2019 Bracketology Thread

[MusaCyanocitta]

...

While my kids would remark that, in fact, I am the most famous IC grad, alas my talents lie in the direction of software engineering, not DJ-ing.

I will rest easier tonight knowing that a Hopkins team that finished 8-7 is in while Cornell team that finished 10-5 is out. I guess Hopkins just lost a greater number of important games than the Big Red did.

Perhaps if Cornell had fans who were more fun, their team would be invited to more events.

[Hawkeye]

Cornell

Could you give some insight on why your model thinks Cornell's at-large chances are so low? It's the one thing that your model seems to have very different than most.

Great question. It's 2 parts really.

First of all, they play Yale, and the Lax-ELO ratings suggest that Yale wins that game 71% of the time. Since my model looks at each team's projected resume at the end of the year, 71% of the simulations have Cornell with a loss to the Bulldogs and the resulting RPI implications of that. It's worth noting that the projections have Cornell in 76% of the time if they beat Yale. So it's not that it's down on Cornell's chances of getting in; it's more than it's not expecting them to beat Yale and it's down on Cornell's chances assuming they lose that game.

Kudos to you and your model for nailing this one early on!

[reLAX]

It would have been polite for Admin to clearly state...

It would have been polite for laxfan131 to clearly state that, as a long-suffering Big Red fan, he 100% acknowledges that there is no way in hell that a 5 loss Cornell team earns a selection over a 7 loss Johns Hopkins team.

It would have been polite for ICGrad to note that, according to laxbytes, JHU is also in and it is Syracuse that is out. Not my opinion, the opinion of laxbytes. I wonder if ICGrad is the most famous IC grad, the talented DJ "The Greaseman."

While my kids would remark that, in fact, I am the most famous IC grad, alas my talents lie in the direction of software engineering, not DJ-ing.

I will rest easier tonight knowing that a Hopkins team that finished 8-7 is in while Cornell team that finished 10-5 is out. I guess Hopkins just lost a greater number of important games than the Big Red did.

Perfectly said. Get credit for simply showing up at the game.

[xxxxxxx]

It's not as complicated as one would think. The RPI is what matters and as you can see Hopkins was number 11 and Cornell 12, that was the cut off. I had a D1 coach tell me that he doesn't remember a team lower than 13 on the RPI ever getting an at large bid.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... crosse-rpi

[HopFan16]

It's not as complicated as one would think. The RPI is what matters and as you can see Hopkins was number 11 and Cornell 12, that was the cut off. I had a D1 coach tell me that he doesn't remember a team lower than 13 on the RPI ever getting an at large bid.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... crosse-rpi

That's out of date. Hopkins was #8 in RPI.

[laxreference]

It's not as complicated as one would think. The RPI is what matters and as you can see Hopkins was number 11 and Cornell 12, that was the cut off. I had a D1 coach tell me that he doesn't remember a team lower than 13 on the RPI ever getting an at large bid.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... crosse-rpi

That's out of date. Hopkins was #8 in RPI.

Here is the current RPI and NCAA-approved SOS.

[admin]

LaxRef, I so want to see their formulas. That's not the RPI that we get.

[Matnum PI]

"The Party of the Year... and You Weren't Invited."

[laxreference]

LaxRef, I so want to see their formulas. That's not the RPI that we get.

Yeah, my actual numbers have been a bit off, but the ordering has been accurate by and large. I even accounted for the Hampton thing. I have tried to see if I can figure out what the discrepancy is, but I have had no luck so far. Really strange.

[xxxxxxx]

It's not as complicated as one would think. The RPI is what matters and as you can see Hopkins was number 11 and Cornell 12, that was the cut off. I had a D1 coach tell me that he doesn't remember a team lower than 13 on the RPI ever getting an at large bid.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... crosse-rpi

That's out of date. Hopkins was #8 in RPI.

Here is the current RPI and NCAA-approved SOS.

Updated RPI same result 9 ND 10 Cuse 11 MD cut off here with 12 Cornell 13 Denver 14 OSU. The RPI is the ranking that matters.

[ICGrad]

LaxRef, I so want to see their formulas. That's not the RPI that we get.

So I'm confused. I thought RPI was a cut-and-dried, simple formula.

[admin]

Yeah, my actual numbers have been a bit off, but the ordering has been accurate by and large. I even accounted for the Hampton thing. I have tried to see if I can figure out what the discrepancy is, but I have had no luck so far. Really strange.

ours have been off, too, but... they're not off. I think other RPIs have "evolved"...

