North Carolina 2023

[Lewisfrederick]

I also hate to admit this… but the only good year JB has had since 2016… the Ivy League wasn’t even playing.

[Exlaxbro]

I also hate to admit this… but the only good year JB has had since 2016… the Ivy League wasn’t even playing.

And they barely got in that year. Got hot at the right time.

[wgdsr]

I also hate to admit this… but the only good year JB has had since 2016… the Ivy League wasn’t even playing.

And they barely got in that year. Got hot at the right time.

they were the #1 seed. that was 2 years ago.

[Exlaxbro]

I also hate to admit this… but the only good year JB has had since 2016… the Ivy League wasn’t even playing.

And they barely got in that year. Got hot at the right time.

they were the #1 seed. that was 2 years ago.

I meant 2016 was when they barely got in. They got hot and won it all but arguably should not have gotten in.

[Farfromgeneva]

Just saw this and wanted to share. Posted by The Crosse Commission on twitter back on May 6 (before this decision was made, and during our game against ND).

https://twitter.com/College_Crosse/stat ... 0667802625

UNC’s last 4 games against Duke/UVA/ND. Win against any one gets them in the tournament

7 goal loss
7 goal loss
7 goal loss
10 goal deficit (right now)

UNC 2022 April-onwards against the ACC, when they were in the Top 10 and in contention for a tournament spot

9 goal L to Duke
7 goal L to UVA
7 goal L to ND
8 goal L to Duke

8 games from basically April onward against Duke/UVA/ND last 2 years and they are -62 in those 8 games

UNC since 2018 in last week of March onwards ACC/NCAAT games is 9-18. 5 of those 9 wins came in 2021.

This will be their 5th full season of the last 6 since the championship with 7 or 8 wins. ACC record since 2016 is 9-21. This will be their 4th missed tournament in 5 years

In a profession that does not always attract people who live up to its stated ideals or what it’s noblest goals are, Joe Breschi surpasses each and every one of them. He‘s probably the finest guy out there.

But at some point, man, this is one of the crown jewel programs of the sport. You’ve got every resource available to you that you could want at that job. This can’t be what the standard is at that job. Your peers are not just lapping you, they’re running a different race.

Breschi made the tournament every year from 2009-17 and only once since. Without 2021, Breschi doesn't get the extension today.

The point about the peer schools is important. In fairness to Breschi, UNC coaches have stuggled in the ACC since 1991.

That’s the point I had made previously. The Haus era was far worse and the tail end before not great so it’s 3 decades of this. Like Army belaboring not being a FBS contender anymore. (That’s an extreme comparison maybe a better would be Ga Tech where I’m close thinking their relevant in football because they shared a title in 1990-91)

[Farfromgeneva]

Just saw this and wanted to share. Posted by The Crosse Commission on twitter back on May 6 (before this decision was made, and during our game against ND).

https://twitter.com/College_Crosse/stat ... 0667802625

UNC’s last 4 games against Duke/UVA/ND. Win against any one gets them in the tournament

7 goal loss
7 goal loss
7 goal loss
10 goal deficit (right now)

UNC 2022 April-onwards against the ACC, when they were in the Top 10 and in contention for a tournament spot

9 goal L to Duke
7 goal L to UVA
7 goal L to ND
8 goal L to Duke

8 games from basically April onward against Duke/UVA/ND last 2 years and they are -62 in those 8 games

UNC since 2018 in last week of March onwards ACC/NCAAT games is 9-18. 5 of those 9 wins came in 2021.

This will be their 5th full season of the last 6 since the championship with 7 or 8 wins. ACC record since 2016 is 9-21. This will be their 4th missed tournament in 5 years

In a profession that does not always attract people who live up to its stated ideals or what it’s noblest goals are, Joe Breschi surpasses each and every one of them. He‘s probably the finest guy out there.

But at some point, man, this is one of the crown jewel programs of the sport. You’ve got every resource available to you that you could want at that job. This can’t be what the standard is at that job. Your peers are not just lapping you, they’re running a different race.

Sharing this after he was just extended for three years? That’s a lose / lose proposition for UNC fans who want a head to roll. Either you’re correct and it sucks for a while or you were wrong and lose the ability to trust your own judgment with respect to your program.

