The Nation's Financial Condition

[Farfromgeneva]

As I said before, codifying the 32 hour workweek was always a jon starter. An opening ask in a larger existential negotiation from their perspective.

UAW’s Demand for 32-Hour Workweek Takes Back Seat in Talks

Proposal captivated workers’ attention, but negotiations have focused on issues such as pay

Nora Eckert

As negotiations grind on between the United Auto Workers and Detroit’s automakers, one union demand that stoked worker enthusiasm has gotten little focus at the bargaining table: a 32-hour workweek for 40 hours of pay.

The proposal isn’t completely off the table. But union leaders initially floated the idea knowing it was a long shot, and did so to spark dialogue on improving work-life balance, people familiar with the strategy said. Meanwhile, wage increases, cost-of-living adjustments and higher pay for entry-level workers are taking priority in negotiations, as a limited strike of General Motors, and Jeep maker Stellantis continues.

UAW President Shawn Fain has threatened to call more factory walkouts Friday if substantial progress isn’t made in the talks, which union negotiators are conducting in parallel with each automaker. Three plants—one per company—have been down for nearly a week, with 12,700 workers on picket lines.

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

The union declined to comment.

A limited UAW strike of General Motors, Ford Motor and Jeep maker Stellantis started Sept. 15. Photo: Emily Elconin/Bloomberg News
Fain and his team have said the demand is a nod to the union’s roots as a progressive labor group that fought for improved quality of life. He has drawn inspiration from historical records in the union’s library of how past leaders have advocated for shortened weeks and improved working conditions, he said.

The four-day workweek idea popped up publicly in early August, when Fain floated it during a livestream address to workers. One viewer stated that workers shouldn’t have to clock more than 40 hours a week to make a decent wage. “I agree with you brother,” Fain responded. “I think we should push a 32-hour workweek.”

That demand formally made its way to the companies’ bargaining tables as talks heated up.

“The Union proposes that a workweek would be limited to eight hour work days between Monday through Friday,” read a UAW document delivered to the automakers and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

“In addition, each employee would be afforded one fixed day per week (Monday-Friday) for a Personal Day Off. Employees would be compensated for eight hours of pay on their Personal Day Off,” the document said.

The union’s public calls for a four-day workweek come amid a broader debate about schedule flexibility in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, which scrambled the routines of Americans’ lives.

The idea of a four-day workweek specifically has gained ground, too, and some companies have even experimented with the schedule.

The proposal, if implemented, could lead to some workers having nearly 100 paid days off a year. At Ford, workers with more than 20 years of experience would get one paid personal day a week, 25 days of vacation, around 17 paid holidays and two so-called family days.

Fain acknowledged that the demand is provocative and has generated strong reactions outside of Detroit and in the media. “It’s been wild to watch the talking heads on television continue to have a meltdown over this discussion,” Fain said in one of his recent livestreams.

The union offered few specifics about how a shortened schedule would work, which Fain said was partly by design. “I didn’t give specifics on it because I didn’t want to get in the weeds on it,” Fain said of delivering the demand to the companies, in an August interview with The Wall Street Journal. The intent, he said, was to ensure workers can make a better wage on a shorter schedule, and clock overtime if they want, but not be mandated to do so.

Other aspects of the union’s demands, which Fain has called the most audacious in its history, appear to be stalling in talks, according to the latest offers released by the companies and union. These include the return of defined benefit pensions and of retiree medical benefits.

The two sides also are clashing on the issue of wages. The companies have offered what they call historic proposals for around 20% wage increases over four years plus lump-sum payments for signing bonuses and inflation protection. However, a large gap remains between those offers and the union’s initial 40% ask, which has recently fluctuated to the mid-30s range.

Some workers have expressed frustration with the public backlash to the demands for a shorter workweek, bristling at accusations that they are being lazy or asking for too much. Some have concerns about what the proposal could do for their future job security.

“You want to increase the pay but cut the hours,” said Demond Clayton, who works at Stellantis’ Jefferson North Assembly plant in Michigan. “It just opens the door for automation.”

Ryan Felton contributed to this article.

Write to Nora Eckert at [email protected]

[a fan]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

[cradleandshoot]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

IMO when the average selling price is 51,000 dollars most middle class Americans have been priced out of the new car market. When your car payment almost equals your mortgage payment it's time to buy a well maintained used car. It is expensive today just to buy a decent used car. My wife and I have paid for our Toyotas and will maintain them until the wheels fall off. This old guy only uses a car to get from point A to point B. I'm one of those people who has never been a car enthusiast. I'm glad I never caught the bug.

[Farfromgeneva]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

We did the math and the increase was 1.15-1.6% per year on the 46%/4yr increase. This would be separate from that.

But it’s not quite that simple with accounting. Would have to go through timing of inventory, FIFO or LIFO accounting, other costs tied to labor, etc.

It would also hit the lower priced cars harder generally as the impact to every vehicles would be worse at a time when avg costs are inflated.

I don’t think it’s so easy to waive off. And there’s other costs as well.

More importantly once that becomes the ceiling productivity goes down from there as people frame their minds around 32hrs and guides individual slack in themselves. Some of that price is in retail as well.

Sure it’s more a lot but it’s probably more like $1-$1.5k per car and for those who live in urban sprawl growth sunbelt cities with not nearly enough infrastructure built and cars being a near requirement to function that extra (say) $1,250 or so on what was a $18-$22k vehicle 5-7yrs ago that goes for $30k now and with car financing above 7-8% from 0-4% that’s a big hammer on consumers who need cars at the lower economic spectrum.

Can it come from shareholders? Maybe but it’s always easy to look in other peoples pockets. The shareholders who one auto stocks individually or in mutual funds are the same boomers looking for those dividend checks for their retirement.

None of this is ever as simple as it’s framed. Hence the bars in the dead prez song he!! Yeah:

Every job I ever had I had to get on the first day
I find out how to pimp on the system
Two steps ahead of the manager
Getting over on the regular tax free money out of the register
And when I'm working late nights stockin' boxes I'm creepin' their merchandise
And don't put me on dishes I'm dropping them bitches
And taking all day long to mop the kitchen turd
We ain't getting paid commission, minimum wage, modern day slave conditions
Got me flippin' burgers with no power
Can't even buy one off what I make in an hour
I'm not the one to kiss ass for the top position
I take mine off the top like a politician
Where I'm from doing dirt is a part of living
I got mouths to feed I gots to get it

Either way even the Union knew it was a throwaway ask which I pointed out early on in this.

[lagerhead]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

We did the math and the increase was 1.15-1.6% per year on the 46%/4yr increase. This would be separate from that.

But it’s not quite that simple with accounting. Would have to go through timing of inventory, FIFO or LIFO accounting, other costs tied to labor, etc.

It would also hit the lower priced cars harder generally as the impact to every vehicles would be worse at a time when avg costs are inflated.

I don’t think it’s so easy to waive off. And there’s other costs as well.

More importantly once that becomes the ceiling productivity goes down from there as people frame their minds around 32hrs and guides individual slack in themselves. Some of that price is in retail as well.

Sure it’s more a lot but it’s probably more like $1-$1.5k per car and for those who live in urban sprawl growth sunbelt cities with not nearly enough infrastructure built and cars being a near requirement to function that extra (say) $1,250 or so on what was a $18-$22k vehicle 5-7yrs ago that goes for $30k now and with car financing above 7-8% from 0-4% that’s a big hammer on consumers who need cars at the lower economic spectrum.

Can it come from shareholders? Maybe but it’s always easy to look in other peoples pockets. The shareholders who one auto stocks individually or in mutual funds are the same boomers looking for those dividend checks for their retirement.

