Army versus Penn State Quarterfinals

[Finster]

I’ll take Army in a mini upset

[10stone5]

Penn State has met any number of goals this year, are they motivated enough still to take it to the Final Four and beyond
that ?

Army looked incredibly energized in that Maryland game, they more than made up for any missing players.
Could be they were motivated more than just facing off against the defending champs, Army hadn’t won an NCAA game since 2010, they haven’t been to a Final Four since 1984.

[lorin]

Penn State has met any number of goals this year, are they motivated enough still to take it to the Final Four and beyond
that ?

Army looked incredibly energized in that Maryland game, they more than made up for any missing players.
Could be they were motivated more than just facing off against the defending champs, Army hadn’t won an NCAA game since 2010, they haven’t been to a Final Four since 1984.

For Army coach its pretty easy to motivate players , tell them win another game and you get off base and sleep in a nice hotel bed.

[youthathletics]

Army by 2

Advantage Army at F/O
Advantage Army Goalie - Army defense allows far few shots on goal, so goalie has fewer saves to make.

Much like the UMD game where they needed to win in transition, so does PSU.

[coda]

Army by 2

Advantage Army at F/O
Advantage Army Goalie - Army defense allows far few shots on goal, so goalie has fewer saves to make.

Much like the UMD game where they needed to win in transition, so does PSU.

Fraycon is #3 in the country at 57.3% save percentage
Dent is at 53.9%

This is not a game, where Army has the Goalie advantage. Who knows how they play on Saturday, but Fraycon is the best goalie left in the tournament.

[youthathletics]

Army by 2

Advantage Army at F/O
Advantage Army Goalie - Army defense allows far few shots on goal, so goalie has fewer saves to make.

Much like the UMD game where they needed to win in transition, so does PSU.

Fraycon is #3 in the country at 57.3% save percentage
Dent is at 53.9%

This is not a game, where Army has the Goalie advantage. Who knows how they play on Saturday, but Fraycon is the best goalie left in the tournament.

Short sighted IMO. Dent sees fewer shots, which was my point above about the Army Defense being stingy, so I believe PSU defense must be buttoned up real tight and the Fraycon has to have a game like he did against Rutgers and Michigan >60%

[coda]

Army by 2

Advantage Army at F/O
Advantage Army Goalie - Army defense allows far few shots on goal, so goalie has fewer saves to make.

Much like the UMD game where they needed to win in transition, so does PSU.

Fraycon is #3 in the country at 57.3% save percentage
Dent is at 53.9%

This is not a game, where Army has the Goalie advantage. Who knows how they play on Saturday, but Fraycon is the best goalie left in the tournament.

Short sighted IMO. Dent sees fewer shots, which was my point above about the Army Defense being stingy, so I believe PSU defense must be buttoned up real tight and the Fraycon has to have a game like he did against Rutgers and Michigan >60%

I think you are conflating goalie and defensive play with possessions. Army goalie does see about 5 less shots on goal. A big portion of that is due to possessions. Army is winning faceoffs at 61% vs 46.6% for Penn State. Lax Ref has Penn State with a slightly higher defensive efficiency than Army (Massey also) and I already pointed out the goalie difference. Army and Penn State have 4 common opponents (Cornell, Maryland, Lafayette, and Rutgers). In those games Army has given up 48 goals vs 35 for Penn State.

[Hoxwurth]

Penn State just beat a surging Princeton team. Princeton, not Michigan, was the hottest team in the country. In 3 out of 4 losses, Penn State had a significant faceoff deficit. Penn State also won a couple of games with similar deficits.

Don't think Army can paint corners again like they did against Maryland. If I were Penn State, I'd strongly consider employing that zone against Army.

[molo]

Both these teams have had better years than people expected to see from them back in February. A predictably tough SA team, Army features a dangerous outside as well. Penn State, like three other Big 10 teams, has their share of significant wins. Every time I watch Army I come away thinking, “Gee, they’re a lot better than I thought they were.” When I see PSU,I think they can play with anybody but haven’t really separated themselves from the pack.
The higher seeded team deserves to be a slight favorite and should be able to prevail. Then I remember 2019, when PSU was regarded the best team all season. They didn’t last a quarter in Philly.
One coach has more experience in postseason games. The other is pushing for his first FF. Penn State should get by in a close one 14-12.

