2019 Bracketology Thread

[admin]

There were 8 First Round games in 2018. $ involved ACC teams. Duke beat Villanova... and then went to the Finals. UVA lost to Loyola (a Premier team that's won a national c'ship). SU lost to Cornell (another premier team that's won a national c'ship). And Notre Dame lost to Denver (another premier team that's won a National C'ship). In the next Round, the Quarterfinals, 7 of the 8 teams have won at least one National C'ship. 3 of 4 ACC teams losing in the first round just proves that there are good teams outside of the ACC. And when you look at the teams, they're ACC-like. The usual suspects.

[TheBigIguana]

I was debating saying everyone but MSM for Hop but MSM might be a tourney team. Michigan isn't a gimme. The biggest problem I see is RPI is developed to normalize with bigger samples as most stats are and lacrosse doesn't provide that. But until something better comes along or a more concrete way to combine metrics is figured out RPI is what we have and at the very least it does have some logic behind it.

What logic is that? It seems to have rather limit logic behind it.

While using the RPI might do somewhat alright for the SOS, which averages 10 games, it obviously could mess up in a significant manner with the quality win criteria:
[3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+

One could debate how good this criteria is to begin with, but using a underlying metric, RPI, which is often off by 3 or 4 and occasionally off by more is going to put a lot of error into its results.

The logic is it takes win percentage and factors in the strength of the teams you played to give a better representation of how good you really are. That is what it is trying to do and by that logic it is a good idea but how effective it is can obviously be questioned. I'm in the I don't like RPI but what else can we use right now that is better camp. If some statistics guru wants to get us something better I'm for it.

[ICGrad]

I would rather be incoherent to some....that just get it, don't. "..far greater.....lesser AQ...invites" Care to expound upon this garbage ? AQ's have actually shrunk, not grown. But, expound away. Albany didn't deserve it last spring? Cornell? Both first round winners. UMass mental mistakes cost them against eventual champ, losing by 2. Hopkins played another less than worthey AQ ((your words) , Georgetown.....and wanted to sell beer deep into the 4th quarter, that is why the blue jays won by one. Robbie Mo didn't have the Terps worried. Evah Who else is unallowed? AQ winner Loyola?

Prior season, Towson should have been sleeping of the kegasus sleepover instead of playing in the FF. Tigers got that pesky CAA AQ, and rode that unwortheyness all the way to Memorial day weekend.

Honestly, I've read this 3 times and have little to no idea what they hell you're trying to say.

[stupefied]

There were 8 First Round games in 2018. $ involved ACC teams. Duke beat Villanova... and then went to the Finals. UVA lost to Loyola (a Premier team that's won a national c'ship). SU lost to Cornell (another premier team that's won a national c'ship). And Notre Dame lost to Denver (another premier team that's won a National C'ship). In the next Round, the Quarterfinals, 7 of the 8 teams have won at least one National C'ship. 3 of 4 ACC teams losing in the first round just proves that there are good teams outside of the ACC. And when you look at the teams, they're ACC-like. The usual suspects.

I do believe that ACC teams have a winning record against every conference they have played this year including the B10, Ivy, Patriot, MAAC, Big East, CAA, SoCon, NEC . Each and every one of those five teams ashould be stronger next year given their makeups so likely to cannibalize each other while repeating their winning records against other conferences.

[Gobigred]

I'm in the I don't like RPI but what else can we use right now that is better camp. If some statistics guru wants to get us something better I'm for it.

Try this: https://mattcarberry.com/ZRatings/Z-MLX.HTM

Explanation here: https://mattcarberry.com/ZRatings/ZRatings.html

[TheBigIguana]

I'm in the I don't like RPI but what else can we use right now that is better camp. If some statistics guru wants to get us something better I'm for it.

Try this: https://mattcarberry.com/ZRatings/Z-MLX.HTM

Explanation here: https://mattcarberry.com/ZRatings/ZRatings.html

I'm not going to pretend like I read the explanation close enough to understand but looking at the ratings it has ND 3 and Hopkins 5. Is rewarding teams with so so records even more when they play a hard schedule what we are going for? Feels like RPI already does that a good bit.

[Gobigred]

I'm in the I don't like RPI but what else can we use right now that is better camp. If some statistics guru wants to get us something better I'm for it.

Try this: https://mattcarberry.com/ZRatings/Z-MLX.HTM

Explanation here: https://mattcarberry.com/ZRatings/ZRatings.html

I'm not going to pretend like I read the explanation close enough to understand but looking at the ratings it has ND 3 and Hopkins 5. Is rewarding teams with so so records even more when they play a hard schedule what we are going for? Feels like RPI already does that a good bit.

I see ND at 9 and Hop at 14. You're looking at strength of schedule rankings.

[TheBigIguana]

I'm in the I don't like RPI but what else can we use right now that is better camp. If some statistics guru wants to get us something better I'm for it.