None of this is ever as simple as it’s framed. Hence the bars in the dead prez song he!! Yeah:

Every job I ever had I had to get on the first day
I find out how to pimp on the system
Two steps ahead of the manager
Getting over on the regular tax free money out of the register
And when I'm working late nights stockin' boxes I'm creepin' their merchandise
And don't put me on dishes I'm dropping them bitches
And taking all day long to mop the kitchen turd
We ain't getting paid commission, minimum wage, modern day slave conditions
Got me flippin' burgers with no power
Can't even buy one off what I make in an hour
I'm not the one to kiss ass for the top position
I take mine off the top like a politician
Where I'm from doing dirt is a part of living
I got mouths to feed I gots to get it

Either way even the Union knew it was a throwaway ask which I pointed out early on in this.

Need to model OT pay kicking in at 32 hours vs 40 as well.

[Farfromgeneva]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

We did the math and the increase was 1.15-1.6% per year on the 46%/4yr increase. This would be separate from that.

But it’s not quite that simple with accounting. Would have to go through timing of inventory, FIFO or LIFO accounting, other costs tied to labor, etc.

It would also hit the lower priced cars harder generally as the impact to every vehicles would be worse at a time when avg costs are inflated.

I don’t think it’s so easy to waive off. And there’s other costs as well.

More importantly once that becomes the ceiling productivity goes down from there as people frame their minds around 32hrs and guides individual slack in themselves. Some of that price is in retail as well.

Sure it’s more a lot but it’s probably more like $1-$1.5k per car and for those who live in urban sprawl growth sunbelt cities with not nearly enough infrastructure built and cars being a near requirement to function that extra (say) $1,250 or so on what was a $18-$22k vehicle 5-7yrs ago that goes for $30k now and with car financing above 7-8% from 0-4% that’s a big hammer on consumers who need cars at the lower economic spectrum.

Can it come from shareholders? Maybe but it’s always easy to look in other peoples pockets. The shareholders who one auto stocks individually or in mutual funds are the same boomers looking for those dividend checks for their retirement.

None of this is ever as simple as it’s framed. Hence the bars in the dead prez song he!! Yeah:

Every job I ever had I had to get on the first day
I find out how to pimp on the system
Two steps ahead of the manager
Getting over on the regular tax free money out of the register
And when I'm working late nights stockin' boxes I'm creepin' their merchandise
And don't put me on dishes I'm dropping them bitches
And taking all day long to mop the kitchen turd
We ain't getting paid commission, minimum wage, modern day slave conditions
Got me flippin' burgers with no power
Can't even buy one off what I make in an hour
I'm not the one to kiss ass for the top position
I take mine off the top like a politician
Where I'm from doing dirt is a part of living
I got mouths to feed I gots to get it

Either way even the Union knew it was a throwaway ask which I pointed out early on in this.

Need to model OT pay kicking in at 32 hours vs 40 as well.

I assumed that was built into their projected number but maybe not.

Think the larger problem is talking about working needs while also discussing the marginal increase in cost of an average car off a 2022-23 baseline. How does labor address potential productivity improvements, even if they cost a few marginal workers their jobs but increase the average comp and satisfaction of the whole, but unions typically die on the hill of member growth Vs reduction (even when sometimes shrinking a little to grow in a more healthy manner lately is the right approach)? How do they do it without increasing the cost of the car which are vehicles they also, as labor who needs better support, are supposed to buy.

Alignment doesn’t mean just skewing in one direction or another. It’s merging of two tracks into one. The arguments here, mainly on the labor side whom I heavily empathize with and think the cash comp request is a reasonable ask, just seem to be “X is doing well so shift some time Y because they have less” vs “this should happen to create synergies between labor and Mgt to benefit all sides including customers”

[Farfromgeneva]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

We did the math and the increase was 1.15-1.6% per year on the 46%/4yr increase. This would be separate from that.

But it’s not quite that simple with accounting. Would have to go through timing of inventory, FIFO or LIFO accounting, other costs tied to labor, etc.

It would also hit the lower priced cars harder generally as the impact to every vehicles would be worse at a time when avg costs are inflated.

I don’t think it’s so easy to waive off. And there’s other costs as well.

More importantly once that becomes the ceiling productivity goes down from there as people frame their minds around 32hrs and guides individual slack in themselves. Some of that price is in retail as well.

Sure it’s more a lot but it’s probably more like $1-$1.5k per car and for those who live in urban sprawl growth sunbelt cities with not nearly enough infrastructure built and cars being a near requirement to function that extra (say) $1,250 or so on what was a $18-$22k vehicle 5-7yrs ago that goes for $30k now and with car financing above 7-8% from 0-4% that’s a big hammer on consumers who need cars at the lower economic spectrum.

Can it come from shareholders? Maybe but it’s always easy to look in other peoples pockets. The shareholders who one auto stocks individually or in mutual funds are the same boomers looking for those dividend checks for their retirement.

None of this is ever as simple as it’s framed. Hence the bars in the dead prez song he!! Yeah:

Every job I ever had I had to get on the first day
I find out how to pimp on the system
Two steps ahead of the manager
Getting over on the regular tax free money out of the register
And when I'm working late nights stockin' boxes I'm creepin' their merchandise
And don't put me on dishes I'm dropping them bitches
And taking all day long to mop the kitchen turd
We ain't getting paid commission, minimum wage, modern day slave conditions
Got me flippin' burgers with no power
Can't even buy one off what I make in an hour
I'm not the one to kiss ass for the top position
I take mine off the top like a politician
Where I'm from doing dirt is a part of living
I got mouths to feed I gots to get it

Either way even the Union knew it was a throwaway ask which I pointed out early on in this.

Need to model OT pay kicking in at 32 hours vs 40 as well.

You’re just energy right, don’t traffic in ag or livestock commodities correct? Looking for technical reasons that chicken dropped so much over beef other than simply a supply spike due to the again flu a year or two ago reducing chicken inventories.

[lagerhead]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

We did the math and the increase was 1.15-1.6% per year on the 46%/4yr increase. This would be separate from that.

But it’s not quite that simple with accounting. Would have to go through timing of inventory, FIFO or LIFO accounting, other costs tied to labor, etc.

It would also hit the lower priced cars harder generally as the impact to every vehicles would be worse at a time when avg costs are inflated.

I don’t think it’s so easy to waive off. And there’s other costs as well.

More importantly once that becomes the ceiling productivity goes down from there as people frame their minds around 32hrs and guides individual slack in themselves. Some of that price is in retail as well.

Sure it’s more a lot but it’s probably more like $1-$1.5k per car and for those who live in urban sprawl growth sunbelt cities with not nearly enough infrastructure built and cars being a near requirement to function that extra (say) $1,250 or so on what was a $18-$22k vehicle 5-7yrs ago that goes for $30k now and with car financing above 7-8% from 0-4% that’s a big hammer on consumers who need cars at the lower economic spectrum.

Can it come from shareholders? Maybe but it’s always easy to look in other peoples pockets. The shareholders who one auto stocks individually or in mutual funds are the same boomers looking for those dividend checks for their retirement.

None of this is ever as simple as it’s framed. Hence the bars in the dead prez song he!! Yeah:

Every job I ever had I had to get on the first day
I find out how to pimp on the system
Two steps ahead of the manager
Getting over on the regular tax free money out of the register
And when I'm working late nights stockin' boxes I'm creepin' their merchandise
And don't put me on dishes I'm dropping them bitches
And taking all day long to mop the kitchen turd
We ain't getting paid commission, minimum wage, modern day slave conditions
Got me flippin' burgers with no power
Can't even buy one off what I make in an hour
I'm not the one to kiss ass for the top position
I take mine off the top like a politician
Where I'm from doing dirt is a part of living
I got mouths to feed I gots to get it

Either way even the Union knew it was a throwaway ask which I pointed out early on in this.