[ABV 8.3%]

Yeah, my actual numbers have been a bit off, but the ordering has been accurate by and large. I even accounted for the Hampton thing. I have tried to see if I can figure out what the discrepancy is, but I have had no luck so far. Really strange.

ours have been off, too, but... they're not off. I think other RPIs have "evolved"...

Are you guys saying that Hampton games count in the RPI? (crazy if it does ) No wonder why the SoCon takes a RPI hit.

[laxreference]

The formula is very simple. The 25% vs 50% vs 25% is well understood. It's the inputs for each team that Admin was referencing I think. For some reason, various outlets tend to have different results. I have no earthly idea why. I have been trying to figure it out since I started putting up my RPI stuff.

To be claer, the ordering of the teams in the final RPI tends to be the same, so it's not likely we are all putting out different lists, but you'd think the specific underlying inputs would be the same as well, which doesn't seem to be the case.

And no, Hampton does not count.

[admin]

IC, agreed. That's why I want to see their formulas. Everyone's for that matter. It's simple until... you change 25-50-25 to 50-25-25 or whatever. People do it all the time, give it a new name, and then say, I created a Ranking System! Which i find funny but not bothersome. What I do find bothersome is when the RPI formula is changed and this isn't clearly expressed. One of the things people liked about RPI (originally) was that it was transparent. Today, I don't think this is the case. and, if it's not transparent, why isn't it?...

[admin]

Are you guys saying that Hampton games count in the RPI? (crazy if it does ) No wonder why the SoCon takes a RPI hit.

Only their D1 games count and they're not in a Conference.

[admin]

Laxref, i question who is using the 25-50-25 and nothing else.

[admin]

laxref, this is what I mean. It's RPI but...

DIVISION I SELECTION CRITERIA:
The committee will utilize the following criteria to select and seed teams:
• Strength of schedule index.
• Results of the RPI.
- Record against ranked teams 1-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-20; 21+
- Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins)
- Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
• Head-to-head competition:
- Results versus common opponents.
- Significant wins and losses (wins against teams ranked higher in the RPI and losses against teams ranked lower in the RPI).
- Locations of contests.
• Input from the regional advisory committee (comprised of lacrosse coashes from all AQ conferences).

[ABV 8.3%]

Are you guys saying that Hampton games count in the RPI? (crazy if it does ) No wonder why the SoCon takes a RPI hit.

Only their D1 games count and they're not in a Conference.

I did mention the Furman and VMI hits that the other SoCon teams apparently take. Just to clarify, High Point's RPI was affected by the opponents opponents record part of the RPI because two of it's conference teams played Hampton ? Interesting.

Obviously, whatever league NJIT is in took a hit too. Hampton played only 3 Div. I games. And the "we'll play the new guys" mentality of other high RPI teams (UVA, DUKE, UNC, Maryland, G-town, Navy, Hopkins, Loyola, Richmond..........they going to be on Hampton's schedule and RPI ding any time soon? )

[Homer]

The formula is very simple. The 25% vs 50% vs 25% is well understood. It's the inputs for each team that Admin was referencing I think. For some reason, various outlets tend to have different results. I have no earthly idea why. I have been trying to figure it out since I started putting up my RPI stuff.

To be claer, the ordering of the teams in the final RPI tends to be the same, so it's not likely we are all putting out different lists, but you'd think the specific underlying inputs would be the same as well, which doesn't seem to be the case.

And no, Hampton does not count.

I know you're way deeper into the weeds on this stuff than I'll ever be, so maybe what I'm going to say is already obvious. But the one thing that immediately comes to mind that'd produce small differences like that is that IIRC you're supposed to drop an opponent's game(s) against the team you're rating from the calculation. In other words, if you're computing Hopkins' RPI you enter Towson as 10-4 not 11-4, UNC as 8-6 not 8-7, Maryland as 11-2 not 11-4, and so on. (And the same for opponents' opponents, so e.g. Georgetown as a Towson opponent goes in as 13-3 not 13-4.)

If some sites are doing that correctly* and others aren't, that'd account for minor discrepancies in input of the kind you're describing.


* It's also possible I have it backward and you AREN'T supposed to do that but some people do. But I'm pretty sure the way I have it here is the right one.