I just saw it for the first time today... and idk why it is a lose/lose proposition. Non-UNC fans seem confused as to why so many UNC fans want Breschi gone, and I think this perfectly shows that we are miles behind our peers.
Also, I am just quoting what this person said... not saying he is correct or not. Seems to me that all but the last two paragraphs are facts that can't really be disputed.

Facts or data in isolation of analysis including the environment though. Somebody has to be at the bottom and the rise of ND and Duke since the 90s has really cut into UNC. Same w GTown who was irrelevant before Urick got there in 1995. But specific to ACC you’ve got two programs that weren’t peers then now in conference so any comparison should take that fact into consideration as well.

[Farfromgeneva]

since 2016, unc has made 2 final fours, something only 4 other programs have done.

since 2016, unc has won the national championship, something only 3 other programs have done.

there are over 70 programs in division 1.

That's why he got the first extension. If you're still using the title as justification for another extension then the period between the two extensions probably wasn't good and you're not very far off from arguing for lifetime appointments for title winners. What if they go another three years without making a tournament? You moving on then? He'll still have won the title in 2016, that's not changing.

Missing the tourney more often than not in a 7-year stretch and more recently getting throttled in every non-Syracuse ACC game...I can see why some alums are upset they're not letting the contract expire and trying someone else out. But at UNC it seems you can rest on previous accomplishment longer than at some of their peer programs, three of which have made changes in the last handful of years and all three look like they're on upward trajectories from where the last guy left them.

21 and he can’t be held accountable for Covid in 20.

[Farfromgeneva]

Just saw this and wanted to share. Posted by The Crosse Commission on twitter back on May 6 (before this decision was made, and during our game against ND).

https://twitter.com/College_Crosse/stat ... 0667802625

UNC’s last 4 games against Duke/UVA/ND. Win against any one gets them in the tournament

7 goal loss
7 goal loss
7 goal loss
10 goal deficit (right now)

UNC 2022 April-onwards against the ACC, when they were in the Top 10 and in contention for a tournament spot

9 goal L to Duke
7 goal L to UVA
7 goal L to ND
8 goal L to Duke

8 games from basically April onward against Duke/UVA/ND last 2 years and they are -62 in those 8 games

UNC since 2018 in last week of March onwards ACC/NCAAT games is 9-18. 5 of those 9 wins came in 2021.

This will be their 5th full season of the last 6 since the championship with 7 or 8 wins. ACC record since 2016 is 9-21. This will be their 4th missed tournament in 5 years

In a profession that does not always attract people who live up to its stated ideals or what it’s noblest goals are, Joe Breschi surpasses each and every one of them. He‘s probably the finest guy out there.

But at some point, man, this is one of the crown jewel programs of the sport. You’ve got every resource available to you that you could want at that job. This can’t be what the standard is at that job. Your peers are not just lapping you, they’re running a different race.

since 2016, unc has made 2 final fours, something only 4 other programs have done.

since 2016, unc has won the national championship, the biggest of all prizes. something only 3 other programs have done.

there are over 70 programs in division 1.

No one is disputing Breschi up too 2016, the issue is since 2016.

2017) 8-8, 1-3 in ACC, Lost First Round
2018) 7-7, 1-3 in ACC, Missed NCAA
2019) 8-7, 1-3 in ACC, Missed NCAA
2021) 13-3, 4-2 in ACC, Final Four
2022) 8-6, 1-5 in ACC, Missed Tournament
2023) 7-7, 1-5 in ACC, Missed Tournament

Feels like the 2021 season was the anomaly. If Chris Gray hadn't transferred, likely would have been more of the same.
This isn't a bad year or two, this is a trend.

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/team/unc/2020

[Farfromgeneva]

I also hate to admit this… but the only good year JB has had since 2016… the Ivy League wasn’t even playing.

And they barely got in that year. Got hot at the right time.

they were the #1 seed. that was 2 years ago.

I meant 2016 was when they barely got in. They got hot and won it all but arguably should not have gotten in.

The Ivy League didn’t take 2016 off.

[HopFan16]

since 2016, unc has made 2 final fours, something only 4 other programs have done.

since 2016, unc has won the national championship, something only 3 other programs have done.

there are over 70 programs in division 1.

That's why he got the first extension. If you're still using the title as justification for another extension then the period between the two extensions probably wasn't good and you're not very far off from arguing for lifetime appointments for title winners. What if they go another three years without making a tournament? You moving on then? He'll still have won the title in 2016, that's not changing.