Need to model OT pay kicking in at 32 hours vs 40 as well.

You’re just energy right, don’t traffic in ag or livestock commodities correct? Looking for technical reasons that chicken dropped so much over beef other than simply a supply spike due to the again flu a year or two ago reducing chicken inventories.

Previous energy trading. Now work in IRD and SOFR.

[Farfromgeneva]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

We did the math and the increase was 1.15-1.6% per year on the 46%/4yr increase. This would be separate from that.

But it’s not quite that simple with accounting. Would have to go through timing of inventory, FIFO or LIFO accounting, other costs tied to labor, etc.

It would also hit the lower priced cars harder generally as the impact to every vehicles would be worse at a time when avg costs are inflated.

I don’t think it’s so easy to waive off. And there’s other costs as well.

More importantly once that becomes the ceiling productivity goes down from there as people frame their minds around 32hrs and guides individual slack in themselves. Some of that price is in retail as well.

Sure it’s more a lot but it’s probably more like $1-$1.5k per car and for those who live in urban sprawl growth sunbelt cities with not nearly enough infrastructure built and cars being a near requirement to function that extra (say) $1,250 or so on what was a $18-$22k vehicle 5-7yrs ago that goes for $30k now and with car financing above 7-8% from 0-4% that’s a big hammer on consumers who need cars at the lower economic spectrum.

Can it come from shareholders? Maybe but it’s always easy to look in other peoples pockets. The shareholders who one auto stocks individually or in mutual funds are the same boomers looking for those dividend checks for their retirement.

None of this is ever as simple as it’s framed. Hence the bars in the dead prez song he!! Yeah:

Every job I ever had I had to get on the first day
I find out how to pimp on the system
Two steps ahead of the manager
Getting over on the regular tax free money out of the register
And when I'm working late nights stockin' boxes I'm creepin' their merchandise
And don't put me on dishes I'm dropping them bitches
And taking all day long to mop the kitchen turd
We ain't getting paid commission, minimum wage, modern day slave conditions
Got me flippin' burgers with no power
Can't even buy one off what I make in an hour
I'm not the one to kiss ass for the top position
I take mine off the top like a politician
Where I'm from doing dirt is a part of living
I got mouths to feed I gots to get it

Either way even the Union knew it was a throwaway ask which I pointed out early on in this.

Need to model OT pay kicking in at 32 hours vs 40 as well.

You’re just energy right, don’t traffic in ag or livestock commodities correct? Looking for technical reasons that chicken dropped so much over beef other than simply a supply spike due to the again flu a year or two ago reducing chicken inventories.

Previous energy trading. Now work in IRD and SOFR.

Got it.

Have been having this debate with friends. I’m close to a bank called SouthState, maybe $50Bn in assets now but helped them through a number of their acquisitions as they were $3.5Bn in assets in 2011 when I first got involved with them. They’ve got a robust correspondent business that offers cap Mkts devices like Back to back swaps for other smaller banks and their customers who want fixed rate loans.

The traditional model, even before the new refs and CFTC clearinghouse existence, was to have the ISDAs and terms match exactly to net zero exposition for the correspondent. (I did some hedge advisory work over time for these institutions so knowledgeable enough to be dangerous)

These cats at SouthState are trying to claim end use exception so they can keep the swaps off the clearinghouse and run big markups. But they do this by having the customer face SSB directly on the swap and then they execute economic hedges for themselves on the other side. (Singular or wholesale at times). I think they are both exposed to massive default risk of CRE borrowers at a bunch of much smaller depositories if they swaps are out of the money and the borrower defaults and also believe the ship sailed on them claiming end user exception for this mine of business. Thoughts?

[a fan]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

We did the math and the increase was 1.15-1.6% per year on the 46%/4yr increase. This would be separate from that.

But it’s not quite that simple with accounting. Would have to go through timing of inventory, FIFO or LIFO accounting, other costs tied to labor, etc.

It would also hit the lower priced cars harder generally as the impact to every vehicles would be worse at a time when avg costs are inflated.

I don’t think it’s so easy to waive off. And there’s other costs as well.

More importantly once that becomes the ceiling productivity goes down from there as people frame their minds around 32hrs and guides individual slack in themselves. Some of that price is in retail as well.

Sure it’s more a lot but it’s probably more like $1-$1.5k per car and for those who live in urban sprawl growth sunbelt cities with not nearly enough infrastructure built and cars being a near requirement to function that extra (say) $1,250 or so on what was a $18-$22k vehicle 5-7yrs ago that goes for $30k now and with car financing above 7-8% from 0-4% that’s a big hammer on consumers who need cars at the lower economic spectrum.

Can it come from shareholders? Maybe but it’s always easy to look in other peoples pockets. The shareholders who one auto stocks individually or in mutual funds are the same boomers looking for those dividend checks for their retirement.

None of this is ever as simple as it’s framed. Hence the bars in the dead prez song he!! Yeah:

Every job I ever had I had to get on the first day
I find out how to pimp on the system
Two steps ahead of the manager
Getting over on the regular tax free money out of the register
And when I'm working late nights stockin' boxes I'm creepin' their merchandise
And don't put me on dishes I'm dropping them bitches
And taking all day long to mop the kitchen turd
We ain't getting paid commission, minimum wage, modern day slave conditions
Got me flippin' burgers with no power
Can't even buy one off what I make in an hour
I'm not the one to kiss ass for the top position
I take mine off the top like a politician
Where I'm from doing dirt is a part of living
I got mouths to feed I gots to get it

Either way even the Union knew it was a throwaway ask which I pointed out early on in this.

Need to model OT pay kicking in at 32 hours vs 40 as well.

I agree it's more complex than I made it out to be, and again, not saying they should do it. Simply pointing out that the car companies threw out that $1.5 Billion to scare the public into siding with them. The public doesn't know that $1.5 B is a lot less per car than they think it is......

[Farfromgeneva]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

We did the math and the increase was 1.15-1.6% per year on the 46%/4yr increase. This would be separate from that.

But it’s not quite that simple with accounting. Would have to go through timing of inventory, FIFO or LIFO accounting, other costs tied to labor, etc.

It would also hit the lower priced cars harder generally as the impact to every vehicles would be worse at a time when avg costs are inflated.

I don’t think it’s so easy to waive off. And there’s other costs as well.

More importantly once that becomes the ceiling productivity goes down from there as people frame their minds around 32hrs and guides individual slack in themselves. Some of that price is in retail as well.

Sure it’s more a lot but it’s probably more like $1-$1.5k per car and for those who live in urban sprawl growth sunbelt cities with not nearly enough infrastructure built and cars being a near requirement to function that extra (say) $1,250 or so on what was a $18-$22k vehicle 5-7yrs ago that goes for $30k now and with car financing above 7-8% from 0-4% that’s a big hammer on consumers who need cars at the lower economic spectrum.

Can it come from shareholders? Maybe but it’s always easy to look in other peoples pockets. The shareholders who one auto stocks individually or in mutual funds are the same boomers looking for those dividend checks for their retirement.

None of this is ever as simple as it’s framed. Hence the bars in the dead prez song he!! Yeah:

Every job I ever had I had to get on the first day
I find out how to pimp on the system
Two steps ahead of the manager
Getting over on the regular tax free money out of the register
And when I'm working late nights stockin' boxes I'm creepin' their merchandise
And don't put me on dishes I'm dropping them bitches
And taking all day long to mop the kitchen turd
We ain't getting paid commission, minimum wage, modern day slave conditions
Got me flippin' burgers with no power
Can't even buy one off what I make in an hour
I'm not the one to kiss ass for the top position
I take mine off the top like a politician
Where I'm from doing dirt is a part of living
I got mouths to feed I gots to get it

Either way even the Union knew it was a throwaway ask which I pointed out early on in this.

