Transfer Portal 2024

[10stone5]

This year there are 112 players in the portal (as reported in Lacrosse Bucket) of which 28 are non-seniors (25%). Last year it was 176 players of which 83 were non-seniors (47%). That's a 36% drop in total number of players and a 66% drop in non-seniors in 1 year. Last year 39 players (22%) that were in the portal didn't transfer anywhere and of these 27 were seniors (69%). This year so far 32 players (29%) haven't transferred and 21 of them are seniors (66%). The inference is that far fewer players entered the portal this year and, while many more of them were seniors, there is about the same level of success in transferring.

Thanks for going through these numbers.
Its a lot of work.

I’ll send a note to Tanner, maybe he can start putting this data together as a normal part of his web site.

[wgdsr]

Time will tell if you're right about the long-term growth of the portal but you're already wildly wrong. This year there are 112 players in the portal (as reported in Lacrosse Bucket) of which 28 are non-seniors (25%). Last year it was 176 players of which 83 were non-seniors (47%). That's a 36% drop in total number of players and a 66% drop in non-seniors in 1 year. Last year 39 players (22%) that were in the portal didn't transfer anywhere and of these 27 were seniors (69%). This year so far 32 players (29%) haven't transferred and 21 of them are seniors (66%). The inference is that far fewer players entered the portal this year and, while many more of them were seniors, there is about the same level of success in transferring.

Not interested in the "star" player debate but as we get further away from an extra Covid year being available I just don't see "star" players trying to find a different place to play for their senior year when they've only got 4 years of eligibility.

football was up 5.5%, tho.

[DocBarrister]

Time will tell if you're right about the long-term growth of the portal but you're already wildly wrong. This year there are 112 players in the portal (as reported in Lacrosse Bucket) of which 28 are non-seniors (25%). Last year it was 176 players of which 83 were non-seniors (47%). That's a 36% drop in total number of players and a 66% drop in non-seniors in 1 year. Last year 39 players (22%) that were in the portal didn't transfer anywhere and of these 27 were seniors (69%). This year so far 32 players (29%) haven't transferred and 21 of them are seniors (66%). The inference is that far fewer players entered the portal this year and, while many more of them were seniors, there is about the same level of success in transferring.

Not interested in the "star" player debate but as we get further away from an extra Covid year being available I just don't see "star" players trying to find a different place to play for their senior year when they've only got 4 years of eligibility.

Covid crew getting through the system is slowing it down. The answer is generally in between. The portal will be a factor going on. The teams that learn how to navigate it correctly will flourish. Throwing around NIL money and stocking up on portal players is likely to be very inconsistent and potentially harmful to the long term stability. You have to find the balance. Its going to be interesting.

Yep, Covid “blip.” If other sports are a measure, the transfer portal will steadily grow over time. No reason to believe lacrosse is an exception to the general rule. It’s a good development, as the portal facilitates options for transferring students.

https://www.ncaa.org/news/2023/2/21/med ... nd-ii.aspx

DocBarrister

[coda]

Time will tell if you're right about the long-term growth of the portal but you're already wildly wrong. This year there are 112 players in the portal (as reported in Lacrosse Bucket) of which 28 are non-seniors (25%). Last year it was 176 players of which 83 were non-seniors (47%). That's a 36% drop in total number of players and a 66% drop in non-seniors in 1 year. Last year 39 players (22%) that were in the portal didn't transfer anywhere and of these 27 were seniors (69%). This year so far 32 players (29%) haven't transferred and 21 of them are seniors (66%). The inference is that far fewer players entered the portal this year and, while many more of them were seniors, there is about the same level of success in transferring.

Not interested in the "star" player debate but as we get further away from an extra Covid year being available I just don't see "star" players trying to find a different place to play for their senior year when they've only got 4 years of eligibility.

Covid crew getting through the system is slowing it down. The answer is generally in between. The portal will be a factor going on. The teams that learn how to navigate it correctly will flourish. Throwing around NIL money and stocking up on portal players is likely to be very inconsistent and potentially harmful to the long term stability. You have to find the balance. Its going to be interesting.

