All Things Russia & Ukraine

[NattyBohChamps04]

Kakhovka dam has been blown up. More war crimes on top of the pile.

Russia likely caused Europe's largest man-made disaster in decades – Ukraine's Foreign Minister

[cradleandshoot]

Kakhovka dam has been blown up. More war crimes on top of the pile.

Russia likely caused Europe's largest man-made disaster in decades – Ukraine's Foreign Minister

So what controlling legal authority will ever wind up prosecuting these war crimes? Do you seriously think Putin gives two figs? Every condemnation as a war criminal is a feather in his cap.Accusations of war crimes mean diddly jack squat if nothing is done about them.

It is ironic how similar Putin and Hitler are. They both suffered from delusions of grandeur. I think there are Putin folks who may have supported him for years that now want him dead and gone.

[NattyBohChamps04]

Kakhovka dam has been blown up. More war crimes on top of the pile.

Russia likely caused Europe's largest man-made disaster in decades – Ukraine's Foreign Minister

So what controlling legal authority will ever wind up prosecuting these war crimes? Do you seriously think Putin gives two figs? Every condemnation as a war criminal is a feather in his cap.Accusations of war crimes mean diddly jack squat if nothing is done about them.

It is ironic how similar Putin and Hitler are. They both suffered from delusions of grandeur. I think there are Putin folks who may have supported him for years that now want him dead and gone.

Technically the ICC I guess. My comment was more on the dire nature of the event - they're called war crimes because they're so above and beyond. Rather than seeing Putin hauled before some court.

[cradleandshoot]

Kakhovka dam has been blown up. More war crimes on top of the pile.

Russia likely caused Europe's largest man-made disaster in decades – Ukraine's Foreign Minister

So what controlling legal authority will ever wind up prosecuting these war crimes? Do you seriously think Putin gives two figs? Every condemnation as a war criminal is a feather in his cap.Accusations of war crimes mean diddly jack squat if nothing is done about them.

It is ironic how similar Putin and Hitler are. They both suffered from delusions of grandeur. I think there are Putin folks who may have supported him for years that now want him dead and gone.

Technically the ICC I guess. My comment was more on the dire nature of the event - they're called war crimes because they're so above and beyond. Rather than seeing Putin hauled before some court.

I would get much more satisfaction seeing Putin meet the same fate that Mussolini did. He has to be making huge enemies from his own military leaders watching their troops being used as cannon fodder to achieve Putin's objective.

[a fan]

4. It is incompatible with the rules of the existing world order for Russia to annex Crimea. But it should be possible to put Crimea’s relationship to Ukraine on a less fraught basis. To that end, Russia would recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea. Ukraine should reinforce Crimea’s autonomy in elections held in the presence of international observers. The process would include removing any ambiguities about the status of the Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol.

This was written by Kissinger AFTER Putin annexed Crimea, right?

Yes. Kissinger wrote that shortly after Russia annexed Crimea & just before pro-Russian separatists began seizing territory in the Donbas.
He hoped that peace could be maintained by Ukraine granting semi-autonomy to Crimea & the separatist Donbas enclaves, that would give assurances to ethnic Russian's in the east & guarantee Russia's control of their Black Sea Fleet base at Sevastopol, with Ukraine remaining neutral & not joining NATO. It would also have required Ukraine to allow overland supply access to Crimea from Russia & continue the flow of fresh water to Crimea via the N Crimea canal, all of which Ukraine refused to negotiate.

This part of Kissinger's 2014 opinion has proven sadly prophetic :
The West must understand that, to Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign country. Russian history began in what was called Kievan-Rus. The Russian religion spread from there. Ukraine has been part of Russia for centuries, and their histories were intertwined before then. Some of the most important battles for Russian freedom, starting with the Battle of Poltava in 1709 , were fought on Ukrainian soil. The Black Sea Fleet — Russia’s means of projecting power in the Mediterranean — is based by long-term lease in Sevastopol, in Crimea. Even such famed dissidents as Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn and Joseph Brodsky insisted that Ukraine was an integral part of Russian history and, indeed, of Russia.