Need to model OT pay kicking in at 32 hours vs 40 as well.

I agree it's more complex than I made it out to be, and again, not saying they should do it. Simply pointing out that the car companies threw out that $1.5 Billion to scare the public into siding with them. The public doesn't know that $1.5 B is a lot less per car than they think it is......

Sure guess I’m out of touch because I assume anything that comes out of a C suite mouth publicly carries an agenda and is targeted.

[lagerhead]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

We did the math and the increase was 1.15-1.6% per year on the 46%/4yr increase. This would be separate from that.

But it’s not quite that simple with accounting. Would have to go through timing of inventory, FIFO or LIFO accounting, other costs tied to labor, etc.

It would also hit the lower priced cars harder generally as the impact to every vehicles would be worse at a time when avg costs are inflated.

I don’t think it’s so easy to waive off. And there’s other costs as well.

More importantly once that becomes the ceiling productivity goes down from there as people frame their minds around 32hrs and guides individual slack in themselves. Some of that price is in retail as well.

Sure it’s more a lot but it’s probably more like $1-$1.5k per car and for those who live in urban sprawl growth sunbelt cities with not nearly enough infrastructure built and cars being a near requirement to function that extra (say) $1,250 or so on what was a $18-$22k vehicle 5-7yrs ago that goes for $30k now and with car financing above 7-8% from 0-4% that’s a big hammer on consumers who need cars at the lower economic spectrum.

Can it come from shareholders? Maybe but it’s always easy to look in other peoples pockets. The shareholders who one auto stocks individually or in mutual funds are the same boomers looking for those dividend checks for their retirement.

None of this is ever as simple as it’s framed. Hence the bars in the dead prez song he!! Yeah:

Every job I ever had I had to get on the first day
I find out how to pimp on the system
Two steps ahead of the manager
Getting over on the regular tax free money out of the register
And when I'm working late nights stockin' boxes I'm creepin' their merchandise
And don't put me on dishes I'm dropping them bitches
And taking all day long to mop the kitchen turd
We ain't getting paid commission, minimum wage, modern day slave conditions
Got me flippin' burgers with no power
Can't even buy one off what I make in an hour
I'm not the one to kiss ass for the top position
I take mine off the top like a politician
Where I'm from doing dirt is a part of living
I got mouths to feed I gots to get it

Either way even the Union knew it was a throwaway ask which I pointed out early on in this.

Need to model OT pay kicking in at 32 hours vs 40 as well.

You’re just energy right, don’t traffic in ag or livestock commodities correct? Looking for technical reasons that chicken dropped so much over beef other than simply a supply spike due to the again flu a year or two ago reducing chicken inventories.

Previous energy trading. Now work in IRD and SOFR.

Got it.

Have been having this debate with friends. I’m close to a bank called SouthState, maybe $50Bn in assets now but helped them through a number of their acquisitions as they were $3.5Bn in assets in 2011 when I first got involved with them. They’ve got a robust correspondent business that offers cap Mkts devices like Back to back swaps for other smaller banks and their customers who want fixed rate loans.

The traditional model, even before the new refs and CFTC clearinghouse existence, was to have the ISDAs and terms match exactly to net zero exposition for the correspondent. (I did some hedge advisory work over time for these institutions so knowledgeable enough to be dangerous)

These cats at SouthState are trying to claim end use exception so they can keep the swaps off the clearinghouse and run big markups. But they do this by having the customer face SSB directly on the swap and then they execute economic hedges for themselves on the other side. (Singular or wholesale at times). I think they are both exposed to massive default risk of CRE borrowers at a bunch of much smaller depositories if they swaps are out of the money and the borrower defaults and also believe the ship sailed on them claiming end user exception for this mine of business. Thoughts?

They can hedge during term SOFR as an end user. Some regionals refuse to convert existing libor swaps to SOFR, there’s no fixed vs float in SOFR, lenders are pricing this in as well as credit.

[Farfromgeneva]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

We did the math and the increase was 1.15-1.6% per year on the 46%/4yr increase. This would be separate from that.

But it’s not quite that simple with accounting. Would have to go through timing of inventory, FIFO or LIFO accounting, other costs tied to labor, etc.

It would also hit the lower priced cars harder generally as the impact to every vehicles would be worse at a time when avg costs are inflated.

I don’t think it’s so easy to waive off. And there’s other costs as well.

More importantly once that becomes the ceiling productivity goes down from there as people frame their minds around 32hrs and guides individual slack in themselves. Some of that price is in retail as well.

Sure it’s more a lot but it’s probably more like $1-$1.5k per car and for those who live in urban sprawl growth sunbelt cities with not nearly enough infrastructure built and cars being a near requirement to function that extra (say) $1,250 or so on what was a $18-$22k vehicle 5-7yrs ago that goes for $30k now and with car financing above 7-8% from 0-4% that’s a big hammer on consumers who need cars at the lower economic spectrum.

Can it come from shareholders? Maybe but it’s always easy to look in other peoples pockets. The shareholders who one auto stocks individually or in mutual funds are the same boomers looking for those dividend checks for their retirement.

None of this is ever as simple as it’s framed. Hence the bars in the dead prez song he!! Yeah:

Every job I ever had I had to get on the first day
I find out how to pimp on the system
Two steps ahead of the manager
Getting over on the regular tax free money out of the register
And when I'm working late nights stockin' boxes I'm creepin' their merchandise
And don't put me on dishes I'm dropping them bitches
And taking all day long to mop the kitchen turd
We ain't getting paid commission, minimum wage, modern day slave conditions
Got me flippin' burgers with no power
Can't even buy one off what I make in an hour
I'm not the one to kiss ass for the top position
I take mine off the top like a politician
Where I'm from doing dirt is a part of living
I got mouths to feed I gots to get it

Either way even the Union knew it was a throwaway ask which I pointed out early on in this.

Need to model OT pay kicking in at 32 hours vs 40 as well.

You’re just energy right, don’t traffic in ag or livestock commodities correct? Looking for technical reasons that chicken dropped so much over beef other than simply a supply spike due to the again flu a year or two ago reducing chicken inventories.

Previous energy trading. Now work in IRD and SOFR.

Got it.

Have been having this debate with friends. I’m close to a bank called SouthState, maybe $50Bn in assets now but helped them through a number of their acquisitions as they were $3.5Bn in assets in 2011 when I first got involved with them. They’ve got a robust correspondent business that offers cap Mkts devices like Back to back swaps for other smaller banks and their customers who want fixed rate loans.

The traditional model, even before the new refs and CFTC clearinghouse existence, was to have the ISDAs and terms match exactly to net zero exposition for the correspondent. (I did some hedge advisory work over time for these institutions so knowledgeable enough to be dangerous)

These cats at SouthState are trying to claim end use exception so they can keep the swaps off the clearinghouse and run big markups. But they do this by having the customer face SSB directly on the swap and then they execute economic hedges for themselves on the other side. (Singular or wholesale at times). I think they are both exposed to massive default risk of CRE borrowers at a bunch of much smaller depositories if they swaps are out of the money and the borrower defaults and also believe the ship sailed on them claiming end user exception for this mine of business. Thoughts?

They can hedge during term SOFR as an end user. Some regionals refuse to convert existing libor swaps to SOFR, there’s no fixed vs float in SOFR, lenders are pricing this in as well as credit.

