Pool B and Pool C

[overandback]

I smell upset tomorrow at RIT.
Go Larries!!!

[billyosier]

I usually go to the NESCAC forum for my crack habit but I see the Bates crack is alive and well right here

Not going to happen... my beloved St. Lawrence has a better chance

Would love to see St. Lawrence get a bid. Big game coming up for them tomorrow.

[billyosier]

I smell upset tomorrow at RIT.
Go Larries!!!

That makes two of us!

Go Saints!

[LaxForNow]

I'm still stuck on/intrigued by Bates who are keeping Wesleyan company in the clubhouse and , despite lopsided loss to Amherst, are ranked #16.
I think there is a simple scenario that gives them a shot.
I could wait 20 hours, but no...

First, assume no upsets - highest seed in relevant tourneys prevail and get AQ.
So 6 of the 8 Pool C bids go to:

Salisbury
Amherst
Williams
Gettysburg
Wesleyan
Union (Refraining from making case that a loss to RPI tomorrow would drop them into group below, and free up a third Pool C bid.)

Lynchburg gets upset in ODAC semis.

Leaving committee to award the remaining pool C bids to two of these five squads...

Current #14 Ursinus - final record 11-4 with loss to F&M in Cent semis
Current #15 Dickinson - final record 11-6 with loss to Gburg in Cent semis 11-6
Current #16 Bates - final record 10-5
Current #18 St Law - Final record 13-4 with loss to RIT in LL semis
Current #20 Lynchburg - Final record 12-6 with loss to Roanoke in ODAC semis


I think Bates has a shot.

I think St. Lawrence would get one of the two based upon their winning percentage
and Lynchburg the other based upon the number of regional wins and regional games

[D-III]

I’ve posted current Pool C’s, brackets, etc..over on Twitter @DIIILacrosse

[Tigerlax70]

I smell upset tomorrow at RIT.
Go Larries!!!

That makes two of us!

Go Saints!

Nope. Another exciting game and St. Lawrence continues to give my Tigers fits, but ultimately talent wins out. Tigers had a bit more. Looked like RIT won the face off battle and scored most of their goals off of transition. To me, based on results, Larries deserve a Pool C, but a loss in the semis and a fairly weak OOC could doom them. Too many quality teams who will miss the AQ and the NESCAC is loaded. My take is LL only gets one Pool C and it will be the loser of the league championship.

[Big Easy Lax]

I'm still stuck on/intrigued by Bates who are keeping Wesleyan company in the clubhouse and , despite lopsided loss to Amherst, are ranked #16.
I think there is a simple scenario that gives them a shot.
I could wait 20 hours, but no...

First, assume no upsets - highest seed in relevant tourneys prevail and get AQ.
So 6 of the 8 Pool C bids go to:

Salisbury
Amherst
Williams
Gettysburg
Wesleyan
Union (Refraining from making case that a loss to RPI tomorrow would drop them into group below, and free up a third Pool C bid.)

Lynchburg gets upset in ODAC semis.

Leaving committee to award the remaining pool C bids to two of these five squads...

Current #14 Ursinus - final record 11-4 with loss to F&M in Cent semis
Current #15 Dickinson - final record 11-6 with loss to Gburg in Cent semis 11-6
Current #16 Bates - final record 10-5
Current #18 St Law - Final record 13-4 with loss to RIT in LL semis
Current #20 Lynchburg - Final record 12-6 with loss to Roanoke in ODAC semis


I think Bates has a shot.

Would be a huge upset for Lynchburg to lose to Roanoke in Semi's as they are playing Hampden-Sydney not Noke!

[suthunlax]

Centennial semifinals: Gettysburg beat Dickinson 15-13 and Ursinus scored two in last minute to beat F&M 12-11. I think Dickinson and F&M are out and Bears need the AQ. Barring a shocking lopsided loss to Ursinus on Saturday, I think the Bullets are in win or lose.

[SpartanLaxFanatic]

Lol Suthunlax, that’s comical. Bears are almost guaranteed Pool C in my opinion. Wins over 6 regionally ranked squads is superb. One bad loss but other two to Top 20 squads. Centennial is getting at least 2 teams, way too good of a league to be just an AQ.
I don’t understand the love for Lynchburg and W&L. Both don’t have great resumes and the ODAC has been a joke this year.

