You're wrong. "Team X hasn't done well in the tournament recently" is not one of the selection criteria the committee uses. You are projecting your frustration with recent results on the selection committee. They don't care. They have never cared. Barring total mayhem in some of the other conference tournaments, Hopkins is in a great position to secure an at-large berth if we lose to PSU, based on the actual criteria they use to evaluate the teams.
If head-to-head becomes a factor, then Hopkins is going to get in over Maryland, so it wouldn't even matter if Towson (or Cornell) gets in over them.Homer wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 12:23 pm This is a correct view IMO. The past week was huge, but folks need to pump the brakes on Hopkins being somehow a lock for the tournament at this point. Still need a lot to go right in other conferences to avoid some very sweaty palms on Sunday.
I gather a lot of these comments reflect a growing reliance on what people read on Laxbytes and similar sites. One major drawback to those models is that AFAIK they have no way of accounting for head-to-head. This can really skew things when we're talking about a direct comparison between 2-3 teams for a final bid. If it were to come down to Hopkins and Towson, say, Towson's head-to-head win would be a major factor, probably decisive unless Hop were very far ahead on other metrics. But Laxbytes doesn't "know" any of that, so you have to adjust/discount whatever numbers you see there accordingly.
I think given that Cornell>Towson>Hopkins on the field (and Cornell and Towson have better high-end wins BTW), the best you can say is that it's far from clear that in a direct comparison where you had to take just 1 or 2 of the 3 that Hop would be the one coming out on the right side of that.
The only scenario I see in which the Jays would miss out at this point is if Towson and Loyola BOTH lose their conferences, and Cornell beats Yale. And even then I'm not sure what the data would be but Hop still might have a case over Cornell. Hopkins is locked into a top 10 RPI.