I mean on newly originated loans. Borrower comes in and requests fixed rate. Bank doesnt want to offer fixed and have the AL mismatch of floating liabilities (deposits) so they offer fixed rate but it’s a floating rate loan with a back to back rate swap to fix it for the term. The small banks cant even face the street it’s gotten so expensive the large dealers won’t even talk about approving a new counterparty unless there min $100k in annual revs expected so they vast majority of community banks have to go through intermediaries like larger banks or broker dealers and to offer this to their customers. Hence SSBs role. While they are exposed (and the entire equity research and investing universe doesn’t have any clue of the theoretical and unique risk they take-since the swaps put in the last few years would have to move the other way and right now that’s not the case) which allows them to claim end user (and not have the swaps run through transparently so the markups are ridiculous-like many multiples a fair value of CVA would be) it sure seems like the CFTC could slam them anytime they want to get off their Crytpo kick as they aren’t the actual end user.

[Farfromgeneva]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

We did the math and the increase was 1.15-1.6% per year on the 46%/4yr increase. This would be separate from that.

But it’s not quite that simple with accounting. Would have to go through timing of inventory, FIFO or LIFO accounting, other costs tied to labor, etc.

It would also hit the lower priced cars harder generally as the impact to every vehicles would be worse at a time when avg costs are inflated.

I don’t think it’s so easy to waive off. And there’s other costs as well.

More importantly once that becomes the ceiling productivity goes down from there as people frame their minds around 32hrs and guides individual slack in themselves. Some of that price is in retail as well.

Sure it’s more a lot but it’s probably more like $1-$1.5k per car and for those who live in urban sprawl growth sunbelt cities with not nearly enough infrastructure built and cars being a near requirement to function that extra (say) $1,250 or so on what was a $18-$22k vehicle 5-7yrs ago that goes for $30k now and with car financing above 7-8% from 0-4% that’s a big hammer on consumers who need cars at the lower economic spectrum.

Can it come from shareholders? Maybe but it’s always easy to look in other peoples pockets. The shareholders who one auto stocks individually or in mutual funds are the same boomers looking for those dividend checks for their retirement.

None of this is ever as simple as it’s framed. Hence the bars in the dead prez song he!! Yeah:

Every job I ever had I had to get on the first day
I find out how to pimp on the system
Two steps ahead of the manager
Getting over on the regular tax free money out of the register
And when I'm working late nights stockin' boxes I'm creepin' their merchandise
And don't put me on dishes I'm dropping them bitches
And taking all day long to mop the kitchen turd
We ain't getting paid commission, minimum wage, modern day slave conditions
Got me flippin' burgers with no power
Can't even buy one off what I make in an hour
I'm not the one to kiss ass for the top position
I take mine off the top like a politician
Where I'm from doing dirt is a part of living
I got mouths to feed I gots to get it

Either way even the Union knew it was a throwaway ask which I pointed out early on in this.

Need to model OT pay kicking in at 32 hours vs 40 as well.

You’re just energy right, don’t traffic in ag or livestock commodities correct? Looking for technical reasons that chicken dropped so much over beef other than simply a supply spike due to the again flu a year or two ago reducing chicken inventories.

Previous energy trading. Now work in IRD and SOFR.

Got it.

Have been having this debate with friends. I’m close to a bank called SouthState, maybe $50Bn in assets now but helped them through a number of their acquisitions as they were $3.5Bn in assets in 2011 when I first got involved with them. They’ve got a robust correspondent business that offers cap Mkts devices like Back to back swaps for other smaller banks and their customers who want fixed rate loans.

The traditional model, even before the new refs and CFTC clearinghouse existence, was to have the ISDAs and terms match exactly to net zero exposition for the correspondent. (I did some hedge advisory work over time for these institutions so knowledgeable enough to be dangerous)

These cats at SouthState are trying to claim end use exception so they can keep the swaps off the clearinghouse and run big markups. But they do this by having the customer face SSB directly on the swap and then they execute economic hedges for themselves on the other side. (Singular or wholesale at times). I think they are both exposed to massive default risk of CRE borrowers at a bunch of much smaller depositories if they swaps are out of the money and the borrower defaults and also believe the ship sailed on them claiming end user exception for this mine of business. Thoughts?

They can hedge during term SOFR as an end user. Some regionals refuse to convert existing libor swaps to SOFR, there’s no fixed vs float in SOFR, lenders are pricing this in as well as credit.

This https://southstatecorrespondent.com/loan-hedging/

Make up to 2pts in a loan….that’s like 35-37bps of interest rate added to mid market on a 5yr loan! And wouldn’t happen if you could see the pricing on an exchange as all third party swaps are supposed to.

Less impactful now but it’s basically a way to widen spread and take advantage of lower information CRE borrowers (who tend to think they know everything because they bought a few buildings right and the fed helped out)

[lagerhead]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

We did the math and the increase was 1.15-1.6% per year on the 46%/4yr increase. This would be separate from that.

But it’s not quite that simple with accounting. Would have to go through timing of inventory, FIFO or LIFO accounting, other costs tied to labor, etc.

It would also hit the lower priced cars harder generally as the impact to every vehicles would be worse at a time when avg costs are inflated.

I don’t think it’s so easy to waive off. And there’s other costs as well.

More importantly once that becomes the ceiling productivity goes down from there as people frame their minds around 32hrs and guides individual slack in themselves. Some of that price is in retail as well.

Sure it’s more a lot but it’s probably more like $1-$1.5k per car and for those who live in urban sprawl growth sunbelt cities with not nearly enough infrastructure built and cars being a near requirement to function that extra (say) $1,250 or so on what was a $18-$22k vehicle 5-7yrs ago that goes for $30k now and with car financing above 7-8% from 0-4% that’s a big hammer on consumers who need cars at the lower economic spectrum.

Can it come from shareholders? Maybe but it’s always easy to look in other peoples pockets. The shareholders who one auto stocks individually or in mutual funds are the same boomers looking for those dividend checks for their retirement.

None of this is ever as simple as it’s framed. Hence the bars in the dead prez song he!! Yeah:

Every job I ever had I had to get on the first day
I find out how to pimp on the system
Two steps ahead of the manager
Getting over on the regular tax free money out of the register
And when I'm working late nights stockin' boxes I'm creepin' their merchandise
And don't put me on dishes I'm dropping them bitches
And taking all day long to mop the kitchen turd
We ain't getting paid commission, minimum wage, modern day slave conditions
Got me flippin' burgers with no power
Can't even buy one off what I make in an hour
I'm not the one to kiss ass for the top position
I take mine off the top like a politician
Where I'm from doing dirt is a part of living
I got mouths to feed I gots to get it

Either way even the Union knew it was a throwaway ask which I pointed out early on in this.

Need to model OT pay kicking in at 32 hours vs 40 as well.

You’re just energy right, don’t traffic in ag or livestock commodities correct? Looking for technical reasons that chicken dropped so much over beef other than simply a supply spike due to the again flu a year or two ago reducing chicken inventories.

Previous energy trading. Now work in IRD and SOFR.

Got it.

Have been having this debate with friends. I’m close to a bank called SouthState, maybe $50Bn in assets now but helped them through a number of their acquisitions as they were $3.5Bn in assets in 2011 when I first got involved with them. They’ve got a robust correspondent business that offers cap Mkts devices like Back to back swaps for other smaller banks and their customers who want fixed rate loans.