[suthunlax]

Spartan: You may well be right about Ursinus' prospects. They have indeed had a good year, have beaten some excellent teams, and have gotten some great keeping. Thoughts of Neff & Co. from a few years back admittedly crossed my mind more than a few times this season.

Centennial is one of the confs I tend to watch, although this year I haven't seen as many games as I had the past few years. I think Dickinson has some talent but lacks on-field discipline resulting in too many costly mistakes. F&M had a great year, but is heavily reliant on some offensive players who both score a lot of goals and tend to be somewhat impatient with the ball; that impatience cost them dearly in both games against Ursinus. Ursinus tends to be patient on defense because they have a lot of confidence in their #1 goalie, and they tend to be smart with the ball on offense. My concern about Ursinus is that they are heavily reliant on the first 15-18 players, which worked out fine when those players were healthy. I saw the Haverford game and not having 6-7 top players, including starting goalie, hurt them massively against a Haverford team that uncharacteristically played a decent game for the full 60. Ursinus doesn't have a deep reserve of size, skill, and speed like a York, RIT, or SAL, and I think Gettysburg, while not particularly big, has a lot of fairly skilled guys who can run and handle the ball. They will look to ground it out and wear down the Bear middies and defense. The Bears have the advantage in goal and will a need big game from their keeper. If he plays well and the offense gets in the Bullet keeper's head early, Ursinus could take it.

I think coach J and the bullets will want to make a statement and will pressure the Bears hard from the get-go. They have the depth to run hard the full 60; we'll have to see if the Bears first 15 or so will able to keep up after logging a lot of minutes this season and just coming off a nailbiter in the semifinals. IMO, a close game enhances Ursinus' chances for either a victory or a Pool C berth in the event of a loss. If Gettysburg runs away with it, I think it would put a damper on Ursinus' bid chances. Another key will be how the selection cmte views the Stevenson, Cortland, and CNU victories (and possibly the overtime win over UMW) in retrospect.

ODAC: I'm not sold on either W&L or Lynchburg, either. I don't think W&L could hang with York today, and their victories in retrospect aren't the strongest. Lynchburg beat F&M early, don't know how it would go now. Hornets at Mustang Classic beat what we now know wasn't the best team Cantabene has put onto a field and lost a close one to a Wes team that had only begun official practices a couple of weeks earlier.

[overandback]

I’ve posted current Pool C’s, brackets, etc..over on Twitter @DIIILacrosse

DIII,
Salisbury and York are locked in as 1 & 2 seeds in South Bracket and will host the play in games on tuesday, correct?
Looking at 2018 bracket... https://www.ncaa.com/brackets/print/lac ... en/d3/2018
...if GBurg wins Saturday, aren't Bullets in essentially same position as York was last year, and therefore likely to be put in North bracket?
Thanks

[DeepPocket]

I’ve posted current Pool C’s, brackets, etc..over on Twitter @DIIILacrosse

...if GBurg wins Saturday, aren't Bullets in essentially same position as York was last year, and therefore likely to be put in North bracket?
Thanks

Yes. He tweeted that earlier this week.

[overandback]

He was assuming F&M would be the Cent AQ and, therefore, that GBurg's record would be 14-4, and not 15-3 they would have with the AQ.
But then there is Cabrini...

[candyman]

Is there any particular reason why Tufts is ranked above RIT in the regional ranking? At the time the last ranking was released Tufts (15-1 overall) had by my count a regional ranking of 7-1 against regionally ranked opponents

RIT (16-1 overall) at the time the last ranking was released (since has moved to 17-1 overall) and had a record of 9-1 against regionally ranked opponents (now has moved to 10-1).

Does the RIT loss to Amherst (from March 16) bump them behind Tufts? I still can't think that's a good enough reason as RIT has more regionally ranked wins with both teams having 1 loss.

Interesting if this holds Tufts can play and pick up two more regionally ranked wins, RIT can pick up 1 more which would still leave RIT ahead of Tufts in terms of overall record 18-1 vs 17-1 but only 1 game total but 11-1 Regionally ranked wins would still be in favor of RIT (11-1) vs Tufts (9-1).

Also RIT and Tufts from the fanlax strength of schedule has almost the same Strength of schedule with RIT slightly ahead 20 vs 21

[LibertyL]

You are right it is very close and yes (this is from a guy who's handle is Liberty League)- the loss to Amherst
is the reason.