The European Union must recognize that its bureaucratic dilatoriness and subordination of the strategic element to domestic politics in negotiating Ukraine’s relationship to Europe contributed to turning a negotiation into a crisis. Foreign policy is the art of establishing priorities.

The Ukrainians are the decisive element. They live in a country with a complex history and a polyglot composition. The Western part was incorporated into the Soviet Union in 1939 , when Stalin and Hitler divided up the spoils. Crimea, 60 percent of whose population is Russian , became part of Ukraine only in 1954 , when Nikita Khrushchev, a Ukrainian by birth, awarded it as part of the 300th-year celebration of a Russian agreement with the Cossacks. The west is largely Catholic; the east largely Russian Orthodox. The west speaks Ukrainian; the east speaks mostly Russian. Any attempt by one wing of Ukraine to dominate the other — as has been the pattern — would lead eventually to civil war or break up. To treat Ukraine as part of an East-West confrontation would scuttle for decades any prospect to bring Russia and the West — especially Russia and Europe — into a cooperative international system.

Ukraine has been independent for only 23 years; it had previously been under some kind of foreign rule since the 14th century. Not surprisingly, its leaders have not learned the art of compromise, even less of historical perspective. The politics of post-independence Ukraine clearly demonstrates that the root of the problem lies in efforts by Ukrainian politicians to impose their will on recalcitrant parts of the country, first by one faction, then by the other. That is the essence of the conflict between Viktor Yanu­kovych and his principal political rival, Yulia Tymo­shenko. They represent the two wings of Ukraine and have not been willing to share power. A wise U.S. policy toward Ukraine would seek a way for the two parts of the country to cooperate with each other. We should seek reconciliation, not the domination of a faction.

Russia and the West, and least of all the various factions in Ukraine, have not acted on this principle. Each has made the situation worse. Russia would not be able to impose a military solution without isolating itself at a time when many of its borders are already precarious. For the West, the demonization of Vladimir Putin is not a policy; it is an alibi for the absence of one.

Well.....his directly blaming Putin for what I cited, right out of the gate. Putin annexed Crimea, which is a non-starter in Kissinger's view. At the point that he wrote this, The EU and Ukraine were holding up their part of the Kissinger's bargain.

And as you say, Crimea is Putin's now. So.....Kissinger's ideas are moot as of 2014.

[old salt]

This looks like an act of desperation. It is not in Russia's long term strategic interest to blow that dam if it eliminates the supply of fresh water to Crimea & jeopardizes the supply of cooling water for the nuc power plant upstream, which they control.

imho -- if Putin ordered this, he'll resort to a tac nuc or dirty bomb. That nuc power plant may become one now.

[old salt]

And as you say, Crimea is Putin's now. So.....Kissinger's ideas are moot as of 2014.

Not really. They remained valid until the invasion in Feb 2022. The historical perspective & underlying causes remain the same.

Always the realist, Kissinger has revised his assessment, based on events leading to the 2022 invasion & the course of the war.
He acknowledges that neutrality is no longer feasible for Ukraine & that NATO membership is inevitable.
His advice & warnings were not heeded. What he warned about -- happened.

https://unherd.com/thepost/henry-kissin ... propriate/

[a fan]

And as you say, Crimea is Putin's now. So.....Kissinger's ideas are moot as of 2014.

Not really. They remained valid until the invasion in Feb 2022. The historical perspective & underlying causes remain the same.

Always the realist, Kissinger has revised his assessment, based on events leading to the 2022 invasion & the course of the war.
He acknowledges that neutrality is no longer feasible for Ukraine & that NATO membership is inevitable.
His advice & warnings were not heeded.

https://unherd.com/thepost/henry-kissin ... propriate/

My point is: Putin was the first to ignore Kissinger's advice....at that point, no one could fix this.