The traditional model, even before the new refs and CFTC clearinghouse existence, was to have the ISDAs and terms match exactly to net zero exposition for the correspondent. (I did some hedge advisory work over time for these institutions so knowledgeable enough to be dangerous)

These cats at SouthState are trying to claim end use exception so they can keep the swaps off the clearinghouse and run big markups. But they do this by having the customer face SSB directly on the swap and then they execute economic hedges for themselves on the other side. (Singular or wholesale at times). I think they are both exposed to massive default risk of CRE borrowers at a bunch of much smaller depositories if they swaps are out of the money and the borrower defaults and also believe the ship sailed on them claiming end user exception for this mine of business. Thoughts?

They can hedge during term SOFR as an end user. Some regionals refuse to convert existing libor swaps to SOFR, there’s no fixed vs float in SOFR, lenders are pricing this in as well as credit.

I mean on newly originated loans. Borrower comes in and requests fixed rate. Bank doesnt want to offer fixed and have the AL mismatch of floating liabilities (deposits) so they offer fixed rate but it’s a floating rate loan with a back to back rate swap to fix it for the term. The small banks cant even face the street it’s gotten so expensive the large dealers won’t even talk about approving a new counterparty unless there min $100k in annual revs expected so they vast majority of community banks have to go through intermediaries like larger banks or broker dealers and to offer this to their customers. Hence SSBs role. While they are exposed (and the entire equity research and investing universe doesn’t have any clue of the theoretical and unique risk they take-since the swaps put in the last few years would have to move the other way and right now that’s not the case) which allows them to claim end user (and not have the swaps run through transparently so the markups are ridiculous-like many multiples a fair value of CVA would be) it sure seems like the CFTC could slam them anytime they want to get off their Crytpo kick as they aren’t the actual end user.

The CFTC has not mandated any of this it’s being driven by “best practice” guidance by the ARRC. Big banks are following the guidance and we’re looking at alternatives AMERIBOR and BSBY neither of which have gotten traction. Bloomberg has a survey out asking the dealers for their thoughts on cessation of that benchmark index. CME owns the rights to term SOFR, again none of this is mandated by the CFTC. Given what happened in LIBOR the dealers are toeing the line. Know why? They are adding a spread to the rate, 35/37 over 5 years is cheap now. Banks aren’t going to eat the risk borrowers are.

[Farfromgeneva]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

We did the math and the increase was 1.15-1.6% per year on the 46%/4yr increase. This would be separate from that.

But it’s not quite that simple with accounting. Would have to go through timing of inventory, FIFO or LIFO accounting, other costs tied to labor, etc.

It would also hit the lower priced cars harder generally as the impact to every vehicles would be worse at a time when avg costs are inflated.

I don’t think it’s so easy to waive off. And there’s other costs as well.

More importantly once that becomes the ceiling productivity goes down from there as people frame their minds around 32hrs and guides individual slack in themselves. Some of that price is in retail as well.

Sure it’s more a lot but it’s probably more like $1-$1.5k per car and for those who live in urban sprawl growth sunbelt cities with not nearly enough infrastructure built and cars being a near requirement to function that extra (say) $1,250 or so on what was a $18-$22k vehicle 5-7yrs ago that goes for $30k now and with car financing above 7-8% from 0-4% that’s a big hammer on consumers who need cars at the lower economic spectrum.

Can it come from shareholders? Maybe but it’s always easy to look in other peoples pockets. The shareholders who one auto stocks individually or in mutual funds are the same boomers looking for those dividend checks for their retirement.

None of this is ever as simple as it’s framed. Hence the bars in the dead prez song he!! Yeah:

Every job I ever had I had to get on the first day
I find out how to pimp on the system
Two steps ahead of the manager
Getting over on the regular tax free money out of the register
And when I'm working late nights stockin' boxes I'm creepin' their merchandise
And don't put me on dishes I'm dropping them bitches
And taking all day long to mop the kitchen turd
We ain't getting paid commission, minimum wage, modern day slave conditions
Got me flippin' burgers with no power
Can't even buy one off what I make in an hour
I'm not the one to kiss ass for the top position
I take mine off the top like a politician
Where I'm from doing dirt is a part of living
I got mouths to feed I gots to get it

Either way even the Union knew it was a throwaway ask which I pointed out early on in this.

Need to model OT pay kicking in at 32 hours vs 40 as well.

You’re just energy right, don’t traffic in ag or livestock commodities correct? Looking for technical reasons that chicken dropped so much over beef other than simply a supply spike due to the again flu a year or two ago reducing chicken inventories.

Previous energy trading. Now work in IRD and SOFR.

Got it.

Have been having this debate with friends. I’m close to a bank called SouthState, maybe $50Bn in assets now but helped them through a number of their acquisitions as they were $3.5Bn in assets in 2011 when I first got involved with them. They’ve got a robust correspondent business that offers cap Mkts devices like Back to back swaps for other smaller banks and their customers who want fixed rate loans.

The traditional model, even before the new refs and CFTC clearinghouse existence, was to have the ISDAs and terms match exactly to net zero exposition for the correspondent. (I did some hedge advisory work over time for these institutions so knowledgeable enough to be dangerous)

These cats at SouthState are trying to claim end use exception so they can keep the swaps off the clearinghouse and run big markups. But they do this by having the customer face SSB directly on the swap and then they execute economic hedges for themselves on the other side. (Singular or wholesale at times). I think they are both exposed to massive default risk of CRE borrowers at a bunch of much smaller depositories if they swaps are out of the money and the borrower defaults and also believe the ship sailed on them claiming end user exception for this mine of business. Thoughts?

They can hedge during term SOFR as an end user. Some regionals refuse to convert existing libor swaps to SOFR, there’s no fixed vs float in SOFR, lenders are pricing this in as well as credit.

I mean on newly originated loans. Borrower comes in and requests fixed rate. Bank doesnt want to offer fixed and have the AL mismatch of floating liabilities (deposits) so they offer fixed rate but it’s a floating rate loan with a back to back rate swap to fix it for the term. The small banks cant even face the street it’s gotten so expensive the large dealers won’t even talk about approving a new counterparty unless there min $100k in annual revs expected so they vast majority of community banks have to go through intermediaries like larger banks or broker dealers and to offer this to their customers. Hence SSBs role. While they are exposed (and the entire equity research and investing universe doesn’t have any clue of the theoretical and unique risk they take-since the swaps put in the last few years would have to move the other way and right now that’s not the case) which allows them to claim end user (and not have the swaps run through transparently so the markups are ridiculous-like many multiples a fair value of CVA would be) it sure seems like the CFTC could slam them anytime they want to get off their Crytpo kick as they aren’t the actual end user.

The CFTC has not mandated any of this it’s being driven by “best practice” guidance by the ARRC. Big banks are following the guidance and we’re looking at alternatives AMERIBOR and BSBY neither of which have gotten traction. Bloomberg has a survey out asking the dealers for their thoughts on cessation of that benchmark index. CME owns the rights to term SOFR, again none of this is mandated by the CFTC. Given what happened in LIBOR the dealers are toeing the line. Know why? They are adding a spread to the rate, 35/37 over 5 years is cheap now. Banks aren’t going to eat the risk borrowers are.

When truist with their $600Bn in assets does a customer swap they get a plus or tick. That’s from the head of derivative trading there. 1.5-3.1bps over mid market. He’s been told effectively that he needs his P&L to be in a corridor, make enough as expected but don’t make too much and have any on the operations. (They may all their cap Mkts professionals store their cell phone in lockers before they start work now as well). The spread isn’t risk if you’re neutral on risk. It’s cost of renting the balance sheet to effect the transaction.

SOFR is embedded now. As I suggested it would be. You want to keep fighting that but when the Barclays Vice Chairman of Financial Services (a Hobart alum and buddy named Craig Stine) tells me differently I feel confident in the direction these products are heading.

