2019 Bracketology Thread

[foreverlax]

Hawkeye, lets say for discussion, hopkins/Loyola/Towson win their respective leads, do you see them getting a seed in the tournament

My gut feeling on this one, and it's hard to say without knowing what all else happens this week, but here goes...

Loyola - easily
Hopkins - probably (more likely with a win over Penn State than with one over Rutgers)
Towson - doubtful

What about if Hop wins against UMD this thursday but loses in the Big10 finals? is that enough to get in and get a seed, or just get into the NCAA and go on a road game

If they lose to Rutgers? Really depends

[Mr3Putt]

It’s interesting w Maryland,considered a top 5 team all year ,will have one win over Penn who will make the tournament. Say the Big10 is chalk. Will Maryland host a game ?

[runrussellrun]

RPI is ridiculous. Because there are only 70 plus teams, it's harder to see. And even with D3, it's worse but not clearly flawed. And then you do it with HS and it's clear as day. Come Sunday, we'll need a tool that allows for fine-tuning and RPI is not that tool.

Are the Boston Bruins in the playoffs b/c of RPI or SOS? nope. How'z about using the most simplist of stats.......WINNING PERCENTAGE. Like professional leagues use. Simple

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/lacrosse-men ... t/team/233

3 CAA teams that have a winning percentage 15 points higher has Hopkins. (awtta be a rule that a team can NOT sit out, uninvited, if an at large team that has a less than 15 point winning percentage lower, gets invited. ) And, the sick thing is, the n$aa makes AQ winners, with better winning %'s, play in non-existent n$aa playoff mid-week games, while lowly at larges get the entire week off. Make the at larges play mid week. Oh, b/c there's an equal "rule" of AQ's vs at larges? Really? who would care? no one.

Hopkins sits 33rd in all of n$aa in winning %, just a few points higher than UNC-heels......and we talk of inviting these teams because they lost "well". Hopkins has the same winning percentage as Holy Cross. Let THAT sink in.
It would be a thing of beauty, to watch Hopkins visit Amherst, MA......but, alas, if ....if they win the b1g, they will host instead? Oh well, it will be Robbie MO versus Canibus in the mid week game that doesn't exist. Only in lacrosse, do we reward losing so much.

[runrussellrun]

Another reason why SOS/RPI or any of the current stats used for invitation are horrible is lack of cross breeding.

Denver (big east )2019 contests against OOC

ACC-3 games
MAAC-ZERO
IVY-1 game
Patriot-ZERO
SunShine-1 game
CAA-1 game
NEC-ZERO games
AE- zero games
B1G- 1 game, cancelled, so ZERO
INdependents- 2 games

So, of the 9 leagues/conferences, Denver does NOT play games.....at all, not one, against FIVE of them. and SOS/RPI is what we use?

NitME Lions OOC games.

ACC- ZERO
MAAC-ZERO
IVY-3 games
Patriot-ZERO
Sunshine 1 game
CAA ZERO
NEC 1 game
AE 1 game
Big East 1 game
Independents- 1 game

Distinctly missing are the gripes that Penn St. nitme lions haven't played anyone, b/c they haven't played the best ....the ACC. at all. Haven't played anyone from a total of 4 leagues/conferences. Awesomer.

What a system. Keep on believing that RPI/SOS, etc. matters. Any professional sports use the who you lost too system to invite playoff teams?

exactly

[admin]

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/lacrosse-men ... t/team/233

You prefer this list to the list we currently have?

[runrussellrun]

Yup. Although, a Richmond/Jacksonville Sunshine Conf. final would mean THREE teams from that conference would make the n$aa's, based on winning percentage. But, college lacrosse can't have that. 3 teams from one conference. UN heard of
(some laundry is more important than other laundry.....meaning, only three leagues are allowed 3, or more, n$aa invites......just ...well, you know, b/c)
Army better just win out the AQ, because ONLY Loyola can get an at large, no one else from Patriot need apply.......because winning lots of Patriot league regular season games matters not. Right Boston? Yes, lets invite UNC, Rutgers and Hopkins instead. because of ticket sales????????

