was 4 - 5, with standout performers and some interesting nuances playing a hidden-but-critical role in their success. To identify these thresholds, the idea is to find the specific metrics where the difference in offensive efficiency is starkest above and below the line.

One of the key factors influencing Davenport's success was Dylan Day's performance. When Day took 4 or more shots, Davenport won four out of five times and scored on 29% of their possessions. However, when he took less than 4 shots, the team went 0-4, with an efficiency dropping to 24%. And I'm not saying that those shots had to go in; just that he was involved in the offense. (A similar pattern held with respect to James Johnston's shot totals as well, but the record difference wasn't as stark, so it's a less critical factor.)

Another interesting trend was related to whether the attack unit was in a giving state-of-mind or not. In games where the attack unit recorded 4 or more assists, Davenport was 4-2 versus 0-3 when the unit had fewer than 4 assists. The complementary trend here is the midfield-as-finishers. In the 6 games where the midfield took 8 or more shots, Davenport went 4-2 versus 0-3 when they did not. This gives the sense that the best version of this offense was one in which the attack was creating offense for the midfield.

Finally, the overall team's shot-on-goal rate influenced the match outcomes, with Davenport going 4 - 1 in games where their rate exceeded 68.8%, scoring on 30% of their possessions. However, when the shot-on-goal rate dropped below 68.8%, Davenport lost all four games, with their efficiency falling to 22%.

Overall, Davenport's season displayed apparent trends and correlations between their offensive strategies, individual performances, and their match outcomes. They players can change, but the system tends to persist, which means that these trends serve as valuable insight for future opponents planning to face Davenport in the coming seasons.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Fri Nov 10, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The offensive unit for Palm Beach Atlantic showed a slight improvement in their efficiency, finishing with a 25.4% efficiency rating, up from 23.2% last year. This improvement was mainly driven by an increase in shooting efficiency, which rose from 34.3% to 37.7%. The team's shooting percentage also saw a small increase from 25.5% to 28.8%. These improvements in shooting efficiency and shooting percentage contributed to the offense's overall improvement. However, the offense still struggled to produce at a high level, finishing only 49th nationally in opponent-adjusted efficiency.

On the defensive side, Palm Beach Atlantic struggled in the 2023 season, allowing a higher opponent efficiency rate of 33.9% compared to 28.2% in the previous year. The defense saw increases in both shooting percentage (32.1% to 35.6%) and shooting efficiency (40.6% to 43.5%). These increases indicate that the defense struggled to disrupt opposing offenses and prevent quality scoring opportunities. Additionally, the defense's turnover rate worsened, going from 38.5% to 33.3%. These defensive struggles resulted in a disappointing 62nd national ranking in defensive efficiency.

In terms of possession game, Palm Beach Atlantic managed a small improvement in their per-game possession margin, increasing from +1.0 to +1.6. Their faceoff win rate was a bright spot, improving from 49.0% to 53.1%. This improvement in faceoff win rate was a significant factor in their increased possession margin. The team's faceoff performance was particularly impressive in the second half of the season, posting a win rate of 58%, up from 49% in the first half. The faceoff win rate placed them as the 33rd opponent-adjusted unit this season, and their overall possession-margin was 34th. Clearly, this was the team's strength.

Ultimately, the defensive performance exemplified what was ultimately a disappointing season for Palm Beach Atlantic. Their defensive efficiency worsened, with increases in opponent shooting percentage and shooting efficiency. The defense also struggled to force turnovers, with a decline in turnover rate. These defensive weaknesses significantly impacted the team's overall performance and contributed to their drop in the LaxElo ratings.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Mon Nov 6, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

In 2023, the Lewis offense took a solid chunk out of their turnover rate, which dropped from 34.0% in 2022 (35th nationally) to 31.0% in 2023 (22nd nationally). This improvement was driven by players like Baden Boyenko, who reduced his turnover rate from 79.2% last year to 41.2% this year. This had an outsized impact, since Boyenko recorded 19% of the team's assists and was one of their key distributors. However, their overall opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency remained largely the same, with a slight increase from 30.5% in 2022 (31st nationally) to 30.6% in 2023 (29th nationally).

On the defensive side, Lewis showed significant improvement in limiting their opponents' shooting efficiency, which went from 37.6% in 2022 (33rd nationally) to 31.9% in 2023 (9th nationally). This improvement was evident in the first half of the season, where their adjusted shooting efficiency was 29.4%. However, in the second half, their shooting efficiency was not as good, coming in at 34.8%. So they regressed a bit in the second half, but it was still a very impressive number. Overall, their opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency improved from 26.7% in 2022 (28th nationally) to 22.6% in 2023 (13th nationally).