But that wasn’t anything having to do with what I was talking about. I’m taking market activities and you’re talking product. another client issued a week ago an ABS deal w Citi as UW backed by life insurance premium finance loans (esoteric thinner market). Nobody anywhere discussed anything but SOFR in the process. AAAs (all tranches, these had a 90% detach or advance rate) priced at….SOFR + 195.

For anyone else curious about this it all came out of the financial crisis. Dealers were writing unhedged and often custom rate and credit derivative contracts, swaps with massive fees (exchanging various risk profiles for a fee) that we’re taking pounds of flesh and not transparent. Subsequently, largely in order for regulators to be able to follow and evaluate total risk (no one had any idea how much of various exposures Goldman or Aig had and Value at Risk models suck). So they said “ok unless you’re an “end user” like a chicken producer hedging corn feed costs or a bank managing your own direct interest rate risk then you’re derivative had to be written to new standards and cleared through an exchange. Part of a massive package of rules to create more transparency in financial products.

https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/file ... _final.pdf

Final Rule on End-User Exception to the Clearing Requirement for Swaps
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission) is considering a final rule that implements an exception to the clearing requirement for non-financial entities and small financial institutions that use swaps to hedge or mitigate commercial risk.
Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act)
Section 723 of the Dodd-Frank Act amended the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) by adding Section 2(h)(1), which provides that “it shall be unlawful for any person to engage in a swap unless that person submits such swap for clearing to a derivatives clearing organization that is registered under [the CEA] or a derivatives clearing organization that is exempt from registration under [the CEA] if the swap is required to be cleared.” The Dodd- Frank Act also added Section 2(h)(7) to the CEA, which provides that the clearing requirement of Section 2(h)(1) shall not apply to a swap if one of the counterparties to the swap: “(i) is not a financial entity; (ii) is using swaps to hedge or mitigate commercial risk; and (iii) notifies the Commission, in a manner set forth by the Commission, how it generally meets its financial obligations associated with entering into non-cleared swaps.” The exception provided in Section 2(h)(7) is commonly referred to as the “end-user exception.”
Notification to the Commission
To implement the notification requirement, the final rule requires the reporting counterparty to report to a swap data repository (SDR) (or if no SDR is available, to the Commission) the following information for each swap for which the end-user exception is elected: (1) notice of the election of the exception and (2) the identity of the electing counterparty (i.e., the counterparty eligible to elect the end-user exception) to the swap.
Additional information required to be reported under the rule may be provided either in an annual filing by the electing counterparty or on a swap-by-swap basis by the reporting counterparty. This information includes: (1) whether the electing counterparty is a financial entity electing the exception on behalf of an affiliate or as a small financial institution; (2) whether the swap for which the exception is being elected is used to hedge or mitigate commercial risk; (3) information regarding how the electing counterparty generally meets its financial obligations associated with entering into non-cleared swaps; and (4) if the electing counterparty is an “SEC Filer,” whether its board of directors has approved generally the decision to enter into swaps that are exempt from the clearing and trading requirements.
Hedging or Mitigating Commercial Risk
The final rule establishes criteria for determining whether a swap is “hedging or mitigating commercial risk” and therefore eligible for the end-user exception. The criteria set out in the rule are virtually the same as the criteria used in the definition of “major swap participant” recently adopted by the Commission.
Exemption for Small Financial Institutions
Commodity Futures Trading Commission ♦ Office of Public Affairs ♦ 202-418-5080

Section 2(h)(7)(C)(ii) of the CEA directs the Commission to consider whether to exempt small banks, savings associations, farm credit system institutions, and credit unions from the definition of “financial entity” used in the end-user exception, particularly those with total assets of $10 billion or less.
The final rule exempts banks, savings associations, farm credit system institutions, and credit unions with total assets of $10 billion or less from the definition of “financial entity,” making such “small financial institutions” eligible for the end-user exception.

[lagerhead]

The 32-hour-workweek idea has energized UAW members, many of whom say they have been logging a lot of overtime in the past few years to meet strong vehicle demand, while their white-collar counterparts worked from home. On the picket lines and at rallies, some UAW members have held signs supporting the proposal.

The companies have said granting workers a paid personal day each week would swell their labor costs to unsustainable levels. Automakers would need to hire thousands more workers to cover gaps in their schedules, they said. One company pegged the additional cost at roughly $1.5 billion a year.

Sounds like a freakish amount...until you do the math. How many cars did GM sell last year? In 2022, they sold 2.27 Million vehicles.

So that $1.5B is just $660 per vehicle, yeah? And their average price per vehicle is $51K. Sooooooo...... a nothing burger price increase that's less than inflation covers this. 1 percent increase in the cost of the car at retail gives the union their ask.

Not saying they should do it....just saying that GM is leaving out the rest of the math on that $1.5 billion out on purpose. Folks don't understand how big these companies are.

And please, check my math. Not my strong suit.

We did the math and the increase was 1.15-1.6% per year on the 46%/4yr increase. This would be separate from that.

But it’s not quite that simple with accounting. Would have to go through timing of inventory, FIFO or LIFO accounting, other costs tied to labor, etc.

It would also hit the lower priced cars harder generally as the impact to every vehicles would be worse at a time when avg costs are inflated.

I don’t think it’s so easy to waive off. And there’s other costs as well.

More importantly once that becomes the ceiling productivity goes down from there as people frame their minds around 32hrs and guides individual slack in themselves. Some of that price is in retail as well.

Sure it’s more a lot but it’s probably more like $1-$1.5k per car and for those who live in urban sprawl growth sunbelt cities with not nearly enough infrastructure built and cars being a near requirement to function that extra (say) $1,250 or so on what was a $18-$22k vehicle 5-7yrs ago that goes for $30k now and with car financing above 7-8% from 0-4% that’s a big hammer on consumers who need cars at the lower economic spectrum.

Can it come from shareholders? Maybe but it’s always easy to look in other peoples pockets. The shareholders who one auto stocks individually or in mutual funds are the same boomers looking for those dividend checks for their retirement.

None of this is ever as simple as it’s framed. Hence the bars in the dead prez song he!! Yeah:

Every job I ever had I had to get on the first day
I find out how to pimp on the system
Two steps ahead of the manager
Getting over on the regular tax free money out of the register
And when I'm working late nights stockin' boxes I'm creepin' their merchandise
And don't put me on dishes I'm dropping them bitches
And taking all day long to mop the kitchen turd
We ain't getting paid commission, minimum wage, modern day slave conditions
Got me flippin' burgers with no power
Can't even buy one off what I make in an hour
I'm not the one to kiss ass for the top position
I take mine off the top like a politician
Where I'm from doing dirt is a part of living
I got mouths to feed I gots to get it

Either way even the Union knew it was a throwaway ask which I pointed out early on in this.

Need to model OT pay kicking in at 32 hours vs 40 as well.

You’re just energy right, don’t traffic in ag or livestock commodities correct? Looking for technical reasons that chicken dropped so much over beef other than simply a supply spike due to the again flu a year or two ago reducing chicken inventories.

Previous energy trading. Now work in IRD and SOFR.

Got it.

Have been having this debate with friends. I’m close to a bank called SouthState, maybe $50Bn in assets now but helped them through a number of their acquisitions as they were $3.5Bn in assets in 2011 when I first got involved with them. They’ve got a robust correspondent business that offers cap Mkts devices like Back to back swaps for other smaller banks and their customers who want fixed rate loans.