Try this: https://mattcarberry.com/ZRatings/Z-MLX.HTM

Explanation here: https://mattcarberry.com/ZRatings/ZRatings.html

I'm not going to pretend like I read the explanation close enough to understand but looking at the ratings it has ND 3 and Hopkins 5. Is rewarding teams with so so records even more when they play a hard schedule what we are going for? Feels like RPI already does that a good bit.

I see ND at 9 and Hop at 14. You're looking at strength of schedule rankings.

That's what I get for staying up for the whole basketball game last night. Yeah I actually don't mind these too much looking at them correctly but I'm sure some who were complaining about how only the B1G, ACC and Ivy do well in RPI will have the same problem. For me that is just how this season has gone so any stat is going to find that. But thank you for sharing this because I will be checking back on it in future seasons.

[runrussellrun]

I would rather be incoherent to some....that just get it, don't. "..far greater.....lesser AQ...invites" Care to expound upon this garbage ? AQ's have actually shrunk, not grown. But, expound away. Albany didn't deserve it last spring? Cornell? Both first round winners. UMass mental mistakes cost them against eventual champ, losing by 2. Hopkins played another less than worthey AQ ((your words) , Georgetown.....and wanted to sell beer deep into the 4th quarter, that is why the blue jays won by one. Robbie Mo didn't have the Terps worried. Evah Who else is unallowed? AQ winner Loyola?

Prior season, Towson should have been sleeping of the kegasus sleepover instead of playing in the FF. Tigers got that pesky CAA AQ, and rode that unwortheyness all the way to Memorial day weekend.

Honestly, I've read this 3 times and have little to no idea what they hell you're trying to say.

You made the statement, disparaging AQ's as not worthy. I was merely pointing out the results (mostly good, certainly respectable) of the unworthy AQ teams. Unless, the "so many unworthy increase in AQ's" was really only talking about one team, last year. Canibus, which got rolled by Robbie Mo. How did Robbie Mo (Robert Morris) do against Maryland?

Not you fault........why right write?

[laxreference]

Good start to the night for the bubble teams. Rutgers had a 4% chance of winning the B1G, so their loss knocks out a potential bid-thief. The bigger deal is probably Drexel taking down UMass. That makes the Towson road to the CAA title a little smoother (at least according to Lax-ELO), which would reduce the risk of another bid-thief.

Anyway, Bracketology has been updated for the first round of games.

[laxreference]

Projections have been updated through the Hopkins and Towson wins.

[Hawkeye]

At-larges are set if Towson and Loyola win their leagues.

(And anyone but Brown in the Ivy League... this one seems likely.)

ACC - 4 (UVA, Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse)
B1G - 2 (PSU/JHU loser, Maryland)
Ivy - 2 (Two of: Penn/Yale/Cornell)

[Mr3Putt]

Hold your horses! Big games Friday will trim things up, before the conference finals over the weekend.

[Hawkeye]

Hold your horses! Big games Friday will trim things up, before the conference finals over the weekend.

“If Towson and Loyola win their leagues”

See above.

[laf]

The win today pushes Hopkins ahead of Syracuse, Denver and Towson. If Hopkins loses to Penn State, Hopkins does not lose any ground and holds their position. If Towson loses, oddly,, Hopkins will now move up to possibly the 8th seed or a home-field advantage in the first round. If Hopkins beats Penn State, Hopkins will move up to 4th, 5th or 6th seed. I do not see any scenario where NHopkins does not get in but I still no guarantees.

Maryland may lose their first round home game!



Hopkins current RPI, QW and SOS is 9th, 15th and 2nd.
Lose to Penn State and those numbers become 9th, 15th and 1st.
Beat Penn State and the numbers are: 4th, 11th and 1st.

www.laxbytes.com

laxinteractive.com

[calourie]

laf's future interactive possibilities show Yale's metrics holding up well agianst Maryland and Syracuse even with a loss to Cornell tomorrow. I would assume the same would be true of Penn as well even if they were to lose the Ivy AQ to Cornell. I haven't looked into what happens to Cornell with a loss to Yale but it wouldn't surprise me if it rendered them bubble out. Anyway not quite as cut and dried as Hawkeye's projections. Ivies still with a shot at three spots.

[Hawkeye]

I haven't looked into what happens to Cornell with a loss to Yale but it wouldn't surprise me if it rendered them bubble out. Anyway not quite as cut and dried as Hawkeye's projections.

If Towson and Loyola take AQs, I don’t see anyone with a resume to bump Cornell out of the 8th at-large spot (even if they lose to Yale).

Denver? Ohio State? Not happening... there isn’t anyone else. Open for feedback, but I don’t see how Cornell misses without Drexel/someone in the PL grabbing an AQ out from under the Baltimore teams.

[laxreference]

Ran Cornell through the simulator. If they beat Yale, they jump up to 77.4%. With a loss, they drop down to 41.3%.

Agree that they are looking good though. At this point, the resume isn't the question anymore, it's how many teams steal bids.

[Nyhoo]

If loyola loses tonight, why would they be in line for an at large? They havent won a big game since february.

[10stone5]

Because it doesn’t matter when the “big wins” happened.
Just that they happened.