Yep, Covid “blip.” If other sports are a measure, the transfer portal will steadily grow over time. No reason to believe lacrosse is an exception to the general rule. It’s a good development, as the portal facilitates options for transferring students.

https://www.ncaa.org/news/2023/2/21/med ... nd-ii.aspx

DocBarrister

I am not sure what the general rule is in non-revenue sports. I am not sure anyone has done the work on that.

[nyjay]

Per Xanders/IL - Anthony Ghobriel to UVa. Nice addition for the Hoos.

[Formerhound]

I think the vast majority of underclass transfers are those kids that got recruited by a school, got there, saw they weren’t going to play now (or in the near future) and then decided to go to a lesser lax program. Saw it at Loyola last year. 4 star goalie left due to Staudt being a year ahead of him and no real opportunity to play until senior year. Other transfers were the same. All transferred to lesser successful programs and all played this past year (whereas they wouldn’t have played at Loyola). I see this also in the schools that bring in a ton of transfers. Freshman is recruited and goes to school. Asked to red shirt his freshman season. Now a sophomore and sees them bring in a ton of transfers. They don’t play as a sophomore (or play very little). Now they are between sophomore and junior year and still have three years of eligibility left. They decide to put their name in the portal in hopes some other school (ie a school that may have previously unsuccessfully recruited them) shows interest. Makes sense to me. Especially in those situations where (like Cuse) a new staff comes in that didn’t recruit you.

[wgdsr]

Time will tell if you're right about the long-term growth of the portal but you're already wildly wrong. This year there are 112 players in the portal (as reported in Lacrosse Bucket) of which 28 are non-seniors (25%). Last year it was 176 players of which 83 were non-seniors (47%). That's a 36% drop in total number of players and a 66% drop in non-seniors in 1 year. Last year 39 players (22%) that were in the portal didn't transfer anywhere and of these 27 were seniors (69%). This year so far 32 players (29%) haven't transferred and 21 of them are seniors (66%). The inference is that far fewer players entered the portal this year and, while many more of them were seniors, there is about the same level of success in transferring.

Not interested in the "star" player debate but as we get further away from an extra Covid year being available I just don't see "star" players trying to find a different place to play for their senior year when they've only got 4 years of eligibility.

Covid crew getting through the system is slowing it down. The answer is generally in between. The portal will be a factor going on. The teams that learn how to navigate it correctly will flourish. Throwing around NIL money and stocking up on portal players is likely to be very inconsistent and potentially harmful to the long term stability. You have to find the balance. Its going to be interesting.

Yep, Covid “blip.” If other sports are a measure, the transfer portal will steadily grow over time. No reason to believe lacrosse is an exception to the general rule. It’s a good development, as the portal facilitates options for transferring students.

https://www.ncaa.org/news/2023/2/21/med ... nd-ii.aspx

DocBarrister

I am not sure what the general rule is in non-revenue sports. I am not sure anyone has done the work on that.

there's no general rule for any sport, mostly just cherry picked numbers. what has happened, though, is the nc$$ has had to be more accomodating to athletes. kill the in-conference transfer rules. allow direct graduate school transfers in the revenues. then allow one-time undergrads. cost of attendance. and of course... nil.

impossible to know how far that will stretch, and that is sport specific.

what it has allowed the haves to do is turn over rosters. unhappy or underperforming football or basketball players... they're out. now, they were doing that some anyway in the form of one year schollies, but now their players do that for them. coaches bemoan the chaos, but they have another bite at the apple.

for lacrosse, as this was supposed to be in a lot of cases the chance to get into a selective school, johnny's gonna have a tough time telling pops he wants to go to lower us w news /report because he can't crack the lineup. where that's not the case, still just gonna be tough to find a match school that rivals your 1st choice outside of lax just to get more burn.

the guys best situated seem to be the ones that blow up at mid-tier or below and can trade up. kinda like juco previously.

