2019 Bracketology Thread

[Mr3Putt]

Ok hypothetical. What if GT wins the Big East ?

[Hawkeye]

Ok hypothetical. What if GT wins the Big East ?

They make the tournament, and Denver is out.

Vice versa if Denver wins.

America East
Big East
Colonial
MAAC
NEC
SoCon
Patriot League

Championships all look like play in/playoff games

[Mr3Putt]

Yes , but w a W ... GT upgrades a W!

[Hawkeye]

Yes , but w a W ... GT upgrades a W!

With regards to... Towson? Is that the hypothetical that we're talking about?

[Hawkeye]

Assuming that Yale holds on, I think it's all sorted out now folks. There are 10 teams that are in the field, and 7 AQs to decide. No one on the wrong side of the bubble has a chance to further improve their resume to change things in that picture.

In as at-larges:
Virginia
Duke
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Loyola
Maryland (last team in... )

Winner AQ/loser at-large
Big Ten: Johns Hopkins vs. Penn State
Ivy League: Yale vs. Pennsylvania

The 7 spots remaining go to the winners of these games:
America East: UMBC vs. Vermont
Big East: Georgetown @ Denver
Colonial: Drexel vs. Towson
MAAC: Quinnipiac @ Marist
NEC: Robert Morris vs. Hobart
Patriot League: Army vs. Lehigh
SoCon: Richmond @ High Point

First four out:
Cornell
(Towson)
Ohio State
(Denver)


I will post a full update/report tomorrow morning if I have time. I think it's very straightforward, and there will be virtually no debate around the bubble this year. The Loyola loss cost Cornell an at-large spot and forced Towson into an AQ or bust.

[Farfromgeneva]

B. if they did, watch out Loyola. People forget this is a lacrosse focused site but Loyola’s lacrosse “dominance” of league as an affiliate member who doesn’t add to academics or navy did for Army is more of a problem for them. Conferences don’t like interlopers taking their spots.

Loyola is a full member of the Patriot League.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriot_L ... ll_members

My bad I thought they came in as lacrosse only a few years ago. Still bitter the league basically carved out a rule specifically designed to bounce us once they got Navy (it was literally written to only eject two schools from every men’s/women’s sport and we had won like 3/5 or 4/6 AQs so it felt petty and cheap).

[Hawkeye]

My bad I thought they came in as lacrosse only a few years ago. Still bitter the league basically carved out a rule specifically designed to bounce us once they got Navy (it was literally written to only eject two schools from every men’s/women’s sport and we had won like 3/5 or 4/6 AQs so it felt petty and cheap).

That was before my time following the sport, but I feel bad for Hobart. I will have to try to find some info about that. This was around 2004, wasn't it?

[Farfromgeneva]

Last year was 04. We nabbed at AL beating Army, Bucknell, Cornell and someone else who was good (and blew like an 8-9 goal lead to a strong OSU that year) lost to National runner up navy twice but he second one was a 9-8 burner in the PL final. Next year ended up In a very strong ECAC at the time that included Georgetown before Urick started pulling in IL preening ponies and lost his touch, Loyola’s PSU, UMass (06 runner up w a great goalie), Rutgers, St. John’s, Fairfield and us. Prior to formation of Big east which pushed PSU and Umass to colonial, St John’s and GTown to big east and got merged with the remaining GWLL which was insane and included OSU, Denver, air
Force to Hobart, Loyola, Fairfield. Talk about random disparate conference.

[Nyhoo]

Loyola is a top 30 team in the past 10 games.

[Cooter]

With UMd sitting at #11 in RPI, Hopkins is lacking a top 10 win. So Hopkins has 2 wins over #11 and a win over #17 UNC for quality wins. This to go with 6 losses, including a loss to #14 OSU.

I don't know that losing to Yale really hurt Cornell much. They just lost an opportunity of clinching a spot. Cornell has 2 top 10 wins over Notre Dame and Towson. Only 5 losses with none outside the top 10.

Maryland has wins over #5 Penn, #14 OSU, #16 Villanova, #17 UNC with only 4 losses none outside the top 10 RPIs.

Syracuse has wins over #4 Duke, #9 JHU, #12 Cornell, #15 Army, #17 UNC. They have only 4 losses but 1 is to #47 Colgate and they also lost to #17 UNC

Notre Dame has wins over #4 Duke, #10 Syracuse, #11 Maryland, #13 Denver, #17 UNC. They have 5 losses including #22 Richmond, #14 OSU, #12 Cornell.

It could well depend on how much they choose to look at the losses this time around.
Notre Dame can breath easy if the beat UVa, and Hopkins gets the AQ if they beat PSU, but otherwise I would be concerned if I were any of these 5 going into selection Sunday.

[Hail to the Victors]

Hopkins will be out unless they beat PSU, and OSU will be the game that does them in. OSU should have been 0-5 in conference this year.

[genghiskhanbluejay]

With UMd sitting at #11 in RPI, Hopkins is lacking a top 10 win. So Hopkins has 2 wins over #11 and a win over #17 UNC for quality wins. This to go with 6 losses, including a loss to #14 OSU.