[TheBigIguana]

Yup. Although, a Richmond/Jacksonville Sunshine Conf. final would mean THREE teams from that conference would make the n$aa's, based on winning percentage. But, college lacrosse can't have that. 3 teams from one conference. UN heard of
(some laundry is more important than other laundry.....meaning, only three leagues are allowed 3, or more, n$aa invites......just ...well, you know, b/c)
Army better just win out the AQ, because ONLY Loyola can get an at large, no one else from Patriot need apply.......because winning lots of Patriot league regular season games matters not. Right Boston? Yes, lets invite UNC, Rutgers and Hopkins instead. because of ticket sales????????

You really think going 6-2 in the Patriot is comparable to Hopkins going 7-6 vs their schedule? I love the Patriot League but it isn't very strong in the bottom half and should be treated as such. Part of RPI is winning percentage but the purpose of RPI, despite the flaws, is to contextualize winning percentage since using it straight up on 73 teams with widely varying schedules would be silly. Army and BU could beat someone like Duke on their day but toss them into Duke's schedule and I promise they aren't putting up the same record. Loyola can get an at large because they play a murderers row out of conference too.

[runrussellrun]

Yup. Although, a Richmond/Jacksonville Sunshine Conf. final would mean THREE teams from that conference would make the n$aa's, based on winning percentage. But, college lacrosse can't have that. 3 teams from one conference. UN heard of
(some laundry is more important than other laundry.....meaning, only three leagues are allowed 3, or more, n$aa invites......just ...well, you know, b/c)
Army better just win out the AQ, because ONLY Loyola can get an at large, no one else from Patriot need apply.......because winning lots of Patriot league regular season games matters not. Right Boston? Yes, lets invite UNC, Rutgers and Hopkins instead. because of ticket sales????????

You really think going 6-2 in the Patriot is comparable to Hopkins going 7-6 vs their schedule? I love the Patriot League but it isn't very strong in the bottom half and should be treated as such. Part of RPI is winning percentage but the purpose of RPI, despite the flaws, is to contextualize winning percentage since using it straight up on 73 teams with widely varying schedules would be silly. Army and BU could beat someone like Duke on their day but toss them into Duke's schedule and I promise they aren't putting up the same record. Loyola can get an at large because they play a murderers row out of conference too.

Your first question is hillaryous......read it out loud. To someone who doesn't know lacrosse. Ask them to defend your statement. And include the Patriot teams ACTUAL record, like you did Hopkins. Army is 11-4. Boston U. beat Loyola, by much....and late season......a team that Hopkins got destroyed by.

And, the second statement is equally hillaryous. Using winning percentage, in "context", is better than real time. Um....ok. And, guessing your thinking that ACC losing to a Sunshine team, twice, was early season fluke syndrone >>>>>>> That Boston or Army would actually WIN some of those on Duke's schedule, instead of lose them. like Duke did. Marquette isn't even in the BIG east playoffs......yet took Duke to OT.

Think man, think. it's 2019. Those youth kids we coached 10 years ago are now coaching too........think man, think.

[hens62]

Are the Boston Bruins in the playoffs b/c of RPI or SOS? nope. How'z about using the most simplist of stats.......WINNING PERCENTAGE. Like professional leagues use. Simple

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/lacrosse-men ... t/team/233

3 CAA teams that have a winning percentage 15 points higher has Hopkins. (awtta be a rule that a team can NOT sit out, uninvited, if an at large team that has a less than 15 point winning percentage lower, gets invited. ) And, the sick thing is, the n$aa makes AQ winners, with better winning %'s, play in non-existent n$aa playoff mid-week games, while lowly at larges get the entire week off. Make the at larges play mid week. Oh, b/c there's an equal "rule" of AQ's vs at larges? Really? who would care? no one.

Hopkins sits 33rd in all of n$aa in winning %, just a few points higher than UNC-heels......and we talk of inviting these teams because they lost "well". Hopkins has the same winning percentage as Holy Cross. Let THAT sink in.
It would be a thing of beauty, to watch Hopkins visit Amherst, MA......but, alas, if ....if they win the b1g, they will host instead? Oh well, it will be Robbie MO versus Canibus in the mid week game that doesn't exist. Only in lacrosse, do we reward losing so much.