Missing the tourney more often than not in a 7-year stretch and more recently getting throttled in every non-Syracuse ACC game...I can see why some alums are upset they're not letting the contract expire and trying someone else out. But at UNC it seems you can rest on previous accomplishment longer than at some of their peer programs, three of which have made changes in the last handful of years and all three look like they're on upward trajectories from where the last guy left them.

21 and he can’t be held accountable for Covid in 20.

21 was a great year. 17, 18, 19, 22, and 23 weren't. Do you reset the clock after 21 or do you go by the trend line? UNC is giving him more time but there's a reasonable argument to go with the downward direction of the graph. Giving the 3-year extension instead of the usual 5-year is screaming out that there won't be another one if the trend holds.

[Farfromgeneva]

since 2016, unc has made 2 final fours, something only 4 other programs have done.

since 2016, unc has won the national championship, something only 3 other programs have done.

there are over 70 programs in division 1.

That's why he got the first extension. If you're still using the title as justification for another extension then the period between the two extensions probably wasn't good and you're not very far off from arguing for lifetime appointments for title winners. What if they go another three years without making a tournament? You moving on then? He'll still have won the title in 2016, that's not changing.

Missing the tourney more often than not in a 7-year stretch and more recently getting throttled in every non-Syracuse ACC game...I can see why some alums are upset they're not letting the contract expire and trying someone else out. But at UNC it seems you can rest on previous accomplishment longer than at some of their peer programs, three of which have made changes in the last handful of years and all three look like they're on upward trajectories from where the last guy left them.

21 and he can’t be held accountable for Covid in 20.

21 was a great year. 17, 18, 19, 22, and 23 weren't. Do you reset the clock after 21 or do you go by the trend line? UNC is giving him more time but there's a reasonable argument to go with the downward direction of the graph. Giving the 3-year extension instead of the usual 5-year is screaming out that there won't be another one if the trend holds.

A. Following trend lines is basically voodoo math, Amin to equity technical analysis.
B. Following the trend line should look back 25yrs to cut across staffs.

[jrn19]

Why would you go back 25 years. The sport has completely changed. You don’t make decisions on what happened in 1998.

Is the argument here supposed to be that UNC is just a bad program doomed to be mediocre forever because of John Haus’ results? If that’s the case then just give Breschi a lifetime contract, he’s meeting expectations.

[Farfromgeneva]

Why would you go back 25 years. The sport has completely changed. You don’t make decisions on what happened in 1998.

Is the argument here supposed to be that UNC is just a bad program doomed to be mediocre forever because of John Haus’ results? If that’s the case then just give Breschi a lifetime contract, he’s meeting expectations.

Nobody said lifetime employment or that’s it’s a bad program, that’s a heuristic to propose a binary when there’s a spectrum, just people need to get real about tiny non revenue sports. Useful to try to shorthand and win a debate but not rooted in actual logic or evidence we can observe.

My point is what is the proof UNC in the current environment is underperforming? Maybe some of the success stopped because the tutors couldn’t help kids do their schoolwork anymore. What we do know is they’re conference is a lot more difficult than it was around them. Claims of natural superiority have no basis in evidence today other than what Breschi has accomplished. You do understand the logic of this. They could move form a Breschi and end up with the next Bill Dirrygl.

[10stone5]

Carolina is more similar to Princeton than the other ACC title holders, or Maryland, or Hopkins.

Aside from the Tierney years, Princeton is a contender, competitive, but hasn’t really threatened to win a national title.

Most of UNCs major success was compressed in that decade or so Willy Scroggs era — 4 national titles, 22 of UNCs NCAA wins were during that stretch.

Breschi has been as good or better as any UNC coach, including Klarmann.

Willie Scroggs is of course the extreme outlier,
that guy was unreal.

Breschi is not as good as Tiffany, he’s not as good as Tillman, he’s not as good as Danowski — but Breschi is on par with Corrigan.

He got the extension.
Let’s see what happens with that, nothing will get settled now or even this year.

[Farfromgeneva]

Carolina is more similar to Princeton than the other ACC title holders, or Maryland, or Hopkins.

Aside from the Tierney years, Princeton is a contender, competitive, but hasn’t really threatened to win a national title.

Most of UNCs major success was compressed in that decade or so Willy Scroggs era — 4 national titles, 22 of UNCs NCAA wins were during that stretch.