[AreaLax]

Per Xanders/IL - Anthony Ghobriel to UVa. Nice addition for the Hoos.

UVA is bringing in 3 FO guys (2 transfers and one very late commit from a ‘23). They loose 2 (one to graduation and one transfer out).

[xxxxxxx]

I think the lacrosse numbers will dramatically drop after the Covid guys finish their option of a free year. It was easy to play four years somewhere and then enter the portal for a free one, the student has essentially lived up to his obligations and the guys he came in with are graduating so they are pretty free to move on. In the normal non-covid cycle, you need to leave your class and take a chance to maybe play or not, it's a much tougher call. Do all your credits transfer, what is the financial situation? We will see next year.

[lorin]

I think the lacrosse numbers will dramatically drop after the Covid guys finish their option of a free year. It was easy to play four years somewhere and then enter the portal for a free one, the student has essentially lived up to his obligations and the guys he came in with are graduating so they are pretty free to move on. In the normal non-covid cycle, you need to leave your class and take a chance to maybe play or not, it's a much tougher call. Do all your credits transfer, what is the financial situation? We will see next year.

Agree, will be back to normal someone not happy with playing time, or home sick, but Juniors and seniors will not be entering portal

[lorin]

Per Xanders/IL - Anthony Ghobriel to UVa. Nice addition for the Hoos.

UVA is bringing in 3 FO guys (2 transfers and one very late commit from a ‘23). They loose 2 (one to graduation and one transfer out).

Well you don’t leave Navy after 2 years without a home already in place, and Navy kid had a good game against Sissleberger this year,

[youthathletics]

Per Xanders/IL - Anthony Ghobriel to UVa. Nice addition for the Hoos.

UVA is bringing in 3 FO guys (2 transfers and one very late commit from a ‘23). They loose 2 (one to graduation and one transfer out).

Well you don’t leave Navy after 2 years without a home already in place, and Navy kid had a good game against Sissleberger this year,

As you well know, he was also up against the 2/7 signing clock.

[xxxxxxx]

Every so often a Chris Grey will get missed by the big guys and transfer after a year or two. But I really see the transfer activities slowing dramatically.

[The Orfling]

Really interesting discussion. I agree that after the "COVID bubble" subsides, there will be some diminution in portal activity; at the same time, I think transfer activity will be up for the following reasons:

• Normalizing transferring: before the portal, transfers were seen as more unusual and sometimes the transferring student was assumed to be discontented/disloyal etc. Now the flurry of transfers, and the success seen by teams (Maryland and Notre Dame for example) with some key grad transfers, has normalized transfers.

• Basketball/football effect: The large number of basketball/football transfers, which get a lot of press, have put the concept of transferring "out there" -- analogously, I can tell you that in my geographic area, the DMV, transfers in high schools have increased as well as HS athletes see the college landscape and think about transferring to find a better landing spot.

• NIL money: Now there it's not just a matter of whether a school has scholarships available in lacrosse -- if a lacrosse school offers a chance of NIL money (as at least one 2023 destination was rumored to do, for example), that could be an additional incentive.

I think we'll see transfers in the following categories (a number of which were already mentioned):

• 1. Breakout stars at so-called "lower tier" Division I programs looking to jump to a national championship contender;

• 2. Division III and Division II guys who project as impact Division I players, particularly at specialist positions (e.g. FOGO);

• 3. Guys at positions where they are "blocked" for playing time -- most notably goalie and FOGO, but possibly also at attack (scenario: good first-year attack guy is #4 behind three proven sophomores/juniors -- maybe he transfers rather than spend a second year as a mop-up or EMO player).

The "rich get richer" approach we saw during the COVID bubble will also continue to some extent -- as we've seen with UVA and the face-off position following LaSalla's departure where they are bringing in two FOGOs via the portal, I don't think we'll see a true top-level contender at a transfer-friendly school with a potential hole at goalie or FOGO very often, as they'll pull out all the stops to plug those gaps via the portal.