This is insanity... win % works in pro sports because they play 82 games... also, every team is a professional franchise. The worst team in the NHL is full of pros. In NCAA lax, they play ~14 games and the disparity between best and worst team is MASSIVE. Wouldn't you rather reward good programs for scheduling other good programs rather than beat up on the St Bonaventures of the world? Isnt that the whole point, to watch competitive lacrosse?

Regarding the play in game, if you think the NEC/MAAC/Socon/AE AQ winners have ANY chance of winning the championship your even more insane. Which team in those conferences is sniffing a final four? Albany is the only one to come anywhere close, and they had an all time great FOGO and a 1st team AA. None of them have anywhere close to that this year. I would much prefer they knock each other out so we can watch the REAL teams that have a REAL chance of winning play each other.

[admin]

I don't see this as a problem with as small of a set of teams as there is in D1. You are correct that this is a big problem in high school athletics.

With any system, except a closed system, there's going to be some margin of error. A team goes 10-2 in a league with 13 teams, their opponents sum record will be pretty darn close to 6-6 and their Opponents record will be pretty darn close to 6-6. i.e. You don't even need RPI for this league. Winning % will do the trick. None the less, RPI will work. But that's 12-1 with 13 teams. D1 Men is 12-1 with 70+ teams. In the 13 team league, teams cannot play the system. They're forced to play every team, for the sake of argument, once at a neutral site. Their and their opponents and their opponent's opponent's records are meaningful. In the 70+ situation, this is very different. Setting aside that the teams actual record has half the value of the record of their opponents, a team can work the system by beating teams with higher winning percentages (and weaker SOSs). Bottomline, the goal is to find the best teams, in order. And RPI doesn't do this. At least, not accurately. For heaven's sake, it's from 1981 and, even in 1981, it was seen as imperfect. In 1981, we were using Mainframe computers and the Apple IIe was still several years away. And now, somehow, it's 2019 and NCAA Lacrosse is still using it. I dunno...

[HopFan16]

This is insanity...

runrussellrun aka fattylax brings up this nonsense every year. Feel free to ignore.

[Homer]

Yup. Although, a Richmond/Jacksonville Sunshine Conf. final would mean THREE teams from that conference would make the n$aa's, based on winning percentage. But, college lacrosse can't have that. 3 teams from one conference. UN heard of
(some laundry is more important than other laundry.....meaning, only three leagues are allowed 3, or more, n$aa invites......just ...well, you know, b/c)
Army better just win out the AQ, because ONLY Loyola can get an at large, no one else from Patriot need apply.......because winning lots of Patriot league regular season games matters not. Right Boston? Yes, lets invite UNC, Rutgers and Hopkins instead. because of ticket sales????????

OK, let's see how this would work out with the current standings. Give the #1 seed in each conference the AQ and then award the AL's based on winning percentage vs. the current conventional wisdom about whom the committee would choose:

Both methods would give AL bids to Virginia, Duke, Yale, and Maryland. The conventional view would give the last four bids to Syracuse, Notre Dame, Cornell, and Towson (or Hopkins, opinions differ, but I personally think Towson is ahead for now). R3 using winning % would give them instead to Georgetown, Army, Hobart, and Delaware.

I note that the GT/Army/Hobart/UD group is currently 0-5 against the Cuse/ND/Cornell/Towson group. (0-4 if you use Hopkins instead.) So far this does not seem to be a good way of identifying actually superior teams.

[runrussellrun]

Are the Boston Bruins in the playoffs b/c of RPI or SOS? nope. How'z about using the most simplist of stats.......WINNING PERCENTAGE. Like professional leagues use. Simple

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/lacrosse-men ... t/team/233

3 CAA teams that have a winning percentage 15 points higher has Hopkins. (awtta be a rule that a team can NOT sit out, uninvited, if an at large team that has a less than 15 point winning percentage lower, gets invited. ) And, the sick thing is, the n$aa makes AQ winners, with better winning %'s, play in non-existent n$aa playoff mid-week games, while lowly at larges get the entire week off. Make the at larges play mid week. Oh, b/c there's an equal "rule" of AQ's vs at larges? Really? who would care? no one.