[ExLax]

Both these teams have had better years than people expected to see from them back in February. A predictably tough SA team, Army features a dangerous outside as well. Penn State, like three other Big 10 teams, has their share of significant wins. Every time I watch Army I come away thinking, “Gee, they’re a lot better than I thought they were.” When I see PSU,I think they can play with anybody but haven’t really separated themselves from the pack.
The higher seeded team deserves to be a slight favorite and should be able to prevail. Then I remember 2019, when PSU was regarded the best team all season. They didn’t last a quarter in Philly.
One coach has more experience in postseason games. The other is pushing for his first FF. Penn State should get by in a close one 14-12.

Good analysis and can't argue on 1) higher seed, or 2) the last line on coaching experience - will take Army West Point +2 on one line and then even up on the other. Goalie play, face off, and man up / down will be the obvious differentiators.

Could be a pay day - or a shellacking - yet hope for a good day for both teams! Love this time of year and our sport.

[10stone5]

These teams haven’t played each other in 20 years,
since Penn State was an independent,
___________

army.png (75.44 KiB) Viewed 1208 times

[faircornell]

Personally, I'll be pulling for Army. I am, however, skeptical that they can rise to a repeat performance of what they achieved versus Maryland. PSU looked cool under pressure, and came back to win against a really strong Princeton team.

I agree with the comment about PSU being wise to implement their zone. Still, Army is an extremely well conditioned squad that has surprising depth. I guess that one cannot count them out.

[WaffleTwineFaceoff]

I'll join you rooting for the Black Knights. Would be great to see them in the FF.

[coda]

Personally, I'll be pulling for Army. I am, however, skeptical that they can rise to a repeat performance of what they achieved versus Maryland. PSU looked cool under pressure, and came back to win against a really strong Princeton team.

I agree with the comment about PSU being wise to implement their zone. Still, Army is an extremely well conditioned squad that has surprising depth. I guess that one cannot count them out.

Not to take anything away from Army, but they were greatly aided by a terrible performance by Ruppel. Army was out-shot 47 to 32.. Shots on goal were 31 to 21. Ruppel only saved 5 shots (24%). Dent was 16-31 (52%). I do not think Army will get that luxury in this game, as Fracyon is one of the best in the nation. (Though PSU did benefit from an uncharacteristic 38% save day from Gianforcaro, so predicting Goalie play is always tough)

[Turnandrake]

I’ll take Army in a mini upset

Saw both teams play in person this spring. Think Army wins by 3

[Finster]

I’ll take Army in a mini upset

Saw both teams play in person this spring. Think Army wins by 3

I like their chances.

[BlueJaySince1947]

Yep...Army wins easily !

[51percentcorn]

Here's my public service announcement for Penn State Army fans - pack up the breakfast burritos and bloody's and get there early and consult friends/google maps for the best route etc. I remember going early in '18 for the Hopkins tailgate - they had the later game and just thought Rowe Blvd would be OK and what a S-show. Many Maryland/Cornell fans missed part of the first game. IIRC correctly - only one ticket window section was open so lines were not short. Maybe they have it all buttoned up by now but if watching the entirety of the first game is important to you - plan accordingly.

[youthathletics]

Here's my public service announcement for Penn State Army fans - pack up the breakfast burritos and bloody's and get there early and consult friends/google maps for the best route etc. I remember going early in '18 for the Hopkins tailgate - they had the later game and just thought Rowe Blvd would be OK and what a S-show. Many Maryland/Cornell fans missed part of the first game. IIRC correctly - only one ticket window section was open so lines were not short. Maybe they have it all buttoned up by now but if watching the entirety of the first game is important to you - plan accordingly.

Still only one ticket window with about 6-8 booths. It goes fast, at the booth they also send the tickets to your cell phone...assuming they are also doing this for the NCAA games. Just get them before you arrive or have someone get them for you and transfer to you.

[The Orfling]

Penn State just beat a surging Princeton team. Princeton, not Michigan, was the hottest team in the country. In 3 out of 4 losses, Penn State had a significant faceoff deficit. Penn State also won a couple of games with similar deficits.

Don't think Army can paint corners again like they did against Maryland. If I were Penn State, I'd strongly consider employing that zone against Army.

That's a great point about the PSU zone. Going to it was the difference in the Princeton game, imo. It's really good; they play it consistently throughout the season and have mastered it; and it offers an ability to stop a team with big-time offensive momentum in its tracks. And if Fracyon's seeing the ball well (as he usually does) it can feel doubly stifling.

Army has the better FOGO -- if they can get clean face-off wins and push the ball they may be able to get great shots in transition before PSU sets up. But PSU has gotten pretty good at preventing transition goals off the face-off.

This feels like a bit of a "pick 'em" game -- fun match-up.