In terms of the possession game, Lewis made strides in their faceoff win rate, going from 44.6% in 2022 (49th nationally) to 54.1% in 2023 (29th nationally). This improvement was particularly notable in the second half of the season, where their faceoff win rate rose to 59.4%. While their defense regressed a bit in the latter stages of the season, the faceoff unit turned it on. As a result, their per-game possession margin was quite a bit better, going from -2.1 in 2022 (47th nationally) to +1.6 in 2023 (35th nationally).

Overall, the team's improvement in faceoff win rate and possession margin played a crucial role in their success during the 2023 season (and their hefty climb up the LaxElo rankings). With a stronger possession game, they were able to generate more opportunities on offense and limit their opponents' possessions on defense. While there were improvements in both offensive and defensive efficiency, the statistical impact of the possession game stood out as the key driver of their overall performance.

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[Hbhhhh]

Can you do Georgian Court of the CACC

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Tue Nov 21, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

During Stefano Evan's 2023 season at D'Youville, we saw a player making a significant contribution to the team's offense, as evidenced by an impressive 19.7% share of the team's assists and an 11.0% usage rate. While his assist rate was in the 50th percentile, indicating room for growth, he showed promising signs in other areas. Evan demonstrated commendable ball security, with a 71st percentile ranking, and an even more notable proficiency in shooting efficiency, where he ranked in the 81st percentile. His overall individual player efficiency landed him in the 62nd percentile, suggesting a solid foundation upon which to build. It is interesting to see such a high share of the team's assists, paired with an 81st percentile shooting efficiency. I'll be curious to see if gets a larger share of the team's shots this season.

And that's because Evan's skill in shooting efficiency is where he shines. Ranking in the 81st percentile, he has proven to be quite adept at creating value on a per-shot basis. This ability to make the most of shooting opportunities not only bolsters the team's offense but also supports the defense by reducing the opponent's chances for transition play. With such a high shooting efficiency, if he gets a larger share of the team's shots this year, it could lead to an improved offensive effectiveness for D'Youville overall.

In examining his potential career trajectory, I like to look back at players who had a similar statistical profile in their early years. And when we take that approach, we find 27 players who qualify as "close comps". Jack Moran, who played for Seton Hill, represents the most successful template for Evan's potential growth. Moran's career progression was remarkable; he improved his shooting efficiency from the 90th to the 95th percentile, his assist rate from the 94th to the 95th percentile, and most notably, his ball security from the 54th to the 91st percentile, culminating in an individual player efficiency in the 93rd percentile. This highlights the significant impact that enhancing assist rate can have on a player's overall effectiveness.

Conversely, of the 27 comparables, 15 saw a decline in terms of efficiency in their latter years, with ball security being a pivotal factor. Where the 12 players who improved managed to increase their ball security from the 53rd to the 68th percentile, the declining group regressed from the 52nd to the 39th percentile. Shooting efficiency also played a role, albeit to a lesser extent, with the improving group maintaining their performance and the declining group's performance dropping from the 75th to the 56th percentile. As with so many players in this part of their career, it's about how you adapt to the increased defensive attention that early success brings.

For D'Youville, whose team turnover rate was notably poor, finishing in the 12th percentile nationally, Evan's continued development in ball security could be particularly beneficial. As his role within the team is likely to expand, maintaining his current level of shooting efficiency while striving to improve his assist rate could lead to significant enhancements in the team's overall efficiency. The extent to which Evan can advance these skills with increased responsibilities will be critical in determining his impact on the team's future success.

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[laxreference]

Can you do Georgian Court of the CACC

Here's their offensive keys-to-victory. I'll add a general year over year summary to the queue. Thanks for the suggestion.

[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Sun Nov 19, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Conor Segreti's 2023 season with Bentley presented a narrative of growth and adaptation, stepping into a substantially larger role with increased responsibility on the field. His usage rate tripled from 3.2% in 2022 to an impressive 9.5% in 2023, signaling the coaching staff's heightened trust in his capabilities and their willingness to integrate him more deeply into the team's offensive system.

It came with a cost though. Likely the result of the increased defensive attention that comes an increase in role, his individual player efficiency plummeted from the previous year's 88th percentile to the 42nd percentile in 2023. Under increased pressure from the defense, his efficiency dropped. That said, his managed to increase his shooting efficiency from the 18th percentile in 2022 to the 49th percentile in 2023, which was a testament to his refined skills in shot selection and goal-scoring aptitude. However, his assist rate saw a decline, slipping from the 78th percentile to the 51st percentile, which could be attributed to the team dynamics and his evolving role on the field.