[a fan]

This looks like an act of desperation. It is not in Russia's long term strategic interest to blow that dam if it eliminates the supply of fresh water to Crimea & jeopardizes the supply of cooling water for the nuc power plant upstream, which they control.

imho -- if Putin ordered this, he'll resort to a tac nuc or dirty bomb. That nuc power plant may become one now.

How do we know who did this? Am I missing a news story?

[old salt]

This looks like an act of desperation. It is not in Russia's long term strategic interest to blow that dam if it eliminates the supply of fresh water to Crimea & jeopardizes the supply of cooling water for the nuc power plant upstream, which they control.

imho -- if Putin ordered this, he'll resort to a tac nuc or dirty bomb. That nuc power plant may become one now.

How do we know who did this? Am I missing a news story?

We don't know (officially) yet. Both sides are claiming the other did it.
Russia had control of the dam & the power plant.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Illia Ponomarenko

@IAPonomarenko
So, based on everything we have seen by the end of this day, I guess here's my humble theory regarding the Kakhovka Dam destruction:
- Russia, as an occupying power, in violation of international law and despite multiple Ukrainian pleas, completely failed to ensure the security and proper maintenance of this key facility of very special importance.
- Russia, despite Ukrainian and international efforts, absolutely failed to impose a demilitarized zone surrounding this key facility, and, similarly to facilities like the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, it absolutely failed to abstain from deploying military forces in the facility's vicinity.
- And, in the first place, by default, as an aggressor waging a destructive war of conquest and openly defying the law of war, it is directly and solely responsible for the whole of the ongoing massive loss of life and the destruction taking place in Ukraine.
So it's more than obvious that regardless of the destruction's very immediate cause (be it Russian bombs planted or deadly Russian negligence), all 100% of the blame is on nothing but Russia.
I guess no one is taking seriously a dumb conspiracy theory saying that the dam could be destroyed by Ukraine -- for the sake of... causing a major technological disaster, with over 80 cities and towns flooded and the whole region affected, in a territory it pursues to liberate from the foreign aggressor to no substantial military effect?
With or without the major flooding, Ukraine is not even close to seriously expecting a successful and decisive landing operation in the Dnipro east bank, due to very obvious challenges and complexities.
So, given the fact that the sudden disaster also seriously affected Russia's military presence in the region -- I guess the most probable answer is that Russians heck things up. Yes, AGAIN. As they often do.
They absolutely failed to ensure the dam's proper operation, especially given its poor condition, and, knowingly committed gross violations, very possibly due to the fear of a possible limited Ukrainian assault from across the Dnipro.
heck around and finding out, Vol. 45633. Knowing what Russia and its system is, the insane stupidity, IMHO, feels like a very likely answer. The result is what we're seeing now live. An insane tragedy for Ukraine that we will have to deal with for decades to come.
However, the jerk of consequence is coming soon, too.
Again.

[a fan]

This looks like an act of desperation. It is not in Russia's long term strategic interest to blow that dam if it eliminates the supply of fresh water to Crimea & jeopardizes the supply of cooling water for the nuc power plant upstream, which they control.

imho -- if Putin ordered this, he'll resort to a tac nuc or dirty bomb. That nuc power plant may become one now.

How do we know who did this? Am I missing a news story?

We don't know (officially) yet. Both sides are claiming the other did it.
Russia had control of the dam & the power plant.

Got it. Thank you.

[old salt]

imho -- this is really bad, a potential game changer. If it can be conclusively proven as a deliberate act by Russia, I could see it leading to US military entry into the war. ...launch 'em.