The traditional model, even before the new refs and CFTC clearinghouse existence, was to have the ISDAs and terms match exactly to net zero exposition for the correspondent. (I did some hedge advisory work over time for these institutions so knowledgeable enough to be dangerous)

These cats at SouthState are trying to claim end use exception so they can keep the swaps off the clearinghouse and run big markups. But they do this by having the customer face SSB directly on the swap and then they execute economic hedges for themselves on the other side. (Singular or wholesale at times). I think they are both exposed to massive default risk of CRE borrowers at a bunch of much smaller depositories if they swaps are out of the money and the borrower defaults and also believe the ship sailed on them claiming end user exception for this mine of business. Thoughts?

They can hedge during term SOFR as an end user. Some regionals refuse to convert existing libor swaps to SOFR, there’s no fixed vs float in SOFR, lenders are pricing this in as well as credit.

I mean on newly originated loans. Borrower comes in and requests fixed rate. Bank doesnt want to offer fixed and have the AL mismatch of floating liabilities (deposits) so they offer fixed rate but it’s a floating rate loan with a back to back rate swap to fix it for the term. The small banks cant even face the street it’s gotten so expensive the large dealers won’t even talk about approving a new counterparty unless there min $100k in annual revs expected so they vast majority of community banks have to go through intermediaries like larger banks or broker dealers and to offer this to their customers. Hence SSBs role. While they are exposed (and the entire equity research and investing universe doesn’t have any clue of the theoretical and unique risk they take-since the swaps put in the last few years would have to move the other way and right now that’s not the case) which allows them to claim end user (and not have the swaps run through transparently so the markups are ridiculous-like many multiples a fair value of CVA would be) it sure seems like the CFTC could slam them anytime they want to get off their Crytpo kick as they aren’t the actual end user.

The CFTC has not mandated any of this it’s being driven by “best practice” guidance by the ARRC. Big banks are following the guidance and we’re looking at alternatives AMERIBOR and BSBY neither of which have gotten traction. Bloomberg has a survey out asking the dealers for their thoughts on cessation of that benchmark index. CME owns the rights to term SOFR, again none of this is mandated by the CFTC. Given what happened in LIBOR the dealers are toeing the line. Know why? They are adding a spread to the rate, 35/37 over 5 years is cheap now. Banks aren’t going to eat the risk borrowers are.

When truist with their $600Bn in assets does a customer swap they get a plus or tick. That’s from the head of derivative trading there. 1.5-3.1bps over mid market. He’s been told effectively that he needs his P&L to be in a corridor, make enough as expected but don’t make too much and have any on the operations. (They may all their cap Mkts professionals store their cell phone in lockers before they start work now as well). The spread isn’t risk if you’re neutral on risk. It’s cost of renting the balance sheet to effect the transaction.

SOFR is embedded now. As I suggested it would be. You want to keep fighting that but when the Barclays Vice Chairman of Financial Services (a Hobart alum and buddy named Craig Stine) tells me differently I feel confident in the direction these products are heading.

But that wasn’t anything having to do with what I was talking about. I’m taking market activities and you’re talking product. another client issued a week ago an ABS deal w Citi as UW backed by life insurance premium finance loans (esoteric thinner market). Nobody anywhere discussed anything but SOFR in the process. AAAs (all tranches, these had a 90% detach or advance rate) priced at….SOFR + 195.

For anyone else curious about this it all came out of the financial crisis. Dealers were writing unhedged and often custom rate and credit derivative contracts, swaps with massive fees (exchanging various risk profiles for a fee) that we’re taking pounds of flesh and not transparent. Subsequently, largely in order for regulators to be able to follow and evaluate total risk (no one had any idea how much of various exposures Goldman or Aig had and Value at Risk models suck). So they said “ok unless you’re an “end user” like a chicken producer hedging corn feed costs or a bank managing your own direct interest rate risk then you’re derivative had to be written to new standards and cleared through an exchange. Part of a massive package of rules to create more transparency in financial products.

https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/file ... _final.pdf

Final Rule on End-User Exception to the Clearing Requirement for Swaps
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission) is considering a final rule that implements an exception to the clearing requirement for non-financial entities and small financial institutions that use swaps to hedge or mitigate commercial risk.
Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act)
Section 723 of the Dodd-Frank Act amended the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) by adding Section 2(h)(1), which provides that “it shall be unlawful for any person to engage in a swap unless that person submits such swap for clearing to a derivatives clearing organization that is registered under [the CEA] or a derivatives clearing organization that is exempt from registration under [the CEA] if the swap is required to be cleared.” The Dodd- Frank Act also added Section 2(h)(7) to the CEA, which provides that the clearing requirement of Section 2(h)(1) shall not apply to a swap if one of the counterparties to the swap: “(i) is not a financial entity; (ii) is using swaps to hedge or mitigate commercial risk; and (iii) notifies the Commission, in a manner set forth by the Commission, how it generally meets its financial obligations associated with entering into non-cleared swaps.” The exception provided in Section 2(h)(7) is commonly referred to as the “end-user exception.”
Notification to the Commission
To implement the notification requirement, the final rule requires the reporting counterparty to report to a swap data repository (SDR) (or if no SDR is available, to the Commission) the following information for each swap for which the end-user exception is elected: (1) notice of the election of the exception and (2) the identity of the electing counterparty (i.e., the counterparty eligible to elect the end-user exception) to the swap.
Additional information required to be reported under the rule may be provided either in an annual filing by the electing counterparty or on a swap-by-swap basis by the reporting counterparty. This information includes: (1) whether the electing counterparty is a financial entity electing the exception on behalf of an affiliate or as a small financial institution; (2) whether the swap for which the exception is being elected is used to hedge or mitigate commercial risk; (3) information regarding how the electing counterparty generally meets its financial obligations associated with entering into non-cleared swaps; and (4) if the electing counterparty is an “SEC Filer,” whether its board of directors has approved generally the decision to enter into swaps that are exempt from the clearing and trading requirements.
Hedging or Mitigating Commercial Risk
The final rule establishes criteria for determining whether a swap is “hedging or mitigating commercial risk” and therefore eligible for the end-user exception. The criteria set out in the rule are virtually the same as the criteria used in the definition of “major swap participant” recently adopted by the Commission.
Exemption for Small Financial Institutions
Commodity Futures Trading Commission ♦ Office of Public Affairs ♦ 202-418-5080

Section 2(h)(7)(C)(ii) of the CEA directs the Commission to consider whether to exempt small banks, savings associations, farm credit system institutions, and credit unions from the definition of “financial entity” used in the end-user exception, particularly those with total assets of $10 billion or less.
The final rule exempts banks, savings associations, farm credit system institutions, and credit unions with total assets of $10 billion or less from the definition of “financial entity,” making such “small financial institutions” eligible for the end-user exception.

I’m not fighting it, don’t care, will broker whatever. Added regulations and reporting requirements let us increase brokerage. My point is all these invisible costs are passed along.

[youthathletics]

Good as place as any:
Building automation giant Johnson Controls hit by ransomware attack

https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/s ... re-attack/

BleepingComputer has been told that the ransom note links to a negotiation chat where the ransomware gang demands $51 million to provide a decryptor and to delete stolen data.



https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/28/politics ... index.html

[CU88a]

r's tank their own bill, now they are at risk of losing leverage on the D's (avoiding a shutdown)

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/artic ... o-shutdown

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Hardline Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives on Friday rejected a bill proposed by their leader to temporarily fund the government, making it all but certain that federal agencies will partially shut down beginning on Sunday.

[Kismet]

r's tank their own bill, now they are at risk of losing leverage on the D's (avoiding a shutdown)

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/artic ... o-shutdown

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Hardline Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives on Friday rejected a bill proposed by their leader to temporarily fund the government, making it all but certain that federal agencies will partially shut down beginning on Sunday.

No Einsteins or even Machiavellis in this crowd.