[10stone5]

This year there are 112 players in the portal (as reported in Lacrosse Bucket) of which 28 are non-seniors (25%). Last year it was 176 players of which 83 were non-seniors (47%). That's a 36% drop in total number of players and a 66% drop in non-seniors in 1 year. Last year 39 players (22%) that were in the portal didn't transfer anywhere and of these 27 were seniors (69%). This year so far 32 players (29%) haven't transferred and 21 of them are seniors (66%). The inference is that far fewer players entered the portal this year and, while many more of them were seniors, there is about the same level of success in transferring.

Transfer Portal Data: Division I Student-Athlete Transfer Trends
Lacrosse only ------->

https://www.ncaa.org/sports/2022/4/25/t ... rends.aspx

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ncaa-portal-lax.jpg (94.7 KiB) Viewed 723 times

[Seahawk]

I think the portal will trend up for football and basketball due to NIL competition while drop dramatically for other sports due to loss of Covid year. There may be an outlier but NIL is really impacting the revenue sports.

[Farfromgeneva]

Moving forward, I think the only teams that win national championships in Division I lacrosse will be those that bring in top-5 transfer classes in addition to top HS recruiting classes. I would not be surprised if we never again see a Division I lacrosse champion that does not routinely bring in major transfer classes.

So you're saying that no Ivy League school will ever win a NC again?

Penn and Brown have already taken transfers. I believe most Ivy League schools do.

But if you’re asking whether any Ivy League school will ever win the national championship if they don’t take incoming transfers? I would be confident in saying no.

It’s a bit like wagering on an NFL team winning the Super Bowl without signing free agents … just not going to happen.

DocBarrister

i would take the other side of this. Mostly because forever is a longtime and I would never have to pay, but have a chance to getting paid. Recently a coach was talking about this and I will not name the schools, but he was shaking his head saying some coaches wake up and go straight to the portal. They look for who entered as they have their first coffee of the day. I believe that strategy will end up being a failure. Its lazy and eventually you lose your culture. I also think you can not ignore it. Using it to fill a couple holes just makes sense. That said developing your core players will always be the most important job for a coach. Its probably reasonable to think someone will hit the lottery on 2-3 back to back classes and win a NC without portal help in the next 50 years. Those are not great odds, so I would certainly want to have the flexibility to add transfers.

This is the issue we will see eventually play out.

[Farfromgeneva]

Moving forward, I think the only teams that win national championships in Division I lacrosse will be those that bring in top-5 transfer classes in addition to top HS recruiting classes. I would not be surprised if we never again see a Division I lacrosse champion that does not routinely bring in major transfer classes.

So you're saying that no Ivy League school will ever win a NC again?

Penn and Brown have already taken transfers. I believe most Ivy League schools do.

But if you’re asking whether any Ivy League school will ever win the national championship if they don’t take incoming transfers? I would be confident in saying no.

It’s a bit like wagering on an NFL team winning the Super Bowl without signing free agents … just not going to happen.

DocBarrister

2 of the 7 Ivy schools took in 1 transfer each. That is not "most". Also, if you notice the Ivies only take kids who are rising sophomores. Going forward as we exit the extra Covid year era the impact of Seniors in the transfer portal is going to lessen and the schools that are successful will be the ones that have shown they can recruit and develop kids. Schools like Rutgers, Jacksonville, and even Syracuse to some extent aren't doing themselves any favors in sacrificing player development for player rental.

I suspect that more and more lacrosse “stars” from lower profile Division I programs and Division II/III schools will impact the transfer pool. Until the Ivy League changes its policies on graduate students, the Ivies will continue to supply a steady stream of players looking to play their final season (e.g., after a medical redshirt).

HS recruiting classes and player development will always be important, but moving forward I am highly skeptical that will be enough to win national championships at the Division I level.

Certainly, Tillman, Tiffany, Corrigan, Danowski, and PM don’t think so.