We may never find out with sufficient certainty who did this.
We're hesitant to accuse Russia at the UN.
The only thing worse than Russia doing this would be Ukraine doing this to their own citizens.
Lesson learned from this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... ne-russia/
U.S. had intelligence of detailed Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream pipeline
THE DISCORD Leaks : The CIA learned last June, via a European spy agency, that a six-person team of Ukrainian special operations forces intended to sabotage the Russia-to-Germany natural gas project
By Shane Harris and Souad Mekhennet, June 6, 2023

Three months before saboteurs bombed the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline, the Biden administration learned from a close ally that the Ukrainian military had planned a covert attack on the undersea network, using a small team of divers who reported directly to the commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Details about the plan, which have not been previously reported, were collected by a European intelligence service and shared with the CIA in June 2022. They provide some of the most specific evidence to date linking the government of Ukraine to the eventual attack in the Baltic Sea, which U.S. and Western officials have called a brazen and dangerous act of sabotage on Europe’s energy infrastructure.

The European intelligence report was shared on the chat platform Discord, allegedly by Air National Guard member Jack Teixeira. The Washington Post obtained a copy from one of Teixeira’s online friends.

The intelligence report was based on information obtained from an individual in Ukraine. The source’s information could not immediately be corroborated, but the CIA shared the report with Germany and other European countries last June, according to multiple officials familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence operations and diplomatic discussions.

The highly specific details, which include numbers of operatives and methods of attack, show that for nearly a year, Western allies have had a basis to suspect Kyiv in the sabotage. That assessment has only strengthened in recent months as German law enforcement investigators uncovered evidence about the bombing that bears striking similarities to what the European service said Ukraine was planning.

Officials in multiple countries confirmed that the intelligence summary posted on Discord accurately stated what the European service told the CIA. The Post agreed to withhold the name of the European country as well as some aspects of the suspected plan at the request of government officials, who said exposing the information would threaten sources and operations.

Ukrainian officials, who have previously denied the country was involved in the Nord Stream attack, did not respond to requests for comment.

The White House declined to comment on a detailed set of questions about the European report and the alleged Ukrainian military plot, including whether U.S. officials tried to stop the mission from proceeding.

The CIA also declined to comment.

On Sept. 26, three underwater explosions caused massive leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, leaving only one of the four gas links in the network intact. Some Biden administration officials initially suggested that Russia was to blame for what President Biden called “a deliberate act of sabotage,” promising that the United States would work with its allies “to get to the bottom of exactly what ... happened.” With winter approaching, it appeared the Kremlin might have intended to strangle the flow of energy, an act of “blackmail,” some leaders said, designed to intimidate European countries into withdrawing their financial and military support for Ukraine, and refraining from further sanctions.

Zelensky, in private, pushed for bold attacks inside Russia, leak shows

Biden administration officials now privately concede there is no evidence that conclusively points to Moscow’s involvement. But publicly they have deflected questions about who might be responsible. European officials in several countries have quietly suggested that Ukraine was behind the attack but have resisted publicly saying so over fears that blaming Kyiv could fracture the alliance against Russia. At gatherings of European and NATO policymakers, officials have settled into a rhythm; as one senior European diplomat said recently, “Don’t talk about Nord Stream.”

The European intelligence made clear that the would-be attackers were not rogue operatives. All those involved reported directly to Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s highest-ranking military officer, who was put in charge so that the nation’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, wouldn’t know about the operation, the intelligence report said.

Keeping Zelensky out of the loop would have given the Ukrainian leader a plausible way to deny involvement in an audacious attack on civilian infrastructure that could ignite public outrage and jeopardize Western support for Ukraine — particularly in Germany, which before the war got half its natural gas from Russia and had long championed the Nord Stream project in the face of opposition from other European allies.

While Gazprom, the Russian state-owned gas conglomerate, owns 51 percent of Nord Stream, Western energy companies, including from Germany, France and the Netherlands, are partners and invested billions in the pipelines. Ukraine had long complained that Nord Stream would allow Russia to bypass Ukrainian pipes, depriving Kyiv of huge transit revenue.

The intelligence summary says that the Ukrainian military operation was “put on hold,” for reasons that remain unclear. The Ukrainians had planned to attack the pipeline on the heels of a major allied naval exercise, known as BALTOPS, that ran from June 5 to 17, 2022, according to the report.