[ColonelFastBreak]

Is there any particular reason why Tufts is ranked above RIT in the regional ranking? At the time the last ranking was released Tufts (15-1 overall) had by my count a regional ranking of 7-1 against regionally ranked opponents

Also RIT and Tufts from the fanlax strength of schedule has almost the same Strength of schedule with RIT slightly ahead 20 vs 21

SOS is a primary criteria for the committee. I'm not sure how FanLax calculates their SOS, perhaps the admin can chime in. If it is determined by their rankings then it shouldn't be used when discussing Pool C since the committee uses a separate SOS formula (2/3rds opponents' winning % + 1/3rd opponents' opponents' winning %). I think, though I am not certain, this is the formula being used by laxbytes.com. They only go out two decimal places, so we can see that both RIT and Tufts have similar SOSs (0.64) but that Tufts' (#5) is ranked higher than RIT (#9). It seems that if you calculated it out beyond the second decimal place you would start to see a difference.

Another primary criteria is results vs. common opponents. Tufts' win over Amherst is compared to RIT's loss. Simple as that.

The committee would have to decide that RIT's extra regionally ranked wins outweigh the combination of Tufts' stronger SOS and advantageous common opponent result criteria. It's possible, but, judging by past decision, it seems unlikely.

[RedFromMI]

Is there any particular reason why Tufts is ranked above RIT in the regional ranking? At the time the last ranking was released Tufts (15-1 overall) had by my count a regional ranking of 7-1 against regionally ranked opponents

Also RIT and Tufts from the fanlax strength of schedule has almost the same Strength of schedule with RIT slightly ahead 20 vs 21

SOS is a primary criteria for the committee. I'm not sure how FanLax calculates their SOS, perhaps the admin can chime in. If it is determined by their rankings then it shouldn't be used when discussing Pool C since the committee uses a separate SOS formula (2/3rds opponents' winning % + 1/3rd opponents' opponents' winning %). I think, though I am not certain, this is the formula being used by laxbytes.com. They only go out two decimal places, so we can see that both RIT and Tufts have similar SOSs (0.64) but that Tufts' (#5) is ranked higher than RIT (#9). It seems that if you calculated it out beyond the second decimal place you would start to see a difference.

Another primary criteria is results vs. common opponents. Tufts' win over Amherst is compared to RIT's loss. Simple as that.

The committee would have to decide that RIT's extra regionally ranked wins outweigh the combination of Tufts' stronger SOS and advantageous common opponent result criteria. It's possible, but, judging by past decision, it seems unlikely.

You can get the actual data that the NCAA uses at ncaa.com - go to https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/lacrosse- ... l-rankings, and at the bottom of the regional ranking page you will find links to North Region and South Region. These links generate the spreadsheets used by the committees. According to the pre-championship manual, on pages 14-16 (https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/champi ... Manual.pdf) you can find the full criteria list. Criteria like head-to-head and common opponent results are impossible to put into a single spreadsheet so they are not there, but three primary criteria and one secondary one is included: primary are Overall DIII W/L pct, results (win %) vs DIII ranked opponents, and in division SOS (the one you are discussing). The secondary inclusion is overall w/l %.

So for RIT: DIII w/l % = .941, ranked opponents w/l % = .900, and SOS is .638. Secondary is .941
for Tufts: DIII w/l % = .938, ranked opponents w/l % = .875, and SOS is .645. Secondary is .938

Follow the links and you can get overwhelmed with numbers...

[candyman]

Thanks Red and Fastbreak for clarification, could not find SOS outside of Fan lax in a brief search earlier. Makes sense to me but still feel like an extra regionally ranked win would be advantageous for RIT but to your point and Criteria that Amherst loss where Tufts beat them is reason enough.

Not an RIT guy just something I figured was worth mentioning

[Dehuntshigwa’es]

3 nescac’s 1 Centennial, 1 CAC, Union plus 2 others of which I have no idea. Just hoping 1 is from the ODAC!

[D-III]

He was assuming F&M would be the Cent AQ and, therefore, that GBurg's record would be 14-4, and not 15-3 they would have with the AQ.
But then there is Cabrini...

Just replace Gettysburg with where I have F&M and put Ursinus in the two scenarios I previously laid out for Gettysburg.