Hopkins sits 33rd in all of n$aa in winning %, just a few points higher than UNC-heels......and we talk of inviting these teams because they lost "well". Hopkins has the same winning percentage as Holy Cross. Let THAT sink in.
It would be a thing of beauty, to watch Hopkins visit Amherst, MA......but, alas, if ....if they win the b1g, they will host instead? Oh well, it will be Robbie MO versus Canibus in the mid week game that doesn't exist. Only in lacrosse, do we reward losing so much.

This is insanity... win % works in pro sports because they play 82 games... also, every team is a professional franchise. The worst team in the NHL is full of pros. In NCAA lax, they play ~14 games and the disparity between best and worst team is MASSIVE. Wouldn't you rather reward good programs for scheduling other good programs rather than beat up on the St Bonaventures of the world? Isnt that the whole point, to watch competitive lacrosse?

Regarding the play in game, if you think the NEC/MAAC/Socon/AE AQ winners have ANY chance of winning the championship your even more insane. Which team in those conferences is sniffing a final four? Albany is the only one to come anywhere close, and they had an all time great FOGO and a 1st team AA. None of them have anywhere close to that this year. I would much prefer they knock each other out so we can watch the REAL teams that have a REAL chance of winning play each other.

College hockey. Show us a team, an AT LARGE team, in college hockey that got a n$aa invitation that had a winning percentage 15 points lower than teams that sit out. Does it exist?

And, invite 2-4 teams from each of those leagues and see if any of them compete for a championship. Like I have always said, and wouldn't you agree, that these teams that do NOT have a chance would just waste space because they , and only they, would lose games by 12 or 13 goals. Every time. Or, would that be a Hopkins team, invited with a horrible winning percentage?

[runrussellrun]

This is insanity...

runrussellrun aka fattylax brings up this nonsense every year. Feel free to ignore.

Was it a 12 goal n$aa loss last year? Or 13? Tell us, hopkins fan.

[admin]

If the NCAA implemented what you're suggesting, RunR, every (top) team would become an independent and play the weakest 12 teams in D1: Bryant, Monmouth, VMI, Lafayette, Bellarmine, Wagner, NJIT, Binghamton, Dartmouth, Mercer, Hampton, and St. Bonaventure. Heck, they'd schedule 2 bad D3 teams and play the 10 weakest teams, the NCAA minimum of D1 games. The regular season would be unimaginably awful and, come season's end, numerous teams would have 100% winning percentage. With no real way to differentiate between them (because SOS is a non-factor). The Tournament would be composed not of the Top Teams but of the teams that did the best job of scheduling the weakest teams. RunR, I dunno...

Hopfan16, we're aware, we all have our ax to grind, and... I dunno. Hard to believe that he really believes this but, sure enough, every season...

[Hawkeye]

Bottomline, the goal is to find the best teams, in order. And RPI doesn't do this. At least, not accurately.

To move this discussion from the abstract to the concrete, can you give me an examples of some teams that you believe RPI has materially mis-evaluated this season?

[Hawkeye]

This would be a good read for the individuals in this thread who hold more radical views than others. Posted today, on IL.

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ment/54403

[TheBigIguana]

Yup. Although, a Richmond/Jacksonville Sunshine Conf. final would mean THREE teams from that conference would make the n$aa's, based on winning percentage. But, college lacrosse can't have that. 3 teams from one conference. UN heard of
(some laundry is more important than other laundry.....meaning, only three leagues are allowed 3, or more, n$aa invites......just ...well, you know, b/c)
Army better just win out the AQ, because ONLY Loyola can get an at large, no one else from Patriot need apply.......because winning lots of Patriot league regular season games matters not. Right Boston? Yes, lets invite UNC, Rutgers and Hopkins instead. because of ticket sales????????