Breschi has been as good or better as any UNC coach, including Klarmann.

Willie Scroggs is of course the extreme outlier,
that guy was unreal.

Breschi is not as good as Tiffany, he’s not as good as Tillman, he’s not as good as Danowski — but Breschi is on par with Corrigan.

He got the extension.
Let’s see what happens with that, nothing will get settled now or even this year.

Makes sense to me.

[jrn19]

"Breschi is on par with Corrigan"

Since Breschi got to Carolina (2009), here is the track record between Carolina and Notre Dame

Championships
UNC: 1
ND: 0

Final Fours
UNC: 2
ND: 5

Quarterfinals
UNC: 6
ND: 11

NCAA Tournament appearances
UNC: 10
ND: 13

NCAA Tournament wins
UNC: 10
ND: 18

Winning percentage
UNC: 66.5%
ND: 70.5%

Conference record since 2014 when ND joined ACC
UNC: 17-26
ND: 26-17

H2H: 9-6 Notre Dame

Since Breschi's championship, Corrigan has 4 Quarterfinals to Breschi's 1, 4 NCAA Tournament wins to Breschi's 2, 5 NCAA Tournaments to Breschi's 2, and the H2H is 5-3 Notre Dame. Breschi has made the Final Four once and Corrigan hasn't since 2015

Those...don't look like two coaches on par to me. That looks like one coach is clearly better than the other. If you want to say Breschi has proved he can win a championship and Corrigan has not, fair, but...why isn't he winning nearly as much? If we're doing the 25 year trend and history thing, wasn't like Notre Dame was making a ton of Final Fours 25 years ago. It's not like Notre Dame is far easier to recruit to than North Carolina. Not like admissions standards are different there or anything. And yet one guy has more than double the Final Fours, almost double the Quarterfinals, almost double the NCAAT wins, and is way better in the same league.

Listen, if Carolina believes that it's not at the level of Syracuse, Maryland, Hopkins, Virginia, or Duke in terms of what it's able to achieve, then I certainly understand keeping Breschi. But Breschi himself has achieved far more than what he's been doing the last 6-7 years and is no longer doing that. He still recruits at a very, very high level; the school recruits itself. And Maryland was told a lot of these same things when they let go of Cottle. That the track record was what it was, Maryland was a Quarterfinal program not a Final Four or Championship one, you're making a mistake giving up on the sure thing. Does that mean UNC would get the same results as MD did? Of course not. But just because UNC wasn't good with John Haus - who's record is very similar to Breschi's over the last 6-7 years - doesn't mean they can't achieve more. We've seen them do it very recently. And admitting to your fans that you don't view yourselves on par with those schools...probably isn't going to sit well with the fans.

There's no guarantee a new coach would have been the right move and if they didn't have a good name in mind to go after, yeah, certainly reasons to keep Breschi. But it's not hard to see where UNC fans' frustration comes from. They haven't been anywhere near as good as their rivals for 6-7 years and the school just said we're okay with that. Or...maybe they aren't, because they gave him a 3 year deal and not 5, so they are going to need to give him a new contract again in 2 years and are sending him out there to recruit high school players with no contract that guarantees he will be there for the duration of their college career. In which case, if you aren't confident enough in him long term to give him a 5 year deal...why are you extending him? The way it played out, I get where some UNC fans would want a change. Doesn't mean it would have worked out. There are no guarantees.

[BryanLax]

Carolina is more similar to Princeton than the other ACC title holders, or Maryland, or Hopkins.

Aside from the Tierney years, Princeton is a contender, competitive, but hasn’t really threatened to win a national title.

Most of UNCs major success was compressed in that decade or so Willy Scroggs era — 4 national titles, 22 of UNCs NCAA wins were during that stretch.

Breschi has been as good or better as any UNC coach, including Klarmann.

Willie Scroggs is of course the extreme outlier,
that guy was unreal.

Breschi is not as good as Tiffany, he’s not as good as Tillman, he’s not as good as Danowski — but Breschi is on par with Corrigan.

He got the extension.
Let’s see what happens with that, nothing will get settled now or even this year.

UNC made 18 Quarterfinals appearances over 21 years. You could argue that most of Duke's success has happened over a shorter period of time.
Let's ask a more important question, what is UNC missing that they had in the 80s and early 90s? Do we lack recruiting? Facilities? Brand?