I don't know that losing to Yale really hurt Cornell much. They just lost an opportunity of clinching a spot. Cornell has 2 top 10 wins over Notre Dame and Towson. Only 5 losses with none outside the top 10.

Maryland has wins over #5 Penn, #14 OSU, #16 Villanova, #17 UNC with only 4 losses none outside the top 10 RPIs.

Syracuse has wins over #4 Duke, #9 JHU, #12 Cornell, #15 Army, #17 UNC. They have only 4 losses but 1 is to #47 Colgate and they also lost to #17 UNC

Notre Dame has wins over #4 Duke, #10 Syracuse, #11 Maryland, #13 Denver, #17 UNC. They have 5 losses including #22 Richmond, #14 OSU, #12 Cornell.

It could well depend on how much they choose to look at the losses this time around.
Notre Dame can breath easy if the beat UVa, and Hopkins gets the AQ if they beat PSU, but otherwise I would be concerned if I were any of these 5 going into selection Sunday.

Cornell losing to Yale did hurt, it cost them a spot in the field.
On Sunday Cornell will have a lower RPI than both Hopkins and Maryland who will be above them for an at large spot,

Cornell has a 3% shot to get in according to the updated link,

https://lacrossereference.com/mens-d1-bracketology/

[laxreference]

Cornell losing to Yale did hurt, it cost them a spot in the field.
On Sunday Cornell will have a lower RPI than both Hopkins and Maryland who will be above them for an at large spot,

Cornell has a 3% shot to get in according to the updated link,

https://lacrossereference.com/mens-d1-bracketology/

Just wanted to point out that the 3% estimate was from before the Yale/Cornell game wrapped. So that 3% included the chance that they might beat Yale. With the loss, the model is even less bullish on Cornell's chances.

Now, here is the caveat: my model weights RPI extremely heavily in identifying which teams get in because by all accounts, it is the most important factor that the committee considers. But they do consider a range of factors and there is always the possibility that they weight RPI lower than my model does.

[CU88]

I have to say, this has been one heck of a season. So many teams competing for At Large slots on the last week has made for "Must See TV".
I for one love it.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

I have to say, this has been one heck of a season. So many teams competing for At Large slots on the last week has made for "Must See TV".
I for one love it.

Better than a lot of the first round games, in which some lowly AQs will get blown out (and some lowly at larges, like some recent DBA-JHU tilts).

[Hawkeye]

(Updated below)

[Hawkeye]

How I currently see the NCAA tournament field heading into the conference tournaments... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/pbmaqR8

Note: I have Towson and Denver listed in the at-large table approximately where I think they would each slot in, should they lose today.

For those who prefer to see a projected bracket visually:
https://imgur.com/a/Y6J7DZD

Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse)
Big Ten: 3 (Penn State, Johns Hopkins, Maryland)
Ivy League: 2 (Pennsylvania, Yale)
Patriot League: 2 (Loyola, Lehigh)

Whoever the last at-large is, they are likely to end up with a heck of a difficult matchup in the first round. I currently have Maryland drawing the short end of the stick and ending up with a (long) trip to Yale. The Ivy League game tomorrow will have a huge effect on this situation.

I currently have 5 teams as locks to host in the first round: Penn State, Virginia, Duke, and both Yale/Penn (regardless of outcome tomorrow). The differences between the teams in the hunt for the last 3 hosting spots are pretty close, and it will come down to how things play out today and tomorrow.

--

Regarding the play-in game:

The AEC champion is 99.9% locked into the play-in game. Quinnipiac takes the other spot if they win the MAAC today.

If Marist wins the MAAC, the race to avoid the other spot will be between the following teams (*if they win):
Drexel*
Hobart/RMU winner
Lehigh*
Marist

^ I would still lean toward Marist hosting it in this scenario, but it's not a lock.

[Mr3Putt]

Loyola has losses to Boston & Army ! That has to mean something

[runrussellrun]

Loyola doing their best to cause chaos.

If Loyola loses this game, the presumptive at-larges become:
4 ACC
PSU/JHU loser
Yale/Penn loser
Loyola
Maryland (probably)

Towson 100% becomes AQ or bust, and Cornell has to beat Yale tonight to stay in the conversation.

High Point has lost twice, winning 13 times for a .867 winning percentage. Beat both ACC teams they played....and yet have little to none shot of getting an at large if losing today? High Point is firmly in the #2 spot for Div. 1 winning percentage. But a .500 team (if they lose tonight, which they won't) that really beat no one besides Maryland, is considered worthy? ......... Am I really the only person that is bothered by this insanity? Rewarding LOSING to teams with good records?

Please explain why a team that beat Duke and UVA......and 11 other teams.........should NOT be getting an at large. RPI counting only WINS is the better method. Stop rewarding losing. No other sport, at the pro or college level.......does this.

[Hawkeye]

Am I really the only person that is bothered by this insanity?

No other sport, at the pro or college level.......does this.

Yes. You seem to be pretty much the only one.

Also, you clearly don't watch college basketball.