You really think going 6-2 in the Patriot is comparable to Hopkins going 7-6 vs their schedule? I love the Patriot League but it isn't very strong in the bottom half and should be treated as such. Part of RPI is winning percentage but the purpose of RPI, despite the flaws, is to contextualize winning percentage since using it straight up on 73 teams with widely varying schedules would be silly. Army and BU could beat someone like Duke on their day but toss them into Duke's schedule and I promise they aren't putting up the same record. Loyola can get an at large because they play a murderers row out of conference too.

Your first question is hillaryous......read it out loud. To someone who doesn't know lacrosse. Ask them to defend your statement. And include the Patriot teams ACTUAL record, like you did Hopkins. Army is 11-4. Boston U. beat Loyola, by much....and late season......a team that Hopkins got destroyed by.

And, the second statement is equally hillaryous. Using winning percentage, in "context", is better than real time. Um....ok. And, guessing your thinking that ACC losing to a Sunshine team, twice, was early season fluke syndrone >>>>>>> That Boston or Army would actually WIN some of those on Duke's schedule, instead of lose them. like Duke did. Marquette isn't even in the BIG east playoffs......yet took Duke to OT.

Think man, think. it's 2019. Those youth kids we coached 10 years ago are now coaching too........think man, think.

Boston has lost to Harvard Colgate and Navy. Army doesn't have any bad losses but scheduling NJIT Marist and Binghamton to pad win totals is exactly why win percentage can't be the only stat. I think any college lacrosse fan could tell you those three teams wouldn't be that good. But I'm going to leave this argument because coming from a stance of winning percentage is all that matters in a sport with 73 unique schedules is madness.

What's also funny is I would really love for a second Patriot or Socon or CAA team. But I don't think you can follow this season and think anyone really deserves it from those conferences barring a conference tourney upset. And I'm not going to construct some phony bias this or it's all about money that argument to that end. It's silly.

[Cooter]

Bottomline, the goal is to find the best teams, in order. And RPI doesn't do this. At least, not accurately.

To move this discussion from the abstract to the concrete, can you give me an examples of some teams that you believe RPI has materially mis-evaluated this season?

This will usually be teams that have played strong schedules, because SOS figures in too highly in RPI.
Using the coaches rankings (4 or more differences)
Duke #2 RPI - #6 ranking
Cornell #12 RPI - #8 ranking
High Point #20 RPI - #13 ranking
UMass #19 RPI - #14 ranking
JHU #11 RPI - #15 ranking
Villanova #15 RPI - receiving votes
Maryland, Denver, Towson, Ohio State, UNC are off by 3 spots.

I think last season, Penn had a really high RPI, perhaps top 5, yet near a .500 reccord. A big quality win for a number of teams.

[TheBigIguana]

Bottomline, the goal is to find the best teams, in order. And RPI doesn't do this. At least, not accurately.

To move this discussion from the abstract to the concrete, can you give me an examples of some teams that you believe RPI has materially mis-evaluated this season?

This will usually be teams that have played strong schedules, because SOS figures in too highly in RPI.
Using the coaches rankings (4 or more differences)
Duke #2 RPI - #6 ranking
Cornell #12 RPI - #8 ranking
High Point #20 RPI - #13 ranking
UMass #19 RPI - #14 ranking
JHU #11 RPI - #15 ranking
Villanova #15 RPI - receiving votes
Maryland, Denver, Towson, Ohio State, UNC are off by 3 spots.

I think last season, Penn had a really high RPI, perhaps top 5, yet near a .500 reccord. A big quality win for a number of teams.

Duke should be higher but polls hit teams harder for recent losses and they got dropped. RPI is better.

Cornell is not that good and would be lower if they had started the season lower than the top 10. RPI is better.

High Point got a lot of notoriety for some strong wins and has a couple of bad losses. To me they should be in the middle of the two rankings.

Hopkins have played zero noncompetitive teams. I don't think they are that good but even 1 game above .500 is decent for them. I'd side with RPI.

I don't know enough about UMass or Villanova but generally RPI is a pretty good tool. But it does need context added for a team like Hopkins who is getting a lot of credit for losses to good teams. Notre Dame has perfected playing the system by scheduling only top teams so any above .500 record gets them in. These are obvious problems but short a new metric RPI is a reasonable way of doing it.