But according to German law enforcement officials investigating September’s Nord Stream bombing, key details emerging of that operation line up with the earlier plot.

For instance, the Ukrainian individual who informed the European intelligence service in June said that six members of Ukraine’s special operations forces using false identities intended to rent a boat and, using a submersible vehicle, dive to the floor of the Baltic Sea and then damage or destroy the pipeline and escape undetected. In addition to oxygen, the team planned to bring helium, which is recommended for especially deep dives.

German investigators now believe that six individuals using fake passports rented a sailing yacht in September, embarked from Germany and planted explosives that severed the pipelines, according to officials familiar with that investigation. They believe the operatives were skilled divers, given that the explosives were planted at a depth of about 240 feet, in the range that experts say helium would be helpful for maintaining mental focus.

Investigators have matched explosive residue found on the pipeline to traces found inside the cabin of the yacht, called Andromeda. And they have linked Ukrainian individuals to the rental of the boat via an apparent front company in Poland. Investigators also suspect that at least one individual who serves in the Ukrainian military was involved in the sabotage operation.

The June plot differs from the September attack in some respects. The European intelligence report notes that the Ukrainian operatives planned to attack the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, but it makes no mention of Nord Stream 2, a newer line. The intelligence report also says that the saboteurs would embark from a different location in Europe, not Warnemünde, a German port town on the Baltic, where the Andromeda was rented.

The CIA initially questioned the credibility of the information, in part because the source in Ukraine who provided the details had not yet established a track record of producing reliable information, according to officials familiar with the matter. The European service, a trusted U.S. partner, felt that the source was reliable.

But despite any reservations the CIA might have had, the agency communicated the June intelligence to counterparts in Germany and other European countries, officials said. The European service also shared it with Germany, one person said. German intelligence personnel briefed lawmakers in Berlin in late June before they left for their summer break, according to an official with knowledge of the closed-door presentation.

Officials familiar with the European report conceded that it is possible that the suspected Ukrainian plotters might have been apprised that the intelligence was shared with several countries and that they may have changed some elements of the plan.

But the report from the European intelligence service isn’t the only piece of evidence pointing to Kyiv’s role in the pipeline bombing.

The Post previously reported that governments investigating the explosions uncovered communications that showed pro-Ukrainian individuals or entities discussed the possibility of carrying out an attack on the Nord Stream pipelines. Those conversations took place before the attack, but were only discovered in its aftermath, when spy agencies scoured data for possible clues, a senior Western security official said.

Despite waiving Trump-era sanctions on the Russia-to-Germany natural gas pipeline as an attempt to mend fences with Berlin, the Biden administration had long harbored concerns about Nord Stream and did not shed tears over its September demise.

After months of pressure from Washington, the German government halted final authorization of Nord Stream 2 just days before Russian forces invaded Ukraine in February 2022, surprising many U.S. and European officials who had worried that Berlin would find Russia too important an energy source to sever ties. At the time of the attack, the pipeline was intact and had already been pumped full with 300 million cubic meters of natural gas to ready it for operations.

Nearly a month before the rupture, the Russian energy giant Gazprom stopped flows on Nord Stream 1, hours after the Group of Seven industrialized nations announced a forthcoming price cap on Russian oil, a move intended to put a dent in the Kremlin’s treasury.

Officials have said that the cost of repairing the pipelines would run into the hundreds of millions of dollars.

While U.S. intelligence officials were initially skeptical of the European reporting, they have long been concerned about aggressive operations by Ukraine that could escalate the war into a direct conflict between Russia and the United States and its NATO allies.

In February of this year, on the eve of the war’s first anniversary, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency agreed, “at Washington’s request,” to postpone planned strikes on Moscow, according to another intelligence document leaked on Discord. That incident illustrated a broader tension that has existed throughout the war: Ukraine, eager to bring the fight to Russia’s home turf, is sometimes restrained by the United States.