You could make this same argument about Georgia football before they hired Kirby Smart. Just because they had underperformed for decades doesn't mean that there program is incapable of becoming elite again. There is nothing structurally about UNC that prevents them from being as elite as Maryland, Duke or UVA.

[BryanLax]

UNC is an elite program that has won 5 National Championships with 3 different head coaches and been to 14 Final Fours in 4 different decades. UNC has been one of the most elite programs in the country every year since 1976, with the exception of a 10 year stretch from 1997-2006 and the last 7 years since 2017.
I hate it when people act like these last 7 seasons is the historical norm at UNC. From 1976-1996, UNC was a top 3 program in the country. We struggled from 1997-2006, however lets not act like that decade should be viewed as the standard. From 2007-2016 UNC was a top 5-8 program in the country again. Since 2017 we have fallen drastically.

Here is UNC's NCAA tournament seed every year since 1976. I will be the first to admit tournament seeding is not perfect, but I hate it when people say UNC was only an elite program for a decade. Cause that simply isn't true.

1976 - 5 Seed
1977 - 7 Seed
1978 - N/A
1979 - N/A
1980 - 5 Seed
1981 - 2 Seed
1982 - 1 Seed
1983 - 5 Seed
1984 - 5 Seed
1985 - 3 Seed
1986 - 5 Seed
1987 - 5 Seed
1988 - 3 Seed
1989 - 6 Seed
1990 - 4 Seed
1991 - 1 Seed
1992 - 2 Seed
1993 - 1 Seed
1994 - 4 Seed
1995 - Unseeded
1996 - 4 Seed
1997 - N/A
1998 - Unseeded
1999 - N/A
2000 - N/A
2001 - N/A
2002 - N/A
2003 - N/A
2004 - 8 Seed
2005 - N/A
2006 - N/A
2007 - 8 Seed
2008 - 4 Seed
2009 - 6 Seed
2010 - 4 Seed
2011 - 8 Seed
2012 - 8 Seed
2013 - 5 Seed
2014 - Unseeded
2015 - 3 Seed
2016 - Unseeded
2017 - Unseeded
2018 - N/A
2019 - N/A
2021 - 1 Seed
2022 - N/A
2023 - N/A

Many UNC fans rightfully don't believe we should be settling for the standard set the last 7 years when we are clearly capable of being better then that.

[pcowlax]

Interesting discussion. Someone earlier was pointing out the great (based on recruit rankings) classes Breschi has continued to bring in as evidence of his ongoing prowess. Others have pointed out those classes and the lack of commensurate results as evidence of his inability to develop players. I am right there with anyone who questions recruit rankings and stars. Yet there is also a lot to say that the other schools that consistently get the top ranked classes have the best results and many of those players becoming stars and AAs. Clearly, it is possible to recruit to UNC and not just by Breschi. What has changed since the 80s and 90s? Ask Hopkins that question. You now have more than 4 or 5 schools in the country who really care about winning at lacrosse and most of them have the resources to make it happen. That’s what has changed. You need to keep upping your game to even stay at the level of occasionally competing for a title, let alone be a perennial contender. For what ever reason, doesn’t seem to be happening in Chapel Hill.

[BryanLax]

Interesting discussion. Someone earlier was pointing out the great (based on recruit rankings) classes Breschi has continued to bring in as evidence of his ongoing prowess. Others have pointed out those classes and the lack of commensurate results as evidence of his inability to develop players. I am right there with anyone who questions recruit rankings and stars. Yet there is also a lot to say that the other schools that consistently get the top ranked classes have the best results and many of those players becoming stars and AAs. Clearly, it is possible to recruit to UNC and not just by Breschi. What has changed since the 80s and 90s? Ask Hopkins that question. You now have more than 4 or 5 schools in the country who really care about winning at lacrosse and most of them have the resources to make it happen. That’s what has changed. You need to keep upping your game to even stay at the level of occasionally competing for a title, let alone be a perennial contender. For what ever reason, doesn’t seem to be happening in Chapel Hill.

I agree. We need to keep upping our game. The issue is that we have been in all aspects, EXCEPT coaching. Look at our facilities! Easily the best in the ACC... maybe even the country. We are heavily invested into this program, except we are unwilling to up our game where it matters most... and that is coaching.