Segreti's best performances, occurring between April 15 and April 25 against Pace, Saint Michael's, Adelphi, and Southern NH, coincided with a 4-0 Bentley run. During these games, he demonstrated what he was capable of when firing on all cylinders, with his shooting efficiency soaring to the 88th percentile and ball security maintaining a stalwart 92nd percentile. His assist rate during this period was also commendable, situated in the 60th percentile.

In stark contrast, Segreti's most challenging period spanned from April 22 to May 6, as Bentley faced off against Adelphi, Southern NH, Adelphi again, and Le Moyne. In these outings, Bentley managed a 3 - 1 record, but Segreti's performance indicators dipped, with his individual efficiency falling to the 20th percentile. His shooting efficiency, a critical component of his success, dropped significantly to the 17th percentile. Despite this, he maintained a relatively solid 71st percentile ball security and a 54th percentile assist rate, indicating that while his scoring touch waned, he still upheld a degree of control and distribution on the field.

The divergence in Segreti's performance during these stretches highlights the crucial role that shooting efficiency played in his overall impact. When his shots found the back of the net with higher frequency, Bentley's offense thrived, and when they didn't, the team's performance hinged on other factors.

Overall, Conor Segreti's season was one of considerable personal development and adaptation to a more pivotal role within Bentley's offense. Despite fluctuations in his statistics, his commitment to improving key areas of his game, such as shooting efficiency and ball security, provided Bentley with valuable contributions throughout the season. Segreti's journey throughout the season demonstrated the nuanced reality of athletic progression—where increased opportunity comes with both successes and the inevitable challenges of adapting to the heightened demands of a central role on the team.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Tue Dec 5, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The 2023 season was revealing for Walsh, particularly when scrutinizing their performance against conference foes and teams of comparable LaxElo rankings. The analysis, focusing on this subset of their schedule, where they posted a 4-6 record, will try to isolate the statistical thresholds that were pivotal to their victories and setbacks. It's not to say that hitting certain marks was a guarantee of victory for them, but looking at these metrics sheds light on what the most critical facets of their game was.

For example, Walsh's success seemed to hinge heavily on individual contributions, with particular players' production serving as reliable barometers for the team's overall performance. Evan Stertz simply being involved in the offense was important. In contests where Stertz took more than 12 shots, Walsh boasted a 3-0 record, with a scoring efficiency of 35%. The inverse was just as telling; a less active Stertz, taking fewer shots, correlated with a 1-6 record and a diminished efficiency of 22%.

Team dynamics also played a role, with the assist-to-turnover ratio standing out. Surpassing a ratio of 0.29 (roughly 3 assists for every 10 turnovers) was a sign of Walsh's effectiveness in ball movement and ball security. They were 4-3 with a 30% scoring efficiency when they finished above this mark. Conversely, falling below this threshold painted a starkly different picture. They were 0-3 with an efficiency that was 16 percentage points lower when they had more turnovers or fewer assists.

But again, for Walsh, it was more about whether individual players were productive and invovled. Take Issac Stertz’s and Colby Bowman’s performances. In the 7 games where Issac Stertz's assist-to-turnover ratio was above 0.50, the team was 4-3 record with a 30% scoring efficiency. When Bowman scored three or more goals, Walsh was 3-1 record and their offensive efficiency was 29%. They were 0-3 and 1-5 when these guys were below these thresholds although the efficiency gap was much smaller for the Bowman number, suggesting that his scoring was a less critical factor for the offense.

Tosh Pazuik's shot volume similarly echoed this pattern. When taking six or more shots, Walsh's record was 3-1 with a 33% scoring efficiency, a stark contrast to the 1-5 record and 20% efficiency when Pazuik was less involved in the shooting department. Although like the Evan Stertz finding, this was not about scoring necessarily, just that he was sufficiently involved in the offense. This speaks to how important having a balance attack was for Walsh. They were less successful when all of their offense came from a smaller group of players.

