I didn’t see any case really strongly made in here and while this is a scotus thread the question posed or hypothesis was specific to whether it made sense or had net value over not doing it.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 02, 2023 11:47 amAs I said, M2 is irrelevant when the shock to the system is huge. Private decisions can't act sufficiently, are overwhelmed.Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sat Jul 01, 2023 4:52 pmIf M2 isn’t relevant because one is a temporary shock then it means the comparison doesn’t work. And I raised it because you argue that there’s a net positive economic impact to letting folks skate from their loan receivable contracts that didn’t have a shock/exogenous event. Effectively arguing having the govt absorb college costs is a net positive to the economy. I don’t see how that argument can be made without making all higher ed 100% public. Incongruous you be on both side of that.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 01, 2023 4:24 pmI may not have been clear. I don't hear folks saying, or at least not the same folks saying, that forgiveness of PPP loans was unfair as are saying that forgiveness of student debt is unfair.Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sat Jul 01, 2023 4:06 pmPPP was a terrible way to provide stimulus liquidity to the system. Running it through the banks was clearly a mistake. And I still believe govt spending has a weaker effect on M2 than private. And let’s not forget PPP was related to a (reasonable but) required shutdown of business.MDlaxfan76 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 01, 2023 3:45 pmHow do we feel about PPP?a fan wrote: ↑Sat Jul 01, 2023 3:34 pmYeah, thats a REALLY annoying worldview. "Contracts are for me, not for thee".Farfromgeneva wrote: ↑Sat Jul 01, 2023 12:39 pm ...... so Biden tosses one to the far left who think fairness means not honoring contracts.
Does it make a difference that there was a pandemic?
Was that money not only useful to keep employees employed and for their $ to recirculate?
Beneficial to the economy?
And if small businesses, why not students who studies show are delaying families, delaying home purchases, etc?
Or was all of it an error because not everyone benefited directly from each program?
I’m sure you’re not comparing pandemic “emergency” (like in 08) stimulus to people who took out loans fully aware of what they were agreeing to and living with the consequences. I don’t see the comparison or the reality of your last sentence. Used to need min 20% down and folks waited longer to buy homes I don’t think those things are rights. It’s a mistake to conflate homeownership with a right.
Was PPP necessary? Yikes, hard to know...we were definitely at a precipice.
Was it effectively administered? Well, in the luxury of not urgent hindsight, obviously not.
The fraud involved was off the charts!
But if one (not you) is to argue that PPP was reasonable, taking advantage of such, voting for such, themselves, and yet clearly not benefiting everyone the same...how can they reasonably argue that a decision to release the demographic power of family formation and home ownership this way is unfair?
The M2 argument, private versus public, is interesting but not actually relevant when there's an extreme shock to the system, including the government decisions made to address that shock...and no way to ensure that private response will be sufficient given the realities of dispersed incentives.
In the short term.
This of course is only discussing whether it's a sound idea with economic benefit (yup, releasing private investment and decision making) or simply a sop to gain votes. It can of course be both, but then not only about political benefit.
And then there's the accrual of power of the Courts through this newly created "major questions doctrine" that is being used to ignore any actual standing, any actual facts of damage, to simply step and replace the judgments of elected legislatures and POTUS.
In this instance, various states claimed standing that had zero basis, no plausible damage claim, and Missouri claimed standing because of a company they claimed would lose $44 million if the policy went through and they didn't get the service fees. And thus the state would lose tax revenue. Put aside that the company refused to claim damages themselves, refused to be a party to the suit, and subsequent analysis showed they'd actually make more money if they didn't have to service the loans anymore (it's been a money loser for them, apparently)...
But hey, this SCOTUS needs to step in because they have their own "feelings" that this might be "unfair"...yikes.
I don’t believe it’s an economic benefit net of all costs fully loaded with the effect of latency to see the impacts and stripping other considerations.
And again comparing PPP where we told them they couldn’t be open and the funds paid to keep employees (still need to certify retention of employees not for general funds though it’s fungible once received clearly) when they govt forced a shutdown. They haven’t stopped anyone from earning an income, even strictly speaking during Covid, so yes this is clearly throwing a bone for votes. Anyone who really believes it’s good policy on it’s own merit in isolation I can’t agree with here.