DocBarrister

The first five are at schools that include: a FB coach effectively killing a player, George Hugely/the goalie coked up in Dewey Beach/the Bucknell road rage grad transfer, Notre Dame has had plenty of issues inside its FB program and we know what admin did to the kids at Duke while a BB player was a sexual predator running around campus.

Ivy leagues don’t have that kind of air cover to have a potential problem transfer roll through.

[Farfromgeneva]

is it even possible that regular commenters on this site don't understand that the only thing "the portal" has done for ease of transferring in re: to lacrosse is allow players to send fewer emails (or calls back in the day)?

do they think that young men that are willing to up and leave will only do it now that they don't have to copy and paste 6 emails?

Of course no one gets that in this myopic forum.

[Farfromgeneva]

I would bet that this year's ND national championship will be the peak impact of transfers on the sport and that it will never get back to that level. The effect on the '24 season will still be substantial (as evidenced by the guys in the pool this year), but as the extra eligibility runs out, the top of the transfer market is going to shrink substantially. You'll still have transfers, but it won't regularly be at the Sowers, Dordevic, Tevlin, Fake (i.e. AA) level, it will more likely be guys finding their level (i.e. guys at big programs going to mid-majors) and the occasional guys at mid-majors who were late bloomers or otherwise under-recruited (i.e. Melendez and Szuluk). I doubt if ever has as substantial a role in determining a national champion as it did in '23.

No doubt, special circumstances impacted the transfer talent pool in recent seasons.

Still, I don’t think that means the transfer portal sees less talent overall or that its impact is measurably lessened. That certainly hasn’t proven to be true in other sports.

If the transfer portal existed in the early 1980s, I’m not sure Larry Quinn waits two years for his chance to start. That alone could have changed the history of lacrosse in that decade.

While the end of the pandemic effect may lessen the supply of star seniors/grads, I think the pool of top-tier underclassmen will continue to grow. We have seen this in other sports. A highly-touted recruit may no longer be willing to sit a year or two before their chance to start and may instead take their chances in the portal.

DocBarrister

the transfer portal did exist in the 1980s. it was called a telephone.

Uh, NO.

The transfer portal allows a player to essentially notify every program in college lacrosse simultaneously of his or her interest in transferring to a new school and program. Head coaches can learn easily who is interested in transferring. Coaches and players may have specific targets in mind, but the portal facilitates communications between them and expands their potential options. That’s important since their top choices may not be viable options.

You would probably need to make more than a hundred calls to achieve anything similar.

The transfer pool in lacrosse is probably only going to expand. In college football, the transfer pool has more than doubled since the portal’s inaugural year, 2018-2019.

https://www.axios.com/2023/05/11/ncaa-f ... tal-record#

I don’t think lacrosse will see the same expansion, but anyone who believes the “peak” of the lacrosse transfer portal is past us is deluding themselves. I think we will see steady growth (with some ups and downs) over time in the transfer portal, with a growing number of underclassmen utilizing the portal. We will continue to see “star” players on a routine basis in the portal.

DocBarrister

uh, no. you have absolutely no perspective here. zero. i happen to have plenty of first hand knowledge and experience in the transfer process. and secondhand. so your postulating here is really silly.

this also seems like a good time to inform you that for football, you weren't able to transfer without sitting out a year until april 2021. so it grew 5.5%. in a period of covid transfer babies. but sure, what a trend!!! and must be a perfect parallel anyway!

you've only made the umpteenth ridiculous ironclad prediction for the day, so it's useless showing you the error of your ways as more will most certainly come tomorrow. what's frustrating in what should be mostly civil and productive debates is you make so much ish up that needs to be corrected and yet you speak with the authority of a combo nostradamus and the king of the nc$$. and it's on to the next.

i met nostradamus. i know nostradamus. and you, sir, are no nostradamus.

Do you think any one of the thousands of student athletes currently in the transfer portal agrees with your position that a telephone even remotely resembles the portal in practicality or utility?

The transfer portal and rule changes have completely changed the transfer process … and for the better.

DocBarrister

Massive leaps to conclusions skipping many steps. This feels like caring more about winning an argument than being correct.