In essence, the 2023 season for Walsh revealed a team that thrived or faltered based on the contributions of key players. Their statistical thresholds were almost exclusively tied to individual performances, suggesting a vulnerability to opponents capable of neutralizing these players.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Thu Nov 30, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

The most significant decline for the team came on the offensive side of the ball, where their efficiency plummeted from a not-great 23.0% to a dismal 10.1%, dragging them down 15 spots to rank 74th nationally. This steep drop was influenced by a corresponding increase in turnover rate, which spiked from 36.5% to 50.7%, and a decrease in shooting percentage from 25.3% to 15.2%. The offensive shooting-efficiency also suffered, falling from 33.6% to 23.4%, further highlighting their struggles to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Defensively, the team's performance was also troubling, with efficiency finishing the year at 44.5%. This was a significant rise from the previous year's 33.0%, causing a drop of 11 spots to rank 74th. Contributing to this was a decline in their ability to force turnovers, with the defensive turnover rate dropping to 19.9% from 30.4%. Additionally, the defense allowed a higher shooting percentage to their opponents, up from 33.3% to 38.7%, indicating a less effective defense against shots on goal.

Despite these struggles, the possession game showed a positive trend, with the faceoff win rate increasing to 64.3% from 60.6%, which lifted them 7 spots to 7th nationally. However, the per-game possession margin decreased to +0.8 from +2.9, likely due to struggles in the clearing and riding game.

Ultimately, the offensive downturn exemplified what ended up being a woeful season. Their inability to maintain possession and convert opportunities into goals, as evidenced by their low efficiency and high turnover rate, hindered any chance of a successful campaign.

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[laxreference]

This was originally published in the Tue Dec 19, 2023 edition of Expected Goals, my daily newsletter.

Luke Jaber's season with Bentley was a mixed bag that showcased both his potential and areas for growth. One of the most notable aspects of his performance was his commendable shooting efficiency, which placed him in the 77th percentile. This indicates that when Jaber took his chances, he did so with precision, making a solid contribution to the team's offensive efforts.

However, not all facets of Jaber's game were as impressive. His ball security, for instance, was in the 29th percentile, reflecting a challenge in maintaining possession and potentially squandering offensive opportunities. Compared to the previous season, where his individual player efficiency was in the 58th percentile, there was a noticeable drop, with this season's efficiency falling to the 31st percentile.

Jaber's assist rate was respectable, sitting in the 56th percentile, which suggests he was not a one-dimensional finisher, although there is room for improvement. An interesting note for Jaber was that 83% of his goals were assisted, underscoring his reliance on team dynamics for scoring. Between the turnover rate and the fact that only 17% of his goals were unassisted, generating offense on his own was not his strength.

In terms of general involvement, Jaber was a strong presence. With a ground ball win rate in the 86th percentile and similarly high rankings in shares of the team's shots (86th percentile), assists (88th percentile), and overall usage rate (92nd percentile), it was clear that Jaber played a crucial role in Bentley's offensive system.

Examining Jaber's performance across different stretches of the season provides further insight. His best four-game period came between March 18th and March 28th against Saint Rose, Mercy, Franklin Pierce, and Assumption, where Bentley went 3-1 overall. During this time, Jaber's individual efficiency rating climbed to the 60th percentile, and his role significantly expanded, indicated by an 18.9% share of the team's shots and a 23.5% share of assists. Moreover, his skill-based statistics improved, with a 79th percentile shooting efficiency and an 80th percentile assist rate, reflecting a period of high productivity.

Conversely, Jaber's most challenging stretch was from April 22nd to May 6th against Adelphi, Southern NH, Adelphi again, and Le Moyne. Despite the team again registering three victories, Jaber's individual efficiency plummeted to the 7th percentile. His share of the team's shots and assists also decreased to 10.1% and 10.0%, respectively. Interestingly, his shooting efficiency remained high at the 86th percentile, but a significant drop in ball security to the 9th percentile and a lower assist rate at the 26th percentile marked this period as less productive. The defenses didn't let him shoot as much, and he had a hard time contributing to the same degree as a facilitator of the offense, rather than as a finisher.

It is intriguing to note that, despite Jaber's better individual performance during his best stretch, Bentley's opponent-adjusted efficiency as a team was actually lower compared to when Jaber struggled. This suggests that while Jaber's personal success may not have directly translated to a more effective team performance, his efforts did not go unnoticed.

In summary, Luke Jaber's season had its highs and lows, with his shooting efficiency being the bright spot. However, the inconsistency in his ball security and the fluctuation in his individual efficiency highlighted areas where he could get better. As Jaber's role remained steady from the previous year, the shifts in his performance appeared to be more reflective of his execution rather than changes in responsibility. Looking ahead, maintaining the strengths and addressing the weaknesses evident in these statistics will be key to Jaber's continued development as a player.</p>

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