It IS relevant when such doesn't exist, or at least is a factor most of the time. It doesn't mean that government spending as no multiplier effect, just that when all else is equal, it just can be less than a comparable set of private decisions can be.
However, a social safety net and various strategic choices in a world in which are not alone may well be more effective through government as private decision making doesn't have the same individual incentives to achieve public good...moreover, those government spends provide a more stable environment in which private decision making can actually thrive. (We have a legislative and executive process to make those decisions.)
So, it ain't as simple as private = good, public = bad.
I think it's an entirely reasonable argument to make that many of the businesses which received loans that were forgiven were impacted directly by government public health mandates (albeit very few businesses were prevented from being open by the federal government, so when we say "government" we're muddying). But not all who were hurt received free money, and there was immense fraud among those who didn't deserve it.
But sure, this student loan forgiveness concept is designed to provide a benefit to a specific group of people (44 million voters...and their families). Can it be justified by long term economic benefit of encouraging more young people to have children sooner? Purchase houses and furnishings sooner?
Versus M2 arguments, maybe not but on its own, it's not as if it has no merit.
And yeah, there are those who would indeed argue to make public college education and technical school education free for all. Private schools would likely try to continue to differentiate and some would close or be acquired by others. Those who are able to maintain special brand status would continue.
I'd note that very few of those loans that were scheduled to be forgiven were for kids like my son, whose loan was not eligible for forgiveness. Most of them are with kids with Pell status or private technical schools set up to attract kids but which don't deliver solid jobs thereafter...and former students whose college path was interrupted by death in family, children, etc...some are 4 year school but with career paths that don't pay well, teachers, social workers, etc...but we need teachers and social workers...
Now, do I think the concept could have been even more targeted? sure. And are there better uses for that money? sure. More efficient usage? sure...
However, we then we get back to how our system is supposed to work. Congress passed a law granting discretion to Administration (Secretary of Education) to make a decision like this during an emergency (which is when the decision was made); SCOTUS is saying, "no, we can overrule the Administration, and we can over rule Congress' authority to legislate"...and they did so without any legitimate plaintiff with harm to be addressed...yikes, that ain't how it's supposed to work.
We want to vote for a different Congress, different President, because we disagree with how they're spending taxpayer money? THAT is how it's supposed to work.
BTW, how do we feel about those huge grants made to large corporate farms because they were hurt during the trade wars under Trump? Free money, mostly taken advantage of by the largest farming interests...
Social safety net case - no way. Not when considering other social safety nets that should be addressed first (unless buying votes)
As to legality it’s not clear this passed the smell test it wasn’t a nasty arbitraging of codified language over spirit and essence of the rule set intended - ir its pulling a fast one at best and dubious that it is being done this way vs a more open and transparent agenda so hard for me to get so upset in arms about scotus on this given the underlying behavior isn’t exactly ethical as to how it’s attempted to being executed.
If it’s helping families that’s incongruous with your original claim the benefit comes in part from faster or more household formation. Maybe we improve immigration and open the borders more than social engineering this way?
I didn’t see anything above making a compelling case that there’s actual ent value (net vs the cost which I don’t see you addressing and it’s hard to quantify but you know full well it’s massive and in ways we can’t even contemplate to the negative side of the g/l. As far as justifying it? I’m a smart guy and you are. We both could justify rape and murder if we wanted to do being able to make a case/justification sound plausible doesn’t pass any test for me. Would need a far more quantitative and second, their order considered modeling and forecasting wit various scenarios on the table for me to buy it being anything more than a cookie from the wish list being tossed to people who don’t actually care about the societal good and are being selfish. It’s on the rest of us to push back so as to maintain some palatable equilibrium.
As for Trump and farms? Of course it’s nonsense. A. I am making this case in isolation of what others do but yes that’s buying votes as well. B. That’s a very low benchmark when we’re inside a year from the primaries and; C. Please don’t forget I’m an extreme form of libertarian in many ways who would get rid of fdic insurance, mortgages interest deduction, fan/Fred, ag subsidies, trade barriers etc which you know so asking me how I feel about trumps farm giveaway, or even PPP, seems a bit redundant.