Officials in Washington and Europe have admonished Ukraine for attacks outside its territory that they felt went too far. After a car bomb near Moscow in August killed Daria Dugina, in an attack that appeared intended for her father — a prominent Russian nationalist whose writing had helped shape a Kremlin narrative about Ukraine — Western officials said they made clear to Zelensky that they held operatives in his government responsible. The attack was seen as provocative and risked a severe Russian response, officials said.

Ukraine has persisted with strikes inside Russia, including drone strikes on an airfield and on targets in Moscow that U.S. officials have linked to Kyiv.

[youthathletics]

@VivekGRamaswamy
It now turns out Ukraine committed the Nord Stream pipeline attack & Biden knew it was coming *3 months before the attack.* Yet afterward, the Biden administration suggested Russia was responsible & Biden called it a “deliberate act of sabotage.” Unreal.

https://twitter.com/VivekGRamaswamy/sta ... 75264?s=20

[MDlaxfan76]

It's pretty clear, though not said aloud, that the US has given a thumbs up for Ukrainian or Ukrainian aligned strikes within Russia, but not using American equipment. Various NATO folks have said the Ukrainians have a right to defend themselves...

The dam may well be neglect rather than purposeful sabotage by the Russians, but either is possible. Close to impossible for the Ukrainians to have set off an explosion inside the dam. And with no benefit to Ukraine militarily or any other way. The neglect argument would make the most sense in explaining why some of the Russian troops were still in the way of the water.

I don't see it as having any impact on the US entering war.

[cradleandshoot]

It's pretty clear, though not said aloud, that the US has given a thumbs up for Ukrainian or Ukrainian aligned strikes within Russia, but not using American equipment. Various NATO folks have said the Ukrainians have a right to defend themselves...

The dam may well be neglect rather than purposeful sabotage by the Russians, but either is possible. Close to impossible for the Ukrainians to have set off an explosion inside the dam. And with no benefit to Ukraine militarily or any other way. The neglect argument would make the most sense in explaining why some of the Russian troops were still in the way of the water.

I don't see it as having any impact on the US entering war.

I hope you correct. The cynical side of me is waiting for the next gulf of Tonkin event to change hearts and minds. The only real solution to this boiling cauldron is for Putin to be whacked. The war in Ukraine will be a festering sore for as long as Putin still lives and breathes.

[Kismet]

@VivekGRamaswamy
It now turns out Ukraine committed the Nord Stream pipeline attack & Biden knew it was coming *3 months before the attack.* Yet afterward, the Biden administration suggested Russia was responsible & Biden called it a “deliberate act of sabotage.” Unreal.

https://twitter.com/VivekGRamaswamy/sta ... 75264?s=20

Sure, you can believe this guy.

[a fan]

. The war in Ukraine will be a festering sore for as long as Putin still lives and breathes.

That's what I believe. This whole thing is about Putin. Russia has nothing to do with it.

Putin goes away? That's where peace and/or withdrawal will be easy.....don't have to worry about egos anymore.

[PizzaSnake]

This looks like an act of desperation. It is not in Russia's long term strategic interest to blow that dam if it eliminates the supply of fresh water to Crimea & jeopardizes the supply of cooling water for the nuc power plant upstream, which they control.

imho -- if Putin ordered this, he'll resort to a tac nuc or dirty bomb. That nuc power plant may become one now.

How do we know who did this? Am I missing a news story?

We don't know (officially) yet. Both sides are claiming the other did it.
Russia had control of the dam & the power plant.

Qui bono?

It depends…

[youthathletics]

@VivekGRamaswamy
It now turns out Ukraine committed the Nord Stream pipeline attack & Biden knew it was coming *3 months before the attack.* Yet afterward, the Biden administration suggested Russia was responsible & Biden called it a “deliberate act of sabotage.” Unreal.

https://twitter.com/VivekGRamaswamy/sta ... 75264?s=20

Sure, you can believe this guy.

he’s not wrong. Biden is on record talking about it.